Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.

BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate. RESULTS: The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation. CONCLUSIONS: In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

The Survival Status and Predictors of Mortality Among Stroke Patients at North West Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Stroke is one of the commonest non-communicable disease types that has a great public health impact both in developed and developing countries. However, in Ethiopia, the long-term survival status of stroke patients is not very understood. This study aimed at assessing survival status and predictors of mortality among stroke patients at Felege Hiwot comprehensive specialized hospital from September 1, 2014, to August 31, 2019, Bahirdar, North West Ethiopia. METHODS: An institutional-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using 368 registered stroke patients between September 1, 2014, and August 31, 2019. We used Kaplan-Meier together with a Log-rank test to compare the survival rate of the study participants using categorical variables and to compare covariate and both bi-variable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis model was conducted to identify predictors of mortality among stroke patients. The association between outcome and independent variables was expressed using an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with a 95% confidence interval and statistical significances were declared at P-value of <0.05. RESULTS: Fifty-six (15.2%) of the 368 stroke patients included in the study died, and 312 (84.8%) were correctly censored. The overall survival rate was 72.2% at 51 months of follow-up with a median survival time of 0.26 months. Age greater than 65 (AHR 6.31, 95% CI 1.75-22.74), body temperature >7.1 degree centigrade (AHR = 7.14, 95% CI: 2.76-18.5), potassium level below <2 mmol/l (AHR = 2, 95% CI: 1.9-23.53) and creatinine level >1.2 mg/dl (AHR = 7.85, 95% CI: 2.7-22.6) were predictive predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In the follow-up of 51 months, significant mortality occurred. Important predictive predictors of survival status were identified. Interventions should be focused on health education and awareness creation of the community for the early management of stroke.

Magnitude of overweight and associated factors among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients at Mekelle public hospitals, Tigray, Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess magnitude of overweight and associated factors among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients at Mekelle public hospitals, Tigray, Ethiopia. RESULTS: A total of 365 participants were enrolled in this study. One hundred ninety-eight (54.2%) of the participants were males and 288 (78.9%) of the study participants were from an urban residence. In this study 161 (44.1%) and 12 (3.3%) of the study subjects were alcohol consumers and smokers respectively. Besides, 166 (45%) of the study participants had poor dietary intake and around 302 (82.7%) had low level of vigorous physical activity. The proportion of individuals who were overweight using body mass index as a measure was 149 (40.8%) and the proportion of individuals who had central obesity using waist circumference as a measure was 194 (53.2%). The magnitude of overweight among study participants from urban residence and alcohol consumers was 138 (92.6%) and 93 (62.4%) respectively. Residence area, alcohol consumption, physical activities, central obesity and dietary intake were the determinant factors for overweight among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. OBJECTIVES: The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. METHODS: CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. RESULTS: In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75. CONCLUSIONS: CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.