Safeguarding China's long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors.
Nat Commun
; 15(1): 5338, 2024 Jun 24.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38914536
ABSTRACT
China's long-term sustainability faces socioeconomic and environmental uncertainties. We identify five key systemic risk drivers, called disruptors, which could push China into a polycrisis pandemic disease, ageing and shrinking population, deglobalization, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Using an integrated simulation model, we quantify the effects of these disruptors on the country's long-term sustainability framed by 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Here we show that ageing and shrinking population, and climate change would be the two most influential disruptors on China's long-term sustainability. The compound effects of all disruptors could result in up to 2.1 and 7.0 points decline in the China's SDG score by 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline with no disruptors and no additional sustainability policies. However, an integrated policy portfolio involving investment in education, healthcare, energy transition, water-use efficiency, ecological conservation and restoration could promote resilience against the compound effects and significantly improve China's long-term sustainability.
Texto completo:
1
Temas:
ECOS
/
Financiamentos_gastos
Bases de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Mudança Climática
/
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais
/
Desenvolvimento Sustentável
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Commun
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China