Multiple forms of perceived job discrimination and hypertension risk among employed women: Findings from the Sister Study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension has been linked to socially patterned stressors, including discrimination. Few studies have quantified the risk of hypertension associated with exposure to perceived job discrimination. METHODS: We used prospective cohort data from the Sister Study (enrollment from 2003-2009) to estimate self-reported incident hypertension associated with perceived job discrimination based on race, gender, age, sexual orientation, or health status. Job discrimination in the prior 5 years was assessed in 2008-2012, and incident doctor-diagnosed hypertension was ascertained in previously hypertension-free participants. RESULTS: Among the 16,770 eligible participants aged 37-78 years at the start of follow-up, 10.5% reported job discrimination in the past 5 years, and 19.2% (n = 3226) reported incident hypertension during a median follow-up of 9.7 years (interquartile range 8.2-11.0 years). Self-reported poor health or inclusion in minoritized groups based on race/ethnicity or sexual orientation were more frequent among those reporting job discrimination. In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for covariates, report of at least one type of job discrimination (compared to none) was associated with a 14% (hazard ratio = 1.14 [95% confidence: 1.02-1.27]) higher hypertension risk. Results from sensitivity analyses reinforced the findings. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that interventions addressing job discrimination could have workplace equity and health benefits.

Understanding integrated service delivery: a scoping review of models for noncommunicable disease and mental health interventions in low-and-middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions represent a growing proportion of disease burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While past efforts have identified interventions to be delivered across health system levels to address this burden, the challenge remains of how to deliver heterogenous interventions in resource-constrained settings. One possible solution is the Integration of interventions within existing care delivery models. This study reviews and summarizes published literature on models of integrated NCD and mental health care in LMICs. METHODS: We searched Pubmed, African Index Medicus and reference lists to conduct a scoping review of studies describing an integrated model of NCD or neuropsychiatric conditions (NPs) implemented in a LMIC. Conditions of interest were grouped into common and severe NCDs and NPs. We identified domains of interest and types of service integration, conducting a narrative synthesis of study types. Studies were screened and characteristics were extracted for all relevant studies. Results are reported using PRISMA-ScR. RESULTS: Our search yielded 5004 studies, we included 219 models of integration from 188 studies. Most studies were conducted in middle-income countries, with the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Health services were offered across all health system levels, with most models implemented at health centers. Common NCDs (including type 2 diabetes and hypertension) were most frequently addressed by these models, followed by common NPs (including depression and anxiety). Conditions and/or services were often integrated into existing primary healthcare, HIV, maternal and child health programs. Services provided for conditions of interest varied and frequency of these services differed across health system levels. Many models demonstrated decentralization of services to lower health system levels, and task shifting to lower cadre providers. CONCLUSIONS: While integrated service design is a promising method to achieve ambitious global goals, little is known about what works, when, and why. This review characterizing care integration programs is an initial step toward developing a structured study of care integration.

Realigning noncommunicable disease monitoring with health systems priorities in the Africa region.

The African region of the World Health Organization (WHO) recently adopted a strategy aimed at more comprehensive care for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in the region. The WHO's World Health Assembly has also newly approved several ambitious disease-specific targets that raise the expectations of chronic care and plans to revise and update the NCD-Global Action Plan. These actions provide a critically needed opportunity for reflection and course correction in the global health response to NCDs. In this paper, we highlight the status of the indicators that are currently used to monitor progress towards global goals for chronic care. We argue that weak health systems and lack of access to basic NCD medicines and technologies have prevented many countries from achieving the level of progress required by the NCD epidemic, and current targets do little to address this reality. We identify gaps in existing metrics and explore opportunities to realign the targets with the pressing priorities facing today's health systems.

Maternal mortality ratios in 2852 Chinese counties, 1996-2015, and achievement of Millennium Development Goal 5 in China: a subnational analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: As one of only a handful of countries that have achieved both Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5, China has substantially lowered maternal mortality in the past two decades. Little is known, however, about the levels and trends of maternal mortality at the county level in China. METHODS: Using a national registration system of maternal mortality at the county level, we estimated the maternal mortality ratios for 2852 counties in China between 1996 and 2015. We used a state-of-the-art Bayesian small-area estimation hierarchical model with latent Gaussian layers to account for space and time correlations among neighbouring counties. Estimates at the county level were then scaled to be consistent with country-level estimates of maternal mortality for China, which were separately estimated from multiple data sources. We also assessed maternal mortality ratios among ethnic minorities in China and computed Gini coefficients of inequality of maternal mortality ratios at the country and provincial levels. FINDINGS: China as a country has experienced fast decline in maternal mortality ratios, from 108·7 per 100 000 livebirths in 1996 to 21·8 per 100 000 livebirths in 2015, with an annualised rate of decline of 8·5% per year, which is much faster than the target pace in MDG 5. However, we found substantial heterogeneity in levels and trends at the county level. In 1996, the range of maternal mortality ratios by county was 16·8 per 100 000 livebirths in Shantou, Guangdong, to 3510·3 per 100 000 livebirths in Zanda County, Tibet. Almost all counties showed remarkable decline in maternal mortality ratios in the two decades regardless of those in 1996. The annualised rate of decline across counties from 1996 to 2015 ranges from 4·4% to 12·9%, and 2838 (99·5%) of the 2852 counties had achieved the MDG 5 pace of decline. Decline accelerated between 2005 and 2015 compared with between 1996 and 2005. In 2015, the lowest county-level maternal mortality ratio was 3·4 per 100 000 livebirths in Nanhu District, Zhejiang Province. The highest was still in Zanda County, Tibet, but the fall to 830·5 per 100 000 livebirths was only 76·3%. 26 ethnic groups had population majorities in at least one county in China, and all had achieved declines in maternal mortality ratios in line with the pace of MDG 5. Intercounty Gini coefficients for maternal mortality ratio have declined at the national level in China, indicating improved equality, whereas trends in inequality at the provincial level varied. INTERPRETATION: In the past two decades, maternal mortality ratios have reduced rapidly and universally across China at the county level. Fast improvement in maternal mortality ratios is possible even in less economically developed places with resource constraints. This finding has important implications for improving maternal mortality ratios in developing countries in the Sustainable Development Goal era. FUNDING: National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China, China Medical Board, WHO, University of Washington Center for Demography and Economics of Aging, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping Plasmodium falciparum Mortality in Africa between 1990 and 2015.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control has not been routinely informed by the assessment of subnational variation in malaria deaths. We combined data from the Malaria Atlas Project and the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate malaria mortality across sub-Saharan Africa on a grid of 5 km2 from 1990 through 2015. METHODS: We estimated malaria mortality using a spatiotemporal modeling framework of geolocated data (i.e., with known latitude and longitude) on the clinical incidence of malaria, coverage of antimalarial drug treatment, case fatality rate, and population distribution according to age. RESULTS: Across sub-Saharan Africa during the past 15 years, we estimated that there was an overall decrease of 57% (95% uncertainty interval, 46 to 65) in the rate of malaria deaths, from 12.5 (95% uncertainty interval, 8.3 to 17.0) per 10,000 population in 2000 to 5.4 (95% uncertainty interval, 3.4 to 7.9) in 2015. This led to an overall decrease of 37% (95% uncertainty interval, 36 to 39) in the number of malaria deaths annually, from 1,007,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 666,000 to 1,376,000) to 631,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 394,000 to 914,000). The share of malaria deaths among children younger than 5 years of age ranged from more than 80% at a rate of death of more than 25 per 10,000 to less than 40% at rates below 1 per 10,000. Areas with high malaria mortality (>10 per 10,000) and low coverage (<50%) of insecticide-treated bed nets and antimalarial drugs included much of Nigeria, Angola, and Cameroon and parts of the Central African Republic, Congo, Guinea, and Equatorial Guinea. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that there was an overall decrease of 57% in the rate of death from malaria across sub-Saharan Africa over the past 15 years and identified several countries in which high rates of death were associated with low coverage of antimalarial treatment and prevention programs. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).

Under-5 mortality in 2851 Chinese counties, 1996-2012: a subnational assessment of achieving MDG 4 goals in China.

BACKGROUND: In the past two decades, the under-5 mortality rate in China has fallen substantially, but progress with regards to the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 at the subnational level has not been quantified. We aimed to estimate under-5 mortality rates in mainland China for the years 1970 to 2012. METHODS: We estimated the under-5 mortality rate for 31 provinces in mainland China between 1970 and 2013 with data from censuses, surveys, surveillance sites, and disease surveillance points. We estimated under-5 mortality rates for 2851 counties in China from 1996 to 2012 with the reported child mortality numbers from the Annual Report System on Maternal and Child Health. We used a small area mortality estimation model, spatiotemporal smoothing, and Gaussian process regression to synthesise data and generate consistent provincial and county-level estimates. We compared progress at the county level with what was expected on the basis of income and educational attainment using an econometric model. We computed Gini coefficients to study the inequality of under-5 mortality rates across counties. FINDINGS: In 2012, the lowest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was about five per 1000 livebirths, lower than in Canada, New Zealand, and the USA. The highest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was higher than that of Bangladesh. 29 provinces achieved a decrease in under-5 mortality rates twice as fast as the MDG 4 target rate; only two provinces will not achieve MDG 4 by 2015. Although some counties in China have under-5 mortality rates similar to those in the most developed nations in 2012, some have similar rates to those recorded in Burkina Faso and Cameroon. Despite wide differences, the inter-county Gini coefficient has been decreasing. Improvement in maternal education and the economic boom have contributed to the fall in child mortality; more than 60% of the counties in China had rates of decline in under-5 mortality rates significantly faster than expected. Fast reduction in under-5 mortality rates have been recorded not only in the Han population, the dominant ethnic majority in China, but also in the minority populations. All top ten minority groups in terms of population sizes have experienced annual reductions in under-5 mortality rates faster than the MDG 4 target at 4.4%. INTERPRETATION: The reduction of under-5 mortality rates in China at the country, provincial, and county level is an extraordinary success story. Reductions of under-5 mortality rates faster than 8.8% (twice MDG 4 pace) are possible. Extremely rapid declines seem to be related to public policy in addition to socioeconomic progress. Lessons from successful counties should prove valuable for China to intensify efforts for those with unacceptably high under-5 mortality rates. FUNDING: National "Twelfth Five-Year" Plan for Science and Technology Support, National Health and Family Planning Commission of The People's Republic of China, Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University, the National Institute on Aging, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cause-specific mortality for 240 causes in China during 1990-2013: a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: China has experienced a remarkable epidemiological and demographic transition during the past three decades. Far less is known about this transition at the subnational level. Timely and accurate assessment of the provincial burden of disease is needed for evidence-based priority setting at the local level in China. METHODS: Following the methods of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we have systematically analysed all available demographic and epidemiological data sources for China at the provincial level. We developed methods to aggregate county-level surveillance data to inform provincial-level analysis, and we used local data to develop specific garbage code redistribution procedures for China. We assessed levels of and trends in all-cause mortality, causes of death, and years of life lost (YLL) in all 33 province-level administrative units in mainland China, all of which we refer to as provinces, for the years between 1990 and 2013. FINDINGS: All provinces in mainland China have made substantial strides to improve life expectancy at birth between 1990 and 2013. Increases ranged from 4.0 years in Hebei province to 14.2 years in Tibet. Improvements in female life expectancy exceeded those in male life expectancy in all provinces except Shanghai, Macao, and Hong Kong. We saw significant heterogeneity among provinces in life expectancy at birth and probability of death at ages 0-14, 15-49, and 50-74 years. Such heterogeneity is also present in cause of death structures between sexes and provinces. From 1990 to 2013, leading causes of YLLs changed substantially. In 1990, 16 of 33 provinces had lower respiratory infections or preterm birth complications as the leading causes of YLLs. 15 provinces had cerebrovascular disease and two (Hong Kong and Macao) had ischaemic heart disease. By 2013, 27 provinces had cerebrovascular disease as the leading cause, five had ischaemic heart disease, and one had lung cancer (Hong Kong). Road injuries have become a top ten cause of death in all provinces in mainland China. The most common non-communicable diseases, including ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and cancers (liver, stomach, and lung), contributed much more to YLLs in 2013 compared with 1990. INTERPRETATION: Rapid transitions are occurring across China, but the leading health problems and the challenges imposed on the health system by epidemiological and demographic change differ between groups of Chinese provinces. Localised health policies need to be implemented to tackle the diverse challenges faced by local health-care systems. FUNDING: China National Science & Technology Pillar Program 2013 (2013BAI04B02) and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0-5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9-76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9-81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3-43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9-27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1-2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7-41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1-12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4-12·0]). INTERPRETATION: Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disease burden attributed to alcohol: How methodological advances in the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study have changed the estimates in Sweden.

AIM: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study continuously refines its estimates as new data and methods become available. In the latest iteration of the study, GBD 2013, changes were made related to the disease burden attributed to alcohol. The aim of this study was to briefly present these changes and to compare the disease burden attributed to alcohol in Swedish men and women in 2010 using previous and updated methods. METHODS: In the GBD study, the contribution of alcohol to the burden of disease is estimated by theoretically assessing how much of the disease burden can be avoided by reducing the consumption of alcohol to zero. The updated methods mainly consider improved measurements of alcohol consumption, including less severe alcohol dependence, assigning the most severe injuries and removing the protective effect of drinking on cardiovascular diseases if combined with binge drinking. RESULTS: The overall disease burden attributed to alcohol in 2010 increased by 14% when using the updated methods. Women accounted for this overall increase, mainly because the updated methods led to an overall higher alcohol consumption in women. By contrast, the overall burden decreased in men, one reason being the lower overall alcohol consumption with the new methods. In men, the inclusion of less severe alcohol dependence resulted in a large decrease in the alcohol attributed disease burden. This was, however, evened out to a great extent by the increase in cardiovascular disease and injuries. CONCLUSIONS WHEN USING THE UPDATED GBD METHODS, THE OVERALL DISEASE BURDEN ATTRIBUTED TO ALCOHOL INCREASED IN WOMEN, BUT NOT IN MEN.

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Service readiness for the management of non-communicable diseases in publicly financed facilities in Malawi: findings from the 2019 Harmonised Health Facility Assessment census survey.

INTRODUCTION: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rising in low-income and middle-income countries, including Malawi. To inform policy-makers and planners on the preparedness of the Malawian healthcare system to respond to NCDs, we estimated NCD service readiness in publicly financed healthcare facilities in Malawi. METHODS: We analysed data from 564 facilities surveyed in the 2019 Harmonised Health Facility Assessment, including 512 primary healthcare (PHC) and 52 secondary and tertiary care (STC) facilities. To characterise service readiness, applying the law of minimum, we estimated the percentage of facilities with functional equipment and unexpired medicines required to provide NCD services. Further, we estimated permanently unavailable items to identify service readiness bottlenecks. RESULTS: Fewer than 40% of PHC facilities were ready to deliver services for each of the 14 NCDs analysed. Insulin and beclomethasone inhalers had the lowest stock levels at PHC facilities (6% and 8%, respectively). Only 17% of rural and community hospitals (RCHs) have liver and kidney diagnostics. STC facilities had varying service readiness, ranging from 27% for managing acute diabetes complications to 94% for chronic type 2 diabetes management. Only 38% of STC facilities were ready to manage chronic heart failure. Oral pain medicines were widely available at all levels of health facilities; however, only 22% of RCHs and 29% of STCs had injectable morphine or pethidine. Beclomethasone was never available at 74% of PHC and 29% of STC facilities. CONCLUSION: Publicly financed facilities in Malawi are generally unprepared to provide NCD services, especially at the PHC level. Targeted investments in PHC can substantially improve service readiness for chronic NCD conditions in local communities and enable STC to respond to acute NCD complications and more complex NCD cases.

Feasibility of continuous glucose monitoring in patients with type 1 diabetes at two district hospitals in Neno, Malawi: a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility and change in clinical outcomes associated with continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) use among a rural population in Malawi living with type 1 diabetes. DESIGN: A 2:1 open randomised controlled feasibility trial. SETTING: Two Partners In Health-supported Ministry of Health-run first-level district hospitals in Neno, Malawi. PARTICIPANTS: 45 people living with type 1 diabetes (PLWT1D). INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomly assigned to Dexcom G6 CGM (n=30) use or usual care (UC) (n=15) consisting of Safe-Accu glucose monitors and strips. Both arms received diabetes education. OUTCOMES: Primary outcomes included fidelity, appropriateness and severe adverse events. Secondary outcomes included change in haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), acceptability, time in range (CGM arm only) SD of HbA1c and quality of life. RESULTS: Participants tolerated CGM well but were unable to change their own sensors which resulted in increased clinic visits in the CGM arm. Despite the hot climate, skin rashes were uncommon but cut-out tape overpatches were needed to secure the sensors in place. Participants in the CGM arm had greater numbers of dose adjustments and lifestyle change suggestions than those in the UC arm. Participants in the CGM arm wore their CGM on average 63.8% of the time. Participants in the UC arm brought logbooks to clinic 75% of the time. There were three hospitalisations all in the CGM arm, but none were related to the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first randomised controlled trial conducted on CGM in a rural region of a low-income country. CGM was feasible and appropriate among PLWT1D and providers, but inability of participants to change their own sensors is a challenge. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PACTR202102832069874.

Protocol for an evaluation of the initiation of an integrated longitudinal outpatient care model for severe chronic non-communicable diseases (PEN-Plus) at secondary care facilities (district hospitals) in 10 lower-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: The Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Interventions-Plus (PEN-Plus) is a strategy decentralising care for severe non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including type 1 diabetes, rheumatic heart disease and sickle cell disease, to increase access to care. In the PEN-Plus model, mid-level clinicians in intermediary facilities in low and lower middle income countries are trained to provide integrated care for conditions where services traditionally were only available at tertiary referral facilities. For the upcoming phase of activities, 18 first-level hospitals in 9 countries and 1 state in India were selected for PEN-Plus expansion and will treat a variety of severe NCDs. Over 3 years, the countries and state are expected to: (1) establish PEN-Plus clinics in one or two district hospitals, (2) support these clinics to mature into training sites in preparation for national or state-level scale-up, and (3) work with the national or state-level stakeholders to describe, measure and advocate for PEN-Plus to support development of a national operational plan for scale-up. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Guided by Proctor outcomes for implementation research, we are conducting a mixed-method evaluation consisting of 10 components to understand outcomes in clinical implementation, training and policy development. Data will be collected through a mix of quantitative surveys, routine reporting, routine clinical data and qualitative interviews. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol has been considered exempt or covered by central and local institutional review boards. Findings will be disseminated throughout the project's course, including through quarterly M&E discussions, semiannual formative assessments, dashboard mapping of progress, quarterly newsletters, regular feedback loops with national stakeholders and publication in peer-reviewed journals.

Health system capacity to manage diabetic ketoacidosis in nine low-income and lower-middle income countries: A cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative survey data.

Background: There has been increasing awareness about the importance of type 1 diabetes (T1D) globally. Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is a life-threatening complication of T1D in low-income settings. Little is known about health system capacity to manage DKA in low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs). As such, we describe health system capacity to diagnose and manage DKA across nine LLMICs using data from Service Provision Assessments. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we used data from Service Provision Assessment (SPA) surveys, which are part of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) Program. We defined an item set to diagnose and manage DKA in higher-level (tertiary or secondary) facilities, and a set to assess and refer patients presenting to lower-level (primary) facilities. We quantified each item's availability by service level in Bangladesh (Survey 1: May 22 2014-Jul 20 2014; Survey 2: Jul 2017-Oct 2017), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (Oct 16 2017-Nov 24 2017 in Kinshasha; Aug 08 2018-Apr 20 2018 in rest of country), Haiti (Survey 1: Mar 05 2013-Jul 2013; Survey 2: Dec 16 2017-May 09 2018), Ethiopia (Feb 06 2014-Mar 09 2014), Malawi (Phase 1: Jun 11 2013-Aug 20 2013; Phase 2: Nov 13 2013-Feb 7 2014), Nepal (Phase 1: Apr 20 2015-Apr 25 2015; Phase 2: Jun 04 2015-Nov 05 2015), Senegal (Survey 1: Jan 2014-Oct 2014; Survey 2: Feb 09 2015-Nov 10 2015; Survey 3: Feb 2016-Nov 2016; Survey 4: Mar 13 2017-Dec 15 2017; Survey 5: Apr 15 2018-Dec 31 2018; Survey 6: Apr 15 2019-Feb 28 2020), Tanzania (Oct 20 2014-Feb 21 2015), and Afghanistan (Nov 1 2018-Jan 20 2019). Variation in secondary facilities' capacity and trends over time were also explored. Findings: We examined data from 2028 higher-level and 7534 lower-level facilities. Of these, 1874 higher-level and 6636 lower-level facilities' data were eligible for analysis. Availability of all item sets were low at higher-level facilities, where less than 50% had the minimal set of supplies, less than 20% had the full minimal set, and less than 15% had the ideal set needed to diagnose and manage DKA. Across countries in lower-level facilities, less than 14% had the minimal set of supplies and less than 9% the full set of supplies for diagnosis and transfer of DKA patients. No country had more than 20% of facilities with the minimal set of items needed to assess or manage DKA. Where data were available for more than one survey (Bangladesh, Senegal, and Haiti), changes in availability of the minimal set and ideal set of items did not exceed 15%. Tertiary facilities performed best in Haiti, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nepal, Senegal, Tanzania, and Afghanistan. Secondary facilities that were rural, public, and had fewer staff had lower capacity. Interpretation: Health system capacity to manage DKA was low across these nine LLMICs. Although efforts are underway to strengthen health systems, a specific focus on DKA management is still needed. Funding: Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust, and Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation Ltd.

An investment case for the prevention and management of rheumatic heart disease in the African Union 2021-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Despite declines in deaths from rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in Africa over the past 30 years, it remains a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality on the continent. We present an investment case for interventions to prevent and manage RHD in the African Union (AU). METHODS: We created a cohort state-transition model to estimate key outcomes in the disease process, including cases of pharyngitis from group A streptococcus, episodes of acute rheumatic fever (ARF), cases of RHD, heart failure, and deaths. With this model, we estimated the impact of scaling up interventions using estimates of effect sizes from published studies. We estimated the cost to scale up coverage of interventions and summarised the benefits by monetising health gains estimated in the model using a full income approach. Costs and benefits were compared using the benefit-cost ratio and the net benefits with discounted costs and benefits. FINDINGS: Operationally achievable levels of scale-up of interventions along the disease spectrum, including primary prevention, secondary prevention, platforms for management of heart failure, and heart valve surgery could avert 74 000 (UI 50 000-104 000) deaths from RHD and ARF from 2021 to 2030 in the AU, reaching a 30·7% (21·6-39·0) reduction in the age-standardised death rate from RHD in 2030, compared with no increase in coverage of interventions. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for plausible scale-up of secondary prevention and secondary and tertiary care interventions was 4·7 (2·9-6·3) with a net benefit of $2·8 billion (1·6-3·9; 2019 US$) through 2030. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for primary prevention scale-up was low to 2030 (0·2, <0·1-0·4), increasing with delayed benefits accrued to 2090. The benefit-cost dynamics of primary prevention were sensitive to the costs of different delivery approaches, uncertain epidemiological parameters regarding group A streptococcal pharyngitis and ARF, assumptions about long-term demographic and economic trends, and discounting. INTERPRETATION: Increased coverage of interventions to control and manage RHD could accelerate progress towards eradication in AU member states. Gaps in local epidemiological data and particular components of the disease process create uncertainty around the level of benefits. In the short term, costs of secondary prevention and secondary and tertiary care for RHD are lower than for primary prevention, and benefits accrue earlier. FUNDING: World Heart Federation, Leona M and Harry B Helmsley Charitable Trust, and American Heart Association.

Burden of disease among the world's poorest billion people: An expert-informed secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease estimates.

BACKGROUND: The health of populations living in extreme poverty has been a long-standing focus of global development efforts, and continues to be a priority during the Sustainable Development Goal era. However, there has not been a systematic attempt to quantify the magnitude and causes of the burden in this specific population for almost two decades. We estimated disease rates by cause for the world's poorest billion and compared these rates to those in high-income populations. METHODS: We defined the population in extreme poverty using a multidimensional poverty index. We used national-level disease burden estimates from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study and adjusted these to account for within-country variation in rates. To adjust for within-country variation, we looked to the relationship between rates of extreme poverty and disease rates across countries. In our main modeling approach, we used these relationships when there was consistency with expert opinion from a survey we conducted of disease experts regarding the associations between household poverty and the incidence and fatality of conditions. Otherwise, no within-country variation was assumed. We compared results across multiple approaches for estimating the burden in the poorest billion, including aggregating national-level burden from the countries with the highest poverty rates. We examined the composition of the estimated disease burden among the poorest billion and made comparisons with estimates for high-income countries. RESULTS: The composition of disease burden among the poorest billion, as measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), was 65% communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, 29% non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and 6% injuries. Age-standardized DALY rates from NCDs were 44% higher in the poorest billion (23,583 DALYs per 100,000) compared to high-income regions (16,344 DALYs per 100,000). Age-standardized DALY rates were 2,147% higher for CMNN conditions (32,334 DALYs per 100,000) and 86% higher for injuries (4,182 DALYs per 100,000) in the poorest billion, compared to high-income regions. CONCLUSION: The disease burden among the poorest people globally compared to that in high income countries is highly influenced by demographics as well as large disparities in burden from many conditions. The comparisons show that the largest disparities remain in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases, though NCDs and injuries are an important part of the "unfinished agenda" of poor health among those living in extreme poverty.

Noncommunicable Disease (NCD) strategic plans in low- and lower-middle income Sub-Saharan Africa: framing and policy response.

BACKGROUND: Global efforts to address NCDs focus primarily on 4-by-4 interventions - interventions to prevent and treat four groups of conditions affecting mainly older adults (some cardiovascular disease and cancers, type 2 diabetes, chronic respiratory disease) and four associated risk factors (alcohol, tobacco, poor diets, and physical inactivity). However, the NCD burden in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is composed of a more diverse set of conditions, driven by a more complex group of risks, and impacting all segments of the population. OBJECTIVE: To document the NCD priorities identified by NCD strategic plans, to characterize the proposed policy response, and to assess the alignment between the two. METHODS: Using a two-part conceptual framework, we undertook a descriptive study to characterize the framing and overall policy response of strategic plans from 24 low- and lower-middle-income countries across SSA. RESULTS: The national situation assessments that ground strategic plans emphasize a diversity of conditions that range in terms of severity and frequency. These assessments also highlight a wide diversity of factors that shape this burden. Most include discussions of a broad range of behavioral, structural, genetic, and infectious risk factors. Plans endorse a more narrow response to this diverse burden, with a focus on primary and secondary prevention that is generally convergent with the objectives established in global policy documents. CONCLUSIONS: Broadly, we observe that plans developed by countries in SSA recognize the heterogeneity of the NCD burden in this region. However, they emphasize interventions that are consistent with global strategies focused on preventing a narrower set of cardiometabolic risk factors and their associated diseases. In comparison, relatively few countries detail plans to prevent, treat, and palliate the full scope of the needs they identify. There is a need for increased support for bottom-up planning efforts to address local priorities.

Estimating Health Adjusted Age at Death (HAAD).

OBJECTIVES: At any point in time, a person's lifetime health is the number of healthy life years they are expected to experience during their lifetime. In this article we propose an equity-relevant health metric, Health Adjusted Age at Death (HAAD), that facilitates comparison of lifetime health for individuals at the onset of different medical conditions, and allows for the assessment of which patient groups are worse off. A method for estimating HAAD is presented, and we use this method to rank four conditions in six countries according to several criteria of "worse off" as a proof of concept. METHODS: For individuals with specific conditions HAAD consists of two components: past health (before disease onset) and future expected health (after disease onset). Four conditions (acute myeloid leukemia (AML), acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL), schizophrenia, and epilepsy) are analysed in six countries (Ethiopia, Haiti, China, Mexico, United States and Japan). Data from 2017 for all countries and for all diseases were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study database. In order to assess who are the worse off, we focus on four measures: the proportion of affected individuals who are expected to have HAAD<20 (T20), the 25th and 75th percentiles of HAAD for affected individuals (Q1 and Q3, respectively), and the average HAAD (aHAAD) across all affected individuals. RESULTS: Even in settings where aHAAD is similar for two conditions, other measures may vary. One example is AML (aHAAD = 59.3, T20 = 2.0%, Q3-Q1 = 14.8) and ALL (58.4, T20 = 4.6%, Q3-Q1 = 21.8) in the US. Many illnesses, such as epilepsy, are associated with more lifetime health in high-income settings (Q1 in Japan = 59.2) than in low-income settings (Q1 in Ethiopia = 26.3). CONCLUSION: Using HAAD we may estimate the distribution of lifetime health of all individuals in a population, and this distribution can be incorporated as an equity consideration in setting priorities for health interventions.