Empirical validation of integrated stock assessment models to ensuring risk equivalence: A pathway to resilient fisheries management.
PLoS One
; 19(7): e0302576, 2024.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38954695
ABSTRACT
The Precautionary Approach to Fisheries Management requires an assessment of the impact of uncertainty on the risk of achieving management objectives. However, the main quantities, such as spawning stock biomass (SSB) and fish mortality (F), used in management metrics cannot be directly observed. This requires the use of models to provide guidance, for which there are three paradigms the best assessment, model ensemble, and Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE). It is important to validate the models used to provide advice. In this study, we demonstrate how stock assessment models can be validated using a diagnostic toolbox, with a specific focus on prediction skill. Prediction skill measures the precision of a predicted value, which is unknown to the model, in relation to its observed value. By evaluating the accuracy of model predictions against observed data, prediction skill establishes an objective framework for accepting or rejecting model hypotheses, as well as for assigning weights to models within an ensemble. Our analysis uncovers the limitations of traditional stock assessment methods. Through the quantification of uncertainties and the integration of multiple models, our objective is to improve the reliability of management advice considering the complex interplay of factors that influence the dynamics of fish stocks.
Texto completo:
1
Temas:
ECOS
/
Aspectos_gerais
Bases de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Pesqueiros
/
Peixes
Limite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS One
Assunto da revista:
CIENCIA
/
MEDICINA
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido