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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(1): e2304404120, 2024 Jan 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38109562

ABSTRACT

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Trees , Humans , Trees/physiology , Ecosystem , Pinus ponderosa , Forecasting
2.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(24): e2315700121, 2024 Jun 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38830099

ABSTRACT

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Extinction, Biological , Pinus , Pinus/physiology , Trees , Biodiversity , Forecasting/methods , Temperature , Climate Models
3.
Ecol Lett ; 25(1): 38-51, 2022 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34708503

ABSTRACT

Estimates of the percentage of species "committed to extinction" by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species' range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate-plus-competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species' distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range-limiting processes, including landscape-scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions-through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks-are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate-only perspective.


Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Pinus , Climate Change , Forests , Trees
4.
Glob Chang Biol ; 28(7): 2442-2460, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35023229

ABSTRACT

Robust ecological forecasting of tree growth under future climate conditions is critical to anticipate future forest carbon storage and flux. Here, we apply three ingredients of ecological forecasting that are key to improving forecast skill: data fusion, confronting model predictions with new data, and partitioning forecast uncertainty. Specifically, we present the first fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data within a Bayesian state-space model at a multi-site, regional scale, focusing on Pinus ponderosa var. brachyptera in the southwestern US. Leveraging the complementarity of these two data sources, we parsed the ecological complexity of tree growth into the effects of climate, tree size, stand density, site quality, and their interactions, and quantified uncertainties associated with these effects. New measurements of trees, an ongoing process in forest inventories, were used to confront forecasts of tree diameter with observations, and evaluate alternative tree growth models. We forecasted tree diameter and increment in response to an ensemble of climate change projections, and separated forecast uncertainty into four different causes: initial conditions, parameters, climate drivers, and process error. We found a strong negative effect of fall-spring maximum temperature, and a positive effect of water-year precipitation on tree growth. Furthermore, tree vulnerability to climate stress increases with greater competition, with tree size, and at poor sites. Under future climate scenarios, we forecast increment declines of 22%-117%, while the combined effect of climate and size-related trends results in a 56%-91% decline. Partitioning of forecast uncertainty showed that diameter forecast uncertainty is primarily caused by parameter and initial conditions uncertainty, but increment forecast uncertainty is mostly caused by process error and climate driver uncertainty. This fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data lays the foundation for robust ecological forecasting of aboveground biomass and carbon accounting at tree, plot, and regional scales, including iterative improvement of model skill.


Subject(s)
Forests , Pinus , Bayes Theorem , Carbon , Climate Change , Uncertainty
5.
Bioscience ; 72(3): 233-246, 2022 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35241971

ABSTRACT

Tree-ring time series provide long-term, annually resolved information on the growth of trees. When sampled in a systematic context, tree-ring data can be scaled to estimate the forest carbon capture and storage of landscapes, biomes, and-ultimately-the globe. A systematic effort to sample tree rings in national forest inventories would yield unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution of forest carbon dynamics and help resolve key scientific uncertainties, which we highlight in terms of evidence for forest greening (enhanced growth) versus browning (reduced growth, increased mortality). We describe jump-starting a tree-ring collection across the continent of North America, given the commitments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to visit forest inventory plots, along with existing legacy collections. Failing to do so would be a missed opportunity to help chart an evidence-based path toward meeting national commitments to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, urgently needed for climate stabilization and repair.

7.
Glob Chang Biol ; 26(9): 5146-5163, 2020 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32433807

ABSTRACT

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree-ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed-effects model to capture ring-width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas-fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi-arid interior. Ring-width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas-fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed-effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree-ring networks and results as a calibration target for next-generation vegetation models.


Subject(s)
Pseudotsuga , Climate Change , Ecosystem , North America , Northwestern United States , Trees
8.
Brain Behav Immun ; 90: 311-318, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32920182

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is associated with dysconnectivity of structural brain networks, impaired cognition and psychiatric disease. Systemic inflammation contributes to cerebral dysconnectivity, but the immune mediators driving this association are poorly understood. We analysed information from placenta, umbilical cord and neonatal blood, and brain MRI to determine which immune mediators link perinatal systemic inflammation with dysconnectivity of structural brain networks. METHODS: Participants were 102 preterm infants (mean gestational age 29+1 weeks, range 23+3-32+0). Placental histopathology identified reaction patterns indicative of histologic chorioamnionitis (HCA), and a customized immunoassay of 24 inflammation-associated proteins selected to reflect the neonatal innate and adaptive immune response was performed from umbilical cord (n = 55) and postnatal day 5 blood samples (n = 71). Brain MRI scans were acquired at term-equivalent age (41+0 weeks [range 38+0-44+4 weeks]) and alterations in white matter connectivity were inferred from mean diffusivity and neurite density index across the white matter skeleton. RESULTS: HCA was associated with elevated concentrations of C5a, C9, CRP, IL-1ß, IL-6, IL-8 and MCP-1 in cord blood, and IL-8 concentration predicted HCA with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.917 (95% CI 0.841 - 0.993, p < 0.001). Fourteen analytes explained 66% of the variance in the postnatal profile (BDNF, C3, C5a, C9, CRP, IL-1ß, IL-6, IL-8, IL-18, MCP-1, MIP-1ß, MMP-9, RANTES and TNF-α). Of these, IL-8 was associated with altered neurite density index across the white matter skeleton after adjustment for gestational age at birth and at scan (ß = 0.221, p = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that IL-8 dysregulation has a role in linking perinatal systemic inflammation and atypical white matter development in preterm infants.


Subject(s)
Interleukin-8 , Premature Birth , Brain/diagnostic imaging , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Infant, Premature , Placenta , Pregnancy
9.
Infection ; 48(2): 285-288, 2020 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31549360

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: There is increasing evidence indicating an association between invasive non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) infection in pregnancy and early pregnancy loss. As the diagnosis relies on microbiological investigation of post-mortem placental and foetal samples, a significant proportion of NTHi-related pregnancy loss remains unrecognised. To better characterise NTHi in septic abortion, we report NTHi cases associated with early pregnancy loss. METHODS: We reviewed all post-mortems at <24 weeks gestation with histologically proven acute chorioamnionitis on placental histology and enrolled cases with at least one matched foetal and placental sample culture positive for NTHi. The study was approved by the NHS Lothian Caldicott Guardian. RESULTS: In our cohort, invasive NTHi has accounted for 20% of infections associated with early pregnancy loss prior to 24 weeks gestation. All patients were young and healthy pregnant women at < 20 weeks' gestation who presented with abdominal pain, PV bleed /discharge and were septic at the time of presentation. One patient with previous history of miscarriage who presented with cervical incompetence had more severe pathology suggestive of early intrauterine pneumonia. CONCLUSION: The burden of invasive NTHi disease in early pregnancy loss is likely to be much larger than currently recognised. NTHi should be considered in pregnant women presenting with abdominal pain and PV bleed/discharge in whom clinical signs of sepsis are present. Active surveillance should be considered in this patient group including septic abortion to capture the true prevalence of this emerging pathogen to inform preventative and therapeutic approaches.


Subject(s)
Abortion, Spontaneous/etiology , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/complications , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/microbiology , Haemophilus Infections/complications , Adult , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/drug therapy , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/pathology , Female , Genotype , Haemophilus Infections/drug therapy , Haemophilus Infections/microbiology , Haemophilus Infections/pathology , Haemophilus influenzae/classification , Haemophilus influenzae/genetics , Humans , Scotland , Sepsis/drug therapy , Sepsis/microbiology
10.
Lancet ; 391(10129): 1483-1492, 2018 04 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29605429

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is the leading cause of post-neonatal infant death in high-income countries. Central respiratory system dysfunction seems to contribute to these deaths. Excitation that drives contraction of skeletal respiratory muscles is controlled by the sodium channel NaV1.4, which is encoded by the gene SCN4A. Variants in NaV1.4 that directly alter skeletal muscle excitability can cause myotonia, periodic paralysis, congenital myopathy, and myasthenic syndrome. SCN4A variants have also been found in infants with life-threatening apnoea and laryngospasm. We therefore hypothesised that rare, functionally disruptive SCN4A variants might be over-represented in infants who died from SIDS. METHODS: We did a case-control study, including two consecutive cohorts that included 278 SIDS cases of European ancestry and 729 ethnically matched controls without a history of cardiovascular, respiratory, or neurological disease. We compared the frequency of rare variants in SCN4A between groups (minor allele frequency <0·00005 in the Exome Aggregation Consortium). We assessed biophysical characterisation of the variant channels using a heterologous expression system. FINDINGS: Four (1·4%) of the 278 infants in the SIDS cohort had a rare functionally disruptive SCN4A variant compared with none (0%) of 729 ethnically matched controls (p=0·0057). INTERPRETATION: Rare SCN4A variants that directly alter NaV1.4 function occur in infants who had died from SIDS. These variants are predicted to significantly alter muscle membrane excitability and compromise respiratory and laryngeal function. These findings indicate that dysfunction of muscle sodium channels is a potentially modifiable risk factor in a subset of infant sudden deaths. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, the British Heart Foundation, Biotronik, Cardiac Risk in the Young, Higher Education Funding Council for England, Dravet Syndrome UK, the Epilepsy Society, the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development of the National Institutes of Health, and the Mayo Clinic Windland Smith Rice Comprehensive Sudden Cardiac Death Program.


Subject(s)
Muscle, Skeletal/physiopathology , Mutation , NAV1.4 Voltage-Gated Sodium Channel/genetics , Sudden Infant Death/genetics , Adult , Case-Control Studies , Female , Gene Frequency , Genetic Variation , Humans , Infant , Male , NAV1.4 Voltage-Gated Sodium Channel/physiology , Exome Sequencing/methods
11.
Genet Med ; 21(3): 641-649, 2019 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30139991

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is the commonest cause of sudden death of an infant; however, the genetic basis remains poorly understood. We aimed to identify noncardiac genes underpinning SIDS and determine their prevalence compared with ethnically matched controls. METHODS: Using exome sequencing we assessed the yield of ultrarare nonsynonymous variants (minor allele frequency [MAF] ≤0.00005, dominant model; MAF ≤0.01, recessive model) in 278 European SIDS cases (62% male; average age =2.7 ± 2 months) versus 973 European controls across 61 noncardiac SIDS-susceptibility genes. The variants were classified according to American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics criteria. Case-control, gene-collapsing analysis was performed in eight candidate biological pathways previously implicated in SIDS pathogenesis. RESULTS: Overall 43/278 SIDS cases harbored an ultrarare single-nucleotide variant compared with 114/973 controls (15.5 vs. 11.7%, p=0.10). Only 2/61 noncardiac genes were significantly overrepresented in cases compared with controls (ECE1, 3/278 [1%] vs. 1/973 [0.1%] p=0.036; SLC6A4, 2/278 [0.7%] vs. 1/973 [0.1%] p=0.049). There was no difference in yield of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants between cases and controls (1/278 [0.36%] vs. 4/973 [0.41%]; p=1.0). Gene-collapsing analysis did not identify any specific biological pathways to be significantly associated with SIDS. CONCLUSIONS: A monogenic basis for SIDS amongst the previously implicated noncardiac genes and their encoded biological pathways is negligible.


Subject(s)
Sudden Infant Death/genetics , Alleles , Autopsy , Case-Control Studies , Ethnicity/genetics , Exome , Female , Gene Frequency/genetics , Genetic Predisposition to Disease/genetics , Genetic Variation/genetics , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Mutation , United Kingdom , United States , White People/genetics , Exome Sequencing
12.
J Pediatr ; 203: 423-428.e11, 2018 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30268395

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a monogenic basis explains sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) using an exome-wide focus. STUDY DESIGN: A cohort of 427 unrelated cases of SIDS (257 male; average age = 2.7 ± 1.9 months) underwent whole-exome sequencing. Exome-wide rare variant analyses were carried out with 278 SIDS cases of European ancestry (173 male; average age = 2.7 ± 1.98 months) and 973 ethnic-matched controls based on 6 genetic models. Ingenuity Pathway Analysis also was performed. The cohort was collected in collaboration with coroners, medical examiners, and pathologists by St George's University of London, United Kingdom, and Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota. Whole-exome sequencing was performed at the Genomic Laboratory, Kings College London, United Kingdom, or Mayo Clinic's Medical Genome Facility, Rochester, Minnesota. RESULTS: Although no exome-wide significant (P < 2.5 × 10-6) difference in burden of ultra-rare variants was detected for any gene, 405 genes had a greater prevalence (P < .05) of ultra-rare nonsynonymous variants among cases with 17 genes at P < .005. Some of these potentially overrepresented genes may represent biologically plausible novel candidate genes for a monogenic basis for a portion of patients with SIDS. The top canonical pathway identified was glucocorticoid biosynthesis (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: The lack of exome-wide significant genetic associations indicates an extreme heterogeneity of etiologies underlying SIDS. Our approach to understanding the genetic mechanisms of SIDS has far reaching implications for the SIDS research community as a whole and may catalyze new evidence-based SIDS research across multiple disciplines. Perturbations in glucocorticoid biosynthesis may represent a novel SIDS-associated biological pathway for future SIDS investigative research.


Subject(s)
Exome , Genetic Predisposition to Disease , Sudden Infant Death/genetics , Autopsy , Case-Control Studies , Child , Child, Preschool , Ethnicity , Female , Genetic Variation , Humans , Infant , Male , Minnesota , Mutation , Sudden Infant Death/epidemiology , Sudden Infant Death/ethnology , United Kingdom
13.
Br J Nutr ; 120(1): 64-73, 2018 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29936924

ABSTRACT

Significant experimental evidence supports fat as a taste modality; however, the associated peripheral mechanisms are not well established. Several candidate taste receptors have been identified, but their expression pattern and potential functions in human fungiform papillae remain unknown. The aim of this study is to identify the fat taste candidate receptors and ion channels that were expressed in human fungiform taste buds and their association with oral sensory of fatty acids. For the expression analysis, quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) from RNA extracted from human fungiform papillae samples was used to determine the expression of candidate fatty acid receptors and ion channels. Western blotting analysis was used to confirm the presence of the proteins in fungiform papillae. Immunohistochemistry analysis was used to localise the expressed receptors or ion channels in the taste buds of fungiform papillae. The correlation study was analysed between the expression level of the expressed fat taste receptors or ion channels indicated by qRT-PCR and fat taste threshold, liking of fatty food and fat intake. As a result, qRT-PCR and western blotting indicated that mRNA and protein of CD36, FFAR4, FFAR2, GPR84 and delayed rectifying K+ channels are expressed in human fungiform taste buds. The expression level of CD36 was associated with the liking difference score (R -0·567, ß=-0·04, P=0·04) between high-fat and low-fat food and FFAR2 was associated with total fat intake (ρ=-0·535, ß=-0·01, P=0·003) and saturated fat intake (ρ=-0·641, ß=-0·02, P=0·008).


Subject(s)
CD36 Antigens/genetics , Fats/chemistry , Receptors, Cell Surface/genetics , Taste Buds/physiology , Taste/physiology , Adult , Fatty Acids/chemistry , Female , Gene Expression Profiling , Gene Expression Regulation , Humans , Immunohistochemistry , Male , Middle Aged , Phenotype , Twins, Dizygotic , Twins, Monozygotic , Young Adult
14.
J Paediatr Child Health ; 54(12): 1314-1320, 2018 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29888413

ABSTRACT

AIM: Late-onset sepsis (LOS) is a frequent and important cause of morbidity and mortality in newborn infants admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of various infection control quality measures introduced as a bundle on the trends of the LOS in a NICU. METHODS: This was a prospective quality improvement study involving all neonates admitted to a NICU over a 15-year period between 2002 and 2016. The main focus areas of the bundle included collaborative team effort, hand hygiene, education, central line insertion and maintenance bundles and parenteral nutrition. The main outcome measures were LOS and central line-associated bloodstream infections. RESULTS: Yearly admissions increased during study period, from 776 in 2002 to 952 in 2016. There was a progressive decrease in LOS rate, from 4.3 to 1.6 per 1000 patient days (B coefficient -0.17, 95% confidence interval -0.25, -0.09; P < 0.001), and the central line-associated bloodstream infection rate dropped from 25 in 2003 to 5 in 2016 per 1000 central line days (B coefficient -1.20, 95% confidence interval -1.84, -0.56; P = 0.001). Hand hygiene compliance rates remained consistent, over 80%. During the study period, coagulase-negative staphylococcus caused 56% and Gram-negative organisms 18% of the total infections. CONCLUSION: Multifaceted infection control bundle practices with a concerted team effort in the implementation, with continuing education, feedback and reinforcement of best infection control practices, can sustain the gains achieved by infection control for a long period of time.


Subject(s)
Cross Infection/prevention & control , Infection Control/organization & administration , Intensive Care Units, Neonatal , Sepsis/prevention & control , Catheterization, Central Venous/adverse effects , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Humans , Infection Control/trends , New South Wales , Population Surveillance , Prospective Studies , Quality Improvement , Sepsis/epidemiology
15.
Am J Pathol ; 186(4): 952-61, 2016 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26851347

ABSTRACT

Villitis of unknown etiology (VUE) is an enigmatic inflammatory condition of the placenta associated with fetal growth restriction and stillbirth. Greater understanding of this condition is essential to understand its contribution to adverse outcomes. Our aim was to identify and quantify the cells in VUE in cases of stillbirth and to characterize immune responses specific to this condition. Immunohistochemistry was performed on placentas from stillborn infants whose cause of death was recorded as VUE to identify CD45(+) leukocytes, CD163(+) macrophages, CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells, neutrophils, and proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines. Images were quantified with HistoQuest software. CD45(+) leukocytes comprised 25% of cells in VUE lesions: macrophages (12%) and CD4 T cells (11%) being predominant cell types; CD8 T cells were observed in all lesions. Leukocytes and macrophages were increased throughout the placenta in stillbirths; pan-placental CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells outside VUE lesions were increased in stillbirth with VUE. There was increased IL-2 and IL-12 and reduced IL-4 immunostaining in VUE lesions. Our results suggest VUE in stillbirth has a similar immune cell profile to live birth. Pan-placental macrophages, CD4 and CD8 T cells indicate a wider inflammatory response unrestricted to VUE lesions. The cytokine profile observed suggests a skew towards inappropriate Th1 immune responses. Full characterisation VUE lesion phenotype confirms its immunological origins and provides foundations to develop novel investigations.


Subject(s)
CD8-Positive T-Lymphocytes/immunology , Chorionic Villi/metabolism , Inflammation/pathology , Placenta Diseases/pathology , Placenta/pathology , Stillbirth/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Chorionic Villi/immunology , Female , Humans , Inflammation/complications , Inflammation/immunology , Macrophages/metabolism , Placenta/metabolism , Placenta Diseases/immunology , Pregnancy , Young Adult
16.
Ecol Appl ; 27(7): 2128-2141, 2017 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28675670

ABSTRACT

Global environmental change is expected to induce widespread changes in the geographic distribution and biomass of forest communities. Impacts have been projected from both empirical (statistical) and mechanistic (physiology-based) modelling approaches, but there remains an important gap in accurately predicting abundance across species' ranges from spatial variation in individual-level demographic processes. We address this issue by using a cohort-based forest dynamics model (CAIN) to predict spatial variation in the abundance of six plant functional types (PFTs) across the eastern United States. The model simulates tree-level growth, mortality, and recruitment, which we parameterized from data on both individual-level demographic rates and population-level abundance using Bayesian inverse modelling. Across a set of 1° grid cells, we calibrated local growth, mortality, and recruitment rates for each PFT to obtain a close match between predicted age-specific PFT basal area in forest stands and that observed in 46,603 Forest Inventory and Analysis plots. The resulting models produced a strong fit to PFT basal area across the region (R2  = 0.66-0.87), captured successional changes in PFT composition with stand age, and predicted the overall stem diameter distribution well. The mortality rates needed to accurately predict basal area were consistently higher than observed mortality, possibly because sampling effects led to biased individual-level mortality estimates across spatially heterogeneous plots. Growth and recruitment rates did not show consistent directional changes from observed values. Relative basal area was most strongly influenced by recruitment processes, but the effects of growth and mortality tended to increase as stands matured. Our study illustrates how both top-down (population-level) and bottom-up (individual-level) data can be combined to predict variation in abundance from size, environmental, and competitive effects on tree demography. Evidence for how demographic processes influence variation in abundance, as provided by our model, can help in understanding how these forests may respond to future environmental change.


Subject(s)
Ecology/methods , Forestry/methods , Forests , Trees/physiology , Bayes Theorem , Biodiversity , Demography , Models, Biological , Population Dynamics , United States
17.
Ecol Lett ; 19(9): 1119-28, 2016 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27434040

ABSTRACT

Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Trees/growth & development , Forests , North America , Temperature
18.
Biochim Biophys Acta ; 1843(12): 2827-37, 2014 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25173814

ABSTRACT

Atmospheric pressure gas plasma (AGP) generates reactive oxygen species (ROS) that induce apoptosis in cultured cancer cells. The majority of cancer cells develop a ROS-scavenging anti-oxidant system regulated by Nrf2, which confers resistance to ROS-mediated cancer cell death. Generation of ROS is involved in the AGP-induced cancer cell death of several colorectal cancer cells (Caco2, HCT116 and SW480) by activation of ASK1-mediated apoptosis signaling pathway without affecting control cells (human colonic sub-epithelial myofibroblasts; CO18, human fetal lung fibroblast; MRC5 and fetal human colon; FHC). However, the identity of an oxidase participating in AGP-induced cancer cell death is unknown. Here, we report that AGP up-regulates the expression of Nox2 (NADPH oxidase) to produce ROS. RNA interference designed to target Nox2 effectively inhibits the AGP-induced ROS production and cancer cell death. In some cases both colorectal cancer HT29 and control cells showed resistance to AGP treatment. Compared to AGP-sensitive Caco2 cells, HT29 cells show a higher basal level of the anti-oxidant system transcriptional regulator Nrf2 and its target protein sulfiredoxin (Srx) which are involved in cellular redox homeostasis. Silencing of both Nrf2 and Srx sensitized HT29 cells, leads to ROS overproduction and decreased cell viability. This indicates that in HT29 cells, Nrf2/Srx axis is a protective factor against AGP-induced oxidative stress. The inhibition of Nrf2/Srx signaling should be considered as a central target in drug-resistant colorectal cancer treatments.

19.
Syst Biol ; 63(5): 697-711, 2014 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24852061

ABSTRACT

Patterns of adaptation in response to environmental variation are central to our understanding of biodiversity, but predictions of how and when broad-scale environmental conditions such as climate affect organismal form and function remain incomplete. Succulent plants have evolved in response to arid conditions repeatedly, with various plant organs such as leaves, stems, and roots physically modified to increase water storage. Here, we investigate the role played by climate conditions in shaping the evolution of succulent forms in a plant clade endemic to Madagascar and the surrounding islands, part of the hyper-diverse genus Euphorbia (Euphorbiaceae). We used multivariate ordination of 19 climate variables to identify links between particular climate variables and three major forms of succulence-succulent leaves, cactiform stem succulence, and tubers. We then tested the relationship between climatic conditions and succulence, using comparative methods that account for shared evolutionary history. We confirm that plant water storage is associated with the two components of aridity, temperature, and precipitation. Cactiform stem succulence, however, is not prevalent in the driest environments, countering the widely held view of cactiforms as desert icons. Instead, leaf succulence and tubers are significantly associated with the lowest levels of precipitation. Our findings provide a clear link between broad-scale climatic conditions and adaptation in land plants, and new insights into the climatic conditions favoring different forms of succulence. This evidence for adaptation to climate raises concern over the evolutionary future of succulent plants as they, along with other organisms, face anthropogenic climate change.


Subject(s)
Biodiversity , Climate , Euphorbia/classification , Euphorbia/physiology , Phylogeny , Euphorbia/genetics , Genetic Markers/genetics , Genetic Speciation , Madagascar , Plant Leaves/physiology
20.
J Mater Sci Mater Med ; 26(11): 261, 2015 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26449451

ABSTRACT

The research developed on functionalized model or prosthetic surfaces with bioactive polymers has raised the possibility to modulate and/or control the biological in vitro and in vivo responses to synthetic biomaterials. The mechanisms underlying the bioactivity exhibited by sulfonated groups on surfaces involves both selective adsorption and conformational changes of adsorbed proteins. Indeed, surfaces functionalized by grafting poly(sodium styrene sulfonate) [poly(NaSS)] modulate the cellular and bacterial response by inducing specific interactions with fibronectin (Fn). Once implanted, a biomaterial surface is exposed to a milieu of many proteins that compete for the surface which dictates the subsequent biological response. Once understood, this can be controlled by dictating exposure of active binding sites. In this in vitro study, we report the influence of binary mixtures of proteins [albumin (BSA), Fn and collagen type I (Col I)] adsorbed on poly(NaSS) grafted Ti6Al4V on the adhesion and differentiation of MC3T3-E1 osteoblast-like cells and the adhesion and proliferation of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus). Outcomes showed that poly(NaSS) stimulated cell spreading, attachment strength, differentiation and mineralization, whatever the nature of protein provided at the interface compared with ungrafted Ti6Al4V (control). While in competition, Fn and Col I were capable of prevailing over BSA. Fn played an important role in the early interactions of the cells with the surface, while Col I was responsible for increased alkaline phosphatase, calcium and phosphate productions associated with differentiation. Poly(NaSS) grafted surfaces decreased the adhesion of S. aureus and the presence of Fn on these chemically altered surfaces increased bacterial resistance ≈70% compared to the ungrafted Ti6Al4V. Overall, our study showed that poly(NaSS) grafted Ti6Al4V selectively adsorbed proteins (particularly Fn) promoting the adhesion and differentiation of osteoblast-like cells while reducing bacterial adhesion to create a bioactive surface with potential for orthopaedic applications.


Subject(s)
Bacterial Proteins/chemistry , Polymers/chemistry , Staphylococcus aureus/physiology , Titanium/chemistry , 3T3 Cells , Animals , Bacterial Adhesion , Cell Differentiation , Cell Proliferation , Mice , Protein Binding , Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared , Surface Properties
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