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The forecasting of high-dimensional, spatiotemporal nonlinear systems has made tremendous progress with the advent of model-free machine learning techniques. However, in real systems it is not always possible to have all the information needed; only partial information is available for learning and forecasting. This can be due to insufficient temporal or spatial samplings, to inaccessible variables, or to noisy training data. Here, we show that it is nevertheless possible to forecast extreme event occurrences in incomplete experimental recordings from a spatiotemporally chaotic microcavity laser using reservoir computing. Selecting regions of maximum transfer entropy, we show that it is possible to get higher forecasting accuracy using nonlocal data vs local data, thus allowing greater warning times of at least twice the time horizon predicted from the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent.
Subject(s)
Lasers , Machine Learning , Forecasting , EntropyABSTRACT
Chains of coupled oscillators exhibit energy propagation by means of waves, pulses, and fronts. Nonreciprocal coupling radically modifies the wave dynamics of chains. Based on a prototype model of nonlinear chains with nonreciprocal coupling to nearest neighbors, we study nonlinear wave dynamics. Nonreciprocal coupling induces a convective instability between unstable and stable equilibrium. Increasing the coupling level, the chain presents a propagative pattern, a traveling wave. This emergent phenomenon corresponds to the self-assembly of localized structures. The pattern wavelength is characterized as a function of the coupling. Analytically, the phase diagram is determined and agrees with numerical simulations.
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Out of equilibrium systems under the influence of enough energy injection exhibit complex spatiotemporal behaviors. Based on a liquid crystal light valve experiment with translational optical feedback, we observe propagation, spatiotemporal intermittency, and defect turbulence of striped waves. A prototype model of pattern formation with translational coupling shows the same phenomenology. Close to the spatial instability, a local amplitude equation is derived. This amplitude equation allows us to reveal the origin and bifurcation diagram of the observed complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Experimental observations have a qualitative agreement with theoretical findings.
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The characterization of equilibria and their transition is fundamental in dynamic systems. Experimentally, the characterization of transitions is complex due to time scales separation, the effect of thermal fluctuations, and inherent experimental imperfections. Liquid crystal devices are derived from the manipulation of the molecular reorientation and transition between them by employing external electrical and magnetic fields. Here, we investigate and determine the Fréedericksz transition using hue measurements of the transmitted light in thin nematic liquid crystal cells. Based on birefringent retardation experienced by transmitted light due to molecular reorientation, the color adjustment of the nematic liquid crystal cells under white light illumination is characterized. By monitoring the hue of the transmitted light, the bifurcation diagram is determined. As a function of the voltage frequency, the critical transition voltage is characterized. The critical voltage increases with the applied frequency.
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A ring resonator made of a silica-based optical fiber is a paradigmatic system for the generation of dissipative localized structures or dissipative solitons. We analyze the effect of the non-instantaneous nonlinear response of the fused silica or the Raman response on the formation of localized structures. After reducing the generalized Lugiato-Lefever to a simple and generic bistable model with a nonlocal Raman effect, we investigate analytically the formation of moving temporal localized structures. This reduction is valid close to the nascent bistability regime, where the system undergoes a second-order critical point marking the onset of a hysteresis loop. The interaction between fronts allows for the stabilization of temporal localized structures. Without the Raman effect, moving temporal localized structures do not exist, as shown in M. G. Clerc, S. Coulibaly, and M. Tlidi, Phys. Rev. Res. 2, 013024 (2020). The detailed derivation of the speed and the width associated with these structures is presented. We characterize numerically in detail the bifurcation structure and stability associated with the moving temporal localized states. The numerical results of the governing equations are in close agreement with analytical predictions.
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Nonlinear pulse propagation is a major feature in continuously extended excitable systems. The persistence of this phenomenon in coupled excitable systems is expected. Here, we investigate theoretically the propagation of nonlinear pulses in a 1D array of evanescently coupled excitable semiconductor lasers. We show that the propagation of pulses is characterized by a hopping dynamics. The average pulse speed and bifurcation diagram are characterized as a function of the coupling strength between the lasers. Several instabilities are analyzed such as the onset and disappearance of pulse propagation and a spontaneous breaking of the translation symmetry. The pulse propagation modes evidenced are specific to the discrete nature of the 1D array of excitable lasers.
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Two-dimensional arrays of coupled waveguides or coupled microcavities allow us to confine and manipulate light. Based on a paradigmatic envelope equation, we show that these devices, subject to a coherent optical injection, support coexistence between a coherent and incoherent emission. In this regime, we show that two-dimensional chimera states can be generated. Depending on initial conditions, the system exhibits a family of two-dimensional chimera states and interaction between them. We characterize these two-dimensional structures by computing their Lyapunov spectrum and Yorke-Kaplan dimension. Finally, we show that two-dimensional chimera states are of spatiotemporal chaotic nature.
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We consider a generic interaction-redistribution model of vegetation dynamics to investigate the formation of patchy vegetation in semi-arid and arid landscapes. First, we perform a weakly nonlinear analysis in the neighborhood of the symmetry-breaking instability. Following this analysis, we construct the bifurcation diagram of the biomass density. The weakly nonlinear analysis allows us to establish the condition under which the transition from super- to subcritical symmetry-breaking instability takes place. Second, we generate a random distribution of localized patches of vegetation numerically. This behavior occurs in regimes where a bare state coexists with a uniform biomass density. Field observations allow to estimate the total biomass density and the range of facilitative and competitive interactions.
Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Models, Biological , BiomassABSTRACT
Homogeneously driven dynamical systems exhibit multistability. Depending on the initial conditions, fronts present a rich dynamical behavior between equilibria. Qualitatively, this phenomenology is persistent under spatially modulated forcing. However, the understanding of equilibria and front dynamics organization is not fully established. Here, we investigate these phenomena in the high-wavenumber limit. Based on a model that describes the reorientation transition of a liquid crystal light valve with spatially modulated optical forcing and the homogenization method, equilibria and fronts as a function of forcing parameters are studied. The forcing induces patterns coexisting with the uniform state in regions where the system without forcing is monostable. The front dynamics is characterized theoretically and numerically. Experimental results verify these phenomena and the law describing bistability, showing quite good agreement.
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Order-disorder phase transitions driven by temperature or light in soft matter materials exhibit complex dissipative structures. Here, we investigate the spatio-temporal phenomena induced by light in a dye-doped nematic liquid crystal layer. Experimentally, for planar anchoring of the nematic layer and high enough input power, photoisomerization processes induce a nematic-isotropic phase transition mediated by interface propagation between the two phases. In the case of a twisted nematic layer and for intermediate input power, the light induces a spatially modulated phase, which exhibits stripe patterns. The pattern originates as an instability mediated by interface propagation between the modulated and the homogeneous nematic states. Theoretically, the phase transition, emergence of stripe patterns and front dynamics are described on the basis of a proposed model for the dopant concentration coupled with the nematic order parameter. Numerical simulations show quite a fair agreement with the experimental observations.This article is part of the theme issue 'Dissipative structures in matter out of equilibrium: from chemistry, photonics and biology (part 2)'.
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We report for the first time on the formation of spirals like vegetation patterns in isotropic and uniform environmental conditions. The vegetation spirals are not waves and they do not rotate. They belong to the class of dissipative structures found out of equilibrium. Isolated or interacting spirals and arcs observed in South America (Bolivia) and North Africa (Morocco) are interpreted as a result of curvature instability that affects the circular shape of localized patches. The biomass exhibits a dynamical behaviour with arcs that transform into spirals. Interpretation of observations and of the predictions provided by the theory is illustrated by recent measurements of peculiar plant morphology (the alfa plant, or Stipa tenacissima L.) originated from northwestern Africa and the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula.This article is part of the theme issue 'Dissipative structures in matter out of equilibrium: from chemistry, photonics and biology (part 2)'.
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We consider a paradigmatic nonvariational scalar Swift-Hohenberg equation that describes short wavenumber or large wavelength pattern forming systems. This work unveils evidence of the transition from stable stationary to moving localized structures in one spatial dimension as a result of a parity breaking instability. This behavior is attributed to the nonvariational character of the model. We show that the nature of this transition is supercritical. We characterize analytically and numerically this bifurcation scenario from which emerges asymmetric moving localized structures. A generalization for two-dimensional settings is discussed.
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Coupled nonlinear oscillators can present complex spatiotemporal behaviors. Here, we report the coexistence of coherent and incoherent domains, called chimera states, in an array of identical Duffing oscillators coupled to their nearest neighbors. The chimera states show a significant variation of amplitude in the desynchronized domain. These intriguing states are observed in the bistability region between a homogeneous state and a spatiotemporal chaotic one. These dynamical behaviors are characterized by their Lyapunov spectra and their global phase coherence order parameter. The local coupling between oscillators prevents one domain from invading the other one. Depending on initial conditions, a family of chimera states appear, organized in a snaking-like diagram.
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Complex spatiotemporal dynamics have been a subject of recent experimental investigations in optical frequency comb microresonators and in driven fiber cavities with Kerr-type media. We show that this complex behavior has a spatiotemporal chaotic nature. We determine numerically the Lyapunov spectra, allowing us to characterize different dynamical behavior occurring in these simple devices. The Yorke-Kaplan dimension is used as an order parameter to characterize the bifurcation diagram. We identify a wide regime of parameters where the system exhibits a coexistence between the spatiotemporal chaos, the oscillatory localized structure, and the homogeneous steady state. The destabilization of an oscillatory localized state through radiation of counter-propagating fronts between the homogeneous and the spatiotemporal chaotic states is analyzed. To characterize better the spatiotemporal chaos, we estimate the front speed as a function of the pump intensity.
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We consider coupled-waveguide resonators subject to optical injection. The dynamics of this simple device are described by the discrete Lugiato-Lefever equation. We show that chimera-like states can be stabilized, thanks to the discrete nature of the coupled-waveguide resonators. Such chaotic localized structures are unstable in the continuous Lugiato-Lefever model; this is because of dispersive radiation from the tails of localized structures in the form of two counter-propagating fronts between the homogeneous and the complex spatiotemporal state. We characterize the formation of chimera-like states by computing the Lyapunov spectra. We show that localized states have an intermittent spatiotemporal chaotic dynamical nature. These states are generated in a parameter regime characterized by a coexistence between a uniform steady state and a spatiotemporal intermittency state.
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The self-assembly of amphiphilic molecules usually takes place in a liquid phase, near room temperature. Here, using small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments performed in real time, we show that freezing of aqueous solutions of copolymer amphiphilic molecules can induce self-assembly below 0 °C.
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Extreme events such as rogue waves in optics and fluids are often associated with the merging dynamics of coherent structures. We present experimental and numerical results on the physics of extreme event appearance in a spatially extended semiconductor microcavity laser with an intracavity saturable absorber. This system can display deterministic irregular dynamics only, thanks to spatial coupling through diffraction of light. We have identified parameter regions where extreme events are encountered and established the origin of this dynamics in the emergence of deterministic spatiotemporal chaos, through the correspondence between the proportion of extreme events and the dimension of the strange attractor.
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OBJECTIVES: This work aims to provide staff accreditation methodology to harmonize and secure practices for parenteral nutrition bags preparation. METHODS: The methodology used in the present study is inspired from project management and quality approach. Existing training supports were used to produce accreditation procedure and evaluation supports. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We first defined abilities levels, from level 1, corresponding to accredited learning agent to level 3, corresponding to expert accredited agent. Elements assessed for accreditation are: clothing assessment either by practices audit or by microbiologic test, test bags preparation and handling assessment, bag production to assess aseptic filling for both manual or automatized method, practices audit, number of days of production, and non-conformity following. At Angers Hospital, in 2014, production staff is composed of 12 agents. Staff accreditation reveals that 2 agents achieve level 3, 8 agents achieve level 2 and 2 agents are level 1. We noted that non-conformity decreased as accreditation took place from 81 in 2009 to 0 in 2014. CONCLUSION: To date, there is no incident due to parenteral bag produced by Angers hospital for neonatal resuscitation children. Such a consistent study is essential to insure a secured nutrition parenteral production. This also provides a satisfying quality care for patients.
Subject(s)
Accreditation , Parenteral Nutrition Solutions/standards , Parenteral Nutrition/methods , Parenteral Nutrition/standards , Personnel, Hospital/standards , Pharmacy Service, Hospital/organization & administration , Pharmacy Service, Hospital/standards , Drug Compounding/standards , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Quality Control , ResuscitationABSTRACT
Understanding patterns of influenza spread and persistence is crucial for pandemic preparedness. The H1N1pdm09 virus caused the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century which resulted in at least 18500 deaths. Based on laboratory-confirmed primary-care case reports we investigated the role of weather conditions and socio-demographic variables in its initial spread and subsequent presence in France. Our findings suggest that low relative humidity and high population density were determinants in shaping the early spread of the virus at the national level. Those conditions also favoured the persistence of viral presence throughout the first 33 weeks of the pandemic. Additionally this persistence was significantly favoured by low insolation. These results confirm the increasingly recognized role of humidity in influenza dynamics and underlie the concomitant effect of insolation. Therefore climatic factors should be taken into account when designing influenza control and prevention measures.
Subject(s)
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/virology , Meteorological Concepts , Pandemics , Demography , France/epidemiology , Humans , Socioeconomic FactorsABSTRACT
An experimental study of the photo-isomerization dynamics in dye-doped nematic crystals is reported, which shows that, when the sample is illuminated by a Gaussian beam, and for high enough input power, a transition from the nematic to the isotropic phase takes place in the illuminated area. The two phases are spatially connected via a front propagating outward from the center of the beam and following the local intensity profile and thus inducing a photo-controlled optical aperture. The optical intensity and temperature fields on the sample follow the same dynamical profile. The front dynamics is described by a phenomenological bi-stable model with an inhomogeneous control parameter, directly related to the beam intensity profile.