Genetic insights into biological mechanisms governing human ovarian ageing.

Reproductive longevity is essential for fertility and influences healthy ageing in women1,2, but insights into its underlying biological mechanisms and treatments to preserve it are limited. Here we identify 290 genetic determinants of ovarian ageing, assessed using normal variation in age at natural menopause (ANM) in about 200,000 women of European ancestry. These common alleles were associated with clinical extremes of ANM; women in the top 1% of genetic susceptibility have an equivalent risk of premature ovarian insufficiency to those carrying monogenic FMR1 premutations3. The identified loci implicate a broad range of DNA damage response (DDR) processes and include loss-of-function variants in key DDR-associated genes. Integration with experimental models demonstrates that these DDR processes act across the life-course to shape the ovarian reserve and its rate of depletion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that experimental manipulation of DDR pathways highlighted by human genetics increases fertility and extends reproductive life in mice. Causal inference analyses using the identified genetic variants indicate that extending reproductive life in women improves bone health and reduces risk of type 2 diabetes, but increases the risk of hormone-sensitive cancers. These findings provide insight into the mechanisms that govern ovarian ageing, when they act, and how they might be targeted by therapeutic approaches to extend fertility and prevent disease.

Associations of Modifiable Behavioral Risk Factor Combinations at 65 to 74 Years Old With Cognitive Health Span for 20 Years.

OBJECTIVE: Behavioral risk factors for dementia tend to co-occur and interrelate, especially poor diet, physical inactivity, sleep disturbances, and depression. Having multiple of these modifiable behavioral risk factors (MBRFs) may predict a particularly shortened cognitive health span and therefore may signal high-risk status/high intervention need. METHODS: These secondary analyses of data from the Cardiovascular Health Study included 3149 participants aged 65 to 74 years (mean [standard deviation {SD}] age = 69.5 [2.5] years; 59.6% female). MBRF exposures were self-reports regarding a) diet, b) activity, c) sleep, and d) depression symptoms. We primarily analyzed MBRF counts. For up to 26 years of follow-up, we assessed the a) number of remaining cognitively healthy life-years (CHLYs) and b) percentage of remaining life-years (LYs) that were CHLYs (%CHLY). We estimated CHLYs as time before a dementia diagnosis, cognitive screener scores indicating impairment, proxy report indicating significant cognitive decline, or dementia medication use. RESULTS: Participants averaged a remaining 16 LYs (SD = 7 LYs), 12.2 CHLYs (SD = 6.6 CHLYs), and 78.1% of LYs being CHLYs (SD = 25.6 CHLYs). Compared with having no MBRFs, having one was associated with ~1 less LY and CHLY, but not a relatively lower %CHLY. In contrast, having 3+ MBRFs was associated with about 2 to 3 fewer LYs and CHLYs as well as about 6% lower %CHLY (95% confidence interval = -9.0 to -2.5 %CHLYs; p = .001). CONCLUSIONS: MBRF-related reductions in the cognitive health span are most apparent when people have multiple MBRFs. Future research is needed to determine if/how behavioral risks converge mechanistically and if dementia prevention efficacy improves when targeting MBRF combinations.

Trajectories of Nonagenarian Health: Sex, Age, and Period Effects.

The US population aged 90 years or more is growing rapidly, and there are limited data on their health. The Cardiovascular Health Study is a prospective study of black and white adults aged ≥65 years recruited in 2 waves (1989-1990 and 1992-1993) from Medicare eligibility lists in Forsyth County, North Carolina; Sacramento County, California; Washington County, Maryland; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. We created a synthetic cohort of the 1,889 participants who had reached age 90 years at baseline or during follow-up through July 16, 2015. Participants entered the cohort at 90 years of age, and we evaluated their changes in health after age 90 years (median duration of follow-up, 3 years (interquartile range, 1.3-5)). Measures of health included cardiovascular events, cognitive function, depressive symptoms, prescription medications, self-rated health, and functional status. The mortality rate was high: 19.0 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval : 17.8, 20.3) in women and 20.9 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval: 19.2, 22.8) in men. Cognitive function and all measures of functional status declined with age; these changes were similar by sex. When we isolated period effects, we found that medication use increased over time. These estimates can help inform future research and can help health-care systems meet the needs of this growing population.

Detection of genetic loci associated with plasma fetuin-A: a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies from the CHARGE Consortium.

Plasma fetuin-A is associated with type 2 diabetes, and AHSG, the gene encoding fetuin-A, has been identified as a susceptibility locus for diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Thus far, unbiased investigations of the genetic determinants of plasma fetuin-A concentrations have not been conducted. We searched for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to fetuin-A concentrations by a genome-wide association study in six population-based studies. We examined the association of fetuin-A levels with ∼ 2.5 million genotyped and imputed SNPs in 9,055 participants of European descent and 2,119 African Americans. In both ethnicities, the strongest associations were centered in a region with a high degree of LD near the AHSG locus. Among 136 genome-wide significant (P < 0.05 × 10-8) SNPs near the AHSG locus, the top SNP was rs4917 (P =1.27 × 10-303), a known coding SNP in exon 6 that is associated with a 0.06 g/l (∼13%) lower fetuin-A level. This variant alone explained 14% of the variation in fetuin-A levels. Analyses conditioned on rs4917 indicated that the strong association with the AHSG locus stems from additional independent associations of multiple variants among European Americans. In conclusion, levels of fetuin-A in plasma are strongly associated with SNPs in its encoding gene, AHSG, but not elsewhere in the genome. Given the strength of the associations observed for multiple independent SNPs, the AHSG gene is an example of a candidate locus suitable for additional investigations including fine mapping to elucidate the biological basis of the findings and further functional experiments to clarify AHSG as a potential therapeutic target.

Study of Cardiovascular Health Outcomes in the Era of Claims Data: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly, the diagnostic codes from administrative claims data are being used as clinical outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) were used to compare event rates and risk factor associations between adjudicated hospitalized cardiovascular events and claims-based methods of defining events. The outcomes of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure were defined in 3 ways: the CHS adjudicated event (CHS[adj]), selected International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition diagnostic codes only in the primary position for Medicare claims data from the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS[1st]), and the same selected diagnostic codes in any position (CMS[any]). Conventional claims-based methods of defining events had high positive predictive values but low sensitivities. For instance, the positive predictive value of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition code 410.x1 for a new acute MI in the first position was 90.6%, but this code identified only 53.8% of incident MIs. The observed event rates for CMS[1st] were low. For MI, the incidence was 14.9 events per 1000 person-years for CHS[adj] MI, 8.6 for CMS[1st] MI, and 12.2 for CMS[any] MI. In general, cardiovascular disease risk factor associations were similar across the 3 methods of defining events. Indeed, traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors were also associated with all first hospitalizations not resulting from an MI. CONCLUSIONS: The use of diagnostic codes from claims data as clinical events, especially when restricted to primary diagnoses, leads to an underestimation of event rates. Additionally, claims-based events data represent a composite end point that includes the outcome of interest and selected (misclassified) nonevent hospitalizations.

Factors Associated With Ischemic Stroke Survival and Recovery in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Little is known about factors that predispose older adults to poor recovery after a stroke. In this study, we sought to evaluate prestroke measures of frailty and related factors as markers of vulnerability to poor outcomes after ischemic stroke. METHODS: In participants aged 65 to 99 years with incident ischemic strokes from the Cardiovascular Health Study, we evaluated the association of several risk factors (frailty, frailty components, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and cystatin C) assessed before stroke with stroke outcomes of survival, cognitive decline (≥5 points on Modified Mini-Mental State Examination), and activities of daily living decline (increase in limitations). RESULTS: Among 717 participants with incident ischemic stroke with survival data, slow walking speed, low grip strength, and cystatin C were independently associated with shorter survival. Among participants <80 years of age, frailty and interleukin-6 were also associated with shorter survival. Among 509 participants with recovery data, slow walking speed, and low grip strength were associated with both cognitive and activities of daily living decline poststroke. C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 were associated with poststroke cognitive decline among men only. Frailty status was associated with activities of daily living decline among women only. CONCLUSIONS: Markers of physical function-walking speed and grip strength-were consistently associated with survival and recovery after ischemic stroke. Inflammation, kidney function, and frailty also seemed to be determinants of survival and recovery after an ischemic stroke. These markers of vulnerability may identify targets for differing pre and poststroke medical management and rehabilitation among older adults at risk of poor stroke outcomes.

Lipoprotein-Associated Phospholipase A2 and Incident Peripheral Arterial Disease in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: Although prior studies report a relationship between elevated lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) and incident cardiovascular disease, the prospective association of Lp-PLA2 with incident peripheral arterial disease (PAD) has not been studied. We investigated the association between Lp-PLA2 mass and activity and the risk of developing clinical PAD and low ankle-brachial index (ABI). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Among Cardiovascular Health Study participants, a population-based cohort of 5888 adults aged ≥65 years enrolled in 1989 to 1990, Lp-PLA2 mass and activity were measured in 4537 individuals without baseline PAD. Clinical PAD, defined as leg artery revascularization or diagnosed claudication, was ascertained through 2011. Incident low ABI, defined as ABI <0.9 and decline of ≥0.15, was assessed among 3537 individuals who had an ABI >0.9 at baseline and a second ABI measurement 3 or 6 years later. Analyses were adjusted for demographics, cholesterol, smoking, comorbidities, and C-reactive protein. Each standard deviation increment in Lp-PLA2 mass (117 ng/mL) was associated with a higher risk of developing clinical PAD (hazard ratio 1.28; 95% confidence interval 1.13, 1.45) and incident low ABI (odds ratio 1.16; 95% confidence interval 1.00, 1.33). Results per standard deviation increment in Lp-PLA2 activity (13 nmol/min per mL) were similar for clinical PAD (hazard ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.07, 1.44) and low ABI (odds ratio 1.28; 95% confidence interval 1.09, 1.50). CONCLUSIONS: Higher Lp-PLA2 mass and activity were associated with development of both incident clinical PAD and low ABI. Future studies are needed to determine whether pharmacological inhibition of Lp-PLA2 reduces the incidence of PAD.

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of HDL cholesterol response to statins.

BACKGROUND: In addition to lowering low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), statin therapy also raises high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. Inter-individual variation in HDL-C response to statins may be partially explained by genetic variation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to identify variants with an effect on statin-induced high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) changes. The 123 most promising signals with p<1×10-4 from the 16 769 statin-treated participants in the first analysis stage were followed up in an independent group of 10 951 statin-treated individuals, providing a total sample size of 27 720 individuals. The only associations of genome-wide significance (p<5×10-8) were between minor alleles at the CETP locus and greater HDL-C response to statin treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Based on results from this study that included a relatively large sample size, we suggest that CETP may be the only detectable locus with common genetic variants that influence HDL-C response to statins substantially in individuals of European descent. Although CETP is known to be associated with HDL-C, we provide evidence that this pharmacogenetic effect is independent of its association with baseline HDL-C levels.

Identification of novel genetic Loci associated with thyroid peroxidase antibodies and clinical thyroid disease.

Autoimmune thyroid diseases (AITD) are common, affecting 2-5% of the general population. Individuals with positive thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAbs) have an increased risk of autoimmune hypothyroidism (Hashimoto's thyroiditis), as well as autoimmune hyperthyroidism (Graves' disease). As the possible causative genes of TPOAbs and AITD remain largely unknown, we performed GWAS meta-analyses in 18,297 individuals for TPOAb-positivity (1769 TPOAb-positives and 16,528 TPOAb-negatives) and in 12,353 individuals for TPOAb serum levels, with replication in 8,990 individuals. Significant associations (P<5×10(-8)) were detected at TPO-rs11675434, ATXN2-rs653178, and BACH2-rs10944479 for TPOAb-positivity, and at TPO-rs11675434, MAGI3-rs1230666, and KALRN-rs2010099 for TPOAb levels. Individual and combined effects (genetic risk scores) of these variants on (subclinical) hypo- and hyperthyroidism, goiter and thyroid cancer were studied. Individuals with a high genetic risk score had, besides an increased risk of TPOAb-positivity (OR: 2.18, 95% CI 1.68-2.81, P = 8.1×10(-8)), a higher risk of increased thyroid-stimulating hormone levels (OR: 1.51, 95% CI 1.26-1.82, P = 2.9×10(-6)), as well as a decreased risk of goiter (OR: 0.77, 95% CI 0.66-0.89, P = 6.5×10(-4)). The MAGI3 and BACH2 variants were associated with an increased risk of hyperthyroidism, which was replicated in an independent cohort of patients with Graves' disease (OR: 1.37, 95% CI 1.22-1.54, P = 1.2×10(-7) and OR: 1.25, 95% CI 1.12-1.39, P = 6.2×10(-5)). The MAGI3 variant was also associated with an increased risk of hypothyroidism (OR: 1.57, 95% CI 1.18-2.10, P = 1.9×10(-3)). This first GWAS meta-analysis for TPOAbs identified five newly associated loci, three of which were also associated with clinical thyroid disease. With these markers we identified a large subgroup in the general population with a substantially increased risk of TPOAbs. The results provide insight into why individuals with thyroid autoimmunity do or do not eventually develop thyroid disease, and these markers may therefore predict which TPOAb-positives are particularly at risk of developing clinical thyroid dysfunction.

Meta-analysis of loci associated with age at natural menopause in African-American women.

Age at menopause marks the end of a woman's reproductive life and its timing associates with risks for cancer, cardiovascular and bone disorders. GWAS and candidate gene studies conducted in women of European ancestry have identified 27 loci associated with age at menopause. The relevance of these loci to women of African ancestry has not been previously studied. We therefore sought to uncover additional menopause loci and investigate the relevance of European menopause loci by performing a GWAS meta-analysis in 6510 women with African ancestry derived from 11 studies across the USA. We did not identify any additional loci significantly associated with age at menopause in African Americans. We replicated the associations between six loci and age at menopause (P-value < 0.05): AMHR2, RHBLD2, PRIM1, HK3/UMC1, BRSK1/TMEM150B and MCM8. In addition, associations of 14 loci are directionally consistent with previous reports. We provide evidence that genetic variants influencing reproductive traits identified in European populations are also important in women of African ancestry residing in USA.

Mortality After Bereavement: The Role of Cardiovascular Disease and Depression.

OBJECTIVES: Late-life bereavement is associated with an increased risk of mortality. This study assesses the associations among bereavement, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and depressive symptoms on mortality in older men and women. METHODS: We examined data from the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective population-based cohort study of older adults. We compared mortality in those who became bereaved from 1989 to 1999 (n = 593) to an age- and sex-matched sample of individuals who remained married (n = 593). Cox regression was used to examine the association between bereavement and 3-year all-cause mortality and whether or not the association differed by sex, presence of CVD, or postbereavement depressive symptoms. RESULTS: One hundred ninety-nine (16.8%) individuals died. There was no association of bereavement with mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.98 [0.74-1.30]). However, there were significant interaction effects of bereavement with participant sex (p < .001) and CVD (p = .010). Bereavement decreased the risk of mortality in women (HR = 0.67 [0.46-0.97]) and increased the risk of mortality in men (HR = 1.77 [1.14-2.75]). Within sex, the association of bereavement with mortality differed according to CVD status. The reduced risk of mortality associated with bereavement in women was only observed in women with CVD, and the increased risk in men was only observed in men without CVD. High levels of depressive symptoms attenuated the relation between bereavement and mortality in men without CVD. CONCLUSIONS: The relation between bereavement and mortality was different in men and women and varied by CVD status. Bereavement decreased mortality in women with CVD and increased mortality in men without CVD.

A meta-analysis of thyroid-related traits reveals novel loci and gender-specific differences in the regulation of thyroid function.

Thyroid hormone is essential for normal metabolism and development, and overt abnormalities in thyroid function lead to common endocrine disorders affecting approximately 10% of individuals over their life span. In addition, even mild alterations in thyroid function are associated with weight changes, atrial fibrillation, osteoporosis, and psychiatric disorders. To identify novel variants underlying thyroid function, we performed a large meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for serum levels of the highly heritable thyroid function markers TSH and FT4, in up to 26,420 and 17,520 euthyroid subjects, respectively. Here we report 26 independent associations, including several novel loci for TSH (PDE10A, VEGFA, IGFBP5, NFIA, SOX9, PRDM11, FGF7, INSR, ABO, MIR1179, NRG1, MBIP, ITPK1, SASH1, GLIS3) and FT4 (LHX3, FOXE1, AADAT, NETO1/FBXO15, LPCAT2/CAPNS2). Notably, only limited overlap was detected between TSH and FT4 associated signals, in spite of the feedback regulation of their circulating levels by the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis. Five of the reported loci (PDE8B, PDE10A, MAF/LOC440389, NETO1/FBXO15, and LPCAT2/CAPNS2) show strong gender-specific differences, which offer clues for the known sexual dimorphism in thyroid function and related pathologies. Importantly, the TSH-associated loci contribute not only to variation within the normal range, but also to TSH values outside the reference range, suggesting that they may be involved in thyroid dysfunction. Overall, our findings explain, respectively, 5.64% and 2.30% of total TSH and FT4 trait variance, and they improve the current knowledge of the regulation of hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis function and the consequences of genetic variation for hypo- or hyperthyroidism.

Genome-wide association study of age at menarche in African-American women.

African-American (AA) women have earlier menarche on average than women of European ancestry (EA), and earlier menarche is a risk factor for obesity and type 2 diabetes among other chronic diseases. Identification of common genetic variants associated with age at menarche has a potential value in pointing to the genetic pathways underlying chronic disease risk, yet comprehensive genome-wide studies of age at menarche are lacking for AA women. In this study, we tested the genome-wide association of self-reported age at menarche with common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a total of 18 089 AA women in 15 studies using an additive genetic linear regression model, adjusting for year of birth and population stratification, followed by inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis (Stage 1). Top meta-analysis results were then tested in an independent sample of 2850 women (Stage 2). First, while no SNP passed the pre-specified P < 5 × 10(-8) threshold for significance in Stage 1, suggestive associations were found for variants near FLRT2 and PIK3R1, and conditional analysis identified two independent SNPs (rs339978 and rs980000) in or near RORA, strengthening the support for this suggestive locus identified in EA women. Secondly, an investigation of SNPs in 42 previously identified menarche loci in EA women demonstrated that 25 (60%) of them contained variants significantly associated with menarche in AA women. The findings provide the first evidence of cross-ethnic generalization of menarche loci identified to date, and suggest a number of novel biological links to menarche timing in AA women.

A genome-wide association study of early menopause and the combined impact of identified variants.

Early menopause (EM) affects up to 10% of the female population, reducing reproductive lifespan considerably. Currently, it constitutes the leading cause of infertility in the western world, affecting mainly those women who postpone their first pregnancy beyond the age of 30 years. The genetic aetiology of EM is largely unknown in the majority of cases. We have undertaken a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in 3493 EM cases and 13 598 controls from 10 independent studies. No novel genetic variants were discovered, but the 17 variants previously associated with normal age at natural menopause as a quantitative trait (QT) were also associated with EM and primary ovarian insufficiency (POI). Thus, EM has a genetic aetiology which overlaps variation in normal age at menopause and is at least partly explained by the additive effects of the same polygenic variants. The combined effect of the common variants captured by the single nucleotide polymorphism arrays was estimated to account for ∼30% of the variance in EM. The association between the combined 17 variants and the risk of EM was greater than the best validated non-genetic risk factor, smoking.

Infection hospitalization increases risk of dementia in the elderly.

OBJECTIVES: Severe infections, often requiring ICU admission, have been associated with persistent cognitive dysfunction. Less severe infections are more common and whether they are associated with an increased risk of dementia is unclear. We determined the association of pneumonia hospitalization with risk of dementia in well-functioning older adults. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a randomized multicenter trial to determine the effect of Gingko biloba on incident dementia. SETTING: Five academic medical centers in the United States. SUBJECTS: Healthy community volunteers (n = 3,069) with a median follow-up of 6.1 years. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified pneumonia hospitalizations using International Classification of Diseases, 9th Edition-Coding Manual codes and validated them in a subset. Less than 3% of pneumonia cases necessitated ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, or vasopressor support. Dementia was adjudicated based on neuropsychological evaluation, neurological examination, and MRI. Two hundred twenty-one participants (7.2%) incurred at least one hospitalization with pneumonia (mean time to pneumonia = 3.5 yr). Of these, dementia was developed in 38 (17%) after pneumonia, with half of these cases occurring 2 years after the pneumonia hospitalization. Hospitalization with pneumonia was associated with increased risk of time to dementia diagnosis (unadjusted hazard ratio = 2.3; CI, 1.6-3.2; p < 0.0001). The association remained significant when adjusted for age, sex, race, study site, education, and baseline mini-mental status examination (hazard ratio = 1.9; CI, 1.4-2.8; p < 0.0001). Results were unchanged when additionally adjusted for smoking, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and preinfection functional status. Results were similar using propensity analysis where participants with pneumonia were matched to those without pneumonia based on age, probability of developing pneumonia, and similar trajectories of cognitive and physical function prior to pneumonia (adjusted prevalence rates, 91.7 vs 65 cases per 1,000 person-years; adjusted prevalence rate ratio = 1.6; CI, 1.06-2.7; p = 0.03). Sensitivity analyses showed that the higher risk also occurred among those hospitalized with other infections. CONCLUSION: Hospitalization with pneumonia is associated with increased risk of dementia.

Testosterone and dihydrotestosterone and incident ischaemic stroke in men in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: Ischaemic stroke is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in elderly men. Our main objective was to examine whether testosterone (T) or dihydrotestosterone (DHT) was associated with incident ischaemic stroke in elderly men. DESIGN: Cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Elderly men in the Cardiovascular Health Study who had no history of stroke, heart disease or prostate cancer as of 1994 and were followed until December 2010. MEASUREMENTS: Adjudicated ischaemic stroke. RESULTS: Among 1032 men (mean age 76, range 66-97), followed for a median of 10 years, 114 had an incident ischaemic stroke. Total T and free T were not significantly associated with stroke risk, while DHT had a nonlinear association with incident stroke (P = 0·006) in analyses adjusted for stroke risk factors. The lowest risk of stroke was at DHT levels of 50-75 ng/dl, with greater risk of stroke at DHT levels above 75 ng/dl or below 50 ng/dl. Results were unchanged when SHBG was added to the model. Calculated free DHT had an inverse linear association with incident ischaemic stroke with HR 0·77 (95% CI, 0·61, 0·98) per standard deviation in analyses adjusted for stroke risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Dihydrotestosterone had a nonlinear association with stroke risk in which there was an optimal DHT level associated with the lowest stroke risk. Further studies are needed to confirm these results and to clarify whether there is an optimal androgen range associated with the least risk of adverse outcomes in elderly men.

Association of a Blood-Based Aging Biomarker Index With Death and Chronic Disease: Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: A goal of gerontology is to discover phenotypes that reflect biological aging distinct from disease pathogenesis. Biomarkers that are strongly associated with mortality could be used to define such a phenotype. However, the relation of such an index with multiple chronic conditions warrants further exploration. METHODS: A biomarker index (BI) was constructed in the Cardiovascular Health Study (N = 3 197), with a mean age of 74 years. The BI incorporated circulating levels of new biomarkers, including insulin-like growth factor-1, interleukin-6, amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, cystatin-C, C-reactive protein, tumor necrosis factor-alpha soluble receptor 1, fasting insulin, and fasting glucose, and was built based on their relationships with mortality. Cox proportional hazards models predicting a composite of death and chronic disease involving cardiovascular disease, dementia, and cancer were calculated with 6 years of follow-up. RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR, 95% CI) for the composite outcome of death or chronic disease per category of BI was 1.65 (1.52, 1.80) and 1.75 (1.58, 1.94) in women and men, respectively. The HR (95% CI) per 5 years of age was 1.57 (1.48, 1.67) and 1.55 (1.44, 1.67) in women and men, respectively. Moreover, BI could attenuate the effect of age on the composite outcome by 16.7% and 22.0% in women and men, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarker index was significantly and independently associated with a composite outcome of death and chronic disease, and attenuated the effect of age. The BI that is composed of plasma biomarkers may be a practical intermediate phenotype for interventions aiming to modify the course of aging.

Plasma proteomic signature of human longevity.

The identification of protein targets that exhibit anti-aging clinical potential could inform interventions to lengthen the human health span. Most previous proteomics research has been focused on chronological age instead of longevity. We leveraged two large population-based prospective cohorts with long follow-ups to evaluate the proteomic signature of longevity defined by survival to 90 years of age. Plasma proteomics was measured using a SOMAscan assay in 3067 participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study (discovery cohort) and 4690 participants from the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (replication cohort). Logistic regression identified 211 significant proteins in the CHS cohort using a Bonferroni-adjusted threshold, of which 168 were available in the replication cohort and 105 were replicated (corrected p value <0.05). The most significant proteins were GDF-15 and N-terminal pro-BNP in both cohorts. A parsimonious protein-based prediction model was built using 33 proteins selected by LASSO with 10-fold cross-validation and validated using 27 available proteins in the validation cohort. This protein model outperformed a basic model using traditional factors (demographics, height, weight, and smoking) by improving the AUC from 0.658 to 0.748 in the discovery cohort and from 0.755 to 0.802 in the validation cohort. We also found that the associations of 169 out of 211 proteins were partially mediated by physical and/or cognitive function. These findings could contribute to the identification of biomarkers and pathways of aging and potential therapeutic targets to delay aging and age-related diseases.

Associations of total and high-molecular-weight adiponectin with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in older persons: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Adiponectin shows opposite associations with adverse outcomes in healthy middle-aged populations (lower risk) and cohorts with prevalent cardiovascular disease, heart failure, or advanced age (higher risk). METHODS AND RESULTS: In a population-based study of older adults, we examined the relationships of total and high-molecular-weight adiponectin with mortality among subgroups defined by baseline cardiovascular status: No cardiovascular disease, heart failure, or atrial fibrillation (group 1); cardiovascular disease but no heart failure/atrial fibrillation (group 2); and heart failure/atrial fibrillation (group 3). We found significant differences in the associations with all-cause mortality across the groups. The association in group 1 was U-shaped; increasing levels of total adiponectin up to 12.4 mg/L were associated with lower mortality after adjustment for confounders (hazard ratio=0.81 per 1 SD [95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.95]), but above this cut point, higher levels conferred greater risk (hazard ratio=1.19 [95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.27]). Further adjustment for diabetes mellitus or insulin resistance, protection against which has been proposed to mediate the beneficial relationships of adiponectin with outcome, attenuated the association in the lower range. There was no significant association in group 2, but in group 3, total adiponectin showed a direct adjusted association. Additional adjustment for putative metabolic/inflammatory intermediates suggested a direct association for group 2, and magnified the one for group 3 (hazard ratio=1.31 [1.15-1.50]). Results were similar for high-molecular-weight adiponectin and for cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Adiponectin exhibits distinct associations with mortality in elders, which shift from U-shaped to flat to direct with greater baseline cardiovascular dysfunction but become more consistently adverse after accounting for metabolic/inflammatory factors presumed to be favorably regulated by the adipokine. These findings advance understanding of the adiponectin paradox as it relates to older adults.

Hemoglobin decline, function, and mortality in the elderly: the cardiovascular health study.

While anemia is associated with poor functional and mortality outcomes in the elderly, the impact of hemoglobin decline is less studied. We evaluated the determinants and consequences of hemoglobin decline in 3,758 non-anemic participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective cohort of community-dwelling elderly ≥65 years old at baseline and followed for up to 16 years. Hemoglobin was measured at baseline and 3 years later and anemia defined by World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. We modeled hemoglobin decline in two ways: (1) per each 1 g/dL decrease in hemoglobin and (2) development of anemia by the WHO criteria. Among participants without baseline anemia, hemoglobin decreased by 0.4 g/dL and 9% developed anemia over 3 years. Baseline increasing age, female sex, diabetes, and kidney disease predicted hemoglobin decline over 3 years. Baseline increasing age, being African-American, and kidney disease predicted anemia development over 3 years. Hemoglobin decline was associated with subsequent worse cognitive function in men and anemia development with subsequent worse cognitive function in women. Both anemia development (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.15, 1.69) and hemoglobin decline (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04, 1.18 per 1 g/dL decrease) predicted subsequent mortality in men and women. Hemoglobin decreases identified a large group of elderly individuals at risk for subsequent adverse outcomes who would not be identified using the WHO anemia criteria. These data may allow clinicians to identify at-risk elderly individuals for early intervention to improve the quality and quantity of life.