A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies.

The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm. INTRODUCTION: Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients. RESULTS: Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men. CONCLUSIONS: A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.

Blood-based extracellular matrix biomarkers as predictors of survival in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma receiving pegvorhyaluronidase alfa.

BACKGROUND: Extensive extracellular matrix (ECM) remodeling is a hallmark of metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDA). We investigated fragments of collagen types III (C3M, PRO-C3), VI (PRO-C6), and VIII (C8-C), and versican (VCANM) in plasma as biomarkers for predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with mPDA treated with pegvorhyaluronidase alfa, a biologic that degrades the ECM component hyaluronan (HA), in a randomized phase 2 study (HALO109-202). METHODS: HALO109-202 comprised a discovery cohort (Stage 1, n = 94) and a validation cohort (Stage 2, n = 95). Plasma ECM biomarkers were analyzed by ELISAs. Univariate Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier plots evaluated predictive associations between biomarkers, PFS and OS in patients treated with pegvorhyaluronidase alfa plus nab-paclitaxel/gemcitabine (PAG) versus nab-paclitaxel/gemcitabine (AG) alone. RESULTS: PFS was improved with PAG vs. AG in Stage 1 patients with high C3M/PRO-C3 ratio (median cut-off): median PFS (mPFS) 8.0 vs. 5.3 months, P = 0.031; HR = 0.40; 95% CI 0.17-0.92). High C3M/PRO-C3 ratio was validated in Stage 2 patients by predicting a PFS benefit of PAG vs. AG (mPFS: 8.8 vs. 3.4 months, P = 0.046; HR = 0.46; 95% CI 0.21-0.98). OS was also improved in patients with high C3M/PRO-C3 ratio treated with PAG vs. AG (mOS 13.8 vs 8.5 months, P = 0.009; HR = 0.35; 95% CI 0.16-0.77). Interestingly, high C3M/PRO-C3 ratio predicted for a PFS benefit to PAG vs. AG both in patients with HA-low tumors (HR = 0.36; 95% CI 0.17-0.79) and HA-high tumors (HR = 0.20; 95% CI 0.06-0.69). CONCLUSIONS: The C3M/PRO-C3 ratio measuring type III collagen turnover in plasma has potential as a blood-based predictive biomarker in patients with mPDA and provides additional value to a HA biopsy when applied for patient selection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01839487. Registered 25 April 2016.

Incidence of total hip and total knee replacements from the prospective epidemiologic risk factor study: considerations for event driven clinical trial design.

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis (OA) leads to joint failure and total joint replacement (TJR, either hip (H) or knee (K)). Worsening of pain and joint space narrowing are believed to be surrogates for joint failure; however, we hypothesize that TJR, as a reflection of joint failure, can be used as an endpoint in event-driven clinical trials within a reasonable duration. We explored the incidence of TJR in the Prospective Epidemiologic Risk Factor (PERF I) study. METHODS: A total of 5855 Danish postmenopausal women aged 49-88 enrolled in the PERF I study during 1999-2001 (baseline). Three-, six- and twelve-year follow-up data from the Danish National Patient Registry was collected, including occurrence of TJR and OA diagnosis. At baseline the women were asked whether they had OA. RESULTS: The women with a TJR diagnosis before or after baseline were on average 1 year older (p < 0.001) and heavier (p < 0.001), compared to women with no TJR. The 3-, 6- and 12-year cumulative incidences were 1.1, 2.4 and 6.0% for TKR, and 2.1, 4.4 and 9.3% for THR. For those with an OA diagnosis at baseline the respective incidences were 2.7, 5.6 and 11.7% and 3.9, 7.2 and 13.6% CONCLUSIONS: Within 3, 6 or 12 years TJR incidences were double for women with an OA diagnosis compared to the all-comer population. TJRs are frequent amongst elderly women with OA and it is, therefore, feasible to conduct event-driven clinical trials where TJR is the endpoint demonstrating clinical benefit of a novel disease-modifying OA drug (DMOAD).

Quantification of altered tissue turnover in a liquid biopsy: a proposed precision medicine tool to assess chronic inflammation and desmoplasia associated with a pro-cancerous niche and response to immuno-therapeutic anti-tumor modalities.

Immuno-therapy has begun to revolutionize cancer treatment. However, despite the significant progress achieved in regard to the duration of clinical benefits, a substantial number of patients do not respond to these therapies. To improve the outcome of patients receiving immuno-therapy, there is a need for novel biomarkers that can predict and monitor treatment. Tumor microenvironment alterations, more specifically the state of chronic inflammation and desmoplasia (tumor fibrosis), are important factors to consider in this context. Here, we discuss the potential for quantification of altered tissue turnover in a liquid biopsy as a proposed precision medicine tool to assess chronic inflammation and desmoplasia in the immuno-oncology (IO) setting. We highlight the need for novel non-invasive biomarkers in IO and the importance of addressing tumor microenvironment alterations. We focus on desmoplasia and extracellular matrix (ECM) remodeling, and how the composition of the ECM defines T-cell permissiveness in the tumor microenvironment and opens up the possibility for associated liquid biopsy biomarkers. Moreover, we address the importance of the assessment of chronic inflammation, primarily macrophage activity, in a liquid biopsy.

Novel insights into the function and dynamics of extracellular matrix in liver fibrosis.

Emerging evidence suggests that altered components and posttranslational modifications of proteins in the extracellular matrix (ECM) may both initiate and drive disease progression. The ECM is a complex grid consisting of multiple proteins, most of which play a vital role in containing the essential information needed for maintenance of a sophisticated structure anchoring the cells and sustaining normal function of tissues. Therefore, the matrix itself may be considered as a paracrine/endocrine entity, with more complex functions than previously appreciated. The aims of this review are to 1) explore key structural and functional components of the ECM as exemplified by monogenetic disorders leading to severe pathologies, 2) discuss selected pathological posttranslational modifications of ECM proteins resulting in altered functional (signaling) properties from the original structural proteins, and 3) discuss how these findings support the novel concept that an increasing number of components of the ECM harbor signaling functions that can modulate fibrotic liver disease. The ECM entails functions in addition to anchoring cells and modulating their migratory behavior. Key ECM components and their posttranslational modifications often harbor multiple domains with different signaling potential, in particular when modified during inflammation or wound healing. This signaling by the ECM should be considered a paracrine/endocrine function, as it affects cell phenotype, function, fate, and finally tissue homeostasis. These properties should be exploited to establish novel biochemical markers and antifibrotic treatment strategies for liver fibrosis as well as other fibrotic diseases.

Extracellular matrix specific protein fingerprints measured in serum can separate pancreatic cancer patients from healthy controls.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is an aggressive disease with an urgent need for biomarkers. Hallmarks of PC include increased collagen deposition (desmoplasia) and increased matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activity. The aim of this study was to investigate whether protein fingerprints of specific MMP-generated collagen fragments differentiate PC patients from healthy controls when measured in serum. METHODS: The levels of biomarkers reflecting MMP-mediated degradation of type I (C1M), type III (C3M) and type IV (C4M, C4M12a1) collagen were assessed in serum samples from PC patients (n = 15) and healthy controls (n = 33) using well-characterized and validated competitive ELISAs. RESULTS: The MMP-generated collagen fragments were significantly elevated in serum from PC patients as compared to controls. The diagnostic power of C1M, C3M, C4M and C4M12 were ≥83% (p < 0.001) and when combining all biomarkers 99% (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A panel of serum biomarkers reflecting altered MMP-mediated collagen turnover is able to differentiate PC patients from healthy controls. These markers may increase the understanding of mode of action of the disease and, if validated in larger clinical studies, provide an improved and additional tool in the PC setting.

Atrial fibrillation is associated with lean body mass in postmenopausal women.

This study investigated the association between body composition and risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in postmenopausal women. In a retrospective analysis we assessed data from 5704 postmenopausal women (age 70.7 ± 6.5 yrs.) who in 1999-2001 participated in The Prospective Epidemiological Risk Factor study with body composition assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Outcomes were obtained from Danish Health Registries and body composition association to risk of AF was evaluated by univariable and multivariable Cox Hazard regression. 850 women developed AF after baseline. High lean body mass was associated with increased risk of AF in multivariable analyses, adjusting for body mass index (BMI), height or weight (adjusted for: BMI, hazard ratio (HR) 1.49, 95% Confidence Interval (1.22-1.80); height, HR 1.27 (1.03-1.56); weight, 1.33 (1.06-1.65)). Height and weight were associated with increased risk of AF in multivariable analyses adjusting for body composition measures. When adjusting for total lean mass, only height remained statistically significant (HR 1.34 (1.09-1.64)). In a cohort of elderly Caucasian women, high lean body mass, height and weight were associated with increased risk of AF and the variables remained significant after adjusting for age and other known risk factors of AF.

Nidogen-1 Degraded by Cathepsin S can be Quantified in Serum and is Associated with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Loss of basement membrane (BM) integrity is typically associated with cancer. Nidogen-1 is an essential component of the BM. Nidogen-1 is a substrate for cathepsin-S (CatS) which is released into the tumor microenvironment. Measuring nidogen-1 degraded by CatS may therefore have biomarker potential in cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate if CatS-degraded nidogen-1 was detectable in serum and a possible biomarker for cancer, a pathology associated with disruption of the BM. A competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (NIC) was developed with a monoclonal mouse antibody specific for a CatS cleavage site on human nidogen-1. Dilution and spiking recovery, inter- and intravariation, as well as accuracy were evaluated. Serum levels were evaluated in patients with breast cancer, small cell lung cancer (SCLC), and non-SCLC (NSCLC) and in healthy controls. The results indicated that the NIC assay was specific for nidogen-1 cleaved by CatS. Inter- and intraassay variations were 9% and 14%, respectively. NIC was elevated in NSCLC as compared to healthy controls (P<.001), breast cancer (P<.01), and SCLC (P<.5). The diagnostic power (area under the receiver operating characteristics) of NIC for NSCLC as compared to all other samples combined was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.95), P<.0001. In conclusion, nidogen-1 degraded by CatS can be quantified in serum by the NIC assay. The current data strongly suggest that cathepsin-S degradation of nidogen-1 is strongly associated with NSCLC, which needs validation in larger clinical cohorts.

Unique insight into microenvironmental changes in colorectal cancer: Ex vivo assessment of matrix metalloprotease-mediated molecular changes in human colorectal tumor tissue and corresponding non-neoplastic adjacent tissue.

Matrix metalloprotease (MMP)-mediated tissue remodeling is one of the malignant changes driving colorectal cancer. Measurement of altered MMP expression/activity is not sufficient to fully understand the effect of MMP-mediated tissue remodeling. Biomarkers are required that specifically reflect the dynamic processes of the MMP-mediated degradation of signature proteins from colorectal tissue. The aim of the present study was to profile and characterize the release of MMP-degraded type III collagen (C3M) and citrullinated and MMP-degraded vimentin (VICM) from tumor tissue and corresponding non-neoplastic adjacent tissue (NAT) in a human colorectal cancer ex vivo model. Colorectal tumor tissue and NAT biopsies from tissue removed during resection of colorectal cancer patients (n=13) were cut into pieces of 2 mm2 and cultured for 24 h in growth medium. C3M and VICM were evaluated by ELISA. As part of the characterization, C3M was determined subsequent to the tumor tissue being cleaved with recombinant MMP-2/-9 and trypsin. C3M was generated by MMP-2/-9, but not by trypsin. In addition, the level of C3M was significantly elevated in the conditioned medium from tumor tissues (3.7 ng/ml) compared with that observed in the conditioned medium from the NATs (2.2 ng/ml) and in the growth medium alone (1.9 ng/ml). The level of VICM was significantly elevated in the tumor tissues (0.51 ng/ml) and NATs (0.52 ng/ml) compared with that in the growth medium alone (0.03 ng/ml). No differences were detected between the tumor tissues and NATs. No correlation was observed between biomarker levels from the tumor tissue and corresponding NAT, and the biomarker levels did not correlate with tumor stage. In conclusion, the present study provided support of the concept that C3M and VICM are applicable as tools to investigate dynamic tissue changes of colorectal tumor tissue and corresponding NAT. By the assessment of these specific MMP-mediated molecular changes, the present study provides novel and relevant insight into the dynamic changes of colorectal tumor tissue and corresponding NAT.

Excessive matrix metalloprotease-mediated degradation of interstitial tissue (type I collagen) independently predicts short-term survival in an observational study of postmenopausal women diagnosed with cancer.

Extensive tissue remodeling mediated by matrix metalloproteases (MMPs) is an important part of cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate whether serum biomarkers reflecting MMP-mediated degradation of type I collagen (C1M), type IV collagen (C4M) and citrullinated vimentin (VICM) were predictive of cancer-specific mortality. Between 1999 and 2001, 5855 Danish postmenopausal women participated in The Prospective Epidemiologic Risk Factor (PERF I) study. Demographics and serum samples were collected at enrolment. Cancer diagnosis, and cause and time of death were obtained from Danish registries. C1M, C4M and VICM were measured by ELISA. Hazard ratios (HR) and Kaplan-Meier curves were applied to assess mortality at 3 and 12 years of follow-up for women diagnosed with cancer within 3 years from blood sampling. Within 3 years from blood sampling, 250 women had been diagnosed with cancer. C1M and VICM were associated with survival over time at 3 years of follow-up. Only C1M was predictive of mortality at 3 years follow-up: the adjusted HR was 2.65 [95% CI: 1.08-6.51]. In conclusion, C1M and VICM are associated with survival in postmenopausal women with cancer, and C1M is an independent risk factor for cancer-specific mortality. Thus, quantification of tissue remodeling is important in cancer.

Remodeling of the Tumor Microenvironment Predicts Increased Risk of Cancer in Postmenopausal Women: The Prospective Epidemiologic Risk Factor (PERF I) Study.

BACKGROUND: An altered tumor microenvironment is one of the earliest signs of cancer and an important driver of the disease. We have seen previously that biomarkers reflecting tumor microenvironment modifications, such as matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-degraded type 1 collagen (C1M), MMP-degraded type IV collagen (C4M), and citrullinated and MMP-degraded vimentin (VICM), were higher in the serum of cancer patients than in healthy controls. However, it is not known if these biomarkers could predict an increased risk of cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate whether C1M, C4M, and VICM were elevated prior to diagnosis of solid cancers in a large prospective study. METHODS: Between 1999 and 2001, 5,855 postmenopausal Danish women ages 48 to 89 years enrolled in the Prospective Epidemiologic Risk Factor study. Baseline demographics and serum were collected at the time of registration. Follow up cancer diagnoses were obtained from the Danish Cancer Registry in 2014. Serum C1M, C4M, and VICM levels were measured by competitive ELISAs. RESULTS: A total of 881 women were diagnosed with solid cancers after baseline. C1M, C4M, and VICM levels were significantly elevated in women diagnosed less than 1 year after baseline. C1M and VICM, but not C4M, were independent predictors of increased risk of cancer. CONCLUSION: C1M, C4M, and VICM are elevated prior to cancer diagnosis. C1M and VICM are both independent predictors of increased cancer risk. IMPACT: C1M and VICM are predictors for increased risk of cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(9); 1348-55. ©2016 AACR.

Serum biomarkers reflecting specific tumor tissue remodeling processes are valuable diagnostic tools for lung cancer.

Extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins, such as collagen type I and elastin, and intermediate filament (IMF) proteins, such as vimentin are modified and dysregulated as part of the malignant changes leading to disruption of tissue homeostasis. Noninvasive biomarkers that reflect such changes may have a great potential for cancer. Levels of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) generated fragments of type I collagen (C1M), of elastin (ELM), and of citrullinated vimentin (VICM) were measured in serum from patients with lung cancer (n = 40), gastrointestinal cancer (n = 25), prostate cancer (n = 14), malignant melanoma (n = 7), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (n = 13), and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) (n = 10), as well as in age-matched controls (n = 33). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) was calculated and a diagnostic decision tree generated from specific cutoff values. C1M and VICM were significantly elevated in lung cancer patients as compared with healthy controls (AUROC = 0.98, P < 0.0001) and other cancers (AUROC = 0.83 P < 0.0001). A trend was detected when comparing lung cancer with COPD+IPF. No difference could be seen for ELM. Interestingly, C1M and VICM were able to identify patients with lung cancer with a positive predictive value of 0.9 and an odds ratio of 40 (95% CI = 8.7-186, P < 0.0001). Biomarkers specifically reflecting degradation of collagen type I and citrullinated vimentin are applicable for lung cancer patients. Our data indicate that biomarkers reflecting ECM and IMF protein dysregulation are highly applicable in the lung cancer setting. We speculate that these markers may aid in diagnosing and characterizing patients with lung cancer.