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1.
Mol Ecol ; 33(16): e17480, 2024 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39034651

ABSTRACT

Recent changes in climate and human land-use have resulted in alterations of the geographic range of many species, including human pathogens. Geographic range expansion and population growth of human pathogens increase human disease risk. Relatively little empirical work has investigated the impact of range changes on within-population variability, a contributor to both colonization success and adaptive potential, during the precise time in which populations are colonized. This is likely due to the difficulties of collecting appropriate natural samples during the dynamic phase of migration and colonization. We systematically collected blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) across New York State (NY), USA, between 2006 and 2019, a time period coinciding with a rapid range expansion of ticks and their associated pathogens including Borrelia burgdorferi, the etiological agent of Lyme disease. These samples provide a unique opportunity to investigate the population dynamics of human pathogens as they expand into novel territory. We observed that founder effects were short-lived, as gene flow from long-established populations brought almost all B. burgdorferi lineages to newly colonized populations within just a few years of colonization. By 7 years post-colonization, B. burgdorferi lineage frequency distributions were indistinguishable from long-established sites, indicating that local B. burgdorferi populations experience similar selective pressures despite geographic separation. The B. burgdorferi lineage dynamics elucidate the processes underlying the range expansion and demonstrate that migration into, and selection within, newly colonized sites operate on different time scales.


Subject(s)
Borrelia burgdorferi , Gene Flow , Ixodes , Lyme Disease , Population Dynamics , Borrelia burgdorferi/genetics , Borrelia burgdorferi/pathogenicity , New York , Animals , Lyme Disease/microbiology , Lyme Disease/transmission , Ixodes/microbiology , Humans , Genetics, Population
2.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 73(35): 769-773, 2024 Sep 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39236058

ABSTRACT

Beginning in late 2023, Oropouche virus was identified as the cause of large outbreaks in Amazon regions with known endemic transmission and in new areas in South America and the Caribbean. The virus is spread to humans by infected biting midges and some mosquito species. Although infection typically causes a self-limited febrile illness, reports of two deaths in patients with Oropouche virus infection and vertical transmission associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes have raised concerns about the threat of this virus to human health. In addition to approximately 8,000 locally acquired cases in the Americas, travel-associated Oropouche virus disease cases have recently been identified in European travelers returning from Cuba and Brazil. As of August 16, 2024, a total of 21 Oropouche virus disease cases were identified among U.S. travelers returning from Cuba. Most patients initially experienced fever, myalgia, and headache, often with other symptoms including arthralgia, diarrhea, nausea or vomiting, and rash. At least three patients had recurrent symptoms after the initial illness, a common characteristic of Oropouche virus disease. Clinicians and public health jurisdictions should be aware of the occurrence of Oropouche virus disease in U.S. travelers and request testing for suspected cases. Travelers should prevent insect bites when traveling, and pregnant persons should consider deferring travel to areas experiencing outbreaks of Oropouche virus disease.


Subject(s)
Bunyaviridae Infections , Humans , United States/epidemiology , Female , Adult , Male , Bunyaviridae Infections/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Aged , Orthobunyavirus/isolation & purification , Travel , Young Adult , Travel-Related Illness , Disease Outbreaks , Cuba/epidemiology
3.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(1): 145-148, 2023 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36573733

ABSTRACT

In July 2019, Bourbon virus RNA was detected in an Amblyomma americanum tick removed from a resident of Long Island, New York, USA. Tick infection and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) serosurvey results demonstrate active transmission in New York, especially Suffolk County, emphasizing a need for surveillance anywhere A. americanum ticks are reported.


Subject(s)
Deer , Ticks , Animals , New York/epidemiology , Arachnid Vectors
4.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(3)2023 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36823761

ABSTRACT

Anaplasmosis, caused by the tickborne bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum, is an emerging public health threat in the United States. In the northeastern United States, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) transmits the human pathogenic genetic variant of A. phagocytophilum (Ap-ha) and a nonpathogenic variant (Ap-V1). New York has recently experienced a rapid and geographically focused increase in cases of anaplasmosis. We analyzed A. phagocytophilum-infected I. scapularis ticks collected across New York during 2008-2020 to differentiate between variants and calculate an entomological risk index (ERI) for each. Ap-ha ERI varied between regions and increased in all regions during the final years of the study. Space-time scan analyses detected expanding clusters of Ap-ha located within documented anaplasmosis hotspots. Ap-ha ERI was more positively correlated with anaplasmosis incidence than non-genotyped A. phagocytophilum ERI. Our findings help elucidate the relationship between the spatial ecology of A. phagocytophilum variants and anaplasmosis.


Subject(s)
Anaplasma phagocytophilum , Anaplasmosis , Ixodes , Animals , Humans , Ixodes/microbiology , Anaplasma phagocytophilum/genetics , Anaplasmosis/microbiology , New York , New England
5.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 28(6): 1170-1179, 2022 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35608612

ABSTRACT

Approximately 476,000 cases of Lyme disease are diagnosed in the United States annually, yet comprehensive economic evaluations are lacking. In a prospective study among reported cases in Lyme disease-endemic states, we estimated the total patient cost and total societal cost of the disease. In addition, we evaluated disease and demographic factors associated with total societal cost. Participants had a mean patient cost of ≈$1,200 (median $240) and a mean societal cost of ≈$2,000 (median $700). Patients with confirmed disseminated disease or probable disease had approximately double the societal cost of those with confirmed localized disease. The annual, aggregate cost of diagnosed Lyme disease could be $345-968 million (2016 US dollars) to US society. Our findings emphasize the importance of effective prevention and early diagnosis to reduce illness and associated costs. These results can be used in cost-effectiveness analyses of current and future prevention methods, such as a vaccine.


Subject(s)
Borrelia burgdorferi , Ixodes , Lyme Disease , Animals , Financial Stress , Humans , Incidence , Lyme Disease/diagnosis , Lyme Disease/epidemiology , Prospective Studies , United States/epidemiology
6.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 28(2): 303-313, 2022 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35075998

ABSTRACT

Cache Valley virus (CVV) is a mosquitoborne virus that infects livestock and humans. We report results of surveillance for CVV in New York, USA, during 2000-2016; full-genome analysis of selected CVV isolates from sheep, horse, humans, and mosquitoes from New York and Canada; and phenotypic characterization of selected strains. We calculated infection rates by using the maximum-likelihood estimation method by year, region, month, and mosquito species. The highest maximum-likelihood estimations were for Anopheles spp. mosquitoes. Our phylogenetic analysis identified 2 lineages and found evidence of segment reassortment. Furthermore, our data suggest displacement of CVV lineage 1 by lineage 2 in New York and Canada. Finally, we showed increased vector competence of An. quadrimaculatus mosquitoes for lineage 2 strains of CVV compared with lineage 1 strains.


Subject(s)
Anopheles , Bunyamwera virus , Animals , Bunyamwera virus/genetics , Horses , Mosquito Vectors , New York/epidemiology , Phylogeny , Sheep
7.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 71(33): 1065-1068, 2022 Aug 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35980868

ABSTRACT

On July 18, 2022, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) notified CDC of detection of poliovirus type 2 in stool specimens from an unvaccinated immunocompetent young adult from Rockland County, New York, who was experiencing acute flaccid weakness. The patient initially experienced fever, neck stiffness, gastrointestinal symptoms, and limb weakness. The patient was hospitalized with possible acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). Vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) was detected in stool specimens obtained on days 11 and 12 after initial symptom onset. To date, related Sabin-like type 2 polioviruses have been detected in wastewater* in the patient's county of residence and in neighboring Orange County up to 25 days before (from samples originally collected for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring) and 41 days after the patient's symptom onset. The last U.S. case of polio caused by wild poliovirus occurred in 1979, and the World Health Organization Region of the Americas was declared polio-free in 1994. This report describes the second identification of community transmission of poliovirus in the United States since 1979; the previous instance, in 2005, was a type 1 VDPV (1). The occurrence of this case, combined with the identification of poliovirus in wastewater in neighboring Orange County, underscores the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent paralytic polio in persons of all ages.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Poliomyelitis , Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral , Poliovirus , Humans , New York/epidemiology , Poliomyelitis/epidemiology , Poliomyelitis/prevention & control , Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral/adverse effects , Public Health , SARS-CoV-2 , Wastewater
8.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(8): 2154-2162, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34287128

ABSTRACT

Human granulocytic anaplasmosis, a tickborne disease caused by the bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum, was first identified during 1994 and is now an emerging public health threat in the United States. New York state (NYS) has experienced a recent increase in the incidence of anaplasmosis. We analyzed human case surveillance and tick surveillance data collected by the NYS Department of Health for spatiotemporal patterns of disease emergence. We describe the epidemiology and growing incidence of anaplasmosis cases reported during 2010-2018. Spatial analysis showed an expanding hot spot of anaplasmosis in the Capital Region, where incidence increased >8-fold. The prevalence of A. phagocytophilum increased greatly within tick populations in the Capital Region over the same period, and entomologic risk factors were correlated with disease incidence at a local level. These results indicate that anaplasmosis is rapidly emerging in a geographically focused area of NYS, likely driven by localized changes in exposure risk.


Subject(s)
Anaplasma phagocytophilum , Anaplasmosis , Ixodes , Tick-Borne Diseases , Anaplasma phagocytophilum/genetics , Anaplasmosis/epidemiology , Animals , Humans , New York/epidemiology
9.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(12): 3128-3132, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34648421

ABSTRACT

During 2018, Heartland virus RNA was detected in an Amblyomma americanum tick removed from a resident of Suffolk County, New York, USA. The person showed seroconversion. Tick surveillance and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) serosurveys showed widespread distribution in Suffolk County, emphasizing a need for disease surveillance anywhere A. americanum ticks are established or emerging.


Subject(s)
Deer , Phlebovirus , Ticks , Animals , Humans , New York/epidemiology
10.
Clin Infect Dis ; 70(8): 1768-1773, 2020 04 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31620776

ABSTRACT

Lyme disease, caused by some Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, is the most common tick-borne illness in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of cases, and geographic spread, continue to grow. Previously identified B. burgdorferi proteins, lipid immunogens, and live mutants lead the design of canonical vaccines aimed at disrupting infection in the host. Discovery of the mechanism of action of the first vaccine catalyzed the development of new strategies to control Lyme disease that bypassed direct vaccination of the human host. Thus, novel prevention concepts center on proteins produced by B. burgdorferi during tick transit and on tick proteins that mediate feeding and pathogen transmission. A burgeoning area of research is tick immunity as it can unlock mechanistic pathways that could be targeted for disruption. Studies that shed light on the mammalian immune pathways engaged during tick-transmitted B. burgdorferi infection would further development of vaccination strategies against Lyme disease.


Subject(s)
Borrelia burgdorferi , Ixodes , Lyme Disease , Ticks , Vaccines , Animals , Humans , Lyme Disease/prevention & control , Vaccination
12.
J Clin Microbiol ; 55(2): 535-544, 2017 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27927917

ABSTRACT

The performance and interpretation of laboratory tests for Zika virus (ZKV) continue to be evaluated. Serology is cross-reactive, laborious, and frequently difficult to interpret, and serum was initially solely recommended for molecular diagnosis. ZKV testing was initiated in January 2016 in New York State for symptomatic patients, pregnant women, their infants, and patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome who had traveled to areas with ZKV transmission. Subsequently, eligibility was expanded to pregnant women with sexual partners with similar travel histories. Serum and urine collected within 4 weeks of symptom onset or within 6 weeks of travel were tested with real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) assays targeting the ZKV envelope and NS2B genes. In this review of lessons learned from the first 80 positive cases in NYS, ZKV RNA was detected in urine only in 50 patients, in serum only in 19 patients, and in both samples concurrently in 11 patients, with average viral loads in urine a log higher than those in serum. Among 93 positive samples from the 80 patients, 41 were positive on both gene assays, 52 were positive on the envelope only, and none were positive on the NS2B only. Of the 80 infected patients, test results for 74 (93%) would have defined their infection status as not detected or equivocal if the requirement for positive results from two assay targets (two-target-positive requirement) in the initial federal guidance to public health laboratories was enforced, if urine was not tested, or if the extended eligibility time for molecular testing was not implemented. These changes facilitated more extensive molecular diagnosis of ZKV, reducing reliance on time-consuming and potentially inconclusive serology.


Subject(s)
Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction/methods , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction/methods , Zika Virus Infection/diagnosis , Zika Virus/isolation & purification , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Child , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , New York , Pregnancy , Serum/virology , Urine/virology , Young Adult
13.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 66(37): 999-1000, 2017 Sep 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28934181

ABSTRACT

Since 2011, the New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) has typically been notified of three or fewer cases of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection each year among men who have sex with men (MSM) who reported no travel to countries where HAV is endemic. This year, DOHMH noted an increase in HAV infections among MSM with onsets in January-March 2017, and notified other public health jurisdictions via Epi-X, CDC's communication exchange network. As a result, 51 patients with HAV infection involving MSM were linked to the increase in NYC.


Subject(s)
Hepatitis A/epidemiology , Homosexuality, Male , Adult , Humans , Incidence , Male , New York City/epidemiology
14.
J Infect Dis ; 214(2): 182-8, 2016 07 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26740276

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In the northeastern United States, tick-borne diseases are a major public health concern. In controlled studies, a single springtime application of acaricide has been shown to kill 68%-100% of ticks. Although public health authorities recommend use of acaricides to control tick populations in yards, the effectiveness of these pesticides to prevent tick bites or human tick-borne diseases is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a 2-year, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial among 2727 households in 3 northeastern states. Households received a single springtime barrier application of bifenthrin or water according to recommended practices. Tick drags were conducted 3-4 weeks after treatment on 10% of properties. Information on human-tick encounters and tick-borne diseases was collected through monthly surveys; reports of illness were validated by medical record review. RESULTS: Although the abundance of questing ticks was significantly lower (63%) on acaricide-treated properties, there was no difference between treatment groups in human-tick encounters, self-reported tick-borne diseases, or medical-record-validated tick-borne diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Used as recommended, acaricide barrier sprays do not significantly reduce the household risk of tick exposure or incidence of tick-borne disease. Measures for preventing tick-borne diseases should be evaluated against human outcomes to confirm effectiveness.


Subject(s)
Acaricides/administration & dosage , Tick Bites/prevention & control , Tick-Borne Diseases/prevention & control , Ticks/drug effects , Ticks/growth & development , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Animals , Child , Child, Preschool , Double-Blind Method , Family Characteristics , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , New England , Placebos/administration & dosage , Pyrethrins/administration & dosage , Tick Bites/epidemiology , Tick-Borne Diseases/epidemiology , Young Adult
15.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 63(43): 982-3, 2014 Oct 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25356607

ABSTRACT

On December 13, 2013, MMWR published a report describing three cases of sudden cardiac death associated with Lyme carditis. State public health departments and CDC conducted a follow-up investigation to determine 1) whether carditis was disproportionately common among certain demographic groups of patients diagnosed with Lyme disease, 2) the frequency of death among patients diagnosed with Lyme disease and Lyme carditis, and 3) whether any additional deaths potentially attributable to Lyme carditis could be identified. Lyme disease cases are reported to CDC through the Nationally Notifiable Disease Surveillance System; reporting of clinical features, including Lyme carditis, is optional. For surveillance purposes, Lyme carditis is defined as acute second-degree or third-degree atrioventricular conduction block accompanying a diagnosis of Lyme disease. During 2001-2010, a total of 256,373 Lyme disease case reports were submitted to CDC, of which 174,385 (68%) included clinical information. Among these, 1,876 (1.1%) were identified as cases of Lyme carditis. Median age of patients with Lyme carditis was 43 years (range = 1-99 years); 1,209 (65%) of the patients were male, which is disproportionately larger than the male proportion among patients with other clinical manifestations (p<0.001). Of cases with this information available, 69% were diagnosed during the months of June-August, and 42% patients had an accompanying erythema migrans, a characteristic rash. Relative to patients aged 55-59 years, carditis was more common among men aged 20-39 years, women aged 25-29 years, and persons aged ≥75 years.


Subject(s)
Death, Sudden, Cardiac/etiology , Lyme Disease/complications , Myocarditis/complications , Population Surveillance , Adolescent , Adult , Age Distribution , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Death, Sudden, Cardiac/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Lyme Disease/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Myocarditis/epidemiology , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Sex Distribution , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult
16.
J Med Entomol ; 61(2): 331-344, 2024 03 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38157309

ABSTRACT

The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) is a cause of statistical and visual bias when aggregating data according to spatial units, particularly when spatial units may be changed arbitrarily. The MAUP is a concern in vector-borne disease research when entomological metrics gathered from point-level sampling data are related to epidemiological data aggregated to administrative units like counties or ZIP Codes. Here, we assess the statistical impact of the MAUP when calculating correlations between randomly aggregated cases of anaplasmosis in New York State during 2017 and a geostatistical layer of an entomological risk index for Anaplasma phagocytophilum in blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) collected during the fall of 2017. Correlations were also calculated using various administrative boundaries for comparison. We also demonstrate the impact of the MAUP on data visualization using choropleth maps and offer pycnophylactic interpolation as an alternative. Polygon simulations indicate that increasing the number of polygons decreases correlation coefficients and their variability. Correlation coefficients calculated using ZIP Code tabulation area and Census tract polygons were beyond 4 standard deviations from the mean of the simulated correlation coefficients. These results indicate that using smaller polygons may not best incorporate the geographical context of the tick-borne disease system, despite the tendency of researchers to strive for more granular spatial data and associations.


Subject(s)
Anaplasma phagocytophilum , Anaplasmosis , Ixodes , Tick-Borne Diseases , Animals , New York
17.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 109(6): 1329-1332, 2023 12 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37972332

ABSTRACT

Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV) (Peribunyavirdae; Orthobunyavirus) is a mosquito-borne pathogen endemic to North America. The genome is composed of three segmented negative-sense RNA fragments designated as small, medium, and large. Jamestown Canyon virus is an emerging threat to public health, and infection in humans can cause severe neurological diseases, including encephalitis and meningitis. We report JCV mosquito surveillance data from 2001 to 2022 in New York state. Jamestown Canyon virus was detected in 12 mosquito species, with the greatest prevalence in Aedes canadensis and Anopheles punctipennis. Detection fluctuated annually, with the highest levels recorded in 2020. Overall, JCV infection rates were significantly greater from 2012 to 2022 compared with 2001 to 2011. Full-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were also performed with representative JCV isolates collected from 2003 to 2022. These data demonstrated the circulation of numerous genetic variants, broad geographic separation, and the first identification of lineage B JCV in New York state in 2022.


Subject(s)
Anopheles , Encephalitis Virus, California , Encephalitis, California , Animals , Humans , Encephalitis Virus, California/genetics , New York/epidemiology , Phylogeny
18.
J Med Entomol ; 60(4): 808-821, 2023 07 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37156099

ABSTRACT

Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) were collected from 432 locations across New York State (NYS) during the summer and autumn of 2015-2020 to determine the prevalence and geographic distribution of Borrelia miyamotoi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) and coinfections with other tick-borne pathogens. A total of 48,386 I. scapularis were individually analyzed using a multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction assay to simultaneously detect the presence of Bo. miyamotoi, Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae), Anaplasma phagocytophilum (Rickettsiales: Anaplasmataceae), and Babesia microti (Piroplasmida: Babesiidae). Overall prevalence of Bo. miyamotoi in host-seeking nymphs and adults varied geographically and temporally at the regional level. The rate of polymicrobial infection in Bo. miyamotoi-infected ticks varied by developmental stage, with certain co-infections occurring more frequently than expected by chance. Entomological risk of exposure to Bo. miyamotoi-infected nymphal and adult ticks (entomological risk index [ERI]) across NYS regions in relation to human cases of Bo. miyamotoi disease identified during the study period demonstrated spatial and temporal variation. The relationship between select environmental factors and Bo. miyamotoi ERI was explored using generalized linear mixed effects models, resulting in different factors significantly impacting ERI for nymphs and adult ticks. These results can inform estimates of Bo. miyamotoi disease risk and further our understanding of Bo. miyamotoi ecological dynamics in regions where this pathogen is known to occur.


Subject(s)
Borrelia burgdorferi , Borrelia , Coinfection , Ixodes , Ixodidae , Spirochaetaceae , Humans , Animals , New York , Nymph
19.
Curr Biol ; 33(12): 2515-2527.e6, 2023 06 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37295427

ABSTRACT

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and Culiseta melanura mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, similar to previous years, cases were driven by multiple independent but short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts was important for regional spread. We found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors which would explain the increase in cases in 2019, although the ecology of EEEV is complex and further data is required to explore these in more detail. By using detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut, however, we found that the abundance of Cs. melanura was exceptionally high in 2019, as was the EEEV infection rate. We employed these mosquito data to build a negative binomial regression model and applied it to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases. We found that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and vector index (abundance multiplied by infection rate) were predictive of cases later in the season. We therefore highlight the importance of mosquito surveillance programs as an integral part of public health and disease control.


Subject(s)
Culicidae , Encephalitis Virus, Eastern Equine , Encephalomyelitis, Equine , Songbirds , Animals , Horses , Humans , Encephalitis Virus, Eastern Equine/genetics , Mosquito Vectors , Encephalomyelitis, Equine/epidemiology , Encephalomyelitis, Equine/veterinary , Massachusetts/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/veterinary
20.
medRxiv ; 2023 Mar 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36945576

ABSTRACT

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans, and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and Culiseta melanura mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, like previous years, cases were driven by frequent short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts was important for regional spread. We found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors which would explain the increase in cases in 2019. By using detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut, however, we found that the abundance of Cs. melanura was exceptionally high in 2019, as was the EEEV infection rate. We employed these mosquito data to build a negative binomial regression model and applied it to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases. We found that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and vector index (abundance multiplied by infection rate) were predictive of cases later in the season. We therefore highlight the importance of mosquito surveillance programs as an integral part of public health and disease control.

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