A Minimal Nontrivial Example of Higher Order Evidence.

Higher order evidence (evidence about evidence) allows epidemiologists and other health data scientists to account for measurement error in validation data. Here, to illustrate the use of higher order evidence, we provide a minimal nontrivial example of estimating the proportion and show how higher order evidence can be used to construct sensitivity analyses. The proposed method provides a flexible approach to account for multiple levels of distortion in the results of epidemiologic studies.

Accuracy of portable ultrasound for obstetric biometry.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the accuracy of two portable ultrasound machines (PUM) in obtaining fetal biometry and estimating gestational age. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Fetal Age Machine Learning Initiative, an observational study of pregnant women in the United States and Zambia. Each participant underwent assessment by an experienced sonographer using both a high-specification ultrasound machine (HSUM) and a PUM (either Butterfly iQ or Clarius C3) to measure fetal biometry and calculate estimated gestational age (EGA) at each visit. Through comparison of paired PUM-HSUM scans, we estimated agreement between individual biometry measurements and aggregate gestational age estimates by reporting mean difference, along with intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and Bland-Altman plots, adjusting for trend. RESULTS: 881 participants contributed 1386 paired PUM-HSUM ultrasound studies between April and December 2021. PUM studies included 991 Butterfly and 395 Clarius. Gestational age at scan ranged from 7 to 38 weeks. Compared to HSUM, the Butterfly PUM had a mean difference of -0.20 days (95%CI±0.40) in the 1st trimester and -0.68 days (95%CI±0.68) in the 2nd/3rd trimesters. Also compared to HSUM, the Clarius PUM had a mean difference of 0.47 days (95%CI±0.64) in the 1st trimester and -1.67 days (95%CI±0.43) in the 2nd/3rd trimesters. ICCs were 0.989 or greater throughout. Increasing gestational age was associated with increasing error and absolute error. Both PUM devices demonstrated a modest trend toward underestimation of EGA at advancing gestational ages in 2nd/3rd trimester scans, compared to HSUM. CONCLUSION: Both the Butterfly iQ and Clarius C3 PUM devices were highly accurate in performing fetal biometry in a diverse population from the US and Zambia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A cautionary note about estimating effects of secondary exposures in cohort studies.

Cohort studies are often enriched for a primary exposure of interest to improve cost-effectiveness, which presents analytical challenges not commonly discussed in epidemiology. In this paper, we use causal diagrams to represent exposure-enriched cohort studies, illustrate a scenario wherein the risk ratio for the effect of a secondary exposure on an outcome is biased, and propose an analytical method for correcting for such bias. In our motivating example, maternal smoking (Z) is a cause of fetal growth restriction (X), which subsequently affects preterm birth (Y) (i.e., Z → X → Y); strong positive associations exist between both Z, X and X, Y; and enrichment for X increases its prevalence from 10% to 50%. In the X-enriched cohort, unadjusted and X-adjusted analyses lead to bias in the risk ratio for the total effect of Z on Y. After application of inverse probability weights, the bias is corrected, with a small loss of efficiency in comparison with a same-sized study without X-enrichment. With increasing interest in conducting secondary analyses to reduce research costs, caution should be employed when analyzing studies that have already been enriched, intentionally or unintentionally, for a primary exposure of interest. Causal diagrams can help identify scenarios in which secondary analyses may be biased. Inverse probability weights can be used to remove the bias.

Improving maternal update rates within the first hour of NICU admission.

BACKGROUND: Timely communication is essential in attaining maternal satisfaction, developing an excellent physician-patient rapport, and increasing trust. This study reports a significant improvement in maternal communication rates through the quality improvement method. METHODS: An educational module was developed, and NICU staff was presented with the slides, followed by a performance questionnaire to demonstrate understanding. The first phase was completed by obtaining feedback from mothers through a questionnaire. The first plan-do-study-act (PDSA) cycle, carried out for eight weeks looking at the rates of the maternal update provided within an hour of admission of their neonates to the NICU, was followed by the second PDSA cycle, carried out for ten weeks. The improvement was calculated using conventional statistics and a statistical process control chart. RESULTS: During the first phase of the study, thirty-six percent of the mothers were updated within an hour of admission of their neonates to the NICU. During the first PDSA cycle, we did not notice a special cause variation or process change. A significant shift, eight consecutive points above the mean, was noted on the control chart during PDSA cycle 2. The mean±SD of the weekly update rate increased significantly during PDSA cycle 2 (76.8±11) compared to PDSA cycle 1 (47.5±14), p-value = 0.0002. CONCLUSION: We improved the maternal update rates through the educational module following the QI improvement model using the PDSA cycles.

Prostate involvement during sexually transmitted infections as measured by prostate-specific antigen concentration.

BACKGROUND: We investigated prostate involvement during sexually transmitted infections by measuring serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) as a marker of prostate infection, inflammation, and/or cell damage in young, male US military members. METHODS: We measured PSA before and during infection for 299 chlamydia, 112 gonorrhoea, and 59 non-chlamydial, non-gonococcal urethritis (NCNGU) cases, and 256 controls. RESULTS: Chlamydia and gonorrhoea, but not NCNGU, cases were more likely to have a large rise (40%) in PSA than controls (33.6%, 19.1%, and 8.2% vs 8.8%, P<0.0001, 0.021, and 0.92, respectively). CONCLUSION: Chlamydia and gonorrhoea may infect the prostate of some infected men.

Uncertain outcomes: adjusting for misclassification in antimalarial efficacy studies.

Evaluation of antimalarial efficacy is difficult because recurrent parasitaemia can be due to recrudescence or re-infection. PCR is used to differentiate between recrudescences and re-infections by comparing parasite allelic variants before and after treatment. However, PCR-corrected results are susceptible to misclassification: false positives, due to re-infection by the same variant present in the patient before treatment; and false negatives, due to variants that are present but too infrequent to be detected in the pre-treatment PCR, but are then detectable post-treatment. This paper aimed to explore factors affecting the probability of false positives and proposes a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis to account for both types of misclassification. Higher levels of transmission intensity, increased multiplicity of infection, and limited allelic variation resulted in more false recrudescences. The uncertainty analysis exploits characteristics of study data to minimize bias in the estimate of efficacy and can be applied to areas of different transmission intensity.

An advance notification letter increases participation in colorectal cancer screening.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact of novel invitation strategies on population participation in faecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. SETTING: A community screening programme in Adelaide, South Australia. METHODS: In total, 2400 people aged 50-74 years were randomly allocated to one of four CRC screening invitation strategies: (a) CONTROL: standard invitation-to-screen letter explaining risk of CRC and the concept, value and method of screening; (b) Risk: invitation with additional messages related to CRC risk; (c) Advocacy: invitation with additional messages related to advocacy for screening from previous screening programme participants and (d) Advance Notification: first, a letter introducing CONTROL letter messages followed by the standard invitation-to-screen. Invitations included an FIT kit. Programme participation rates were determined for each strategy relative to control. Associations between participation and sociodemographic variables were explored. RESULTS: At 12 weeks after invitation, participation was: CONTROL: 237/600 (39.5%); Risk: 242/600 (40.3%); Advocacy: 216/600 (36.0%) and Advance Notification: 290/600 (48.3%). Participation was significantly greater than CONTROL only in the Advance Notification group (Relative risk [RR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.43). This effect was apparent as early as two weeks from date of offer; Advance Notification: 151/600 (25.2%) versus CONTROL: 109/600 (18.2%, RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.11-1.73). CONCLUSIONS: Advance notification significantly increased screening participation. The effect may be due to a population shift in readiness to undertake screening, and is consistent with the Transtheoretical Model of behaviour change. Risk or lay advocacy strategies did not improve screening participation. Organized screening programmes should consider using advance notification letters to improve programme participation.

Do Genetic Markers of Inflammation Modify the Relationship between Periodontitis and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease? Findings from the SHIP Study.

An association between periodontitis and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been reported by experimental animal and epidemiologic studies. This study investigated whether circulating levels of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and a weighted genetic CRP score representing markers of inflammatory burden modify the association between periodontitis and NAFLD. Data came from 2,481 participants of the Study of Health in Pomerania who attended baseline examination that occurred between 1997 and 2001. Periodontitis was defined as the percentage of sites (0%, <30%, ≥30%) with probing pocket depth (PD) ≥4 mm, and NAFLD status was determined using liver ultrasound assessment. Serum CRP levels were assayed at a central laboratory, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms previously identified through genome-wide association studies as robustly associated with serum CRP were combined into a weighted genetic CRP score (wGSCRP). Logistic regression models estimated the association between periodontitis and NAFLD within strata of serum CRP and separately within strata of the wGSCRP. The prevalence of NAFLD was 26.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.6, 28.1) while 17.8% (95% CI, 16.0-19.6) had ≥30% of sites with PD ≥4 mm. Whereas the wGSCRP was not a modifier ( Pinteraction = 0.8) on the multiplicative scale, serum CRP modified the relationship between periodontitis and NAFLD ( Pinteraction = 0.01). The covariate-adjusted prevalence odds ratio of NAFLD comparing participants with ≥30% of sites with PD ≥4 mm to those with no site affected was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.32-4.31) among participants with serum CRP <1 mg/L. The corresponding estimate was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.57-1.66) for participants with serum CRP levels of 1 to 3 mg/L and 1.12 (95% CI, 0.65-1.93) for participants with serum CRP >3 mg/L. Periodontitis was positively associated with higher prevalence odds of NAFLD, and this relationship was modified by serum CRP levels.

Screening for colorectal cancer by faecal occult blood test: why people choose to refuse.

To better understand the personal barriers that limit participation in faecal occult blood test (FOBT) screening for colorectal cancer, non-participants from a recent screening initiative were sent detailed questionnaires, defining their reasons for not participating, as well as how to make screening more attractive. The important barrier was procrastination. The type of FOBT kit offered influenced the reasons for not participating. Convenient FOBT and greater general practitioner involvement may be important for optimizing community acceptance of FOBT-based screening.

Increased expression of c-Kit or its ligand Steel Factor is not a common feature of adult acute myeloid leukaemia.

Cell surface levels of the receptor tyrosine kinase P145(c-kit), the product of the c-kit proto-oncogens, in a panel of 80 primary adult acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) specimens collected at presentation were quantitated by immunofluorescence and flow cytometry, and compared with levels on CD34+ bone marrow cells from normal donors. Receptor levels on AML blast cells were extremely variable and were similar to, or less than, those on normal stem and progenitor cells. In general P145(c-kit) expression was higher on cells of immature phenotype (FAB M1 and M2). c-kit mRNA was quantitated by ribonuclease protection assay (RPA) and was shown to be correlated with cell surface protein expression (r=0.76; P<0.001). This indicates that ligand-mediated receptor internalisation or other mechanisms of increased protein turnover are not responsible for variations in the level of P145(c-kit) in AML specimens. Quantitative Southern blotting was used to examine c-kit gene copy number in 25 of these specimens and was found to be normal in all but one. Thus we have found little evidence of over-expression of c-kit in adult AML. mRNA for the c-kit ligand, Steel Factor (SLF) was also quantitated by RPA in these specimens. While SLF message was detectable (limit of detection approximately 10(4) copies per 10 microgram total RNA; equivalent to 1 copy per 100 cells) in 19% of cases, these specimens in general contained low levels of c-kit mRNA. Thus, an autocrine cycle involving c-kit and SLF does not appear to be a common feature of AML.

Biotinylation: an alternative to radioiodination for the identification of cell surface antigens in immunoprecipitates.

A method has been developed in which the conventional radioiodine label is replaced by non-radioactive biotin in studies involving the immunoprecipitation and analysis of cell surface antigens. The labelling reagent, d-biotinyl-N-hydroxysulfosuccinimide ester (NHSS-biotin), reacts preferentially with lysine residues in polypeptides and possibly also with free amino-groups on carbohydrates and lipids. The reagent can be used as a cell surface label, does not interfere with antigen-antibody interactions and allows labelled molecules to be detected with high sensitivity using streptavidin-peroxidase conjugates. The target antigens of a range of monoclonal antibodies to human cell surface components have been identified using this procedure.

Fruit and vegetable intake and risk of cardiovascular disease: the Women's Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Prospective data relating fruit and vegetable intake to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk are sparse, particularly for women. OBJECTIVE: In a large, prospective cohort of women, we examined the hypothesis that higher fruit and vegetable intake reduces CVD risk. DESIGN: In 1993 we assessed fruit and vegetable intake among 39876 female health professionals with no previous history of CVD or cancer by use of a detailed food-frequency questionnaire. We subsequently followed these women for an average of 5 y for incidence of nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, coronary artery bypass graft, or death due to CVD. RESULTS: During 195647 person-years of follow-up, we documented 418 incident cases of CVD including 126 MIs. After adjustment for age, randomized treatment status, and smoking, we observed a significant inverse association between fruit and vegetable intake and CVD risk. For increasing quintiles of total fruit and vegetable intake (median servings/d: 2. 6, 4.1, 5.5, 7.1, and 10.2), the corresponding relative risks (RRs) were 1.0 (reference), 0.78, 0.72, 0.68, and 0.68 (95% CI comparing the 2 extreme quintiles: 0.51, 0.92; P: for trend = 0.01). An inverse, though not statistically significant, trend remained after additional adjustment for other known CVD risk factors, with RRs of 1.0, 0.75, 0.83, 0.80, and 0.85 (95% CI for extreme quintiles: 0.61, 1.17). After excluding participants with a self-reported history of diabetes, hypertension, or high cholesterol at baseline, the multivariate-adjusted RR was 0.45 when extreme quintiles were compared (95% CI: 0.22, 0.91; P: for trend = 0.09). Higher fruit and vegetable intake was also associated with a lower risk of MI, with an adjusted RR of 0.62 for extreme quintiles (95% CI: 0.37, 1.04; P: for trend = 0.07). CONCLUSION: These data suggest that higher intake of fruit and vegetables may be protective against CVD and support current dietary guidelines to increase fruit and vegetable intake.

The predictive value of CSF oligoclonal banding for MS 5 years after optic neuritis. Optic Neuritis Study Group.

The predictive value of CSF oligoclonal banding for the development of clinically definite MS (CDMS) within 5 years after optic neuritis was assessed in 76 patients enrolled in the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial. The presence of oligoclonal bands was associated with the development of CDMS (p = 0.02). However, the results suggest that CSF analysis is only useful in the risk assessment of optic neuritis patients when brain MRI is normal and is not of predictive value when brain MRI lesions are present at the time of optic neuritis.

Interaction between HLA-DR2 and abnormal brain MRI in optic neuritis and early MS. Optic Neuritis Study Group.

The association of the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR2 allele with brain MRI signal abnormalities and with the development of MS was assessed in 178 patients enrolled in the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial. HLA haplotype DR2 was present in 85 (48%) of the 178 patients. Its presence was associated with increased odds of probable or definite MS at 5 years (odds ratio, 1.92; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 3.67; p = 0.04). The association was most apparent among patients with signal abnormalities on baseline brain MRI.

The National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire: experience of the ONTT. Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial.

PURPOSE: To describe the health-related quality of life, measured with the National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire (NEI-VFQ), of patients several years after the onset of optic neuritis, according to their neurologic and visual status; to assess the relationship between the NEI-VFQ subscales and clinical measures of visual function; and to assess the internal consistency reliability of the NEI-VFQ subscales. METHODS: The NEI-VFQ was administered to 244 patients 5 to 8 years after treatment for an episode of acute optic neuritis as part of the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial. Visual acuity, visual field, contrast sensitivity, and color vision were measured at the same time as questionnaire completion. RESULTS: The NEI-VFQ scores generally were lower than those reported for a disease-free group. Reported dysfunction was greater when multiple sclerosis was present and when visual acuity was abnormal, supporting the construct validity of the NEI-VFQ. Rank correlations between the NEI-VFQ subscales and clinical measures of visual function were moderate at best. Internal consistency reliability was generally high for most of the NEI-VFQ subscales. CONCLUSIONS: These findings add support to the use of the NEI-VFQ as a valuable measure of self-reported visual impairment.

Sense of exhaustion and coronary heart disease among college alumni.

Vital exhaustion, defined as a combination of fatigue, lack of energy, feelings of hopelessness, loss of libido, and increased irritability, has been proposed as a risk indicator for the development of coronary heart disease (CHD). It is unclear if the association between vital exhaustion and CHD is independent of sleep behavior, depression, and physical activity. We ascertained sense of exhaustion among 5,053 male college alumni who were free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by asking, "How often do you experience sense of exhaustion (except after exercise)?" on a health survey in 1980. Eight hundred fifteen men died during 12 years of follow-up, 25% due to CHD. After adjustment for age, body mass index, smoking status, and history of physician-diagnosed diabetes and hypertension, frequent sense of exhaustion was associated with a twofold increase in CHD mortality (rate ratio 2.07; 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 3.96). After additional adjustment for insomnia, sleep duration, use of sleeping pills and tranquilizers, physical activity, history of physician-diagnosed depression, and alcohol intake, the rate ratio was not appreciably altered; however, the association now was of borderline significance (rate ratio 2.06; 95% confidence interval: 0.98 to 4.36) because there were only 10 deaths from CHD among men who were frequently exhausted. In a prospective observational study, frequent sense of exhaustion appeared to be independently associated with increased risk of CHD mortality in men.

Are sleep complaints an independent risk factor for myocardial infarction?

PURPOSE: To investigate whether subjective sleep complaints are an independent predictor of myocardial infarction (MI) in a community of older adults and to gain clues as to why the association between sleep complaints and incident MI exists. METHODS: Using longitudinal data from the Piedmont study on 2960 adults aged 65 or older who were free of symptomatic heart disease at baseline, we screened 19 potential confounders to determine if any, alone or in combination, could explain the observed relationship between incident MI and sleep complaints. RESULTS: During the three-year follow-up period, there were 152 incident MIs. Restless sleep (incidence density ratio (IDR) = 1.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.11, 2.24) and trouble falling asleep (IDR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.09, 2.60) predicted incident MI after adjusting for age, gender, and race. IDRs were not substantially impacted by controlling for smoking, blood pressure, diabetes or obesity. After adjustment for education, number of prescription medicines, self-rated health, and depression score, all IDRs were nullified. In particular, self-rated health and depression were strong independent risk factors for MI. CONCLUSIONS: A subjective sleep complaint increases the likelihood of a first MI in older adults without overt coronary heart disease (CHD) independently of classic coronary risk factors and appears to be a marker for a syndrome of depression and malaise that may have a causal relationship to MI.

A monoclonal antibody to a human mast cell/myeloid leukaemia-specific antigen binds to normal haemopoietic progenitor cells and inhibits colony formation in vitro.

An antigen identified by murine monoclonal antibody YB5.B8 has previously been detected only on acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia (ANLL) cells and tissue mast cells. We now report that the YB5.B8 antigen is present on a minor population (up to 3%) of normal bone marrow mononuclear cells which overlaps the set of progenitor cells capable of forming haemopoietic colonies in vitro. The results indicate that the antigen is a normal haemopoietic progenitor cell marker which is selectively retained on mast cells during maturation, and that leukaemias which express the antigen are not necessarily committed to the mast cell lineage. Furthermore, the antibody was capable of partially inhibiting the formation of haemopoietic colonies in vitro, indicating an important functional role for the antigen. This is consistent with the observation, reported in the accompanying paper, that expression of the YB5.B8 antigen is strongly correlated with poor response to therapy in patients with ANLL.

The use of Alu-PCR to distinguish between typical pulmonary carcinoids versus classic midgut carcinoids.

Although histologically 'typical' pulmonary and 'classic' midgut carcinoids are similar, the small intestine tumors are more aggressive than their pulmonary counterpart. We believe that in contrast to pulmonary carcinoids arising from Kulchitsky cells, 'classical' midgut carcinoids develop from crypt stem cells that differentiate into endocrine ('classical') or exocrine-endocrine ('non-classical' adenocarcinoid) tumors. The different progenitor cells may determine different malignant potentials between these types of carcinoids. To identify genetic differences between 'classical' midgut and typical pulmonary carcinoids using an Alu-PCR genomic profiling method, we reviewed 54 cases of carcinoid tumors that were surgically removed at Hartford Hospital from 1996 through 2001. Histologically these cases were selected into three groups: i) foregut or pulmonary carcinoids, ii) 'classic' midgut carcinoids of small intestine and iii) multiple typical pulmonary carcinoids. Genomic-profiling of DNA from these cases was performed using an Alu-PCR method. Metastases were observed in 18/20 'classical' intestinal carcinoid tumors, 3/30 pulmonary carcinoids, and 0/4 multiple pulmonary carcinoids. These results confirm that pulmonary carcinoids behave in a more benign fashion than intestinal carcinoid tumors. Using Alu-PCR to profile tumor cell genomic DNA, we showed that 68% of small intestine carcinoids and 58% of pulmonary carcinoids had allelic banding patterns suggestive of either amplification or deletion of gene sequences. Alu-PCR demonstrated loss or gain of genetic sequences that were unique for each examined group. These findings strongly suggest that pulmonary carcinoids differ from their intestinal counterparts.

Test of item-response bias in the CES-D scale. experience from the New Haven EPESE study.

We present results of item-response bias analyses of the exogenous variables age, gender, and race for all items from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale using data (N = 2340) from the New Haven component of the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE). The proportional odds of blacks responding higher on the CES-D items "people are unfriendly" and "people dislike me" were 2.29 (95% confidence interval: 1.74, 3.02) and 2.96 (95% confidence interval: 2.15, 4.07) times that of whites matched on overall depressive symptoms, respectively. In addition, the proportional odds of women responding higher on the CES-D item "crying spells" were 2.14 (95% confidence interval: 1.60, 2.82) times that of men matched on overall depressive symptoms. Our data indicate the CES-D would have greater validity among this diverse group of older men and women after removal of the crying item and two interpersonal items.