Assessment of Vaccine Herd Protection: Lessons Learned From Cholera and Typhoid Vaccine Trials.

Vaccine herd protection is the extension of the defense conferred by immunization beyond the vaccinated to unvaccinated persons in a population, as well as the enhancement of the protection among the vaccinated, due to vaccination of the surrounding population. Vaccine herd protection has traditionally been inferred from observations of disease trends after inclusion of a vaccine in national immunization schedules. Rather than awaiting outcomes of widescale vaccine deployment, earlier-stage evaluation of vaccine herd protection during trials or mass vaccination projects could help inform policy decisions about potential vaccine introduction. We describe the components, influencing factors, and implications of vaccine herd protection and discuss various methods for assessing herd protection, using examples from cholera and typhoid vaccine studies.

Progress in the overall understanding of typhoid fever: implications for vaccine development.

INTRODUCTION: Typhoid fever continues to have a substantial impact on human health, especially in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Access to safe water, and adequate sanitation and hygiene remain the cornerstone of prevention, but these are not widely available in many impoverished settings. The emergence of antibiotic resistance affects typhoid treatment and adds urgency to typhoid control efforts. Vaccines provide opportunities to prevent and control typhoid fever in endemic settings. AREAS COVERED: Literature search was performed looking for evidence concerning the global burden of typhoid and strategies for the prevention and treatment of typhoid fever. Cost of illness, available typhoid and paratyphoid vaccines and cost-effectiveness were also reviewed. The objective was to provide a critical overview of typhoid fever, in order to assess the current understanding and potential future directions for typhoid treatment and control. EXPERT COMMENTARY: Our understanding of typhoid burden and methods of prevention has grown over recent years. However, typhoid fever still has a significant impact on health in low and middle-income countries. Introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines to the immunization schedule is expected to make a major contribution to control of typhoid fever in endemic countries, although vaccination alone is unlikely to eliminate the disease.

Typhoidal Salmonella human challenge studies: ethical and practical challenges and considerations for low-resource settings.

Typhoidal Salmonella is a major global problem affecting more than 12 million people annually. Controlled human infection models (CHIMs) in high-resource settings have had an important role in accelerating the development of conjugate vaccines against Salmonella Typhi.The typhoidal Salmonella model has an established safety profile in over 2000 volunteers in high-income settings, and trial protocols, with modification, could be readily transferred to new study sites. To date, a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM has not been conducted in a low-resource setting, although it is being considered.Our article describes the challenges posed by a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM in the high-resource setting of Oxford and explores considerations for an endemic setting.Development of CHIMs in endemic settings is scientifically justifiable as it remains unclear whether findings from challenge studies performed in high-resource non-endemic settings can be extrapolated to endemic settings, where the burden of invasive Salmonella is highest. Volunteers are likely to differ across a range of important variables such as previous Salmonella exposure, diet, intestinal microbiota, and genetic profile. CHIMs in endemic settings arguably are ethically justifiable as affected communities are more likely to gain benefit from the study. Local training and research capacity may be bolstered.Safety was of primary importance in the Oxford model. Risk of harm to the individual was mitigated by careful inclusion and exclusion criteria; close monitoring with online diary and daily visits; 24/7 on-call staffing; and access to appropriate hospital facilities with capacity for in-patient admission. Risk of harm to the community was mitigated by exclusion of participants with contact with vulnerable persons; stringent hygiene and sanitation precautions; and demonstration of clearance of Salmonella infection from stool following antibiotic treatment.Safety measures should be more stringent in settings where health systems, transport networks, and sanitation are less robust.We compare the following issues between high- and low-resource settings: scientific justification, risk of harm to the individual and community, benefits to the individual and community, participant understanding, compensation, and regulatory requirements.We conclude that, with careful consideration of country-specific ethical and practical issues, a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM in an endemic setting is possible.

How Can the Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa and the Severe Typhoid Fever in Africa Programs Contribute to the Introduction of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccines?

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization now recommends the use of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in typhoid-endemic countries, and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, added TCVs into the portfolio of subsidized vaccines. Data from the Severe Typhoid Fever in Africa (SETA) program were used to contribute to TCV introduction decision-making processes, exemplified for Ghana and Madagascar. METHODS: Data collected from both countries were evaluated, and barriers to and benefits of introduction scenarios are discussed. No standardized methodological framework was applied. RESULTS: The Ghanaian healthcare system differs from its Malagasy counterpart: Ghana features a functioning insurance system, antimicrobials are available nationwide, and several sites in Ghana deploy blood culture-based typhoid diagnosis. A higher incidence of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella Typhi is reported in Ghana, which has not been identified as an issue in Madagascar. The Malagasy people have a low expectation of provided healthcare and experience frequent unavailability of medicines, resulting in limited healthcare-seeking behavior and extended consequences of untreated disease. CONCLUSIONS: For Ghana, high typhoid fever incidence coupled with spatiotemporal heterogeneity was observed. A phased TCV introduction through an initial mass campaign in high-risk areas followed by inclusion into routine national immunizations prior to expansion to other areas of the country can be considered. For Madagascar, a national mass campaign followed by routine introduction would be the introduction scenario of choice as it would protect the population, reduce transmission, and prevent an often-deadly disease in a setting characterized by lack of access to healthcare infrastructure. New, easy-to-use diagnostic tools, potentially including environmental surveillance, should be explored and improved to facilitate identification of high-risk areas.

The Invisible Burden: Diagnosing and Combatting Typhoid Fever in Asia and Africa.

Measuring the burden of typhoid fever and developing effective strategies to reduce it require a surveillance infrastructure that is currently lacking in many endemic countries. Recent efforts and partnerships between local and international researchers have helped to provide new data on the incidence and control of typhoid in parts of Asia and Africa. Here, we highlight examples from India, Nepal, Vietnam, Fiji, Sierra Leone, and Malawi that summarize past and present experiences with the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of typhoid fever in different locations with endemic disease. While there is no validated road map for the elimination of typhoid, the lessons learned in studying the epidemiology and control of typhoid in these settings can provide insights to guide future disease control efforts.

Toward Control? The Prospects and Challenges of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Introduction.

With a newly World Health Organization (WHO)-prequalified typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV), Gavi funding for eligible countries, and a WHO policy recommendation for TCV use, now is the time for countries to introduce TCVs as part of an integrated typhoid control program, particularly in light of the increasing burden of antimicrobial resistance. Continued vaccine development efforts will lead to secure supply of low-cost vaccines, and ongoing vaccine studies will provide critical vaccine performance data and inform optimal deployment strategies, in both routine use and in outbreak settings. TCV programs should include thoughtful communication planning and community engagement to counter vaccine hesitancy.

Generating the Evidence for Typhoid Vaccine Introduction: Considerations for Global Disease Burden Estimates and Vaccine Testing Through Human Challenge.

Typhoid fever has had a major impact on human populations, with the causative pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi implicated in many outbreaks through history. The current burden of disease is estimated at 11-18 million infections annually, with the majority of infections located in Africa and South Asia. Data that have been used to estimate burden are limited to a small number of blood-culture surveillance studies, largely from densely populated urban centers. Extrapolating these data to estimate disease burden within and across countries highlights the lack of precision in global figures. A number of approaches have been developed, characterizing different geographical areas by water-based risk factors for typhoid infection or broader measures of health and development to more accurately extrapolate incidence. Recognition of the substantial disease burden is essential for policy-makers considering vaccine introduction. Typhoid vaccines have been in development for >100 years. The Vi polysaccharide (ViPS) and Ty21a vaccines have had a World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for programmatic use in countries with high burden for 10 years, with 1 ViPS vaccine also having WHO prequalification. Despite this, uptake and introduction of these vaccines has been minimal. The development of a controlled human infection model (CHIM) enabled the accelerated testing of the newly WHO-prequalified ViPS-tetanus toxoid protein conjugate vaccine, providing efficacy estimates for the vaccine, prior to larger field trials. There is an urgency to the global control of enteric fever due to the escalating problem of antimicrobial resistance. With more accurate burden of disease estimates and a vaccine showing efficacy in CHIM, that control is now a possibility.

Opportunities for Typhoid Vaccination in India.

Typhoid fever, an infection with potentially life threatening complications, is responsible for 11 to 21 million illness episodes and 145,000 to 161,000 deaths each year globally. India is a high burden country and also faces the challenge of antimicrobial resistance, which further narrows treatment options. This review analyzes the need for typhoid vaccination in India, and appraises the evidence on efficacy, immunogenicity and cost-effectiveness of currently available typhoid vaccines. In 2018, WHO prequalified the first typhoid conjugate vaccine Vi-TT and recommended it for children aged 6-23 months, along with measles vaccine at 9 or 15 months of age through the expanded programme on immunization. With the high endemicity of typhoid in India and the proven cost-effectiveness of the conjugate vaccine, a roll-out of typhoid vaccine should be considered at the earliest.

Cost-effectiveness of routine and campaign use of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccine in Gavi-eligible countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. In 2017, WHO recommended the programmatic use of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccine (TCV) in endemic settings, and Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, has pledged support for vaccine introduction in these countries. Country-level health economic evaluations are now needed to inform decision-making. METHODS: In this modelling study, we compared four strategies: no vaccination, routine immunisation at 9 months, and routine immunisation at 9 months with catch-up campaigns to either age 5 years or 15 years. For each of the 54 countries eligible for Gavi support, output from an age-structured transmission-dynamic model was combined with country-specific treatment and vaccine-related costs, treatment outcomes, and disability weights to estimate the reduction in typhoid burden, identify the strategy that maximised average net benefit (ie, the optimal strategy) across a range of country-specific willingness-to-pay (WTP) values, estimate and investigate the uncertainties surrounding our findings, and identify the epidemiological conditions under which vaccination is optimal. FINDINGS: The optimal strategy was either no vaccination or TCV immunisation including a catch-up campaign. Routine vaccination with a catch-up campaign to 15 years of age was optimal in 38 countries, assuming a WTP value of at least US$200 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, or assuming a WTP value of at least 25% of each country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita per DALY averted, at a vaccine price of $1·50 per dose (but excluding Gavi's contribution according to each country's transition phase). This vaccination strategy was also optimal in 48 countries assuming a WTP of at least $500 per DALY averted, in 51 with assumed WTP values of at least $1000, in 47 countries assuming a WTP value of at least 50% of GDP per capita per DALY averted, and in 49 assuming a minimum of 100%. Vaccination was likely to be cost-effective in countries with 300 or more typhoid cases per 100 000 person-years. Uncertainty about the probability of hospital admission (and typhoid incidence and mortality) had the greatest influence on the optimal strategy. INTERPRETATION: Countries should establish their own WTP threshold and consider routine TCV introduction, including a catch-up campaign when vaccination is optimal on the basis of this threshold. Obtaining improved estimates of the probability of hospital admission would be valuable whenever the optimal strategy is uncertain. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Research Foundation-Flanders, and the Belgian-American Education Foundation.

Accelerating Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Introduction: What Can Be Learned From Prior New Vaccine Introduction Initiatives?

The health consequences of typhoid, including increasing prevalence of drug-resistant strains, can stress healthcare systems. While vaccination is one of the most successful and cost-effective health interventions, vaccine introduction can take years and require considerable effort. The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC) employs an integrated, proactive approach to accelerate the introduction of a new typhoid conjugate vaccine to reduce the burden of typhoid in countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. TyVAC and its partners are executing a plan, informed by prior successful vaccine introductions, and tailored to the nuances of typhoid disease and the typhoid conjugate vaccine. The iterative process detailed herein summarizes the strategy and experience gained from the first 2 years of the project.

A Review of the Economic Evidence of Typhoid Fever and Typhoid Vaccines.

Typhoid places a substantial economic burden on low- and middle-income countries. We performed a literature review and critical overview of typhoid-related economic issues to inform vaccine introduction. We searched 4 literature databases, covering 2000-2017, to identify typhoid-related cost-of-illness (COI) studies, cost-of-delivery studies, cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs), and demand forecast studies. Manual bibliographic searches of reviews revealed studies in the gray literature. Planned studies were identified in conference proceedings and through partner organization outreach. We identified 29 published, unpublished, and planned studies. Published COI studies revealed a substantial burden in Asia, with hospitalization costs alone ranging from $159 to $636 (in 2016 US$) in India, but there was less evidence for the burden in Africa. Cost-of-delivery studies are largely unpublished, but 1 study found that $671 000 in government investments would avert $60 000 in public treatment costs. CEA evidence was limited, but generally found targeted vaccination programs to be cost-effective. This review revealed insufficient economic evidence for vaccine introduction. Countries considering vaccine introduction should have access to relevant economic evidence to aid in decision-making and planning. Planned studies will fill many of the existing gaps in the literature.

Logistics of Implementing a Large-scale Typhoid Vaccine Trial in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Typhoid fever is estimated to affect over 20 million people per year worldwide, with infants, children, and adolescents in south-central and southeast Asia experiencing the greatest burden of disease. The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC) aims to support the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines into Gavi-eligible countries in an effort to reduce morbidity and mortality from typhoid. TyVAC-Nepal is a large-scale, participant- and observer-blind, individually randomized, controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of a newly developed typhoid conjugate vaccine in an urban setting in Nepal. In order to effectively deliver the trial, a number of key elements required meticulous planning. Public engagement strategies were considered early, and involved the implementation of a tiered approach. Approximately 300 staff were employed and trained in order to achieve the mass vaccination of 20 000 children aged 9 months to ≤16 years old over a 4-month period. There were 19 vaccination clinics established across the Lalitpur metropolitan city in the Kathmandu valley. Participants will be followed for 2 years post-vaccination to measure the rate reduction of blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever in the vaccination arm as compared to the control arm. The experience of conducting this large-scale vaccine trial suggests that comprehensive planning, continuous monitoring, and an ability to adapt plans in response to feedback are key.

Implementation of Interventions for the Control of Typhoid Fever in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Past research has focused on typhoid fever surveillance with little attention to implementation methods or effectiveness of control interventions. This study purposefully sampled key informants working in public health in Chile, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, South Africa, and Nigeria to 1) scope typhoid-relevant interventions implemented between 1990 and 2015 and 2) explore contextual factors perceived to be associated with their implementation, based on the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). We used a mixed methods design and collected quantitative data (CFIR questionnaire) and qualitative data (interviews with 34 public health experts). Interview data were analyzed using a deductive qualitative content analysis and summary descriptive statistics are provided for the CFIR data. Despite relatively few typhoid-specific interventions reportedly implemented in these countries, interventions for diarrheal disease control and regulations for food safety and food handlers were common. Most countries implemented agricultural and sewage treatment practices, yet few addressed the control of antibiotic medication. Several contextual factors were perceived to have influenced the implementation of typhoid interventions, either as enablers (e.g., economic development) or barriers (e.g., limited resources and habitual behaviors). Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research factors rated as important in the implementation of typhoid interventions were remarkably consistent across countries. The findings provide a snapshot of typhoid-relevant interventions implemented over 25 years and highlight factors associated with implementation success from the perspective of a sample of key informants. These findings can inform systematic investigations of the implementation of typhoid control interventions and contribute to a better understanding of the direct effects of implementation efforts.

Economic evaluation of typhoid - a review.

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the potential economic value and likely impact of a hypothetical rapid test in its early stages of development requires the use of models. The model structure and the type of model (dynamic/static) to employ are key considerations. The aim of the review was to explore the literature on typhoid economic evaluations and to explore the types of models that have been previously adopted in this setting for test-treat evaluations and to capture data on model inputs that may be useful for a de novo model. AREAS COVERED: A systematic review was conducted to identify economic evaluations focused on typhoid in established literature databases. Eight studies were identified and included for narrative synthesis. The review has revealed that there have been relatively few economic evaluations that have focused on typhoid fever, all of which have focused on the impact of interventions at the population level (vaccination) but not the individual level (test-treat strategies). EXPERT COMMENTARY: Under certain circumstances, either a static model or a transmission dynamic model may be appropriate in the evaluation of an intervention for typhoid fever. Typhoid test-treat modeling represents a gray area where further work is needed.

Integration of enteric fever surveillance into the WHO-coordinated Invasive Bacterial-Vaccine Preventable Diseases (IB-VPD) platform: A low cost approach to track an increasingly important disease.

BACKGROUND: Lack of surveillance systems and accurate data impede evidence-based decisions on treatment and prevention of enteric fever, caused by Salmonella Typhi/Paratyphi. The WHO coordinates a global Invasive Bacterial-Vaccine Preventable Diseases (IB-VPD) surveillance network but does not monitor enteric fever. We evaluated the feasibility and sustainability of integrating enteric fever surveillance into the ongoing IB-VPD platform. METHODOLOGIES: The IB-VPD surveillance system uses WHO definitions to enroll 2-59 month children hospitalized with possible pneumonia, sepsis or meningitis. We expanded this surveillance system to additionally capture suspect enteric fever cases during 2012-2016, in two WHO sentinel hospitals of Bangladesh, by adding inclusion criteria of fever ≥102°F for ≥3 days, irrespective of other manifestations. Culture-positive enteric fever cases from in-patient departments (IPD) detected in the hospital laboratories but missed by the expanded surveillance, were also enrolled to assess completion. Costs for this integration were calculated for the additional personnel and resources required. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the IB-VPD surveillance, 5,185 cases were enrolled; 3% (N = 171/5185) were positive for microbiological growth, of which 55% (94/171) were culture-confirmed cases of enteric fever (85 Typhi and 9 Paratyphi A). The added inclusion criteria for enteric fever enrolled an additional 1,699 cases; 22% (358/1699) were positive, of which 85% (349/358) were enteric fever cases (305 Typhi and 44 Paratyphi A). Laboratory surveillance of in-patients of all ages enrolled 311 additional enteric fever cases (263 Typhi and 48 Paratyphi A); 9% (28/311) were 2-59 m and 91% (283/311) >59 m. Altogether, 754 (94+349+311) culture-confirmed enteric fever cases were found, of which 471 were 2-59 m. Of these 471 cases, 94% (443/471) were identified through the hospital surveillances and 6% (28/471) through laboratory results. Twenty-three percent (170/754) of all cases were children <2 years. Additional cost for the integration was USD 44,974/year, a 27% increase to the IB-VPD annual expenditure. CONCLUSION: In a setting where enteric disease is a substantial public health problem, we could integrate enteric fever surveillance into the standard IB-VPD surveillance platform at a modest cost.

A forecast of typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction and demand in typhoid endemic low- and middle-income countries to support vaccine introduction policy and decisions.

A Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine (TCV) is expected to acquire WHO prequalification soon, which will pave the way for its use in many low- and middle-income countries where typhoid fever is endemic. Thus it is critical to forecast future vaccine demand to ensure supply meets demand, and to facilitate vaccine policy and introduction planning. We forecasted introduction dates for countries based on specific criteria and estimated vaccine demand by year for defined vaccination strategies in 2 scenarios: rapid vaccine introduction and slow vaccine introduction. In the rapid introduction scenario, we forecasted 17 countries and India introducing TCV in the first 5 y of the vaccine's availability while in the slow introduction scenario we forecasted 4 countries and India introducing TCV in the same time period. If the vaccine is targeting infants in high-risk populations as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand peaks around 40 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. Similarly, if the vaccine is targeting infants in the general population as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand increases to 160 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. The demand forecast projected here is an upper bound estimate of vaccine demand, where actual demand depends on various factors such as country priorities, actual vaccine introduction, vaccination strategies, Gavi financing, costs, and overall product profile. Considering the potential role of TCV in typhoid control globally; manufacturers, policymakers, donors and financing bodies should work together to ensure vaccine access through sufficient production capacity, early WHO prequalification of the vaccine, continued Gavi financing and supportive policy.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid conjugate vaccines in five endemic low- and middle-income settings.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever remains endemic in low- and middle-income countries. Programmatic use of existing vaccines is limited, but upcoming typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) could warrant wider use. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of five TCV delivery strategies in three urban areas (Delhi and Kolkata, India and Nairobi, Kenya) and two rural settings (Lwak, Kenya and Dong Thap, Vietnam) with varying incidence. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated routine infant vaccination with and without catch-up campaigns among older individuals. We used a dynamic model of typhoid transmission to simulate cases, hospitalizations, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) lost, treatment and intervention costs. We estimated cost-effectiveness (in terms of cost in international dollars (I$) per DALY averted) from the healthcare payer perspective, and assessed how it was influenced by uncertain model parameters. Compared to no vaccination, routine infant vaccination at I$1/dose was cost-saving in Delhi and Dong Thap, "very cost-effective" in Kolkata and Nairobi, and "cost-effective" in Lwak according to World Health Organization thresholds. However, routine vaccination was not the optimal strategy compared to strategies that included a catch-up campaign, which yielded the highest probability of being cost-saving in Delhi and Dong Thap and were most likely to provide a return on investment above a willingness-to-pay threshold of I$1440 in Kolkata, I$2300 in Nairobi, and I$5360 in Lwak. Vaccine price impacted the optimal strategy, and the number of doses required and rate of hospitalization were the primary sources of uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Routine vaccination with TCV would be cost-effective in most settings, and additional one-time catch-up campaigns would also be economically justified.

The unrecognized burden of typhoid fever.

INTRODUCTION: Typhoid fever (TF), caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, is the most common cause of enteric fever, responsible for an estimated 129,000 deaths and more than 11 million cases annually. Although several reviews have provided global and regional TF disease burden estimates, major gaps in our understanding of TF epidemiology remain. Areas covered: We provide an overview of the gaps in current estimates of TF disease burden and offer suggestions for addressing them, so that affected communities can receive the full potential of disease prevention offered by vaccination and water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions. Expert commentary: Current disease burden estimates for TF do not capture cases from certain host populations, nor those with atypical presentations of TF, which may lead to substantial underestimation of TF cases and deaths. These knowledge gaps pose major obstacles to the informed use of current and new generation typhoid vaccines.