Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Polymorphisms in transcription factor binding sites and enhancer regions and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma risk.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are a powerful tool for detecting variants associated with complex traits and can help risk stratification and prevention strategies against pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, the strict significance threshold commonly used makes it likely that many true risk loci are missed. Functional annotation of GWAS polymorphisms is a proven strategy to identify additional risk loci. We aimed to investigate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in regulatory regions [transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) and enhancers] that could change the expression profile of multiple genes they act upon and thereby modify PDAC risk. We analyzed a total of 12,636 PDAC cases and 43,443 controls from PanScan/PanC4 and the East Asian GWAS (discovery populations), and the PANDoRA consortium (replication population). We identified four associations that reached study-wide statistical significance in the overall meta-analysis: rs2472632(A) (enhancer variant, OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.06,1.13, p = 5.5 × 10-8), rs17358295(G) (enhancer variant, OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.10,1.22, p = 6.1 × 10-7), rs2232079(T) (TFBS variant, OR 0.88, 95%CI 0.83,0.93, p = 6.4 × 10-6) and rs10025845(A) (TFBS variant, OR 1.88, 95%CI 1.50,1.12, p = 1.32 × 10-5). The SNP with the most significant association, rs2472632, is located in an enhancer predicted to target the coiled-coil domain containing 34 oncogene. Our results provide new insights into genetic risk factors for PDAC by a focused analysis of polymorphisms in regulatory regions and demonstrating the usefulness of functional prioritization to identify loci associated with PDAC risk.

Mitochondrial DNA abundance in blood is associated with Alzheimer's disease- and dementia-risk.

The mitochondrial cascade hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) has been portrayed through molecular, cellular, and animal studies; however large epidemiological studies are lacking. This study aimed to explore the association of mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNAcn), a marker representative of mtDNA abundance per cell, with risk of incident all-cause dementia, AD, and vascular dementia diagnosis within 17 years and dementia-related blood biomarkers (P-tau181, GFAP, and NfL). Additionally, sex-stratified analyses were completed. In this German population-based cohort study (ESTHER), 9940 participants aged 50-75 years were enrolled by general practitioners and followed for 17 years. Participants were included in this study if information on dementia status and blood-based mtDNAcn measured via real-time polymerase chain reaction were available. In a nested case-control approach, a subsample of participants additionally had measurements of P-tau181, GFAP, and NfL in blood samples taken at baseline. Of 4913 participants eligible for analyses, 386 were diagnosed with incident all-cause dementia, including 130 AD and 143 vascular dementia cases, while 4527 participants remained without dementia diagnosis within 17 years. Participants with low mtDNAcn (lowest 10%) experienced 45% and 65% percent increased risk of incident all-cause dementia and AD after adjusting for age and sex (all-cause dementia: HRadj, 95%CI:1.45, 1.08-1.94; AD: HRadj, 95%CI: 1.65, 1.01-2.68). MtDNAcn was not associated to vascular dementia diagnosis and was more strongly associated with all-cause dementia among women. In the nested case-control study (n = 790), mtDNAcn was not significantly associated with the dementia-related blood biomarkers (P-tau181, GFAP, and NfL) levels in blood from baseline before dementia diagnosis. This study provides novel epidemiological evidence connecting mtDNA abundance, measured via mtDNAcn, to incident dementia and AD at the population-based level. Reduced mitochondrial abundance may play a role in pathogenesis, especially among women.

Circulating white blood cell traits and colorectal cancer risk: A Mendelian randomisation study.

Observational studies have suggested a protective role for eosinophils in colorectal cancer (CRC) development and implicated neutrophils, but the causal relationships remain unclear. Here, we aimed to estimate the causal effect of circulating white blood cell (WBC) counts (N = ~550 000) for basophils, eosinophils, monocytes, lymphocytes and neutrophils on CRC risk (N = 52 775 cases and 45 940 controls) using Mendelian randomisation (MR). For comparison, we also examined this relationship using individual-level data from UK Biobank (4043 incident CRC cases and 332 773 controls) in a longitudinal cohort analysis. The inverse-variance weighted (IVW) MR analysis suggested a protective effect of increased basophil count and eosinophil count on CRC risk [OR per 1-SD increase: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.78-0.99, P = .04; OR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88-0.98, P = .01]. The protective effect of eosinophils remained [OR per 1-SD increase: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.80-0.97, P = .01] following adjustments for all other WBC subtypes, to account for genetic correlation between the traits, using multivariable MR. A protective effect of increased lymphocyte count on CRC risk was also found [OR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.76-0.93, P = 6.70e-4] following adjustment. Consistent with MR results, a protective effect for eosinophils in the cohort analysis in the fully adjusted model [RR per 1-SD increase: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, P = .02] and following adjustment for the other WBC subtypes [RR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, P = .001] was observed. Our study implicates peripheral blood immune cells, in particular eosinophils and lymphocytes, in CRC development, highlighting a need for mechanistic studies to interrogate these relationships.

Circulating tryptophan-kynurenine pathway metabolites are associated with all-cause mortality among patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer.

Alterations within the tryptophan-kynurenine metabolic pathway have been linked to the etiology of colorectal cancer (CRC), but the relevance of this pathway for prognostic outcomes in CRC patients needs further elucidation. Therefore, we investigated associations between circulating concentrations of tryptophan-kynurenine pathway metabolites and all-cause mortality among CRC patients. This study utilizes data from 2102 stage I-III CRC patients participating in six prospective cohorts involved in the international FOCUS Consortium. Preoperative circulating concentrations of tryptophan, kynurenine, kynurenic acid (KA), 3-hydroxykynurenine (HK), xanthurenic acid (XA), 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid (HAA), anthranilic acid (AA), picolinic acid (PA), and quinolinic acid (QA) were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we examined associations of above-mentioned metabolites with all-cause mortality, adjusted for potential confounders. During a median follow-up of 3.2 years (interquartile range: 2.2-4.9), 290 patients (13.8%) deceased. Higher blood concentrations of tryptophan, XA, and PA were associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (per doubling in concentrations: tryptophan: HR = 0.56; 95%CI:0.41,0.76, XA: HR = 0.74; 95%CI:0.64,0.85, PA: HR = 0.76; 95%CI:0.64,0.92), while higher concentrations of HK and QA were associated with an increased risk of death (per doubling in concentrations: HK: HR = 1.80; 95%CI:1.47,2.21, QA: HR = 1.31; 95%CI:1.05,1.63). A higher kynurenine-to-tryptophan ratio, a marker of cell-mediated immune activation, was associated with an increased risk of death (per doubling: HR = 2.07; 95%CI:1.52,2.83). In conclusion, tryptophan-kynurenine pathway metabolites may be prognostic markers of survival in CRC patients.

Potential association between PSCA rs2976395 functional variant and pancreatic cancer risk.

Correlated regions of systemic interindividual variation (CoRSIV) represent a small proportion of the human genome showing DNA methylation patterns that are the same in all human tissues, are different among individuals, and are partially regulated by genetic variants in cis. In this study we aimed at investigating single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within CoRSIVs and their involvement with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk. We analyzed 29,099 CoRSIV-SNPs and 133,615 CoRSIV-mQTLs in 14,394 cases and 247,022 controls of European and Asian descent. We observed that the A allele of the rs2976395 SNP was associated with increased PDAC risk in Europeans (p = 2.81 × 10-5). This SNP lies in the prostate stem cell antigen gene and is in perfect linkage disequilibrium with a variant (rs2294008) that has been reported to be associated with risk of many other cancer types. The A allele is associated with the DNA methylation level of the gene according to the PanCan-meQTL database and with overexpression according to QTLbase. The expression of the gene has been observed to be deregulated in many tumors of the gastrointestinal tract including pancreatic cancer; however, functional studies are needed to elucidate the function relevance of the association.

Polymorphisms within autophagy-related genes as susceptibility biomarkers for pancreatic cancer: A meta-analysis of three large European cohorts and functional characterization.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal cancers with patients having unresectable or metastatic disease at diagnosis, with poor prognosis and very short survival. Given that genetic variation within autophagy-related genes influences autophagic flux and susceptibility to solid cancers, we decided to investigate whether 55,583 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 234 autophagy-related genes could influence the risk of developing PDAC in three large independent cohorts of European ancestry including 12,754 PDAC cases and 324,926 controls. The meta-analysis of these populations identified, for the first time, the association of the BIDrs9604789 variant with an increased risk of developing the disease (ORMeta = 1.31, p = 9.67 × 10-6). We also confirmed the association of TP63rs1515496 and TP63rs35389543 variants with PDAC risk (OR = 0.89, p = 6.27 × 10-8 and OR = 1.16, p = 2.74 × 10-5). Although it is known that BID induces autophagy and TP63 promotes cell growth, cell motility and invasion, we also found that carriers of the TP63rs1515496G allele had increased numbers of FOXP3+ Helios+ T regulatory cells and CD45RA+ T regulatory cells (p = 7.67 × 10-4 and p = 1.56 × 10-3), but also decreased levels of CD4+ T regulatory cells (p = 7.86 × 10-4). These results were in agreement with research suggesting that the TP63rs1515496 variant alters binding sites for FOXA1 and CTCF, which are transcription factors involved in modulating specific subsets of regulatory T cells. In conclusion, this study identifies BID as new susceptibility locus for PDAC and confirms previous studies suggesting that the TP63 gene is involved in the development of PDAC. This study also suggests new pathogenic mechanisms of the TP63 locus in PDAC.

Cancer-specific risk prediction with a serum microRNA signature.

We recently derived and validated a serum-based microRNA risk score (miR-score) that predicted colorectal cancer (CRC) occurrence with very high accuracy within 14 years of follow-up in a population-based cohort study from Germany (ESTHER cohort). Here, we aimed to evaluate associations of the CRC-specific miR-score with the risk of developing other common cancers, including female breast cancer (BC), lung cancer (LC), and prostate cancer (PC), in the ESTHER cohort. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) were profiled by quantitative real-time PCR in serum samples collected at baseline from randomly selected incident cases of BC (n = 90), LC (n = 88), and PC (n = 93) and participants without diagnosis of CRC, LC, BC, or PC (controls, n = 181) until the end of the 17-year follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations of the miR-score with BC, LC, and PC incidence. The miR-score showed strong inverse associations with BC and LC incidence [odds ratio per 1 standard deviation increase: 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.82), p = 0.0017, and 0.64 (95% CI 0.48-0.84),p = 0.0015, respectively]. Associations with PC were not statistically significant but pointed in the positive direction. Our study highlights the potential of serum-based miRNA biomarkers for cancer-specific risk prediction. Further large cohort studies aiming to investigate, validate, and optimize the use of circulating miRNA signatures for cancer risk assessment are warranted.

Genome-wide association study of mitochondrial copy number.

Mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNAcn) variation has been associated with increased risk of several human diseases in epidemiological studies. The quantification of mtDNAcn performed with real-time PCR is currently considered the de facto standard among several techniques. However, the heterogeneity of the laboratory methods (DNA extraction, storage, processing) used could give rise to results that are difficult to compare and reproduce across different studies. Several lines of evidence suggest that mtDNAcn is influenced by nuclear and mitochondrial genetic variability, however this relation is largely unexplored. The aim of this work was to elucidate the genetic basis of mtDNAcn variation. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of mtDNAcn in 6836 subjects from the ESTHER prospective cohort, and included, as replication set, the summary statistics of a GWAS that used 295 150 participants from the UK Biobank. We observed two novel associations with mtDNAcn variation on chromosome 19 (rs117176661), and 12 (rs7136238) that reached statistical significance at the genome-wide level. A polygenic score that we called mitoscore including all known single nucleotide polymorphisms explained 1.11% of the variation of mtDNAcn (p = 5.93 × 10-7). In conclusion, we performed a GWAS on mtDNAcn, adding to the evidence of the genetic background of this trait.

Diabetes mellitus in long-term survivors with colorectal, breast, or prostate cancer: Prevalence and prognosis. A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cancer are at increased risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). Previous studies on the prevalence and prognostic impact of DM in cancer survivors were limited by small sample sizes or short follow-up times. We aimed to compare the patient-reported prevalence of DM in long-term cancer survivors (LTCS), who survived 5 years or more after cancer diagnosis, with that in cancer-free controls, and to estimate the mortality risk among LTCS according to DM status. METHODS: Our population-based cohort comprised 6952 LTCS diagnosed with breast, colorectal, or prostate cancer between 1994 and 2004, recruited in 2008-2011 (baseline), and followed until 2019. A total of 1828 cancer-free individuals served as controls. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the prevalence of DM in LTCS and controls, and according to covariates at baseline. Mortality among LTCS according to DM was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: A total of 962 (13.8%) LTCS at baseline reported DM. Prevalence of DM in LTCS was not higher than in cancer-free controls, both at baseline (odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.66-0.97) and at follow-up (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.67-1.04). Prevalence of DM in LTCS was associated with cancer site, older age, lower education, higher socioeconomic deprivation, higher body mass index, physical inactivity, other comorbidities, and poorer prognosis (adjusted hazard ratio [all-cause mortality] = 1.29; 95% CI, 1.15-1.44). CONCLUSION: DM in LTCS is prevalent, but not higher than in cancer-free population controls. Cancer survivors with concurrent DM are at a potentially higher risk of death. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Cancer and diabetes mellitus (DM) are two serious threats to global health. In our study, prevalence of DM in long-term cancer survivors who survived 5 years or more after cancer diagnosis was not higher than in cancer-free controls. This should not be interpreted as an indication of a lower risk of DM in cancer survivors. Rather, it highlights the potentially poor prognosis in diabetic cancer survivors. Therefore, keeping a continuous satisfactory DM and hyperglycemia management is essential during long-term cancer survivorship.

Prognostic value of post-operative iron biomarkers in colorectal cancer: population-based patient cohort.

BACKGROUND: Post-operative anaemia is linked to iron deficiency. We investigated the prognostic value of post-operative iron biomarkers in colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: Ferritin, transferrin, iron, and transferrin saturation (TS%) were measured from blood collected at a single time-point post-surgery in 2769 CRC patients. Associations between iron biomarkers with cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed using Cox regression with hazard ratios (HR), stratified by post-operative time of blood collection (<1-month/≥1-month). RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 9.5 years, 52.6% of patients had died. For iron biomarkers assessed <1-month post-surgery, higher compared to normal TS% was associated with shorter CSS (HR [95% CI] = 2.36 [1.25-4.46]), and higher iron levels with better OS (upper vs. median tertile: HR [95% CI] = 0.79 [0.65-0.97]). When assessed ≥1-month post-surgery, elevated ferritin was associated with poor CSS (high vs. normal: HR [95% CI] = 1.44 [1.10-1.87]), and low TS% with worse CSS (low vs. normal: HR [95% CI] = 1.60 [1.24-2.06]). Similar but weaker associations were observed for OS. CONCLUSION: Monitoring of serum ferritin and TS% beyond 1-month post-surgery may be relevant for risk stratification of patients with operable CRC. Future studies should validate our findings.

Genetic risk impacts the association of menopausal hormone therapy with colorectal cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT), a common treatment to relieve symptoms of menopause, is associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). To inform CRC risk prediction and MHT risk-benefit assessment, we aimed to evaluate the joint association of a polygenic risk score (PRS) for CRC and MHT on CRC risk. METHODS: We used data from 28,486 postmenopausal women (11,519 cases and 16,967 controls) of European descent. A PRS based on 141 CRC-associated genetic variants was modeled as a categorical variable in quartiles. Multiplicative interaction between PRS and MHT use was evaluated using logistic regression. Additive interaction was measured using the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). 30-year cumulative risks of CRC for 50-year-old women according to MHT use and PRS were calculated. RESULTS: The reduction in odds ratios by MHT use was larger in women within the highest quartile of PRS compared to that in women within the lowest quartile of PRS (p-value = 2.7 × 10-8). At the highest quartile of PRS, the 30-year CRC risk was statistically significantly lower for women taking any MHT than for women not taking any MHT, 3.7% (3.3%-4.0%) vs 6.1% (5.7%-6.5%) (difference 2.4%, P-value = 1.83 × 10-14); these differences were also statistically significant but smaller in magnitude in the lowest PRS quartile, 1.6% (1.4%-1.8%) vs 2.2% (1.9%-2.4%) (difference 0.6%, P-value = 1.01 × 10-3), indicating 4 times greater reduction in absolute risk associated with any MHT use in the highest compared to the lowest quartile of genetic CRC risk. CONCLUSIONS: MHT use has a greater impact on the reduction of CRC risk for women at higher genetic risk. These findings have implications for the development of risk prediction models for CRC and potentially for the consideration of genetic information in the risk-benefit assessment of MHT use.

Functional annotation of the 2q35 breast cancer risk locus implicates a structural variant in influencing activity of a long-range enhancer element.

A combination of genetic and functional approaches has identified three independent breast cancer risk loci at 2q35. A recent fine-scale mapping analysis to refine these associations resulted in 1 (signal 1), 5 (signal 2), and 42 (signal 3) credible causal variants at these loci. We used publicly available in silico DNase I and ChIP-seq data with in vitro reporter gene and CRISPR assays to annotate signals 2 and 3. We identified putative regulatory elements that enhanced cell-type-specific transcription from the IGFBP5 promoter at both signals (30- to 40-fold increased expression by the putative regulatory element at signal 2, 2- to 3-fold by the putative regulatory element at signal 3). We further identified one of the five credible causal variants at signal 2, a 1.4 kb deletion (esv3594306), as the likely causal variant; the deletion allele of this variant was associated with an average additional increase in IGFBP5 expression of 1.3-fold (MCF-7) and 2.2-fold (T-47D). We propose a model in which the deletion allele of esv3594306 juxtaposes two transcription factor binding regions (annotated by estrogen receptor alpha ChIP-seq peaks) to generate a single extended regulatory element. This regulatory element increases cell-type-specific expression of the tumor suppressor gene IGFBP5 and, thereby, reduces risk of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (odds ratio = 0.77, 95% CI 0.74-0.81, p = 3.1 × 10-31).

Excess Weight, Polygenic Risk Score, and Findings of Colorectal Neoplasms at Screening Colonoscopy.

INTRODUCTION: Excess weight is an established risk factor of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, evidence is lacking on how its impact varies by polygenic risk at different stages of colorectal carcinogenesis. METHODS: We assessed the individual and joint associations of body mass index (BMI) and polygenic risk scores (PRSs) with findings of colorectal neoplasms among 4,784 participants of screening colonoscopy. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for excess weight derived by multiple logistic regression were converted to genetic risk equivalents (GREs) to quantify the impact of excess weight compared with genetic predisposition. RESULTS: Overweight and obesity (BMI 25-<30 and ≥30 kg/m 2 ) were associated with increased risk of any colorectal neoplasm (aOR [95% confidence interval, CI] 1.26 [1.09-1.45] and 1.47 [1.24-1.75]). Obesity was associated with increased risk of advanced colorectal neoplasm (aOR [95% CI] 1.46 [1.16-1.84]). Dose-response relationships were seen for the PRS (stronger for advanced neoplasms than any neoplasms), with no interaction with BMI, suggesting multiplicative effects of both factors. Obese participants with a PRS in the highest tertile had a 2.3-fold (95% CI 1.7-3.1) and 2.9-fold (95% CI 1.9-4.3) increased risk of any colorectal neoplasm and advanced colorectal neoplasm, respectively. The aOR of obesity translated into a GRE of 38, meaning that its impact was estimated to be equivalent to the risk caused by 38 percentiles higher PRS for colorectal neoplasm. DISCUSSION: Excess weight and polygenic risk are associated with increased risk of colorectal neoplasms in a multiplicative manner. Maintaining normal weight is estimated to have an equivalent effect as having 38 percentiles lower PRS.

Allometric versus traditional body-shape indices and risk of colorectal cancer: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Traditional body-shape indices such as Waist Circumference (WC), Hip Circumference (HC), and Waist-to-Hip Ratio (WHR) are associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but are correlated with Body Mass Index (BMI), and adjustment for BMI introduces a strong correlation with height. Thus, new allometric indices have been developed, namely A Body Shape Index (ABSI), Hip Index (HI), and Waist-to-Hip Index (WHI), which are uncorrelated with weight and height; these have also been associated with CRC risk in observational studies, but information from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies is missing. METHODS: We used two-sample MR to examine potential causal cancer site- and sex-specific associations of the genetically-predicted allometric body-shape indices with CRC risk, and compared them with BMI-adjusted traditional body-shape indices, and BMI. Data were obtained from UK Biobank and the GIANT consortium, and from GECCO, CORECT and CCFR consortia. RESULTS: WHI was positively associated with CRC in men (OR per SD: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03-1.39) and in women (1.15, 1.06-1.24), and similarly for colon and rectal cancer. ABSI was positively associated with colon and rectal cancer in men (1.27, 1.03-1.57; and 1.40, 1.10-1.77, respectively), and with colon cancer in women (1.20, 1.07-1.35). There was little evidence for association between HI and colon or rectal cancer. The BMI-adjusted WHR and HC showed similar associations to WHI and HI, whereas WC showed similar associations to ABSI only in women. CONCLUSIONS: This large MR study provides strong evidence for a potential causal positive association of the allometric indices ABSI and WHI with CRC in both sexes, thus establishing the association between abdominal fat and CRC without the limitations of the traditional waist size indices and independently of BMI. Among the BMI-adjusted traditional indices, WHR and HC provided equivalent associations with WHI and HI, while differences were observed between WC and ABSI.

Characterization of additive gene-environment interactions for colorectal cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common, fatal cancer. Identifying subgroups who may benefit more from intervention is of critical public health importance. Previous studies have assessed multiplicative interaction between genetic risk scores and environmental factors, but few have assessed additive interaction, the relevant public health measure. METHODS: Using resources from colorectal cancer consortia including 45,247 CRC cases and 52,671 controls, we assessed multiplicative and additive interaction (relative excess risk due to interaction, RERI) using logistic regression between 13 harmonized environmental factors and genetic risk score including 141 variants associated with CRC risk. RESULTS: There was no evidence of multiplicative interaction between environmental factors and genetic risk score. There was additive interaction where, for individuals with high genetic susceptibility, either heavy drinking [RERI = 0.24, 95% confidence interval, CI, (0.13, 0.36)], ever smoking [0.11 (0.05, 0.16)], high BMI [female 0.09 (0.05, 0.13), male 0.10 (0.05, 0.14)], or high red meat intake [highest versus lowest quartile 0.18 (0.09, 0.27)] was associated with excess CRC risk greater than that for individuals with average genetic susceptibility. Conversely, we estimate those with high genetic susceptibility may benefit more from reducing CRC risk with aspirin/NSAID use [-0.16 (-0.20, -0.11)] or higher intake of fruit, fiber, or calcium [highest quartile versus lowest quartile -0.12 (-0.18, -0.050); -0.16 (-0.23, -0.09); -0.11 (-0.18, -0.05), respectively] than those with average genetic susceptibility. CONCLUSIONS: Additive interaction is important to assess for identifying subgroups who may benefit from intervention. The subgroups identified in this study may help inform precision CRC prevention.

Automated curation of large-scale cancer histopathology image datasets using deep learning.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence (AI) has numerous applications in pathology, supporting diagnosis and prognostication in cancer. However, most AI models are trained on highly selected data, typically one tissue slide per patient. In reality, especially for large surgical resection specimens, dozens of slides can be available for each patient. Manually sorting and labelling whole-slide images (WSIs) is a very time-consuming process, hindering the direct application of AI on the collected tissue samples from large cohorts. In this study we addressed this issue by developing a deep-learning (DL)-based method for automatic curation of large pathology datasets with several slides per patient. METHODS: We collected multiple large multicentric datasets of colorectal cancer histopathological slides from the United Kingdom (FOXTROT, N = 21,384 slides; CR07, N = 7985 slides) and Germany (DACHS, N = 3606 slides). These datasets contained multiple types of tissue slides, including bowel resection specimens, endoscopic biopsies, lymph node resections, immunohistochemistry-stained slides, and tissue microarrays. We developed, trained, and tested a deep convolutional neural network model to predict the type of slide from the slide overview (thumbnail) image. The primary statistical endpoint was the macro-averaged area under the receiver operating curve (AUROCs) for detection of the type of slide. RESULTS: In the primary dataset (FOXTROT), with an AUROC of 0.995 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.994-0.996] the algorithm achieved a high classification performance and was able to accurately predict the type of slide from the thumbnail image alone. In the two external test cohorts (CR07, DACHS) AUROCs of 0.982 [95% CI: 0.979-0.985] and 0.875 [95% CI: 0.864-0.887] were observed, which indicates the generalizability of the trained model on unseen datasets. With a confidence threshold of 0.95, the model reached an accuracy of 94.6% (7331 classified cases) in CR07 and 85.1% (2752 classified cases) for the DACHS cohort. CONCLUSION: Our findings show that using the low-resolution thumbnail image is sufficient to accurately classify the type of slide in digital pathology. This can support researchers to make the vast resource of existing pathology archives accessible to modern AI models with only minimal manual annotations.

Contributions of early detection and cancer prevention to colorectal cancer mortality reduction by screening colonoscopy: a validated modeling study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Screening colonoscopy, recommended every 10 years, reduces mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC) by early detection of prevalent but undiagnosed CRC, as well as by removal of precursor lesions. The aim of this study was to assess the relative contribution of both components to total CRC mortality reduction over time. METHODS: Using a validated multistate Markov model, we simulated hypothetical cohorts of 100,000 individuals aged 55 to 64 years with and without screening at baseline. Main outcomes included proportions of prevented CRC deaths arising from (asymptomatic) CRC already present at baseline and from newly developed CRC during 15 years of follow-up, and mortality rate ratios of screened versus nonscreened groups over time. RESULTS: Early detection of prevalent cases accounted for 52%, 30%, and 18% of deaths prevented by screening colonoscopy within 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. Relative reduction of mortality was estimated to be much larger for mortality from incident cancers than for mortality from cancers that were already present and detected early at screening endoscopy and for total CRC mortality (ie, 88% versus 67% and 79%, respectively, within 10 years from screening). CONCLUSIONS: Reduction of CRC mortality mainly arises from early detection of prevalent cancers during the early years after screening colonoscopy, but prevention of incident cases accounts for the majority of prevented deaths in the longer run. Prevention of incident cases leads to sustained strong reduction of CRC mortality, possibly warranting an extension of screening intervals.

Childhood and adolescence factors and multiple sclerosis: results from the German National Cohort (NAKO).

BACKGROUND: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) represents the most common inflammatory neurological disease causing disability in early adulthood. Childhood and adolescence factors might be of relevance in the development of MS. We aimed to investigate the association between various factors (e.g., prematurity, breastfeeding, daycare attendance, weight history) and MS risk. METHODS: Data from the baseline assessment of the German National Cohort (NAKO) were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between childhood and adolescence factors and risk of MS. Analyses stratified by sex were conducted. RESULTS: Among a total of 204,273 participants, 858 reported an MS diagnosis. Male sex was associated with a decreased MS risk (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.41-0.56), while overweight (HR 2.03; 95% CI 1.41-2.94) and obesity (HR 1.89; 95% CI 1.02-3.48) at 18 years of age compared to normal weight were associated with increased MS risk. Having been breastfed for ≤ 4 months was associated with a decreased MS risk in men (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.40-0.86) compared to no breastfeeding. No association with MS risk was observed for the remaining factors. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from overweight and obesity at the age of 18 years, we did not observe considerable associations with MS risk. The proportion of cases that can be explained by childhood and adolescence factors examined in this study was low. Further investigations of the association between the onset of overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence and its interaction with physical activity and MS risk seem worthwhile.

Reevaluating the fraction of cancer attributable to excess weight: overcoming the hidden impact of prediagnostic weight loss.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the magnitude of the potential underestimation of the proportion of cancer cases attributable to excess weight, known as population attributable fraction (PAF), due to potential bias from prediagnostic weight loss already present at baseline of cohort studies and to overcome it as much as possible. METHODS: Data from the UK Biobank cohort participants aged 40-69 without prior cancer diagnosis were analyzed. We assessed the magnitude of associations of excess weight with the incidence of obesity-related cancers combined, and separately for gastrointestinal (GI) and other cancers. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI), and PAFs for excess weight at baseline were estimated for various periods of time after weight measurements. FINDINGS: Of 458,660 participants, 20,218 individuals developed obesity-related cancers during a median 11.0-year follow-up, comprising 8,460 GI, and 11,765 non-GI cancers. PAFs were much higher for cancers occurring more than four years after recruitment than for cancers occurring within the initial four years: 17.7% versus 7.2%, 21.4% versus 11.7% for GI, non-GI and all obesity-related cancers combined, respectively. With respect to total cancer (including cancers with no established relationship with excess weight), PAFs were estimated as 5.1% and 8.8% for the 0-4 and 4-14-year periods of follow-up. CONCLUSION: The proportion of cancers attributable to excess weight is likely substantially larger than previously estimated based on cohort studies with short follow-up time or no or only limited exclusion of the early years of follow-up from the analyses.