[Medium and Long-term Carbon Emission Projections and Emission Reduction Potential Analysis of the Lingang Special Area Based on the LEAP Model].
Huan Jing Ke Xue
; 45(2): 721-731, 2024 Feb 08.
Article
em Zh
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38471912
ABSTRACT
Based on the existing statistical data of the Lingang Special Area in Shanghai and considering its future socio-economic developmentï¼ industrial structureï¼ and technological developmentï¼ a LEAP-Lingang model was developed to analyze the evolution trends of energy demand and carbon emissions under the baseline scenarioï¼ low-carbon scenarioï¼ and enhanced low-carbon scenario. To enhance the prediction accuracy of the modelï¼ the Logistic population growth model was used to predict future population dataï¼ and the learning curve model was used to simulate the cost evolution trend of related carbon reduction technologies. In additionï¼ an economic evaluation model for carbon reduction technologies was developedï¼ and the economic costs and emission reduction potential of typical carbon reduction technologies were evaluated by drawing a marginal emission reduction cost curve. The results showed that under the enhanced low-carbon scenarioï¼ the renewable energy accounted for 69% of the primary energy consumptionï¼ and the electric energy accounted for 91% of the terminal energy demand in 2060. The Lingang Special Area could achieve carbon peak by 2030ï¼ and the carbon emissions in 2060 were predicted to decrease by 94% compared to that in the baseline scenario. In terms of contribution to emission reductionï¼ clean energy substitutionï¼ industrial structure optimizationï¼ and terminal energy efficiency improvement played a key role in reducing carbon emissions near the port. In the medium term ï¼until 2035ï¼ï¼ they were predicted to contribute 35.1%ï¼ 27.3%ï¼ and 16.2% of carbon emissionsï¼ respectivelyï¼ and in the long term ï¼until 2060ï¼ï¼ they should contribute 50.6%ï¼ 8.75%ï¼ and 7.7% of carbon emissionsï¼ respectively. Regarding specific carbon reduction technologiesï¼ hydrogen power generationï¼ water electrolysis for hydrogenï¼ and carbon captureï¼ utilizationï¼ and storage ï¼CCUSï¼ technology were of great significance for achieving net-zero emissionsï¼ but the costs of emission reduction were relatively high. The research results can provide ideas and references for the low-carbon and green development of the Lingang Special Area and related areas.
Texto completo:
1
Temas:
ECOS
/
Avaliacao_economica
Bases de dados:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
Zh
Revista:
Huan Jing Ke Xue
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China