Pre-diagnostic circulating resistin concentrations and mortality among individuals with colorectal cancer: Results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

Resistin is a protein involved in inflammation and angiogenesis processes and may play a role in the progression of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it remains unclear whether resistin is associated with increased mortality after CRC diagnosis. We examined pre-diagnostic serum resistin concentrations in relation to CRC-specific and all-cause mortality among 1343 incident CRC cases from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. For CRC-specific mortality as the primary outcome, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated from competing risk analyses based on cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models and further in sensitivity analyses using Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards models. For all-cause mortality as the secondary outcome, Cox proportional hazards models were used. Subgroup analyses were performed by sex, tumor subsite, tumor stage, body mass index and time to CRC diagnosis. Resistin was measured on a median of 4.8 years before CRC diagnosis. During a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 474 deaths from CRC and 147 deaths from other causes were observed. Resistin concentrations were not associated with CRC-specific mortality (HRQ4vsQ1 = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.73-1.23; Ptrend = .97; and HRper doubling of resistin concentration = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.84-1.19; P = .98) or all-cause mortality. Results from competing risk (sensitivity) analysis were similar. No associations were found in any subgroup analyses. These findings suggest no association between pre-diagnostic circulating resistin concentrations and CRC-specific or all-cause mortality among persons with CRC, and the potential insignificance of resistin in CRC progression.

Dietary amino acids and risk of stroke subtypes: a prospective analysis of 356,000 participants in seven European countries.

PURPOSE: Previously reported associations of protein-rich foods with stroke subtypes have prompted interest in the assessment of individual amino acids. We examined the associations of dietary amino acids with risks of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke in the EPIC study. METHODS: We analysed data from 356,142 participants from seven European countries. Dietary intakes of 19 individual amino acids were assessed using validated country-specific dietary questionnaires, calibrated using additional 24-h dietary recalls. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke in relation to the intake of each amino acid. The role of blood pressure as a potential mechanism was assessed in 267,642 (75%) participants. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 12.9 years, 4295 participants had an ischaemic stroke and 1375 participants had a haemorrhagic stroke. After correction for multiple testing, a higher intake of proline (as a percent of total protein) was associated with a 12% lower risk of ischaemic stroke (HR per 1 SD higher intake 0.88; 95% CI 0.82, 0.94). The association persisted after mutual adjustment for all other amino acids, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. The inverse associations of isoleucine, leucine, valine, phenylalanine, threonine, tryptophan, glutamic acid, serine and tyrosine with ischaemic stroke were each attenuated with adjustment for proline intake. For haemorrhagic stroke, no statistically significant associations were observed in the continuous analyses after correcting for multiple testing. CONCLUSION: Higher proline intake may be associated with a lower risk of ischaemic stroke, independent of other dietary amino acids and blood pressure.

Biomarker signatures associated with ageing free of major chronic diseases: results from a population-based sample of the EPIC-Potsdam cohort.

BACKGROUND: A number of biomarkers denoting various pathophysiological pathways have been implicated in the aetiology and risk of age-related diseases. Hence, the combined impact of multiple biomarkers in relation to ageing free of major chronic diseases, such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, has not been sufficiently explored. METHODS: We measured concentrations of 13 biomarkers in a random subcohort of 2,500 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Potsdam study. Chronic disease-free ageing was defined as reaching the age of 70 years within study follow-up without major chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes or cancer. Using a novel machine-learning technique, we aimed to identify biomarker clusters and explore their association with chronic disease-free ageing in multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analysis taking socio-demographic, lifestyle and anthropometric factors into account. RESULTS: Of the participants who reached the age of 70 years, 321 met our criteria for chronic-disease free ageing. Machine learning analysis identified three distinct biomarker clusters, among which a signature characterised by high concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, adiponectin and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 2 and low concentrations of triglycerides was associated with highest odds for ageing free of major chronic diseases. After multivariable adjustment, the association was attenuated by socio-demographic, lifestyle and adiposity indicators, pointing to the relative importance of these factors as determinants of healthy ageing. CONCLUSION: These data underline the importance of exploring combinations of biomarkers rather than single molecules in understanding complex biological pathways underpinning healthy ageing.

Prospective and Mendelian randomization analyses on the association of circulating fatty acid binding protein 4 (FABP-4) and risk of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Fatty acid binding protein 4 (FABP-4) is a lipid-binding adipokine upregulated in obesity, which may facilitate fatty acid supply for tumor growth and promote insulin resistance and inflammation and may thus play a role in colorectal cancer (CRC) development. We aimed to investigate the association between circulating FABP-4 and CRC and to assess potential causality using a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. METHODS: The association between pre-diagnostic plasma measurements of FABP-4 and CRC risk was investigated in a nested case-control study in 1324 CRC cases and the same number of matched controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. A two-sample Mendelian randomization study was conducted based on three genetic variants (1 cis, 2 trans) associated with circulating FABP-4 identified in a published genome-wide association study (discovery n = 20,436) and data from 58,131 CRC cases and 67,347 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry. RESULTS: In conditional logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders including body size, the estimated relative risk, RR (95% confidence interval, CI) per one standard deviation, SD (8.9 ng/mL) higher FABP-4 concentration was 1.01 (0.92, 1.12) overall, 0.95 (0.80, 1.13) in men and 1.09 (0.95, 1.25) in women. Genetically determined higher FABP-4 was not associated with colorectal cancer risk (RR per FABP-4 SD was 1.10 (0.95, 1.27) overall, 1.03 (0.84, 1.26) in men and 1.21 (0.98, 1.48) in women). However, in a cis-MR approach, a statistically significant association was observed in women (RR 1.56, 1.09, 2.23) but not overall (RR 1.23, 0.97, 1.57) or in men (0.99, 0.71, 1.37). CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, these analyses provide no support for a causal role of circulating FABP-4 in the development of CRC, although the cis-MR provides some evidence for a positive association in women, which may deserve to be investigated further.

Metabolic Signatures of Healthy Lifestyle Patterns and Colorectal Cancer Risk in a European Cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colorectal cancer risk can be lowered by adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) guidelines. We derived metabolic signatures of adherence to these guidelines and tested their associations with colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. METHODS: Scores reflecting adherence to the WCRF/AICR recommendations (scale, 1-5) were calculated from participant data on weight maintenance, physical activity, diet, and alcohol among a discovery set of 5738 cancer-free European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition participants with metabolomics data. Partial least-squares regression was used to derive fatty acid and endogenous metabolite signatures of the WCRF/AICR score in this group. In an independent set of 1608 colorectal cancer cases and matched controls, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were calculated for colorectal cancer risk per unit increase in WCRF/AICR score and per the corresponding change in metabolic signatures using multivariable conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Higher WCRF/AICR scores were characterized by metabolic signatures of increased odd-chain fatty acids, serine, glycine, and specific phosphatidylcholines. Signatures were inversely associated more strongly with colorectal cancer risk (fatty acids: OR, 0.51 per unit increase; 95% CI, 0.29-0.90; endogenous metabolites: OR, 0.62 per unit change; 95% CI, 0.50-0.78) than the WCRF/AICR score (OR, 0.93 per unit change; 95% CI, 0.86-1.00) overall. Signature associations were stronger in male compared with female participants. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolite profiles reflecting adherence to WCRF/AICR guidelines and additional lifestyle or biological risk factors were associated with colorectal cancer. Measuring a specific panel of metabolites representative of a healthy or unhealthy lifestyle may identify strata of the population at higher risk of colorectal cancer.

Circulating inflammatory biomarkers, adipokines and breast cancer risk-a case-control study nested within the EPIC cohort.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation has been hypothesized to play a role in the development and progression of breast cancer and might differently impact breast cancer risk among pre and postmenopausal women. We performed a nested case-control study to examine whether pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of adiponectin, leptin, c-reactive protein (CRP), tumour necrosis factor-α, interferon-γ and 6 interleukins were associated with breast cancer risk, overall and by menopausal status. METHODS: Pre-diagnostic levels of inflammatory biomarkers were measured in plasma from 1558 case-control pairs from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of breast cancer at blood collection, per one standard deviation increase in biomarker concentration. RESULTS: Cases were diagnosed at a mean age of 61.4 years on average 8.6 years after blood collection. No statistically significant association was observed between inflammatory markers and breast cancer risk overall. In premenopausal women, borderline significant inverse associations were observed for leptin, leptin-to-adiponectin ratio and CRP [OR= 0.89 (0.77-1.03), OR= 0.88 (0.76-1.01) and OR= 0.87 (0.75-1.01), respectively] while positive associations were observed among postmenopausal women [OR= 1.16 (1.05-1.29), OR= 1.11 (1.01-1.23), OR= 1.10 (0.99-1.22), respectively]. Adjustment for BMI strengthened the estimates in premenopausal women [leptin: OR = 0.83 (0.68-1.00), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 0.80 (0.66-0.97), CRP: OR = 0.85 (0.72-1.00)] but attenuated the estimates in postmenopausal women [leptin: OR = 1.09 (0.96-1.24), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 1.02 (0.89-1.16), CRP: OR = 1.04 (0.92-1.16)]. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between CRP, leptin and leptin-to-adiponectin ratio with breast cancer risk may represent the dual effect of obesity by menopausal status although this deserves further investigation.

Gallstones, Body Mass Index, C-Reactive Protein, and Gallbladder Cancer: Mendelian Randomization Analysis of Chilean and European Genotype Data.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is a neglected disease with substantial geographical variability: Chile shows the highest incidence worldwide, while GBC is relatively rare in Europe. Here, we investigate the causal effects of risk factors considered in current GBC prevention programs as well as C-reactive protein (CRP) level as a marker of chronic inflammation. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We applied two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) using publicly available data and our own data from a retrospective Chilean and a prospective European study. Causality was assessed by inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR-Egger regression, and weighted median estimates complemented with sensitivity analyses on potential heterogeneity and pleiotropy, two-step MR, and mediation analysis. We found evidence for a causal effect of gallstone disease on GBC risk in Chileans (P = 9 × 10-5 ) and Europeans (P = 9 × 10-5 ). A genetically elevated body mass index (BMI) increased GBC risk in Chileans (P = 0.03), while higher CRP concentrations increased GBC risk in Europeans (P = 4.1 × 10-6 ). European results suggest causal effects of BMI on gallstone disease (P = 0.008); public Chilean data were not, however, available to enable assessment of the mediation effects among causal GBC risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Two risk factors considered in the current Chilean program for GBC prevention are causally linked to GBC risk: gallstones and BMI. For Europeans, BMI showed a causal effect on gallstone risk, which was itself causally linked to GBC risk.

Impact of cumulative body mass index and cardiometabolic diseases on survival among patients with colorectal and breast cancer: a multi-centre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI) and cardiometabolic comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes have been studied as negative prognostic factors in cancer survival, but possible dependencies in the mechanisms underlying these associations remain largely unexplored. We analysed these associations in colorectal and breast cancer patients. METHODS: Based on repeated BMI assessments of cancer-free participants from four European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study, individual BMI-trajectories reflecting predicted mean BMI between ages 20 to 50 years were estimated using a growth curve model. Participants with incident colorectal or breast cancer after the age of 50 years were included in the survival analysis to study the prognostic effect of mean BMI and cardiometabolic diseases (CMD) prior to cancer. CMD were defined as one or more chronic conditions among stroke, myocardial infarction, and type 2 diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) of mean BMI and CMD were derived using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression for mean BMI and CMD separately and both exposures combined, in subgroups of localised and advanced disease. RESULTS: In the total cohort of 159,045 participants, there were 1,045 and 1,620 eligible patients of colorectal and breast cancer. In colorectal cancer patients, a higher BMI (by 1 kg/m2) was associated with a 6% increase in risk of death (95% CI of HR: 1.02-1.10). The HR for CMD was 1.25 (95% CI: 0.97-1.61). The associations for both exposures were stronger in patients with localised colorectal cancer. In breast cancer patients, a higher BMI was associated with a 4% increase in risk of death (95% CI: 1.00-1.08). CMDs were associated with a 46% increase in risk of death (95% CI: 1.01-2.09). The estimates and CIs for BMI remained similar after adjustment for CMD and vice versa. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that cumulative exposure to higher BMI during early to mid-adulthood was associated with poorer survival in patients with breast and colorectal cancer, independent of CMD prior to cancer diagnosis. The association between a CMD diagnosis prior to cancer and survival in patients with breast and colorectal cancer was independent of BMI.

Pre-diagnostic C-reactive protein concentrations, CRP genetic variation and mortality among individuals with colorectal cancer in Western European populations.

BACKGROUND: The role of elevated pre-diagnostic C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations on mortality in individuals with colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear. METHODS: We investigated the association between pre-diagnostic high-sensitivity CRP concentrations and CRP genetic variation associated with circulating CRP and CRC-specific and all-cause mortality based on data from 1,235 individuals with CRC within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 455 CRC-specific deaths were recorded, out of 590 deaths from all causes. Pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations were not associated with CRC-specific (hazard ratio, HR highest versus lowest quintile 0.92, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.66, 1.28) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.68, 1.21). Genetic predisposition to higher CRP (weighted score based on alleles of four CRP SNPs associated with higher circulating CRP) was not significantly associated with CRC-specific mortality (HR per CRP-score unit 0.95, 95% CI 0.86, 1.05) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.90, 1.07). Among four investigated CRP genetic variants, only SNP rs1205 was significantly associated with CRC-specific (comparing the CT and CC genotypes with TT genotype, HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.35, 0.83 and HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38, 0.88, respectively) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40, 0.85 and 0.64, 95% CI 0.44, 0.92, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this prospective cohort study do not support a role of pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations on mortality in individuals with CRC. The observed associations with rs1205 deserve further scientific attention.

Plasma concentrations of advanced glycation end-products and colorectal cancer risk in the EPIC study.

Advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) are a heterogeneous group of compounds formed by the non-enzymatic reaction between amino acids and reducing sugars, or dicarbonyls as intermediate compounds. Experimental studies suggest that AGEs may promote colorectal cancer, but prospective epidemiologic studies are inconclusive. We conducted a case-control study nested within a large European cohort. Plasma concentrations of three protein-bound AGEs-Nε-(carboxy-methyl)lysine (CML), Nε-(carboxy-ethyl)lysine (CEL) and Nδ-(5-hydro-5-methyl-4-imidazolon-2-yl)-ornithine (MG-H1)-were measured by ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in baseline samples collected from 1378 incident primary colorectal cancer cases and 1378 matched controls. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using conditional logistic regression for colorectal cancer risk associated with CML, CEL, MG-H1, total AGEs, and [CEL+MG-H1: CML] and [CEL:MG-H1] ratios. Inverse colorectal cancer risk associations were observed for CML (OR comparing highest to lowest quintile, ORQ5 versus Q1 = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.27-0.59), MG-H1 (ORQ5 versus Q1 = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.53-1.00) and total AGEs (OR Q5 versus Q1 = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.37-0.73), whereas no association was observed for CEL. A higher [CEL+MG-H1: CML] ratio was associated with colorectal cancer risk (ORQ5 versus Q1 = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.31-2.79). The associations observed did not differ by sex, or by tumour anatomical sub-site. Although individual AGEs concentrations appear to be inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk, a higher ratio of methylglyoxal-derived AGEs versus those derived from glyoxal (calculated by [CEL+MG-H1: CML] ratio) showed a strong positive risk association. Further insight on the metabolism of AGEs and their dicarbonyls precursors, and their roles in colorectal cancer development is needed.

Dietary intake of advanced glycation endproducts and risk of hepatobiliary cancers: A multinational cohort study.

Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) may contribute to liver carcinogenesis because of their proinflammatory and prooxidative properties. Diet is a major source of AGEs, but there is sparse human evidence on the role of AGEs intake in liver cancer etiology. We examined the association between dietary AGEs and the risk of hepatobiliary cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition prospective cohort (n = 450 111). Dietary intake of three AGEs, Nε -[carboxymethyl]lysine (CML), Nε -[1-carboxyethyl]lysine (CEL) and Nδ -[5-hydro-5-methyl-4-imidazolon-2-yl]-ornithine (MG-H1), was estimated using country-specific dietary questionnaires linked to an AGEs database. Cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between dietary AGEs and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), gallbladder and biliary tract cancers were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression. After a median follow-up time of 14.9 years, 255 cases of HCC, 100 cases of gallbladder cancer and 173 biliary tract cancers were ascertained. Higher intakes of dietary AGEs were inversely associated with the risk of HCC (per 1 SD increment, HR-CML  = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.76-0.99, HR-CEL  = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.74-0.96 and HR-MH-G1  = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.74-0.97). In contrast, positive associations were observed with risk of gallbladder cancer (per 1 SD, HR-CML  = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.05-1.56, HR-CEL  = 1.17; 95% CI: 0.96-1.40, HR-MH-G1  = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.06-1.54). No associations were observed for cancers of the intra and extrahepatic bile ducts. Our findings suggest that higher intakes of dietary AGEs are inversely associated with the risk of HCC and positively associated with the risk of gallbladder cancer.

Metabolic perturbations prior to hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis: Findings from a prospective observational cohort study.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development entails changes in liver metabolism. Current knowledge on metabolic perturbations in HCC is derived mostly from case-control designs, with sparse information from prospective cohorts. Our objective was to apply comprehensive metabolite profiling to detect metabolites whose serum concentrations are associated with HCC development, using biological samples from within the prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (>520 000 participants), where we identified 129 HCC cases matched 1:1 to controls. We conducted high-resolution untargeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based metabolomics on serum samples collected at recruitment prior to cancer diagnosis. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was applied controlling for dietary habits, alcohol consumption, smoking, body size, hepatitis infection and liver dysfunction. Corrections for multiple comparisons were applied. Of 9206 molecular features detected, 220 discriminated HCC cases from controls. Detailed feature annotation revealed 92 metabolites associated with HCC risk, of which 14 were unambiguously identified using pure reference standards. Positive HCC-risk associations were observed for N1-acetylspermidine, isatin, p-hydroxyphenyllactic acid, tyrosine, sphingosine, l,l-cyclo(leucylprolyl), glycochenodeoxycholic acid, glycocholic acid and 7-methylguanine. Inverse risk associations were observed for retinol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, glycerophosphocholine, γ-carboxyethyl hydroxychroman and creatine. Discernible differences for these metabolites were observed between cases and controls up to 10 years prior to diagnosis. Our observations highlight the diversity of metabolic perturbations involved in HCC development and replicate previous observations (metabolism of bile acids, amino acids and phospholipids) made in Asian and Scandinavian populations. These findings emphasize the role of metabolic pathways associated with steroid metabolism and immunity and specific dietary and environmental exposures in HCC development.

Metabolic signatures of greater body size and their associations with risk of colorectal and endometrial cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms underlying the obesity-cancer relationship are incompletely understood. This study aimed to characterise metabolic signatures of greater body size and to investigate their association with two obesity-related malignancies, endometrial and colorectal cancers, and with weight loss within the context of an intervention study. METHODS: Targeted mass spectrometry metabolomics data from 4326 participants enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort and 17 individuals from a single-arm pilot weight loss intervention (Intercept) were used in this analysis. Metabolic signatures of body size were first determined in discovery (N = 3029) and replication (N = 1297) sets among EPIC participants by testing the associations between 129 metabolites and body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) using linear regression models followed by partial least squares analyses. Conditional logistic regression models assessed the associations between the metabolic signatures with endometrial (N = 635 cases and 648 controls) and colorectal (N = 423 cases and 423 controls) cancer risk using nested case-control studies in EPIC. Pearson correlation between changes in the metabolic signatures and weight loss was tested among Intercept participants. RESULTS: After adjustment for multiple comparisons, greater BMI, WC, and WHR were associated with higher levels of valine, isoleucine, glutamate, PC aa C38:3, and PC aa C38:4 and with lower levels of asparagine, glutamine, glycine, serine, lysoPC C17:0, lysoPC C18:1, lysoPC C18:2, PC aa C42:0, PC ae C34:3, PC ae C40:5, and PC ae C42:5. The metabolic signature of BMI (OR1-sd 1.50, 95% CI 1.30-1.74), WC (OR1-sd 1.46, 95% CI 1.27-1.69), and WHR (OR1-sd 1.54, 95% CI 1.33-1.79) were each associated with endometrial cancer risk. Risk of colorectal cancer was positively associated with the metabolic signature of WHR (OR1-sd: 1.26, 95% CI 1.07-1.49). In the Intercept study, a positive correlation was observed between weight loss and changes in the metabolic signatures of BMI (r = 0.5, 95% CI 0.06-0.94, p = 0.03), WC (r = 0.5, 95% CI 0.05-0.94, p = 0.03), and WHR (r = 0.6, 95% CI 0.32-0.87, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is associated with a distinct metabolic signature comprising changes in levels of specific amino acids and lipids which is positively associated with both colorectal and endometrial cancer and is potentially reversible following weight loss.

Development and validation of a lifestyle-based model for colorectal cancer risk prediction: the LiFeCRC score.

BACKGROUND: Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. METHODS: The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992-2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. RESULTS: The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell's C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264-0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084-0.575)). CONCLUSIONS: LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level.

Inflammatory potential of the diet and risk of breast cancer in the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

The role of chronic inflammation on breast cancer (BC) risk remains unclear beyond as an underlying mechanism of obesity and physical activity. We aimed to evaluate the association between the inflammatory potential of the diet and risk of BC overall, according to menopausal status and tumour subtypes. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, 318,686 women were followed for 14 years, among whom 13,246 incident BC cases were identified. The inflammatory potential of the diet was characterized by an inflammatory score of the diet (ISD). Multivariable Cox regression models were used to assess the potential effect of the ISD on BC risk by means of hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). ISD was positively associated with BC risk. Each increase of one standard deviation (1-Sd) of the score increased by 4% the risk of BC (HR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.07). Women in the highest quintile of the ISD (indicating a most pro-inflammatory diet) had a 12% increase in risk compared with those in the lowest quintile (HR = 1.12; 95% CI 1.04-1.21) with a significant trend. The association was strongest among premenopausal women, with an 8% increased risk for 1-Sd increase in the score (HR = 1.08; 95% CI 1.01-1.14). The pattern of the association was quite homogeneous by BC subtypes based on hormone receptor status. There were no significant interactions between ISD and body mass index, physical activity, or alcohol consumption. Women consuming more pro-inflammatory diets as measured by ISD are at increased risk for BC, especially premenopausal women.

Circulating bilirubin levels and risk of colorectal cancer: serological and Mendelian randomization analyses.

BACKGROUND: Bilirubin, a byproduct of hemoglobin breakdown and purported anti-oxidant, is thought to be cancer preventive. We conducted complementary serological and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate whether alterations in circulating levels of bilirubin are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We decided a priori to perform analyses separately in men and women based on suggestive evidence that associations may differ by sex. METHODS: In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), pre-diagnostic unconjugated bilirubin (UCB, the main component of total bilirubin) concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma samples of 1386 CRC cases and their individually matched controls. Additionally, 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated (P < 5 × 10-8) with circulating total bilirubin were instrumented in a 2-sample MR to test for a potential causal effect of bilirubin on CRC risk in 52,775 CRC cases and 45,940 matched controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), and the Colorectal Transdisciplinary (CORECT) study. RESULTS: The associations between circulating UCB levels and CRC risk differed by sex (Pheterogeneity = 0.008). Among men, higher levels of UCB were positively associated with CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04-1.36; per 1-SD increment of log-UCB). In women, an inverse association was observed (OR = 0.86 (0.76-0.97)). In the MR analysis of the main UGT1A1 SNP (rs6431625), genetically predicted higher levels of total bilirubin were associated with a 7% increase in CRC risk in men (OR = 1.07 (1.02-1.12); P = 0.006; per 1-SD increment of total bilirubin), while there was no association in women (OR = 1.01 (0.96-1.06); P = 0.73). Raised bilirubin levels, predicted by instrumental variables excluding rs6431625, were suggestive of an inverse association with CRC in men, but not in women. These differences by sex did not reach formal statistical significance (Pheterogeneity ≥ 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Additional insight into the relationship between circulating bilirubin and CRC is needed in order to conclude on a potential causal role of bilirubin in CRC development.

Validation of two US breast cancer risk prediction models in German women.

PURPOSE: There are no models for German women that predict absolute risk of invasive breast cancer (BC), i.e., the probability of developing BC over a prespecified time period, given a woman's age and characteristics, while accounting for competing risks. We thus validated two absolute BC risk models (BCRAT, BCRmod) developed for US women in German women. BCRAT uses a woman's medical, reproductive, and BC family history; BCRmod adds modifiable risk factors (body mass index, hormone replacement therapy and alcohol use). METHODS: We assessed model calibration by comparing observed BC numbers (O) to expected numbers (E) computed from BCRmod/BCRAT for German women enrolled in the prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), and after updating the models with German BC incidence/competing mortality rates. We also compared 1-year BC risk predicted for all German women using the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS) with overall German BC incidence. Discriminatory performance was quantified by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC). RESULTS: Among 22,098 EPIC-Germany women aged 40+ years, 745 BCs occurred (median follow-up: 11.9 years). Both models had good calibration for total follow-up, EBCRmod/O = 1.08 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.21), and EBCRAT/O = 0.99(0.87-1.11), and over 5 years. Compared to German BC incidence rates, both models somewhat overestimated 1-year risk for women aged 55+ and 70+ years. For total follow-up, AUCBCRmod = 0.61(0.58-0.63) and AUCBCRAT = 0.58(0.56-0.61), with similar values for 5-year follow-up. CONCLUSION: US BC risk models showed adequate calibration in German women. Discriminatory performance was comparable to that in US women. These models thus could be applied for risk prediction in German women.

Plasma polyphenols associated with lower high-sensitivity C-reactive protein concentrations: a cross-sectional study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

Experimental studies have reported on the anti-inflammatory properties of polyphenols. However, results from epidemiological investigations have been inconsistent and especially studies using biomarkers for assessment of polyphenol intake have been scant. We aimed to characterise the association between plasma concentrations of thirty-five polyphenol compounds and low-grade systemic inflammation state as measured by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). A cross-sectional data analysis was performed based on 315 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort with available measurements of plasma polyphenols and hsCRP. In logistic regression analysis, the OR and 95 % CI of elevated serum hsCRP (>3 mg/l) were calculated within quartiles and per standard deviation higher level of plasma polyphenol concentrations. In a multivariable-adjusted model, the sum of plasma concentrations of all polyphenols measured (per standard deviation) was associated with 29 (95 % CI 50, 1) % lower odds of elevated hsCRP. In the class of flavonoids, daidzein was inversely associated with elevated hsCRP (OR 0·66, 95 % CI 0·46, 0·96). Among phenolic acids, statistically significant associations were observed for 3,5-dihydroxyphenylpropionic acid (OR 0·58, 95 % CI 0·39, 0·86), 3,4-dihydroxyphenylpropionic acid (OR 0·63, 95 % CI 0·46, 0·87), ferulic acid (OR 0·65, 95 % CI 0·44, 0·96) and caffeic acid (OR 0·69, 95 % CI 0·51, 0·93). The odds of elevated hsCRP were significantly reduced for hydroxytyrosol (OR 0·67, 95 % CI 0·48, 0·93). The present study showed that polyphenol biomarkers are associated with lower odds of elevated hsCRP. Whether diet rich in bioactive polyphenol compounds could be an effective strategy to prevent or modulate deleterious health effects of inflammation should be addressed by further well-powered longitudinal studies.

Comparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals: a systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts. DESIGN: Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability). RESULTS: The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC. CONCLUSION: Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained.

CA19-9 and apolipoprotein-A2 isoforms as detection markers for pancreatic cancer: a prospective evaluation.

Recently, we identified unique processing patterns of apolipoprotein A2 (ApoA2) in patients with pancreatic cancer. Our study provides a first prospective evaluation of an ApoA2 isoform ("ApoA2-ATQ/AT"), alone and in combination with carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), as an early detection biomarker for pancreatic cancer. We performed ELISA measurements of CA19-9 and ApoA2-ATQ/AT in 156 patients with pancreatic cancer and 217 matched controls within the European EPIC cohort, using plasma samples collected up to 60 months prior to diagnosis. The detection discrimination statistics were calculated for risk scores by strata of lag-time. For CA19-9, in univariate marker analyses, C-statistics to distinguish future pancreatic cancer patients from cancer-free individuals were 0.80 for plasma taken ≤6 months before diagnosis, and 0.71 for >6-18 months; for ApoA2-ATQ/AT, C-statistics were 0.62, and 0.65, respectively. Joint models based on ApoA2-ATQ/AT plus CA19-9 significantly improved discrimination within >6-18 months (C = 0.74 vs. 0.71 for CA19-9 alone, p = 0.022) and ≤ 18 months (C = 0.75 vs. 0.74, p = 0.022). At 98% specificity, and for lag times of ≤6, >6-18 or ≤ 18 months, sensitivities were 57%, 36% and 43% for CA19-9 combined with ApoA2-ATQ/AT, respectively, vs. 50%, 29% and 36% for CA19-9 alone. Compared to CA19-9 alone, the combination of CA19-9 and ApoA2-ATQ/AT may improve detection of pancreatic cancer up to 18 months prior to diagnosis under usual care, and may provide a useful first measure for pancreatic cancer detection prior to imaging.