Postexposure Doxycycline to Prevent Bacterial Sexually Transmitted Infections.

BACKGROUND: Interventions to reduce sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among men who have sex with men (MSM) are needed. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, randomized study involving MSM and transgender women who were taking preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (PrEP cohort) or living with HIV infection (persons living with HIV infection [PLWH] cohort) and who had had Neisseria gonorrhoeae (gonorrhea), Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia), or syphilis in the past year. Participants were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to take 200 mg of doxycycline within 72 hours after condomless sex (doxycycline postexposure prophylaxis) or receive standard care without doxycycline. STI testing was performed quarterly. The primary end point was the incidence of at least one STI per follow-up quarter. RESULTS: Of 501 participants (327 in the PrEP cohort and 174 in the PLWH cohort), 67% were White, 7% Black, 11% Asian or Pacific Islander, and 30% Hispanic or Latino. In the PrEP cohort, an STI was diagnosed in 61 of 570 quarterly visits (10.7%) in the doxycycline group and 82 of 257 quarterly visits (31.9%) in the standard-care group, for an absolute difference of -21.2 percentage points and a relative risk of 0.34 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24 to 0.46; P<0.001). In the PLWH cohort, an STI was diagnosed in 36 of 305 quarterly visits (11.8%) in the doxycycline group and 39 of 128 quarterly visits (30.5%) in the standard-care group, for an absolute difference of -18.7 percentage points and a relative risk of 0.38 (95% CI, 0.24 to 0.60; P<0.001). The incidences of the three evaluated STIs were lower with doxycycline than with standard care; in the PrEP cohort, the relative risks were 0.45 (95% CI, 0.32 to 0.65) for gonorrhea, 0.12 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.25) for chlamydia, and 0.13 (95% CI, 0.03 to 0.59) for syphilis, and in the PLWH cohort, the relative risks were 0.43 (95% CI, 0.26 to 0.71), 0.26 (95% CI, 0.12 to 0.57), and 0.23 (95% CI, 0.04 to 1.29), respectively. Five grade 3 adverse events and no serious adverse events were attributed to doxycycline. Of the participants with gonorrhea culture available, tetracycline-resistant gonorrhea occurred in 5 of 13 in the doxycycline groups and 2 of 16 in the standard-care groups. CONCLUSIONS: The combined incidence of gonorrhea, chlamydia, and syphilis was lower by two thirds with doxycycline postexposure prophylaxis than with standard care, a finding that supports its use among MSM with recent bacterial STIs. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; DoxyPEP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03980223.).

Community-Wide Universal HIV Test and Treat Intervention Reduces Tuberculosis Transmission in Rural Uganda: A Cluster-Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment reduces tuberculosis (TB) disease and mortality; however, the population-level impact of universal HIV-test-and-treat interventions on TB infection and transmission remain unclear. METHODS: In a sub-study nested in the SEARCH trial, a community cluster-randomized trial (NCT01864603), we assessed whether a universal HIV-test-and-treat intervention reduced population-level incident TB infection in rural Uganda. Intervention communities received annual, population-level HIV testing and patient-centered linkage. Control communities received population-level HIV testing at baseline and endline. We compared estimated incident TB infection by arms, defined by tuberculin skin test conversion in a cohort of persons aged 5 and older, adjusting for participation and predictors of infection, and accounting for clustering. RESULTS: Of the 32 trial communities, 9 were included, comprising 90 801 participants (43 127 intervention and 47 674 control). One-year cumulative incidence of TB infection was 16% in the intervention and 22% in the control; SEARCH reduced the population-level risk of incident TB infection by 27% (adjusted risk ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: .57-.92, P = .005). In pre-specified analyses, the effect was largest among children aged 5-11 years and males. CONCLUSIONS: A universal HIV-test-and-treat intervention reduced incident TB infection, a marker of population-level TB transmission. Investments in community-level HIV interventions have broader population-level benefits, including TB reductions.

Blurring cluster randomized trials and observational studies: Two-Stage TMLE for subsampling, missingness, and few independent units.

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) often enroll large numbers of participants; yet due to resource constraints, only a subset of participants may be selected for outcome assessment, and those sampled may not be representative of all cluster members. Missing data also present a challenge: if sampled individuals with measured outcomes are dissimilar from those with missing outcomes, unadjusted estimates of arm-specific endpoints and the intervention effect may be biased. Further, CRTs often enroll and randomize few clusters, limiting statistical power and raising concerns about finite sample performance. Motivated by SEARCH-TB, a CRT aimed at reducing incident tuberculosis infection, we demonstrate interlocking methods to handle these challenges. First, we extend Two-Stage targeted minimum loss-based estimation to account for three sources of missingness: (i) subsampling; (ii) measurement of baseline status among those sampled; and (iii) measurement of final status among those in the incidence cohort (persons known to be at risk at baseline). Second, we critically evaluate the assumptions under which subunits of the cluster can be considered the conditionally independent unit, improving precision and statistical power but also causing the CRT to behave like an observational study. Our application to SEARCH-TB highlights the real-world impact of different assumptions on measurement and dependence; estimates relying on unrealistic assumptions suggested the intervention increased the incidence of TB infection by 18% (risk ratio [RR]=1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85-1.63), while estimates accounting for the sampling scheme, missingness, and within community dependence found the intervention decreased the incident TB by 27% (RR=0.73, 95% CI: 0.57-0.92).

The Association Between Social Network Characteristics and Tuberculosis Infection Among Adults in 9 Rural Ugandan Communities.

BACKGROUND: Social network analysis can elucidate tuberculosis transmission dynamics outside the home and may inform novel network-based case-finding strategies. METHODS: We assessed the association between social network characteristics and prevalent tuberculosis infection among residents (aged ≥15 years) of 9 rural communities in Eastern Uganda. Social contacts named during a census were used to create community-specific nonhousehold social networks. We evaluated whether social network structure and characteristics of first-degree contacts (sex, human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] status, tuberculosis infection) were associated with revalent tuberculosis infection (positive tuberculin skin test [TST] result) after adjusting for individual-level risk factors (age, sex, HIV status, tuberculosis contact, wealth, occupation, and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin [BCG] vaccination) with targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: Among 3 335 residents sampled for TST, 32% had a positive TST results and 4% reported a tuberculosis contact. The social network contained 15 328 first-degree contacts. Persons with the most network centrality (top 10%) (adjusted risk ratio, 1.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.1]) and the most (top 10%) male contacts (1.5 [1.3-1.9]) had a higher risk of prevalent tuberculosis, than those in the remaining 90%. People with ≥1 contact with HIV (adjusted risk ratio, 1.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.6]) and ≥2 contacts with tuberculosis infection were more likely to have tuberculosis themselves (2.6 [ 95% confidence interval: 2.2-2.9]). CONCLUSIONS: Social networks with higher centrality, more men, contacts with HIV, and tuberculosis infection were positively associated with tuberculosis infection. Tuberculosis transmission within measurable social networks may explain prevalent tuberculosis not associated with a household contact. Further study on network-informed tuberculosis case finding interventions is warranted.

Drought, HIV Testing, and HIV Transmission Risk Behaviors: A Population-Based Study in 10 High HIV Prevalence Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Droughts are associated with poor health outcomes and disruption of public health programming. Data on the association between drought and HIV testing and transmission risk behaviors are limited. We combined data from Demographic and Health Surveys from 10 high HIV prevalence sub-Saharan African countries with a high-resolution measure of drought. We estimated the association between drought and recent HIV testing, report of condomless sex, and number of sexual partners in the last year. Respondents exposed to drought were less likely to have an HIV test and more likely to have condomless sex, although effect sizes were small. We found evidence for effect modification by sex and age for the association between drought and HIV testing, such that the negative association between drought and HIV testing was strongest among men (marginal risk ratio [mRR] 0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.95) and adolescents (mRR 0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.93). Drought may hinder HIV testing programs in countries with high HIV prevalence.

Mobility is Associated with Higher-risk Sexual Partnerships Among Both Men and Women in Co-resident Couples in Rural Kenya and Uganda: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

Population mobility is associated with higher-risk sexual behaviors in sub-Saharan Africa and is a key driver of the HIV epidemic. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study to estimate associations between recent mobility (overnight travel away from home in past six months) or migration (changes of residence over defined geopolitical boundaries) and higher-risk sexual behavior among co-resident couples (240 couples aged ≥ 16) from 12 rural communities in Kenya and Uganda. Data on concurrent mobility and sexual risk behaviors were collected every 6-months between 2015 and 2020. We used sex-pooled and sex-stratified multilevel models to estimate associations between couple mobility configurations (neither partner mobile, male mobile/female not mobile, female mobile/male not mobile, both mobile) and the odds of higher-risk (casual, commercial sex worker/client, one night stand, inherited partner, stranger) and concurrent sexual partnerships based on who was mobile. On average across all time points and subjects, mobile women were more likely than non-mobile women to have a higher-risk partner; similarly, mobile men were more likely than non-mobile men to report a higher-risk partnership. Men with work-related mobility versus not had higher odds of higher-risk partnerships. Women with work-related mobility versus not had higher odds of higher-risk partnerships. Couples where both members were mobile versus neither had greater odds of higher-risk partnerships. In analyses using 6-month lagged versions of key predictors, migration events of men, but not women, preceded higher-risk partnerships. Findings demonstrate HIV risks for men and women associated with mobility and the need for prevention approaches attentive to the risk-enhancing contexts of mobility.

Two or more significant life-events in 6-months are associated with lower rates of HIV treatment and virologic suppression among youth with HIV in Uganda and Kenya.

Youth living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa have poor HIV care outcomes. We determined the association of recent significant life-events with HIV antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation and HIV viral suppression in youth aged 15-24 years living with HIV in rural Kenya and Uganda. This was a cross-sectional analysis of 995 youth enrolled in the SEARCH Youth study. At baseline, providers assessed recent (within 6 months) life-events, defined as changes in schooling/employment, residence, partnerships, sickness, incarceration status, family strife or death, and birth/pregnancy, self-reported alcohol use, being a parent, and HIV-status disclosure. We examined the frequencies of events and their association with ART status and HIV viral suppression (<400 copies/ul). Recent significant life-events were prevalent (57.7%). Having >2 significant life-events (aOR = 0.61, 95% CI:0.45-0.85) and consuming alcohol (aOR = 0.61, 95% CI:0.43-0.87) were associated with a lower odds of HIV viral suppression, while disclosure of HIV-status to partner (aOR = 2.39, 95% CI:1.6-3.5) or to family (aOR = 1.86, 95% CI:1.3-2.7), being a parent (aOR = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.5), and being single (aOR = 1.6, 95% CI:1.3-2.1) had a higher odds. This suggest that two or more recent life-events and alcohol use are key barriers to ART initiation and achievement of viral suppression among youth living with HIV in rural East Africa.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03848728..

HIV Testing and Treatment with the Use of a Community Health Approach in Rural Africa.

BACKGROUND: Universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) with annual population testing and a multidisease, patient-centered strategy could reduce new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and improve community health. METHODS: We randomly assigned 32 rural communities in Uganda and Kenya to baseline HIV and multidisease testing and national guideline-restricted ART (control group) or to baseline testing plus annual testing, eligibility for universal ART, and patient-centered care (intervention group). The primary end point was the cumulative incidence of HIV infection at 3 years. Secondary end points included viral suppression, death, tuberculosis, hypertension control, and the change in the annual incidence of HIV infection (which was evaluated in the intervention group only). RESULTS: A total of 150,395 persons were included in the analyses. Population-level viral suppression among 15,399 HIV-infected persons was 42% at baseline and was higher in the intervention group than in the control group at 3 years (79% vs. 68%; relative prevalence, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.20). The annual incidence of HIV infection in the intervention group decreased by 32% over 3 years (from 0.43 to 0.31 cases per 100 person-years; relative rate, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.84). However, the 3-year cumulative incidence (704 incident HIV infections) did not differ significantly between the intervention group and the control group (0.77% and 0.81%, respectively; relative risk, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.17). Among HIV-infected persons, the risk of death by year 3 was 3% in the intervention group and 4% in the control group (0.99 vs. 1.29 deaths per 100 person-years; relative risk, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.93). The risk of HIV-associated tuberculosis or death by year 3 among HIV-infected persons was 4% in the intervention group and 5% in the control group (1.19 vs. 1.50 events per 100 person-years; relative risk, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.94). At 3 years, 47% of adults with hypertension in the intervention group and 37% in the control group had hypertension control (relative prevalence, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.39). CONCLUSIONS: Universal HIV treatment did not result in a significantly lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care, probably owing to the availability of comprehensive baseline HIV testing and the rapid expansion of ART eligibility in the control group. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; SEARCH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01864603.).

SEARCH Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Streamlined Treatment Intervention Reduces Mortality at a Population Level in Men With Low CD4 Counts.

BACKGROUND: We tested the hypothesis that patient-centered, streamlined human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care would achieve lower mortality than the standard treatment model for persons with HIV and CD4 ≤ 350/uL in the setting of population-wide HIV testing. METHODS: In the SEARCH (Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health) Study (NCT01864603), 32 communities in rural Uganda and Kenya were randomized to country-guided antiretroviral therapy (ART) versus streamlined ART care that included rapid ART start, visit spacing, flexible clinic hours, and welcoming environment. We assessed persons with HIV and CD4 ≤ 350/uL, ART eligible in both arms, and estimated the effect of streamlined care on ART initiation and mortality at 3 years. Comparisons between study arms used a cluster-level analysis with survival estimates from Kaplan-Meier; estimates of ART start among ART-naive persons treated death as a competing risk. RESULTS: Among 13 266 adults with HIV, 2973 (22.4%) had CD4 ≤ 350/uL. Of these, 33% were new diagnoses, and 10% were diagnosed but ART-naive. Men with HIV were almost twice as likely as women with HIV to have CD4 ≤ 350/uL and be untreated (15% vs 8%, respectively). Streamlined care reduced mortality by 28% versus control (risk ratio [RR] = 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: .56, .93; P = .02). Despite eligibility in both arms, persons with CD4 ≤ 350/uL started ART faster under streamlined care versus control (76% vs 43% by 12 months, respectively; P < .001). Mortality was reduced substantially more among men (RR = 0.61; 95% CI: .43, .86; P = .01) than among women (RR = 0.90; 95% CI: .62, 1.32; P = .58). CONCLUSIONS: After population-based HIV testing, streamlined care reduced population-level mortality among persons with HIV and CD4 ≤ 350/uL, particularly among men. Streamlined HIV care models may play a key role in global efforts to reduce AIDS deaths.

Outcomes and costs of publicly funded patient navigation interventions to enhance HIV care continuum outcomes in the United States: A before-and-after study.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, patients with HIV face significant barriers to linkage to and retention in care which impede the necessary steps toward achieving the desired clinical outcome of viral suppression. Individual-level interventions, such as patient navigation, are evidence based, effective strategies for improving care engagement. In addition, use of surveillance and clinical data to identify patients who are not fully engaged in care may improve the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We employed a pre-post design to estimate the outcomes and costs, from the program perspective, of 5 state-level demonstration programs funded under the Health Resources and Services Administration's Special Projects of National Significance Program (HRSA/SPNS) Systems Linkages Initiative that employed existing surveillance and/or clinical data to identify individuals who had never entered HIV care, had fallen out of care, or were at risk of falling out of care and navigation strategies to engage patients in HIV care. Outcomes and costs were measured relative to standard of care during the first year of implementation of the interventions (2013 to 2014). We followed patients to estimate the number and proportion of additional patients linked, reengaged, retained, and virally suppressed by 12 months after enrollment in the interventions. We employed inverse probability weighting to adjust for differences in patient characteristics across programs, missing data, and loss to follow-up. We estimated the additional costs expended during the first year of each intervention and the cost per outcome of each intervention as the additional cost per HIV additional care continuum target achieved (cost per patient linked, reengaged, retained, and virally suppressed) 12 months after enrollment in each intervention. In this study, 3,443 patients were enrolled in Louisiana (LA), Massachusetts (MA), North Carolina (NC), Virginia (VA), and Wisconsin (WI) (147, 151, 2,491, 321, and 333, respectively). Patients were a mean of 40 years old, 75% male, and African American (69%) or Caucasian (22%). At baseline, 24% were newly diagnosed, 2% had never been in HIV care, 45% had fallen out of care, and 29% were at risk of falling out of care. All 5 interventions were associated with increases in the number and proportion of patients with viral suppression [percent increase: LA = 90.9%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 88.4 to 93.4; MA = 78.1%, 95% CI = 72.4 to 83.8; NC = 47.5%, 95% CI = 45.2 to 49.8; VA = 54.6, 95% CI = 49.4 to 59.9; WI = 58.4, 95% CI = 53.4 to 63.4]. Overall, interventions cost an additional $4,415 (range = $3,746 to $5,619), $2,009 (range = $1,516 to $2,274), $920 (range = $627 to $941), $2,212 (range = $1,789 to $2,683), and $3,700 ($2,734 to $4,101), respectively per additional patient virally suppressed. The results of this study are limited in that we did not have contemporaneous controls for each intervention; thus, we are only able to assess patients against themselves at baseline and not against standard of care during the same time period. CONCLUSIONS: Patient navigation programs were associated with improvements in engagement of patients in HIV care and viral suppression. Cost per outcome was minimized in states that utilized surveillance data to identify individuals who were out of care and/or those that were able to identify a larger number of patients in need of improvement at baseline. These results have the potential to inform the targeting and design of future navigation-type interventions.

Effect of a patient-centered hypertension delivery strategy on all-cause mortality: Secondary analysis of SEARCH, a community-randomized trial in rural Kenya and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension treatment reduces morbidity and mortality yet has not been broadly implemented in many low-resource settings, including sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We hypothesized that a patient-centered integrated chronic disease model that included hypertension treatment and leveraged the HIV care system would reduce mortality among adults with uncontrolled hypertension in rural Kenya and Uganda. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a secondary analysis of the SEARCH trial (NCT:01864603), in which 32 communities underwent baseline population-based multidisease testing, including hypertension screening, and were randomized to standard country-guided treatment or to a patient-centered integrated chronic care model including treatment for hypertension, diabetes, and HIV. Patient-centered care included on-site introduction to clinic staff at screening, nursing triage to expedite visits, reduced visit frequency, flexible clinic hours, and a welcoming clinic environment. The analytic population included nonpregnant adults (≥18 years) with baseline uncontrolled hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg). The primary outcome was 3-year all-cause mortality with comprehensive population-level assessment. Secondary outcomes included hypertension control assessed at a population level at year 3 (defined per country guidelines as at least 1 blood pressure measure <140/90 mm Hg on 3 repeated measures). Between-arm comparisons used cluster-level targeted maximum likelihood estimation. Among 86,078 adults screened at study baseline (June 2013 to July 2014), 10,928 (13%) had uncontrolled hypertension. Median age was 53 years (25th to 75th percentile 40 to 66); 6,058 (55%) were female; 677 (6%) were HIV infected; and 477 (4%) had diabetes mellitus. Overall, 174 participants (3.2%) in the intervention group and 225 participants (4.1%) in the control group died during 3 years of follow-up (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64 to 0.97, p = 0.028). Among those with baseline grade 3 hypertension (≥180/110 mm Hg), 22 (4.9%) in the intervention group and 42 (7.9%) in the control group died during 3 years of follow-up (aRR 0.62, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.97, p = 0.038). Estimated population-level hypertension control at year 3 was 53% in intervention and 44% in control communities (aRR 1.22, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.33, p < 0.001). Study limitations include inability to identify specific causes of death and control conditions that exceeded current standard hypertension care. CONCLUSIONS: In this cluster randomized comparison where both arms received population-level hypertension screening, implementation of a patient-centered hypertension care model was associated with a 21% reduction in all-cause mortality and a 22% improvement in hypertension control compared to standard care among adults with baseline uncontrolled hypertension. Patient-centered chronic care programs for HIV can be leveraged to reduce the overall burden of cardiovascular mortality in SSA. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01864603.

HIV incidence after pre-exposure prophylaxis initiation among women and men at elevated HIV risk: A population-based study in rural Kenya and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective for HIV prevention, but data are limited on HIV incidence among PrEP users in generalized epidemic settings, particularly outside of selected risk groups. We performed a population-based PrEP study in rural Kenya and Uganda and sought to evaluate both changes in HIV incidence and clinical and virologic outcomes following seroconversion on PrEP. METHODS AND FINDINGS: During population-level HIV testing of individuals ≥15 years in 16 communities in the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) study (NCT01864603), we offered universal access to PrEP with enhanced counseling for persons at elevated HIV risk (based on serodifferent partnership, machine learning-based risk score, or self-identified HIV risk). We offered rapid or same-day PrEP initiation and flexible service delivery with follow-up visits at facilities or community-based sites at 4, 12, and every 12 weeks up to week 144. Among participants with incident HIV infection after PrEP initiation, we offered same-day antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and analyzed HIV RNA, tenofovir hair concentrations, drug resistance, and viral suppression (<1,000 c/ml based on available assays) after ART start. Using Poisson regression with cluster-robust standard errors, we compared HIV incidence among PrEP initiators to incidence among propensity score-matched recent historical controls (from the year before PrEP availability) in 8 of the 16 communities, adjusted for risk group. Among 74,541 individuals who tested negative for HIV, 15,632/74,541 (21%) were assessed to be at elevated HIV risk; 5,447/15,632 (35%) initiated PrEP (49% female; 29% 15-24 years; 19% in serodifferent partnerships), of whom 79% engaged in ≥1 follow-up visit and 61% self-reported PrEP adherence at ≥1 visit. Over 7,150 person-years of follow-up, HIV incidence was 0.35 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.22-0.49) among PrEP initiators. Among matched controls, HIV incidence was 0.92 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.49-1.41), corresponding to 74% lower incidence among PrEP initiators compared to matched controls (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 0.26, 95% CI 0.09-0.75; p = 0.013). Among women, HIV incidence was 76% lower among PrEP initiators versus matched controls (aIRR 0.24, 95% CI 0.07-0.79; p = 0.019); among men, HIV incidence was 40% lower, but not significantly so (aIRR 0.60, 95% CI 0.12-3.05; p = 0.54). Of 25 participants with incident HIV infection (68% women), 7/25 (28%) reported taking PrEP ≤30 days before HIV diagnosis, and 24/25 (96%) started ART. Of those with repeat HIV RNA after ART start, 18/19 (95%) had <1,000 c/ml. One participant with viral non-suppression was found to have transmitted viral resistance, as well as emtricitabine resistance possibly related to PrEP use. Limitations include the lack of contemporaneous controls to assess HIV incidence without PrEP and that plasma samples were not archived to assess for baseline acute infection. CONCLUSIONS: Population-level offer of PrEP with rapid start and flexible service delivery was associated with 74% lower HIV incidence among PrEP initiators compared to matched recent controls prior to PrEP availability. HIV infections were significantly lower among women who started PrEP. Universal HIV testing with linkage to treatment and prevention, including PrEP, is a promising approach to accelerate reductions in new infections in generalized epidemic settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01864603.

Machine Learning to Identify Persons at High-Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Acquisition in Rural Kenya and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: In generalized epidemic settings, strategies are needed to prioritize individuals at higher risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition for prevention services. We used population-level HIV testing data from rural Kenya and Uganda to construct HIV risk scores and assessed their ability to identify seroconversions. METHODS: During 2013-2017, >75% of residents in 16 communities in the SEARCH study were tested annually for HIV. In this population, we evaluated 3 strategies for using demographic factors to predict the 1-year risk of HIV seroconversion: membership in ≥1 known "risk group" (eg, having a spouse living with HIV), a "model-based" risk score constructed with logistic regression, and a "machine learning" risk score constructed with the Super Learner algorithm. We hypothesized machine learning would identify high-risk individuals more efficiently (fewer persons targeted for a fixed sensitivity) and with higher sensitivity (for a fixed number targeted) than either other approach. RESULTS: A total of 75 558 persons contributed 166 723 person-years of follow-up; 519 seroconverted. Machine learning improved efficiency. To achieve a fixed sensitivity of 50%, the risk-group strategy targeted 42% of the population, the model-based strategy targeted 27%, and machine learning targeted 18%. Machine learning also improved sensitivity. With an upper limit of 45% targeted, the risk-group strategy correctly classified 58% of seroconversions, the model-based strategy 68%, and machine learning 78%. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning improved classification of individuals at risk of HIV acquisition compared with a model-based approach or reliance on known risk groups and could inform targeting of prevention strategies in generalized epidemic settings. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01864603.

Drought and intimate partner violence towards women in 19 countries in sub-Saharan Africa during 2011-2018: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Drought has many known deleterious impacts on human health, but little is known about the relationship between drought and intimate partner violence (IPV). We aimed to evaluate this relationship and to assess effect heterogeneity between population subgroups among women in 19 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from 19 Demographic and Health Surveys from 2011 to 2018 including 83,990 partnered women aged 15-49 years. Deviations in rainfall in the year before the survey date were measured relative to the 29 previous years using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data, with recent drought classified as ordinal categorical variable (severe: ≤10th percentile; mild/moderate: >10th percentile to ≤30th percentile; none: >30th percentile). We considered 4 IPV-related outcomes: reporting a controlling partner (a risk factor for IPV) and experiencing emotional violence, physical violence, or sexual violence in the 12 months prior to survey. Logistic regression was used to estimate marginal risk differences (RDs). We evaluated the presence of effect heterogeneity by age group and employment status. Of the 83,990 women included in the analytic sample, 10.7% (9,019) experienced severe drought and 23.4% (19,639) experienced mild/moderate drought in the year prior to the survey, with substantial heterogeneity across countries. The mean age of respondents was 30.8 years (standard deviation 8.2). The majority of women lived in rural areas (66.3%) and were married (73.3%), while less than half (42.6%) were literate. Women living in severe drought had higher risk of reporting a controlling partner (marginal RD in percentage points = 3.0, 95% CI 1.3, 4.6; p < 0.001), experiencing physical violence (marginal RD = 0.8, 95% CI 0.1, 1.5; p = 0.019), and experiencing sexual violence (marginal RD = 1.2, 95% CI 0.4, 2.0; p = 0.001) compared with women not experiencing drought. Women living in mild/moderate drought had higher risk of reporting physical (marginal RD = 0.7, 95% CI 0.2, 1.1; p = 0.003) and sexual violence (marginal RD = 0.7, 95% CI 0.3, 1.2; p = 0.001) compared with those not living in drought. We did not find evidence for an association between drought and emotional violence. In analyses stratified by country, we found 3 settings where drought was protective for at least 1 measure of IPV: Namibia, Tanzania, and Uganda. We found evidence for effect heterogeneity (additive interaction) for the association between drought and younger age and between drought and employment status, with stronger associations between drought and IPV among adolescent girls and unemployed women. This study is limited by its lack of measured hypothesized mediating variables linking drought and IPV, prohibiting a formal mediation analysis. Additional limitations include the potential for bias due to residual confounding and potential non-differential misclassification of the outcome measures leading to an attenuation of observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that drought was associated with measures of IPV towards women, with larger positive associations among adolescent girls and unemployed women. There was heterogeneity in these associations across countries. Weather shocks may exacerbate vulnerabilities among women in sub-Saharan Africa. Future work should further evaluate potential mechanisms driving these relationships.

Far from MCAR: Obtaining Population-level Estimates of HIV Viral Suppression.

BACKGROUND: Population-level estimates of disease prevalence and control are needed to assess prevention and treatment strategies. However, available data often suffer from differential missingness. For example, population-level HIV viral suppression is the proportion of all HIV-positive persons with suppressed viral replication. Individuals with measured HIV status, and among HIV-positive individuals those with measured viral suppression, likely differ from those without such measurements. METHODS: We discuss three sets of assumptions to identify population-level suppression in the intervention arm of the SEARCH Study (NCT01864603), a community randomized trial in rural Kenya and Uganda (2013-2017). Using data on nearly 100,000 participants, we compare estimates from (1) an unadjusted approach assuming data are missing-completely-at-random (MCAR); (2) stratification on age group, sex, and community; and (3) targeted maximum likelihood estimation to adjust for a larger set of baseline and time-updated variables. RESULTS: Despite high measurement coverage, estimates of population-level viral suppression varied by identification assumption. Unadjusted estimates were most optimistic: 50% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 46%, 54%) of HIV-positive persons suppressed at baseline, 80% (95% CI = 78%, 82%) at year 1, 85% (95% CI = 83%, 86%) at year 2, and 85% (95% CI = 83%, 87%) at year 3. Stratifying on baseline predictors yielded slightly lower estimates, and full adjustment reduced estimates meaningfully: 42% (95% CI = 37%, 46%) of HIV-positive persons suppressed at baseline, 71% (95% CI = 69%, 73%) at year 1, 76% (95% CI = 74%, 78%) at year 2, and 79% (95% CI = 77%, 81%) at year 3. CONCLUSIONS: Estimation of population-level disease burden and control requires appropriate adjustment for missing data. Even in large studies with limited missingness, estimates relying on the MCAR assumption or baseline stratification should be interpreted cautiously.

Understanding Demand for PrEP and Early Experiences of PrEP Use Among Young Adults in Rural Kenya and Uganda: A Qualitative Study.

Few studies have sought to understand factors influencing uptake and continuation of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among young adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of population-based delivery of open-label PrEP. To address this gap, this qualitative study was implemented within the SEARCH study (NCT#01864603) in Kenya and Uganda, which achieved near-universal HIV testing, and offered PrEP in 16 intervention communities beginning in 2016-2017. Focus group discussions (8 groups, n = 88 participants) and in-depth interviews (n = 23) with young adults who initiated or declined PrEP were conducted in five communities, to explore PrEP-related beliefs and attitudes, HIV risk perceptions, motivations for uptake and continuation, and experiences. Grounded theoretical methods were used to analyze data. Young people felt personally vulnerable to HIV, but perceived the severity of HIV to be low, due to the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART): daily pill-taking was more threatening than the disease itself. Motivations for PrEP were highly gendered: young men viewed PrEP as a vehicle for safely pursuing multiple partners, while young women saw PrEP as a means to control risks in the context of engagement in transactional sex and limited agency to negotiate condom use and partner testing. Rumors, HIV/ART-related stigma, and desire for "proof" of efficacy militated against uptake, and many women required partners' permission to take PrEP. Uptake was motivated by high perceived HIV risk, and beliefs that PrEP use supported life goals. PrEP was often discontinued due to dissolution of partnerships/changing risk, unsupportive partners/peers, or early side effects/pill burden. Despite high perceived risks and interest, PrEP was received with moral ambivalence because of its associations with HIV/ART and stigmatized behaviors. Delivery models that promote youth access, frame messaging on wellness and goals, and foster partner and peer support, may facilitate uptake among young people.

Predictors of isoniazid preventive therapy completion among HIV-infected patients receiving differentiated and non-differentiated HIV care in rural Uganda.

Rates of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy (IPT) completion remain low in programmatic settings in sub-Saharan Africa. Differentiated HIV care models may improve IPT completion by addressing joint barriers to IPT and HIV treatment. However, the impact of differentiated care on IPT completion remains unknown. In a cross-sectional study of people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in 5 communities in rural Uganda, we compared IPT completion between patients receiving HIV care via a differentiated care model versus a standard HIV care model and assessed multi-level predictors of IPT completion. A total of 103/144 (72%) patients received differentiated care and 85/161 (53%) received standard care completed IPT (p < 0.01). Adjusting for age, gender and community, patients receiving differentiated care had higher odds of completing IPT (aOR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.5-4.5, p < 0.01). Predictors of IPT completion varied by the care model, and differentiated care modified the positive association between treatment completion and the belief in the efficacy of IPT and the negative association with side-effects. Patients receiving a multi-component differentiated care model had a higher odds of IPT completion than standard care, and the model's impact on health beliefs, social support, and perceived side effects to IPT may underlie this positive association.

Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine for the Prevention of Malaria in Pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine is widely recommended for the prevention of malaria in pregnant women in Africa. However, with the spread of resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, new interventions are needed. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, controlled trial involving 300 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-uninfected pregnant adolescents or women in Uganda, where sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance is widespread. We randomly assigned participants to a sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine regimen (106 participants), a three-dose dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine regimen (94 participants), or a monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine regimen (100 participants). The primary outcome was the prevalence of histopathologically confirmed placental malaria. RESULTS: The prevalence of histopathologically confirmed placental malaria was significantly higher in the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine group (50.0%) than in the three-dose dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (34.1%, P=0.03) or the monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (27.1%, P=0.001). The prevalence of a composite adverse birth outcome was lower in the monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (9.2%) than in the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine group (18.6%, P=0.05) or the three-dose dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (21.3%, P=0.02). During pregnancy, the incidence of symptomatic malaria was significantly higher in the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine group (41 episodes over 43.0 person-years at risk) than in the three-dose dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (12 episodes over 38.2 person-years at risk, P=0.001) or the monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (0 episodes over 42.3 person-years at risk, P<0.001), as was the prevalence of parasitemia (40.5% in the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine group vs. 16.6% in the three-dose dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group [P<0.001] and 5.2% in the monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group [P<0.001]). In each treatment group, the risk of vomiting after administration of any dose of the study agents was less than 0.4%, and there were no significant differences among the groups in the risk of adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of malaria in pregnancy was significantly lower among adolescent girls or women who received intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine than among those who received sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, and monthly treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine was superior to three-dose dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine with regard to several outcomes. (Funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02163447.).

Mobility and its Effects on HIV Acquisition and Treatment Engagement: Recent Theoretical and Empirical Advances.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We reviewed literature across multiple disciplines to describe issues with the measurement of population mobility in HIV research and to summarize evidence of causal pathways linking mobility to HIV acquisition risks and treatment engagement, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa. RECENT FINDINGS: While the literature on mobility and HIV remains hampered by problems and inconsistency in measures of mobility, the recent research reveals a turn towards a greater attentiveness to measurement and gender. Theoretical and heuristic models for the study of mobility and HIV acquisition and treatment outcomes have been published, but few studies have used longitudinal designs with clear ascertainment of exposures and outcomes for measurement of causal pathways. Notwithstanding these limitations, evidence continues to accumulate that mobility is linked to higher HIV incidence, and that it challenges optimal treatment engagement. Gender continues to be important: while men are more mobile than women, women's mobility particularly heightens their HIV acquisition risks. Recent large-scale efforts to find, test, and treat the individuals in communities who are most at risk of sustaining local HIV transmission have been severely challenged by mobility. Novel interventions, policies, and health systems improvements are urgently needed to fully engage mobile individuals in HIV care and prevention. Interventions targeting the HIV prevention and care needs of mobile populations remain few in number and urgently needed.

Early Adopters of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Preexposure Prophylaxis in a Population-based Combination Prevention Study in Rural Kenya and Uganda.

Background: Global guidelines recommend preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for individuals with substantial human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk. Data on PrEP uptake in sub-Saharan Africa outside of clinical trials are limited. We report on "early adopters" of PrEP in the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) study in rural Uganda and Kenya. Methods: After community mobilization and PrEP education, population-based HIV testing was conducted. HIV-uninfected adults were offered PrEP based on an empirically derived HIV risk score or self-identified HIV risk (if not identified by score). Using logistic regression, we analyzed predictors of early PrEP adoption (starting PrEP within 30 days vs delayed/no start) among adults identified for PrEP. Results: Of 21212 HIV-uninfected adults in 5 communities, 4064 were identified for PrEP (2991 by empiric risk score, 1073 by self-identified risk). Seven hundred and thirty nine individuals started PrEP within 30 days (11% of those identified by risk score; 39% of self-identified); 77% on the same day. Among adults identified by risk score, predictors of early adoption included male sex (adjusted odds ratio 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.15), polygamy (1.92; 1.27-2.90), serodiscordant spouse (3.89; 1.18-12.76), self-perceived HIV risk (1.66; 1.28-2.14), and testing at health campaign versus home (5.24; 3.33-8.26). Among individuals who self-identified for PrEP, predictors of early adoption included older age (2.30; 1.29-4.08) and serodiscordance (2.61; 1.01-6.76). Conclusions: Implementation of PrEP incorporating a population-based empiric risk score, self-identified risk, and rapid initiation, is feasible in rural East Africa. Strategies are needed to overcome barriers to PrEP uptake, particularly among women and youth. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT01864603.