A risk score including microdeletions improves relapse prediction for standard and medium risk precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children.

To prevent relapse, high risk paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is treated very intensively. However, most patients who eventually relapse have standard or medium risk ALL with low minimal residual disease (MRD) levels. We analysed recurrent microdeletions and other clinical prognostic factors in a cohort of 475 uniformly treated non-high risk precursor B-cell ALL patients with the aim of better predicting relapse and refining risk stratification. Lower relapse-free survival at 7 years (RFS) was associated with IKZF1 intragenic deletions (P < 0·0001); P2RY8-CRLF2 gene fusion (P < 0·0004); Day 33 MRD>5 × 10-5 (P < 0·0001) and High National Cancer Institute (NCI) risk (P < 0·0001). We created a predictive model based on a risk score (RS) for deletions, MRD and NCI risk, extending from an RS of 0 (RS0) for patients with no unfavourable factors to RS2 +  for patients with 2 or 3 high risk factors. RS0, RS1, and RS2 +  groups had RFS of 93%, 78% and 49%, respectively, and overall survival (OS) of 99%, 91% and 71%. The RS provided greater discrimination than MRD-based risk stratification into standard (89% RFS, 96% OS) and medium risk groups (79% RFS, 91% OS). We conclude that this RS may enable better early therapeutic stratification and thus improve cure rates for childhood ALL.

Persistent MRD before and after allogeneic BMT predicts relapse in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

Minimal residual disease (MRD) during early chemotherapy is a powerful predictor of relapse in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and is used in children to determine eligibility for allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in first (CR1) or later complete remission (CR2/CR3). Variables affecting HSCT outcome were analysed in 81 children from the ANZCHOG ALL8 trial. The major cause of treatment failure was relapse, with a cumulative incidence of relapse at 5 years (CIR) of 32% and treatment-related mortality of 8%. Leukaemia-free survival (LFS) and overall survival (OS) were similar for HSCT in CR1 (LFS 62%, OS 83%, n = 41) or CR2/CR3 (LFS 60%, OS 72%, n = 40). Patients achieving bone marrow MRD negativity pre-HSCT had better outcomes (LFS 83%, OS 92%) than those with persistent MRD pre-HSCT (LFS 41%, OS 64%, P < 0·0001) or post-HSCT (LFS 35%, OS 55%, P < 0·0001). Patients with B-other ALL had more relapses (CIR 50%, LFS 41%) than T-ALL and the main precursor-B subtypes including BCR-ABL1, KMT2A (MLL), ETV6-RUNX1 (TEL-AML1) and hyperdiploidy >50. A Cox multivariate regression model for LFS retained both B-other ALL subtype (hazard ratio 4·1, P = 0·0062) and MRD persistence post-HSCT (hazard ratio 3·9, P = 0·0070) as independent adverse prognostic variables. Persistent MRD could be used to direct post-HSCT therapy.