Global hotspots of traded phylogenetic and functional diversity.

Wildlife trade is a multibillion-dollar industry1 targeting a hyperdiversity of species2 and can contribute to major declines in abundance3. A key question is understanding the global hotspots of wildlife trade for phylogenetic (PD) and functional (FD) diversity, which underpin the conservation of evolutionary history4, ecological functions5 and ecosystem services benefiting humankind6. Using a global dataset of traded bird and mammal species, we identify that the highest levels of traded PD and FD are from tropical regions, where high numbers of evolutionary distinct and globally endangered species in trade occur. The standardized effect size (ses) of traded PD and FD also shows strong tropical epicentres, with additional hotspots of mammalian ses.PD in the eastern United States and ses.FD in Europe. Large-bodied, frugivorous and canopy-dwelling birds and large-bodied mammals are more likely to be traded whereas insectivorous birds and diurnally foraging mammals are less likely. Where trade drives localized extinctions3, our results suggest substantial losses of unique evolutionary lineages and functional traits, with possible cascading effects for communities and ecosystems5,7. Avoiding unsustainable exploitation and lost community integrity requires targeted conservation efforts, especially in hotspots of traded phylogenetic and functional diversity.

Indigenous Peoples' Lands are critical for safeguarding vertebrate diversity across the tropics.

Indigenous Peoples are long-term custodians of their lands, but only recently are their contributions to conservation starting to be recognized in biodiversity policy and practice. Tropical forest loss and degradation are lower in Indigenous lands than unprotected areas, yet the role of Indigenous Peoples' Lands (IPL) in biodiversity conservation has not been properly assessed from regional to global scales. Using species distribution ranges of 11,872 tropical forest-dependent vertebrates to create area of habitat maps, we identified the overlap of these species ranges with IPL and then compared values inside and outside of IPL for species richness, extinction vulnerability, and range-size rarity. Of assessed vertebrates, at least 76.8% had range overlaps with IPL, on average overlapping ~25% of their ranges; at least 120 species were found only within IPL. Species richness within IPL was highest in South America, while IPL in Southeast Asia had highest extinction vulnerability, and IPL in Dominica and New Caledonia were important for range-size rarity. Most countries in the Americas had higher species richness within IPL than outside, whereas most countries in Asia had lower extinction vulnerability scores inside IPL and more countries in Africa and Asia had slightly higher range-size rarity in IPL. Our findings suggest that IPL provide critical support for tropical forest-dependent vertebrates, highlighting the need for greater inclusion of Indigenous Peoples in conservation target-setting and program implementation, and stronger upholding of Indigenous Peoples' rights in conservation policy.

Land-use change from market responses to oil palm intensification in Indonesia.

Oil palm is a major driver of tropical deforestation. A key intervention proposed to reduce the footprint of oil palm is intensifying production to free up spare land for nature, yet the indirect land-use implications of intensification through market forces are poorly understood. We used a spatially explicit land-rent modeling framework to characterize the supply and demand of oil palm in Indonesia under multiple yield improvement and demand elasticity scenarios and explored how shifts in market equilibria alter projections of crop expansion. Oil palm supply was sensitive to crop prices and yield improvements. Across all our scenarios, intensification raised agricultural rents and lowered the effectiveness of reductions in crop expansion. Increased yields lowered oil palm prices, but these price-drops were not sufficient to prevent further cropland expansion from increased agricultural rents under a range of price elasticities of demand. Crucially, we found that agricultural intensification might only result in land being spared when the demand relationship was highly inelastic and crop prices were very low (i.e., a 70% price reduction). Under this scenario, the extent of land spared (∼0.32 million ha) was countered by the continued establishment of new plantations (∼1.04 million ha). Oil palm intensification in Indonesia could exacerbate current pressures on its imperiled biodiversity and should be deployed with stronger spatial planning and enforcement to prevent further cropland expansion.

Cambios en el uso de suelo causados por la reacción del mercado a la intensificación de la palma aceitera en Indonesia Resumen La palma aceitera es una de las principales causas de la deforestación. Una intervención importante propuesta para reducir la huella de esta palma es la intensificación de la producción para que el suelo sobrante sea usado por la naturaleza, pero se sabe muy poco sobre las implicaciones del uso indirecto de suelo de la intensificación a través de las fuerzas del mercado. Usamos un marco de modelos de renta de suelo espacialmente explícito para caracterizar la oferta y demanda de la palma aceitera en Indonesia bajo varios escenarios de mejoras en la producción y elasticidad de demandas y exploramos cómo los cambios en el equilibrio del mercado alteran las proyecciones de la expansión agrícola. La oferta de palma aceitera fue susceptible a los precios de los cultivos y a las mejoras en la producción. La intensificación elevó la renta agrícola y redujo la efectividad de la reducción de la expansión agrícola en todos nuestros escenarios. El aumento en la producción bajó los precios de la palma, pero estas caídas no fueron suficientes para evitar la expansión agrícola a partir de las rentas agrícolas elevadas bajo un rango de elasticidad de precios de demanda. Más importante, descubrimos que la intensificación agrícola puede sólo resultar en que sobre el suelo cuando la relación de demanda casi no sea elástica y los precios de las cosechas sean muy bajos (una reducción del 70% en los precios). Bajo este escenario, la extensión de suelo sobrante (∼0.32 millones de ha) fue contrarrestado por el establecimiento continuo de nuevos sembradíos (∼1.04 millones de ha). La intensificación de la palma aceitera en Indonesia podría agravar las presiones existentes sobre su biodiversidad en peligro y debería implementarse con una mayor planeación espacial y aplicación para prevenir una expansión agrícola superior.

Assessing and improving the veracity of international trade in captive-bred animals.

Captive breeding is often seen as a solution to sustainably increasing the supply of individuals in the wildlife trade. To be an effective conservation measure this requires robust systems to verify the authenticity of captive-bred species. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) monitors the international trade in Listed species-which for many taxa is dominated by captive-bred individuals-using the Review of Captive Trade (RCT) process. A key question is how best to identify laundered or inauthentic captive-bred trade and how has this changed over time and space. We develop targeted assessments based on multiple RCT criteria to identify probable instances of laundering and misuse of source and purpose codes in international trade records, and apply this to 39,167 records of captive trade from 2000 to 2020 spanning 53,674,762 individuals. We find a very low proportion of trade volume (1.8%, 37,835 individuals) misreported as originating from non-existent, registered Appendix I-breeding facilities, and low instances of exporter-reported captive trade being recorded by importers as wild-sourced (<4%) or ranched (1%). We also find that <2% of species-year-exporter records have abrupt shifts from wild to captive sources, potentially indicating laundering. Conversely, we find high incidences of exporter- and importer-reported trade differing in whether the trade was commercial or not - a phenomenon we attribute to differing definitions, not illegal activity. Our results indicate a low incidence of concerning international trade being reported, but we suggest this likely stems from reporting requirements that limit our assessments. We highlight additional trade data that, if embedded into Party's annual reports, would vastly improve inferential potential, greatly increasing the number of records (Appendix II and III species) that could be verified with minimal effort for management authorities.

Island Biogeography Revisited: Museomics Reveals Affinities of Shelf Island Birds Determined by Bathymetry and Paleo-Rivers, Not by Distance to Mainland.

Island biogeography is one of the most powerful subdisciplines of ecology: its mathematical predictions that island size and distance to mainland determine diversity have withstood the test of time. A key question is whether these predictions follow at a population-genomic level. Using rigorous ancient-DNA protocols, we retrieved approximately 1,000 genomic markers from approximately 100 historic specimens of two Southeast Asian songbird complexes from across the Sunda Shelf archipelago collected 1893-1957. We show that the genetic affinities of populations on small shelf islands defy the predictions of geographic distance and appear governed by Earth-historic factors including the position of terrestrial barriers (paleo-rivers) and persistence of corridors (Quaternary land bridges). Our analyses suggest that classic island-biogeographic predictors may not hold well for population-genomic dynamics on the thousands of shelf islands across the globe, which are exposed to dynamic changes in land distribution during Quaternary climate change.

Association of reproductive traits with captive- versus wild-sourced birds in trade.

The wildlife trade is a billion-dollar global business, involving millions of people, thousands of species, and hundreds of millions of individual organisms. Unravelling whether trade targets reproductively distinct species and whether this preference varies between captive- and wild-sourced species is a crucial question. We used a comprehensive list of all bird species traded, trade listings and records kept in compliance with the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), and a suite of avian reproductive parameters to examine whether wildlife trade is associated with particular facets of life history and to examine the association between life-history traits and captive- and wild-sourced traded volumes over time. Across all trade, CITES listing, and CITES trade, large birds were more likely to be traded and listed, but their longevity and age at maturity were not associated with CITES listing or trade. We found species across almost the full range of trait values in both captive and wild trade between 2000 and 2020. Captive trade volumes clearly associated with relatively longer lived and early-maturing species; these associations remained stable and largely unchanged over time. Trait-volume associations in wild-sourced trade were more uncertain. Only body mass had a clear association, and it varied from negative to positive over time. Although reproductive traits were important in captive-sourced trade, species-level variation dominated trade, with even congeneric species varying greatly in volume despite similar traits. The collection and incorporation of trait data into sustainability assessments of captive breeding facilities are crucial to ensure accurate quotas and guard against laundering.

Asociación entre los rasgos reproductivos de aves en cautiverio versus las de origen silvestre comercializadas Resumen El mercado de fauna es un negocio mundial de miles de millones de dólares que involucra a millares de personas, miles de especies y cientos de millones de organismos individuales. Por ello es necesario resolver la cuestión de si el mercado se enfoca en especies con distinciones reproductivas y si esta preferencia varía entre las especies de origen silvestre y en cautiverio. Usamos una lista completa de todas las especies de aves comercializadas, listados y registros comerciales conforme a la Convención sobre el Comercio Internacional de Especies Amenazadas (CITES) y un conjunto de parámetros de reproducción de aves para analizar si el mercado de fauna está asociado con facetas particulares de la historia de vida. También analizamos la asociación entre los rasgos de la historia de vida y el volumen comercializado de origen silvestre y de cautiverio a lo largo del tiempo. En todos los mercados, listas de CITES y mercados CITES, las aves de mayor tamaño tuvieron mayor probabilidad de ser comercializadas y estar enlistadas, pero su longevidad y edad a la madurez no se asoció con el mercado o la lista e CITES. Detectamos especies en casi toda la gama de rasgos tanto en el comercio de cautiverio como el silvestre entre 2000 y 2020. El volumen comercial de cautiverio mostró una asociación clara con las especies relativamente más longevas y de madurez temprana; esta relación fue estable y casi no cambió con el tiempo. La asociación del volumen en las especies de origen silvestre fue más incierta; sólo la masa corporal tuvo una relación clara y ésta varió entre positiva y negativa con el tiempo. Aunque los rasgos reproductivos fueron importantes para el mercado con origen en cautiverio, la variación a nivel de especies dominó el mercado, incluso mostrando una enorme variación del volumen entre las especies congéneres a pesar de tener rasgos similares. La recolección e incorporación de datos sobre los rasgos dentro de los análisis de sustentabilidad de las instalaciones para la cría en cautiverio es crucial para asegurar las cuotas adecuadas y prevenir blanqueo de capitales.

Determining the sustainability of legal wildlife trade.

Exploitation of wildlife represents one of the greatest threats to species survival according to the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Whilst detrimental impacts of illegal trade are well recognised, legal trade is often equated to being sustainable despite the lack of evidence or data in the majority of cases. We review the sustainability of wildlife trade, the adequacy of tools, safeguards, and frameworks to understand and regulate trade, and identify gaps in data that undermine our ability to truly understand the sustainability of trade. We provide 183 examples showing unsustainable trade in a broad range of taxonomic groups. In most cases, neither illegal nor legal trade are supported by rigorous evidence of sustainability, with the lack of data on export levels and population monitoring data precluding true assessments of species or population-level impacts. We propose a more precautionary approach to wildlife trade and monitoring that requires those who profit from trade to provide proof of sustainability. We then identify four core areas that must be strengthened to achieve this goal: (1) rigorous data collection and analyses of populations; (2) linking trade quotas to IUCN and international accords; (3) improved databases and compliance of trade; and (4) enhanced understanding of trade bans, market forces, and species substitutions. Enacting these core areas in regulatory frameworks, including CITES, is essential to the continued survival of many threatened species. There are no winners from unsustainable collection and trade: without sustainable management not only will species or populations become extinct, but communities dependent upon these species will lose livelihoods.

Global biogeographic patterns of avian morphological diversity.

Understanding the biogeographical patterns, and evolutionary and environmental drivers, underpinning morphological diversity are key for determining its origins and conservation. Using a comprehensive set of continuous morphological traits extracted from museum collections of 8353 bird species, including geometric morphometric beak shape data, we find that avian morphological diversity is unevenly distributed globally, even after controlling for species richness, with exceptionally dense packing of species in hyper-diverse tropical hotspots. At the regional level, these areas also have high morphological variance, with species exhibiting high phenotypic diversity. Evolutionary history likely plays a key role in shaping these patterns, with evolutionarily old species contributing to niche expansion, and young species contributing to niche packing. Taken together, these results imply that the tropics are both 'cradles' and 'museums' of phenotypic diversity.

Safeguarding Imperiled Biodiversity and Evolutionary Processes in the Wallacea Center of Endemism.

Wallacea-the meeting point between the Asian and Australian fauna-is one of the world's largest centers of endemism. Twenty-three million years of complex geological history have given rise to a living laboratory for the study of evolution and biodiversity, highly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures. In the present article, we review the historic and contemporary processes shaping Wallacea's biodiversity and explore ways to conserve its unique ecosystems. Although remoteness has spared many Wallacean islands from the severe overexploitation that characterizes many tropical regions, industrial-scale expansion of agriculture, mining, aquaculture and fisheries is damaging terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, denuding endemics from communities, and threatening a long-term legacy of impoverished human populations. An impending biodiversity catastrophe demands collaborative actions to improve community-based management, minimize environmental impacts, monitor threatened species, and reduce wildlife trade. Securing a positive future for Wallacea's imperiled ecosystems requires a fundamental shift away from managing marine and terrestrial realms independently.

Carbon payments can cost-effectively improve logging sustainability in the Amazon.

Selective logging is pervasive across the tropics and unsustainable logging depletes forest biodiversity and carbon stocks. Improving the sustainability of logging will be crucial for meeting climate targets. Carbon-based payment for ecosystem service schemes, including REDD+, give economic value to standing forests and can protect them from degradation, but only if the revenue from carbon payments is greater than the opportunity cost of forgone or reduced logging. We currently lack understanding of whether carbon payments are feasible for protecting Amazonian forests from logging, despite the Amazon holding the largest unexploited timber reserves and an expanding logging sector. Using financial data and inventories of >660,000 trees covering 52,000 ha of Brazilian forest concessions, we estimate the carbon price required to protect forests from logging. We estimate that a carbon price of $7.90 per tCO2 is sufficient to match the opportunity costs of all logging and fund protection of primary forest. Alternatively, improving the sustainability of logging operations by ensuring a greater proportion of trees are left uncut requires only slightly higher investments of $7.97-10.45 per tCO2. These prices fall well below the current compliance market rate and demonstrate a cost-effective opportunity to safeguard large tracts of the Amazon rainforest from further degradation.

Tropical land-use change alters trait-based community assembly rules for dung beetles and birds.

Tropical rainforest disturbance and conversion are critical drivers of biodiversity loss. A key knowledge gap is understanding the impacts of habitat modification on mechanisms of community assembly, which are predicted to respond differently between taxa and across spatial scales. We use a null model approach to detect trait assembly of species at local- and landscape-scales, and then subdivide communities with different habitat associations and foraging guilds to investigate whether the detection of assembly mechanisms varies between groups. We focus on two indicator taxa, dung beetles and birds, across a disturbance gradient of primary rainforest, selectively logged rainforest, and oil palm plantations in Borneo, Southeast Asia. Random community assembly was predominant for dung beetles across habitats, whereas trait convergence, indicative of environmental filtering, occurred across the disturbance gradient for birds. Assembly patterns at the two spatial scales were similar. Subdividing for habitat association and foraging guild revealed patterns hidden when focusing on the overall community. Dung beetle forest specialists and habitat generalists showed opposing assembly mechanisms in primary forest, community assembly of habitat generalists for both taxa differed with disturbance intensity, and insectivorous birds strongly influenced overall community assembly relative to other guilds. Our study reveals the sensitivity of community assembly mechanisms to anthropogenic disturbance via a shift in the relative contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes. This highlights the need for greater understanding of how habitat modification alters species interactions and the importance of incorporating species' traits within assessments.

Coordinated intensification to reconcile the 'zero hunger' and 'life on land' Sustainable Development Goals.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encourage nations to substantially increase food production to achieve zero hunger (SDG 2) while preserving life on land (SDG 15). A key question is how to reconcile these potentially competing goals spatially. We use integer linear programming to develop an 'integrated land use planning framework' that identifies the optimal allocation of 17 crops under different hypothetical conservation targets while meeting agricultural demands by 2030. Intensifying existing cropland to maximum yield before allocating new cropland would reduce land requirement by 43% versus cropland expansion without intensification. Even with yield gap closure, tropical and sub-tropical crops still require expansion, primarily allocated to Venezuela, eastern Brazil, Congo Basin, Myanmar and Indonesia. Enforcement of protected areas, via avoiding conversion in 75% of Key Biodiversity Areas and 65% of intact areas, is vital to attain biodiversity targets but bears large opportunity costs, with agricultural rents dropping from $4.1 to $2.8 trillion. Although nationally constrained forest conservation efforts would earn 9% less agricultural rents compared to globally coordinated conservation solutions, they were also able to reduce intact habitat and forest loss (43% and 35% reduction). Our results demonstrate that careful choice of the allocation of future cropland expansion, could dramatically reduce-but not eliminate-the tradeoffs between the SDGs for food production and land biodiversity conservation.

Replacing low-intensity cattle pasture with oil palm conserves dung beetle functional diversity when paired with forest protection.

Meeting rising demand for oil palm whilst minimizing the loss of tropical biodiversity and associated ecosystem functions is a core conservation challenge. One potential solution is focusing the expansion of high-yielding crops on presently low-yielding farmlands alongside protecting nearby tropical forests that can enhance provision of ecosystem functions. A key question is how this solution would impact invertebrate functional diversity. We focus on oil palm in the Colombian Llanos, where plantations are replacing improved cattle pastures and forest fragments, and on dung beetles, which play key functional roles in nutrient cycling and secondary seed dispersal. We show that functional richness and functional diversity of dung beetles is greater in oil palm than in cattle pasture, and that functional metrics did not differ between oil palm and remnant forest. The abundance-size class profile of dung beetles in oil palm was more similar to forest than to pasture, which had lower abundances of the smallest and largest dung beetles. The abundance of tunneling and rolling dung beetles did not differ between oil palm and forest, while higher forest cover increased the abundance of diurnal and generalist-feeding beetles in oil palm landscapes. This suggests that prioritizing agricultural development on low-yielding cattle pasture will have positive effects on functional diversity and highlights the need for forest protection to maintain ecosystem functioning within agricultural landscapes.

Quaternary land bridges have not been universal conduits of gene flow.

Quaternary climate oscillations are a well-known driver of animal diversification, but their effects are most well studied in areas where glaciations lead to habitat fragmentation. In large areas of the planet, however, glaciations have had the opposite effect, but here their impacts are much less well understood. This is especially true in Southeast Asia, where cyclical changes in land distribution have generated enormous land expansions during glacial periods. In this study, we selected a panel of five songbird species complexes covering a range of ecological specificities to investigate the effects Quaternary land bridges have had on the connectivity of Southeast Asian forest biota. Specifically, we combined morphological and bioacoustic analysis with an arsenal of population genomic and modelling approaches applied to thousands of genome-wide DNA markers across a total of more than 100 individuals. Our analyses show that species dependent on forest understorey exhibit deep differentiation between Borneo and western Sundaland, with no evidence of gene flow during the land bridges accompanying the last 1-2 ice ages. In contrast, dispersive canopy species and habitat generalists have experienced more recent gene flow. Our results argue that there remains much cryptic species-level diversity to be discovered in Southeast Asia even in well-known animal groups such as birds, especially in nondispersive forest understorey inhabitants. We also demonstrate that Quaternary land bridges have not been equally suitable conduits of gene flow for all species complexes and that life history is a major factor in predicting relative population divergence time across Quaternary climate fluctuations.

Secondary forest fragments offer important carbon and biodiversity cobenefits.

Tropical forests store large amounts of carbon and high biodiversity, but are being degraded at alarming rates. The emerging global Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR) agenda seeks to limit global climate change by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through the growth of trees. In doing so, it may also protect biodiversity as a free cobenefit, which is vital given the massive shortfall in funding for biodiversity conservation. We investigated whether natural forest regeneration on abandoned pastureland offers such cobenefits, focusing for the first time on the recovery of taxonomic diversity (TD), phylogenetic diversity (PD) and functional diversity (FD) of trees, including the recovery of threatened and endemic species richness, within isolated secondary forest (SF) fragments. We focused on the globally threatened Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where commitments have been made to restore 1 million hectares under FLR. Three decades after land abandonment, regenerating forests had recovered ~20% (72 Mg/ha) of the above-ground carbon stocks of a primary forest (PF), with cattle pasture containing just 3% of stocks relative to PFs. Over this period, SF recovered ~76% of TD, 84% of PD and 96% of FD found within PFs. In addition, SFs had on average recovered 65% of threatened and ~30% of endemic species richness of primary Atlantic forest. Finally, we find positive relationships between carbon stock and tree diversity recovery. Our results emphasize that SF fragments offer cobenefits under FLR and other carbon-based payments for ecosystem service schemes (e.g. carbon enhancements under REDD+). They also indicate that even isolated patches of SF could help to mitigate climate change and the biodiversity extinction crisis by recovering species of high conservation concern and improving landscape connectivity.

Impacts of selective logging on the oxidative status of tropical understorey birds.

Selective logging is the dominant form of human disturbance in tropical forests, driving changes in the abundance of vertebrate and invertebrate populations relative to undisturbed old-growth forests. A key unresolved question is understanding which physiological mechanisms underlie different responses of species and functional groups to selective logging. Regulation of oxidative status is thought to be one major physiological mechanism underlying the capability of species to cope with environmental changes. Using a correlational cross-sectional approach, we compared a number of oxidative status markers among 15 understorey bird species in unlogged and selectively logged forest in Borneo in relation to their feeding guild. We then tested how variation of markers between forest types was associated with that in population abundance. Birds living in logged forests had a higher activity of the antioxidant enzyme superoxide dismutase and a different regulation of the glutathione cycle compared to conspecific birds in unlogged forest. However, neither oxidative damage nor oxidized glutathione differed between forest types. We also found that omnivores and insectivores differed significantly in all markers related to the key cellular antioxidant glutathione irrespective of the forest type. Species with higher levels of certain antioxidant markers in a given type of forest were less abundant in that forest type compared to the other. Our results suggest that there was little long-term effect of logging (last logging rotation occurred ~15 years prior to the study) on the oxidative status of understorey bird species. However, it is unclear if this was owing to plasticity or evolutionary change. Our correlative results also point to a potential negative association between some antioxidants and population abundance irrespective of the forest type.

Thermal tolerance and the importance of microhabitats for Andean frogs in the context of land use and climate change.

Global warming is having impacts across the Tree of Life. Understanding species' physiological sensitivity to temperature change and how they relate to local temperature variation in their habitats is crucial to determining vulnerability to global warming. We ask how species' vulnerability varies across habitats and elevations, and how climatically buffered microhabitats can contribute to reduce their vulnerability. We measured thermal sensitivity (critical thermal maximum-CTmax ) of 14 species of Pristimantis frogs inhabiting young and old secondary, and primary forests in the Colombian Andes. Exposure to temperature stress was measured by recording temperature in the understorey and across five microhabitats. We determined frogs' current vulnerability across habitats, elevations and microhabitats accounting for phylogeny and then ask how vulnerability varies under four warming scenarios: +1.5, +2, +3 and +5°C. We found that CTmax was constant across species regardless of habitat and elevation. However, species in young secondary forests are expected to become more vulnerable because of increased exposure to higher temperatures. Microhabitat variation could enable species to persist within their thermal temperature range as long as regional temperatures do not surpass +2°C. The effectiveness of microhabitat buffering decreases with a 2-3°C increase, and is almost null under a 5°C temperature increase. Microhabitats will provide thermal protection to Andean frog communities from climate change by enabling tracking of suitable climates through short distance movement. Conservation strategies, such as managing landscapes by preserving primary forests and allowing regrowth and reconnection of secondary forest would offer thermally buffered microhabitats and aid in the survival of this group.

Para determinar la vulnerabilidad de las especies al calentamiento global es indispensable considerar la tolerancia fisiológica de las especies al cambio de temperatura y las condiciones ambientales a las que están expuestas. En este estudio exploramos la vulnerabilidad de especies a través de diferentes hábitats y altitudes y examinamos si ciertos microhábitats contribuyen a reducir la vulnerabilidad al calentamiento global. Medimos la tolerancia térmica (CTmax ) de catorce especies de ranas Pristimantis en bosques secundarios jóvenes y viejos, y bosques primarios en los Andes tropicales. Registramos la temperatura a la que estas especies están expuestas en el sotobosque así como dentro de cinco microhábitats. Usando CTmax y las temperaturas a las que están expuestas, determinamos la vulnerabilidad de las especies en diferentes hábitats, elevaciones y microhábitats. También preguntamos cómo cambiará esta vulnerabilidad si la temperatura incrementa: 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C y 5°C. CTmax fue constante en todos los hábitats y elevaciones. Las especies de bosques secundarios jóvenes son más vulnerables pues están expuestas a temperaturas más altas. Al utilizar microhábitats, las especies estarán protegidas si el aumento de temperatura no supera los + 2°C. Todos los microhábitats seguirán proporcionando refugio térmico si la temperatura aumenta 1.5°C, pero esta protección térmica disminuirá si la temperatura aumenta 2-3°C y será casi nula con un aumento de temperatura de 5°C. Los microhábitats proporcionarán protección térmica a la comunidad de ranas de los Andes contra el cambio climático. Estrategias de conservación, como la regeneración natural y la reconexión de bosques secundarios y la preservación de bosques primarios, ayudaría a la supervivencia de las ranas al tener microhábitats que ofrecen refugio térmico.

A global strategy for road building.

The number and extent of roads will expand dramatically this century. Globally, at least 25 million kilometres of new roads are anticipated by 2050; a 60% increase in the total length of roads over that in 2010. Nine-tenths of all road construction is expected to occur in developing nations, including many regions that sustain exceptional biodiversity and vital ecosystem services. Roads penetrating into wilderness or frontier areas are a major proximate driver of habitat loss and fragmentation, wildfires, overhunting and other environmental degradation, often with irreversible impacts on ecosystems. Unfortunately, much road proliferation is chaotic or poorly planned, and the rate of expansion is so great that it often overwhelms the capacity of environmental planners and managers. Here we present a global scheme for prioritizing road building. This large-scale zoning plan seeks to limit the environmental costs of road expansion while maximizing its benefits for human development, by helping to increase agricultural production, which is an urgent priority given that global food demand could double by mid-century. Our analysis identifies areas with high environmental values where future road building should be avoided if possible, areas where strategic road improvements could promote agricultural development with relatively modest environmental costs, and 'conflict areas' where road building could have sizeable benefits for agriculture but with serious environmental damage. Our plan provides a template for proactively zoning and prioritizing roads during the most explosive era of road expansion in human history.

Land-sparing agriculture sustains higher levels of avian functional diversity than land sharing.

The ecological impacts of meeting rising demands for food production can potentially be mitigated by two competing land-use strategies: off-setting natural habitats through intensification of existing farmland (land sparing), or elevating biodiversity within the agricultural matrix via the integration of "wildlife-friendly" habitat features (land sharing). However, a key unanswered question is whether sparing or sharing farming would best conserve functional diversity, which can promote ecosystem stability and resilience to future land-use change. Focusing on bird communities in tropical cloud forests of the Colombian Andes, we test the performance of each strategy in conserving functional diversity. We show that multiple components of avian functional diversity in farmland are positively related to the proximity and extent of natural forest. Using landscape and community simulations, we also show that land-sparing agriculture conserves greater functional diversity and predicts higher abundance of species supplying key ecological functions than land sharing, with sharing becoming progressively inferior with increasing isolation from remnant forest. These results suggest low-intensity agriculture is likely to conserve little functional diversity unless large blocks of adjacent natural habitat are protected, consistent with land sparing. To ensure the retention of functionally diverse ecosystems, we urgently need to implement mechanisms for increasing farmland productivity whilst protecting spared land.