Cost minimization analysis of a hexavalent vaccine in Argentina.

BACKGROUND: Argentina currently uses a pentavalent vaccine containing diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whole cell), Haemophilus influenza type b and hepatitis B antigens, administered concomitantly with the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) (DTwP-Hib-HB plus IPV) in its childhood vaccination schedule. However, hexavalent vaccines containing acellular pertussis antigens (DTaP-Hib-HB-IPV) and providing protection against the same diseases are also licensed, but are only available with a private prescription or for high-risk pre-term infants in the public health program. We analyzed the cost of switching from the current schedule to the alternative schedule with the hexavalent vaccine in Argentina, assuming similar levels of effectiveness. METHODS: The study population was infants ≤ 1 year of age born in Argentina from 2015 to 2019. The analysis considered adverse events, programmatic, logistic, and vaccine costs of both schemes from the societal perspective. The societal costs were disaggregated to summarize costs incurred in the public sector and with vaccination pre-term infants in the public sector. Costs were expressed in 2021 US Dollars (US$). RESULTS: Although the cost of vaccines with the alternative scheme would be US$39.8 million (M) more than with the current scheme, these additional costs are in large part offset by fewer adverse event-associated costs and lower programmatic costs such that the overall cost of the alternative scheme would only be an additional US$3.6 M from the societal perspective. The additional cost associated with switching to the alternative scheme in the public sector and with the vaccination of pre-term infants in the public sector would be US$2.1 M and US$84,023, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The switch to an alternative scheme with the hexavalent vaccine in Argentina would result in marginally higher vaccine costs, which are mostly offset by the lower costs associated with improved logistics, fewer separate vaccines, and a reduction in adverse events.

Poliovirus outbreak in New York State, August 2022: qualitative assessment of immediate public health responses and priorities for improving vaccine coverage.

In 2022, a case of paralysis was reported in an unvaccinated adult in Rockland County (RC), New York. Genetically linked detections of vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) were reported in multiple New York counties, England, Israel, and Canada. The aims of this qualitative study were to: i) review immediate public health responses in New York to assess the challenges in addressing gaps in vaccination coverage; ii) inform a longer-term strategy to improving vaccination coverage in under-vaccinated communities, and iii) collect data to support comparative evaluations of transnational poliovirus outbreaks. Twenty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted with public health professionals, healthcare professionals, and community partners. Results indicate that i) addressing suboptimal vaccination coverage in RC remains a significant challenge after recent disease outbreaks; ii) the poliovirus outbreak was not unexpected and effort should be invested to engage mothers, the key decision-makers on childhood vaccination; iii) healthcare providers (especially paediatricians) received technical support during the outbreak, and may require resources and guidance to effectively contribute to longer-term vaccine engagement strategies; vi) data systems strengthening is required to help track under-vaccinated children. Public health departments should prioritize long-term investments in appropriate communication strategies, countering misinformation, and promoting the importance of the routine immunization schedule.

Current and next-generation formulation strategies for inactivated polio vaccines to lower costs, increase coverage, and facilitate polio eradication.

Implementation of inactivated polio vaccines (IPV) containing Sabin strains (sIPV) will further enable global polio eradication efforts by improving vaccine safety during use and containment during manufacturing. Moreover, sIPV-containing vaccines will lower costs and expand production capacity to facilitate more widespread use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This review focuses on the role of vaccine formulation in these efforts including traditional Salk IPV vaccines and new sIPV-containing dosage forms. The physicochemical properties and stability profiles of poliovirus antigens are described. Formulation approaches to lower costs include developing multidose and combination vaccine formats as well as improving storage stability. Formulation strategies for dose-sparing and enhanced mucosal immunity include employing adjuvants (e.g. aluminum-salt and newer adjuvants) and/or novel delivery systems (e.g. ID administration with microneedle patches). The potential for applying these low-cost formulation development strategies to other vaccines to further improve vaccine access and coverage in LMICs is also discussed.

Cost-effectiveness of various immunization schedules with inactivated Sabin strain polio vaccine in Hangzhou, China.

Background: It is necessary to select suitable inactivated poliovirus vaccine(IPV) and live, attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) sequential immunization programs and configure the corresponding health resources. An economic evaluation was conducted on the sequential procedures of Sabin strain-based IPV (sIPV) and bivalent OPV (bOPV) with different doses to verify whether a cost-effectiveness target can be achieved. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different sIPV immunization schedules, which would provide convincing evidence to further change the poliovirus vaccine (PV) immunization strategies in China. Methods: Five strategies were included in this analysis. Based on Strategy 0(S0), the incremental cost (IC), incremental effect (IE), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the four different strategies (S1/S2/S3/S4) were calculated based on the perspective of the society. Seven cost items were included in this study. Results of field investigations and expert consultations were used to calculate these costs. Results: The ICs of S1/S2/S3/S4 was Chinese Yuan (CNY) 30.77, 68.58, 103.82, and 219.82 million, respectively. The IE of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (IEVAPP) cases of S1/S2/S3/S4 were 0.22, 0.22, 0.22, and 0.11, respectively, while the IE of disability-adjusted life-years (IEDALY) of S1/S2/S3/S4 were 8.98, 8.98, 8.98, and 4.49, respectively. The ICERVAPP of S1/S2/S3/S4 gradually increased to CNY 13.99, 31.17, 47.19, and 199.83 million/VAPP, respectively. The ICERDALY of S1/S2/S3/S4 also gradually increased to CNY 0.34, 0.76, 1.16, and 4.90 million/DALY, respectively. Conclusion: ICERVAPP and ICERDALY were substantially higher for S3 (four-sIPV) and S4 (replacement of self-funded sIPV based on one-sIPV-three-bOPV). Two-sIPV-two-bOPV had a cost-effectiveness advantage, whereas S2/S3/S4 had no cost-effectiveness advantage.

Health economic analysis of vaccine options for the polio eradication endgame: 2022-2036.

BACKGROUND: Multiple vaccine options are available for polio prevention and risk management. Integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling provides a tool to explore the dynamics of ending all use of one or more poliovirus vaccines to simplify the polio eradication endgame. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: With global reported cases of poliomyelitis trending higher since 2016, we apply an integrated global model to simulate prospective vaccine policies and strategies for OPV-using countries starting with initial conditions that correspond to the epidemiological poliovirus transmission situation at the beginning of 2022. RESULTS: Abruptly ending all OPV use in 2023 and relying only on IPV to prevent paralysis with current routine immunization coverage would lead to expected reestablished endemic transmission of poliovirus types 1 and 2, and approximately 150,000 expected cases of poliomyelitis per year. Alternatively, if OPV-using countries restart trivalent OPV (tOPV) use for all immunization activities and end IPV use, the model shows the lowest anticipated annual polio cases and lowest costs. CONCLUSIONS: Poor global risk management and coordination of OPV cessation remain a critical failure mode for the polio endgame, and national and global decision makers face difficult choices due to multiple available polio vaccine options and immunization strategies.

Immunochemical and biophysical characterization of inactivated Sabin poliovirus products: Insights into rapid quality assessment tools.

The aim of this study was to demonstrate the strength of combining immunochemical and biophysical analysis tools for assessing the quality of Sabin inactivated poliovirus vaccine (Sabin-IPV) bulk products. We assessed Sabin-IPV serotypes 1, 2 and 3 from six different manufacturers and evaluated their comparability through biosensor analysis and biophysical characterization methods, including tryptophan fluorescence and asymmetrical flow field-flow fractionation - multi-angle light scattering analysis. These methods enabled us to assess antigenic as well as conformational and structural integrity profiles, respectively. Based on Sabin-IPV samples that were subjected to accelerated storage conditions, we revealed that existing immunochemical methods exhibit remarkably similar trends to the results obtained by the biophysical characterization methods. While the results underpin that the comparability of Sabin-IPV bulk products of different manufacturers is weak, information about their quality can rapidly be obtained by using both immunochemical and biophysical methods. Furthermore, the study highlights that quality assessment of Sabin-IPV can be obtained through biophysical techniques can complement the assessments performed with monoclonal antibodies and suggests that similar techniques could be employed to characterize other enteroviruses.

Economic impact of switching from partially combined vaccine "Pentaxim® and hepatitis B" to fully combined vaccine "Hexaxim®" in the Malaysian National Immunization Program.

BACKGROUND: The decision to implement new vaccines should be supported by public health and economic evaluations. Therefore, this study was primarily designed to evaluate the economic impact of switching from partially combined vaccine (Pentaxim® plus hepatitis B) to fully combined vaccine (Hexaxim®) in the Malaysian National Immunization Program (NIP) and to investigate healthcare professionals (HCPs)' and parents'/caregivers' perceptions. METHODS: In this economic evaluation study, 22 primary healthcare centers were randomly selected in Malaysia between December 2019 and July 2020. The baseline immunization schedule includes switching from Pentaxim® (four doses) and hepatitis B (three doses) to Hexaxim® (four doses), whereas the alternative scheme includes switching from Pentaxim® (four doses) and hepatitis B (three doses) to Hexaxim® (four doses) and hepatitis B (one dose) administered at birth. Direct medical costs were extracted using a costing questionnaire and an observational time and motion chart. Direct non-medical (cost for transportation) and indirect costs (loss of productivity) were derived from parents'/caregivers' questionnaire. Also, HCPs' and parent's/caregivers' perceptions were investigated using structured questionnaires. RESULTS: The cost per dose of Pentaxim® plus hepatitis B vs. Hexaxim® for the baseline scheme was Malaysian ringgit (RM) 31.90 (7.7 United States dollar [USD]) vs. 17.10 (4.1 USD) for direct medical cost, RM 54.40 (13.1 USD) vs. RM 27.20 (6.6 USD) for direct non-medical cost, RM 221.33 (53.3 USD) vs. RM 110.66 (26.7 USD) for indirect cost, and RM 307.63 (74.2 USD) vs. RM 155.00 (37.4 USD) for societal (total) cost. A similar trend was observed for the alternative scheme. Compared with Pentaxim® plus hepatitis B, total cost savings per dose of Hexaxim® were RM 137.20 (33.1 USD) and RM 104.70 (25.2 USD) in the baseline and alternative scheme, respectively. Eighty-four percent of physicians and 95% of nurses supported the use of Hexaxim® in the NIP. The majority of parents/caregivers had a positive perception regarding Hexaxim® vaccine in various aspects. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporation of Hexaxim® within Malaysian NIP is highly recommended because the use of Hexaxim® has demonstrated substantial direct and indirect cost savings for healthcare providers and parents/caregivers with a high percentage of positive perceptions, compared with Pentaxim® plus hepatitis B. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

Assessment of vaccine wastage in South Sudan.

INTRODUCTION: vaccine utilization monitoring provides valuable information for practical forecasting and formulation of strategies to reduce avoidable wastage. This monitoring is weak at county and health facility levels in South Sudan. Lack of national wastage rates could result in inaccurate forecasting, leading to vaccine shortages or overstocking and expiration of vaccines at the subnational and service delivery points. As the country gears to introduce relatively expensive vaccines such as rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines, a robust vaccine utilization monitoring system must be rolled out. This study provides the best possible estimates of vaccine wastage rates and the possible causes of the wastage. METHODS: we conducted the study in 45 conveniently sampled health facilities across 9 of the ten states in South Sudan. Vaccine consumption data was prospectively collected to estimate vaccine wastage and the reason for the wastage of each vaccine type. RESULTS: wastage of lyophilized vaccines, measles, and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) ranged between 39.0-66.7% and 52.1-74.3%, respectively, mainly due to doses that were discarded 6 hours after the opening of the vial or at the end of the immunization session. Wastage of liquid vaccines Oral poliovirus vaccines (OPV), Penta, Inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), and Tetanus- diphtheria (Td) ranged between 24.4-49%, 15.5-43.4%, 25.3-57.9%, and 3.8-57.2%, respectively, mainly due to unusable VVM, expiry, unused doses at the end of outreach sessions, and vials without labels. CONCLUSION: wasted rates for all vaccines were higher than the indicative WHO wastage rates used in South Sudan to forecast national vaccine needs. Unopened vial wastage was high and needs immediate attention.

Cost-Minimization and Budget Impact Analysis of a Hexavalent Vaccine (Hexaxim®) in the Colombian Expanded Program on Immunization.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate cost implications of a hexavalent vaccine (diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis [DTaP]-inactivated polio vaccine [IPV]-hepatitis B [HB]-Haemophilus influenzae type B [Hib] polysaccharide conjugated to T protein [PRP∼T]) as an alternative to DT-whole-cell pertussis (wP)-HB//Hib, DTwP, IPV, and oral polio vaccines in the Expanded Program on Immunization schedule in Colombia. METHODS: Primary vaccination (DTaP-IPV-HB-PRP∼T or DTwP-HB-Hib + IPV [2, 4, 6 months]) and booster (DTaP-IPV-HB-PRP∼T or DTwP + oral polio vaccine [18 months]) (scenario 1) and primary vaccination only (DTaP-IPV-HB-PRP∼T or DTwP-HB-Hib + IPV) (scenario 2) were evaluated. An estimated cost-minimization analysis was based on a micro costing technique for vaccination-associated activities. Adverse event (AE)-associated costs, out-of-pocket costs, and productivity losses for caregivers were included. A budget impact (12-month temporal horizon) was estimated according to the distribution of full-term and premature infants. A 5% annual discount rate was used. A 2-way univariate (tornado) analysis evaluated which variables had the greatest impact on the overall cost. RESULTS: DTaP-IPV-HB-PRP∼T resulted in a cost increase of 29.38% (scenario 1) and 22.19% (scenario 2) for full-term infants and a decrease of 0.99% (scenario 1) and 18.88% (scenario 2) for premature infants, probably because of the higher incidence of wP-related AEs and associated costs in premature infants. With a 100% replacement rate, the budget impact for full-term infants and full-term plus premature infants was 23.73% and 21.80% (scenario 1), respectively, and 13.02% and 11.14% (scenario 2), respectively, of the national immunization program budget. The variables with most impact were the hexavalent vaccine price and costs associated with the pentavalent safety profile. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporation of the hexavalent vaccine in the Expanded Program on Immunization schedule would lead to an increase in spending largely mitigated by reduced AE incidence and reduced logistic and social costs.

[Vaccination in children under 1 year with pertussis component in the context of the global initiative for the eradication of poliomyelitis in Argentina: economic analysis]. / Análisis económico de las vacunas del primer año de vida con componente pertussis en el contexto de la ini-ciativa mundial de erradicación de la poliomielitis en Argentina.

BACKGROUND: Global Polio Eradication Initiative promotes the introduction of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in its programs, with withdrawal of Sabin (bOPV). There is no an economic analysis of the investment related to the incorporation of IPV vaccines together with a whole cell Bordetella pertussis vaccine or combined with acellular hexavalent. AIM: An economic model that compares different vaccination schemes for the prevention of polio and pertussis in the first year of life was carried out. METHODS: Four vaccination scenarios for the primary scheme based on Argentina demographic and costs data were developed: - Scenario 1 (base case): two doses of IPV, one dose of bOPV and three doses of pentavalent (DTwP-HepB-Hib) vaccine; - Scenario 2: three doses of IPV plus three doses of pentavalent; - Scenario 3: three doses of hexavalent; - Scenario 4: two doses of hexavalent plus one dose of pentavalent plus IPV. RESULTS: The incremental cost based on scenario 1 was USD 3.716.671; 19.696.668 and 14.383.341 for scenarios 2, 3 and 4 respectively. In terms of reactogenicity savings was -14.178.240 compared base case with scenario 3. DISCUSSION: Full IPV introduction investment and costs associated were modified according to the type of vaccine and reactogenicity related with the B. pertussis component.

Análisis económico de las vacunas del primer año de vida con componente pertussis en el contexto de la ini-ciativa mundial de erradicación de la poliomielitis en Argentina / Vaccination in children under 1 year with pertussis component in the context of the global initiative for the eradication of poliomyelitis in Argentina: economic analysis

INTRODUCCIÓN: La Iniciativa Mundial de Erradicación de la Polio promueve la introducción de vacuna de polio inactivada (IPV) en sus programas, con la posterior retirada de Sabin (bOPV). OBJETIVO: Construir un modelo de económico que compare diferentes esquemas de vacunación para la prevención de polio y tosferina en el primer año de vida. Material y MÉTODOS: Análisis de cuatro escenarios de vacunación del esquema primario para Argentina, en base a los precios de las vacunas, costos del programa y reactogenicidad de vacuna celular o acelular para Bordetella pertussis: - Escenario 1 (caso base): dos dosis de IPV, una dosis de bOPV y tres dosis de vacuna pentavalente (DTwP-HB-Hib); - Escenario 2: tres dosis IPV y de pentavalente; - Escenario 3: tres dosis de hexavalente (DTaP-HepB-IPV-Hib); - Escenario 4: dos dosis de hexavalente más una dosis de pentavalente más IPV. RESULTADOS: El costo incremental en base al escenario 1 fue de USD 3.716.671; 19.696.668 y 14.383.341 para los escenarios 2, 3 y 4, respectivamente. Para la reactogenicidad, la diferencia fue de USD -14.178.240 comparado el caso base con el escenario 3. DISCUSIÓN: La inversión de incorporación de full IPV y costos asociados se modifica según tipo de vacuna y reactogenicidad asociada al componente B. pertussis.

BACKGROUND: Global Polio Eradication Initiative promotes the introduction of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in its programs, with withdrawal of Sabin (bOPV). There is no an economic analysis of the investment related to the incorporation of IPV vaccines together with a whole cell Bordetella pertussis vaccine or combined with acellular hexavalent. AIM: An economic model that compares different vaccination schemes for the prevention of polio and pertussis in the first year of life was carried out. METHODS: Four vaccination scenarios for the primary scheme based on Argentina demographic and costs data were developed: - Scenario 1 (base case): two doses of IPV, one dose of bOPV and three doses of pentavalent (DTwP-HepB-Hib) vaccine; - Scenario 2: three doses of IPV plus three doses of pentavalent; - Scenario 3: three doses of hexavalent; - Scenario 4: two doses of hexavalent plus one dose of pentavalent plus IPV. RESULTS: The incremental cost based on scenario 1 was USD 3.716.671; 19.696.668 and 14.383.341 for scenarios 2, 3 and 4 respectively. In terms of reactogenicity savings was -14.178.240 compared base case with scenario 3. DISCUSSION: Full IPV introduction investment and costs associated were modified according to the type of vaccine and reactogenicity related with the B. pertussis component.

Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019-2029.

The polio endgame remains complicated, with many questions about future polio vaccines and national immunization policies. We simulated possible future poliovirus vaccine routine immunization policies for countries stratified by World Bank Income Levels and estimated the expected costs and cases using an updated integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission, stochastic risk, and economic model. We consider two reference cases scenarios: one that achieves the eradication of all wild polioviruses (WPVs) by 2023 and one in which serotype 1 WPV (WPV1) transmission continues. The results show that the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunization in all countries substantially increased the expected costs of the polio endgame, without substantially increasing its expected health or economic benefits. Adding a second dose of IPV to the routine immunization schedules of countries that currently include a single IPV dose further increases costs and does not appear economically justified in the reference case that does not stop WPV transmission. For the reference case that includes all WPV eradication, adding a second IPV dose at the time of successful oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation represents a cost-effective option. The risks and costs of needing to restart OPV use change the economics of the polio endgame, although the time horizon used for modeling impacts the overall economic results. National health leaders will want to consider the expected health and economic net benefits of their national polio vaccine strategies recognizing that preferred strategies may differ.

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI using an updated integrated global model, and considering the GPEI trajectory as of the beginning of 2020. Applying similar methods and assuming eradication achievement in 2023, we estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 28 billion US$2019, which falls below the prior estimate. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with the widescale introduction of relatively expensive inactivated poliovirus vaccine significantly increased the costs of the GPEI and make it less cost-effective, although the GPEI continues to yield expected incremental net benefits at the global level when considered over the time horizon of 1988-2029. The overall health and financial benefits of the GPEI will depend on whether and when the GPEI can achieve its goals, when eradication occurs, the valuation method applied, and the path dependence of the actions taken. Reduced expected incremental net benefits of the GPEI and the substantial economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic pose large financial risks for the GPEI.

Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame.

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners engaged modelers during the past nearly 20 years to support strategy and policy discussions and decisions, and to provide estimates of the risks, costs, and benefits of different options for managing the polio endgame. Limited efforts to date provided insights related to the validation of the models used for GPEI strategy and policy decisions. However, modeling results only influenced decisions in some cases, with other factors carrying more weight in many key decisions. In addition, the results from multiple modeling groups do not always agree, which supports selection of some strategies and/or policies counter to the recommendations from some modelers but not others. This analysis reflects on our modeling, and summarizes our premises and recommendations, the outcomes of these recommendations, and the implications of key limitations of models with respect to polio endgame strategy. We briefly review the current state of the GPEI given epidemiological experience as of early 2020, which includes failure of the GPEI to deliver on the objectives of its 2013-2018 strategic plan despite full financial support. Looking ahead, we provide context for why the GPEI strategy of global oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation to end all cases of poliomyelitis looks infeasible given the current state of the GPEI and the failure to successfully stop all transmission of serotype 2 live polioviruses within four years of the April-May 2016 coordinated cessation of serotype 2 OPV use in routine immunization.

Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame.

Nearly 20 years after the year 2000 target for global wild poliovirus (WPV) eradication, live polioviruses continue to circulate with all three serotypes posing challenges for the polio endgame. We updated a global differential equation-based poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to include programmatic and epidemiological experience through January 2020. We used the model to explore the likely dynamics of poliovirus transmission for 2019-2023, which coincides with a new Global Polio Eradication Initiative Strategic Plan. The model stratifies the global population into 72 blocks, each containing 10 subpopulations of approximately 10.7 million people. Exported viruses go into subpopulations within the same block and within groups of blocks that represent large preferentially mixing geographical areas (e.g., continents). We assign representative World Bank income levels to the blocks along with polio immunization and transmission assumptions, which capture some of the heterogeneity across countries while still focusing on global poliovirus transmission dynamics. We also updated estimates of reintroduction risks using available evidence. The updated model characterizes transmission dynamics and resulting polio cases consistent with the evidence through 2019. Based on recent epidemiological experience and prospective immunization assumptions for the 2019-2023 Strategic Plan, the updated model does not show successful eradication of serotype 1 WPV by 2023 or successful cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine serotype 2-related viruses.

Insights From Modeling Preventive Supplemental Immunization Activities as a Strategy to Eliminate Wild Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Many countries use supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to keep their population immunity to transmission high using preventive, planned SIAs (pSIAs) and outbreaks response SIAs (oSIAs). Prior studies suggested that investment in pSIAs saved substantial health and financial costs due to avoided outbreaks. However, questions remain about the benefits of SIAs, particularly with the recent introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization in all OPV-using countries. The mounting costs of polio eradication activities and the need to respond to oSIAs threatens the use of limited financial resources for pSIAs, including in the remaining countries with endemic transmission of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) (i.e., Pakistan and Afghanistan). A recent updated global poliovirus transmission model suggested that the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) is not on track to stop transmission of WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan. We use the updated global model to explore the role of pSIAs to achieve WPV1 eradication. We find that unless Pakistan and Afghanistan manage to increase the quality of bivalent OPV (bOPV) pSIAs, which we model as intensity (i.e., sufficiently high-coverage bOPV pSIAs that reach missed children), the model does not lead to successful eradication of WPV1. Achieving WPV1 eradication, the global objectives of the GPEI, and a successful polio endgame depend on effective and sufficient use of OPV. IPV use plays a negligible role in stopping transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan and most other countries supported by the GPEI, and more IPV use will not help to stop transmission.

Updated Characterization of Post-OPV Cessation Risks: Lessons from 2019 Serotype 2 Outbreaks and Implications for the Probability of OPV Restart.

After the globally coordinated cessation of any serotype of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), some risks remain from undetected, existing homotypic OPV-related transmission and/or restarting transmission due to several possible reintroduction risks. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated global cessation of serotype 2-containing OPV (OPV2) in 2016. Following OPV2 cessation, the GPEI and countries implemented activities to withdraw all the remaining trivalent OPV, which contains all three poliovirus serotypes (i.e., 1, 2, and 3), from the supply chain and replace it with bivalent OPV (containing only serotypes 1 and 3). However, as of early 2020, monovalent OPV2 use for outbreak response continues in many countries. In addition, outbreaks observed in 2019 demonstrated evidence of different types of risks than previously modeled. We briefly review the 2019 epidemiological experience with serotype 2 live poliovirus outbreaks and propose a new risk for unexpected OPV introduction for inclusion in global modeling of OPV cessation. Using an updated model of global poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution with and without consideration of this new risk, we explore the implications of the current global situation with respect to the likely need to restart preventive use of OPV2 in OPV-using countries. Simulation results without this new risk suggest OPV2 restart will likely need to occur (81% of 100 iterations) to manage the polio endgame based on the GPEI performance to date with existing vaccine tools, and with the new risk of unexpected OPV introduction the expected OPV2 restart probability increases to 89%. Contingency planning requires new OPV2 bulk production, including genetically stabilized OPV2 strains.

Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines.

Countries face different poliovirus risks, which imply different benefits associated with continued and future use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and/or inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). With the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) continuing to extend its timeline for ending the transmission of all wild polioviruses and to introduce new poliovirus vaccines, the polio vaccine supply chain continues to expand in complexity. The increased complexity leads to significant uncertainty about supply and costs. Notably, the strategy of phased OPV cessation of all three serotypes to stop all future incidence of poliomyelitis depends on successfully stopping the transmission of all wild polioviruses. Countries also face challenges associated with responding to any outbreaks that occur after OPV cessation, because stopping transmission of such outbreaks requires reintroducing the use of the stopped OPV in most countries. National immunization program leaders will likely consider differences in their risks and willingness-to-pay for risk reduction as they evaluate their investments in current and future polio vaccination. Information about the costs and benefits of future poliovirus vaccines, and discussion of the complex situation that currently exists, should prove useful to national, regional, and global decisionmakers and support health economic modeling. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with increasing costs of poliovirus vaccines continue to increase financial risks for the GPEI.

Valuing the cost of improving Chilean primary vaccination: a cost minimization analysis of a hexavalent vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The phased withdrawal of oral polio vaccine (OPV) and the introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) is central to the polio 'end-game' strategy. METHODS: We analyzed the cost implications in Chile of a switch from the vaccination scheme consisting of a pentavalent vaccine with whole-cell pertussis component (wP) plus IPV/OPV vaccines to a scheme with a hexavalent vaccine with acellular pertussis component (aP) and IPV (Hexaxim®) from a societal perspective. Cost data were collected from a variety of sources including national estimates and previous vaccine studies. All costs were expressed in 2017 prices (US$ 1.00 = $Ch 666.26). RESULTS: The overall costs associated with the vaccination scheme (4 doses of pentavalent vaccine plus 1 dose IPV and 3 doses OPV) from a societal perspective was estimated to be US$ 12.70 million, of which US$ 8.84 million were associated with the management of adverse events related to wP. In comparison, the cost associated with the 4-dose scheme with a hexavalent vaccine (based upon the PAHO reference price) was US$ 19.76 million. The cost of switching to the hexavalent vaccine would be an additional US$ 6.45 million. Overall, depending on the scenario, the costs of switching to the hexavalent scheme would range from an additional US$ 2.62 million to US$ 6.45 million compared with the current vaccination scheme. CONCLUSIONS: The switch to the hexavalent vaccine schedule in Chile would lead to additional acquisition costs, which would be partially offset by improved logistics, and a reduction in adverse events associated with the current vaccines.