Community coalition efforts to prevent childhood obesity: two-year results of the Shape Up Under 5 study.

BACKGROUND: Cross-sector collaborations and coalitions are promising approaches for childhood obesity prevention, yet there is little empirical evidence about how they affect change. We hypothesized that changes in knowledge of, and engagement with, childhood obesity prevention among coalition members can diffuse through social networks to influence policies, systems, and environments. METHODS: We studied a community coalition (N = 16, Shape Up Under 5 "SUU5 Committee") focused on early childhood obesity prevention in Somerville, MA from 2015-17. Knowledge, engagement, and social network data were collected from Committee members and their network contacts (n = 193) at five timepoints over two years. Policy, systems, and environment data were collected from the SUU5 Committee. Data were collected via the validated COMPACT Stakeholder-driven Community Diffusion survey and analyzed using regression models and social network analysis. RESULTS: Over 2 years, knowledge of (p = 0.0002), and engagement with (p = 0.03), childhood obesity prevention increased significantly among the SUU5 Committee. Knowledge increased among the Committee's social network (p = 0.001). Significant changes in policies, systems, and environments that support childhood obesity prevention were seen from baseline to 24 months (p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: SUU5 had positive effects on "upstream" drivers of early childhood obesity by increasing knowledge and engagement. These changes partially diffused through networks and may have changed "midstream" community policies, systems, and environments.

Practical Approaches for Promoting Health Equity in Communities.

The Maternal and Child Health workforce, public health practitioners, researchers, and other groups need clear, practical guidance on how to promote health equity in the communities they serve. The National Maternal and Child Health Workforce Development Center's Health Equity Team synthesized eight approaches for promoting health equity that drew on their experience working with public health practitioners and communities. The approaches are to: Expand the understanding of the drivers of health and work across sectors; Take a systems approach; Reflect on your own organization; Follow the lead of communities who experience injustices; Work with community members, decision-makers, and other stakeholders to prioritize action; Foster agency within individuals and collective action within groups; Identify and collect data to show where health inequities currently exist to inform equitable investment of resources; and Be accountable to outcomes that reflect real improvements in people's lives. The fields of maternal and child health and public health more broadly is already engaged in the complex work of promoting equity and social justice, and in doing so, should refine, challenge, add to, and build upon these approaches.

Implementing and Evaluating a Stakeholder-Driven Community Diffusion-Informed Early Childhood Intervention to Prevent Obesity, Cuyahoga County, Ohio, 2018-2020.

PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this article is to demonstrate and evaluate aspects of a Stakeholder-Driven Community Diffusion (SDCD)-informed intervention with a group of stakeholders drawn from a large coalition seeking a novel approach for promoting policy, systems, and environmental-level change. The objectives were to implement an SDCD intervention, assess changes in participants' perspectives, and evaluate where the group's actions fit within the context of a systems map that the group created during the intervention. INTERVENTION APPROACH: An SDCD-informed intervention convened 12 multisector stakeholders from the Early Ages Healthy Stages coalition in Cuyahoga County, Ohio. They participated in group model building activities to promote systems thinking related to childhood obesity prevention, reviewed evidence about topics of interest to the group, and were provided with technical assistance and seed funding to guide the selection and implementation of actions prioritized by the group. EVALUATION METHODS: Data were collected via meeting notes and group model building outputs to demonstrate implementation and action prioritization; online surveys and qualitative interviews to measure perspective change among stakeholders; and a follow-up survey to the broader coalition assessing actions coalition members were taking. RESULTS: An SDCD-informed intervention guided the development of a systems map and the selection of 4 actions: 1) develop a better understanding of the local early childcare environment; 2) assess the effectiveness and impact of Ohio Healthy Programs (OHP); 3) advocate for OHP and improved early childhood education quality; and 4) hold OHP designees accountable to high-quality programming. Data collected from surveys and interviews showed increased awareness of programs, resources, and collaboration opportunities among stakeholders. Follow-up survey results showed ongoing coalition action throughout the systems map. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Using an SDCD-informed intervention among a coalition of community stakeholders provided a unique approach for implementing, assessing, and analyzing collaborative efforts to prevent childhood obesity in Cuyahoga County. Our approach can be applied to help researchers and stakeholders improve efforts to address childhood obesity in their communities.

Implementing Group Model Building With the Shape Up Under 5 Community Committee Working to Prevent Early Childhood Obesity in Somerville, Massachusetts.

OBJECTIVE: To describe our process of using group model building (GMB) with the Shape Up Under 5 Committee; measure the effects on Committee members; and describe the community-wide health messaging campaign that resulted from the process. DESIGN: Pilot study. SETTING: Somerville, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS: Members of the Shape Up Under 5 Committee, a multisector group of professionals. INTERVENTION: Research team convened the Committee and facilitated GMB from October 2015 to June 2017. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Boundary objects produced during GMB activities; committee members' perspectives on early childhood obesity in their community; and Committee members' knowledge, engagement, and trust at the conclusion of each meeting. RESULTS: Working together using GMB activities and with support from the research team, the Committee created a community-wide campaign that provided evidence-based messages to reach an entire city that emphasized diversity and reaching immigrants and community members who spoke languages other than English. More than 80% of Committee members reported changes in their perspectives related to early childhood obesity at the conclusion of the pilot test. Six perspective shift themes emerged from interviews and open-ended survey items: exposure to new perspectives about challenges community members face; increased awareness of others working on similar issues; increased knowledge about early childhood obesity; seeing value in creating a space to work across sectors; appreciating complexity and linkages between early childhood obesity prevention and other community issues; and how participation in committee influences members' priorities in their own work. Knowledge of and engagement with early childhood obesity prevention varied at the conclusion of each meeting, as did increases in trust among Committee members. CONCLUSION: Group model building is a promising approach to support multisector groups working to address early childhood obesity in their community. Meeting activities may have had differential impacts on members' knowledge of and engagement with early childhood obesity.

A Cluster Randomized Trial of a Community-Based Intervention Among African-American Adults: Effects on Dietary and Physical Activity Outcomes.

Evidence of the effectiveness of community-based lifestyle behavior change interventions among African-American adults is mixed. We implemented a behavioral lifestyle change intervention, Heart Matters, in two rural counties in North Carolina with African-American adults. Our aim was to evaluate the effect of Heart Matters on dietary and physical activity behaviors, self-efficacy, and social support. We used a cluster randomized controlled trial to compare Heart Matters to a delayed intervention control group after 6 months. A total of 143 African-American participants were recruited and 108 completed 6-month follow-up assessments (75.5%). We used mixed regression models to evaluate changes in outcomes from baseline to 6-month follow-up. The intervention had a significant positive effect on self-reported scores of encouragement of healthy eating, resulting in an increase in social support from family of 6.11 units (95% CI [1.99, 10.22]) (p < .01). However, intervention participants also had an increase in discouragement of healthy eating compared to controls of 5.59 units (95% CI [1.46, 9.73]) among family (p < .01). There were no significant differences in changes in dietary behaviors. Intervention participants had increased odds (OR = 2.86, 95% CI [1.18, 6.93]) of increased frequency of vigorous activity for at least 20 min per week compared to control participants (p < .05). Individual and group lifestyle behavior counseling can have a role in promoting physical activity levels among rural African-American adults, but more research is needed to identify the best strategies to bolster effectiveness and influence dietary change. Trial Registration: Clinical Trials, NCT02707432. Registered 13 March 2016.

System Support Mapping: A Novel Systems Thinking Tool Applied to Assess the Needs of Maternal and Child Health Title V Professionals and Their Partners.

CONTEXT: The Maternal and Child Health (MCH) workforce aims to improve health outcomes for women, children, and families. The work requires coordination and partnerships that span disciplines and service systems. As such, workforce needs assessment requires an approach that is broad, flexible, and "systems-aware." OBJECTIVE: To illustrate the use of System Support Mapping, a novel systems thinking tool that was used to guide participants through a structured assessment of their discrete responsibilities, key needs, and specific resources required for each. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-four Title V MCH professionals and partners from 15 states or jurisdictions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Description and frequency of Title V MCH professionals' coded roles, responsibilities, needs, resources, and wishes. An aggregated map illustrating interconnections between identified codes is presented. RESULTS: State- and local-level MCH professionals reported a range of roles, responsibilities, needs, resources, and wishes. The most and least frequently reported roles, responsibilities, needs, resources, and wishes by state- and local-level MCH professionals are listed, as well as the most frequent connections between those responses. The most frequent responsibility reported in local maps was "link to or provide care or resources" (82%), whereas the most frequent responsibility reported in state maps was "system management" (65%). System management was indirectly connected to 3 wishes: "access to data or information," "funding or resources," and "collaboration, coordination, or support from community or other external organizations." CONCLUSIONS: System Support Mapping can be used to support needs assessment with MCH professionals. System Support Maps show not only the most and least frequently reported roles, responsibilities, needs, resources, and wishes of participants but also how those responses are connected and potentially interdependent. System Support Maps may be useful for MCH leaders determining how best to organize their teams to take on complex public health challenges and prioritize improvements that will better support their work.

Using Behavior Over Time Graphs to Spur Systems Thinking Among Public Health Practitioners.

Public health practitioners can use Behavior Over Time (BOT) graphs to spur discussion and systems thinking around complex challenges. Multiple large systems, such as health care, the economy, and education, affect chronic disease rates in the United States. System thinking tools can build public health practitioners' capacity to understand these systems and collaborate within and across sectors to improve population health. BOT graphs show a variable, or variables (y axis) over time (x axis). Although analyzing trends is not new to public health, drawing BOT graphs, annotating the events and systemic forces that are likely to influence the depicted trends, and then discussing the graphs in a diverse group provides an opportunity for public health practitioners to hear each other's perspectives and creates a more holistic understanding of the key factors that contribute to a trend. We describe how BOT graphs are used in public health, how they can be used to generate group discussion, and how this process can advance systems-level thinking. Then we describe how BOT graphs were used with groups of maternal and child health (MCH) practitioners and partners (N = 101) during a training session to advance their thinking about MCH challenges. Eighty-six percent of the 84 participants who completed an evaluation agreed or strongly agreed that they would use this BOT graph process to engage stakeholders in their home states and jurisdictions. The BOT graph process we describe can be applied to a variety of public health issues and used by practitioners, stakeholders, and researchers.

Evaluating Food Policy Councils Using Structural Equation Modeling.

At least 282 Food Policy Councils (FPCs) are currently working to improve access to healthy foods in their communities by connecting food system sectors, gathering community input, and advising food policy. Empirical research on FPCs is limited. This study empirically evaluates FPCs to better understand the relationships between Organizational Capacity, Social Capital, and Council Effectiveness by testing a FPC Framework adapted from Allen and colleagues (2012). Members of all FPCs in the U.S., Canada, and Native American Tribes and First Nations were invited to complete the Food Policy Council Self-Assessment Tool (FPC-SAT). Structural equation modeling was used to test the FPC Framework. Three hundred and fifty-four FPC members from 95 councils completed the FPC-SAT. After slight modification, a revised FPC Framework was a good fit with the data (χ2  = 40.085, df = 24, p-value = .021, comparative fit index = 0.988, Tucker Lewis index = 0.982, root mean squared error of approximation = 0.044, p-close = .650). A moderation analysis revealed that community context influences the relationship between Social Capital and Council Effectiveness within the FPC Framework. The FPC Framework can guide capacity building interventions and FPC evaluations. The empirically tested framework can help FPCs efficiently work toward achieving their missions and improving their local food system.

Food Policy Council Self-Assessment Tool: Development, Testing, and Results.

A large number of food policy councils (FPCs) exist in the United States, Canada, and Tribal Nations (N = 278), yet there are no tools designed to measure their members' perceptions of organizational capacity, social capital, and council effectiveness. Without such tools, it is challenging to determine best practices for FPCs and to measure change within and across councils over time. This study describes the development, testing, and findings from the Food Policy Council Self-Assessment Tool (FPC-SAT). The assessment measures council practices and council members' perceptions of the following concepts: leadership, breadth of active membership, council climate, formality of council structure, knowledge sharing, relationships, member empowerment, community context, synergy, and impacts on the food system. All 278 FPCs listed on the Food Policy Network's Online Directory were recruited to complete the FPC-SAT. Internal reliability (Cronbach's α) and inter-rater reliability (AD, rWG(J), ICC [intraclass correlations][1], ICC[2]) were calculated, and exploratory and a confirmatory factor analyses were conducted. Responses from 354 FPC members from 94 councils were used to test the assessment. Cronbach's α ranged from 0.79 to 0.93 for the scales. FPC members reported the lowest mean scores on the breadth of active membership scale (2.49; standard deviation [SD], 0.62), indicating room for improvement, and highest on the leadership scale (3.45; SD, 0.45). The valid FPC-SAT can be used to identify FPC strengths and areas for improvement, measure differences across FPCs, and measure change in FPCs over time.

Nutrition-related policy and environmental strategies to prevent obesity in rural communities: a systematic review of the literature, 2002-2013.

INTRODUCTION: Residents of rural communities in the United States are at higher risk for obesity than their urban and suburban counterparts. Policy and environmental-change strategies supporting healthier dietary intake can prevent obesity and promote health equity. Evidence in support of these strategies is based largely on urban and suburban studies; little is known about use of these strategies in rural communities. The purpose of this review was to synthesize available evidence on the adaptation, implementation, and effectiveness of policy and environmental obesity-prevention strategies in rural settings. METHODS: The review was guided by a list of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Recommended Community Strategies and Measurements to Prevent Obesity in the United States, commonly known as the "COCOMO" strategies. We searched PubMed, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Public Affairs Information Service, and Cochrane databases for articles published from 2002 through 2013 that reported findings from research on nutrition-related policy and environmental strategies in rural communities in the United States and Canada. Two researchers independently abstracted data from each article, and resolved discrepancies by consensus. RESULTS: Of the 663 articles retrieved, 33 met inclusion criteria. The interventions most commonly focused on increasing access to more nutritious foods and beverages or decreasing access to less nutritious options. Rural adaptations included accommodating distance to food sources, tailoring to local food cultures, and building community partnerships. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this literature review provide guidance on adapting and implementing policy and environmental strategies in rural communities.

Practice-based evidence in public health: improving reach, relevance, and results.

The most threatening public health challenges today are chronic and complex and require joint effort from academic researchers in partnership with clinical and public health practitioners to identify and implement sustainable solutions that work in the real world. Practice-based research offers researchers and practitioners an underutilized way forward, an opportunity to work together to design and test feasible, evidence-based programs to address our greatest challenges. In this article, we outline the need for practice-based evidence, tools, and strategies that investigators can use to generate practice-based evidence, describe approaches to translating practice-based evidence into practice, and offer recommendations for making practice-based research the norm in public health.

Changes in systems thinking and health equity considerations across four communities participating in Catalyzing Communities.

Childhood obesity is a persistent public health concern, and community-based interventions have become crucial for addressing it by engaging local communities and implementing comprehensive evidence-based strategies. The Catalyzing Communities intervention takes a "whole-of-community"approach to involve leaders from diverse sectors in thinking systematically about child healthy weights and implementing evidence-based solutions. Using systems thinking and the Getting to Equity framework to guide interview analysis, this study examines changes in participants' use of systems thinking concepts and health equity in 43 participants across four U.S. communities involved in the Catalyzing Communities intervention. Our findings reveal significant shifts in systems thinking concepts, as participants develop a deeper understanding of childhood obesity as a complex adaptive system, and system insights, as participants increasingly recognize the interconnections and leverage points within the system driving childhood obesity. Participants also experienced increases in health equity thinking and action, particularly when discussing social and structural determinants of health, commitment to targeted actions, and a focus on addressing barriers and enhancing resources. The intersection between systems insights and health equity action, such as explaining leverage points and interventions to reduce deterrents to health behaviors, suggests the need for systems thinking activities to be integrated into health equity planning. Future research is needed to develop measures to connect systems thinking concepts to health equity, and the impact of these to community-level policy, systems, and environmental changes in public health.

Racial disparities in stroke incidence in the Women's Health Initiative: Exploring biological, behavioral, psychosocial, and social risk factors.

Background: - Disparities in incident stroke risk among women by race and ethnicity persist. Few studies report the distribution and association of stroke risk factors by age group among a diverse sample of women. Methods: - Data from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Observational Study collected between 1993 and 2010 were used to calculate cumulative stroke incidence and incidence rates among non-Hispanic African American (NHAA), non-Hispanic white (NHW), and Hispanic white or African American (HWAA) women by age group in participants aged ≥50 years at baseline (N = 77,247). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for biological, behavioral, psychosocial, and socioeconomic factors overall and by race or ethnicity were estimated using sequential Cox proportional hazard regression models. Results: - Average follow-up time was 11.52 (SD, 3.48) years. The incident stroke rate was higher among NHAA (306 per 100,000 person-years) compared to NHW (279/100,000py) and HWAA women (147/100,000py) overall and in each age group. The disparity was largest at ages >75 years. The association between stroke risk factors (e.g., smoking, BMI, physical activity) and incident stroke varied across race and ethnicity groups. Higher social support was significantly associated with decreased stroke risk overall (HR:0.84, 95% CI, 0.76, 0.93); the degree of protection varied across race and ethnicity groups. Socioeconomic factors did not contribute additional stroke risk beyond risk conferred by traditional and psychosocial factors. Conclusions: - The distribution and association of stroke risk factors differed between NHAA and NHW women. There is a clear need for stroke prevention strategies that address factors driving racial disparities in stroke risk.

Genetic Testing and Other Healthcare Use by Black and White Individuals in a Genomic Sequencing Study.

INTRODUCTION: Early adopters play a critical role in the diffusion of medical innovations by spreading awareness, increasing acceptability, and driving demand. Understanding the role of race in the context of other characteristics of potential early adopters can shed light on disparities seen in the early implementation of genomic medicine. We aimed to understand the association between self-identified race and individual experience with genetic testing outside of the research context. METHODS: We assessed factors associated with the odds of having ever received genetic testing prior to enrollment in a genomic sequencing study among 674 self-identified white and 407 self-identified African, African American, or Afro-Caribbean ("Black") individuals. RESULTS: Controlling for individual determinants of healthcare use (demographics, personality traits, knowledge and attitudes, and health status), identifying as Black was associated with lower odds of prior genetic testing (OR = 0.43, 95% CI [0.27-0.68], p < 0.001). In contrast, self-identified race was not associated with the use of non-genetic clinical screening tests (e.g., echocardiogram, colonoscopy). Black and white individuals were similar on self-reported personality traits tied to early adoption but differed by sociodemographic and resource facilitators of early adoption. CONCLUSION: Persistent racial disparities among early adopters may represent especially-entrenched disparities in access to and knowledge of genomic technologies in clinical settings.

Using Systems Science for Strategic Planning of Obesity Prevention and Treatment: The Roundtable on Obesity Solutions Experience.

The sustained multi-decade increase in the prevalence of obesity calls for a new approach on addressing this public health concern. The Roundtable on Obesity Solutions (ROOS) (of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine NASEM), a multisector group comprised of members from a variety of organizations and institutions, initiated a year-long effort to build a strategic plan and roadmap for action that would drive a paradigm shift for the ROOS in pursuing obesity solutions. Following a review of obesity prevention and treatment recommendations with sufficient actionable-evidence by authoritative organizations, the ROOS deployed systems science methods. Members engaged in group model building (GMB) exercises to develop an obesity systems map based on determinants and drivers from a multi-sector perspective and overlaid with aligned solutions. To expand the understanding of systems science approaches and methods, 3 public workshops were held in tandem with the development of the map. The causal map was refined, and solutions were ranked using a leverage-point framework to inform a strategic plan and narrative roadmap for action. For the ROOS, structural racism and social justice, biased mental models and social norms, and effective health communications were prioritized as the leverage points most likely to have a significant impact in addressing obesity. Complementary to the mission, vision, and guiding principles of the ROOS, the obesity systems map, and narrative roadmap will drive the ROOS activities over the next 3-6 years and serve as a resource for researchers, organizations, and institutions involved with policy, prevention, and treatment of obesity.

Implementing a stakeholder-driven community diffusion-informed intervention to create healthier, more equitable systems: a community case study in Greenville County, South Carolina.

This case study describes the application of a theory-informed, stakeholder-driven intervention with a group of 19 multi-sector stakeholders from an existing coalition to promote whole-of-community change that supports childhood obesity prevention. The intervention applied community-based system dynamics to design and implement activities that promoted insights into the systems driving childhood obesity prevalence and helped participants prioritize actions to influence those systems. This led to three new priority areas for the coalition: addressing food insecurity; building power among historically marginalized voices within the community; and supporting advocacy efforts to promote community-wide change beyond the coalition's previous focus on organizational-level policy, systems and environment change. The intervention spurred the application of community-based system dynamics to other health issues and in partner organizations, which demonstrates paradigm shifts about how to address complex public health issues in the community.

Understanding Micro-pantries as an Emergency Food Source During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the role of micro-pantries in addressing food insecurity during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. DESIGN: Qualitative interviews with 20 micro-pantry users and 10 stakeholders during April and May, 2020. SETTING: Six US states. PARTICIPANTS: Users, aged ≥ 18 years, had obtained food from a micro-pantry in the past 2 weeks; stakeholders, aged ≥ 18 years, played a role in organizing micro-pantries at the community, regional, or national levels. PHENOMENA OF INTEREST: Impact of COVID-19 on food insecurity and use of micro-pantries to mitigate it; benefits of, suggested improvements to, and adoption and administration of micro-pantries. ANALYSIS: We transcribed the data verbatim and performed deductive qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: Micro-pantry users had increased their use of both micro-pantries and regular food pantries during the pandemic. Micro-pantries helped stretch resources. Users appreciated the anonymity and choice; the mutual aid aspects reduced stigma. Stakeholders described micro-pantries as providing a direct way for neighbors to help neighbors during the pandemic. They described a decentralized and informal system of administration. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Findings suggest that micro-pantries provided a supplemental food source that supported the resilience of communities during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Associations between Food Policy Councils and Policies That Support Healthy Food Access: A National Survey of Community Policy Supports.

Food policy councils (FPCs) are one form of community coalition that aims to address challenges to local food systems and enhance availability, accessibility, and affordability of healthy foods for local residents. We used data from the 2014 National Survey of Community-Based Policy and Environmental Supports for Healthy Eating and Active Living, a nationally representative survey of US municipalities (n = 2029), to examine the prevalence of FPCs and cross-sectional associations between FPCs and four types of supports for healthy food access (approaches to help food stores, practices to support farmers markets, transportation-related supports, and community planning documents). Overall, 7.7% of municipalities reported having a local or regional FPC. FPCs were more commonly reported among larger municipalities with ≥50,000 people (29.2%, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 21.6, 36.8) and western region municipalities (13.2%, 95% CI: 9.6, 16.8). After multivariable adjustment, municipalities with FPCs had significantly higher odds of having all four types of supports, compared to those without FPCs (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) range: 2.4-3.4). Among municipalities with FPCs (n = 156), 41% reported having a local government employee or elected official as a member, and 46% had a designated health or public health representative. Although FPCs were uncommon, municipalities that reported having a local or regional FPC were more likely to report having supports for healthy food access for their residents.

Consolidated Framework for Collaboration Research derived from a systematic review of theories, models, frameworks and principles for cross-sector collaboration.

Cross-sector collaboration is needed to address root causes of persistent public health challenges. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify studies describing theories, models, frameworks and principles for cross-sector collaboration and synthesized collaboration constructs into the Consolidated Framework for Collaboration Research (CFCR). Ninety-five articles were included in the review. Constructs were abstracted from articles and grouped into seven domains within the framework: community context; group composition; structure and internal processes; group dynamics; social capital; activities that influence or take place within the collaboration; activities that influence or take place within the broader community; and activities that influence or take place both in the collaboration and in the community. Community engagement strategies employed by collaborations are discussed, as well as recommendations for using systems science methods for testing specific mechanisms of how constructs identified in the review influence one another. Researchers, funders, and collaboration members can use the consolidated framework to articulate components of collaboration and test mechanisms explaining how collaborations function. By working from a consolidated framework of collaboration terms and using systems science methods, researchers can advance evidence for the efficacy of cross-sector collaborations.

Dynamic Empirically Based Model for Understanding Future Trends in US Obesity Prevalence in the Context of Social Influences.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to (1) identify mechanistic model structures that produced quality fit to historic obesity prevalence trends and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of future obesity prevalence to social transmission and nonsocial parameters. METHODS: An age- and gender-structured compartmental model was used to describe transitions between weight status groups. Four model structures with different combinations of social transmission and nonsocial mechanisms were calibrated to match historic time series and assessed for quality of fit. Projections of overall obesity prevalence to 2052 were simulated, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The model structure that included only nonsocial mechanisms indicated that the overall obesity prevalence in the United States has already stabilized and will increase little more; however, it underestimated observed obesity prevalence since 2013. If social transmission mechanisms influence obesity, the model estimated continued increases in obesity prevalence, reaching 48.0% to 55.1% by 2050. Obesity prevalence was most sensitive to changes in the adult social transmission parameters, especially among women. CONCLUSIONS: The model projected that US obesity prevalence in the overall population will likely continue to increase for decades. The findings that obesity prevalence was most sensitive to adult parameters can be used to inform conversations about priorities for public health and health care programs and policies.