[Structure problem analysis and trend prediction of energy supply and demand in Guangzhou City].

ABSTRACT

This paper aims at the tense situation of energy demand and supply and analysis the current situation and problems of energy supply and demand in Guangzhou. We predict total demand of energy which will be 4534.7 x 10(4) of standard coal in 2010 by using the department analysis method and sequence method, and the balance between supply and demand of energy will be 45,000 thousand tons of standard coal. From the primary conclusions of our empirical analysis and together with the overall environment of energy in Guangdong and China, we think the development strategies of energy in Guangzhou in the future should involve several main points as following (1) Energy of Guangzhou should base on the overall energy development programming of China and that is, it should depend on the "transmission of electricity from the western to the eastern region", power incorporation of Sanxia, power generated of water energy, nuclear power and new resource. (2) Stop setting up or expending the natural monopoly and resource oriented Huangpu thermal power plant located in the windward direction of summer of Guangzhou which has serious pollution and consumes large quantities of energy. (3) It should not absolutely depend on the coal of the poor mountainous region of Guangdong and small power station and can make full use of the resource potential.