Physical work exposure matrix for use in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: UK Biobank (UKB) is a large prospective cohort capturing numerous health outcomes, but limited occupational information (job title, self-reported manual work and occupational walking/standing). AIMS: To create and evaluate validity of a linkage between UKB and a job exposure matrix for physical work exposures based on the US Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database. METHODS: Job titles and UK Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes were collected during UKB baseline assessment visits. Using existing crosswalks, UK SOC codes were mapped to US SOC codes allowing linkage to O*NET variables capturing numerous dimensions of physical work. Job titles with the highest O*NET scores were assessed to evaluate face validity. Spearman's correlation coefficients were calculated to compare O*NET scores to self-reported UKB measures. RESULTS: Among 324 114 participants reporting job titles, 323 936 were linked to O*NET. Expected relationships between scores and self-reported measures were observed. For static strength (0-7 scale), the median O*NET score was 1.0 (e.g. audiologists), with a highest score of 4.88 for stone masons and a positive correlation with self-reported heavy manual work (Spearman's coefficient = 0.50). For time spent standing (1-5 scale), the median O*NET score was 2.72 with a highest score of 5 for cooks and a positive correlation with self-reported occupational walking/standing (Spearman's coefficient = 0.56). CONCLUSIONS: While most jobs were not physically demanding, a wide range of physical work values were assigned to a diverse set of jobs. This novel linkage of a job exposure matrix to UKB provides a potentially valuable tool for understanding relationships between occupational exposures and disease.

Body size throughout the life-course and incident benign prostatic hyperplasia-related outcomes and nocturia.

BACKGROUND: Existing evidence suggests that there is an association between body size and prevalent Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH)-related outcomes and nocturia. However, there is limited evidence on the association between body size throughout the life-course and incident BPH-related outcomes. METHODS: Our study population consisted of men without histories of prostate cancer, BPH-related outcomes, or nocturia in the intervention arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) (n = 4710). Associations for body size in early- (age 20), mid- (age 50) and late-life (age ≥ 55, mean age 60.7 years) and weight change with incident BPH-related outcomes (including self-reported nocturia and physician diagnosis of BPH, digital rectal examination-estimated prostate volume ≥ 30 cc, and prostate-specific antigen [PSA] concentration > 1.4 ng/mL) were examined using Poisson regression with robust variance estimation. RESULTS: Men who were obese in late-life were 25% more likely to report nocturia (Relative Risk (RR): 1.25, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.11-1.40; p-trendfor continuous BMI < 0.0001) and men who were either overweight or obese in late-life were more likely to report a prostate volume ≥ 30 cc (RRoverweight: 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.21; RRobese: 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19; p-trendfor continuous BMI = 0.017) as compared to normal weight men. Obesity at ages 20 and 50 was similarly associated with both nocturia and prostate volume ≥ 30 cc. Considering trajectories of body size, men who were normal weight at age 20 and became overweight or obese by later-life had increased risks of nocturia (RRnormal to overweight: 1.09, 95% CI 0.98-1.22; RRnormal to obese: 1.28, 95% CI 1.10-1.47) and a prostate volume ≥ 30 cc (RRnormal to overweight: 1.12, 95% CI 1.05-1.20). Too few men were obese early in life to examine the independent effect of early-life body size. Later-life body size modified the association between physical activity and nocturia. CONCLUSIONS: We found that later-life body size, independent of early-life body size, was associated with adverse BPH outcomes, suggesting that interventions to reduce body size even late in life can potentially reduce the burden of BPH-related outcomes and nocturia.

A candidate gene approach to searching for low-penetrance breast and prostate cancer genes.

Most cases of breast and prostate cancer are not associated with mutations in known high-penetrance genes, indicating the involvement of multiple low-penetrance risk alleles. Studies that have attempted to identify these genes have met with limited success. The National Cancer Institute Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium--a pooled analysis of multiple large cohort studies with a total of more than 5,000 cases of breast cancer and 8,000 cases of prostate cancer--was therefore initiated. The goal of this consortium is to characterize variations in approximately 50 genes that mediate two pathways that are associated with these cancers--the steroid-hormone metabolism pathway and the insulin-like growth factor signalling pathway--and to associate these variations with cancer risk.

Validation of Rosner-Colditz breast cancer incidence model using an independent data set, the California Teachers Study.

To validate an established breast cancer incidence model in an independent prospective data set. After aligning time periods for follow-up, we restricted populations to comparable age ranges (47-74 years), and followed them for incident invasive breast cancer (follow-up 1994-2008, Nurses' Health Study [NHS]; and 1995-2009, California Teachers Study [CTS]). We identified 2026 cases during 540,617 person years of follow-up in NHS, and 1,400 cases during 288,111 person years in CTS. We fit the Rosner-Colditz log-incidence model and the Gail model using baseline data. We imputed future use of hormones based on type and prior duration of use and other covariates. We assessed performance using area under the curve (AUC) and calibration methods. Participants in the CTS had fewer children, were leaner, consumed more alcohol, and were more frequent users of postmenopausal hormones. Incidence rate ratios for breast cancer showed significantly higher breast cancer in the CTS (IRR = 1.32, 95 % CI 1.24-1.42). Parameters for the log-incidence model were comparable across the two cohorts. Overall, the NHS model performed equally well when applied in the CTS. In the NHS the AUC was 0.60 (s.e. 0.006) and applying the NHS betas to the CTS the performance in the independent data set (validation) was 0.586 (s.e. 0.009). The Gail model gave values of 0.547 (s.e. 0.008), a significant 4 % lower, p < 0.0001. For women 47-69 the AUC values for the log-incidence model are 0.608 in NHS and 0.609 in CTS; and for Gail are 0.569 and 0.572. In both cohorts, performance of both models dropped off in older women 70-87, and later in follow-up (6-12 years). Calibration showed good estimation against SEER with a non-significant 4 % underestimate of overall breast cancer incidence when applying the model in the CTS population (p = 0.098). The Rosner-Colditz model performs consistently well when applied in an independent data set. Performance is stronger predicting incidence among women 47-69 and over a 5-year time interval. AUC values exceed those for Gail by 3-5 % based on AUC when both are applied to the independent validation data set. Models may be further improved with addition of breast density or other markers of risk beyond the current model.

Physical activity and risk of colon adenoma: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Little evidence is available on the relation of physical activity with colon adenomas, a colon cancer precursor. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of published studies (in English) through April 2010, examining physical activity or exercise and risk or prevalence of colon adenoma or polyp. Random effects models were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and corresponding confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 20 studies were identified that examined the association and provided RRs and corresponding 95% CIs. RESULTS: A significant inverse association between physical activity and colon adenomas was found with an overall RR of 0.84 (CI: 0.77-0.92). The association was similar in men (RR=0.81, CI: 0.67-0.98) and women (RR=0.87, CI: 0.74-1.02). The association appeared slightly stronger in large/advanced polyps (RR=0.70, CI: 0.56-0.88). CONCLUSION: This study confirms previous reports of a significant inverse association of physical activity and colon adenoma, and suggests that physical activity can have an important role in colon cancer prevention.

Influence of built environment on quality of life changes in African-American patients with non-metastatic breast cancer.

Research links the built environment to health outcomes, but little is known about how this affects quality of life (QOL) of African American breast cancer patients, especially those residing in disadvantaged neighborhoods. Using latent trajectory models, we examined whether the built environment using Google Street View was associated with changes in QOL over a 2-year follow-up in 228 newly diagnosed African American breast cancer patients. We measured QOL using the RAND 36-Item Health Survey subscales. After adjusting for covariates, improvement in emotional well-being and pain over time was greater for women living on streets with low-quality (vs. high-quality) sidewalks.

Physical activity and colon cancer prevention: a meta-analysis.

Although an inverse association between physical activity and risk of colon cancer is well established, a formal estimate of the magnitude of this risk reduction that includes recent studies is not available. This analysis examines the association by sex and study design, restricting analyses to studies where data for colon cancer alone were available. The authors reviewed published studies through June 2008 examining the association between physical activity and risk of colon cancer. Heterogeneity and publication bias were evaluated and random effects models used to estimate relative risks (RR). Differences by sex and study design were evaluated. A total of 52 studies were included. An inverse association between physical activity and colon cancer was found with an overall relative risk (RR) of 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72, 0.81). For men, the RR was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.82); for women, this was little different, (RR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.88). The findings from case-control studies were stronger (RR=0.69, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.74) than for cohort studies (RR=0.83, 95% CI: 0.78, 0.88). This study confirms previous studies reporting an inverse association between physical activity and colon cancer in both men and women, and provides quantitative estimates of the inverse association.

Can weight loss prevent cancer?

We review and update evidence on obesity, weight gain and weight loss in relation to leading cancers since the International Agency for Research on Cancer report of 2002. Emphasis is placed on the time course of disease and implications for weight control to prevent cancer. We conclude that weight loss could prevent a major portion of common cancers.

Comparison of aspects of smoking among the four histological types of lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of the link between cigarette smoking and lung cancer may vary by histological type. METHODS: We used polytomous logistic regression to evaluate whether aspects of smoking have different effects across four histological types in the Nurses' Health Study. RESULTS: From 1976 to 2002, we identified 1062 cases of lung cancer: squamous cell (n = 201), small cell (n = 236), adenocarcinoma (n = 543) and large cell carcinoma (n = 82), among 65 560 current or former smokers. Risk reduction after quitting ranged from an 8% reduction (relative risk (RR): 0.92, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.94) to a 17% reduction (RR: 0.83, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.86) per year for adenocarcinoma and small cell carcinoma, respectively, with a 9% reduction observed for large cell carcinoma and an 11% reduction observed for squamous cell carcinoma. The association of age at smoking initiation and former cigarette smoking was similar across types, while the association of smoking duration differed. The risk of adenocarcinoma increased by 6% per year of smoking, compared to 7% for large cell, 10% for squamous cell and 12% for small cell. The 6% difference between adenocarcinoma and small cell carcinoma is equivalent to a 3.2 to 9.7-fold increase in risk for 20 years of smoking. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of the number of cigarettes smoked per day and years since quitting smoking are different across the major types of lung cancer, which are fully appreciated at long durations of smoking and smoking cessation. Smoking prevention and cessation should continue to be the focus of public health efforts to reduce lung cancer incidence and mortality.

Early versus 6-12 week postpartum glucose tolerance testing for women with gestational diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to estimate the accuracy of early oral glucose tolerance testing (GTT), to predict impaired glucose tolerance. STUDY DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study. Women received an early 75 g 2 h GTT between postpartum days 2-4 and again 6-12 weeks postpartum. The ability of the early GTT to accurately detect impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPVs). The routine 6-12-week postpartum GTT was considered the gold standard. RESULTS: The early GTT was completed by 100% of subjects, whereas only 31 of 58 (53%) women returned to complete the 6-12-week postpartum GTT. The early GTT had modest sensitivity for impaired glucose tolerance (62.5%) and overt diabetes (50%). However, it had excellent specificity (100%), PPV (100%) and NPV (96.7%) for diabetes. The NPV for impaired glucose tolerance with the early GTT was 80%. CONCLUSION: Rates of 6-12 week postpartum GTT completion among patients with gestational diabetes is poor. Appropriate postpartum management may improve by using the early GTT as a screening test.

Early major complications after bariatric surgery in the USA, 2003-2014: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The effectiveness of bariatric surgery has been well-studied. However, complications after bariatric surgery have been understudied. This review assesses <30-d major complications associated with bariatric procedures, including anastomotic leak, myocardial infarction and pulmonary embolism. This review included 71 studies conducted in the USA between 2003 and 2014 and 107,874 patients undergoing either gastric bypass, adjustable gastric banding or sleeve gastrectomy, with mean age of 44 years and pre-surgery body mass index of 46.5 kg m-2 . Less than 30-d anastomotic leak rate was 1.15%; myocardial infarction rate was 0.37%; pulmonary embolism rate was 1.17%. Among all patients, mortality rate following anastomotic leak, myocardial infarction and pulmonary embolism was 0.12%, 0.37% and 0.18%, respectively. Among surgical procedures, <30-d after surgery, sleeve gastrectomy (1.21% [95% confidence interval, 0.23-2.19%]) had higher anastomotic leak rate than gastric bypass (1.14% [95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.43%]); gastric bypass had higher rates of myocardial infarction and pulmonary embolism than adjustable gastric banding or sleeve gastrectomy. During the review, we found that the quality of complication reporting is lower than the reporting of other outcomes. In summary, <30-d rates of the three major complications after either one of the procedures range from 0% to 1.55%. Mortality following these complications ranges from 0% to 0.64%. Future studies reporting complications after bariatric surgery should improve their reporting quality.

Relationship between estrogen levels, use of hormone replacement therapy, and breast cancer.

We sought to determine the strength of the evidence suggesting that estrogen and postmenopausal replacement hormones play a role in the development of breast cancer. We reviewed the existing English language literature in MEDLINE on hormones and breast cancer, including reports on cell proliferation and endogenous hormone levels, as well as epidemiologic studies of the relationship between the use of postmenopausal hormones and the risk of breast cancer in women. A factor that increases the probability that cancer will develop in an individual has been defined as a cancer cause. The Hill criteria for demonstrating a link between environmental factors and disease were used to review the evidence for a causal relationship between female hormones and breast cancer. We found evidence of a causal relationship between these hormones and breast cancer, based on the following criteria: consistency, dose-response pattern, biologic plausibility, temporality, strength of association, and coherence. The magnitude of the increase in breast cancer risk per year of hormone use is comparable to that associated with delaying menopause by a year. The positive relationship between endogenous hormone levels in postmenopausal women and risk of breast cancer supports a biologic mechanism for the relationship between use of hormones and increased risk of this disease. The finding that the increase in risk of breast cancer associated with increasing duration of hormone use does not vary substantially across studies offers further evidence for a causal relationship. We conclude that existing evidence supports a causal relationship between use of estrogens and progestins, levels of endogenous estrogens, and breast cancer incidence in postmenopausal women. Hormones may act to promote the late stages of carcinogenesis among postmenopausal women and to facilitate the proliferation of malignant cells. Strategies that do not cause breast cancer are urgently needed for the relief of menopausal symptoms and the long-term prevention of osteoporosis and heart disease.

Nurses' health study: log-incidence mathematical model of breast cancer incidence.

BACKGROUND: In 1983, Pike et al. developed a mathematical model to quantify the effects of reproductive risk factors on the incidence of breast cancer. In 1994, we modified that model to correct some deficiencies in the original model, including a lack of terms for spacing of births and an inability to easily accommodate births after age 40 years. Our extended Pike model, while improving on the original, still has serious disadvantages, such as difficulty in translating model parameters into relative risks (RRs) and an incomplete fit to data that slightly overestimated incidence for premenopausal women with an early age at first birth and that underestimated incidence for post-menopausal women with a late age at first birth. PURPOSE: We undertook both the development of a new mathematical model to quantify the effects of reproductive risk factors on breast cancer incidence and validation of the model. METHODS: A new log-incidence model of breast cancer incidence was developed using nonlinear regression methods, and a study population consisting of 89,132 women in the Nurses' Health Study from which a total of 2249 incident cases of breast cancer were identified. Subjects were followed from the return of the 1976 Nurses' Health Study questionnaire until June 1, 1990, or until the last questionnaire was returned, until the development of any cancer, or until death, yielding 1,148,593 person-years of follow-up. The log-incidence models were fitted using iteratively reweighted least squares analysis. RESULTS: The log-incidence model provided a better fit to that data than the extended Pike model, with parameter estimates interpretable in terms of RRs. This new model can be fitted using standard commercially available statistical software. In the model, younger parous women are generally at slightly higher risk than nulliparous women, which is true for both the observed and expected RRs, and older parous women, aged 55-64 years with an early age at first birth, are at lower risk than nulliparous women,while older women with a late age at first birth are at substantially higher risk than nulliparous women. CONCLUSION: Log-incidence models, such as this one, provide an efficient framework for modeling the effect of lifestyle risk factors on breast cancer incidence that may be specifically targeted to certain time periods of a woman's reproductive life.

Risk factors for breast cancer according to family history of breast cancer. For the Nurses' Health Study Research Group.

BACKGROUND: Family history of breast cancer is an established risk factor for this disease and is used to identify women at higher risk, although the impact of risk factors for breast cancer among women with a family history is not well defined. PURPOSE: Using a modified extended log-incidence Pike model, we prospectively examined the impact of risk factors for breast cancer among women with and without a family history of the disease. METHODS: Data analyzed were obtained prospectively from the Nurses' Health Study. Two thousand two hundred forty-nine incident cases of invasive breast cancer were identified in a cohort of 89,132 women aged 30-55 years in 1976 followed biennially through 1990 (1.1 million person years of follow-up). With the use of proportional hazards models, we evaluated the association between risk factors for breast cancer and risk among women with and those without a family history of the disease. We then fit a modified extended log-incidence Pike model to these data. RESULTS: Among women with a family history of breast cancer, reproductive risk factors has associations that were different from those observed among women without a family history of the disease. In particular, we observed little protection from later age at menarche, no protection from multiple births when compared with nulliparity, nor from early, as compared with later, age at first birth. Fitting these data to a model of breast cancer incidence on the basis of reproductive risk factors, we observed an adverse effect of first pregnancy on risk of breast cancer among women with a family history of breast cancer that was approximately 50% greater in magnitude than among women without a family history. Additional births after the first birth conveyed little protection for women with a family history. History of benign breast disease, past use of oral contraceptives, and use of postmenopausal hormones showed relative risks that did not differ between women with a family history and those without a family history of the disease. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a consistent increase in risk of breast cancer among women with a mother or sister history of the disease that was exacerbated by first pregnancy. Among women with a family history of breast cancer, the adverse effect of pregnancy persisted so that to age 70 years, parous women were at higher risk of breast cancer than nulliparous women. Among women without a family history of the disease, first pregnancy was associated with a smaller increase in risk, and early pregnancy and higher number of births were each associated with reduced breast cancer incidence.

Validation of the Gail et al. model for predicting individual breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: The Gail et al. model is considered the best available means for estimating an individual woman's risk of developing breast cancer. Such estimates are useful in decision making on the part of women, in designing prevention trials, and in targeting screening and prevention efforts. PURPOSE: Our purpose was to evaluate the ability of the model to accurately predict individual breast cancer risk, using a large population independent of the one from which the model was derived. METHODS: We compared the number of cancer cases predicted by the model to the actual number of cases observed in the Nurses' Health Study. The study population was 115,172 women who did not have breast cancer at the beginning of the study. Questionnaires were sent to participants every 2 years, seeking data on risk factors and diagnoses of breast cancer. Follow-up compliance was 95% over the 12-year study period. RESULTS: The model over-predicted absolute breast cancer risk by 33% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 28%-39%), with the overprediction more than twofold among premenopausal women (95% CI = 1.9-2.2), among women with extensive family history of breast cancer (95% CI = 1.1-3.9), and among women with age at first birth younger than 20 years (95% CI = 1.3-4.7). The correlation coefficient between observed and predicted risk was 0.67, indicating that the model is less than satisfactory for ranking individual levels of breast cancer risk. Overprediction occurred at all deciles of predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS: The model's performance is unsatisfactory for estimating breast cancer risk for individual women aged 25-61 years who do not participate in annual screening. Lower mammography screening rates in the Nurses' Health Study may account for some, but not all, of the discrepancy between observed and predicted cases. IMPLICATIONS: A recent modification of the model by the tamoxifen trial investigators is likely to have provided accurate power calculations. This modified form of the model should be useful for planning other large, population-based studies.

Validation of the Gail et al. model of breast cancer risk prediction and implications for chemoprevention.

BACKGROUND: Women and their clinicians are increasingly encouraged to use risk estimates derived from statistical models, primarily that of Gail et al., to aid decision making regarding potential prevention options for breast cancer, including chemoprevention with tamoxifen. METHODS: We evaluated both the goodness of fit of the Gail et al. model 2 that predicts the risk of developing invasive breast cancer specifically and its discriminatory accuracy at the individual level in the Nurses' Health Study. We began with a cohort of 82 109 white women aged 45-71 years in 1992 and applied the model of Gail et al. to these women over a 5-year follow-up period to estimate a 5-year risk of invasive breast cancer. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: The model fit well in the total sample (ratio of expected [E] to observed [O] numbers of cases = 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89 to 0.99). Underprediction was slightly greater for younger women (<60 years), but in most age and risk factor strata, E/O ratios were close to 1.0. The model fit equally well (E/O ratio = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.87 to 0.99) in a subset of women reporting recent screening (i.e., within 1 year before the baseline); among women with an estimated 5-year risk of developing invasive breast cancer of 1.67% or greater, the E/O ratio was 1.04 (95% CI = 0.96 to 1.12). The concordance statistic, which indicates discriminatory accuracy, for the Gail et al. model 2 when used to estimate 5-year risk was 0.58 (95% CI = 0.56 to 0.60). Only 3.3% of the 1354 cases of breast cancer observed in the cohort arose among women who fell into age-risk strata expected to have statistically significant net health benefits from prophylactic tamoxifen use. CONCLUSIONS: The Gail et al. model 2 fit well in this sample in terms of predicting numbers of breast cancer cases in specific risk factor strata but had modest discriminatory accuracy at the individual level. This finding has implications for use of the model in clinical counseling of individual women.

Alcohol, low-methionine--low-folate diets, and risk of colon cancer in men.

BACKGROUND: Methylation of DNA, which may have a role in the regulation of gene expression, depends on dietary folate and methionine. Because aberrant DNA methylation may contribute to the initiation or progression of colon cancer, we hypothesized that deficient intakes of folate or methionine and high consumption of alcohol, an antagonist of methyl-group metabolism, increase risk of colon neoplasia. Previously, a high-alcohol and low-methionine--low-folate (methyl-deficient) diet was shown to be related to a higher risk of colon adenomas, precursors of cancer. PURPOSE: Our goal was to determine if ingestion of a high-alcohol, methyl-deficient diet is related directly to risk of colon cancer. METHODS: We assessed dietary intake for a 1-year period for a cohort of 47,931 U.S. male health professionals, 40-75 years old and free of diagnosed cancer in 1986. We assessed diet by using a validated, semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire. During 6 years of follow-up, we documented 205 new cases of colon cancer in this cohort. RESULTS: Current alcohol intake was directly related to risk of colon cancer (multivariate relative risk [RR] = 2.07; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29-3.32, for > 2 drinks versus < or = 0.25 drink daily; P trend = .005), and past drinkers were also at higher risk (RR = 1.95; 95% CI = 1.22-3.10). Individually, folate and methionine intakes were weakly inversely associated with risk of colon cancer. An adverse effect of a high-alcohol, low-methyl diet was not observed among regular users of aspirin, who have previously been shown to be at lower risk for colon cancer. Combinations of high alcohol and low methionine and folate intakes yielded striking associations for total colon cancer (RR = 3.30 [95% CI = 1.58-6.88] comparing high-methyl diets with low-methyl diets among nonusers of aspirin) and for cancers of the distal colon (RR = 7.44; 95% CI = 1.72-32.1). Among men with high intakes of folate or methionine, alcohol levels of > 2 drinks daily were not associated with risk of colon cancer. The increased risk of colon cancer associated with alcohol and methyl-deficient diets was not confounded by smoking; intakes of fat, red meat, and fiber; level of physical activity; multivitamin or aspirin use; and body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the hypothesis that substantial consumption of alcohol, when combined with inadequate intakes of folate and methionine, may increase risk of colon cancer and confirm similar findings in adenomas. IMPLICATIONS: These data provide further support of recommendations to avoid excess alcohol consumption and to increase dietary folate to lower the risk of colon cancer.

Prospective study of regular aspirin use and the risk of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) can inhibit tumor development in the large bowel. An inverse association between the use of NSAIDs and the incidence of breast cancer has been observed, but this association has not been statistically significant in all studies. PURPOSE: We analyzed data from the prospective Nurses' Health Study to evaluate the influence of aspirin use on breast cancer risk. METHODS: We studied a population of 89,528 female registered nurses who reported no history of breast or other cancers (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and who returned a mailed questionnaire in 1980 that elicited information concerning breast cancer risk factors and current and past aspirin use. Follow-up questionnaires were mailed to the participants every 2 years; the women were followed through 1992. Information concerning current aspirin use was obtained from each biennial questionnaire, except in 1986. Cases of breast cancer were identified through questionnaire responses, and permission was sought for a review of medical records to confirm the diagnoses. Our analysis was based on 2414 cases of invasive breast cancer, which included 2303 cases confirmed with medical records and 111 cases for which no records were obtained. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for age or age plus other known or potential breast cancer risk factors (i.e., multivariate), were calculated. RESULTS: Regular aspirin use (two or more tablets per week) in 1980 was unrelated to breast cancer incidence during the succeeding 12-year period (with no regular aspirin use as the referent, multivariate RR = 1.03; 95% CI = 0.95-1.12). The corresponding risk estimate for consistent regular aspirin use during the period from 1980 through 1988 was 1.01 (95% CI = 0.80-1.27). The risks were similar for heavy aspirin use (for more than two tablets per day [i.e., > 14 per week] in 1980 and in 1980 through 1988, the multivariate RRs [95% CIs] were 1.05 [0.89-1.23] and 1.09 [0.75-1.60], respectively) and for extended durations of regular use (e.g., for 20 years or more of regular use, multivariate RR = 1.00; 95% CI = 0.71-1.41). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that regular aspirin use does not reduce the risk of breast cancer.

A prospective study of permanent hair dye use and hematopoietic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Use of permanent hair dye has been suggested as a risk factor for several types of cancer, although epidemiologic data have not generally supported this hypothesis. Retrospective studies have reported a possible association between hair dyes and hematopoietic cancers. PURPOSE: Our purpose was to investigate if permanent hair dye was associated with risks of incident lymphoma, leukemia, and multiple myeloma in the Nurses' Health Study, a prospective cohort study of 99,067 women aged 30-55 years in 1976. METHODS: Questionnaires regarding medical history and other health-related variables were sent to Nurses' Health Study participants every 2 years from 1976 to 1990. The follow-up for mortality in this cohort exceeds 98%. We identified 244 newly diagnosed cases of hematopoietic cancers, confirmed by pathology reports. Permanent hair dye use was ascertained over four cycles of questionnaires from 1976-1982; status of hair dye use established in 1982 was then used for the remainder of the follow-up time (through 1990). Age-specific incidence rates were calculated and used to compute relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: We found no evidence of a positive association between ever use of permanent hair dye and all hematopoietic cancers (age-adjusted RR = 0.9; 95% CI = 0.7-1.2) or specific types (Hodgkin's lymphoma [RR = 0.9; 95% CI = 0.4-2.1], non-Hodgkin's lymphoma [RR = 1.1; 95% CI = 0.8-1.6], multiple myeloma [RR = 0.4; 95% CI = 0.2-0.9], chronic lymphocytic leukemia [RR = 0.6; 95% CI = 0.3-1.5], and other leukemias [RR = 0.8; 95% CI = 0.3-1.9]). Further examination of age at first use, duration, frequency, and time since first use and risk of all hematopoietic cancers or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (the largest diagnostic group), indicated no material associations. CONCLUSION: In this prospective cohort study, permanent hair dye use is not adversely related to risks of hematopoietic cancers.