Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology.

Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.

Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia.

Increases in temperature as a result of anthropogenically generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to impact key aspects of horticultural production. The potential effect of higher temperatures on fruit and nut trees' ability to break winter dormancy, which requires exposure to winter chilling temperatures, was considered. Three chill models (the 0-7.2°C, Modified Utah, and Dynamic models) were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation at 13 sites across Australia according to localised temperature change related to 1, 2 and 3°C increases in global average temperatures. This methodology avoids reliance on outcomes of future GHG emission pathways, which vary and are likely to change. Regional impacts and rates of decline in chilling differ among the chill models, with the 0-7.2°C model indicating the greatest reduction and the Dynamic model the slowest rate of decline. Elevated and high latitude eastern Australian sites were the least affected while the three more maritime, less elevated Western Australian locations were shown to bear the greatest impact from future warming.

Evaluation of recent trends in Australian pome fruit spring phenology.

Temporal and temperature driven analyses were conducted for eight spring phenology datasets from three Australian pome fruit growing regions ranging from 24 to 43 years in length. This, the first such analysis for Australia, indicated significant temporal change in phenophase timing for only one of the datasets. To determine relationships to temperature, a sequential chill and growth method as well as mean springtime temperatures were used to estimate phenophase timing. Expected advancement of phenophase ranged from 4.1 to 7.7 days per degree Celsius increase in temperature. The sequential chill and growth approach proved superior, with coefficients of determination between 0.49 and 0.85, indicating the inclusion of chill conditions are important for spring phenology modelling. Compared to similar phenological research in the Northern Hemisphere, the changes in response variables were often shallower in Australia, although significance of observed hemispheric differences were not found.

Diurnal Regulation of Leaf Blade Elongation in Rice by CO2 (Is it Related to Sucrose-Phosphate Synthase Activity?).

The relationship between leaf blade elongation rates (LER) and sucrose-phosphate synthase (SPS) activity was investigated at different times during ontogeny of rice (Oryza sativa L. cv Jarrah) grown in flooded soil at either 350 or 700 [mu]L CO2 L-1. High CO2 concentrations increased LER of expanding blades and in vivo activity (Vlimiting) SPS activity of expanded blades during the early vegetative stage (21 d after planting [DAP]), when tiller number was small and growing blades were strong carbohydrate sinks. Despite a constant light environment, there was a distinct diurnal pattern in LER, Vlimiting SPS activity, and concentration of soluble sugars, with an increase in the early part of the light period and a decrease later in the light period. The strong correlation (r = 0.65) between LER and Vlimiting SPS activity over the diurnal cycle indicated that SPS activity played an important role in controlling blade growth. The higher Vlimiting SPS activity at elevated CO2 at 21 DAP was caused by an increase in the activation state of the enzyme rather than an increase in Vmax. Fructose and glucose accumulated to a greater extent than sucrose at high CO2 and may have been utilized for synthesis of cell-wall components, contributing to higher specific leaf weight. By the mid-tillering stage (42 DAP), CO2 enrichment enhanced Vlimiting and Vmax activities of source blades. Nevertheless, LER was depressed by high CO2, probably because tillers were stronger carbohydrate sinks than growing blades.

Influence of Drought Acclimation and CO(2) Enrichment on Osmotic Adjustment and Chlorophyll a Fluorescence of Sunflower during Drought.

Osmotic adjustment occurred during drought in expanded leaves of sunflowers (Helianthus annuus var Hysun 30) which had been continuously exposed to 660 microliters CO(2) per liter or had been previously acclimated to drought. The effect was greatest when the treatments were combined and was negligible in nonacclimated plants grown at 340 microliters CO(2) per liter. The concentrations of ethanol soluble sugars and potassium increased during drought but they did not account for the osmotic adjustment. The delay in the decline in conductance and relative water content and in the loss of structural integrity with increasing drought was dependent on the degree of osmotic adjustment. Where it was greatest, conductance fell from 5.8 millimeters per second on the first day of drought to 1.3 millimeters per second on the fourth day and was at approximately the same level on the eighth day. The relative water content remained constant at 85% for three days and fell to 36% on the sixth day. There was no evidence of leaf desiccation even on the eighth day. In contrast, the conductance of leaves showing minimal adjustment fell rapidly after the first day of drought and was negligible after the fourth, at which time the relative water content was 36%. By the sixth day of drought, areas near the margins of the leaves were desiccating and the plants did not recover upon rewatering. Despite the differences in the rate of change of conductance and relative water content during drought, photosynthetic electron transport activity, inferred from measurements of chlorophyll a fluorescence in vivo and PSII activity of isolated thylakoids, remained functional until desiccation occurred.

Increases in Phosphorus Requirements for CO(2)-Enriched Pine Species.

Pinus radiata D. Don (half-sib families 20010 and 20062) and Pinus caribaea var hondurensis (an open-pollinated family) were grown for 49 weeks at seven levels of phosphorus and at CO(2) concentrations of either 340 or 660 microliters per liter, to establish if the phosphorus requirements differed between the CO(2) concentrations and if mycorrhizal associations were affected. When soil phosphorus availability was low, phosphorus uptake was increased by elevated CO(2). This may have been related to changes in mycorrhizal competition. When the phosphorus concentration in the youngest fully expanded needles was above 600 milligrams per kilogram the shoot weight of all pine families was greater at high CO(2) due to increases in rates of photosynthesis. More dry weight was partitioned to the stems of P. radiata family 20010 and P. caribaea. At foliar phosphorus concentrations above 1000 milligrams per kilogram (P. radiata) and 700 milligrams per kilogram (P. caribaea), growth did not increase at 340 microliters of CO(2) per liter. Soluble sugar levels in the same needles mirrored the growth response, but the starch concentration declined with increasing phosphorus. At 660 microliters of CO(2) per liter, shoot weight and soluble sugar concentrations were still increasing up to a foliar P concentration of 1800 milligrams per kilogram for P. radiata and 1600 milligrams per kilogram for P. caribaea. The starch concentrations did not decline. These results indicate that higher foliar phosphorus concentrations are required to realize the maximum growth potential of pines at elevated CO(2).

Chlorophyll a Fluorescence and Photosynthetic and Growth Responses of Pinus radiata to Phosphorus Deficiency, Drought Stress, and High CO(2).

Needles from phosphorus deficient seedlings of Pinus radiata D. Don grown for 8 weeks at either 330 or 660 microliters CO(2) per liter displayed chlorophyll a fluorescence induction kinetics characteristic of structural changes within the thylakoid chloroplast membrane, i.e. constant yield fluorescence (F(O)) was increased and induced fluorescence ([F(P)-F(I)]/F(O)) was reduced. The effect was greatest in the undroughted plants grown at 660 mul CO(2) L(-1). By week 22 at 330 mul CO(2) L(-1) acclimation to P deficiency had occurred as shown by the similarity in the fluorescence characteristics and maximum rates of photosynthesis of the needles from the two P treatments. However, acclimation did not occur in the plants grown at 660 mul CO(2) L(-1). The light saturated rate of photosynthesis of needles with adequate P was higher at 660 mul CO(2) L(-1) than at 330 mul CO(2) L(-1), whereas photosynthesis of P deficient plants showed no increase when grown at the higher CO(2) concentration. The average growth increase due to CO(2) enrichment was 14% in P deficient plants and 32% when P was adequate. In drought stressed plants grown at 330 mul CO(2) L(-1), there was a reduction in the maximal rate of quenching of fluorescence (R(Q)) after the major peak. Constant yield fluorescence was unaffected but induced fluorescence was lower. These results indicate that electron flow subsequent to photosystem II was affected by drought stress. At 660 mul CO(2) L(-1) this response was eliminated showing that CO(2) enrichment improved the ability of the seedlings to acclimate to drought stress. The average growth increase with CO(2) enrichment was 37% in drought stressed plants and 19% in unstressed plants.