Phosphorylation of PDHA by AMPK Drives TCA Cycle to Promote Cancer Metastasis.

Cancer metastasis accounts for the major cause of cancer-related deaths. How disseminated cancer cells cope with hostile microenvironments in secondary site for full-blown metastasis is largely unknown. Here, we show that AMPK (AMP-activated protein kinase), activated in mouse metastasis models, drives pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (PDHc) activation to maintain TCA cycle (tricarboxylic acid cycle) and promotes cancer metastasis by adapting cancer cells to metabolic and oxidative stresses. This AMPK-PDHc axis is activated in advanced breast cancer and predicts poor metastasis-free survival. Mechanistically, AMPK localizes in the mitochondrial matrix and phosphorylates the catalytic alpha subunit of PDHc (PDHA) on two residues S295 and S314, which activates the enzymatic activity of PDHc and alleviates an inhibitory phosphorylation by PDHKs, respectively. Importantly, these phosphorylation events mediate PDHc function in cancer metastasis. Our study reveals that AMPK-mediated PDHA phosphorylation drives PDHc activation and TCA cycle to empower cancer cells adaptation to metastatic microenvironments for metastasis.

Plasma Progerin in Patients With Hutchinson-Gilford Progeria Syndrome: Immunoassay Development and Clinical Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome (HGPS) is an ultrarare, fatal, premature aging disease caused by a toxic protein called progerin. Circulating progerin has not been previously detected, precluding research using readily available biological samples. This study aimed to develop a plasma progerin assay to evaluate progerin's quantity, response to progerin-targeted therapy, and relationship to patient survival. METHODS: Biological samples were collected by The Progeria Research Foundation Cell and Tissue Bank from a non-HGPS cohort cross-sectionally and a HGPS cohort longitudinally. HGPS donations occurred at baseline and intermittently while treated with farnesylation inhibitors lonafarnib±pravastatin and zoledronate, within 3 sequential open-label clinical trials at Boston Children's Hospital totaling >10 years of treatment. An ultrasensitive single-molecule counting progerin immunoassay was developed with prespecified performance parameters. Intra- and interpatient group statistics were descriptive. The relationship between progerin and survival was assessed by using joint modeling with time-dependent slopes parameterization. RESULTS: The assay's dynamic detection range was 59 to 30 000 pg/mL (R2=0.9987). There was no lamin A cross-reactivity. Mean plasma progerin in non-HGPS participants (n=69; 39 male, 30 female; age, 0.2-71.3 years) was 351±251 pg/mL, and in drug-naive participants with HGPS (n=74; 37 female, 37 male; age, 2.1-17.5 years) was 33 261±12 346 pg/mL, reflecting a 95-fold increase in affected children (P<0.0001). Progerin levels did not differ by sex (P=0.99). Lonafarnib treatment resulted in an average per-visit progerin decrease from baseline of between 35% to 62% (all P<0.005); effects were not augmented by adding pravastatin and zoledronate. Progerin levels fell within 4 months of therapy and remained lower for up to 10 years. The magnitude of progerin decrease positively associated with patient survival (P<0.0001; ie, 15 000 pg/mL decrease yields a 63.9% decreased risk of death). For any given decrease in progerin, life expectancy incrementally increased with longer treatment duration. CONCLUSIONS: A sensitive, quantitative immunoassay for progerin was developed and used to demonstrate high progerin levels in HGPS plasma that decreased with lonafarnib therapy. The extent of improved survival was associated with both the magnitude of progerin decrease and duration at lower levels. Thus, plasma progerin is a biomarker for HGPS whose reduction enables short- and long-term assessment of progerin-targeted treatment efficacy. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov. Unique identifiers: NCT00879034 and NCT00916747.

Cardiovascular impact of near complete estrogen deprivation in premenopausal women with breast cancer: The CROWN study.

Survival with operable breast cancer has improved markedly in recent decades, however, treatment-related cardiovascular toxicities threaten to offset these gains. Ovarian function suppression paired with aromatase inhibition, for premenopausal women with hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer, is a newer widely adopted therapy with the potential for significant long-term cardiovascular toxicity. Abrupt estrogen deprivation for non-cancer reasons is associated with accelerated coronary artery disease. Women with breast cancer treated with aromatase inhibition in addition to ovarian function suppression experience a dual hit with regards to estrogen exposure. The CaRdiac Outcomes With Near-complete estrogen deprivation (CROWN) study seeks to understand the early, subclinical natural history of cardiovascular compromise in young women undergoing near-complete estrogen deprivation (NCED) therapy. It is critical to understand the early subclinical development of cardiovascular disease to identify a window for therapeutic intervention before overt cardiovascular events occur. This three-site regional study (Atrium Health Wake Forest, Duke, and Virginia Commonwealth University) uses serial stress cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging and cardiac computed tomography angiography (CCTA) obtained during the initial two years of NCED therapy to study myocardial prefusion reserve (MPR), large cardiovascular vessel changes, left ventricular function, and other cardiovascular parameters. The CROWN cohort will consist of 90 premenopausal women with breast cancer, 67 with HR-positive disease receiving NCED and 23 comparators with HR-negative disease. Participants will undergo three annual CMR scans and 2 CCTA scans during the 2-year study period. After initial activation hurdles, accrual has been brisk, and the study is expected to complete accrual in December 2024. Efforts are in place to encourage participant retention with the study primary outcome, change in MPR between the two groups, to be reported in 2026 to 2027. The results of this study will enable premenopausal women with breast cancer to balance the health burdens of cancer at a young age and treatment-related cardiovascular morbidity. Finally, the tools developed here can be utilized to study cardiovascular risk across a range of cancer types and cancer therapies with the ultimate goals of both developing generalizable risk stratification tools as well as validating interventions which prevent overt cardiovascular compromise.

Estimating incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes using prevalence data: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study.

BACKGROUND: Incidence is one of the most important epidemiologic indices in surveillance. However, determining incidence is complex and requires time-consuming cohort studies or registries with date of diagnosis. Estimating incidence from prevalence using mathematical relationships may facilitate surveillance efforts. The aim of this study was to examine whether a partial differential equation (PDE) can be used to estimate diabetes incidence from prevalence in youth. METHODS: We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific estimates of prevalence in 2001 and 2009 as reported in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. Using these data, a PDE was applied to estimate the average incidence rates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes for the period between 2001 and 2009. Estimates were compared to annual incidence rates observed in SEARCH. Precision of the estimates was evaluated using 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. RESULTS: Despite the long period between prevalence measures, the estimated average incidence rates mirror the average of the observed annual incidence rates. Absolute values of the age-standardized sex- and type-specific mean relative errors are below 8%. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of diabetes can be accurately estimated from prevalence. Since only cross-sectional prevalence data is required, employing this methodology in future studies may result in considerable cost savings.

Quad-shot-immunotherapy: quad-shot radiotherapy with pembrolizumab for advanced/recurrent head and neck cancer.

Effective treatments for advanced/recurrent head and neck squamous-cell carcinoma are limited. For cases not curable by conventional local therapies, the immune checkpoint inhibitor pembrolizumab shows modest response rates. Quad-shot, a hypofractionated palliative radiotherapy regimen (14.8 Gy in four twice-daily fractions), can provide symptomatic relief, contributes to local control and may potentiate the effects of immune checkpoint inhibitors. In this study, 15 patients with advanced/recurrent head and neck squamous-cell carcinoma will be treated with pembrolizumab combined with up to three administrations of quad-shot before cycles four, eight and 13. Outcomes include disease response, survival and treatment toxicity. Correlative multiomics analysis of blood and saliva will identify molecular biomarkers of response to immune checkpoint inhibitor and the immune-related impact of quad-shot. Clinical trial registration: This study (WFBCCC 60320) is registered on NCT04454489 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

Advanced and recurrent head and neck cancers are difficult to treat. Most patients receive systemic therapies, such as chemotherapy or immunotherapy, with modest rates of cancer control. We aim to test the effectiveness of an immunotherapy drug called pembrolizumab in combination with a type of low-dose radiation therapy called quad-shot. Patients will receive pembrolizumab every 3 weeks and will be treated with one to three low-dose radiation therapy courses targeted at their cancer in the head and neck approximately every 12 weeks. We plan to measure how well the cancer responds to treatment, how long this response lasts, how long patients survive and treatment side effects.

The Prognostic and Therapeutic Value of the Mutational Profile of Blood and Tumor Tissue in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to explore the genomic landscape of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in circulation (circulating tumor DNA [ctDNA]) and tumor (tumor tissue DNA [tDNA]) and understand the implications of ctDNA sequencing for prognosis and precision oncology treatments. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective review of 75 patients with HNSCC for both tDNA and ctDNA. Results were analyzed for concordance between tDNA and ctDNA and for their individual and combined association with demographics, survival, and presence and extent of disease at last visit (DLV). RESULTS: The five most frequently altered genes were TP53, CDKN2A, TERT, BRCA2, and NOTCH1. Twenty percent of patients had NOTCH1 alterations in tDNA, with none found in ctDNA. Concordance among altered genes was 13.0%, and 65.3% of patients had actionable ctDNA alterations. ctDNA alterations were significantly associated with decreased overall survival (OS) and presence and extent of DLV. In DNA repair genes, alterations in ctDNA alone and combined with tDNA were significantly associated with decreased OS and presence of DLV. Similar significant associations were found in TP53 for ctDNA alone and combined with tDNA. DNA repair gene alterations in ctDNA and unique ctDNA alterations within partially concordant genes were significantly associated with decreased OS in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: This study illustrates the circulating and tumor genomic profile in the largest HNSCC cohort to date, underscoring the potential utility of ctDNA in prognostication and precision oncology treatment. For the first time, the presence of ctDNA alterations and specific ctDNA sequencing results were shown to be significantly associated with poor prognosis in HNSCC. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The use of precision genomic targeted therapies in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) lags behind many other cancers, and poor survival in advanced stages indicates the urgent need for improved treatment options. This exploratory analysis of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and tumor tissue DNA (tDNA) sequencing in the largest cohort to date of patients with HNSCC provides a novel depiction of the ctDNA genome, with two thirds of patients having actionable ctDNA alterations. This study reports for the first time the prognostic value of ctDNA sequencing, with the presence of ctDNA alterations, specific ctDNA alterations in DNA repair genes and TP53, and unique ctDNA alterations within partially concordant genes predicting poor survival.

Methodological Challenges and Statistical Approaches in the COMprehensive Post-Acute Stroke Services Study.

BACKGROUND: The COMprehensive Post-Acute Stroke Services study was a cluster-randomized pragmatic trial designed to evaluate a comprehensive care transitions model versus usual care. The data collected during this trial were complex and analysis methodology was required that could simultaneously account for the cluster-randomized design, missing patient-level covariates, outcome nonresponse, and substantial nonadherence to the intervention. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to discuss an array of complementary statistical methods to evaluate treatment effectiveness that appropriately addressed the challenges presented by the complex data arising from this pragmatic trial. METHODS: We utilized multiple imputation combined with inverse probability weighting to account for missing covariate and outcome data in the estimation of intention-to-treat effects (ITT). The ITT estimand reflects the effectiveness of assignment to the COMprehensive Post-Acute Stroke Services intervention compared with usual care (ie, it does not take into account intervention adherence). Per-protocol analyses provide complementary information about the effect of treatment, and therefore are relevant for patients to inform their decision-making. We describe estimation of the complier average causal effect using an instrumental variables approach through 2-stage least squares estimation. For all preplanned analyses, we also discuss additional sensitivity analyses. DISCUSSION: Pragmatic trials are well suited to inform clinical practice. Care should be taken to proactively identify the appropriate balance between control and pragmatism in trial design. Valid estimation of ITT and per-protocol effects in the presence of complex data requires application of appropriate statistical methods and concerted efforts to ensure high-quality data are collected.

Assessing Cardiovascular Risk in People Living with HIV: Current Tools and Limitations.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To provide the current state of the development and application of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction tools in people living with HIV (PLWH). RECENT FINDINGS: Several risk prediction models developed on the general population are available to predict CVD risk, the most notable being the US-based pooled cohort equations (PCE), the Framingham risk functions, and the Europe-based SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation). In validation studies in cohorts of PLWH, these models generally underestimate CVD risk, especially in individuals who are younger, women, Black race, or predicted to be at low/intermediate risk. An HIV-specific CVD prediction model, the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model, is available, but its performance is modest, especially in US-based cohorts. Enhancing CVD prediction with novel biomarkers of inflammation or coronary artery calcification is of interest but has not yet been evaluated in PLWH. Finally, studies on CVD risk prediction are lacking in diverse PLWH globally. While available risk models for CVD prediction in PLWH remain suboptimal, clinicians should remain vigilant of higher CVD risk in this population and should use any of these risk scores for risk stratification to guide preventive interventions. Focus on established traditional risk factors such as smoking remains critical in PLWH. Risk prediction functions tailored to PLWH in diverse settings will enhance clinicians' ability to deliver optimal preventive care.

Diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis among youth with type 1 and type 2 diabetes: Results from SEARCH (United States) and YDR (India) registries.

BACKGROUND: There is significant global variation in the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at diagnosis among youth with type 1 diabetes (T1D). However, data for youth with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are limited, even in developed countries. We compared the prevalence of DKA at diagnosis among individuals with T1D and T2D from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth (SEARCH) and the Registry of Youth Onset Diabetes in India (YDR) registries. METHODS: We harmonized the SEARCH and YDR registries to the structure and terminology in the Observational Medical Outcome Partnership Common Data Model. Data used were from youth with T1D and T2D diagnosed before 20 years and newly diagnosed between 2006 and 2012 in YDR and 2009 and 2012 in SEARCH. RESULTS: There were 5366 US youth (4078 with T1D, 1288 with T2D) and 2335 Indian youth (2108 with T1D, 227 with T2D). More than one third of T1D youth enrolled in SEARCH had DKA at diagnosis which was significantly higher than in YDR (35.3% vs 28.7%, P < .0001). The burden of DKA in youth with T1D was significantly higher among younger age groups; this relationship was similar across registries (P = .4). The prevalence of DKA among T2D in SEARCH and YDR were 5.5% and 6.6% respectively (P = .4). CONCLUSIONS: There is significant burden of DKA at diagnosis with T1D among youth from United States and India, especially among the younger age groups. The reasons for this high prevalence are largely unknown but are critical to developing interventions to prevent DKA at diagnosis.

Clinical profile at diagnosis with youth-onset type 1 and type 2 diabetes in two pediatric diabetes registries: SEARCH (United States) and YDR (India).

BACKGROUND: Over the last decades, diabetes in youth has increased in both India and the United States, along with the burden of long-term complications and healthcare costs. However, there are limited standardized population-based data in contemporary youth cohorts for comparison of clinical and demographic characteristics of diabetes for both type 1 (T1D) and type 2 (T2D). METHODS: In partnership, we harmonized demographic and clinical data from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth (SEARCH) registry in the United States and the Registry of People with Diabetes with Youth Age at Onset (YDR) in India to the structure and terminology of the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model. Data were from youth with T1D and T2D, aged <20 years and newly diagnosed between 2006 and 2010. We compared key characteristics across registries using χ2 tests and t-tests. RESULTS: In total, there were 9650 youth with T1D and 2406 youth with T2D from 2006 to 2012. SEARCH youth were diagnosed at younger ages than YDR youth for T1D and T2D (10.0 vs 10.5 years, P < .001 and 14.7 vs 16.1 years, P < .001, respectively). For T2D, SEARCH had a higher proportion of females and significantly lower proportion of youth of high socioeconomic status compared to YDR. For T1D and T2D, SEARCH youth had higher BMI, lower blood pressure, and lower A1c compared to YDR youth. CONCLUSIONS: These data offer insights into the demographic and clinical characteristics of diabetes in youth across the two countries. Further research is needed to better understand why these differences exist.

Treatment regimens and glycosylated hemoglobin levels in youth with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes: Data from SEARCH (United States) and YDR (India) registries.

OBJECTIVE: To compare treatment regimens and glycosylated hemoglobin (A1c) levels in Type 1 (T1D) and Type 2 diabetes (T2D) using diabetes registries from two countries-U.S. SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth (SEARCH) and Indian Registry of youth onset diabetes in India (YDR). METHODS: The SEARCH and YDR data were harmonized to the structure and terminology in the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model. Data used were from T1D and T2D youth diagnosed <20 years between 2006-2012 for YDR, and 2006, 2008, and 2012 for SEARCH. We compared treatment regimens and A1c levels across the two registries. RESULTS: There were 4003 T1D (SEARCH = 1899; YDR = 2104) and 611 T2D (SEARCH = 384; YDR = 227) youth. The mean A1c was higher in YDR compared to SEARCH (T1D:11.0% ± 2.9% vs 7.8% ± 1.7%, P < .001; T2D:9.9% ± 2.8% vs 7.2% ± 2.1%, P < .001). Among T1D youth in SEARCH, 65.1% were on a basal/bolus regimen, whereas in YDR, 52.8% were on once/twice daily insulin regimen. Pumps were used by 16.2% of SEARCH and 1.5% of YDR youth with T1D. Among T2D youth, in SEARCH and YDR, a majority were on metformin only (43.0% vs 30.0%), followed by insulin + any oral hypoglycemic agents (26.3% vs 13.7%) and insulin only (12.8% vs 18.9%), respectively. CONCLUSION: We found significant differences between SEARCH and YDR in treatment patterns in T1D and T2D. A1c levels were higher in YDR than SEARCH youth, for both T1D and T2D, irrespective of the regimens used. Efforts to achieve better glycemic control for youth are urgently needed to reduce the risk of long-term complications.

Glycemic control is associated with dyslipidemia over time in youth with type 2 diabetes: The SEARCH for diabetes in youth study.

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia has been documented in youth with type 2 diabetes. There is a paucity of studies examining dyslipidemia over time in youth with type 2 diabetes and associated risk factors. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate lipids at baseline and follow-up and associated risk factors in youth with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We studied 212 youth with type 2 diabetes at baseline and after an average of 7 years of follow-up in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study. Abnormal lipids were defined as high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) < 35, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) > 100, or triglycerides >150 (all mg/dl). We evaluated participants for progression to abnormal lipids (normal lipids at baseline and abnormal at follow-up), regression (abnormal lipids at baseline and normal at follow-up), stable normal, and stable abnormal lipids over time for HDL-C, LDL-C, and triglycerides. Associations between hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and adiposity over time (area under the curve [AUC]) with progression and stable abnormal lipids were evaluated. RESULTS: HDL-C progressed, regressed, was stable normal, and stable abnormal in 12.3%, 11.3%, 62.3%, and 14.2% of participants, respectively. Corresponding LDL-C percentages were 15.6%, 12.7%, 42.9%, and 28.8% and triglycerides were 17.5%, 10.8%, 55.7%, and 16.0%. Each 1% increase in HbA1c AUC was associated with a 13% higher risk of progression and stable abnormal triglycerides and a 20% higher risk of progression and stable abnormal LDL-C. Higher adiposity AUC was marginally (p = 0.049) associated with abnormal HDL-C. CONCLUSIONS: Progression and stable abnormal LDL-C and triglycerides occur in youth with type 2 diabetes and are associated with higher HbA1c.

COVID-19 and climatic factors: A global analysis.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown if COVID-19 will exhibit seasonal pattern as other diseases e.g., seasonal influenza. Similarly, some environmental factors (e.g., temperature, humidity) have been shown to be associated with transmission of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, but global data on their association with COVID-19 are scarce. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between climatic factors and COVID-19. METHODS: We used multilevel mixed-effects (two-level random-intercepts) negative binomial regression models to examine the association between 7- and 14-day-lagged temperature, humidity (relative and absolute), wind speed and UV index and COVID-19 cases, adjusting for Gross Domestic Products, Global Health Security Index, cloud cover (%), precipitation (mm), sea-level air-pressure (mb), and daytime length. The effects estimates are reported as adjusted rate ratio (aRR) and their corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Data from 206 countries/regions (until April 20, 2020) with ≥100 reported cases showed no association between COVID-19 cases and 7-day-lagged temperature, relative humidity, UV index, and wind speed, after adjusting for potential confounders, but a positive association with 14-day-lagged temperature and a negative association with 14-day-lagged wind speed. Compared to an absolute humidity of <5 g/m3, an absolute humidity of 5-10 g/m3 was associated with a 23% (95% CI: 6-42%) higher rate of COVID-19 cases, while absolute humidity >10 g/m3 did not have a significant effect. These findings were robust in the 14-day-lagged analysis. CONCLUSION: Our results of higher COVID-19 cases (through April 20) at absolute humidity of 5-10 g/m3 may be suggestive of a 'sweet point' for viral transmission, however only controlled laboratory experiments can decisively prove it.

The relationship between traffic-related air pollution exposures and allostatic load score among youth with type 1 diabetes in the SEARCH cohort.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the effects of chronic exposures to particulate and traffic-related air pollution on allostatic load (AL) score, a marker of cumulative biological risk, among youth with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants were drawn from five clinical sites of the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth (SEARCH) study (n = 2338). Baseline questionnaires, anthropometric measures, and a fasting blood test were taken at a clinic visit between 2001 and 2005. AL was operationalized using 10 biomarkers reflecting cardiovascular, metabolic, and inflammatory risk. Annual residential exposures to PM2.5 and proximity to heavily-trafficked major roadways were estimated for each participant. Poisson regression models adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors were conducted for each exposure. RESULTS: No significant associations were observed between exposures to PM2.5 or proximity to traffic and AL score, however analyses were suggestive of effect modification by race for residential distance to heavily-trafficked major roadways (p = 0.02). In stratified analyses, residing <100, 100-<200 and 200-<400 m compared to 400 m or more from heavily-trafficked major roadways was associated with 11%, 26% and 14% increases in AL score, respectively (95% CIs: -4, 29; 9, 45; -1, 30) for non-white participants compared to 6%, -2%, and -2% changes (95% CIs: -2, 15; -10, 7; -8, 6) for white participants. CONCLUSIONS: Among this population of youth with type 1 diabetes, we did not observe consistent relationships between chronic exposures to particulate and traffic-related air pollution and changes in AL score, however associations for traffic-related pollution exposures may differ by race/ethnicity and warrant further examination.

Quantifying Importance of Major Risk Factors for Coronary Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: To optimize preventive strategies for coronary heart disease (CHD), it is essential to understand and appropriately quantify the contribution of its key risk factors. Our objective was to compare the associations of key modifiable CHD risk factors-specifically lipids, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes mellitus, and smoking-with incident CHD events based on their prognostic performance, attributable risk fractions, and treatment benefits, overall and by age. METHODS: Pooled participant-level data from 4 observational cohort studies sponsored by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute were used to create a cohort of 22 626 individuals aged 45 to 84 years who were initially free of cardiovascular disease. Individuals were followed for 10 years from baseline evaluation for incident CHD. Proportional hazards regression was used to estimate metrics of prognostic model performance (likelihood ratio, C index, net reclassification, discrimination slope), hazard ratios, and population attributable fractions for SBP, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), diabetes mellitus, and smoking. Expected absolute risk reductions for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment were assessed. RESULTS: Age, sex, and race capture 63% to 80% of the prognostic performance of cardiovascular risk models. In contrast, adding either SBP, non-HDL-C, diabetes mellitus, or smoking to a model with other risk factors increases the C index by only 0.004 to 0.013. However, primordial prevention could have a substantial effect as demonstrated by population attributable fractions of 28% for SBP≥130 mm Hg and 17% for non-HDL-C≥130 mg/dL. Similarly, lowering the SBP of all individuals to <130 mm Hg or lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 30% would be expected to lower a baseline 10-year CHD risk of 10.7% to 7.0 and 8.0, respectively (absolute risk reductions: 3.7% and 2.7%, respectively). Prognostic performance decreases with age (C indices for age groups 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84 are 0.75, 0.72, 0.66, and 0.62, respectively), whereas absolute risk reductions increase (SBP: 1.1%, 2.3%, 5.4%, 10.3%, respectively; non-HDL-C: 1.1%, 2.0%, 3.7%, 5.9%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Although individual modifiable CHD risk factors contribute only modestly to prognostic performance, our models indicate that eliminating or controlling these individual factors would lead to substantial reductions in total population CHD events. Metrics used to judge importance of risk factors should be tailored to the research objectives.

Baseline 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores Predict Cognitive Function in Older Persons, and Particularly Women, Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated comorbidities increase the risk of cognitive impairment in persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH). Given the potential composite effect of multiple cardiovascular risk factors on cognition, we examined the ability of the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score and the Framingham Heart Study Global CVD risk score (FRS) to predict future cognitive function in older PLWH. METHODS: We constructed linear regression models evaluating the association between baseline 10-year cardiovascular risk scores and cognitive function (measured by a summary z-score, the NPZ-4) at a year 4 follow-up visit. RESULTS: Among 988 participants (mean age, 52 years; 20% women), mean 10-year ASCVD risk score at entry into the cohort was 6.8% (standard deviation [SD], 7.1%) and FRS was 13.1% (SD, 10.7%). In models adjusted only for cognitive function at entry, the ASCVD risk score significantly predicted year 4 NPZ-4 in the entire cohort and after stratification by sex (for every 1% higher ASCVD risk, year 4 NPZ-4 was lower by 0.84 [SD, 0.28] overall, P = .003; lower by 2.17 [SD, 0.67] in women, P = .001; lower by 0.78 [SD, 0.32] in men, P = .016). A similar relationship was observed between FRS and year 4 NPZ-4. In multivariable models, higher 10-year ASCVD risk and FRS predicted lower NPZ-4 in women. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline 10-year ASCVD risk and FRS predicted future cognitive function in older PLWH with well-controlled infection. Cardiovascular risk scores may help to identify PLWH, especially women, who are at risk for worse cognition over time.

Dietary strategies to manage diabetes and glycemic control in youth and young adults with youth-onset type 1 and type 2 diabetes: The SEARCH for diabetes in youth study.

AIMS: Examine associations of dietary strategies used to manage diabetes over time with hemoglobin A1c in youth-onset type 1 or type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth observational study assessed dietary strategies used by 1814 participants with diabetes (n = 1558 type 1, n = 256 type 2) at two to three research visits over 5.5 years (range 1.7-12.2). Participants reported often, sometimes, or never using 10 different dietary strategies, and use over time was categorized into five mutually exclusive groups: often using across visits; started using at later visits; sometimes using across visits; stopped using at later visits; or never using across visits. General multivariable linear models evaluated most recent A1c by use category for each strategy. RESULTS: In type 1 diabetes, A1c was lower among those who starting tracking calories (-0.4%, Tukey P < .05), often counted carbs (-0.8%, Tukey P < .001), or sometimes chose low glycemic index foods (-0.5%, Tukey P = .02) vs those with less use, while participants who never drank more milk had the lowest A1c (-0.5%, Tukey P = .04). In type 2 diabetes, A1c was lower among those who often limited high fat foods (-2.0%, Tukey P = .02) or started counting carbohydrates (-1.7%, Tukey P = .07) than those who did so less. CONCLUSIONS: For several dietary strategies, more frequent use over time was related to lower A1c in youth-onset type 1 and type 2 diabetes, suggesting these strategies can likely support diabetes management for this population. Investigation into factors predicting receipt of advice for specific strategies and corresponding impact on intake might be considered.

Application of net reclassification index to non-nested and point-based risk prediction models: a review.

Much of medical risk prediction involves externally derived prediction equations, nomograms, and point-based risk scores. These settings are vulnerable to misleading findings of incremental value based on versions of the net reclassification index (NRI) in common use. By applying non-nested models and point-based risk scores in the setting of stroke risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), we demonstrate current recommendations for presentation and interpretation of the NRI. We emphasize pitfalls that are likely to occur with point-based risk scores that are easy to neglect when statistical methodology is focused on continuous models. In order to make appropriate decisions about risk prediction and personalized medicine, physicians, researchers, and policy makers need to understand the strengths and limitations of the NRI.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Functions Underestimate Risk in HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is elevated in HIV-infected individuals, with contributions from both traditional and nontraditional risk factors. The accuracy of established CVD risk prediction functions in HIV is uncertain. We sought to assess the performance of 3 established CVD risk prediction functions in a longitudinal cohort of HIV-infected men. METHODS: The FHS (Framingham Heart Study) functions for hard coronary heart disease (FHS CHD) and atherosclerotic CVD (FHS ASCVD) and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD function were applied to the Partners HIV cohort. Risk scores were calculated between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2008. Outcomes included CHD (myocardial infarction or coronary death) for the FHS CHD function and ASCVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary death) for the FHS ASCVD and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD functions. We investigated the accuracy of CVD risk prediction for each function when applied to the HIV cohort using comparison of Cox regression coefficients, discrimination, and calibration. RESULTS: The HIV cohort was comprised of 1272 men followed for a median of 4.4 years. There were 78 (6.1%) ASCVD events; the 5-year incidence rate was 16.4 per 1000 person-years. Discrimination was moderate to poor as indicated by the low c statistic (0.68 for FHS CHD, 0.65 for American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD, and 0.67 for FHS ASCVD). Observed CVD risk exceeded the predicted risk for each of the functions in most deciles of predicted risk. Calibration, or goodness of fit of the models, was consistently poor, with significant χ2P values for all functions. Recalibration did not significantly improve model fit. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular risk prediction functions developed for use in the general population are inaccurate in HIV infection and systematically underestimate risk in a cohort of HIV-infected men. Development of tailored CVD risk prediction functions incorporating traditional CVD risk factors and HIV-specific factors is likely to result in more accurate risk estimation to guide preventative CVD care.