Risk Factors for Recent HIV Infections among Adults in 14 Countries in Africa Identified by Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys, 2015-2019.

Identifying persons who have newly acquired HIV infections is critical for characterizing the HIV epidemic direction. We analyzed pooled data from nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted across 14 countries in Africa for recent infection risk factors. We included adults 15-49 years of age who had sex during the previous year and used a recent infection testing algorithm to distinguish recent from long-term infections. We collected risk factor information via participant interviews and assessed correlates of recent infection using multinomial logistic regression, incorporating each survey's complex sampling design. Compared with HIV-negative persons, persons with higher odds of recent HIV infection were women, were divorced/separated/widowed, had multiple recent sex partners, had a recent HIV-positive sex partner or one with unknown status, and lived in communities with higher HIV viremia prevalence. Prevention programs focusing on persons at higher risk for HIV and their sexual partners will contribute to reducing HIV incidence.

Leveraging HIV Program and Civil Society to Accelerate COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake, Zambia.

To accelerate COVID-19 vaccination delivery, Zambia integrated COVID-19 vaccination into HIV treatment centers and used World AIDS Day 2021 to launch a national vaccination campaign. This campaign was associated with significantly increased vaccinations, demonstrating that HIV programs can be leveraged to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake.

Comparison of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in 10 Countries in Southern Africa, 2020-2021.

We used publicly available data to describe epidemiology, genomic surveillance, and public health and social measures from the first 3 COVID-19 pandemic waves in southern Africa during April 6, 2020-September 19, 2021. South Africa detected regional waves on average 7.2 weeks before other countries. Average testing volume 244 tests/million/day) increased across waves and was highest in upper-middle-income countries. Across the 3 waves, average reported regional incidence increased (17.4, 51.9, 123.3 cases/1 million population/day), as did positivity of diagnostic tests (8.8%, 12.2%, 14.5%); mortality (0.3, 1.5, 2.7 deaths/1 million populaiton/day); and case-fatality ratios (1.9%, 2.1%, 2.5%). Beta variant (B.1.351) drove the second wave and Delta (B.1.617.2) the third. Stringent implementation of safety measures declined across waves. As of September 19, 2021, completed vaccination coverage remained low (8.1% of total population). Our findings highlight opportunities for strengthening surveillance, health systems, and access to realistically available therapeutics, and scaling up risk-based vaccination.

Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Services for HIV Prevention, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2020.

Beginning in March 2020, to reduce COVID-19 transmission, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief supporting voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services was delayed in 15 sub-Saharan African countries. We reviewed performance indicators to compare the number of VMMCs performed in 2020 with those performed in previous years. In all countries, the annual number of VMMCs performed decreased 32.5% (from 3,898,960 in 2019 to 2,631,951 in 2020). That reduction is largely attributed to national and local COVID-19 mitigation measures instituted by ministries of health. Overall, 66.7% of the VMMC global annual target was met in 2020, compared with 102.0% in 2019. Countries were not uniformly affected; South Africa achieved only 30.7% of its annual target in 2020, but Rwanda achieved 123.0%. Continued disruption to the VMMC program may lead to reduced circumcision coverage and potentially increased HIV-susceptible populations. Strategies for modifying VMMC services provide lessons for adapting healthcare systems during a global pandemic.

Geospatial Transmission Hotspots of Recent HIV Infection - Malawi, October 2019-March 2020.

Persons infected with HIV are more likely to transmit the virus during the early stages (acute and recent) of infection, when viral load is elevated and opportunities to implement risk reduction are limited because persons are typically unaware of their status (1,2). Identifying recent HIV infections (acquired within the preceding 12 months)* is critical to understanding the factors and geographic areas associated with transmission to strengthen program intervention, including treatment and prevention (2). During June 2019, a novel recent infection surveillance initiative was integrated into routine HIV testing services in Malawi, a landlocked country in southeastern Africa with one of the world's highest prevalences of HIV infection.† The objectives of this initiative were to collect data on new HIV diagnoses, characterize the epidemic, and guide public health response (2). New HIV diagnoses were classified as recent infections based on a testing algorithm that included results from the rapid test for recent infection (RTRI)§ and HIV viral load testing (3,4). Among 9,168 persons aged ≥15 years with a new HIV diagnosis who received testing across 103 facilities during October 2019-March 2020, a total of 304 (3.3%) were classified as having a recent infection. Higher proportions of recent infections were detected among females, persons aged <30 years, and clients at maternal and child health and youth clinics. Using a software application that analyzes clustering in spatially referenced data, transmission hotspots were identified with rates of recent infection that were significantly higher than expected. These near real-time HIV surveillance data highlighted locations across Malawi, allowing HIV program stakeholders to assess program gaps and improve access to HIV testing, prevention, and treatment services. Hotspot investigation information could be used to tailor HIV testing, prevention, and treatment to ultimately interrupt transmission.

Derivation and external validation of a risk score for predicting HIV-associated tuberculosis to support case finding and preventive therapy scale-up: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Among people living with HIV (PLHIV), more flexible and sensitive tuberculosis (TB) screening tools capable of detecting both symptomatic and subclinical active TB are needed to (1) reduce morbidity and mortality from undiagnosed TB; (2) facilitate scale-up of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) while reducing inappropriate prescription of TPT to PLHIV with subclinical active TB; and (3) allow for differentiated HIV-TB care. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult HIV clinic enrollees collected during 2012 to 2015 to develop a parsimonious multivariable prognostic model for active prevalent TB using both logistic regression and random forest machine learning approaches. A clinical score was derived by rescaling final model coefficients. The clinical score was developed using southern Botswana XPRES data and its accuracy validated internally, using northern Botswana data, and externally using 3 diverse cohorts of antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive and ART-experienced PLHIV enrolled in XPHACTOR, TB Fast Track (TBFT), and Gugulethu studies from South Africa (SA). Predictive accuracy of the clinical score was compared with the World Health Organization (WHO) 4-symptom TB screen. Among 5,418 XPRES enrollees, 2,771 were included in the derivation dataset; 67% were female, median age was 34 years, median CD4 was 240 cells/µL, 189 (7%) had undiagnosed prevalent TB, and characteristics were similar between internal derivation and validation datasets. Among XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, median CD4 was 400, 73, and 167 cells/µL, and prevalence of TB was 5%, 10%, and 18%, respectively. Factors predictive of TB in the derivation dataset and selected for the clinical score included male sex (1 point), ≥1 WHO TB symptom (7 points), smoking history (1 point), temperature >37.5°C (6 points), body mass index (BMI) <18.5kg/m2 (2 points), and severe anemia (hemoglobin <8g/dL) (3 points). Sensitivity using WHO 4-symptom TB screen was 73%, 80%, 94%, and 94% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, but increased to 88%, 87%, 97%, and 97%, when a clinical score of ≥2 was used. Negative predictive value (NPV) also increased 1%, 0.3%, 1.6%, and 1.7% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, when the clinical score of ≥2 replaced WHO 4-symptom TB screen. Categorizing risk scores into low (<2), moderate (2 to 10), and high-risk categories (>10) yielded TB prevalence of 1%, 1%, 2%, and 6% in the lowest risk group and 33%, 22%, 26%, and 32% in the highest risk group for XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively. At clinical score ≥2, the number needed to screen (NNS) ranged from 5.0 in Gugulethu to 11.0 in XPHACTOR. Limitations include that the risk score has not been validated in resource-rich settings and needs further evaluation and validation in contemporary cohorts in Africa and other resource-constrained settings. CONCLUSIONS: The simple and feasible clinical score allowed for prioritization of sensitivity and NPV, which could facilitate reductions in mortality from undiagnosed TB and safer administration of TPT during proposed global scale-up efforts. Differentiation of risk by clinical score cutoff allows flexibility in designing differentiated HIV-TB care to maximize impact of available resources.

Effect of tuberculosis screening and retention interventions on early antiretroviral therapy mortality in Botswana: a stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) remains the most common cause of HIV-related mortality. Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is being rolled out globally to improve TB diagnostic capacity. However, previous Xpert impact trials have reported that health system weaknesses blunted impact of this improved diagnostic tool. During phased Xpert rollout in Botswana, we evaluated the impact of a package of interventions comprising (1) additional support for intensified TB case finding (ICF), (2) active tracing for patients missing clinic appointments to support retention, and (3) Xpert replacing sputum-smear microscopy, on early (6-month) antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality. METHODS: At 22 clinics, ART enrollees > 12 years old were eligible for inclusion in three phases: a retrospective standard of care (SOC), prospective enhanced care (EC), and prospective EC plus Xpert (EC+X) phase. EC and EC+X phases were implemented as a stepped-wedge trial. Participants in the EC phase received SOC plus components 1 (strengthened ICF) and 2 (active tracing) of the intervention package, and participants in the EC+X phase received SOC plus all three intervention package components. Primary and secondary objectives were to compare all-cause 6-month ART mortality between SOC and EC+X and between EC and EC+X phases, respectively. We used adjusted analyses, appropriate for study design, to control for baseline differences in individual-level factors and intra-facility correlation. RESULTS: We enrolled 14,963 eligible patients: 8980 in SOC, 1768 in EC, and 4215 in EC+X phases. Median age of ART enrollees was 35 and 64% were female. Median CD4 cell count was lower in SOC than subsequent phases (184/µL in SOC, 246/µL in EC, and 241/µL in EC+X). By 6 months of ART, 461 (5.3%) of SOC, 54 (3.2%) of EC, and 121 (3.0%) of EC+X enrollees had died. Compared with SOC, 6-month mortality was lower in the EC+X phase (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.97, p = 0.029). Compared with EC enrollees, 6-month mortality was similar among EC+X enrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to strengthen ICF and retention were associated with lower early ART mortality. This new evidence highlights the need to strengthen ICF and retention in many similar settings. Similar to other trials, no additional mortality benefit of replacing sputum-smear microscopy with Xpert was observed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02538952).

Risk scores for predicting early antiretroviral therapy mortality in sub-Saharan Africa to inform who needs intensification of care: a derivation and external validation cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores to determine early (6-month) antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality risk have not been developed for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), home to 70% of people living with HIV. In the absence of validated scores, WHO eligibility criteria (EC) for ART care intensification are CD4 < 200/µL or WHO stage III/IV. METHODS: We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult ART enrollees to develop CD4-independent and CD4-dependent multivariable prognostic models for 6-month mortality. Scores were derived by rescaling coefficients. Scores were developed using the first 50% of XPRES ART enrollees, and their accuracy validated internally and externally using South African TB Fast Track (TBFT) trial data. Predictive accuracy was compared between scores and WHO EC. RESULTS: Among 5553 XPRES enrollees, 2838 were included in the derivation dataset; 68% were female and 83 (3%) died by 6 months. Among 1077 TBFT ART enrollees, 55% were female and 6% died by 6 months. Factors predictive of 6-month mortality in the derivation dataset at p < 0.01 and selected for the CD4-independent score included male gender (2 points), ≥ 1 WHO tuberculosis symptom (2 points), WHO stage III/IV (2 points), severe anemia (hemoglobin < 8 g/dL) (3 points), and temperature > 37.5 °C (2 points). The same variables plus CD4 < 200/µL (1 point) were included in the CD4-dependent score. Among XPRES enrollees, a CD4-independent score of ≥ 4 would provide 86% sensitivity and 66% specificity, whereas WHO EC would provide 83% sensitivity and 58% specificity. If WHO stage alone was used, sensitivity was 48% and specificity 89%. Among TBFT enrollees, the CD4-independent score of ≥ 4 would provide 95% sensitivity and 27% specificity, whereas WHO EC would provide 100% sensitivity but 0% specificity. Accuracy was similar between CD4-independent and CD4-dependent scores. Categorizing CD4-independent scores into low (< 4), moderate (4-6), and high risk (≥ 7) gave 6-month mortality of 1%, 4%, and 17% for XPRES and 1%, 5%, and 30% for TBFT enrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Sensitivity of the CD4-independent score was nearly twice that of WHO stage in predicting 6-month mortality and could be used in settings lacking CD4 testing to inform ART care intensification. The CD4-dependent score improved specificity versus WHO EC. Both scores should be considered for scale-up in SSA.

Childhood Violence Is Associated with Forced Sexual Initiation Among Girls and Young Women in Malawi: A Cross-Sectional Survey.

OBJECTIVE: To describe associations between childhood violence and forced sexual initiation in young Malawian females. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed data from 595 women and girls who were 13-24 years old who ever had sex and participated in Malawi's 2013 Violence Against Children Survey, a nationally representative household survey. We estimated the overall prevalence of forced sexual initiation and identified subgroups with highest prevalences. Using logistic regression, we examined childhood violence and other independent predictors of forced sexual initiation. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of forced sexual initiation was 38.9% among Malawian girls and young women who ever had sex. More than one-half of those aged 13-17 years at time of survey (52.0%), unmarried (64.6%), or experiencing emotional violence in childhood (56.9%) reported forced sexual initiation. After adjustment, independent predictors of forced sexual initiation included being unmarried (aOR, 3.54; 95% CI, 1.22-10.27) and any emotional violence (aOR, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.45-4.24). Those experiencing emotional violence alone (aOR, 3.04; 95% CI: 1.01-9.12), emotional violence in combination with physical or nonpenetrative sexual violence (aOR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.23-5.09), and emotional violence in combination with physical and nonpenetrative sexual violence (aOR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.20-5.67) had an increased independent odds of forced sexual initiation. CONCLUSIONS: Experiences of forced sexual initiation are common among Malawian females. Emotional violence is strongly associated with forced sexual initiation, alone and in combination with other forms of childhood violence. The relationship between emotional violence and forced sexual initiation highlights the importance of comprehensive strategies to prevent childhood violence.

Prevalence of Violence Victimization and Perpetration Among Persons Aged 13-24 Years - Four Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2013-2015.

Violence is a major public health and human rights concern, claiming over 1.3 million lives globally each year (1). Despite the scope of this problem, population-based data on physical and sexual violence perpetration are scarce, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (2,3). To better understand factors driving both children becoming victims of physical or sexual violence and subsequently (as adults) becoming perpetrators, CDC collaborated with four countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Malawi, Nigeria, Uganda, and Zambia) to conduct national household surveys of persons aged 13-24 years to measure experiences of violence victimization in childhood and subsequent perpetration of physical or sexual violence. Perpetration of physical or sexual violence was prevalent among both males and females, ranging among males from 29.5% in Nigeria to 51.5% in Malawi and among females from 15.3% in Zambia to 28.4% in Uganda. Experiencing physical, sexual, or emotional violence in childhood was the strongest predictor for perpetrating violence; a graded dose-response relationship emerged between the number of types of childhood violence experienced (i.e., physical, sexual, and emotional) and perpetration of violence. Efforts to prevent violence victimization need to begin early, requiring investment in the prevention of childhood violence and interventions to mitigate the negative effects of violence experienced by children.

Scaling Up Testing for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Among Contacts of Index Patients - 20 Countries, 2016-2018.

In 2017, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimated that worldwide, 36.9 million persons were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the virus infection that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Among persons with HIV infection, approximately 75% were aware of their HIV status, leaving 9.4 million persons with undiagnosed infection (1). Index testing, also known as partner notification or contact tracing, is an effective case-finding strategy that targets the exposed contacts of HIV-positive persons for HIV testing services. This report summarizes data from HIV tests using index testing in 20 countries supported by CDC through the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) during October 1, 2016-March 31, 2018. During this 18-month period, 1,700,998 HIV tests with 99,201 (5.8%) positive results were reported using index testing. The positivity rate for index testing was 9.8% among persons aged ≥15 years and 1.5% among persons aged <15 years. During the reporting period, HIV positivity increased 64% among persons aged ≥15 years (from 7.6% to 12.5%) and 67% among persons aged <15 years (from 1.2% to 2.0%). Expanding index testing services could help increase the number of persons with HIV infection who know their status, are initiated onto antiretroviral treatment, and consequently reduce the number of persons who can transmit the virus.

Tuberculosis treatment outcomes among people living with HIV diagnosed using Xpert MTB/RIF versus sputum-smear microscopy in Botswana: a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Xpert® MTB/RIF (Xpert) has high sensitivity for diagnosing tuberculosis (TB) compared to sputum-smear microscopy (smear) and can reduce time-to-diagnosis, time-to-treatment and potentially unfavorable patient-level treatment outcome. METHODS: People living with HIV (PLHIV) initiating antiretroviral therapy at 22 HIV clinics were enrolled and underwent systematic screening for TB (August 2012-November 2014). GeneXpert instruments were deployed following a stepped-wedge design at 13 centers from October 2012-June 2013. Treatment outcomes classified as an unfavorable outcome (died, treatment failure or loss-to-follow-up) or favorable outcome (cured and treatment completed). To determine outcome, smear was performed at month 5 or 6. Empiric treatment was defined as initiating treatment without/before receiving TB-positive results. Adjusting for intra-facility correlation, we compared patient-level treatment outcomes between patients screened using smear (smear arm)- and Xpert-based algorithms (Xpert arm). RESULTS: Among 6041 patients enrolled (smear arm, 1816; Xpert arm, 4225), 256 (199 per 2985 and 57 per 1582 person-years of follow-up in Xpert and smear arms, respectively; adjusted incidence rate ratio, 9.07; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.70-17.48; p < 0.001) received TB diagnosis and were treated. TB treatment outcomes were available for 203 patients (79.3%; Xpert, 157; smear, 46). Unfavorable outcomes were reported for 21.7% (10/46) in the smear and 13.4% (21/157) in Xpert arm (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% CI: 0.75-2.26; p = 0.268). Compared to smear, in Xpert arm median days from sputum collection to TB treatment was 6 days (interquartile range [IQR] 2-17 versus 22 days [IQR] 3-51), p = 0.005; patients with available sputum test result had microbiologically confirmed TB in 59.0% (102/173) versus 41.9% (18/43), adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR], 2.00, 95% CI: 1.01-3.96, p = 0.048). In smear arm empiric treatment was 68.4% (39/57) versus 48.7% (97/199), aOR, 2.28, 95% CI: 1.24-4.20, p = 0.011), compared to Xpert arm. CONCLUSIONS: TB treatment outcomes were similar between the smear and Xpert arms. However, compared to the smear arm, more patients in the Xpert arm received a TB diagnosis, had a microbiologically confirmed TB, and had a shorter time-to-treatment, and had a lower empiric treatment. Further research is recommended to identify potential gaps in the Botswana health system and similar settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02538952. Retrospectively registered on 2 September 2015.

Peer-Delivered Linkage Case Management and Same-Day ART Initiation for Men and Young Persons with HIV Infection - Eswatini, 2015-2017.

To achieve epidemic control of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, sub-Saharan African countries are striving to diagnose 90% of HIV infections, initiate and retain 90% of HIV-diagnosed persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and achieve viral load suppression* for 90% of ART recipients (90-90-90) (1). In Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), the country with the world's highest estimated HIV prevalence (27.2%), achieving 90-90-90 depends upon improving access to early ART for men and young adults with HIV infection, two groups with low ART coverage (1-3). Although community-based strategies test many men and young adults with HIV infection in Eswatini, fewer than one third of all persons who test positive in community settings enroll in HIV care within 6 months of diagnosis after receiving standard referral services (4,5). To evaluate the effectiveness of peer-delivered linkage case management† in improving early ART initiation for persons with HIV infection diagnosed in community settings in Eswatini, CDC analyzed data on 651 participants in CommLink, a community-based, mobile HIV-testing, point-of-diagnosis HIV care, and peer-delivered linkage case management demonstration project, and found that after diagnosis, 635 (98%) enrolled in care within a median of 5 days (interquartile range [IQR] = 2-8 days), and 541 (83%) initiated ART within a median of 6 days (IQR = 2-14 days), including 402 (74%) on the day of their first clinic visit (same-day ART). After expanding ART eligibility to all persons with HIV infection on October 1, 2016, 96% of 225 CommLink clients initiated ART, including 87% at their first clinic visit. Compared with women and adult clients aged ≥30 years, similar high proportions of men and persons aged 15-29 years enrolled in HIV care and received same-day ART. To help achieve 90-90-90 by 2020, the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is supporting the national scale-up of CommLink in Eswatini and recommending peer-delivered linkage case management as a potential strategy for countries to achieve >90% early enrollment in care and ART initiation after diagnosis of HIV infection (6).

Low and Decreasing Prevalence and Rate of False Positive HIV Diagnosis - Chókwè District, Mozambique, 2014-2017.

In 2017, rapid human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing services enabled the HIV diagnosis and treatment of approximately 15.3 million persons with HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa with life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART) (1). Although suboptimal testing practices and misdiagnoses have been reported in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere, trends in population burden and rate of false positive HIV diagnosis (false diagnosis) have not been reported (2,3). Understanding the population prevalence and trends of false diagnosis is fundamental for guiding rapid HIV testing policies and practices. To help address this need, CDC analyzed data from 57,655 residents aged 15-59 years in the Chókwè Health and Demographic Surveillance System (CHDSS) in Mozambique to evaluate trends in the rate (the percentage of false diagnoses among retested persons reporting a prior HIV diagnosis) and population prevalence of false diagnosis. From 2014 to 2017, the observed rate of false diagnosis in CHDSS decreased from 0.66% to 0.00% (p<0.001), and the estimated population prevalence of false diagnosis decreased from 0.08% to 0.01% (p = 0.0016). Although the prevalence and rate of false diagnosis are low and have decreased significantly in CHDSS, observed false diagnoses underscore the importance of routine HIV retesting before ART initiation and implementation of comprehensive rapid HIV test quality management systems (2,4,5).

Trends in Prevalence of Advanced HIV Disease at Antiretroviral Therapy Enrollment - 10 Countries, 2004-2015.

Monitoring prevalence of advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease (i.e., CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/µL) among persons starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important to understand ART program outcomes, inform HIV prevention strategy, and forecast need for adjunctive therapies.*,†,§ To assess trends in prevalence of advanced disease at ART initiation in 10 high-burden countries during 2004-2015, records of 694,138 ART enrollees aged ≥15 years from 797 ART facilities were analyzed. Availability of national electronic medical record systems allowed up-to-date evaluation of trends in Haiti (2004-2015), Mozambique (2004-2014), and Namibia (2004-2012), where prevalence of advanced disease at ART initiation declined from 75% to 34% (p<0.001), 73% to 37% (p<0.001), and 80% to 41% (p<0.001), respectively. Significant declines in prevalence of advanced disease during 2004-2011 were observed in Nigeria, Swaziland, Uganda, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe. The encouraging declines in prevalence of advanced disease at ART enrollment are likely due to scale-up of testing and treatment services and ART-eligibility guidelines encouraging earlier ART initiation. However, in 2015, approximately a third of new ART patients still initiated ART with advanced HIV disease. To reduce prevalence of advanced disease at ART initiation, adoption of World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended "treat-all" guidelines and strategies to facilitate earlier HIV testing and treatment are needed to reduce HIV-related mortality and HIV incidence.

Implementation of a pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial to evaluate impact of Botswana's Xpert MTB/RIF diagnostic algorithm on TB diagnostic sensitivity and early antiretroviral therapy mortality.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, as a pilot for Botswana's national Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) rollout plans, intensified tuberculosis (TB) case finding (ICF) activities were strengthened at 22 HIV treatment clinics prior to phased activation of 13 Xpert instruments. Together, the strengthened ICF intervention and Xpert activation are referred to as the "Xpert package". METHODS: The evaluation, called the Xpert Package Rollout Evaluation using a Stepped-wedge design (XPRES), has two key objectives: (1) to compare sensitivity of microscopy-based and Xpert-based pulmonary TB diagnostic algorithms in diagnosing sputum culture-positive TB; and (2) to evaluate impact of the "Xpert package" on all-cause, 6-month, adult antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality. A pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial design was chosen. The design involves enrollment of three cohorts: (1) cohort R, a retrospective cohort of all study clinic ART enrollees in the 24 months before study initiation (July 31, 2012); (2) cohort A, a prospective cohort of all consenting patients presenting to study clinics after study initiation, who received the ICF intervention and the microscopy-based TB diagnostic algorithm; and (3) cohort B, a prospective cohort of all consenting patients presenting to study clinics after Xpert activation, who received the ICF intervention and the Xpert-based TB diagnostic algorithm. TB diagnostic sensitivity will be compared between TB culture-positive enrollees in cohorts A and B. All-cause, 6-month ART-mortality will be compared between cohorts R and B. With anticipated cohort R, A, and B sample sizes of about 10,131, 1,878, and 4,258, respectively, the study is estimated to have >80 % power to detect differences in pre-versus post-Xpert TB diagnostic sensitivity if pre-Xpert sensitivity is ≤52.5 % and post-Xpert sensitivity ≥82.5 %, and >80 % power to detect a 40 % reduction in all-cause, 6-month, ART mortality between cohorts R and B if cohort R mortality is ≥13/100 person-years. DISCUSSION: Only one small previous trial (N = 424) among ART enrolees in Zimbabwe evaluated, in a secondary analysis, Xpert impact on all-cause 6-month ART mortality. No mortality impact was observed. This Botswana trial, with its larger sample size and powered specifically to detect differences in all-cause 6-month ART mortality, remains well-positioned to contribute understanding of Xpert impact. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02538952 .

Lower Levels of Antiretroviral Therapy Enrollment Among Men with HIV Compared with Women - 12 Countries, 2002-2013.

Equitable access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for men and women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a principle endorsed by most countries and funding bodies, including the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) Relief (PEPFAR) (1). To evaluate gender equity in ART access among adults (defined for this report as persons aged ≥15 years), 765,087 adult ART patient medical records from 12 countries in five geographic regions* were analyzed to estimate the ratio of women to men among new ART enrollees for each calendar year during 2002-2013. This annual ratio was compared with estimates from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS)(†) of the ratio of HIV-infected adult women to men in the general population. In all 10 African countries and Haiti, the most recent estimates of the ratio of adult women to men among new ART enrollees significantly exceeded the UNAIDS estimates for the female-to-male ratio among HIV-infected adults by 23%-83%. In six African countries and Haiti, the ratio of women to men among new adult ART enrollees increased more sharply over time than the estimated UNAIDS female-to-male ratio among adults with HIV in the general population. Increased ART coverage among men is needed to decrease their morbidity and mortality and to reduce HIV incidence among their sexual partners. Reaching more men with HIV testing and linkage-to-care services and adoption of test-and-treat ART eligibility guidelines (i.e., regular testing of adults, and offering treatment to all infected persons with ART, regardless of CD4 cell test results) could reduce gender inequity in ART coverage.

Antiretroviral therapy enrollment characteristics and outcomes among HIV-infected adolescents and young adults compared with older adults--seven African countries, 2004-2013.

Although scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) since 2005 has contributed to declines of about 30% in the global annual number of human immunodeficiency (HIV)-related deaths and declines in global HIV incidence, estimated annual HIV-related deaths among adolescents have increased by about 50% and estimated adolescent HIV incidence has been relatively stable. In 2012, an estimated 2,500 (40%) of all 6,300 daily new HIV infections occurred among persons aged 15-24 years. Difficulty enrolling adolescents and young adults in ART and high rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) after ART initiation might be contributing to mortality and HIV incidence in this age group, but data are limited. To evaluate age-related ART retention challenges, data from retrospective cohort studies conducted in seven African countries among 16,421 patients, aged ≥15 years at enrollment, who initiated ART during 2004-2012 were analyzed. ART enrollment and outcome data were compared among three groups defined by age at enrollment: adolescents and young adults (aged 15-24 years), middle-aged adults (aged 25-49 years), and older adults (aged ≥50 years). Enrollees aged 15-24 years were predominantly female (81%-92%), commonly pregnant (3%-32% of females), unmarried (54%-73%), and, in four countries with employment data, unemployed (53%-86%). In comparison, older adults were more likely to be male (p<0.001), employed (p<0.001), and married, (p<0.05 in five countries). Compared with older adults, adolescents and young adults had higher LTFU rates in all seven countries, reaching statistical significance in three countries in crude and multivariable analyses. Evidence-based interventions to reduce LTFU for adolescent and young adult ART enrollees could help reduce mortality and HIV incidence in this age group.

COVID-19 mortality sentinel surveillance at a tertiary referral hospital in Lusaka, Zambia, 2020-2021.

Deaths from COVID-19 likely exceeded official statistics in Zambia because of limited testing and incomplete death registration. We describe a sentinel COVID-19 mortality surveillance system in Lusaka, Zambia. We analyzed surveillance data on deceased persons of all ages undergoing verbal autopsy (VA) and COVID-19 testing at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) mortuary in Lusaka, Zambia, from April 2020 through August 2021. VA was done by surveillance officers for community deaths and in-patient deaths that occurred <48 hours after admission. A standardized questionnaire about the circumstances proximal to death was used, with a probable cause of death assigned by a validated computer algorithm. Nasopharyngeal specimens from deceased persons were tested for COVID-19 using polymerase chain reaction and rapid diagnostic tests. We analyzed the cause of death by COVID-19 test results. Of 12,919 deceased persons at UTH mortuary during the study period, 5,555 (43.0%) had a VA and COVID-19 test postmortem, of which 79.7% were community deaths. Overall, 278 (5.0%) deceased persons tested COVID-19 positive; 7.1% during waves versus 1.4% during nonwave periods. Most (72.3%) deceased persons testing COVID-19 positive reportedly had fever, cough, and/or dyspnea and most (73.5%) reportedly had an antemortem COVID-19 test. Common causes of death for those testing COVID-19 positive included acute cardiac disease (18.3%), respiratory tract infections (16.5%), other types of cardiac diseases (12.9%), and stroke (7.2%). A notable portion of deceased persons at a sentinel site in Lusaka tested COVID-19 positive during waves, supporting the notion that deaths from COVID-19 might have been undercounted in Zambia. Many had displayed classic COVID-19 symptoms and been tested before death yet nevertheless died in the community, potentially indicating strained medical services during waves. The high proportion of cardiovascular diseases deaths might reflect the hypercoagulable state during severe COVID-19. Early supportive treatment and availability of antivirals might lessen future mortality.

Trends in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among pregnant women attending first antenatal care visits in Zambia: A repeated cross-sectional survey, 2021-2022.

SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys help estimate the extent of transmission and guide the allocation of COVID-19 vaccines. We measured SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among women attending ANC clinics to assess exposure trends over time in Zambia. We conducted repeated cross-sectional SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys among pregnant women aged 15-49 years attending their first ANC visits in four districts of Zambia (two urban and two rural) during September 2021-September 2022. Serologic testing was done using a multiplex bead assay which detects IgG antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein and the spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD). We calculated monthly SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence by district. We also categorized seropositive results as infection alone, infection and vaccination, or vaccination alone based on anti-RBD and anti-nucleocapsid test results and self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status (vaccinated was having received ≥1 dose). Among 8,304 participants, 5,296 (63.8%) were cumulatively seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from September 2021 through September 2022. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence primarily increased from September 2021 to September 2022 in three districts (Lusaka: 61.8-100.0%, Chongwe: 39.6-94.7%, Chipata: 56.5-95.0%), but in Chadiza, seroprevalence increased from 27.8% in September 2021 to 77.2% in April 2022 before gradually dropping to 56.6% in July 2022. Among 5,906 participants with a valid COVID-19 vaccination status, infection alone accounted for antibody responses in 77.7% (4,590) of participants. Most women attending ANC had evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and most SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was infection-induced. Capturing COVID-19 vaccination status and using a multiplex bead assay with anti-nucleocapsid and anti-RBD targets facilitated distinguishing infection-induced versus vaccine-induced antibody responses during a period of increasing COVID-19 vaccine coverage in Zambia. Declining seroprevalence in Chadiza may indicate waning antibodies and a need for booster vaccines. ANC clinics have a potential role in ongoing SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance and can continue to provide insights into SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics to inform near real-time public health responses.