Single-cell proteomics enabled by next-generation sequencing or mass spectrometry.

In the last decade, single-cell RNA sequencing routinely performed on large numbers of single cells has greatly advanced our understanding of the underlying heterogeneity of complex biological systems. Technological advances have also enabled protein measurements, further contributing to the elucidation of cell types and states present in complex tissues. Recently, there have been independent advances in mass spectrometric techniques bringing us one step closer to characterizing single-cell proteomes. Here we discuss the challenges of detecting proteins in single cells by both mass spectrometry and sequencing-based methods. We review the state of the art for these techniques and propose that there is a space for technological advancements and complementary approaches that maximize the advantages of both classes of technologies.

Low energy contact X-ray brachytherapy for treatment of rectal cancer: a health technology appraisal by Health Technology Wales.

AIM: Health Technology Wales sought to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of contact X-ray brachytherapy (CXB) for early-stage rectal cancer. METHODS: Relevant studies were identified through systematic searches of MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and Scopus. A cost-utility model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of CXB in National Health Service Wales, using results of the Organ Preservation in Early Rectal Adenocarcinoma (OPERA) trial. Patient perspectives were obtained through the Papillon Patient Support group and All-Wales Cancer Network. RESULTS: The OPERA randomized controlled trial showed that CXB improved complete response and organ preservation rates compared with external-beam boost for people with T2-3b, N0-1, M0 rectal cancer who are fit for surgery. Managing more of this population non-operatively after CXB was estimated to provide 0.2 quality-adjusted life years at an additional cost of £887 per person. CXB was cost effective compared with external-beam boost at a cost of £4463 per quality-adjusted life year gained. This conclusion did not change in scenario analysis and CXB was cost effective in 91% of probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Patients valued receiving clear information on all available options to support their individual treatment choices. The detrimental impact of a stoma on quality of life led some patients to reject the idea that surgery was their only option. CONCLUSION: This evidence review and cost-utility analysis indicates that CXB is likely to be clinically and cost effective, as part of a watch and wait strategy for adults fit for surgery. Wider access to CXB is supported by patient testimonies.

Thermal treatment affects aptamers' structural profiles.

Using anion-exchange high performance liquid chromatography under non-denaturing conditions, the conformational flexibility of adenosine-, ampicillin-, and quinine aptamers were studied. It was found that all three aptamers showed more than one species when not subjected to thermal anneal. Addition of ligand to untreated aptamers did not significantly change the structural distribution. Upon heating followed by slow cooling, however, all three aptamers were found to exist virtually solely in one structure, presumably the partial hairpin species. It was also found that sonication of quinine aptamer, but not adenosine and ampicillin aptamer, led to its elution off HPLC as virtually a single species. These changes in conformational distribution as a result of thermal anneal or sonication were further confirmed by UV/vis and circular dichroism spectroscopy, as well as melt curves. The findings provided basis for future optimization of aptamer selection and preparation, where thermal anneal can help optimize selection efficiency and improve the consistency in the interpretation of results.

Synchrotron radiation circular dichroism spectroscopy of oligonucleotides at millimolar concentrations.

Circular dichroism spectroscopy of nucleic acids has been traditionally performed at sample concentrations orders of magnitude lower than what occur in biological systems. While recent work from us demonstrated the flexibility of an adjustable sample cell that allowed for successful recording of CD spectra of an 18- and a 21-mer double stranded DNA sequences at around 1 mM, sample concentrations beyond 1 mM present a challenge for standard benchtop CD spectrometers. In the present work, the synchrotron radiation circular dichroism (SRCD) spectra were recorded for d(CG)9 and a mixed 18-mer double stranded DNA at 1, 5, and 10 mM in 100 mM or 4 M NaCl. SRCD of low molecular weight salmon DNA was also measured at a 10 mg/ml concentration. These results represent the first report of CD spectra of DNA samples measured at concentrations comparable to those found in the nucleus. The results suggest that dsDNA maintain very similar structures at concentrations up to tens of mg/ml, as evident by the very similar CD patterns in this concentration range. Furthermore, the SRCD allowed for the recording of CD patterns of DNA in the far UV region, which is not readily accessible by standard benchtop CD spectropolarimeters. These far UV signals appear to be quite characteristic of DNA structures and are sensitive to sample conditions.

Staining Properties of Selected Commercial Fluorescent Dyes Toward B- and Z-DNA.

The properties of six commonly used, commercially available, fluorescent dyes were compared in staining right-handed B-DNA and left-handed Z-DNA. All showed different degree of fluorescence turn-on in the presence of B-DNA, but very little in the presence of Z-DNA. The optimal range of dye-DNA ratios of DNA was determined. While these dyes do not provide a turn-on type probe for Z-DNA, staining between B- and Z-DNA using dyes such as SYBR Green I was shown to be useful in tracking the kinetics of conformational changes between these two forms of DNA. Finally, SYBR Green I showed unique circular dichroism patterns in 4 M NaCl that change in the presence of double stranded DNA, both in the visible and UV range.

A dynamic, spatially periodic, micro-pattern of HES5 underlies neurogenesis in the mouse spinal cord.

Ultradian oscillations of HES Transcription Factors (TFs) at the single-cell level enable cell state transitions. However, the tissue-level organisation of HES5 dynamics in neurogenesis is unknown. Here, we analyse the expression of HES5 ex vivo in the developing mouse ventral spinal cord and identify microclusters of 4-6 cells with positively correlated HES5 level and ultradian dynamics. These microclusters are spatially periodic along the dorsoventral axis and temporally dynamic, alternating between high and low expression with a supra-ultradian persistence time. We show that Notch signalling is required for temporal dynamics but not the spatial periodicity of HES5. Few Neurogenin 2 cells are observed per cluster, irrespective of high or low state, suggesting that the microcluster organisation of HES5 enables the stable selection of differentiating cells. Computational modelling predicts that different cell coupling strengths underlie the HES5 spatial patterns and rate of differentiation, which is consistent with comparison between the motoneuron and interneuron progenitor domains. Our work shows a previously unrecognised spatiotemporal organisation of neurogenesis, emergent at the tissue level from the synthesis of single-cell dynamics.

CRISPR-mediated knock-in in the mouse embryo using long single stranded DNA donors synthesised by biotinylated PCR.

Successful gene knock-in by CRISPR-Cas9 in the mouse zygote requires three components; guideRNA, Cas9 protein and a suitable donor template, which usually comprises homology flanked insert sequence. Recently, long single stranded DNA (lssDNA) donors have emerged as a popular choice of DNA donor, outperforming dsDNA templates in terms of knock-in efficiency for gene tagging and generating conditional alleles. The generation of these donors can be achieved through several methods that may introduce errors in the sequence, result in poor yields, and contain dsDNA contamination. We have developed our own cost-effective lssDNA synthesis methodology that results in high purity, sequence verified, low contamination lssDNA donors. We provide a detailed methodology on the design and generation of such donors for gene tagging experiments and generating conditional alleles.

Staphylococcus aureus second immunoglobulin-binding protein drives atopic dermatitis via IL-33.

BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus is the dominant infective trigger of atopic dermatitis (AD). How this bacterium drives type 2 allergic pathology in the absence of infection in patients with AD is unclear. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify the S aureus-derived virulence factor(s) that initiates the cutaneous type 2-promoting immune response responsible for AD. METHODS: In vitro human keratinocyte cell culture, ex vivo human skin organ explants, and the eczema-prone Nishiki-nezumi Cinnamon/Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology strain mouse were used as model systems to assess type 2-promoting immune responses to S aureus. Identification of the bioactive factor was accomplished using fast protein liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. Bioactivity was confirmed by cloning and expression in an Escherichia coli vector system, and S aureus second immunoglobulin-binding protein (Sbi) mutant strains confirming loss of activity. RESULTS: S aureus was unique among staphylococcal species in its ability to induce the rapid release of constitutive IL-33 from human keratinocytes independent of the Toll-like receptor pathway. Using the eczema-prone Nishiki-nezumi Cinnamon/Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology strain mouse model, we showed that IL-33 was essential for inducing the immune response to S aureus in vivo. By fractionation and candidate testing, we identified Sbi as the predominant staphylococcus-derived virulence factor that directly drives IL-33 release from human keratinocytes. Immunohistology of skin demonstrated that corneodesmosin, a component of corneodesmosomes that form key intercellular adhesive structures in the stratum corneum, was disrupted, resulting in reduction of skin barrier function. CONCLUSIONS: S aureus-derived Sbi is a unique type 2-promoting virulence factor capable of initiating the type 2-promoting cytokine activity underlying AD.

Cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin as an adjunct to insulin for the treatment of type 1 diabetes mellitus in the United Kingdom.

AIMS: To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, as an adjunct to insulin in adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) inadequately controlled by insulin alone in the UK setting. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis was conducted to compare dapagliflozin (5 mg or 10 mg) added to insulin versus insulin monotherapy (standard of care) over a lifetime horizon. Treatment efficacy and safety data were obtained from 52-week results of the DEPICT-1 and DEPICT-2 trials and a network meta-analysis of SGLT2 inhibitors in T1DM. Direct healthcare costs, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated from a UK payer perspective and discounted at 3.5% annually, using the Cardiff T1DM Model. Sensitivity analyses assessed uncertainty in estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: Dapagliflozin 5 mg was associated with gains of 0.23 life-years and 0.42 QALYs, at an additional cost of £4240 per person; corresponding to an ICER of £10 143 versus standard of care. For dapagliflozin 10 mg, incremental life-years, QALYs and costs were 0.24, 0.49 and £2964, respectively; corresponding to an ICER of £6103 versus standard of care. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, ICER estimates fell below £20 000/QALY in 78% to 90% of simulations. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to changes in baseline patient characteristics and treatment effects on glycated haemoglobin; however, ICERs remained below £20 000. CONCLUSIONS: At cost-effectiveness thresholds conventionally applied in the UK, dapagliflozin as an adjunct to insulin appears to be a cost-effective treatment option for people with T1DM inadequately controlled by insulin alone.

Relationship between hypoglycaemia, body mass index and quality of life among patients with type 1 diabetes: Observations from the DEPICT clinical trial programme.

AIMS: To demonstrate the relationships between hypoglycaemia, body mass index (BMI) and quality of life, and to examine the impact of dapagliflozin on patient-reported treatment satisfaction in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), using data from the DEPICT (Dapagliflozin Evaluation in Patients With Inadequately Controlled Type 1 Diabetes) clinical trial programme. METHODS: A two-stage modelling approach, using a linear regression framework, was adopted to evaluate the relationship between hypoglycaemia, BMI and quality of life. Hypoglycaemia fear score (HFS) was modelled as a function of hypoglycaemic events (non-severe documented symptomatic and severe) and, subsequently, quality of life (as measured by the EQ-5D questionnaire) was modelled as a function of HFS and BMI. A linked evidence approach correlated the relationship between treatment, hypoglycaemic events and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), to the relationships captured within the regression models. The proportion of patients achieving increased patient-reported treatment satisfaction, as measured by the Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire (DTSQ) total score, was compared between study arms. RESULTS: Incident severe hypoglycaemia was associated with significantly higher HFS (coefficient estimate [CE] 14.62, P=0.004). The frequency of symptomatic hypoglycaemic events was associated with a significantly higher HFS (log transposed, CE 1.32, P=0.026). Higher HFS and higher BMI were both independently associated with a significantly lower EQ-5D score (HFS: CE -0.0024, P<0.001; BMI: CE -0.0026, P=0.016). Significantly higher proportions of dapagliflozin-treated patients achieved ≥3-point increases in DTSQ total score compared to patients in the placebo group. CONCLUSION: The results of this study demonstrated that increases in hypoglycaemia and BMI were associated with reduced quality of life in people with T1DM. Dapagliflozin-treated patients achieved a reduction in HbA1c whilst avoiding an increase in hypoglycaemic events. The results also showed that treatment with dapagliflozin was associated with an improvement in treatment satisfaction.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes mellitus: A comprehensive economic evaluation using clinical trial and real-world evidence.

AIMS: The economic burden of diabetes is driven by the management of vascular complications. Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have demonstrated reductions in cardiovascular and renal complications, including hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) and renal disease progression, in randomized clinical trials. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the SGLT2i class versus standard of care in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using evidence from both clinical trial and real-world studies. METHODS: An established T2DM model was adapted to use contemporary outcomes evidence from real-world studies and randomized controlled trial evaluations of SGLT2i, and extrapolated over a lifetime for HHF, myocardial infarction, stroke, end-stage renal disease and all-cause mortality. The economic analysis considered adults with T2DM, with and without established cardiovascular disease, and was conducted over a lifetime from the perspective of the health care payer in the United Kingdom, United States and China, discounted at country-specific rates. RESULTS: SGLT2i were consistently associated with increased treatment costs, reduced complication costs and gains in quality-adjusted life years driven by differences in projected life expectancy, cardiovascular and microvascular morbidity and weight loss. SGLT2i were estimated to be cost-saving or cost-effective at relevant thresholds for the overall population in the United Kingdom, United States and China, with cost-effectiveness being the greatest in higher risk subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the need to take into account cost savings from reducing common, morbid and preventable T2DM complications when considering the cost of diabetes medications.

Targeting miR-423-5p Reverses Exercise Training-Induced HCN4 Channel Remodeling and Sinus Bradycardia.

RATIONALE: Downregulation of the pacemaking ion channel, HCN4 (hyperpolarization-activated cyclic nucleotide gated channel 4), and the corresponding ionic current, If, underlies exercise training-induced sinus bradycardia in rodents. If this occurs in humans, it could explain the increased incidence of bradyarrhythmias in veteran athletes, and it will be important to understand the underlying processes. OBJECTIVE: To test the role of HCN4 in the training-induced bradycardia in human athletes and investigate the role of microRNAs (miRs) in the repression of HCN4. METHODS AND RESULTS: As in rodents, the intrinsic heart rate was significantly lower in human athletes than in nonathletes, and in all subjects, the rate-lowering effect of the HCN selective blocker, ivabradine, was significantly correlated with the intrinsic heart rate, consistent with HCN repression in athletes. Next-generation sequencing and quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction showed remodeling of miRs in the sinus node of swim-trained mice. Computational predictions highlighted a prominent role for miR-423-5p. Interaction between miR-423-5p and HCN4 was confirmed by a dose-dependent reduction in HCN4 3'-untranslated region luciferase reporter activity on cotransfection with precursor miR-423-5p (abolished by mutation of predicted recognition elements). Knockdown of miR-423-5p with anti-miR-423-5p reversed training-induced bradycardia via rescue of HCN4 and If. Further experiments showed that in the sinus node of swim-trained mice, upregulation of miR-423-5p (intronic miR) and its host gene, NSRP1, is driven by an upregulation of the transcription factor Nkx2.5. CONCLUSIONS: HCN remodeling likely occurs in human athletes, as well as in rodent models. miR-423-5p contributes to training-induced bradycardia by targeting HCN4. This work presents the first evidence of miR control of HCN4 and heart rate. miR-423-5p could be a therapeutic target for pathological sinus node dysfunction in veteran athletes.

The genomes of four tapeworm species reveal adaptations to parasitism.

Tapeworms (Cestoda) cause neglected diseases that can be fatal and are difficult to treat, owing to inefficient drugs. Here we present an analysis of tapeworm genome sequences using the human-infective species Echinococcus multilocularis, E. granulosus, Taenia solium and the laboratory model Hymenolepis microstoma as examples. The 115- to 141-megabase genomes offer insights into the evolution of parasitism. Synteny is maintained with distantly related blood flukes but we find extreme losses of genes and pathways that are ubiquitous in other animals, including 34 homeobox families and several determinants of stem cell fate. Tapeworms have specialized detoxification pathways, metabolism that is finely tuned to rely on nutrients scavenged from their hosts, and species-specific expansions of non-canonical heat shock proteins and families of known antigens. We identify new potential drug targets, including some on which existing pharmaceuticals may act. The genomes provide a rich resource to underpin the development of urgently needed treatments and control.

Modelling the long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy on renal function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: an exploratory analysis using the ADPKD outcomes model.

BACKGROUND: The short-term efficacy of tolvaptan in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) has been demonstrated across several phase 3 trials, while the ADPKD Outcomes Model (ADPKD-OM) represents a validated approach to predict natural disease progression over a lifetime horizon. This study describes the implementation of a tolvaptan treatment effect within the ADPKD-OM and explores the potential long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy in ADPKD. METHODS: The effect of tolvaptan on ADPKD progression was modelled by applying a constant treatment effect to the rate of renal function decline, consistent with that observed in the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease and Its Outcomes trial (TEMPO 3:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00428948 ). Predictions generated by the ADPKD-OM were compared against aggregated data from a subsequent extension trial (TEMPO 4:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01214421 ) and the Replicating Evidence of Preserved Renal Function an Investigation of Tolvaptan Safety Efficacy in ADPKD trial (REPRISE; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02160145 ). Following validation, an application of the ADPKD-OM sought to estimate the benefit of tolvaptan therapy on time to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), in a range of ADPKD populations. RESULTS: Model validation against TEMPO 4:4 and REPRISE demonstrated the accuracy and generalisability of the tolvaptan treatment effect applied within the ADPKD-OM. In simulated patients matched to the overall TEMPO 3:4 trial population at baseline, tolvaptan therapy was predicted to delay the mean age of ESRD onset by five years, compared to natural disease progression (57 years versus 52 years, respectively). In subgroup and sensitivity analyses, the estimated delay to ESRD was greatest among patients with CKD stage 1 at baseline (6.6 years), compared to CKD 2 and 3 subgroups (4.7 and 2.7 years, respectively); and ADPKD patients in Mayo subclasses 1C-1E. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the potential for tolvaptan therapy to delay time to ESRD, particularly among patients with early-stage CKD and evidence of rapidly progressing disease. Data arising from this study highlight the value to be gained by early intervention and long-term treatment with tolvaptan, which may alleviate the economic and societal costs of providing care to patients who progress to ESRD.

The value of maintaining normokalaemia and enabling RAASi therapy in chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: People with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at an increased risk of developing hyperkalaemia due to their declining kidney function. In addition, these patients are often required to reduce or discontinue guideline-recommended renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) therapy due to increased risk of hyperkalaemia. This original research developed a model to quantify the health and economic benefits of maintaining normokalaemia and enabling optimal RAASi therapy in patients with CKD. METHODS: A patient-level simulation model was designed to fully characterise the natural history of CKD over a lifetime horizon, and predict the associations between serum potassium levels, RAASi use and long-term outcomes based on published literature. The clinical and economic benefits of maintaining sustained potassium levels and therefore avoiding RAASi discontinuation in CKD patients were demonstrated using illustrative, sensitivity and scenario analyses. RESULTS: Internal and external validation exercises confirmed the predictive capability of the model. Sustained potassium management and ongoing RAASi therapy were associated with longer life expectancy (+ 2.36 years), delayed onset of end stage renal disease (+ 5.4 years), quality-adjusted life-year gains (+ 1.02 QALYs), cost savings (£3135) and associated net monetary benefit (£23,446 at £20,000 per QALY gained) compared to an absence of RAASi to prevent hyperkalaemia. CONCLUSION: This model represents a novel approach to predicting the long-term benefits of maintaining normokalaemia and enabling optimal RAASi therapy in patients with CKD, irrespective of the strategy used to achieve this target, which may support decision making in healthcare.

Harm minimization in severe and enduring anorexia nervosa.

For many sufferers of anorexia nervosa, the time course is long, and the prospect of disability and family burden great. This is all too often the case, even with early diagnosis and treatment. The term severe and enduring anorexia nervosa has been applied to these survivors. Yet, a majority of patients do eventually recover and, even where this is not the case, adaptive medical stability and function can be maintained despite alarming dilapidation. Managing the years of illness so as to have the best outcome physically and psychologically, even where full weight recovery does not occur, or has not yet occurred, is the topic of this article. Literature pertaining to harm minimization in chronic, severe, enduring, and long-standing anorexia nervosa was selectively reviewed using an Ovid data base and Google Scholar. The authors' own clinical experience over almost four decades in public and private hospital and community settings has also informed much of what has been written. The authors would like to think that it is possible to do better than the familiar injunction (variously attributed to Hippocrates, Galen, and others) of 'primum non nocere'-although this is a good place to start.

Serum potassium as a predictor of adverse clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease: new risk equations using the UK clinical practice research datalink.

BACKGROUND: To address a current paucity of European data, this study developed equations to predict risks of mortality, major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and renin angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) discontinuation using time-varying serum potassium and other covariates, in a UK cohort of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study of adult CKD patients listed on the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, with a first record of CKD (stage 3a-5, pre-dialysis) between 2006 and 2015. Patients with heart failure at index were excluded. Risk equations developed using Poisson Generalized Estimating Equations were utilised to estimate adjusted incident rate ratios (IRRs) between serum potassium and adverse outcomes, and identify other predictive clinical factors. RESULTS: Among 191,964 eligible CKD patients, 86,691 (45.16%), 30,629 (15.96%) and 9440 (4.92%) experienced at least one hyperkalaemia episode, when defined using serum potassium concentrations 5.0-< 5.5 mmol/L, 5.5-< 6.0 mmol/L and ≥ 6.0 mmol/L, respectively. Relative to the reference category (4.5 to < 5.0 mmol/L), adjusted IRRs for mortality and MACE exhibited U-shaped associations with serum potassium, with age being the most important predictor of both outcomes (P < 0.0001). A J-shaped association between serum potassium and RAASi discontinuation was observed; estimated glomerular filtration rate was most predictive of RAASi discontinuation (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Hyperkalaemia was associated with increased mortality and RAASi discontinuation risk. These risk equations represent a valuable tool to predict clinical outcomes among CKD patients; and identify those likely to benefit from strategies that treat hyperkalaemia, prevent RAASi discontinuation, and effectively manage serum potassium levels.

pfk13-Independent Treatment Failure in Four Imported Cases of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Treated with Artemether-Lumefantrine in the United Kingdom.

We present case histories of four patients treated with artemether-lumefantrine for falciparum malaria in UK hospitals in 2015 to 2016. Each subsequently presented with recurrent symptoms and Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia within 6 weeks of treatment with no intervening travel to countries where malaria is endemic. Parasite isolates, all of African origin, harbored variants at some candidate resistance loci. No evidence of pfk13-mediated artemisinin resistance was found. Vigilance for signs of unsatisfactory antimalarial efficacy among imported cases of malaria is recommended.

An alternative approach to modelling HbA1c trajectories in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

AIMS: Time-dependent HbA1c trajectories in health economic models of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are typically informed by the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). However, this approach may not accurately predict HbA1c progression in patients who do not conform to the demographic profile of the original UKPDS cohort. This study aimed to develop an alternative mathematical model (MM) to simulate HbA1c progression in T2DM. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic literature review identified studies, published between 2005 and 2015, that reported HbA1c in adult T2DM patients over a minimum duration of 18 months. Pooled data from eligible studies were used to develop an alternative MM equation for HbA1c progression, which was then contrasted with the UKPDS 68 progression equation in illustrative scenarios. RESULTS: A total of 68 studies were eligible for data extraction (mean follow-up time 4.1 years). HbA1c progression was highly heterogeneous across studies, varying with baseline HbA1c, treatment group and patient age. The MM equation was fitted with parameters for mean baseline HbA1c (8.3%), initial change in HbA1c (-0.62%) and upper quartile of maximum observed HbA1c (9.3%). Differences in HbA1c trajectories between the MM and UKPDS approaches altered the timing of therapy escalation in illustrative scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The MM represents an alternative approach to simulate HbA1c trajectories in T2DM models, as UKPDS data may not adequately reflect the heterogeneity of HbA1c profiles observed in clinical studies. However, the choice of approach should ultimately be determined by the characteristics of individual patients under consideration and the clinical face validity of the modelled trajectories.