Development and validation of a predictive model to predict and manage drug shortages.
Am J Health Syst Pharm
; 78(14): 1309-1316, 2021 07 09.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33821926
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
Pharmacy departments across the country are problem-solving the growing issue of drug shortages. We aim to change the drug shortage management strategy from a reactive process to a more proactive approach using predictive data analytics. By doing so, we can drive our decision-making to more efficiently manage drug shortages.METHODS:
Internal purchasing, formulary, and drug shortage data were reviewed to identify drugs subject to a high shortage risk ("shortage drugs") or not subject to a high shortage risk ("nonshortage drugs"). Potential candidate predictors of drug shortage risk were collected from previous literature. The dataset was trained and tested using 2 methods, including k-fold cross-validation and a 70/30 partition into a training dataset and a testing dataset, respectively.RESULTS:
A total of 1,517 shortage and nonshortage drugs were included. The following candidate predictors were used to build the dataset dosage form, therapeutic class, controlled substance schedule (Schedule II or Schedules III-V), orphan drug status, generic versus branded status, and number of manufacturers. Predictors that positively predicted shortages included classification of drugs as intravenous-only, both oral and intravenous, antimicrobials, analgesics, electrolytes, anesthetics, and cardiovascular agents. Predictors that negatively predicted a shortage included classification as an oral-only agent, branded-only agent, antipsychotic, Schedule II agent, or orphan drug, as well as the total number of manufacturers. The calculated sensitivity was 0.71; the specificity, 0.93; the accuracy, 0.87; and the C statistic, 0.93.CONCLUSION:
The study demonstrated the use of predictive analytics to create a drug shortage model using drug characteristics and manufacturing variables.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Temas:
ECOS
/
Estado_mercado_regulacao
Bases de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Farmácias
/
Indústria Farmacêutica
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Am J Health Syst Pharm
Assunto da revista:
FARMACIA
/
HOSPITAIS
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos