Study on industrial carbon emissions in China based on GDIM decomposition method and two decoupling effects.

ABSTRACT

The driving factors of China's industrial carbon emissions are decomposed by generalized Divisia index method (GDIM), so as to study the reasons for the change of China's industrial carbon emissions. The decoupling effect of China's industrial carbon emissions and economic growth is examined by speed decoupling and quantity decoupling. The speed decoupling is calculated by Tapio decoupling elasticity and emission reduction effort function, and the quantity decoupling is measured by environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The results show that the positive driving factors are output size effect > industrial energy consumption effect > population size effect, and the negative driving factors are investment carbon emission effect > output carbon intensity effect > per capita output effect > economic efficiency effect > energy intensity effect. The elasticity of emission reduction is basically greater than that of energy conservation, indicating that there is still abundant room for efforts in emission reduction. The overall decoupling effect of carbon emissions is undecoupling-strong decoupling-undecoupling. Quadratic EKC shape is "U" shape, and the inflection point is 11.0987; the shape of cubic EKC is "N," and the inflection points are - 0.0137 and 2.4069, respectively, which satisfies the hypothesis of EKC curve.