The incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes, time trends and association with the population composition in Sweden: a 40 year follow-up.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: During the 1980s and 1990s, the incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes more than doubled in Sweden, followed by a plateau. In the present 40 year follow-up, we investigated if the incidence remained stable and whether this could be explained by increased migration from countries reporting lower incidences. METHODS: We used 23,143 incident cases of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes reported between 1978 and 2019 to the nationwide, population-based Swedish Childhood Diabetes Registry and population data from Statistics Sweden. Generalised additive models and ANOVA were applied to analyse the effects of onset age, sex, time trends and parental country of birth and interaction effects between these factors. RESULTS: The flattening of the incidence increase seems to remain over the period 2005-2019. When comparing the incidence of type 1 diabetes for all children in Sweden with that for children with both parents born in Sweden, the trends were parallel but at a higher level for the latter. A comparison of the incidence trends between individuals with Swedish backgrounds (high diabetes trait) and Asian backgrounds (low diabetes trait) showed that the Asian subpopulation had a stable increase in incidence over time. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In Sweden, the increase in incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in the late 20th century has been approaching a more stable albeit high level over the last two decades. Increased immigration from countries with lower incidences of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes does not provide a complete explanation for the observed levelling off.

Risk of cancer in young and middle-aged adults with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in Sweden-A prospective cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: In persons with type 1 diabetes, the risk of cancer remains controversial. We wanted to examine the excess risk of cancer in a large population-based cohort diagnosed with type 1 diabetes before 15 years of age. STUDY POPULATION AND METHODS: From 1 July 1977 to 31 December 2013, we prospectively and on a national scale included 18,724 persons (53% men) with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. For each person with type 1 diabetes, we selected four referents, matched for the date at birth and municipality of living at the time when the case developed diabetes. Cases and referents were linked to national registers of cancer and of the cause of death. RESULTS: A total of 125 persons (61% women) with diabetes had 135 different cancers, all diagnosed after the diabetes diagnosis. The median duration from diabetes diagnosis to first cancer diagnosis was 19 years (interquartile range 10-26). The median age at cancer diagnosis in the diabetes group was 28 years (interquartile range 20-35). The overall standardized incidence ratio (95%), using the Swedish general population as referents for women with diabetes was 1.28 (1.02, 1.58) and when comparing women with diabetes with matched referents, we found a hazard ratio of 1.42 (1.10, 1.85). No elevated risk was seen for men. Cancers of the breast and testis were the most common types in women and men respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Women with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes had a small but significantly elevated risk of cancer. No such tendency was seen for men. The reason behind this is unclear.

Perinatal risk factors for type 1 diabetes revisited: a population-based register study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Single-centre studies and meta-analyses have found diverging results as to which early life factors affect the risk of type 1 diabetes during childhood. We wanted to use a large, nationwide, prospective database to further clarify and analyse the associations between perinatal factors and the subsequent risk for childhood-onset type 1 diabetes using a case-control design. METHODS: The Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register was linked to the Swedish Medical Birth Register and National Patient Register, and 14,949 cases with type 1 diabetes onset at ages 0-14 years were compared with 55,712 matched controls born from the start of the Medical Birth Register in 1973 to 2013. After excluding confounders (i.e. children multiple births, those whose mother had maternal diabetes and those with a non-Nordic mother), we used conditional logistic regression analyses to determine risk factors for childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. We used WHO ICD codes for child and maternal diagnoses. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, there were small but statistically significant associations between higher birthweight z score (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.06, 1.10), delivery by Caesarean section (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02, 1.15), premature rupture of membranes (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01, 1.16) and maternal urinary tract infection during pregnancy (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.04, 1.86) and the subsequent risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. Birth before 32 weeks of gestation was associated with a lower risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes compared with full-term infants (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.38, 0.76), whereas birth between 32 and 36 weeks' gestation was associated with a higher risk (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14, 1.35). In subgroup analyses (birth years 1992-2013), maternal obesity was independently associated with subsequent type 1 diabetes in the children (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.15, 1.41) and rendered the association with Caesarean section non-significant. In contrast to previous studies, we found no association of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes with maternal-child blood-group incompatibility, maternal pre-eclampsia, perinatal infections or treatment of the newborn with phototherapy for neonatal jaundice. The proportion of children with neonatal jaundice was significantly higher in the 1973-1982 birth cohort compared with later cohorts. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Perinatal factors make small but statistically significant contributions to the overall risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. Some of these risk factors, such as maternal obesity, may be amendable with improved antenatal care. Better perinatal practices may have affected some previously noted risk factors over time.

Trends and cyclical variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in 26 European centres in the 25 year period 1989-2013: a multicentre prospective registration study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years. METHODS: Age/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989-2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends. RESULTS: Significant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004-2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Despite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given.

Why childhood-onset type 1 diabetes impacts labour market outcomes: a mediation analysis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Previous studies show a negative effect of type 1 diabetes on labour market outcomes such as employment and earnings later in life. However, little is known about the mechanisms underlying these effects. This study aims to analyse the mediating role of adult health, education, occupation and family formation. METHODS: A total of 4179 individuals from the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register and 16,983 individuals forming a population control group born between 1962 and 1979 were followed between 30 and 50 years of age. The total effect of having type 1 diabetes was broken down into a direct effect and an indirect (mediating) effect using statistical mediation analysis. We also analysed whether type 1 diabetes has different effects on labour market outcome between the sexes and across socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Childhood-onset type 1 diabetes had a negative impact on employment (OR 0.68 [95% CI 0.62, 0.76] and OR 0.76 [95% CI 0.67, 0.86]) and earnings (-6%, p < 0.001 and -8%, p < 0.001) for women and men, respectively. Each of the mediators studied contributed to the total effect with adult health and occupational field accounting for the largest part. However, some of the effect could not be attributed to any of the mediators studied and was therefore likely related to other characteristics of the disease that hamper career opportunities. The effect of type 1 diabetes on employment and earnings did not vary significantly according to socioeconomic status of the family (parental education and earnings). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: A large part of the effect of type 1 diabetes on the labour market is attributed to adult health but there are other important mediating factors that need to be considered to reduce this negative effect.

Low mean temperature rather than few sunshine hours are associated with an increased incidence of type 1 diabetes in children.

The well-known north-south gradient and the seasonal variability in incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes indicate climatological factors to have an effect on the onset. Both sunshine hours and a low temperature may be responsible. In the present study we tried to disentangle these effects that tend to be strongly connected. Exposure data were sunshine hours and mean temperature respectively obtained from eleven meteorological stations in Sweden which were linked to incidence data from geographically matched areas. Incident cases during 1983-2008 were retrieved from the population based Swedish childhood diabetes register. We used generalized additive models to analyze the incidence as a function of mean temperature and hours of sun adjusted for the time trend, age and sex. In our data set the correlation between sun hours and temperature was weak (r = 0.36) implying that it was possible to estimate the effect of these variables in a regression model. We fit a general additive model with a smoothing term for the time trend. In the model with sun hours we found no significant effect on T1 incidence (p = 0.17) whereas the model with temperature as predictor was significant (p = 0.05) when adjusting for the time trend, sex and age. Adding sun hours in the model where mean temperature was already present did not change the effect of temperature. There is an association with incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and low mean temperature independent of a possible effect of sunshine hours after adjustment for age, sex and time trend. The findings may mirror the cold effect on insulin resistance and accords with the hypothesis that overload of an already ongoing beta cell destruction may accelerate disease onset.

Five-region study finds no evidence of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in Swedish 11- to 13-year-olds.

AIM: Childhood obesity is now an established public health problem in most developed countries, and there is concern about a parallel increase of type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in overweight Swedish school children from 11 to 13 years of age. METHODS: Body mass index (BMI) was measured in 5528 schoolchildren in the 6th grade, from 11 to 13 years of age, in five different regions in Sweden. Overweight was defined by international age- and sex-specific BMI cut-offs, corresponding to adult BMI cut-offs of 25 kg/m(2) at 18 years of age (ISO-BMI ≥25, n = 1275). Haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) was measured in 1126 children with ISO-BMI ≥25. Children with a Diabetes Control and Complications Trial aligned HbA1c ≥6.1% on two occasions underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to establish the diabetes diagnosis. RESULTS: Of 1126 children with ISO-BMI ≥25, 24 (2.1%) had at least one HbA1c value ≥6.1%. Three of them had HbA1c ≥6.1% on two occasions, and all of them had a normal OGTT. CONCLUSION: In this cross-sectional, population-based screening study of a high-risk group of 11- to 13-year-old Swedish school children, we found no indication of undiagnosed diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance.

Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20: a multicentre prospective registration study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in European centres, and thereby predict the future burden of childhood diabetes in Europe. METHODS: 20 population-based EURODIAB registers in 17 countries registered 29 311 new cases of type 1 diabetes, diagnosed in children before their 15th birthday during a 15-year period, 1989-2003. Age-specific log linear rates of increase were estimated in five geographical regions, and used in conjunction with published incidence rates and population projections to predict numbers of new cases throughout Europe in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. FINDINGS: Ascertainment was better than 90% in most registers. All but two registers showed significant yearly increases in incidence, ranging from 0.6% to 9.3%. The overall annual increase was 3.9% (95% CI 3.6-4.2), and the increases in the age groups 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years were 5.4% (4.8-6.1), 4.3% (3.8-4.8), and 2.9% (2.5-3.3), respectively. The number of new cases in Europe in 2005 is estimated as 15 000, divided between the 0-4 year, 5-9 year, and 10-14 year age-groups in the ratio 24%, 35%, and 41%, respectively. In 2020, the predicted number of new cases is 24 400, with a doubling in numbers in children younger than 5 years and a more even distribution across age-groups than at present (29%, 37%, and 34%, respectively). Prevalence under age 15 years is predicted to rise from 94 000 in 2005, to 160 000 in 2020. INTERPRETATION: If present trends continue, doubling of new cases of type 1 diabetes in European children younger than 5 years is predicted between 2005 and 2020, and prevalent cases younger than 15 years will rise by 70%. Adequate health-care resources to meet these children's needs should be made available. FUNDING: European Community Concerted Action Program.

Confirmed association between neonatal phototherapy or neonatal icterus and risk of childhood asthma.

We have previously demonstrated an association between neonatal phototherapy and/or neonatal icterus and risk of hospitalization for childhood asthma. This study included children who were prescribed anti-asthmatic medication on a population basis to study exposures during the foetal and neonatal period and risk of childhood asthma. The Swedish Medical Birth Register was linked to the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register. Perinatal data for singleton children who were prescribed anti-asthmatic medication (n = 61,256) were compared with corresponding data for all singleton children born in Sweden from 1 January 1990 to 30 June 2003 and surviving to 1 July 2005 (n = 1,338,319). Mantel-Haenszel's odds ratios were calculated after adjustment for various known confounders. Being the first-born child, maternal age above 44 yr, involuntary childlessness for more than 1 yr, maternal smoking during pregnancy, maternal diabetes mellitus of any kind, pre-eclampsia, caesarean section, and instrumental vaginal delivery were all associated with an increased prescription of anti-asthmatic medication during childhood. Preterm birth, low birth weight, being small for gestational age, respiratory problems, mechanical ventilation, and sepsis and/or pneumonia were also associated with increased drug prescriptions. Neonatal phototherapy and/or icterus were risk determinants for children who developed asthma before the age of 12. After controlling for confounders, the odds ratio for phototherapy and/or icterus remained at 1.30 (95% confidence interval 1.16-1.47). In conclusion, this large population-based study confirms an association between some maternal and perinatal factors and childhood asthma, including neonatal phototherapy and/or icterus.

Worldwide estimates of incidence, prevalence and mortality of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9th edition.

AIMS: This article describes the methods, results and limitations of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas 9th edition estimates of worldwide numbers of cases of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents. METHODS: Most information in the published literature is in the form of incidence rates derived from registers of newly-diagnosed cases. After systematic review of the published literature and recent conference abstracts, identified studies were quality graded. If no study was available, extrapolation was used to assign a country the rate from an adjacent country with similar characteristics. Estimates of incident cases were obtained by applying incidence rates to United Nations 2019 population estimates. Estimates of prevalent cases were derived from incidence rates after making allowance for higher mortality rates in less-developed countries. RESULTS: Incidence rates were available for 45% of countries (ranging from 6% in the sub-Saharan Africa region to 77% in the European region). Worldwide annual incidence estimates were 98,200 (128,900) new cases in the under 15 year (under 20 year) age-groups. Corresponding prevalence estimates were 600,900 (1,110,100) existing cases. Compared with estimates in earlier Atlas editions, numbers have increased in most IDF regions, reflecting incidence rate increases, but prevalence estimates have decreased in sub-Saharan Africa because allowance has been made for increased mortality in those with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Worldwide estimates of numbers of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes continue to increase.

Decreasing Cumulative Incidence of End-Stage Renal Disease in Young Patients With Type 1 Diabetes in Sweden: A 38-Year Prospective Nationwide Study.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetic nephropathy is a serious complication of type 1 diabetes. Recent studies indicate that end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence has decreased or that the onset of ESRD has been postponed; therefore, we wanted to analyze the incidence and time trends of ESRD in Sweden. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In this study, patients with duration of type 1 diabetes >14 years and age at onset of diabetes 0-34 years were included. Three national diabetes registers were used: the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register, the Diabetes Incidence Study in Sweden, and the National Diabetes Register. The Swedish Renal Registry, a national register on renal replacement therapy, was used to identify patients who developed ESRD. RESULTS: We found that the cumulative incidence of ESRD in Sweden was low after up to 38 years of diabetes duration (5.6%). The incidence of ESRD was lower in patients with type 1 diabetes onset in 1991-2001 compared with onset in 1977-1984 and 1985-1990, independent of diabetes duration. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing ESRD in Sweden in this population is still low and also seems to decrease with time.

A functional polymorphism in the manganese superoxide dismutase gene and diabetic nephropathy.

Oxidative stress has been suggested to contribute to the development of diabetic nephropathy. Manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) protects the cells from oxidative damage by scavenging free radicals. The demand for antioxidants is increased by smoking, which could disturb the balance between antioxidants and radicals. The present study aimed to determine whether a valine/alanine polymorphism in MnSOD (V16A, rs4880), alone or in combination with smoking, can contribute to development of diabetic nephropathy in 1,510 Finnish and Swedish patients with type 1 diabetes. Overt diabetic nephropathy (n = 619) was defined as having an albumin excretion rate (AER) >200 microg/min or renal replacement therapy; incipient diabetic nephropathy was defined as having an AER of 20-200 microg/min (n = 336). The control subjects had diabetes duration of >or=20 years, without albuminuria (AER <20 microg/min) and without antihypertensive treatment (n = 555). In addition to male sex and elevated A1C, smoking was significantly associated with diabetic nephropathy (overt plus incipient), odds ratio (OR) 2.00 (95% CI 1.60-2.50). When controlling for age at onset, diabetes duration, A1C, smoking, and sex, the Val/Val genotype was associated with an increase in risk of diabetic nephropathy (1.32 [1.00-1.74], P = 0.049). When evaluating the combined effect of genotype and smoking, we used logistic regression with stratification according to smoking status and genotype. The high-risk group (ever smoking plus Val/Val genotype) had 2.52 times increased risk of diabetic nephropathy (95% CI 1.73-3.69) compared with the low-risk group, but no departure from additivity was found. Our results indicate that smoking and homozygosity for the MnSOD Val allele is associated with an increased risk of diabetic nephropathy, which supports the hypothesis that oxidative stress contributes to the development of diabetic nephropathy.

Genetic association analysis of the adiponectin polymorphisms in type 1 diabetes with and without diabetic nephropathy.

OBJECTIVE: Adiponectin [adipocyte C1q and collagen domain containing (ACDC)] is the most abundant adipose-specific protein. It is beneficial in that it improves insulin sensitivity and mitigates vascular damage, in addition to the possibility of it having anti-inflammatory properties. Clinical evidences demonstrate that serum adiponectin concentrations are increased in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) as well as in patients with microvascular complications. However, the genetic influence of the ACDC gene in T1D and diabetic microvascular complications is still unclear. The present study aims to evaluate the association of the ACDC genetic variation in T1D and diabetic nephropathy (DN). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ten single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the ACDC gene were genotyped in 432 T1D patients (of which, 196 had DN) and 187 nondiabetic control subjects, who were all Swedish Caucasians, by using dynamic allele specific hybridization. RESULTS: Single-marker association analysis demonstrated that SNPs +45G15G(T/G) and +276(G/T) were strongly associated with T1D [P=.002, OR=1.855 (1.266-2.717) and P=.001, OR=1.694 (1.337-2.147)]. Further analysis for haplotypes of these two SNPs indicated that one of the common haplotype (T_G) was strongly associated with T1D [P<.001, OR=1.769 (1.430-2.188)]. However, there was no significant difference in the allele frequencies of these two SNPs between the groups of T1D patients with nephropathy and the patients without nephropathy. CONCLUSIONS: The present study thus suggests that SNPs +45G15G(T/G) and +276(G/T) in the ACDC gene are associated with T1D but not with DN among Swedish Caucasians.

Age at onset of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes and the development of end-stage renal disease: a nationwide population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of age at onset on the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) due to diabetic nephropathy in a nationwide population-based cohort with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A record linkage between two nationwide registers, the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Registry, including 12,032 cases with childhood-onset diabetes, and the Swedish Registry for Active Treatment of Uraemia was performed. Log-rank test was used to test differences between cumulative risk curves of developing ESRD due to diabetic nephropathy in three different strata of age at onset (0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years). RESULTS: At a maximum follow-up of 27 years, 33 patients had developed ESRD due to diabetic nephropathy and all had a diabetes duration >15 years. In total, 4,414 patients had diabetes duration >15 years, and thus the risk in this cohort to develop ESRD was 33 of 4,414 (0.7%). A significant difference in risk of developing ESRD was found between the youngest (0-4 years) and the two older (5-9 and 10-14 years) age-at-onset strata (P = 0.03 and P = 0.001, respectively). A significant difference in the risk of developing ESRD was also found between children with prepubertal (0-4 and 5-9 years, n = 2,424) and pubertal (10-14 years, n = 2000) onset of diabetes (P = 0.002). No patient with onset of diabetes before 5 years of age had developed ESRD. CONCLUSIONS: With a median duration of 21 years in this population-based Swedish cohort with childhood-onset diabetes, <1% of the patients had developed ESRD due to diabetic nephropathy, and a prepubertal onset of diabetes seems to prolong the time to development of ESRD.

Mortality in childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the age- and sex-specific mortality in a cohort of young type 1 diabetic patients and to analyze the causes of death with special focus on suicide, accidents, and unexplained deaths. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A population-based incident childhood diabetes register, covering onset cases since 1 July 1977, was linked to the Swedish Cause of Death Register up to 31 December 2000. The official Swedish population register was used to calculate age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (SMRs), excluding neonatal deaths. To analyze excess risks for specific diagnoses, case subjects were compared with five nondiabetic control subjects, matched by age, sex, and year of death. Death certificates were collected for all case and control subjects. For case subjects with an unclear diagnosis, hospital records and/or forensic autopsy reports were obtained. RESULTS: Mean age- and sex-SMR was 2.15 (95% CI 1.70-2.68) and tended to be higher among females (2.65 vs. 1.93, P = 0.045). Mean age at death was 15.2 years (range 1.2-27.3) and mean duration 8.2 years (0-20.7). Twenty-three deaths were clearly related to diabetes; 20 died of diabetic ketoacidosis. Only two case subjects died with late diabetes complications (acute coronary infarction). Thirty-three case subjects died with a diagnosis not directly related to diabetes; 7 of them committed suicide, and 14 died from accidents. There was no significant difference in traffic accidents (odds ratio 1.02 [95% CI 0.40-2.37]). Obvious suicide tended to be increased but not statistically significantly so (1.55 [0.54-3.89]). Seventeen diabetic case subjects were found deceased in bed without any cause of death found at forensic autopsy. Only two of the control subjects died of similar unexplained deaths. CONCLUSIONS: In a well-developed health care system, there is still a significant excess mortality in young type 1 diabetic patients. We confirm a very large proportion of unexplained deaths in bed, which should be further studied. There is no clear excess death rate caused by suicide or traffic accidents among young diabetic subjects.