Health Economic Analysis of Antiviral Drugs in the Global Polio Eradication Endgame.

BACKGROUND: Polio antiviral drugs (PAVDs) may provide a critical tool in the eradication endgame by stopping poliovirus infections in immunodeficient individuals who may not clear the virus without therapeutic intervention. Although prolonged/chronic poliovirus excreters are rare, they represent a source of poliovirus reintroduction into the general population. Prior studies that assumed the successful cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use estimated the potential upper bound of the incremental net benefits (INBs) of resource investments in research and development of PAVDs. However, delays in polio eradication, OPV cessation, and the development of PAVDs necessitate an updated economic analysis to reevaluate the costs and benefits of further investments in PAVDs. METHODS: Using a global integrated model of polio transmission, immunity, vaccine dynamics, risks, and economics, we explore the risks of reintroduction of polio transmission due to immunodeficiency-related vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters and reevaluate the upper bound of the INBs of PAVDs. RESULTS: Under the current conditions, for which the use of OPV will likely continue for the foreseeable future, even with successful eradication of type 1 wild poliovirus by the end of 2023 and continued use of Sabin OPV for outbreak response, we estimate an upper bound INB of 60 million US$2019. With >100 million US$2019 already invested in PAVD development and with the introduction of novel OPVs that are less likely to revert to neurovirulence, our analysis suggests the expected INBs of PAVDs would not offset their costs. CONCLUSIONS: While PAVDs could play an important role in the polio endgame, their expected economic benefits drop with ongoing OPV use and poliovirus transmissions. However, stakeholders may pursue the development of PAVDs as a desired product regardless of their economic benefits.HighlightsWhile polio antiviral drugs could play an important role in the polio endgame, their expected economic benefits continue to drop with delays in polio eradication and the continued use of oral poliovirus vaccines.The incremental net benefits of investments in polio antiviral drug development and screening for immunodeficiency-related circulating polioviruses are small.Limited global resources are better spent on increasing global population immunity to polioviruses to stop and prevent poliovirus transmission.

Poliovirus outbreak in New York State, August 2022: qualitative assessment of immediate public health responses and priorities for improving vaccine coverage.

In 2022, a case of paralysis was reported in an unvaccinated adult in Rockland County (RC), New York. Genetically linked detections of vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) were reported in multiple New York counties, England, Israel, and Canada. The aims of this qualitative study were to: i) review immediate public health responses in New York to assess the challenges in addressing gaps in vaccination coverage; ii) inform a longer-term strategy to improving vaccination coverage in under-vaccinated communities, and iii) collect data to support comparative evaluations of transnational poliovirus outbreaks. Twenty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted with public health professionals, healthcare professionals, and community partners. Results indicate that i) addressing suboptimal vaccination coverage in RC remains a significant challenge after recent disease outbreaks; ii) the poliovirus outbreak was not unexpected and effort should be invested to engage mothers, the key decision-makers on childhood vaccination; iii) healthcare providers (especially paediatricians) received technical support during the outbreak, and may require resources and guidance to effectively contribute to longer-term vaccine engagement strategies; vi) data systems strengthening is required to help track under-vaccinated children. Public health departments should prioritize long-term investments in appropriate communication strategies, countering misinformation, and promoting the importance of the routine immunization schedule.

Assessment of open data kit mobile technology adoption to enhance reporting of supportive supervision conducted for oral poliovirus vaccine supplementary immunization activities in Nigeria, March 2017-February 2020.

Introduction: in Nigeria, supportive supervision of Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIA) is a quality improvement strategy for providing support to vaccination teams administering the poliovirus vaccines to children under 5 years of age. Supervision activities were initially reported in paper forms. This had significant limitations, which led to Open Data Kit (ODK) technology being adopted in March 2017. A review was conducted to assess the impact of ODK for supervision reporting in place of paper forms. Methods: issues with paper-based reporting and the benefits of ODK were recounted. We determined the average utilization of ODK per polio SIA rounds and assessed the supervision coverage over time based on the proportion of local government areas with ODK geolocation data per round. Results: a total of 17 problematic issues were identified with paper-based reporting, and ODK addressed all the issues. Open Data Kit-based supervision reports increased from 3,125 in March 2017 to 51,060 in February 2020. Average ODK submissions for national rounds increased from 84 in March 2017 to 459 in February 2020 and for sub-national rounds increased from 533 in July 2017 to 1,596 in October 2019. Supportive supervision coverage improved from 42.5% in March 2017 to 97% in February 2020. Conclusion: the use of digital technologies in public health has comparative advantages over paper forms, and the adoption of ODK for supervision reporting during polio SIAs in Nigeria experienced the advantages. The visibility and coverage of supportive supervision improved, consequentially contributing to the improved quality of polio SIAs.

Current and next-generation formulation strategies for inactivated polio vaccines to lower costs, increase coverage, and facilitate polio eradication.

Implementation of inactivated polio vaccines (IPV) containing Sabin strains (sIPV) will further enable global polio eradication efforts by improving vaccine safety during use and containment during manufacturing. Moreover, sIPV-containing vaccines will lower costs and expand production capacity to facilitate more widespread use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This review focuses on the role of vaccine formulation in these efforts including traditional Salk IPV vaccines and new sIPV-containing dosage forms. The physicochemical properties and stability profiles of poliovirus antigens are described. Formulation approaches to lower costs include developing multidose and combination vaccine formats as well as improving storage stability. Formulation strategies for dose-sparing and enhanced mucosal immunity include employing adjuvants (e.g. aluminum-salt and newer adjuvants) and/or novel delivery systems (e.g. ID administration with microneedle patches). The potential for applying these low-cost formulation development strategies to other vaccines to further improve vaccine access and coverage in LMICs is also discussed.

Assessment of serological responses following vaccination campaigns with type 2 novel oral polio vaccine: a population-based study in Tajikistan in 2021.

BACKGROUND: Novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) was used to control an outbreak of type 2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) in Tajikistan, in 2021. We measured seroconversion and seroprevalence of type 2 polio antibodies in children who were reported to have received two doses of nOPV2 in outbreak response campaigns. METHODS: In this community serosurvey, children born after Jan 1, 2016 were enrolled from seven districts in Tajikistan. Dried blood spot cards were collected before nOPV2 campaigns and after the first and second rounds of the campaigns and were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA) for microneutralisation assay to determine presence of polio antibodies. The primary endpoint was to assess change in seroprevalence and seroconversion against poliovirus serotype 2 after one and two doses of nOPV2. FINDINGS: 228 (97%) of 236 enrolled children were included in the analysis. The type 2 antibody seroprevalence was 26% (53/204; 95% CI 20 to 33) before nOPV2, 77% (161/210; 70 to 82) after one dose of nOPV2, and 83% (174/209; 77 to 88) after two doses of nOPV2. The increase in seroprevalence was statistically significant between baseline and after one nOPV2 dose (51 percentage points [42 to 59], p<0·0001), but not between the first and second doses (6 percentage points [-2 to 15], p=0·12). Seroconversion from the first nOPV2 dose, 67% (89/132; 59 to 75), was significantly greater than that from the second nOPV2 dose, 44% (20/45; 30 to 60; χ2 p=0·010). Total seroconversion after two nOPV2 doses was 77% (101/132; 68 to 83). INTERPRETATION: Our study demonstrated strong immune responses following nOPV2 outbreak response campaigns in Tajikistan. Our results support previous clinical trial data on the generation of poliovirus type 2 immunity by nOPV2 and provide evidence that nOPV2 can be appropriate for the cVDPV2 outbreak response. The licensure and WHO prequalification of nOPV2 should be accelerated to facilitate wider use of the vaccine. FUNDING: World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Rotary International.

One vaccine to counter many diseases? Modeling the economics of oral polio vaccine against child mortality and COVID-19.

Introduction: Recent reviews summarize evidence that some vaccines have heterologous or non-specific effects (NSE), potentially offering protection against multiple pathogens. Numerous economic evaluations examine vaccines' pathogen-specific effects, but less than a handful focus on NSE. This paper addresses that gap by reporting economic evaluations of the NSE of oral polio vaccine (OPV) against under-five mortality and COVID-19. Materials and methods: We studied two settings: (1) reducing child mortality in a high-mortality setting (Guinea-Bissau) and (2) preventing COVID-19 in India. In the former, the intervention involves three annual campaigns in which children receive OPV incremental to routine immunization. In the latter, a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was developed to estimate the population benefits of two scenarios, in which OPV would be co-administered alongside COVID-19 vaccines. Incremental cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost ratios were modeled for ranges of intervention effectiveness estimates to supplement the headline numbers and account for heterogeneity and uncertainty. Results: For child mortality, headline cost-effectiveness was $650 per child death averted. For COVID-19, assuming OPV had 20% effectiveness, incremental cost per death averted was $23,000-65,000 if it were administered simultaneously with a COVID-19 vaccine <200 days into a wave of the epidemic. If the COVID-19 vaccine availability were delayed, the cost per averted death would decrease to $2600-6100. Estimated benefit-to-cost ratios vary but are consistently high. Discussion: Economic evaluation suggests the potential of OPV to efficiently reduce child mortality in high mortality environments. Likewise, within a broad range of assumed effect sizes, OPV (or another vaccine with NSE) could play an economically attractive role against COVID-19 in countries facing COVID-19 vaccine delays. Funding: The contribution by DTJ was supported through grants from Trond Mohn Foundation (BFS2019MT02) and Norad (RAF-18/0009) through the Bergen Center for Ethics and Priority Setting.

Cost-effectiveness of various immunization schedules with inactivated Sabin strain polio vaccine in Hangzhou, China.

Background: It is necessary to select suitable inactivated poliovirus vaccine(IPV) and live, attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) sequential immunization programs and configure the corresponding health resources. An economic evaluation was conducted on the sequential procedures of Sabin strain-based IPV (sIPV) and bivalent OPV (bOPV) with different doses to verify whether a cost-effectiveness target can be achieved. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different sIPV immunization schedules, which would provide convincing evidence to further change the poliovirus vaccine (PV) immunization strategies in China. Methods: Five strategies were included in this analysis. Based on Strategy 0(S0), the incremental cost (IC), incremental effect (IE), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the four different strategies (S1/S2/S3/S4) were calculated based on the perspective of the society. Seven cost items were included in this study. Results of field investigations and expert consultations were used to calculate these costs. Results: The ICs of S1/S2/S3/S4 was Chinese Yuan (CNY) 30.77, 68.58, 103.82, and 219.82 million, respectively. The IE of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (IEVAPP) cases of S1/S2/S3/S4 were 0.22, 0.22, 0.22, and 0.11, respectively, while the IE of disability-adjusted life-years (IEDALY) of S1/S2/S3/S4 were 8.98, 8.98, 8.98, and 4.49, respectively. The ICERVAPP of S1/S2/S3/S4 gradually increased to CNY 13.99, 31.17, 47.19, and 199.83 million/VAPP, respectively. The ICERDALY of S1/S2/S3/S4 also gradually increased to CNY 0.34, 0.76, 1.16, and 4.90 million/DALY, respectively. Conclusion: ICERVAPP and ICERDALY were substantially higher for S3 (four-sIPV) and S4 (replacement of self-funded sIPV based on one-sIPV-three-bOPV). Two-sIPV-two-bOPV had a cost-effectiveness advantage, whereas S2/S3/S4 had no cost-effectiveness advantage.

Health economic analysis of vaccine options for the polio eradication endgame: 2022-2036.

BACKGROUND: Multiple vaccine options are available for polio prevention and risk management. Integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling provides a tool to explore the dynamics of ending all use of one or more poliovirus vaccines to simplify the polio eradication endgame. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: With global reported cases of poliomyelitis trending higher since 2016, we apply an integrated global model to simulate prospective vaccine policies and strategies for OPV-using countries starting with initial conditions that correspond to the epidemiological poliovirus transmission situation at the beginning of 2022. RESULTS: Abruptly ending all OPV use in 2023 and relying only on IPV to prevent paralysis with current routine immunization coverage would lead to expected reestablished endemic transmission of poliovirus types 1 and 2, and approximately 150,000 expected cases of poliomyelitis per year. Alternatively, if OPV-using countries restart trivalent OPV (tOPV) use for all immunization activities and end IPV use, the model shows the lowest anticipated annual polio cases and lowest costs. CONCLUSIONS: Poor global risk management and coordination of OPV cessation remain a critical failure mode for the polio endgame, and national and global decision makers face difficult choices due to multiple available polio vaccine options and immunization strategies.

Vaccine events raising public concern and associated immunization program policy and practice changes, China, 2005-2021.

INTRODUCTION: Several vaccine events causing public concern have occurred in China that were investigated and responded to by the central government. We describe causes, influences, and policy or practice changes associated with vaccine events that occurred between 2005 and 2021. We make recommendations to foster resilience in China's Expanded Program of Immunization (EPI) system and vaccination enterprises and to sustain vaccine and program confidence. METHODS: Our study included all vaccine events since 2005 that were investigated and responded to by the central government of China. We verified mainstream and social media visibility of the events through Internet search. We extracted event times, causes, investigation processes, results, actions, and policy or practice regulation changes from official reports of government meetings and from official websites with media briefings. RESULTS: Seven vaccine events were identified, each of which caused more than 100,000 mainstream or social media reports nationally or nationally and internationally. The events ranged in magnitude from 145 children receiving out-of-date oral poliovirus vaccine to a measles supplementary immunization activity involving 103 million children. Few, if any, children were directly harmed by vaccines in the events. Government responded to each event with program or policy changes, and in one case, with legislation. Responses affected the conduct of campaigns and supplementary immunization activities, use of schools as vaccination venues, financial incentives for vaccinating with non-program vaccines, vaccine procurement and distribution, and program policy making. The most fundamental response was enacting the country's first vaccine law, the 2019 Vaccine Administration Law, which guides virtually all aspects of vaccination work, from vaccine development through regulation, program implementation, and safety and impact monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: All seven events generated substantial national and international mainstream and social media criticism and discussion, most commonly expressed through concerns of vaccine safety or vaccine effectiveness. Most had temporally associated temporary declines in vaccine confidence and coverage, jeopardizing decades of vaccination effort. The central government responded to each event by attempting to address root causes. Faithful implementation of the Vaccine Administration Law is fundamental to program strengthening and sustaining confidence of families, stakeholders, and government in vaccines and immunization in China.

Immunochemical and biophysical characterization of inactivated Sabin poliovirus products: Insights into rapid quality assessment tools.

The aim of this study was to demonstrate the strength of combining immunochemical and biophysical analysis tools for assessing the quality of Sabin inactivated poliovirus vaccine (Sabin-IPV) bulk products. We assessed Sabin-IPV serotypes 1, 2 and 3 from six different manufacturers and evaluated their comparability through biosensor analysis and biophysical characterization methods, including tryptophan fluorescence and asymmetrical flow field-flow fractionation - multi-angle light scattering analysis. These methods enabled us to assess antigenic as well as conformational and structural integrity profiles, respectively. Based on Sabin-IPV samples that were subjected to accelerated storage conditions, we revealed that existing immunochemical methods exhibit remarkably similar trends to the results obtained by the biophysical characterization methods. While the results underpin that the comparability of Sabin-IPV bulk products of different manufacturers is weak, information about their quality can rapidly be obtained by using both immunochemical and biophysical methods. Furthermore, the study highlights that quality assessment of Sabin-IPV can be obtained through biophysical techniques can complement the assessments performed with monoclonal antibodies and suggests that similar techniques could be employed to characterize other enteroviruses.

Assessment of vaccine wastage in South Sudan.

INTRODUCTION: vaccine utilization monitoring provides valuable information for practical forecasting and formulation of strategies to reduce avoidable wastage. This monitoring is weak at county and health facility levels in South Sudan. Lack of national wastage rates could result in inaccurate forecasting, leading to vaccine shortages or overstocking and expiration of vaccines at the subnational and service delivery points. As the country gears to introduce relatively expensive vaccines such as rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines, a robust vaccine utilization monitoring system must be rolled out. This study provides the best possible estimates of vaccine wastage rates and the possible causes of the wastage. METHODS: we conducted the study in 45 conveniently sampled health facilities across 9 of the ten states in South Sudan. Vaccine consumption data was prospectively collected to estimate vaccine wastage and the reason for the wastage of each vaccine type. RESULTS: wastage of lyophilized vaccines, measles, and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) ranged between 39.0-66.7% and 52.1-74.3%, respectively, mainly due to doses that were discarded 6 hours after the opening of the vial or at the end of the immunization session. Wastage of liquid vaccines Oral poliovirus vaccines (OPV), Penta, Inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), and Tetanus- diphtheria (Td) ranged between 24.4-49%, 15.5-43.4%, 25.3-57.9%, and 3.8-57.2%, respectively, mainly due to unusable VVM, expiry, unused doses at the end of outreach sessions, and vials without labels. CONCLUSION: wasted rates for all vaccines were higher than the indicative WHO wastage rates used in South Sudan to forecast national vaccine needs. Unopened vial wastage was high and needs immediate attention.

Age-appropriate vaccination coverage and its determinants in children aged 12-36 months in Nepal: a national and subnational assessment.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination is one of the effective ways to develop immunity against potential life-threatening diseases in children in early age. This study is focused on analysing the age-appropriate vaccination coverage at national and subnational levels and identify the factors associated with age-appropriate coverage in Nepal. METHODS: 460 children aged 12-36 months were included in the study. The data was obtained from Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) 2016-17. Age-appropriate coverage of Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccine (BCG), oral polio vaccine (OPV) doses 1-3, pentavalent vaccine (PE) doses 1-3, and first dose of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) were estimated using Kaplan Meier method. Multilevel logistic regression with random intercept was used to identify the factors associated with age-appropriate vaccination. RESULTS: The crude coverage of the vaccines included in the study ranged from 91.5% (95% CI, 88.5-93.7) for PE3 to 97.8% (95.8-98.7) for BCG. Although the crude coverage of all the vaccines was above 90%, the age-appropriate coverage was significantly low, ranging from 41.5% (36.5-46.6) for PE3 to 73.9% (69.2-78.1) for PE1. Furthermore, high disparity in timely vaccination coverage was observed at regional level. Compared to the age-appropriate vaccination coverage in other provinces, Province 2 had the lowest coverage of all, followed by that in Province 6. The timeliness of vaccination was significantly associated with subnational regions i.e., provinces and the season of childbirth. CONCLUSION: Although the immunization program in Nepal has achieved the target of 90% crude coverage of all the childhood vaccines, the age-appropriate coverage is significantly low which undermines the effectiveness of the vaccines administered. Thus, along with crude coverage, timeliness of the vaccines administered should be taken into consideration and thoroughly monitored at national and subnational levels. Provincial government should formulate tailored strategies to ensure the timely administration of the childhood vaccines.

Environmental Surveillance for Risk Assessment in the Context of a Phase 2 Clinical Trial of Type 2 Novel Oral Polio Vaccine in Panama.

Environmental surveillance was recommended for risk mitigation in a novel oral polio vaccine-2 (nOPV2) clinical trial (M5-ABMG) to monitor excretion, potential circulation, and loss of attenuation of the two nOPV2 candidates. The nOPV2 candidates were developed to address the risk of poliovirus (PV) type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) as part of the global eradication strategy. Between November 2018 and January 2020, an environmental surveillance study for the clinical trial was conducted in parallel to the M5-ABMG clinical trial at five locations in Panama. The collection sites were located upstream from local treatment plant inlets, to capture the excreta from trial participants and their community. Laboratory analyses of 49 environmental samples were conducted using the two-phase separation method. Novel OPV2 strains were not detected in sewage samples collected during the study period. However, six samples were positive for Sabin-like type 3 PV, two samples were positive for Sabin-like type 1 PV, and non-polio enteroviruses NPEVs were detected in 27 samples. One of the nOPV2 candidates has been granted Emergency Use Listing by the World Health Organization and initial use started in March 2021. This environmental surveillance study provided valuable risk mitigation information to support the Emergency Use Listing application.

Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019-2029.

The polio endgame remains complicated, with many questions about future polio vaccines and national immunization policies. We simulated possible future poliovirus vaccine routine immunization policies for countries stratified by World Bank Income Levels and estimated the expected costs and cases using an updated integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission, stochastic risk, and economic model. We consider two reference cases scenarios: one that achieves the eradication of all wild polioviruses (WPVs) by 2023 and one in which serotype 1 WPV (WPV1) transmission continues. The results show that the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunization in all countries substantially increased the expected costs of the polio endgame, without substantially increasing its expected health or economic benefits. Adding a second dose of IPV to the routine immunization schedules of countries that currently include a single IPV dose further increases costs and does not appear economically justified in the reference case that does not stop WPV transmission. For the reference case that includes all WPV eradication, adding a second IPV dose at the time of successful oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation represents a cost-effective option. The risks and costs of needing to restart OPV use change the economics of the polio endgame, although the time horizon used for modeling impacts the overall economic results. National health leaders will want to consider the expected health and economic net benefits of their national polio vaccine strategies recognizing that preferred strategies may differ.

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI using an updated integrated global model, and considering the GPEI trajectory as of the beginning of 2020. Applying similar methods and assuming eradication achievement in 2023, we estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 28 billion US$2019, which falls below the prior estimate. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with the widescale introduction of relatively expensive inactivated poliovirus vaccine significantly increased the costs of the GPEI and make it less cost-effective, although the GPEI continues to yield expected incremental net benefits at the global level when considered over the time horizon of 1988-2029. The overall health and financial benefits of the GPEI will depend on whether and when the GPEI can achieve its goals, when eradication occurs, the valuation method applied, and the path dependence of the actions taken. Reduced expected incremental net benefits of the GPEI and the substantial economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic pose large financial risks for the GPEI.

Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame.

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners engaged modelers during the past nearly 20 years to support strategy and policy discussions and decisions, and to provide estimates of the risks, costs, and benefits of different options for managing the polio endgame. Limited efforts to date provided insights related to the validation of the models used for GPEI strategy and policy decisions. However, modeling results only influenced decisions in some cases, with other factors carrying more weight in many key decisions. In addition, the results from multiple modeling groups do not always agree, which supports selection of some strategies and/or policies counter to the recommendations from some modelers but not others. This analysis reflects on our modeling, and summarizes our premises and recommendations, the outcomes of these recommendations, and the implications of key limitations of models with respect to polio endgame strategy. We briefly review the current state of the GPEI given epidemiological experience as of early 2020, which includes failure of the GPEI to deliver on the objectives of its 2013-2018 strategic plan despite full financial support. Looking ahead, we provide context for why the GPEI strategy of global oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation to end all cases of poliomyelitis looks infeasible given the current state of the GPEI and the failure to successfully stop all transmission of serotype 2 live polioviruses within four years of the April-May 2016 coordinated cessation of serotype 2 OPV use in routine immunization.

Insights From Modeling Preventive Supplemental Immunization Activities as a Strategy to Eliminate Wild Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Many countries use supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to keep their population immunity to transmission high using preventive, planned SIAs (pSIAs) and outbreaks response SIAs (oSIAs). Prior studies suggested that investment in pSIAs saved substantial health and financial costs due to avoided outbreaks. However, questions remain about the benefits of SIAs, particularly with the recent introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization in all OPV-using countries. The mounting costs of polio eradication activities and the need to respond to oSIAs threatens the use of limited financial resources for pSIAs, including in the remaining countries with endemic transmission of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) (i.e., Pakistan and Afghanistan). A recent updated global poliovirus transmission model suggested that the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) is not on track to stop transmission of WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan. We use the updated global model to explore the role of pSIAs to achieve WPV1 eradication. We find that unless Pakistan and Afghanistan manage to increase the quality of bivalent OPV (bOPV) pSIAs, which we model as intensity (i.e., sufficiently high-coverage bOPV pSIAs that reach missed children), the model does not lead to successful eradication of WPV1. Achieving WPV1 eradication, the global objectives of the GPEI, and a successful polio endgame depend on effective and sufficient use of OPV. IPV use plays a negligible role in stopping transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan and most other countries supported by the GPEI, and more IPV use will not help to stop transmission.

Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame.

Nearly 20 years after the year 2000 target for global wild poliovirus (WPV) eradication, live polioviruses continue to circulate with all three serotypes posing challenges for the polio endgame. We updated a global differential equation-based poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to include programmatic and epidemiological experience through January 2020. We used the model to explore the likely dynamics of poliovirus transmission for 2019-2023, which coincides with a new Global Polio Eradication Initiative Strategic Plan. The model stratifies the global population into 72 blocks, each containing 10 subpopulations of approximately 10.7 million people. Exported viruses go into subpopulations within the same block and within groups of blocks that represent large preferentially mixing geographical areas (e.g., continents). We assign representative World Bank income levels to the blocks along with polio immunization and transmission assumptions, which capture some of the heterogeneity across countries while still focusing on global poliovirus transmission dynamics. We also updated estimates of reintroduction risks using available evidence. The updated model characterizes transmission dynamics and resulting polio cases consistent with the evidence through 2019. Based on recent epidemiological experience and prospective immunization assumptions for the 2019-2023 Strategic Plan, the updated model does not show successful eradication of serotype 1 WPV by 2023 or successful cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine serotype 2-related viruses.

Expected Implications of Globally Coordinated Cessation of Serotype 3 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (OPV) Before Serotype 1 OPV.

Globally coordinated cessation of all three serotypes of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) represents a critical part of a successful polio endgame, which the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) plans to conduct in phases, with serotype 2 OPV cessation completed in mid 2016. Although in 2016 the GPEI expected to globally coordinate cessation of the remaining OPV serotypes (1 and 3) by 2021, continuing transmission of serotype 1 wild polioviruses to date makes those plans obsolete. With increasing time since the last reported polio case caused by serotype 3 wild poliovirus (in November 2012) leading to high confidence about its successful global eradication, the Global Commission for the Certification of Poliomyelitis Eradication recently certified its eradication. Questions now arise about the optimal timing of serotype 3 OPV (OPV3) cessation. Using an integrated global model that characterizes the risks, costs, and benefits of global polio policy and risk management options, we explored the implications of different options for coordinated cessation of OPV3 prior to COVID-19. Globally coordinating cessation of OPV3 as soon as possible offers the opportunity to reduce cases of vaccine-associated paralytic polio globally. In addition, earlier cessation of OPV3 should reduce the risks of creating serotype 3 circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses after OPV3 cessation, which represents a significant threat to the polio endgame given current GPEI plans to reduce preventive OPV supplemental immunization activities starting in 2019.

A Health Economic Analysis for Oral Poliovirus Vaccine to Prevent COVID-19 in the United States.

COVID-19 led to a recent high-profile proposal to reintroduce oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in the United States (U.S.), initially in clinical trials, but potentially for widespread and repeated use. We explore logistical challenges related to U.S. OPV administration in 2020, review the literature related to nonspecific effects of OPV to induce innate immunity, and model the health and economic implications of the proposal. The costs of reintroducing a single OPV dose to 331 million Americans would exceed $4.4 billion. Giving a dose of bivalent OPV to the entire U.S. population would lead to an expected 40 identifiable cases of vaccine-associated paralytic polio, with young Americans at the highest risk. Reintroducing any OPV use in the U.S. poses a risk of restarting transmission of OPV-related viruses and could lead to new infections in immunocompromised individuals with B-cell related primary immunodeficiencies that could lead to later cases of paralysis. Due to the lack of a currently licensed OPV in the U.S., the decision to administer OPV to Americans for nonspecific immunological effects would require purchasing limited global OPV supplies that could impact polio eradication efforts. Health economic modeling suggests no role for reintroducing OPV into the U.S. with respect to responding to COVID-19. Countries that currently use OPV experience fundamentally different risks, costs, and benefits than the U.S. Successful global polio eradication will depend on sufficient OPV supplies, achieving and maintaining high OPV coverage in OPV-using countries, and effective global OPV cessation and containment in all countries, including the U.S.