Global burden of early-onset osteoarthritis, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

OBJECTIVES: Early-onset osteoarthritis (OA) is an emerging health issue amidst the escalating prevalence of overweight and obesity. However, there are scant data on its disease, economic burden and attributable burden due to high body mass index (BMI). METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, we examined the numbers of incident cases, prevalent cases, years lived with disability (YLDs) and corresponding age-standardised rates for early-onset OA (diagnosis before age 55) from 1990 to 2019. The case definition was symptomatic and radiographically confirmed OA in any joint. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of the age-standardised rates were calculated to quantify changes. We estimated the economic burden of early-onset OA and attributable burden to high BMI. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the global incident cases, prevalent cases and YLDs of early-onset OA were doubled. 52.31% of incident OA cases in 2019 were under 55 years. The age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence and YLDs increased globally and for countries in all Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles (all AAPCs>0, p<0.05), with the fastest increases in low-middle SDI countries. 98.04% of countries exhibited increasing trends in all age-standardised rates. Early-onset OA accounts for US$46.17 billion in healthcare expenditure and US$60.70 billion in productivity loss cost in 2019. The attributable proportion of high BMI for early-onset OA increased globally from 9.41% (1990) to 15.29% (2019). CONCLUSIONS: Early-onset OA is a developing global health problem, causing substantial economic costs in most countries. Targeted implementation of cost-effective policies and preventive intervention is required to address the growing health challenge.

EULAR recommendations for the non-pharmacological core management of hip and knee osteoarthritis: 2023 update.

INTRODUCTION: Hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) are increasingly common with a significant impact on individuals and society. Non-pharmacological treatments are considered essential to reduce pain and improve function and quality of life. EULAR recommendations for the non-pharmacological core management of hip and knee OA were published in 2013. Given the large number of subsequent studies, an update is needed. METHODS: The Standardised Operating Procedures for EULAR recommendations were followed. A multidisciplinary Task Force with 25 members representing 14 European countries was established. The Task Force agreed on an updated search strategy of 11 research questions. The systematic literature review encompassed dates from 1 January 2012 to 27 May 2022. Retrieved evidence was discussed, updated recommendations were formulated, and research and educational agendas were developed. RESULTS: The revised recommendations include two overarching principles and eight evidence-based recommendations including (1) an individualised, multicomponent management plan; (2) information, education and self-management; (3) exercise with adequate tailoring of dosage and progression; (4) mode of exercise delivery; (5) maintenance of healthy weight and weight loss; (6) footwear, walking aids and assistive devices; (7) work-related advice and (8) behaviour change techniques to improve lifestyle. The mean level of agreement on the recommendations ranged between 9.2 and 9.8 (0-10 scale, 10=total agreement). The research agenda highlighted areas related to these interventions including adherence, uptake and impact on work. CONCLUSIONS: The 2023 updated recommendations were formulated based on research evidence and expert opinion to guide the optimal management of hip and knee OA.

Serum levels of hydroxylated metabolites of arachidonic acid cross-sectionally and longitudinally predict knee pain progression: an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between serum oxylipins, which regulate tissue repair and pain signalling, and knee pain/radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) at baseline and knee pain at 3 year follow-up. METHOD: Baseline, and 3 year follow-up, knee pain phenotypes were assessed from 154 participants in the Knee Pain in the Community (KPIC) cohort study. Serum and radiographic Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) and Nottingham line drawing atlas OA scores were collected at baseline. Oxylipin levels were quantified using liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. Associations were measured by linear regression and receiver operating characteristics (ROC). RESULTS: Serum levels of 8,9-epoxyeicosatrienoic acid (EET) (ß(95% confidence intervals (CI)) = 1.809 (-0.71 to 2.91)), 14,15-dihydroxyeicosatrienoic acid (DHET) (ß(95%CI) = 0.827 (0.34-1.31)), and 12-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (HETE) (ß(95%CI) = 4.090 (1.92-6.26)) and anandamide (ß(95%CI) = 3.060 (1.35-4.77)) were cross-sectionally associated with current self-reported knee pain scores (numerical rating scale (NRS) item 3, average pain). Serum levels of 9- (ß(95%CI) = 0.467 (0.18-0.75)) and 15-HETE (ß(95%CI) = 0.759 (0.29-1.22)), 14-hydroxydocosahexaenoic acid (ß(95%CI) = 0.483(0.24-0.73)), and the ratio of 8,9-EET:DHET (ß(95%CI) = 0.510(0.19-0.82)) were cross-sectionally associated with KL scores. Baseline serum concentrations of 8,9-EET (ß(95%CI) = 2.166 (0.89-3.44)), 5,6-DHET (ß(95%CI) = 152.179 (69.39-234.97)), and 5-HETE (ß(95%CI) = 1.724 (0.677-2.77) showed positive longitudinal associations with follow-up knee pain scores (NRS item 3, average pain). Combined serum 8,9-EET and 5-HETE concentration showed the strongest longitudinal association (ß(95%CI) = 1.156 (0.54-1.77) with pain scores at 3 years, and ROC curves distinguished between participants with no pain and high pain scores at follow-up (area under curve (95%CI) = 0.71 (0.61-0.82)). CONCLUSIONS: Serum levels of a combination of hydroxylated metabolites of arachidonic acid may have prognostic utility for knee pain, providing a potential novel approach to identify people who are more likely to have debilitating pain in the future.

Melatonin is a potential novel analgesic agent for osteoarthritis: Evidence from cohort studies in humans and preclinical research in rats.

Melatonin exhibits potential for pain relief and long-term safety profile. We examined the analgesic effects of oral melatonin on osteoarthritis (OA) and investigated the underlying mechanism. Using data from a UK primary care database, we conducted a cohort study in individuals with OA to compare the number of oral analgesic prescriptions and the risk of knee/hip replacement between melatonin initiators and hypnotic benzodiazepines (i.e., active comparator) initiators using quantile regression models and Cox-proportional hazard models, respectively. To elucidate causation, we examined the effects of melatonin on pain behaviors and explored several metabolites that may serve as potential regulatory agents of melatonin in the monoiodoacetate rat model of OA. Using data from another community-based cohort study, that is, the Xiangya OA Study, we verified the association between the key serum metabolite and incident symptomatic knee OA. Compared with the hypnotic benzodiazepines cohort (n = 8135), the melatonin cohort (n = 813) had significantly fewer subsequent prescriptions of oral analgesics (50th percentile: 5 vs. 7, 75th percentile: 19 vs. 29, and 99th percentile: 140 vs. 162) and experienced a lower risk of knee/hip replacement (hazard ratio = 0.47, 95% Cl: 0.30-0.73) during the follow-up period. In rats, oral melatonin alleviated pain behaviors and increased serum levels of glycine. There was an inverse association between baseline serum glycine levels and the risk of incident symptomatic knee OA in humans (n = 760). In conclusion, our findings indicate that oral melatonin shows significant potential to be a novel treatment for OA pain. The potential role of glycine in its analgesic mechanism warrants further investigation.

Medio-dorsal thalamic dysconnectivity in chronic knee pain: A possible mechanism for negative affect and pain comorbidity.

The reciprocal interaction between pain and negative affect is acknowledged but pain-related alterations in brain circuits involved in this interaction, such as the mediodorsal thalamus (MDThal), still require a better understanding. We sought to investigate the relationship between MDThal circuitry, negative affect and pain severity in chronic musculoskeletal pain. For these analyses, participants with chronic knee pain (CKP, n = 74) and without (n = 36) completed magnetic resonance imaging scans and questionnaires. Seed-based MDThal functional connectivity (FC) was compared between groups. Within CKP group, we assessed the interdependence of MDThal FC with negative affect. Finally, post hoc moderation analysis explored whether burden of pain influences affect-related MDThal FC. The CKP group showed altered MDThal FC to hippocampus, ventromedial prefrontal cortex and subgenual anterior cingulate. Furthermore, in CKP group, MDThal connectivity correlated significantly with negative affect in several brain regions, most notably the medial prefrontal cortex, and this association was stronger with increasing pain burden and absent in pain-free controls. In conclusion, we demonstrate mediodorsal thalamo-cortical dysconnectivity in chronic pain with areas linked to mood disorders and associations of MDThal FC with negative affect. Moreover, burden of pain seems to enhance affect sensitivity of MDThal FC. These findings suggest mediodorsal thalamic network changes as possible drivers of the detrimental interplay between chronic pain and negative affect.

Comparative effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccines against COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Both BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines have shown high efficacy against COVID-19 in randomized controlled trials. However, their comparative effectiveness against COVID-19 is unclear in the real world. We evaluated the comparative effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccines against COVID-19 in the UK general population. METHODS: We emulated a target trial using IQVIA Medical Research Database (IMRD), an electronic primary care database from the UK (2021). We included 1,311,075 participants, consisting of 637,549 men and 673,526 women age≥18 years, who received vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 between January 1 and August 31, 2021. The outcomes consisted of confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalisation for COVID-19 and death from COVID-19 in the IMRD. We performed a cox-proportional hazard model to compare the risk of each outcome variable between the two vaccines adjusting for potential confounders with time-stratified overlap weighting of propensity score (PS). RESULTS: During a mean of 6.7 months of follow-up, 20,070 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in individuals who received BNT162b2 vaccine (PS weighted incidence rate: 3.65 per 1000 person-months), and 31,611 SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in those who received ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (PS weighted incidence rate: 5.25 per 1000 person-months). The time-stratified PS weighted rate difference of SARS-CoV-2 infection for BNT162b2 group vs. ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group was -1.60 per 1000 person-months (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.76 to -1.43 per 1000 person-months), and the hazard ratio was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.68 to 0.71). The results were similar across the stratum of sex, age (<65 and ≥65 years), and study periods (i.e., alpha-variant predominance period and delta-variant predominance period). The PS weighted incidence of hospitalisation for COVID-19 was also lower in the BNT162b2 vaccine group than that in the ChAdOx1 vaccine group (RD: -0.09, 95%CI: -0.13 to -0.05 per 1000 person-months; HR: 0.65, 95%CI: 0.57 to 0.74). No significant difference in the risk of death from COVID-19 was observed between the two comparison groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study, the BNT162b2 vaccine appears to be more efficacious than the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalisation for COVID-19 but not death from COVID-19.

The 2023 ACR/EULAR classification criteria for calcium pyrophosphate deposition disease.

OBJECTIVE: Calcium pyrophosphate deposition (CPPD) disease is prevalent and has diverse presentations, but there are no validated classification criteria for this symptomatic arthritis. The American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and EULAR have developed the first-ever validated classification criteria for symptomatic CPPD disease. METHODS: Supported by the ACR and EULAR, a multinational group of investigators followed established methodology to develop these disease classification criteria. The group generated lists of candidate items and refined their definitions, collected de-identified patient profiles, evaluated strengths of associations between candidate items and CPPD disease, developed a classification criteria framework, and used multi-criterion decision analysis to define criteria weights and a classification threshold score. The criteria were validated in an independent cohort. RESULTS: Among patients with joint pain, swelling, or tenderness (entry criterion) whose symptoms are not fully explained by an alternative disease (exclusion criterion), the presence of crowned dens syndrome or calcium pyrophosphate crystals in synovial fluid are sufficient to classify a patient as having CPPD disease. In the absence of these findings, a score>56 points using weighted criteria, comprising clinical features, associated metabolic disorders, and results of laboratory and imaging investigations, can be used to classify as CPPD disease. These criteria had a sensitivity of 92.2% and specificity of 87.9% in the derivation cohort (190 CPPD cases, 148 mimickers), whereas sensitivity was 99.2% and specificity was 92.5% in the validation cohort (251 CPPD cases, 162 mimickers). CONCLUSION: The 2023 ACR/EULAR CPPD disease classification criteria have excellent performance characteristics and will facilitate research in this field.

Upregulated expression of FFAR2 and SOC3 genes is associated with gout.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the expression of Free fatty acid receptor 2 (FFAR2) and Suppressor of cytokine signalling 3 (SOCS3) genes in asymptomatic hyperuricaemia (AH), AH with MSU crystal deposition, inter-critical gout and gout flare. METHODS: Study participants (n = 120) comprised 34 people with serum urate (SU) <360 µmol/l, 69 with AH ± MSU crystal deposition and 17 with a gout flare. Sixteen of the 17 patients with a gout flare attended a second visit 6-12 weeks later. Gene expression levels were assessed using RT-qPCR and results computed as fold changes (FC) after normalization to the reference gene. RESULTS: FFAR2 was significantly upregulated during gout flares (FC = 2.9) compared with normal SU, AH, and AH + MSU crystal deposition (FC = 1.1, P < 0.0001 for each comparison). FFAR2 was also significantly upregulated during inter-critical gout (FC = 1.8) compared with normal SU, AH and AH + MSU (FC = 1.1, P < 0.001 for each comparison). SOCS3 was significantly upregulated during gout flares (FC = 3.4) compared with normal SU, AH, and AH + MSU crystal deposition (FC = 1.1, 1.1 and 1.2, respectively, P < 0.0001 for each comparison). SOCS3 was also upregulated during inter-critical gout (FC = 2.1) compared with normal SU (P = 0.02) and AH (P = 0.006) (FC = 1.1 and 1.2, respectively). FFAR2 expression was upregulated during gout flare compared with inter-critical gout and SOCS3 expression showed negative correlation with flare duration (r = -0.49, P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: FFAR2 upregulation is associated with gout and may trigger gout flares. SOCS3 may have a role in amelioration of gout flares.

Feasibility of conducting a cohort randomised controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of a nurse-led package of care for knee pain.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the feasibility of conducting a cohort randomised-controlled trial (RCT) of a nurse-led package of care for knee pain and determine treatment sequence for use in a future trial. METHODS: Open label, three-arm, single-centre, mixed-methods, feasibility cohort RCT. Adults aged ≥40 years with moderate-to-severe knee pain for ≥3 months were eligible. Participants were randomised into groups A (non-pharmacological treatment first), B (pharmacological treatment first), or group C (usual care). The intervention was delivered over 26-weeks. Outcomes were dropout rate, recruitment rate, intervention fidelity, ability to collect outcome data and treatment acceptability. RESULTS: Seventeen participants were randomised and enrolled into each of groups A and B (5.2% recruitment rate), and 174 randomised to group C. Participant characteristics at randomisation were comparable across the three arms. COVID-19 paused the study from March-November-2020. Participants enrolled in groups A and B before March-2020 were withdrawn at restart. Of the 20 participants enrolled after restart, 18 completed the study (10% dropout). The nurse reported delivering most aspects of the intervention with high fidelity. Participants viewed the package of care as structured, supportive and holistic, they learnt about self-managing knee pain, and could engage with and follow the non-pharmacological treatment. Most found the non-pharmacological treatment more useful than the pharmacological treatment, preferring to receive it before or alongside analgesia. Many self-reported questionnaires were not fully completed. CONCLUSIONS: The nurse-led package of care for knee pain was acceptable with low dropout, although the cohort RCT design may not be feasible for a definitive trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov; NCT03670706.

Dysbiosis of gut microbiota, a potential mediator of bile acid compositions, and prevalence of hand synovitis: a community-based study.

OBJECTIVES: Hand synovitis, a potentially modifiable pathological lesion, is common and associated with pain and hand OA; nevertheless, its pathogenesis remains uncertain. This study investigated the relationship between gut microbiota dysbiosis and hand synovitis prevalence and evaluated whether bile acids mediate the association. METHODS: Participants were derived from a community-based observational study. Synovitis in each hand joint was assessed using US. Gut microbiota was evaluated using 16S ribosomal RNA amplicon sequencing on faeces, and plasma bile acids were measured by HPLC mass spectrometry. We examined the relationship between gut microbiota dysbiosis and hand synovitis prevalence, as well as the extent to which bile acids were involved in the association. RESULTS: Among 1336 participants (mean age: 63.2 years; women: 58.8%), 18.3% had prevalent hand synovitis (unilateral in 13.6% and bilateral in 4.7%). ß-diversity, but not α-diversity, of gut microbiota was significantly associated with prevalent hand synovitis. Higher relative abundance of the genus Prevotella and lower relative abundance of the genus Blautia were significantly associated with the prevalence of hand synovitis. Similar associations were also observed for laterality and the number of joints affected by hand synovitis. The association between Prevotella and hand synovitis was partially mediated through its effect on tauroursodeoxycholic acid and glycoursodeoxycholic acid, the mediation proportions being 25.7% and 21.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that gut microbiota dysbiosis is associated with the prevalence of hand synovitis. Such an association appears to be partially mediated by plasma bile acids.

Pseudodiagnosticity and preference hierarchy in a search-only inference paradigm.

Bayes' Theorem provides a rationality-standard for information search when there are two mutually exclusive hypotheses and one or more statistical cues pertaining to the likelihoods of the hypotheses. Prior research shows that when people already have a cue pertaining to a hypothesis and are asked to seek additional information to help decide which hypothesis is correct, they tend to exhibit a specific form of pseudodiagnosticity: Rather than seek information that would assess the same cue relative to an alternative hypothesis, they tend to seek information about how a second cue would pertain to the first hypothesis. For example, if people are told that 70% of genuine paintings are landscapes, they then seek to know the percentage of genuine paintings that are watercolor rather than the percentage of fake paintings that are landscapes. However, this response pattern has sometimes been violated in a way that may depend on the cues' numerical values (e.g., 70% vs. 30%), thus raising a question as to the nature of the bias: Does the selection bias characterize the search process per se, or does it reflect the manner in which people utilize already-obtained percentage information? To address these issues, we employed a novel, search-only judgment paradigm in which people were asked to search for cues and to select them without ever obtaining the cues' percentage values. The results confirmed a tendency toward same-hypothesis pseudodiagnosticity both in primary (i.e., most-preferred) and secondary preference, and supported a model in which pseudodiagnosticity can proceed with or without numerical cue data.

Comparative efficacy of exercise therapy and oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and paracetamol for knee or hip osteoarthritis: a network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical guidelines recommend exercise as a core treatment for knee or hip osteoarthritis (OA). However, how its analgesic effect compares to analgesics, for example, oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and paracetamol-the most commonly used analgesics for OA, remains unknown. DESIGN: Network meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library and Web of Science from database inception to January 2022. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing exercise therapy with oral NSAIDs and paracetamol directly or indirectly in knee or hip OA. RESULTS: A total of n=152 RCTs (17 431 participants) were included. For pain relief, there was no difference between exercise and oral NSAIDs and paracetamol at or nearest to 4 (standardised mean difference (SMD)=-0.12, 95% credibility interval (CrI) -1.74 to 1.50; n=47 RCTs), 8 (SMD=0.22, 95% CrI -0.05 to 0.49; n=2 RCTs) and 24 weeks (SMD=0.17, 95% CrI -0.77 to 1.12; n=9 RCTs). Similarly, there was no difference between exercise and oral NSAIDs and paracetamol in functional improvement at or nearest to 4 (SMD=0.09, 95% CrI -1.69 to 1.85; n=40 RCTs), 8 (SMD=0.06, 95% CrI -0.20 to 0.33; n=2 RCTs) and 24 weeks (SMD=0.05, 95% CrI -1.15 to 1.24; n=9 RCTs). CONCLUSIONS: Exercise has similar effects on pain and function to that of oral NSAIDs and paracetamol. Given its excellent safety profile, exercise should be given more prominence in clinical care, especially in older people with comorbidity or at higher risk of adverse events related to NSAIDs and paracetamol.CRD42019135166.

Prevalence and distribution of ultrasound-detected hand synovial abnormalities in a middle-aged and older population.

OBJECTIVE: Synovial abnormalities are modifiable targets for hand pain and osteoarthritis. We examined the prevalence and distribution of ultrasound-detected hand synovial abnormalities in a community-derived sample of older people in China. METHODS: Within the Xiangya Osteoarthritis Study, a community-based study, we assessed synovial hypertrophy (SH), joint effusion, and Power Doppler signal (PDS) on all fingers and thumbs of both hands using standardized ultrasound examinations (score: 0-3). We assessed distribution patterns of SH and effusion using χ2-test and interrelationships of SH and effusion in different joints and hands by generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Among 3,623 participants (mean age: 64.4 years; women: 58.1%), prevalence of SH, effusion and PDS were 85.5%, 87.3% and 1.5%, respectively. Prevalence of SH, effusion and PDS increased with age, was higher in the right hand than in the left hand and was more common in proximal than in distal hand joints. SH and effusion often occurred in multiple joints (P < 0.001). SH in one joint was strongly associated with presence of SH in the same joint of the opposite hand (odds ratio [OR]= 6.60, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.19-7.03) followed by SH in other joints in the same row, (OR=5.70, 95%CI: 5.32-6.11), and then other joints in the same ray of the same hand (OR=1.49, 95%CI: 1.39-1.60). Similar patterns were observed for effusion. CONCLUSION: Hand synovial abnormalities are common among older people, often affect multiple hand joints and present a unique pattern. These findings suggest both systemic and mechanical factors play roles in their occurrence.

Reliability of detection of ultrasound and MRI features of hand osteoarthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically review the literature on inter- and intra-rater reliability of scoring US and MRI changes in hand OA. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINHAL, Web of Science and AMED were searched from inception to January 2020. Kappa (κ), weighted kappa (κw) and intra-class correlation coefficients for dichotomous, semi-quantitative and summated scores, respectively, and their 95% CI were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed and reliability estimates were interpreted using the Landis-Koch classification. RESULTS: Fifty studies met the inclusion criteria (29 US, 17 MRI, 4 involving both modalities). The pooled κ (95% CI) for inter-rater reliability was substantial for US-detected osteophytes [0.66 (0.54, 0.79)], grey-scale synovitis [0.64 (0.32, 0.97)] and power Doppler [0.76, (0.47, 1.05)], whereas intra-rater reliability was almost perfect for osteophytes [0.82 (0.80, 0.84)], central bone erosions (CBEs) [0.83 (0.78, 0.89)] and effusion [0.83 (0.74, 0.91)], and substantial for grey-scale synovitis [0.64 (0.49, 0.79)] and power Doppler [0.70 (0.59, 0.80)]. Inter-rater reliability for dichotomous assessment was substantial for MRI-detected CBEs [0.75 (0.67, 0.83)] and synovitis [0.69 (0.51, 0.87)], slight for osteophytes [0.14 (0.04, 0.25)], and almost perfect for sum score of osteophytes, CBEs, joint space narrowing (JSN), and bone marrow lesions (BMLs) (0.81-0.89). Intra-rater reliability was almost perfect for sum score of MRI synovitis [0.92 (0.87, 0.96)], BMLs [0.88 (0.78, 0.98)], osteophytes [0.86 (0.74, 0.98)], CBEs [0.83 (0.66, 1.00)] and JSN [0.91 (0.87, 0.91)]. CONCLUSION: US and MRI are reliable in detecting hand OA features. US may be preferred due to low cost and increasing availability.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for leflunomide discontinuation with abnormal blood tests during long-term treatment: cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold and Aurum.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a prognostic model for LEF discontinuation with abnormal blood test results. METHODS: Data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold and Aurum were used for model development and external validation, respectively. Participants prescribed LEF between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2019 were followed up from 6 months after the first general practitioner prescription to the earliest of date of outcome, death, 5 year follow-up or 31 December 2019. Candidate prognostic factors were ascertained using theory and data-driven approaches. Penalized Cox regression was performed to develop the risk equation, followed by internal validation using 500 bootstraps to correct for optimism. Multiple imputation was applied to handle missing data. Model performance was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination. RESULTS: Data for 1487 and 2329 participants contributing 3140 and 5246 person-years follow-up were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Thirteen candidate predictors were included in the model. Epilepsy and either cytopenia or elevated liver enzymes during the first 6 months of shared-care LEF prescription were strong predictors of drug discontinuation with a hazard ratio of 4.39 (95% CI 1.74, 11.06) and 3.06 (2.15, 4.35), respectively. The unadjusted and optimism-adjusted calibration slope in development data was 1.00 (95% CI 0.75, 1.25) and 0.72 (95% CI 0.47, 0.97), respectively. The calibration slope in validation data was 0.91 (95% CI 0.74, 1.07). The model showed prognostic separation with an optimism-adjusted Royston D statistic of 0.73 (95% CI 0.44, 1.02). CONCLUSION: We have developed and externally validated an easy-to-use prognostic model that may be used to risk stratify monitoring for LEF toxicity and to make informed choices about risks when choosing treatments.

Predictors of critical care, mechanical ventilation, and mortality among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in an electronic health record database.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on risk factors for serious outcomes and death from COVID-19 among patients representative of the U.S. POPULATION: The objective of this study was to determine risk factors for critical care, ventilation, and death among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This was a cohort study using data from Optum's longitudinal COVID-19 electronic health record database derived from a network of healthcare provider organizations across the US. The study included patients with confirmed COVID-19 (presence of ICD-10-CM code U07.1 and/or positive SARS-CoV-2 test) between January 2020 and November 2020. Patient characteristics and clinical variables at start of hospitalization were evaluated for their association with subsequent serious outcomes (critical care, mechanical ventilation, and death) using odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from logistic regression, adjusted for demographic variables. RESULTS: Among 56,996 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (49.5% male and 72.4% ≥ 50 years), 11,967 received critical care, 9136 received mechanical ventilation, and 8526 died. The median duration of hospitalization was 6 days (IQR: 4, 11), and this was longer among patients that experienced an outcome: 11 days (IQR: 6, 19) for critical care, 15 days (IQR: 8, 24) for mechanical ventilation, and 10 days (IQR: 5, 17) for death. Dyspnea and hypoxemia were the most prevalent symptoms and both were associated with serious outcomes in adjusted models. Additionally, temperature, C-reactive protein, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, D-dimer, and oxygen saturation measured during hospitalization were predictors of serious outcomes as were several in-hospital diagnoses. The strongest associations were observed for acute respiratory failure (critical care: OR, 6.30; 95% CI, 5.99-6.63; ventilation: OR, 8.55; 95% CI, 8.02-9.11; death: OR, 3.36; 95% CI, 3.17-3.55) and sepsis (critical care: OR, 4.59; 95% CI, 4.39-4.81; ventilation: OR, 5.26; 95% CI, 5.00-5.53; death: OR, 4.14; 95% CI, 3.92-4.38). Treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers during hospitalization were inversely associated with death (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.54-0.61). CONCLUSIONS: We identified several clinical characteristics associated with receipt of critical care, mechanical ventilation, and death among COVID-19 patients. Future studies into the mechanisms that lead to severe COVID-19 disease are warranted.

Concurrent brain-responsive and vagus nerve stimulation for treatment of drug-resistant focal epilepsy.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical trials of a brain-responsive neurostimulator, RNS® System (RNS), excluded patients with a vagus nerve stimulator, VNS® System (VNS). The goal of this study was to evaluate seizure outcomes and safety of concurrent RNS and VNS stimulation in adults with drug-resistant focal-onset seizures. METHODS: A retrospective multicenter chart review was performed on all patients with an active VNS and RNS who were treated for a minimum of 6 months with both systems concurrently. Frequency of disabling seizures at baseline before RNS, at 1 year after RNS placement, and at last follow-up were used to calculate the change in seizure frequency after treatment. Data on adverse events and complications related to each device were collected. RESULTS: Sixty-four patients from 10 epilepsy centers met inclusion criteria. All but one patient received RNS after VNS. The median follow-up time after RNS implantation was 28 months. Analysis of the entire population of patients with active VNS and RNS systems revealed a median reduction in seizure frequency at 1 year post-RNS placement of 43% with a responder rate of 49%, and at last follow-up a 64% median reduction with a 67% responder rate. No negative interactions were reported from the concurrent use of VNS and RNS. Stimulation-related side-effects were reported more frequently in association with VNS (30%) than with RNS (2%). SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggest that concurrent treatment with VNS and RNS is safe and that the addition of RNS to VNS can further reduce seizure frequency.

Identification of pregnancies and infants within a US commercial healthcare administrative claims database.

PURPOSE: Health care insurance claims databases are becoming a more common data source for studies of medication safety during pregnancy. While pregnancies have historically been identified in such databases by pregnancy outcomes, International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) Z3A codes denoting weeks of gestation provide more granular information on pregnancies and pregnancy periods (i.e., start and end dates). The purpose of this study was to develop a process that uses Z3A codes to identify pregnancies, pregnancy periods, and links infants within a commercial health insurance claims database. METHODS: We identified pregnancies, gestation periods, pregnancy outcomes, and linked infants within the US-based Optum Research Database between 2015 and 2020 via a series of algorithms utilizing diagnosis and procedure codes on claims. The diagnosis and procedure codes included ICD-10-CM codes, Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes, and Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System (HCPCS) codes. RESULTS: We identified 1 030 874 pregnancies among 841 196 women of reproductive age. Of pregnancies with livebirth outcomes, 84% were successfully linked to infants. The prevalence of pregnancy outcomes (livebirth, stillbirth, ectopic, molar, and abortion) was similar to national estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This process provides an opportunity to study drug safety and care patterns during pregnancy and may be replicated in other claims databases containing ICD-10-CM, CPT, and HCPCS codes. Work is underway to validate and refine the various algorithms.

Intra-articular therapies: patient preferences and professional practices in European countries.

To assess patient perspective and professional practice of intraarticular therapies (IATs) across Europe, an expert international multidisciplinary panel designed two open web-based surveys: one targeting people who had experienced at least two IATs (44 items); and one targeting health care providers (HCPs) (160 items). Surveys were disseminated via patient and professional associations and social media. A descriptive analysis was performed. The surveys were answered by 200 patients and 186 HCPs from 26 countries, showing that IAT is routinely performed by rheumatologists (97%) and orthopaedic surgeons (89%), with specific training being compulsory in a few countries. The most frequent indications for IAT are arthritis (76%), osteoarthritis (74%), crystal arthritis (71%) and bursitis (70%); the most frequently injected joints are knee (78%) and shoulder (70%); and the most used compounds are glucocorticoids. The majority of HCPs report informing patients about side-effects (73%), benefits (72%), and the nature of the procedure (72%), which coincides with 27% of patients reporting that they had not been informed about benefits or potential complications of IATs; 73% of patients had not been asked whether they wanted an anaesthetic. Few HCPs (10%) obtain written consent (56% get oral consent, being mandatory for 32%), a procedure deemed necessary by 41% of the patients. 50% of patients reported a clear benefit of IAT and 20% experienced complications including pain, impaired mobility, rashes, or swelling. In summary, the practice of IAT is variable across Europe, and although patients perceive it as relatively safe and usually effective procedure, some gaps were identified.

Identifying multiple knee pain trajectories and the prediction of opioid and NSAID medication used: A latent class growth approach.

BACKGROUND: Knee pain is a major source of distress and disability, with pain progression highly variable between individuals. Previous studies defining pain trajectories have all used a single measure of pain, and these differ across studies. Different measures reflect diverse pain mechanisms. To ascertain the clinical utility of pain trajectories, we explored associations between opioid and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use. METHODS: We model pain trajectories using two measures-Intermittent and Constant Osteoarthritis Pain (ICOAP) and the painDETECT, in 2141 participants, across 3 waves (the baseline, 1- and 3-year assessments) of the Knee Pain In the Community (KPIC) cohort. RESULTS: Latent class growth analysis identified six trajectories using ICOAP subscales (High-Stable, Low-Stable, Moderate Worsening, Moderate Recovering, Worsening, and Recovering) and four trajectories using painDETECT (High-stable, Low-stable, Moderate Worsening, and Moderate Recovering). There was a high degree of correspondence between people assigned to pain trajectories between ICOAP intermittent and constant subscales, but less so using painDETECT. Opioid use was associated with ICOAP trajectories only (e.g., High-Stable and Worsening intermittent ICOAP trajectories) and in women. CONCLUSION: Different measures of pain produce different patterns of pain progression and these are differentially related to medication use. Opioid use is linked to trajectories of pain based on the impact of pain on behavior and not pain symptoms. Thus, managing pain's behavioral impact is more central to understanding opioid use than managing pain symptoms. These findings support more in-depth questioning about the type of pain and its progression in clinical practice.