Risk assessment of recent Egyptian H5N1 influenza viruses.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the H5N1 subtype are enzootic in poultry populations in different parts of the world, and have caused numerous human infections in recent years, particularly in Egypt. However, no sustained human-to-human transmission of these viruses has yet been reported. We tested nine naturally occurring Egyptian H5N1 viruses (isolated in 2014-2015) in ferrets and found that three of them transmitted via respiratory droplets, causing a fatal infection in one of the exposed animals. All isolates were sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors. However, these viruses were not transmitted via respiratory droplets in three additional transmission experiments in ferrets. Currently, we do not know if the efficiency of transmission is very low or if subtle differences in experimental parameters contributed to these inconsistent results. Nonetheless, our findings heighten concern regarding the pandemic potential of recent Egyptian H5N1 influenza viruses.

LABEL: fast and accurate lineage assignment with assessment of H5N1 and H9N2 influenza A hemagglutinins.

The evolutionary classification of influenza genes into lineages is a first step in understanding their molecular epidemiology and can inform the subsequent implementation of control measures. We introduce a novel approach called Lineage Assignment By Extended Learning (LABEL) to rapidly determine cladistic information for any number of genes without the need for time-consuming sequence alignment, phylogenetic tree construction, or manual annotation. Instead, LABEL relies on hidden Markov model profiles and support vector machine training to hierarchically classify gene sequences by their similarity to pre-defined lineages. We assessed LABEL by analyzing the annotated hemagglutinin genes of highly pathogenic (H5N1) and low pathogenicity (H9N2) avian influenza A viruses. Using the WHO/FAO/OIE H5N1 evolution working group nomenclature, the LABEL pipeline quickly and accurately identified the H5 lineages of uncharacterized sequences. Moreover, we developed an updated clade nomenclature for the H9 hemagglutinin gene and show a similarly fast and reliable phylogenetic assessment with LABEL. While this study was focused on hemagglutinin sequences, LABEL could be applied to the analysis of any gene and shows great potential to guide molecular epidemiology activities, accelerate database annotation, and provide a data sorting tool for other large-scale bioinformatic studies.

Phylogeography of influenza A H5N1 clade 2.2.1.1 in Egypt.

BACKGROUND: Influenza A H5N1 has killed millions of birds and raises serious public health concern because of its potential to spread to humans and cause a global pandemic. While the early focus was in Asia, recent evidence suggests that Egypt is a new epicenter for the disease. This includes characterization of a variant clade 2.2.1.1, which has been found almost exclusively in Egypt.We analyzed 226 HA and 92 NA sequences with an emphasis on the H5N1 2.2.1.1 strains in Egypt using a Bayesian discrete phylogeography approach. This allowed modeling of virus dispersion between Egyptian governorates including the most likely origin. RESULTS: Phylogeography models of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) suggest Ash Sharqiyah as the origin of virus spread, however the support is weak based on Kullback-Leibler values of 0.09 for HA and 0.01 for NA. Association Index (AI) values and Parsimony Scores (PS) were significant (p-value < 0.05), indicating that dispersion of H5N1 in Egypt was geographically structured. In addition, the Ash Sharqiyah to Al Gharbiyah and Al Fayyum to Al Qalyubiyah routes had the strongest statistical support. CONCLUSION: We found that the majority of routes with strong statistical support were in the heavily populated Delta region. In particular, the Al Qalyubiyah governorate appears to represent a popular location for virus transition as it represented a large portion of branches in both trees. However, there remains uncertainty about virus dispersion to and from this location and thus more research needs to be conducted in order to examine this.Phylogeography can highlight the drivers of H5N1 emergence and spread. This knowledge can be used to target public health efforts to reduce morbidity and mortality. For Egypt, future work should focus on using data about vaccination and live bird markets in phylogeography models to study their impact on H5N1 diffusion within the country.

Genetic characterization and pathogenicity assessment of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses isolated from migratory wild birds in 2011, South Korea.

The continued spread of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus among wild birds and poultry has posed a potential threat to human public health. In the present study, we report the isolation of HPAI H5N1 viruses (A/Md/Korea/W401/11 and A/Md/Korea/W404/11) from fecal samples of migratory birds. Genetic and phlyogenetic analyses demonstrated that these viruses are genetically identical possessing gene segments from avian virus origin and showing highest sequence similarities (as high as 99.8%) to A/Ws/Hokkaido/4/11 and 2009-2010 Mongolian-like clade 2.3.2 isolates rather than previous Korean H5N1 viruses. Both viruses possess the polybasic motif (QRERRRK/R) in HA but other genes did not bear additional virulence markers. Pathogenicity of A/Md/Korea/W401/11 was assessed and compared with a 2006 clade 2.2 HPAI H5N1 migratory bird isolate (A/EM/Korea/W149/06) in chickens, ducks, mice and ferrets. Experimental infection in these hosts showed that both viruses have high pathogenic potential in chickens (2.3-3.0 LD(50)s) and mice (3.3-3.9 LD(50)s), but A/Md/Korea/W401/11 was less pathogenic in duck and ferret models. Despite recovery of both infection viruses in the upper respiratory tract, efficient ferret-to-ferret transmission was not observed. These data suggest that the 2011 Korean HPAI wild bird H5N1 virus could replicate in mammalian hosts without pre-adaptation but could not sustain subsequent infection. This study highlights the role of migratory birds in the perpetuation and spread of HPAI H5N1 viruses in Far-East Asia. With the changing pathobiology caused by H5N1 viruses among wild and poultry birds, continued surveillance of influenza viruses among migratory bird species remains crucial for effective monitoring of high-pathogenicity or pandemic influenza viruses.

Molecular detection of a novel human influenza (H1N1) of pandemic potential by conventional and real-time quantitative RT-PCR assays.

BACKGROUND: Influenza A viruses are medically important viral pathogens that cause significant mortality and morbidity throughout the world. The recent emergence of a novel human influenza A virus (H1N1) poses a serious health threat. Molecular tests for rapid detection of this virus are urgently needed. METHODS: We developed a conventional 1-step RT-PCR assay and a 1-step quantitative real-time RT-PCR assay to detect the novel H1N1 virus, but not the seasonal H1N1 viruses. We also developed an additional real-time RT-PCR that can discriminate the novel H1N1 from other swine and human H1 subtype viruses. RESULTS: All of the assays had detection limits for the positive control in the range of 1.0 x 10(-4) to 2.0 x 10(-3) of the median tissue culture infective dose. Assay specificities were high, and for the conventional and real-time assays, all negative control samples were negative, including 7 human seasonal H1N1 viruses, 1 human H2N2 virus, 2 human seasonal H3N2 viruses, 1 human H5N1 virus, 7 avian influenza viruses (HA subtypes 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, and 10), and 48 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPAs) from patients with noninfluenza respiratory diseases; for the assay that discriminates the novel H1N1 from other swine and human H1 subtype viruses, all negative controls were also negative, including 20 control NPAs, 2 seasonal human H1N1 viruses, 2 seasonal human H3N2 viruses, and 2 human H5N1 viruses. CONCLUSIONS: These assays appear useful for the rapid diagnosis of cases with the novel H1N1 virus, thereby allowing better pandemic preparedness.

Epidemiology of pandemic influenza: use of surveillance and modeling for pandemic preparedness.

Along with continual enhancement of current influenza surveillance programs, pandemic preparedness also involves application of current surveillance techniques to past pandemics to identify their viruses and patterns, as well as estimation of the potential burden of future pandemics. Although mortality surveillance has been in place in selected locations for more than a century, the recent development of molecular diagnostics has shed new light on the origin and structure of the viruses responsible for the past 3 pandemics, allowing for comparisons with new viruses identified through ongoing viral surveillance. Models previously used to estimate hospitalizations and mortality associated with past epidemics and pandemics have evolved to estimate the burden and required surge capacity of future pandemics of different severities.

Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic.

Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic is now a top global public health priority. Influenza prevention and containment strategies can be considered under the broad categories of antiviral, vaccine and non-pharmaceutical (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel) measures. Mathematical models are powerful tools for exploring this complex landscape of intervention strategies and quantifying the potential costs and benefits of different options. Here we use a large-scale epidemic simulation to examine intervention options should initial containment of a novel influenza outbreak fail, using Great Britain and the United States as examples. We find that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2-3 weeks unless more than 99% effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40%, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact, if feasible. Treatment of clinical cases can reduce transmission, but only if antivirals are given within a day of symptoms starting. Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40-50%. More widespread prophylaxis would be even more logistically challenging but might reduce attack rates by over 75%. Vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy. Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics.

Experimental assessment of the pathogenicity of H5N1 influenza A viruses isolated in Japan.

We examined the pathogenicity for chickens of two H5N1 avian influenza viruses isolated in Japan, A/chicken/ Yamaguchi/7/2004 (Ck/Yamaguchi/7/04) isolated from outbreaks in commercial layer chickens, and A/duck/Yokohama/aq10/ 2003 (Dk/Yokohama/aq10/03) isolated from duck meat imported from China. All chickens inoculated intranasally with either strain died, and the viruses were reisolated from all organs examined. However, both the mean time of onset of clinical signs and the mean death time of Ck/Yamaguchi/7/04 were shorter than those of Dk/Yokohama/aq10/03.