Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.

BACKGROUND: A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. METHODS: This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0-75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4-97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8-80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3-4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca.

Single-dose administration and the influence of the timing of the booster dose on immunogenicity and efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine: a pooled analysis of four randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine has been approved for emergency use by the UK regulatory authority, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, with a regimen of two standard doses given with an interval of 4-12 weeks. The planned roll-out in the UK will involve vaccinating people in high-risk categories with their first dose immediately, and delivering the second dose 12 weeks later. Here, we provide both a further prespecified pooled analysis of trials of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and exploratory analyses of the impact on immunogenicity and efficacy of extending the interval between priming and booster doses. In addition, we show the immunogenicity and protection afforded by the first dose, before a booster dose has been offered. METHODS: We present data from three single-blind randomised controlled trials-one phase 1/2 study in the UK (COV001), one phase 2/3 study in the UK (COV002), and a phase 3 study in Brazil (COV003)-and one double-blind phase 1/2 study in South Africa (COV005). As previously described, individuals 18 years and older were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive two standard doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (5 × 1010 viral particles) or a control vaccine or saline placebo. In the UK trial, a subset of participants received a lower dose (2·2 × 1010 viral particles) of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 for the first dose. The primary outcome was virologically confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 disease, defined as a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT)-positive swab combined with at least one qualifying symptom (fever ≥37·8°C, cough, shortness of breath, or anosmia or ageusia) more than 14 days after the second dose. Secondary efficacy analyses included cases occuring at least 22 days after the first dose. Antibody responses measured by immunoassay and by pseudovirus neutralisation were exploratory outcomes. All cases of COVID-19 with a NAAT-positive swab were adjudicated for inclusion in the analysis by a masked independent endpoint review committee. The primary analysis included all participants who were SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative at baseline, had had at least 14 days of follow-up after the second dose, and had no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection from NAAT swabs. Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose. The four trials are registered at ISRCTN89951424 (COV003) and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606 (COV001), NCT04400838 (COV002), and NCT04444674 (COV005). FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Dec 6, 2020, 24 422 participants were recruited and vaccinated across the four studies, of whom 17 178 were included in the primary analysis (8597 receiving ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 8581 receiving control vaccine). The data cutoff for these analyses was Dec 7, 2020. 332 NAAT-positive infections met the primary endpoint of symptomatic infection more than 14 days after the second dose. Overall vaccine efficacy more than 14 days after the second dose was 66·7% (95% CI 57·4-74·0), with 84 (1·0%) cases in the 8597 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 248 (2·9%) in the 8581 participants in the control group. There were no hospital admissions for COVID-19 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group after the initial 21-day exclusion period, and 15 in the control group. 108 (0·9%) of 12 282 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 127 (1·1%) of 11 962 participants in the control group had serious adverse events. There were seven deaths considered unrelated to vaccination (two in the ChAdOx1 nCov-19 group and five in the control group), including one COVID-19-related death in one participant in the control group. Exploratory analyses showed that vaccine efficacy after a single standard dose of vaccine from day 22 to day 90 after vaccination was 76·0% (59·3-85·9). Our modelling analysis indicated that protection did not wane during this initial 3-month period. Similarly, antibody levels were maintained during this period with minimal waning by day 90 (geometric mean ratio [GMR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·59-0·74]). In the participants who received two standard doses, after the second dose, efficacy was higher in those with a longer prime-boost interval (vaccine efficacy 81·3% [95% CI 60·3-91·2] at ≥12 weeks) than in those with a short interval (vaccine efficacy 55·1% [33·0-69·9] at <6 weeks). These observations are supported by immunogenicity data that showed binding antibody responses more than two-fold higher after an interval of 12 or more weeks compared with an interval of less than 6 weeks in those who were aged 18-55 years (GMR 2·32 [2·01-2·68]). INTERPRETATION: The results of this primary analysis of two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 were consistent with those seen in the interim analysis of the trials and confirm that the vaccine is efficacious, with results varying by dose interval in exploratory analyses. A 3-month dose interval might have advantages over a programme with a short dose interval for roll-out of a pandemic vaccine to protect the largest number of individuals in the population as early as possible when supplies are scarce, while also improving protection after receiving a second dose. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR), The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, the Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca.

Active Intrapartum SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Pregnancy Outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection during pregnancy has been associated with poor pregnancy outcomes. There is, however, not much information on the impact of the timing of SARS-CoV-2 infection on pregnancy outcomes, and studies from low-middle income settings are also scarce. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional study from April to December 2020, in South Africa, to assess the association of SARS-CoV-2 infection on a nasal swab at the time of labor with fetal death, preterm birth, low birth weight, or pregnancy-induced complications. When possible, maternal blood, cord blood, and placenta were collected. SARS-CoV-2 infection was investigated by a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT). RESULTS: Overall, 3,117 women were tested for SARS-CoV-2 on a nasal swab, including 1,562 (50%) healthy women with uncomplicated term delivery. A positive NAAT was detected among 132 (4%) women. Adverse birth outcomes or pregnancy-related complications were not associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of labor. Among SARS-CoV-2-infected women, an NAAT-positive result was also obtained from 6 out of 98 (6%) maternal blood samples, 8 out of 93 (9%) cord-blood samples, 14 out of 54 (26%) placentas, and 3 out of 22 (14%) nasopharyngeal swabs from newborns collected within 72 hours of birth. Histological assessment of placental tissue revealed that women with SARS-CoV-2 nasal infection had a higher odds (3.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.20, 12.19) of chronic chorioamnionitis compared with those without SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates that intrapartum, SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with evaluated poor outcomes. In utero fetal and placental infections and possible vertical and/or horizontal viral transfer to the newborn were detected among women with nasal SARS-CoV-2 infection. KEY POINTS: · Intrapartum SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with evaluated poor outcomes.. · In utero fetal and placental infections were detected among women with nasal SARS-CoV-2 infection.. · Women with SARS-CoV-2 nasal infection had a higher odds of chronic chorioamnionitis..

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection Among Healthcare Workers in South Africa: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

From April to September 2020, we investigated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in a cohort of 396 healthcare workers (HCWs) from 5 departments at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, South Africa. Overall, 34.6% of HCWs had polymerase chain reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (132.1 [95% confidence interval, 111.8-156.2] infections per 1000 person-months); an additional 27 infections were identified by serology. HCWs in the internal medicine department had the highest rate of infection (61.7%). Among polymerase chain reaction-confirmed cases, 10.4% remained asymptomatic, 30.4% were presymptomatic, and 59.3% were symptomatic.

Deaths Attributed to Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children in High-Mortality Rate Settings: Report from Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS).

BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory tract infections are a leading cause of death in young children, but few studies have collected the specimens needed to define the role of specific causes. The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) platform aims to investigate causes of death in children aged <5 years in high-mortality rate settings, using postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling and other advanced diagnostic techniques. We examined findings for deaths identified in CHAMPS sites in 7 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to evaluate the role of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). METHODS: We included deaths that occurred between December 2016 and December 2019. Panels determined causes of deaths by reviewing all available data including pathological results from minimally invasive tissue sampling, polymerase chain reaction screening for multiple infectious pathogens in lung tissue, nasopharyngeal swab, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid samples, clinical information from medical records, and verbal autopsies. RESULTS: We evaluated 1213 deaths, including 695 in neonates (aged <28 days), 283 in infants (28 days to <12 months), and 235 in children (12-59 months). RSV was detected in postmortem specimens in 67 of 1213 deaths (5.5%); in 24 deaths (2.0% of total), RSV was determined to be a cause of death, and it contributed to 5 other deaths. Younger infants (28 days to <6 months of age) accounted for half of all deaths attributed to RSV; 6.5% of all deaths in younger infants were attributed to RSV. RSV was the underlying and only cause in 4 deaths; the remainder (n = 20) had a median of 2 (range, 1-5) other conditions in the causal chain. Birth defects (n = 8) and infections with other pathogens (n = 17) were common comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: RSV is an important cause of child deaths, particularly in young infants. These findings add to the substantial body of literature calling for better treatment and prevention options for RSV in high-mortality rate settings.

The Etiology of Pneumonia From Analysis of Lung Aspirate and Pleural Fluid Samples: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

BACKGROUND: An improved understanding of childhood pneumonia etiology is required to inform prevention and treatment strategies. Lung aspiration is the gold standard specimen for pneumonia diagnostics. We report findings from analyses of lung and pleural aspirates collected in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study. METHODS: The PERCH study enrolled children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 countries in Africa and Asia. Percutaneous transthoracic lung aspiration (LA) and pleural fluid (PF) aspiration was performed on a sample of pneumonia cases with radiological consolidation and/or PF in 4 countries. Venous blood and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected from all cases. Multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and routine microbiologic culture were applied to clinical specimens. RESULTS: Of 44 LAs performed within 3 days of admission on 622 eligible cases, 13 (30%) had a pathogen identified by either culture (5/44) or by PCR (11/29). A pathogen was identified in 12/14 (86%) PF specimens tested by either culture (9/14) or PCR (9/11). Bacterial pathogens were identified more frequently than viruses. All but 1 of the cases with a virus identified were coinfected with bacterial pathogens. Streptococcus pneumoniae (9/44 [20%]) and Staphylococcus aureus (7/14 [50%]) were the predominant pathogens identified in LA and PF, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial pathogens predominated in this selected subgroup of PERCH participants drawn from those with radiological consolidation or PF, with S. pneumoniae and S. aureus the leading pathogens identified.

Postmortem investigations and identification of multiple causes of child deaths: An analysis of findings from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network.

BACKGROUND: The current burden of >5 million deaths yearly is the focus of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) to end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years old by 2030. To accelerate progression toward this goal, data are needed that accurately quantify the leading causes of death, so that interventions can target the common causes. By adding postmortem pathology and microbiology studies to other available data, the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network provides comprehensive evaluations of conditions leading to death, in contrast to standard methods that rely on data from medical records and verbal autopsy and report only a single underlying condition. We analyzed CHAMPS data to characterize the value of considering multiple causes of death. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined deaths identified from December 2016 through November 2020 from 7 CHAMPS sites (in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa), including 741 neonatal, 278 infant, and 241 child <5 years deaths for which results from Determination of Cause of Death (DeCoDe) panels were complete. DeCoDe panelists included all conditions in the causal chain according to the ICD-10 guidelines and assessed if prevention or effective management of the condition would have prevented the death. We analyzed the distribution of all conditions listed as causal, including underlying, antecedent, and immediate causes of death. Among 1,232 deaths with an underlying condition determined, we found a range of 0 to 6 (mean 1.5, IQR 0 to 2) additional conditions in the causal chain leading to death. While pathology provides very helpful clues, we cannot always be certain that conditions identified led to death or occurred in an agonal stage of death. For neonates, preterm birth complications (most commonly respiratory distress syndrome) were the most common underlying condition (n = 282, 38%); among those with preterm birth complications, 256 (91%) had additional conditions in causal chains, including 184 (65%) with a different preterm birth complication, 128 (45%) with neonatal sepsis, 69 (24%) with lower respiratory infection (LRI), 60 (21%) with meningitis, and 25 (9%) with perinatal asphyxia/hypoxia. Of the 278 infant deaths, 212 (79%) had ≥1 additional cause of death (CoD) beyond the underlying cause. The 2 most common underlying conditions in infants were malnutrition and congenital birth defects; LRI and sepsis were the most common additional conditions in causal chains, each accounting for approximately half of deaths with either underlying condition. Of the 241 child deaths, 178 (75%) had ≥1 additional condition. Among 46 child deaths with malnutrition as the underlying condition, all had ≥1 other condition in the causal chain, most commonly sepsis, followed by LRI, malaria, and diarrheal disease. Including all positions in the causal chain for neonatal deaths resulted in 19-fold and 11-fold increases in attributable roles for meningitis and LRI, respectively. For infant deaths, the proportion caused by meningitis and sepsis increased by 16-fold and 11-fold, respectively; for child deaths, sepsis and LRI are increased 12-fold and 10-fold, respectively. While comprehensive CoD determinations were done for a substantial number of deaths, there is potential for bias regarding which deaths in surveillance areas underwent minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), potentially reducing representativeness of findings. CONCLUSIONS: Including conditions that appear anywhere in the causal chain, rather than considering underlying condition alone, markedly changed the proportion of deaths attributed to various diagnoses, especially LRI, sepsis, and meningitis. While CHAMPS methods cannot determine when 2 conditions cause death independently or may be synergistic, our findings suggest that considering the chain of events leading to death can better guide research and prevention priorities aimed at reducing child deaths.

The Predictive Performance of a Pneumonia Severity Score in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-negative Children Presenting to Hospital in 7 Low- and Middle-income Countries.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, pneumonia remained the leading cause of mortality in children aged 1-59 months. METHODS: Data from 1802 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study with severe or very severe pneumonia during 2011-2014 were used to build a parsimonious multivariable model predicting mortality using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The PERCH severity score, derived from model coefficients, was validated on a second, temporally discrete dataset of a further 1819 cases and compared to other available scores using the C statistic. RESULTS: Predictors of mortality, across 7 low- and middle-income countries, were age <1 year, female sex, ≥3 days of illness prior to presentation to hospital, low weight for height, unresponsiveness, deep breathing, hypoxemia, grunting, and the absence of cough. The model discriminated well between those who died and those who survived (C statistic = 0.84), but the predictive capacity of the PERCH 5-stratum score derived from the coefficients was moderate (C statistic = 0.76). The performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children score was similar (C statistic = 0.76). The number of World Health Organization (WHO) danger signs demonstrated the highest discrimination (C statistic = 0.82; 1.5% died if no danger signs, 10% if 1 danger sign, and 33% if ≥2 danger signs). CONCLUSIONS: The PERCH severity score could be used to interpret geographic variations in pneumonia mortality and etiology. The number of WHO danger signs on presentation to hospital could be the most useful of the currently available tools to aid clinical management of pneumonia.

Molecular Subtyping of Human Rhinovirus in Children from Three Sub-Saharan African Countries.

The pathogenesis of human rhinovirus (HRV) during severe respiratory disease remains undefined; thus, we aimed to explore the relationship between the HRV molecular subtyping results obtained during severe and asymptomatic childhood infections. Nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs from children (1 to 59 months of age) hospitalized with pneumonia and from age-frequency-matched controls were collected between August 2011 and August 2013. Swabs were tested for respiratory pathogens, including HRV, using quantitative real-time PCR assays. HRV-positive samples were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis by targeting the 5' noncoding region (5'NCR). Our data showed that there were no differences in the prevalence of HRV detection among cases and controls (21% versus 20%, P = 0.693); however, among children 13 to 59 months old, HRV detection was more often case associated (21% versus 16%; P = 0.009), with the results mainly driven by HRV-C (12% versus 7%; P = 0.001). Overall, there were no differences in the results of molecular subtyping of the HRV species prevalence among cases (for HRV-A, 48%; for HRV-B, 7%; for HRV-C, 45%) and controls (for HRV-A, 45%; for HRV-B, 10%; for HRV-C, 45% [P = 0.496]). Those with pneumonia and HRV-C were older (12.1 versus 9.4 months, P = 0.033) and more likely to present with wheeze (35% versus 25%, P = 0.031) than those with HRV-A cases. Thus, the rate of HRV detection was high, with similar degrees of genetic diversity among cases and controls, confounding the interpretation of the presence of HRV in nasopharyngeal samples for attribution of a causal role in the pathogenesis of severe pneumonia in infants. However, among children 13 to 59 months of age, HRV detection, in particular, HRV-C detection, was associated with case status, especially among children with wheezing disease.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. METHODS: We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. FINDINGS: We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. INTERPRETATION: Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Incremental Value of Repeated Induced Sputum and Gastric Aspirate Samples for the Diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Young Children With Acute Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND.: Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) contributes to the pathogenesis of childhood acute community-acquired pneumonia in settings with a high tuberculosis burden. The incremental value of a repeated induced sputum (IS) sample, compared with a single IS or gastric aspirate (GA) sample, is not well known. METHODS.: Two IS samples were obtained for Mtb culture from children enrolled as cases in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study in South Africa. Nonstudy attending physicians requested GA if pulmonary tuberculosis was clinically suspected. We compared the Mtb yield of 2 IS samples to that of 1 IS sample and GA samples. RESULTS: . Twenty-seven (3.0%) culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases were identified among 906 children investigated with IS and GA samples for Mtb. Results from 2 IS samples were available for 719 children (79.4%). Of 12 culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases identified among children with ≥2 IS samples, 4 (33.3%) were negative at the first IS sample. In head-to-head comparisons among children with both GA and IS samples collected, the yield of 1 GA sample (8 of 427; 1.9%) was similar to that of 1 IS sample (5 of 427, 1.2%), and the yield of 2 GA samples (10 of 300; 3.3%) was similar to that of 2 IS samples (5 of 300; 1.7%). IS samples identified 8 (42.1%) of the 19 culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases that were identified through submission of IS and GA samples. CONCLUSIONS.: A single IS sample underestimated the presence of Mtb in children hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia. Detection of Mtb is enhanced by combining 2 IS with GA sample collections in young children with acute severe pneumonia.

Standardization of Laboratory Methods for the PERCH Study.

The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study was conducted across 7 diverse research sites and relied on standardized clinical and laboratory methods for the accurate and meaningful interpretation of pneumonia etiology data. Blood, respiratory specimens, and urine were collected from children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia and community controls of the same age without severe pneumonia and were tested with an extensive array of laboratory diagnostic tests. A standardized testing algorithm and standard operating procedures were applied across all study sites. Site laboratories received uniform training, equipment, and reagents for core testing methods. Standardization was further assured by routine teleconferences, in-person meetings, site monitoring visits, and internal and external quality assurance testing. Targeted confirmatory testing and testing by specialized assays were done at a central reference laboratory.

Limited Utility of Polymerase Chain Reaction in Induced Sputum Specimens for Determining the Causes of Childhood Pneumonia in Resource-Poor Settings: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

BACKGROUND.: Sputum examination can be useful in diagnosing the cause of pneumonia in adults but is less well established in children. We sought to assess the diagnostic utility of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of respiratory viruses and bacteria in induced sputum (IS) specimens from children hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia. METHODS.: Among children aged 1-59 months, we compared organism detection by multiplex PCR in IS and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) specimens. To assess whether organism presence or density in IS specimens was associated with chest radiographic evidence of pneumonia (radiographic pneumonia), we compared prevalence and density in IS specimens from children with radiographic pneumonia and children with suspected pneumonia but without chest radiographic changes or clinical or laboratory findings suggestive of pneumonia (nonpneumonia group). RESULTS.: Among 4232 cases with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia, we identified 1935 (45.7%) with radiographic pneumonia and 573 (13.5%) with nonpneumonia. The organism detection yield was marginally improved with IS specimens (96.2% vs 92.4% for NP/OP specimens for all viruses combined [P = .41]; 96.9% vs 93.3% for all bacteria combined [P = .01]). After accounting for presence in NP/OP specimens, no organism was detected more frequently in the IS specimens from the radiographic pneumonia compared with the nonpneumonia cases. Among high-quality IS specimens, there were no statistically significant differences in organism density, except with cytomegalovirus, for which there was a higher quantity in the IS specimens from cases with radiographic pneumonia compared with the nonpneumonia cases (median cycle threshold value, 27.9 vs 28.5, respectively; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS.: Using advanced molecular methods with IS specimens provided little additional diagnostic information beyond that obtained with NP/OP swab specimens.

Density of Upper Respiratory Colonization With Streptococcus pneumoniae and Its Role in the Diagnosis of Pneumococcal Pneumonia Among Children Aged <5 Years in the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND.: Previous studies suggested an association between upper airway pneumococcal colonization density and pneumococcal pneumonia, but data in children are limited. Using data from the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study, we assessed this potential association. METHODS.: PERCH is a case-control study in 7 countries: Bangladesh, The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Thailand, and Zambia. Cases were children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia. Controls were randomly selected from the community. Microbiologically confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia (MCPP) was confirmed by detection of pneumococcus in a relevant normally sterile body fluid. Colonization density was calculated with quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal specimens. RESULTS.: Median colonization density among 56 cases with MCPP (MCPP cases; 17.28 × 106 copies/mL) exceeded that of cases without MCPP (non-MCPP cases; 0.75 × 106) and controls (0.60 × 106) (each P < .001). The optimal density for discriminating MCPP cases from controls using the Youden index was >6.9 log10 copies/mL; overall, the sensitivity was 64% and the specificity 92%, with variable performance by site. The threshold was lower (≥4.4 log10 copies/mL) when MCPP cases were distinguished from controls who received antibiotics before specimen collection. Among the 4035 non-MCPP cases, 500 (12%) had pneumococcal colonization density >6.9 log10 copies/mL; above this cutoff was associated with alveolar consolidation at chest radiography, very severe pneumonia, oxygen saturation <92%, C-reactive protein ≥40 mg/L, and lack of antibiotic pretreatment (all P< .001). CONCLUSIONS.: Pneumococcal colonization density >6.9 log10 copies/mL was strongly associated with MCPP and could be used to improve estimates of pneumococcal pneumonia prevalence in childhood pneumonia studies. Our findings do not support its use for individual diagnosis in a clinical setting.

Colonization Density of the Upper Respiratory Tract as a Predictor of Pneumonia-Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pneumocystis jirovecii.

BACKGROUND.: There is limited information on the association between colonization density of upper respiratory tract colonizers and pathogen-specific pneumonia. We assessed this association for Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pneumocystis jirovecii. METHODS.: In 7 low- and middle-income countries, nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs from children with severe pneumonia and age-frequency matched community controls were tested using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Differences in median colonization density were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Density cutoffs were determined using receiver operating characteristic curves. Cases with a pathogen identified from lung aspirate culture or PCR, pleural fluid culture or PCR, blood culture, and immunofluorescence for P. jirovecii defined microbiologically confirmed cases for the given pathogens. RESULTS.: Higher densities of H. influenzae were observed in both microbiologically confirmed cases and chest radiograph (CXR)-positive cases compared to controls. Staphylococcus aureus and P. jirovecii had higher densities in CXR-positive cases vs controls. A 5.9 log10 copies/mL density cutoff for H. influenzae yielded 86% sensitivity and 77% specificity for detecting microbiologically confirmed cases; however, densities overlapped between cases and controls and positive predictive values were poor (<3%). Informative density cutoffs were not found for S. aureus and M. catarrhalis, and a lack of confirmed case data limited the cutoff identification for P. jirovecii. CONCLUSIONS.: There is evidence for an association between H. influenzae colonization density and H. influenzae-confirmed pneumonia in children; the association may be particularly informative in epidemiologic studies. Colonization densities of M. catarrhalis, S. aureus, and P. jirovecii are unlikely to be of diagnostic value in clinical settings.

Is Higher Viral Load in the Upper Respiratory Tract Associated With Severe Pneumonia? Findings From the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND.: The etiologic inference of identifying a pathogen in the upper respiratory tract (URT) of children with pneumonia is unclear. To determine if viral load could provide evidence of causality of pneumonia, we compared viral load in the URT of children with World Health Organization-defined severe and very severe pneumonia and age-matched community controls. METHODS.: In the 9 developing country sites, nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs from children with and without pneumonia were tested using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for 17 viruses. The association of viral load with case status was evaluated using logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine optimal discriminatory viral load cutoffs. Viral load density distributions were plotted. RESULTS.: The mean viral load was higher in cases than controls for 7 viruses. However, there was substantial overlap in viral load distribution of cases and controls for all viruses. ROC curves to determine the optimal viral load cutoff produced an area under the curve of <0.80 for all viruses, suggesting poor to fair discrimination between cases and controls. Fatal and very severe pneumonia cases did not have higher viral load than less severe cases for most viruses. CONCLUSIONS.: Although we found higher viral loads among pneumonia cases than controls for some viruses, the utility in using viral load of URT specimens to define viral pneumonia was equivocal. Our analysis was limited by lack of a gold standard for viral pneumonia.

Evaluation of Pneumococcal Load in Blood by Polymerase Chain Reaction for the Diagnosis of Pneumococcal Pneumonia in Young Children in the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND.: Detection of pneumococcus by lytA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in blood had poor diagnostic accuracy for diagnosing pneumococcal pneumonia in children in 9 African and Asian sites. We assessed the value of blood lytA quantification in diagnosing pneumococcal pneumonia. METHODS.: The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) case-control study tested whole blood by PCR for pneumococcus in children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with signs of pneumonia and in age-frequency matched community controls. The distribution of load among PCR-positive participants was compared between microbiologically confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia (MCPP) cases, cases confirmed for nonpneumococcal pathogens, nonconfirmed cases, and controls. Receiver operating characteristic analyses determined the "optimal threshold" that distinguished MCPP cases from controls. RESULTS.: Load was available for 290 of 291 cases with pneumococcal PCR detected in blood and 273 of 273 controls. Load was higher in MCPP cases than controls (median, 4.0 × 103 vs 0.19 × 103 copies/mL), but overlapped substantially (range, 0.16-989.9 × 103 copies/mL and 0.01-551.9 × 103 copies/mL, respectively). The proportion with high load (≥2.2 log10 copies/mL) was 62.5% among MCPP cases, 4.3% among nonconfirmed cases, 9.3% among cases confirmed for a nonpneumococcal pathogen, and 3.1% among controls. Pneumococcal load in blood was not associated with respiratory tract illness in controls (P = .32). High blood pneumococcal load was associated with alveolar consolidation on chest radiograph in nonconfirmed cases, and with high (>6.9 log10 copies/mL) nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal load and C-reactive protein ≥40 mg/L (both P < .01) in nonconfirmed cases but not controls. CONCLUSIONS.: Quantitative pneumococcal PCR in blood has limited diagnostic utility for identifying pneumococcal pneumonia in individual children, but may be informative in epidemiological studies.

Association of C-Reactive Protein With Bacterial and Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Pneumonia Among Children Aged <5 Years in the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND.: Lack of a gold standard for identifying bacterial and viral etiologies of pneumonia has limited evaluation of C-reactive protein (CRP) for identifying bacterial pneumonia. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of CRP for identifying bacterial vs respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) multicenter case-control study. METHODS.: We measured serum CRP levels in cases with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia and a subset of community controls. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of elevated CRP for "confirmed" bacterial pneumonia (positive blood culture or positive lung aspirate or pleural fluid culture or polymerase chain reaction [PCR]) compared to "RSV pneumonia" (nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal or induced sputum PCR-positive without confirmed/suspected bacterial pneumonia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to assess the performance of elevated CRP in distinguishing these cases. RESULTS.: Among 601 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative tested controls, 3% had CRP ≥40 mg/L. Among 119 HIV-negative cases with confirmed bacterial pneumonia, 77% had CRP ≥40 mg/L compared with 17% of 556 RSV pneumonia cases. The ROC analysis produced an area under the curve of 0.87, indicating very good discrimination; a cut-point of 37.1 mg/L best discriminated confirmed bacterial pneumonia (sensitivity 77%) from RSV pneumonia (specificity 82%). CRP ≥100 mg/L substantially improved specificity over CRP ≥40 mg/L, though at a loss to sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS.: Elevated CRP was positively associated with confirmed bacterial pneumonia and negatively associated with RSV pneumonia in PERCH. CRP may be useful for distinguishing bacterial from RSV-associated pneumonia, although its role in discriminating against other respiratory viral-associated pneumonia needs further study.

Pertussis-Associated Pneumonia in Infants and Children From Low- and Middle-Income Countries Participating in the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND: Few data exist describing pertussis epidemiology among infants and children in low- and middle-income countries to guide preventive strategies. METHODS: Children 1-59 months of age hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 African and Asian countries and similarly aged community controls were enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study. They underwent a standardized clinical evaluation and provided nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs and induced sputum (cases only) for Bordetella pertussis polymerase chain reaction. Risk factors and pertussis-associated clinical findings were identified. RESULTS: Bordetella pertussis was detected in 53 of 4200 (1.3%) cases and 11 of 5196 (0.2%) controls. In the age stratum 1-5 months, 40 (2.3% of 1721) cases were positive, all from African sites, as were 8 (0.5% of 1617) controls. Pertussis-positive African cases 1-5 months old, compared to controls, were more often human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) uninfected-exposed (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.2), unvaccinated (aOR, 3.7), underweight (aOR, 6.3), and too young to be immunized (aOR, 16.1) (all P ≤ .05). Compared with pertussis-negative African cases in this age group, pertussis-positive cases were younger, more likely to vomit (aOR, 2.6), to cough ≥14 days (aOR, 6.3), to have leukocyte counts >20 000 cells/µL (aOR, 4.6), and to have lymphocyte counts >10 000 cells/µL (aOR, 7.2) (all P ≤ .05). The case fatality ratio of pertussis-infected pneumonia cases 1-5 months of age was 12.5% (95% confidence interval, 4.2%-26.8%; 5/40); pertussis was identified in 3.7% of 137 in-hospital deaths among African cases in this age group. CONCLUSIONS: In the postneonatal period, pertussis causes a small fraction of hospitalized pneumonia cases and deaths; however, case fatality is substantial. The propensity to infect unvaccinated infants and those at risk for insufficient immunity (too young to be vaccinated, premature, HIV-infected/exposed) suggests that the role for maternal vaccination should be considered along with efforts to reduce exposure to risk factors and to optimize childhood pertussis vaccination coverage.

Factors predicting mortality in hospitalised HIV-negative children with lower-chest-wall indrawing pneumonia and implications for management.

INTRODUCTION: In 2012, the World Health Organization revised treatment guidelines for childhood pneumonia with lower chest wall indrawing (LCWI) but no 'danger signs', to recommend home-based treatment. We analysed data from children hospitalized with LCWI pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study to identify sub-groups with high odds of mortality, who might continue to benefit from hospital management but may not be admitted by staff implementing the 2012 guidelines. We compare the proportion of deaths identified using the criteria in the 2012 guidelines, and the proportion of deaths identified using an alternative set of criteria from our model. METHODS: PERCH enrolled a cohort of 2189 HIV-negative children aged 2-59 months who were admitted to hospital with LCWI pneumonia (without obvious cyanosis, inability to feed, vomiting, convulsions, lethargy or head nodding) between 2011-2014 in Kenya, Zambia, South Africa, Mali, The Gambia, Bangladesh, and Thailand. We analysed risk factors for mortality among these cases using predictive logistic regression. Malnutrition was defined as mid-upper-arm circumference <125mm or weight-for-age z-score <-2. RESULTS: Among 2189 cases, 76 (3·6%) died. Mortality was associated with oxygen saturation <92% (aOR 3·33, 1·99-5·99), HIV negative but exposed status (4·59, 1·81-11·7), moderate or severe malnutrition (6·85, 3·22-14·6) and younger age (infants compared to children 12-59 months old, OR 2·03, 95%CI 1·05-3·93). At least one of three risk factors: hypoxaemia, HIV exposure, or malnutrition identified 807 children in this population, 40% of LCWI pneumonia cases and identified 86% of the children who died in hospital (65/76). Risk factors identified using the 2012 WHO treatment guidelines identified 66% of the children who died in hospital (n = 50/76). CONCLUSIONS: Although it focuses on treatment failure in hospital, this study supports the proposal for better risk stratification of children with LCWI pneumonia. Those who have hypoxaemia, any malnutrition or those who were born to HIV positive mothers, experience poorer outcomes than other children with LCWI pneumonia. Consistent identification of these risk factors should be prioritised and children with at least one of these risk factors should not be managed in the community.