Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes in Brazil: Different Predictors for Each Type of Unsuccessful Outcome.

BACKGROUND: Successful tuberculosis (TB) treatment is necessary for disease control. The World Health Organization (WHO) has a target TB treatment success rate of ≥90%. We assessed whether the different types of unfavorable TB treatment outcome had different predictors. METHODS: Using data from Regional Prospective Observational Research for Tuberculosis-Brazil, we evaluated biological and behavioral factors associated with each component of unsuccessful TB outcomes, recently updated by WHO (death, loss to follow-up [LTFU], and treatment failure). We included culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible, pulmonary TB participants receiving standard treatment in 2015-2019. Multinomial logistic regression models with inverse probability weighting were used to evaluate the distinct determinants of each unsuccessful outcome. RESULTS: Of 915 participants included, 727 (79%) were successfully treated, 118 (13%) were LTFU, 44 (5%) had treatment failure, and 26 (3%) died. LTFU was associated with current drug-use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 5.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-9.4), current tobacco use (aOR = 2.9; 95% CI, 1.7-4.9), and being a person with HIV (PWH) (aOR = 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5). Treatment failure was associated with PWH (aOR = 2.7; 95% CI, 1.2-6.2) and having diabetes (aOR = 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.4). Death was associated with anemia (aOR = 5.3; 95% CI, 1.4-19.7), diabetes (aOR = 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4-6.7), and PWH (aOR = 3.9; 95% CI, 1.3-11.4). Direct observed therapy was protective for treatment failure (aOR = 0.5; 95% CI, .3-.9) and death (aOR = 0.5; 95% CI, .2-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: The treatment success rate was below the WHO target. Behavioral factors were most associated with LTFU, whereas clinical comorbidities were correlated with treatment failure and death. Because determinants of unsuccessful outcomes are distinct, different intervention strategies may be needed to improve TB outcomes.

The Effect of Diabetes and Prediabetes on Antituberculosis Treatment Outcomes: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether diabetes or prediabetes affects unfavorable treatment outcomes and death in people with tuberculosis (PWTB). METHODS: Culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible PWTB, enrolled in the Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil cohort between 2015 and 2019 (N = 643) were stratified based on glycemic status according to baseline glycated hemoglobin. Unfavorable tuberculosis (TB) outcome was defined as treatment failure or modification, recurrence, or death; favorable outcome was cure or treatment completion. We corroborated the findings using data from PWTB reported to the Brazilian National System of Diseases Notification (SINAN) during 2015-2019 (N = 20 989). Logistic regression models evaluated associations between glycemic status and outcomes. RESULTS: In both cohorts, in univariate analysis, unfavorable outcomes were more frequently associated with smoking, illicit drug use, and human immunodeficiency virus infection. Diabetes, but not prediabetes, was associated with unfavorable outcomes in the RePORT-Brazil (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 2.45; P < .001) and SINAN (aRR, 1.76; P < .001) cohorts. Furthermore, diabetes was associated with high risk of death (during TB treatment) in both RePORT-Brazil (aRR, 2.16; P = .040) and SINAN (aRR, 1.93; P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes was associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcomes and mortality in Brazilian PWTB. Interventions to improve TB treatment outcomes in persons with diabetes are needed.

A Clinical Prediction Model for Unsuccessful Pulmonary Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread availability of curative therapy, tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes remain suboptimal. Clinical prediction models can inform treatment strategies to improve outcomes. Using baseline clinical data, we developed a prediction model for unsuccessful TB treatment outcome and evaluated the incremental value of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related severity and isoniazid acetylator status. METHODS: Data originated from the Regional Prospective Observational Research for Tuberculosis Brazil cohort, which enrolled newly diagnosed TB patients in Brazil from 2015 through 2019. This analysis included participants with culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible pulmonary TB who started first-line anti-TB therapy and had ≥12 months of follow-up. The end point was unsuccessful TB treatment: composite of death, treatment failure, regimen switch, incomplete treatment, or not evaluated. Missing predictors were imputed. Predictors were chosen via bootstrapped backward selection. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated with c-statistics and calibration plots, respectively. Bootstrap internal validation estimated overfitting, and a shrinkage factor was applied to improve out-of-sample prediction. Incremental value was evaluated with likelihood ratio-based measures. RESULTS: Of 944 participants, 191 (20%) had unsuccessful treatment outcomes. The final model included 7 baseline predictors: hemoglobin, HIV infection, drug use, diabetes, age, education, and tobacco use. The model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.77; 95% confidence interval, .73-.80) and was well calibrated (optimism-corrected intercept and slope, -0.12 and 0.89, respectively). HIV-related factors and isoniazid acetylation status did not improve prediction of the final model. CONCLUSIONS: Using information readily available at treatment initiation, the prediction model performed well in this population. The findings may guide future work to allocate resources or inform targeted interventions for high-risk patients.

[COVID-19 emergency operations center: experience of the Rio de Janeiro municipality, BrazilCentro de operaciones de emergencia en respuesta a la COVID-19: la experiencia del municipio de Rio de Janeiro]. / Centro de operações de emergência na COVID-19: a experiência do município do Rio de Janeiro.

The present report describes the implementation of an emergency operations center to coordinate the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Following the public health emergency management framework proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO), this temporary center (COE COVID-19 RIO) started operating in January 2021. The report is organized along five themes: legal framework; structure, planning, and procedures; institutional articulation; health information for decision-making; and risk communication. Major advances obtained with the initiative include improvements in governance for the management of COVID-19, increase in the synergy among sectors and institutions, improved information sharing in relation to COVID-19 prevention and control measures, innovation in epidemiologic analyses, and gains in transparency and decision-making opportunities. In conclusion, even if conceived at an advanced stage of the pandemic in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, the COE COVID-19 RIO has played a relevant role in shaping the city's responses to the pandemic. Also, despite its temporary character, the experience will leave a lasting legacy for the management of future public health emergencies in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro.

En el presente artículo se describe la experiencia al establecerse un centro de operaciones de emergencia (COE) para coordinar la respuesta a la pandemia de COVID-19 en el municipio de Rio de Janeiro (Brasil). Siguiendo el modelo de gestión de emergencias de salud pública promovido por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), este centro temporal se activó en enero del 2021. El informe se estructuró con base en cinco ejes temáticos: marco legal; estructura, planes y procedimientos; articulaciones institucionales; información en materia de salud para sustentar las decisiones; y comunicación sobre riesgos. Entre los principales avances relacionados con esta iniciativa cabe destacar los adelantos en cuanto a la gobernanza para organizar la forma de enfrentar la COVID-19, el aumento de la sinergia entre los sectores y las instituciones correspondientes, un mayor intercambio de información sobre las medidas de prevención y control de la enfermedad, innovación en los análisis epidemiológicos, mayor transparencia en la toma de decisiones y decisiones tomadas de manera más oportuna. Se llegó a la conclusión de que este COE, a pesar de que había sido establecido en una fase avanzada de la pandemia en la ciudad, tuvo un papel importante en la estructuración de la respuesta. Sin embargo, a pesar de su carácter temporal, la experiencia demostró ser un importante legado para enfrentar futuras emergencias de salud pública en el municipio de Rio de Janeiro.

The Effect of Diabetes and Prediabetes on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission to Close Contacts.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether dysglycemia is associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission. METHODS: We assessed epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis and their close contacts, enrolled in a multicenter prospective cohort in Brazil. Contacts were investigated at baseline and 6 months after enrollment. QuantiFERON positivity at baseline and conversion (from negative to positive at month 6) were compared between subgroups of contacts according to glycemic status of persons with tuberculosis (PWTB) as diabetes mellitus (DM) or prediabetes. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models were performed to test independent associations with baseline QuantiFERON positive and QuantiFERON conversion. RESULTS: There were 592 PWTB (153 DM, 141 prediabetes, 211 normoglycemic) and 1784 contacts, of whom 658 were QuantiFERON-positive at baseline and 106 converters. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that tuberculosis-prediabetes cases, acid-fast bacilli-positive, pulmonary cavities, and living with someone who smoked were independently associated with QuantiFERON positive in contacts at baseline. DM, persistent cough, acid-fast bacilli-positive, and pulmonary cavities in tuberculosis source cases were associated with QuantiFERON conversion. CONCLUSIONS: Contacts of persons with pulmonary tuberculosis and dysglycemia were at increased risk of being QuantiFERON positive at baseline or month 6. Increased focus on such close contacts could improve tuberculosis control.

Racial and socioeconomic disparities in multimorbidity and associated healthcare utilisation and outcomes in Brazil: a cross-sectional analysis of three million individuals.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is limited on racial/ethnic group disparities in multimorbidity and associated health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries hampering effective policies and clinical interventions to address health inequalities. METHODS: This study assessed race/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and associated healthcare utilisation, costs and death in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A cross-sectional analysis was carried out of 3,027,335 individuals registered with primary healthcare (PHC) services. Records included linked data to hospitalisation, mortality, and welfare-claimant (Bolsa Família) records between 1 Jan 2012 and 31 Dec 2016. Logistic and Poisson regression models were carried out to assess the likelihood of multimorbidity (two or more diagnoses out of 53 chronic conditions), PHC use, hospital admissions and mortality from any cause. Interactions were used to assess disparities. RESULTS: In total 13,509,633 healthcare visits were analysed identifying 389,829 multimorbid individuals (13%). In adjusted regression models, multimorbidity was associated with lower education (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.26; 95%CI: 1.23,1.29; compared to higher education), Bolsa Família receipt (AOR: 1.14; 95%CI: 1.13,1.15; compared to non-recipients); and black race/ethnicity (AOR: 1.05; 95%CI: 1.03,1.06; compared to white). Multimorbidity was associated with more hospitalisations (Adjusted Rate Ratio (ARR): 2.75; 95%CI: 2.69,2.81), more PHC visits (ARR: 3.46; 95%CI: 3.44,3.47), and higher likelihood of death (AOR: 1.33; 95%CI: 1.29,1.36). These associations were greater for multimorbid individuals with lower educational attainment (five year probability of death 1.67% (95%CI: 1.61,1.74%) compared to 1.13% (95%CI: 1.02,1.23%) for higher education), individuals of black race/ethnicity (1.48% (95%CI: 1.41,1.55%) compared to 1.35% (95%CI: 1.31,1.40%) for white) and individuals in receipt of welfare (1.89% (95%CI: 1.77,2.00%) compared to 1.35% (95%CI: 1.31,1.38%) for non-recipients). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of multimorbidity and associated hospital admissions and mortality are greater in individuals with black race/ethnicity and other deprived socioeconomic groups in Rio de Janeiro. Interventions to better prevent and manage multimorbidity and underlying disparities in low- and middle-income country settings are needed.

Record linkage under suboptimal conditions for data-intensive evaluation of primary care in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Linking Brazilian databases demands the development of algorithms and processes to deal with various challenges including the large size of the databases, the low number and poor quality of personal identifiers available to be compared (national security number not mandatory), and some characteristics of Brazilian names that make the linkage process prone to errors. This study aims to describe and evaluate the quality of the processes used to create an individual-linked database for data-intensive research on the impacts on health indicators of the expansion of primary care in Rio de Janeiro City, Brazil. METHODS: We created an individual-level dataset linking social benefits recipients, primary health care, hospital admission and mortality data. The databases were pre-processed, and we adopted a multiple approach strategy combining deterministic and probabilistic record linkage techniques, and an extensive clerical review of the potential matches. Relying on manual review as the gold standard, we estimated the false match (false-positive) proportion of each approach (deterministic, probabilistic, clerical review) and the missed match proportion (false-negative) of the clerical review approach. To assess the sensitivity (recall) to identifying social benefits recipients' deaths, we used their vital status registered on the primary care database as the gold standard. RESULTS: In all linkage processes, the deterministic approach identified most of the matches. However, the proportion of matches identified in each approach varied. The false match proportion was around 1% or less in almost all approaches. The missed match proportion in the clerical review approach of all linkage processes were under 3%. We estimated a recall of 93.6% (95% CI 92.8-94.3) for the linkage between social benefits recipients and mortality data. CONCLUSION: The adoption of a linkage strategy combining pre-processing routines, deterministic, and probabilistic strategies, as well as an extensive clerical review approach minimized linkage errors in the context of suboptimal data quality.

Lack of Weight Gain During the First 2 Months of Treatment and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Independently Predict Unsuccessful Treatment Outcomes in Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Weight change may inform tuberculosis treatment response, but its predictive power may be confounded by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). METHODS: We prospectively followed up adults with culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible, pulmonary tuberculosis receiving standard 4-drug therapy (isoniazid, rifampin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol) in Brazil. We examined median weight change 2 months after treatment initiation by HIV status, using quantile regression, and unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcome (treatment failure, tuberculosis recurrence, or death) by HIV and weight change status, using Cox regression. RESULTS: Among 547 participants, 102 (19%) were HIV positive, and 35 (6%) had an unsuccessful outcome. After adjustment for confounders, persons living with HIV (PLWH) gained a median of 1.3 kg (95% confidence interval [CI], -2.8 to .1) less than HIV-negative individuals during the first 2 months of tuberculosis treatment. PLWH were at increased risk of an unsuccessful outcome (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.8; 95% CI, 2.1-10.9). Weight change was independently associated with outcome, with risk of unsuccessful outcome decreasing by 12% (95% CI, .81%-.95%) per 1-kg increase. CONCLUSIONS: PLWH gained less weight during the first 2 months of tuberculosis treatment, and lack of weight gain and HIV independently predicted unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcomes. Weight, an easily collected biomarker, may identify patients who would benefit from alternative treatment strategies.

Primary healthcare expansion and mortality in Brazil's urban poor: A cohort analysis of 1.2 million adults.

BACKGROUND: Expanding delivery of primary healthcare to urban poor populations is a priority in many low- and middle-income countries. This remains a key challenge in Brazil despite expansion of the country's internationally recognized Family Health Strategy (FHS) over the past two decades. This study evaluates the impact of an ambitious program to rapidly expand FHS coverage in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, since 2008. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A cohort of 1,241,351 low-income adults (observed January 2010-December 2016; total person-years 6,498,607) with linked FHS utilization and mortality records was analyzed using flexible parametric survival models. Time-to-death from all-causes and selected causes were estimated for FHS users and nonusers. Models employed inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA). The cohort was 61% female (751,895) and had a mean age of 36 years (standard deviation 16.4). Only 18,721 individuals (1.5%) had higher education, whereas 102,899 (8%) had no formal education. Two thirds of individuals (827,250; 67%) were in receipt of conditional cash transfers (Bolsa Família). A total of 34,091 deaths were analyzed, of which 8,765 (26%) were due to cardiovascular disease; 5,777 (17%) were due to neoplasms; 5,683 (17%) were due to external causes; 3,152 (9%) were due to respiratory diseases; and 3,115 (9%) were due to infectious and parasitic diseases. One third of the cohort (467,155; 37.6%) used FHS services. In IPTW-RA survival analysis, an average FHS user had a 44% lower hazard of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.56, 95% CI 0.54-0.59, p < 0.001) and a 5-year risk reduction of 8.3 per 1,000 (95% CI 7.8-8.9, p < 0.001) compared with a non-FHS user. There were greater reductions in the risk of death for FHS users who were black (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.46-0.54, p < 0.001) or pardo (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60, p < 0.001) compared with white (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.56-0.63, p < 0.001); had lower educational attainment (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.46-0.55, p < 0.001) for those with no education compared to no significant association for those with higher education (p = 0.758); or were in receipt of conditional cash transfers (Bolsa Família) (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.49-0.54, p < 0.001) compared with nonrecipients (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.60-0.67, p < 0.001). Key limitations in this study are potential unobserved confounding through selection into the program and linkage errors, although analytical approaches have minimized the potential for bias. CONCLUSIONS: FHS utilization in urban poor populations in Brazil was associated with a lower risk of death, with greater reductions among more deprived race/ethnic and socioeconomic groups. Increased investment in primary healthcare is likely to improve health and reduce health inequalities in urban poor populations globally.

The impact of the Brazilian Family Health Strategy and the conditional cash transfer on tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Rio de Janeiro: an individual-level analysis of secondary data.

Background: Unsuccessful tuberculosis outcomes are frequent; bold policies are needed to end the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic to attain the third Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) by 2030. We examined the effect of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) and its interactions with the conditional cash transfer programme (CTP) on TB outcomes in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Methods: We performed individual-based analyses of a database resulting from deterministic and probabilistic linkages of the TB information system, FHS registries and CTP payrolls. Patients ≥15 years old treated with the standard RHZE regimen were included. The rates of successful outcomes were analysed according to coverage by FHS. Effects from the CTP and its interactions with the FHS were examined among the poorest. Results: FHS coverage increased the likelihood for successful outcomes by 14% (12-17%) among 13 482 new cases, and by 35% (25-47%) among 1880 retreatment cases. The CTP had an independent effect but no interaction with the FHS among the poorest. Conclusions: This is the first individual-based study to show a relevant protection of poor urban communities regarding patient-important health outcomes by the Brazilian FHS and CTP. These findings support strategies of universal health coverage, primary care strengthening and social protection to achieve a major SDG.

Long-term protection from isoniazid preventive therapy for tuberculosis in HIV-infected patients in a medium-burden tuberculosis setting: the TB/HIV in Rio (THRio) study.

BACKGROUND: The duration of protection against tuberculosis provided by isoniazid preventive therapy is not known for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals living in settings of medium tuberculosis incidence. METHODS: We conducted an individual-level analysis of participants in a cluster-randomized, phased-implementation trial of isoniazid preventive therapy. HIV-infected patients who had positive tuberculin skin tests (TSTs) were followed until tuberculosis diagnosis, death, or administrative censoring. Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard plots were generated and hazards were compared using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to investigate factors associated with tuberculosis diagnosis. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2009, 1954 patients with a positive TST were studied. Among these, 1601 (82%) initiated isoniazid. Overall tuberculosis incidence was 1.39 per 100 person-years (PY); 0.53 per 100 PY in those who initiated isoniazid and 6.52 per 100 PY for those who did not (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], .11-.25). Receiving antiretroviral therapy at time of a positive TST was associated with a reduced risk of tuberculosis (aHR, 0.69; 95% CI, .48-1.00). Nelson-Aalen plots of tuberculosis incidence showed a constant risk, with no acceleration in 7 years of follow-up for those initiating isoniazid preventive therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Isoniazid preventive therapy significantly reduced tuberculosis risk among HIV-infected patients with a positive TST. In a medium-prevalence setting, 6 months of isoniazid in HIV-infected patients with positive TST reduces tuberculosis risk over 7 years of follow-up, in contrast to results of studies in higher-burden settings in Africa.

Impact of replacing smear microscopy with Xpert MTB/RIF for diagnosing tuberculosis in Brazil: a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Abundant evidence on Xpert MTB/RIF accuracy for diagnosing tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin resistance has been produced, yet there are few data on the population benefit of its programmatic use. We assessed whether the implementation of Xpert MTB/RIF in routine conditions would (1) increase the notification rate of laboratory-confirmed pulmonary TB to the national notification system and (2) reduce the time to TB treatment initiation (primary endpoints). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial from 4 February to 4 October 2012 in 14 primary care laboratories in two Brazilian cities. Diagnostic specimens were included for 11,705 baseline (smear microscopy) and 12,522 intervention (Xpert MTB/RIF) patients presumed to have TB. Single-sputum-sample Xpert MTB/RIF replaced two-sputum-sample smear microscopy for routine diagnosis of pulmonary TB. In total, 1,137 (9.7%) tests in the baseline arm and 1,777 (14.2%) in the intervention arm were positive (p<0.001), resulting in an increased bacteriologically confirmed notification rate of 59% (95% CI = 31%, 88%). However, the overall notification rate did not increase (15%, 95% CI =  -6%, 37%), and we observed no change in the notification rate for those without a test result (-3%, 95% CI = -37%, 30%). Median time to treatment decreased from 11.4 d (interquartile range [IQR] = 8.5-14.5) to 8.1 d (IQR = 5.4-9.3) (p = 0.04), although not among confirmed cases (median 7.5 [IQR = 4.9-10.0] versus 7.3 [IQR = 3.4-9.0], p = 0.51). Prevalence of rifampicin resistance detected by Xpert was 3.3% (95% CI = 2.4%, 4.3%) among new patients and 7.4% (95% CI = 4.3%, 11.7%) among retreatment patients, with a 98% (95% CI = 87%, 99%) positive predictive value compared to phenotypic drug susceptibility testing. Missing data in the information systems may have biased our primary endpoints. However, sensitivity analyses assessing the effects of missing data did not affect our results. CONCLUSIONS: Replacing smear microscopy with Xpert MTB/RIF in Brazil increased confirmation of pulmonary TB. An additional benefit was the accurate detection of rifampicin resistance. However, no increase on overall notification rates was observed, possibly because of high rates of empirical TB treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01363765. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Operational lessons drawn from pilot implementation of Xpert MTB/Rif in Brazil.

PROBLEM: The World Health Organization has endorsed the Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), an automated polymerase-chain-reaction-based assay, for the rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis. However, large-scale use of a new technology calls for preparation and adaptation. APPROACH: A pilot implementation study was conducted in two Brazilian cities to explore the replacement of sputum smear microscopy with Xpert. The laboratories included covered 70% of the tuberculosis cases diagnosed, had no overlap in population catchment areas, handled different workloads and were randomly shifted to Xpert. Sputum samples were collected through the same routine procedures. Before the study the medical information system was prepared for the recording of Xpert results. Laboratory technicians were trained to operate Xpert machines and health workers were taught how to interpret the results. LOCAL SETTING: The average annual tuberculosis incidence in Brazil is around 90 cases per 100,000 population. However, co-infection with the human immunodeficiency virus and multidrug resistance are relatively infrequent (10% and < 2%, respectively). RELEVANT CHANGES: Of the tested sputum samples, 7.3% were too scanty for Xpert and had to be examined microscopically. Ten per cent of Xpert equipment needed replacement, but spare parts were not readily available in the country. Absence of patient identification numbers led to the introduction of errors in the medical information system. LESSONS LEARNT: For nationwide scale-up, a local service provider is needed to maintain the Xpert system. Ensuring cartridge availability is also essential. The capacity to perform smear microscopy should be retained. The medical information system needs updating to allow efficient use of Xpert.

Racial inequalities in mental healthcare use and mortality: a cross-sectional analysis of 1.2 million low-income individuals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 2010-2016.

INTRODUCTION: Mental health inequalities across racial and ethnic groups are large and unjust in many countries, yet these inequalities remain under-researched, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries such as Brazil. This study investigates racial and socioeconomic inequalities in primary healthcare usage, hospitalisation and mortality for mental health disorders in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: A cohort of 1.2 million low-income adults from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil with linked socioeconomic, demographic, healthcare use and mortality records was cross-sectionally analysed. Poisson regression models were used to investigate associations between self-defined race/colour and primary healthcare (PHC) usage, hospitalisation and mortality due to mental disorders, adjusting for socioeconomic factors. Interactions between race/colour and socioeconomic characteristics (sex, education level, income) explored if black and pardo (mixed race) individuals faced compounded risk of adverse mental health outcomes. RESULTS: There were 272 532 PHC consultations, 10 970 hospitalisations and 259 deaths due to mental disorders between 2010 and 2016. After adjusting for a wide range of socioeconomic factors, the lowest PHC usage rates were observed in black (adjusted rate ratio (ARR): 0.64; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.68; compared with white) and pardo individuals (ARR: 0.87; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92). Black individuals were more likely to die from mental disorders (ARR: 1.68; 95% CI 1.19 to 2.37; compared with white), as were those with lower educational attainment and household income. In interaction models, being black or pardo conferred additional disadvantage across mental health outcomes. The highest educated black (ARR: 0.56; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.66) and pardo (ARR: 0.75; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.87) individuals had lower rates of PHC usage for mental disorders compared with the least educated white individuals. Black individuals were 3.7 times (ARR: 3.67; 95% CI 1.29 to 10.42) more likely to die from mental disorders compared with white individuals with the same education level. CONCLUSION: In low-income individuals in Rio de Janeiro, racial/colour inequalities in mental health outcomes were large and not fully explainable by socioeconomic status. Black and pardo Brazilians were consistently negatively affected, with lower PHC usage and worse mental health outcomes.

Associations between primary healthcare and infant health outcomes: a cohort analysis of low-income mothers in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Background: Expanding primary healthcare to urban poor populations is a priority in many low-and middle-income countries and is essential to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). Between 2008 and 2016 the city of Rio de Janeiro undertook an ambitious programme to rapidly expand primary care to low-income areas through the family health strategy (FHS). Infant health impacts of this roll out are unknown. This study examines associations between maternal FHS utilisation and birth outcomes, neonatal and infant mortality. Methods: A cohort of 75,339 live births (January 2009-December 2014) to low-income mothers in Rio de Janeiro was linked to primary care, birth, hospital and death records. The relationship between maternal FHS use and infant health outcomes was assessed through logistic regression with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment. Socioeconomic inequalities in the associations between FHS use and outcomes were explored through interactions. Primary outcomes were neonatal and infant death. Thirteen secondary outcomes were also examined to explore other important health outcomes and potential mechanisms. Results: A total of 9002 (12.0%) infants were born to mothers in the cohort who used FHS services either before pregnancy or in the first two trimesters. There was a total of 527 neonatal and 893 infant deaths. Maternal FHS usage during the first two trimesters was associated with substantial reductions in neonatal [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.527, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.345; 0.806] and infant mortality (aOR: 0.672, 95% CI: 0.48; 0.924). Infants born to lower-income mothers and those without formal employment had larger reductions in neonatal and infant mortality associated with FHS use. Maternal FHS in the first two trimesters use was also associated with more antenatal care consultations and a lower risk of low birth weight and preterm birth. Interpretation: Expanding primary care to low-income populations in Rio de Janeiro was associated with improved infant health and health equity benefits. Funding: DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC.

Excess mortality from all causes during the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate excess mortality in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, due to the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020 to January 2022). METHODS: Ecological study using secondary data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System, having the city of Rio de Janeiro as the unit of analysis. Excess mortality was estimated by the difference between the mean number of all expected deaths and the mean number of observed deaths, considering the 2015-2019 period. The quantile regression method was adjusted. The total value of cases above that expected by the historical series was estimated. Among all deaths, cases of COVID-19 and Influenza as underlying causes of death were selected. The ratio between excess mortality and deaths due to COVID-19 was calculated. RESULTS: We identified an excess of 31,920 deaths by the mean (increase of 26.8%). The regression pointed to 31,363 excess deaths. We found 33,401 deaths from COVID-19 and 176 deaths from Influenza. The ratio between the verified excess mortality and deaths due to COVID-19 was 0.96 by the mean and 0.95 by the regression. CONCLUSION: The study pointed to large excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Rio de Janeiro distributed in waves, including the period of the Influenza outbreak.

Contextualizing and optimizing novel strategies to improve the latent TB continuum of care: Insights from people living with HIV and health care providers in Brazil.

Tuberculosis (TB) causes 1 in 3 deaths among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Diagnosing and treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is critical to reducing TB incidence and mortality. Blood-based screening tests (e.g., QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT+)) and shorter-course TB preventive therapy (TPT) regimens such as 3HP (3 months weekly isoniazid-rifapentine) hold significant promise to improve TB outcomes. We qualitatively explored barriers and solutions to optimizing QFT+ and 3HP among PLHIV in three cities in Brazil. We conducted 110 in-depth interviews with PLHIV, health care providers (HCP) and key informants (KI). Content analysis was conducted including the use of case summaries and comparison of themes across populations and contexts. LTBI screening and treatment practices were dependent on HCP's perceptions of whether they were critical to improving TB outcomes. Many HCP lacked a strong understanding of LTBI and perceived the current TPT regimen as complicated. HCP reported that LTBI screening and treatment were constrained by clinic staffing challenges. While PLHIV generally expressed willingness to consider any test or treatment that doctors recommended, they indicated HCP rarely discussed LTBI and TPT. TB testing and treatment requests were constrained by structural factors including financial and food insecurity, difficulties leaving work for appointments, stigma and family responsibilities. QFT+ and 3HP were viewed by all participants as tools that could significantly improve the LTBI cascade by avoiding complexities of TB skin tests and longer LTBI treatment courses. QFT+ and 3HP were perceived to have challenges, including the potential to increase workload on over-burdened health systems if not implemented alongside improved supply chains, staffing, and training, and follow-up initiatives. Multi-level interventions that increase understanding of the importance of LTBI and TPT among HCP, improve patient-provider communication, and streamline clinic-level operations related to QFT+ and 3HP are needed to optimize their impact among PLHIV and reduce TB mortality.

Contribution of primary care expansion to Sustainable Development Goal 3 for health: a microsimulation of the 15 largest cities in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: As middle-income countries strive to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it remains unclear to what degree expanding primary care coverage can help achieve those goals and reduce within-country inequalities in mortality. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of primary care expansion on cause-specific mortality in the 15 largest Brazilian cities. DESIGN: Microsimulation model. SETTING: 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Simulated populations. INTERVENTIONS: We performed survival analysis to estimate HRs of death by cause and by demographic group, from a national administrative database linked to the Estratégia de Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy, FHS) electronic health and death records among 1.2 million residents of Rio de Janeiro (2010-2016). We incorporated the HRs into a microsimulation to estimate the impact of changing primary care coverage in the 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and age-standardised mortality by cause, infant mortality and under-5 mortality. RESULTS: Increased FHS coverage would be expected to reduce inequalities in mortality among cities (from 2.8 to 2.4 deaths per 1000 between the highest-mortality and lowest-mortality city, given a 40 percentage point increase in coverage), between welfare recipients and non-recipients (from 1.3 to 1.0 deaths per 1,000), and among race/ethnic groups (between Black and White Brazilians from 1.0 to 0.8 deaths per 1,000). Even a 40 percentage point increase in coverage, however, would be insufficient to reach SDG targets alone, as it would be expected to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 20% (vs the target of 33%), and communicable diseases by 15% (vs 100%). CONCLUSIONS: FHS primary care coverage may be critically beneficial to reducing within-country health inequalities, but reaching SDG targets will likely require coordination between primary care and other sectors.

Expansion of primary healthcare and emergency hospital admissions among the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil: A cohort analysis.

Background: Robust evidence on the relationship between primary care and emergency admissions is lacking in low- and middle-income countries. This study evaluates how the phased roll out of the family health strategy (FHS) to the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil affected emergency hospital admissions and readmissions from ambulatory-care sensitives conditions (ACSCs). Methods: A cohort of 1.2 million adults in Rio de Janeiro city were followed for five years (Jan 2012 to Dec 2016). The association between FHS use and the likelihood of emergency hospital admissions and 30-day readmissions were evaluated using multi-level Poisson regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA) for socioeconomic and household characteristics. Inequalities in associations were examined across groups of causes and by key socioeconomic groups. Results: Records from 2,551,934 primary care consultations and 15,627 admissions were analysed. In IPTW-RA analyses, each additional FHS consultation was associated with a 3% lower rate of ACSC admission (RR: 0.97; 95%CI: 0.95, 0.98), a 63% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from any non-birth cause (RR: 0.37; 95%CI: 0.30, 0.46), and an 57% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from ACSCs (RR: 0.43; 95%CI: 0.33, 0.55). Individuals who were older, had the lowest educational attainment, were unemployed, and had higher incomes had larger reductions in ACSC admissions associated with FHS use. Interpretation: Investment in primary care is important for reducing emergency hospital admissions and their associated costs in LMICs. Funding: DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC.

Estimating the effect of the wMel release programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Introgression of genetic material from species of the insect bacteria Wolbachia into populations of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes has been shown in randomised and non-randomised trials to reduce the incidence of dengue; however, evidence for the real-world effectiveness of large-scale deployments of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes for arboviral disease control in endemic settings is still scarce. A large Wolbachia (wMel strain) release programme was implemented in 2017 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We aimed to assess the effect of this programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in the city. METHODS: 67 million wMel-infected mosquitoes were released across 28 489 locations over an area of 86·8 km2 in Rio de Janeiro between Aug 29, 2017 and Dec 27, 2019. Following releases, mosquitoes were trapped and the presence of wMel was recorded. In this spatiotemporal modelling study, we assessed the effect of the release programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya. We used spatiotemporally explicit mathematical models applied to geocoded dengue cases (N=283 270) from 2010 to 2019 and chikungunya cases (N=57 705) from 2016 to 2019. FINDINGS: On average, 32% of mosquitoes collected from the release zones between 1 month and 29 months after the initial release tested positive for wMel. Reduced wMel introgression occurred in locations and seasonal periods in which cases of dengue and chikungunya were historically high, with a decrease to 25% of mosquitoes testing positive for wMel during months in which disease incidence was at its highest. Despite incomplete introgression, we found that the releases were associated with a 38% (95% CI 32-44) reduction in the incidence of dengue and a 10% (4-16) reduction in the incidence of chikungunya. INTERPRETATION: Stable establishment of wMel in the geographically diverse, urban setting of Rio de Janeiro seems to be more complicated than has been observed elsewhere. However, even intermediate levels of wMel seem to reduce the incidence of disease caused by two arboviruses. These findings will help to guide future release programmes. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the European Research Council.