Reconstructing household transmission dynamics to estimate the infectiousness of asymptomatic influenza virus infections.

There has long been controversy over the potential for asymptomatic cases of the influenza virus to have the capacity for onward transmission, but recognition of asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 stimulates further research into this topic. Here, we develop a Bayesian methodology to analyze detailed data from a large cohort of 727 households and 2515 individuals in the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in Hong Kong to characterize household transmission dynamics and to estimate the relative infectiousness of asymptomatic versus symptomatic influenza cases. The posterior probability that asymptomatic cases [36% of cases; 95% credible interval (CrI): 32%, 40%] are less infectious than symptomatic cases is 0.82, with estimated relative infectiousness 0.57 (95% CrI: 0.11, 1.54). More data are required to strengthen our understanding of the contribution of asymptomatic cases to the spread of influenza.

Decreased risk of non-influenza respiratory infection after influenza B virus infection in children.

Previous studies suggest that influenza virus infection may provide temporary non-specific immunity and hence lower the risk of non-influenza respiratory virus infection. In a randomized controlled trial of influenza vaccination, 1 330 children were followed-up in 2009-2011. Respiratory swabs were collected when they reported acute respiratory illness and tested against influenza and other respiratory viruses. We used Poisson regression to compare the incidence of non-influenza respiratory virus infection before and after influenza virus infection. Based on 52 children with influenza B virus infection, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of non-influenza respiratory virus infection after influenza virus infection was 0.47 (95% confidence interval: 0.27-0.82) compared with before infection. Simulation suggested that this IRR was 0.87 if the temporary protection did not exist. We identified a decreased risk of non-influenza respiratory virus infection after influenza B virus infection in children. Further investigation is needed to determine if this decreased risk could be attributed to temporary non-specific immunity acquired from influenza virus infection.

Standard-dose versus MF59-adjuvanted, high-dose or recombinant-hemagglutinin influenza vaccine immunogenicity in older adults: comparison of A(H3N2) antibody response by prior season's vaccine status.

BACKGROUND: Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for older adults but repeated vaccination with standard-dose influenza vaccine has been linked to reduced immunogenicity and effectiveness, especially against A(H3N2) viruses. METHODS: Community-dwelling Hong Kong adults aged 65-82 years were randomly allocated to receive 2017/18 standard-dose quadrivalent, MF59-adjuvanted trivalent, high-dose trivalent, and recombinant-HA quadrivalent vaccination. Antibody response to unchanged A(H3N2) vaccine antigen was compared among participants with and without self-reported prior year (2016/17) standard-dose vaccination. RESULTS: Mean fold rise (MFR) in antibody titers from Day 0 to Day 30 by hemagglutination inhibition and virus microneutralization assays were lower among 2017/18 standard-dose and enhanced vaccine recipients with (range, 1.7-3.0) vs. without (range, 4.3-14.3) prior 2016/17 vaccination. MFR was significantly reduced by about one half to four fifths for previously vaccinated recipients of standard-dose and all three enhanced vaccines (ß range, 0.21-0.48). Among prior-year vaccinated older adults, enhanced vaccines induced higher 1.43 to 2.39-fold geometric mean titers and 1.28 to 1.74-fold MFR vs. standard-dose vaccine by microneutralization assay. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of unchanged A(H3N2) vaccine strain, prior-year vaccination was associated with reduced antibody response among both standard-dose and enhanced influenza vaccine recipients. Enhanced vaccines improved antibody response among older adults with prior-year standard-dose vaccination.

Biphasic Waning of Hemagglutination Inhibition Antibody Titers After Influenza Vaccination in Children.

We explored the potential for a biphasic pattern in waning of antibody titers after influenza vaccination. We collected blood samples in a randomized controlled trial of influenza vaccination in children and tested them with hemagglutination inhibition assays for influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B/Victoria lineage. Using piecewise log-linear mixed-effects models, we found evidence for a faster initial waning of antibody titers for the first 1-2 years after vaccination and then slower longer-term declines. Children with higher postvaccination titers had faster antibody decay.

Investigation of CD4 and CD8 T cell-mediated protection against influenza A virus in a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The protective effect of T cell-mediated immunity against influenza virus infections in natural settings remains unclear, especially in seasonal epidemics. METHODS: To explore the potential of such protection, we analyzed the blood samples collected longitudinally in a community-based study and covered the first wave of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), two subsequent pH1N1 epidemics, and three seasonal H3N2 influenza A epidemics (H3N2) for which we measured pre-existing influenza virus-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses by intracellular IFN-γ staining assay for 965 whole blood samples. RESULTS: Based on logistic regression, we found that higher pre-existing influenza virus-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses were associated with lower infection odds for corresponding subtypes. Every fold increase in H3N2-specific CD4 and CD8 T cells was associated with 28% (95% CI 8%, 44%) and 26% (95% CI 8%, 41%) lower H3N2 infection odds, respectively. Every fold increase in pre-existing seasonal H1N1 influenza A virus (sH1N1)-specific CD4 and CD8 T cells was associated with 28% (95% CI 11%, 41%) and 22% (95% CI 8%, 33%) lower pH1N1 infection odds, respectively. We observed the same associations for individuals with pre-epidemic hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titers < 40. There was no correlation between pre-existing influenza virus-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell response and HAI titer. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated homosubtypic and cross-strain protection against influenza infections was associated with T cell response, especially CD4 T cell response. These protections were independent of the protection associated with HAI titer. Therefore, T cell response could be an assessment of individual and population immunity for future epidemics and pandemics, in addition to using HAI titer.

Estimating excess septicaemia mortality and hospitalisation burden associated with influenza in Hong Kong, 1998 to 2019.

Influenza virus infections can lead to a number of secondary complications, including sepsis. We applied linear regression models to mortality and hospital admission data coded for septicaemia from 1998 to 2019 in Hong Kong, and estimated that septicaemia was associated with an annual average excess mortality rate of 0.23 (95% CI 0.04-0.40) per 100 000 persons per year and an excess septicaemia hospitalisation rate of 1.73 (95% CI 0.94-2.50) per 100 000 persons per year. The highest excess morbidity and mortality was found in older adults and young children, and during influenza A(H3N2) epidemics.

The Effect of Influenza Vaccination History on Changes in Hemagglutination Inhibition Titers After Receipt of the 2015-2016 Influenza Vaccine in Older Adults in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Immune responses to influenza vaccination can be weaker in older adults than in other age groups. We hypothesized that antibody responses would be particularly weak among repeat vaccinees when the current and prior season vaccine components are the same. METHODS: An observational study was conducted among 827 older adults (aged ≥75 years) in Hong Kong. Serum samples were collected immediately before and 1 month after receipt of the 2015-2016 quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine. We measured antibody titers with the hemagglutination inhibition assay and compared the mean fold rise from prevaccination to postvaccination titers and the proportions with postvaccination titers ≥40 or ≥160. RESULTS: Participants who reported receipt of vaccination during either of the previous 2 years had a lower mean fold rise against all strains than with those who did not. Mean fold rises for A(H3N2) and B/Yamagata were particularly weak after repeated vaccination with the same vaccine strain, but we did not generally find significant differences in the proportions of participants with postvaccination titers ≥40 and ≥160. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we found that reduced antibody responses in repeat vaccinees were particularly reduced among older adults who had received vaccination against the same strains in preceding years.

Comparative Reactogenicity of Enhanced Influenza Vaccines in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: We analyzed data from a randomized controlled trial on the reactogenicity of 3 enhanced influenza vaccines compared with standard-dose (SD) inactivated influenza vaccine. METHODS: We enrolled community-dwelling older adults in Hong Kong, and we randomly allocated them to receive 2017-2018 northern hemisphere formulations of SD vaccine (FluQuadri; Sanofi Pasteur), MF59-adjuvanted vaccine (FLUAD; Seqirus), high-dose (HD) vaccine (Fluzone High-Dose; Sanofi Pasteur), or recombinant hemagglutinin vaccine (Flublok; Sanofi Pasteur). Local and systemic reactions were evaluated at days 1, 3, 7, and 14 after vaccination. RESULTS: Reported reactions were generally mild and short-lived. Systemic reactions occurred in similar proportions of participants by vaccine. Some local reactions were slightly more frequently reported among recipients of the MF59-adjuvanted and HD vaccines than among SD vaccine recipients. Participants reporting feverishness 1 day after vaccination had mean fold rises in postvaccination hemagglutination inhibition titers that were 1.85-fold higher (95% confidence interval, 1.01-3.38) for A(H1N1) than in those who did not report feverishness. CONCLUSIONS: Some acute local reactions were more frequent after vaccination with MF59-adjuvanted and HD influenza vaccines, compared with SD inactivated influenza vaccine, whereas systemic symptoms occurred at similar frequencies in all groups. The association between feverishness and immunogenicity should be further investigated in a larger population. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03330132.

Maternal Antibodies Against Influenza in Cord Blood and Protection Against Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza in Infants.

BACKGROUND: Studies that correlate maternal antibodies with protection from influenza A or B virus infection in young infants in areas with prolonged influenza circulation are lacking. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, observational study to evaluate the effects of maternally transferred antibodies against influenza A and B viruses against laboratory-confirmed influenza in a cohort born over 24 months. Cord blood samples were retrieved at birth and infants were actively followed for the first 6 months of life. Nasal swabs were collected and tested for influenza A and B by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction whenever an illness episode was identified. Cord blood samples were tested by the hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay to viruses that circulated during the follow-up period. RESULTS: 1162 infants were born to 1140 recruited women: 1092 (94%) infants completed 6 months of follow-up. Proportions of cord blood with HAI antibody titers ≥40 against A(H1N1), A(H3N2), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata were 31%, 24%, 31%, and 54%, respectively. Only 4% of women had maternal influenza vaccination. Cord blood antigen-specific HAI titers ≥40 were found to correlate with protection from infection only for influenza B/Yamagata. No influenza B virus infection occurred in infants ≤60 days old. Proportional hazards analysis showed that a cord blood HAI titer of 40 was associated with 83% (95% confidence interval, 44-95%) reduction in the risk of influenza B/Yamagata infections compared with a cord blood titer <10. CONCLUSIONS: We documented that maternal immunity against influenza B/Yamagata was conferred to infants within the first 6 months of life.

Comparative Immunogenicity of Several Enhanced Influenza Vaccine Options for Older Adults: A Randomized, Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced influenza vaccines may improve protection for older adults, but comparative immunogenicity data are limited. Our objective was to examine immune responses to enhanced influenza vaccines, compared to standard-dose vaccines, in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Community-dwelling older adults aged 65-82 years in Hong Kong were randomly allocated (October 2017-January 2018) to receive 2017-2018 Northern hemisphere formulations of a standard-dose quadrivalent vaccine, MF59-adjuvanted trivalent vaccine, high-dose trivalent vaccine, or recombinant-hemagglutinin (rHA) quadrivalent vaccine. Sera collected from 200 recipients of each vaccine before and at 30-days postvaccination were assessed for antibodies to egg-propagated vaccine strains by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and to cell-propagated A/Hong Kong/4801/2014(H3N2) virus by microneutralization (MN). Influenza-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses were assessed in 20 participants per group. RESULTS: Mean fold rises (MFR) in HAI titers to egg-propagated A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) and the MFR in MN to cell-propagated A(H3N2) were statistically significantly higher in the enhanced vaccine groups, compared to the standard-dose vaccine. The MFR in MN to cell-propagated A(H3N2) was highest among rHA recipients (4.7), followed by high-dose (3.4) and MF59-adjuvanted (2.9) recipients, compared to standard-dose recipients (2.3). Similarly, the ratio of postvaccination MN titers among rHA recipients to cell-propagated A(H3N2) recipients was 2.57-fold higher than the standard-dose vaccine, which was statistically higher than the high-dose (1.33-fold) and MF59-adjuvanted (1.43-fold) recipient ratios. Enhanced vaccines also resulted in the boosting of T-cell responses. CONCLUSIONS: In this head-to-head comparison, older adults receiving enhanced vaccines showed improved humoral and cell-mediated immune responses, compared to standard-dose vaccine recipients. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03330132.

Influenza Hemagglutination-inhibition Antibody Titer as a Mediator of Vaccine-induced Protection for Influenza B.

BACKGROUND: The hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay is an established correlate of protection for the inactivated influenza vaccine. However, the proportion of vaccine-induced protection that is mediated by the post-vaccination HAI titer has not been assessed. METHODS: We used data from a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of a split-virion inactivated influenza vaccine in children aged 6-17 years. Sera were collected before and 30 days after receipt of vaccination or placebo and tested by the HAI assay against B/Brisbane/60/2008-like (B/Victoria lineage). We fitted Cox proportional hazards models to the time to laboratory-confirmed influenza B. We used causal mediation analysis to estimate the proportion of the total effect of vaccination that was mediated by higher HAI titers. RESULTS: We estimated that vaccine efficacy against confirmed B/Victoria infection was 68% (95% confidence interval, 33%, 88%), and post-vaccination HAI titers explained 57% of the effect of vaccination on protection. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the effect of inactivated influenza vaccination in children is mediated by the increased HAI titer after vaccination; however, other components of the immune response to vaccination may also play a role in protection and should be further explored. Causal mediation analysis provides a framework to quantify the role of various mediators of protection.

Real-time estimation of the influenza-associated excess mortality in Hong Kong.

Statistical models are commonly employed in the estimation of influenza-associated excess mortality that, due to various reasons, is often underestimated by laboratory-confirmed influenza deaths reported by healthcare facilities. However, methodology for timely and reliable estimation of that impact remains limited because of the delay in mortality data reporting. We explored real-time estimation of influenza-associated excess mortality by types/subtypes in each year between 2012 and 2018 in Hong Kong using linear regression models fitted to historical mortality and influenza surveillance data. We could predict that during the winter of 2017/2018, there were ~634 (95% confidence interval (CI): (190, 1033)) influenza-associated excess all-cause deaths in Hong Kong in population ⩾18 years, compared to 259 reported laboratory-confirmed deaths. We estimated that influenza was associated with substantial excess deaths in older adults, suggesting the implementation of control measures, such as administration of antivirals and vaccination, in that age group. The approach that we developed appears to provide robust real-time estimates of the impact of influenza circulation and complement surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed deaths. These results improve our understanding of the impact of influenza epidemics and provide a practical approach for a timely estimation of the mortality burden of influenza circulation during an ongoing epidemic.

Immune Responses to Twice-Annual Influenza Vaccination in Older Adults in Hong Kong.

Background: Many health authorities recommend influenza vaccination of older adults to reduce disease burden. We hypothesized that in tropical and subtropical areas with more prolonged influenza seasons, twice-annual influenza vaccination might provide older adults with improved immunity against influenza. Methods: In 2014-2015, Hong Kong experienced a substantial A(H3N2) winter epidemic with a mismatched vaccine. Local authorities procured and administered to older adults the 2015 southern hemisphere influenza vaccine, which included an updated and matching A/Switzerland/9715293/2013(H3N2) strain. We compared immune parameters in pre- and postvaccination sera from older adults ≥75 years of age who received 1 vs 2 influenza vaccines per year. Results: We enrolled 978 older adults with 470 vaccinations for summer 2015 and 827 vaccinations for winter 2015-2016. Recipients of southern hemisphere vaccination had higher geometric mean titers (GMTs) by the hemagglutination inhibition assay against all 3 vaccine strains. When receiving influenza vaccination for the subsequent winter, the southern hemisphere vaccine recipients had higher prevaccination GMTs but lower postvaccination GMTs, compared to those who had not received the southern hemisphere vaccine. Furthermore, cellular immunity was impacted by biannual vaccination, with reduced influenza-specific CD4 T-cell responses in the second season of vaccination. Conclusions: We observed some reductions in immune responses in the twice-annual vaccination group compared with the once-annual vaccination group, in the context of unchanging vaccine strains, while protection was likely to have been improved during the summer and autumn for the twice-annual vaccination group due to the continued circulation of the A/Switzerland/9715293/2013(H3N2) virus.

Mitigation of Influenza B Epidemic with School Closures, Hong Kong, 2018.

In winter 2018, schools in Hong Kong were closed 1 week before the scheduled Chinese New Year holiday to mitigate an influenza B virus epidemic. The intervention occurred after the epidemic peak and reduced overall incidence by ≈4.2%. School-based vaccination programs should be implemented to more effectively reduce influenza illnesses.

Variation in Influenza B Virus Epidemiology by Lineage, China.

We used national sentinel surveillance data in China for 2005-2016 to examine the lineage-specific epidemiology of influenza B. Influenza B viruses circulated every year with relatively lower activity than influenza A. B/Yamagata was more frequently detected in adults than in children.

Population-Based Pediatric Hospitalization Burden of Lineage-Specific Influenza B in Hong Kong, 2004-2014.

BACKGROUND: Influenza B virus has been perceived to cause less disease burden and milder disease compared with influenza A, but recent studies suggest that influenza B does have a significant impact. We aimed to estimate the burden of influenza B virus infections on hospitalizations in Hong Kong, in the context of virus lineage changes over time. METHODS: The pediatric age-specific rates of influenza B hospitalization in Hong Kong for 2004-2014 were estimated based on admissions to 2 hospitals that together catered for 72.5% of all pediatric admissions on Hong Kong Island. Influenza B virus was detected by immunofluorescence and culture on nasopharyngeal aspirates. Lineage typing was performed by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: A total of 5085 children were recruited on 1 designated day each week, year-round during the 11 years, and 221 (4.3%) tested positive for influenza B. Hospitalization rates were highest in children aged 2 to <5 years with year-to-year variation. Victoria-lineage viruses appeared to be associated with a greater fraction of influenza B hospitalizations in children than of influenza B infections in the general community. Influenza B did not cause significant hospitalization in infants <1 year of age. CONCLUSIONS: We report one of the first population-based, age- and lineage-specific studies of pediatric hospitalization for influenza B. We found that changes in lineage were associated with higher hospitalization rates and documented that Victoria lineage viruses were associated with greater pediatric hospitalization burden compared with Yamagata lineage viruses.

Viral Shedding and Transmission Potential of Asymptomatic and Paucisymptomatic Influenza Virus Infections in the Community.

Background: Influenza virus infections are associated with a wide spectrum of disease. However, few studies have investigated in detail the epidemiological and virological characteristics of asymptomatic and mild illness with influenza virus infections. Methods: In a community-based study in Hong Kong from 2008 to 2014, we followed up initially healthy individuals who were household contacts of symptomatic persons with laboratory-confirmed influenza, to identify secondary infections. Information from daily symptom diaries was used to classify infections as symptomatic (≥2 signs/symptoms, including fever ≥37.8°C, headache, myalgia, cough, sore throat, runny nose and sputum), paucisymptomatic (1 symptom only), or asymptomatic (none of these symptoms). We compared the patterns of influenza viral shedding between these groups. Results: We identified 235 virologically confirmed secondary cases of influenza virus infection in the household setting, including 31 (13%) paucisymptomatic and 25 (11%) asymptomatic cases. The duration of viral RNA shedding was shorter and declined more rapidly in paucisymptomatic and asymptomatic than in symptomatic cases. The mean levels of influenza viral RNA shedding in asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases were approximately 1-2 log10 copies lower than in symptomatic cases. Conclusions: The presence of influenza viral shedding in patients with influenza who have very few or no symptoms reflects their potential for transmitting the virus to close contacts. These findings suggest that further research is needed to investigate the contribution of persons with asymptomatic or clinically mild influenza virus infections to influenza virus transmission in household, institutional, and community settings.

Preliminary Epidemiologic Assessment of Human Infections With Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N6) Virus, China.

BACKGROUND: Since 2014, 17 human cases of infection with the newly emerged highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N6) virus have been identified in China to date. The epidemiologic characteristics of laboratory-confirmed A(H5N6) cases were compared to A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) cases in mainland China. METHODS: Data on laboratory-confirmed H5N6, H5N1, and H7N9 cases identified in mainland China were analyzed to compare epidemiologic characteristics and clinical severity. Severity of confirmed H5N6, H5N1 and H7N9 cases was estimated based on the risk of severe outcomes in hospitalized cases. RESULTS: H5N6 cases were older than H5N1 cases with a higher prevalence of underlying medical conditions but younger than H7N9 cases. Epidemiological time-to-event distributions were similar among cases infected with the 3 viruses. In comparison to a fatality risk of 70% (30/43) for hospitalized H5N1 cases and 41% (319/782) for hospitalized H7N9 cases, 12 (75%) out of the 16 hospitalized H5N6 cases were fatal, and 15 (94%) required mechanical ventilation. CONCLUSION: Similar epidemiologic characteristics and high severity were observed in cases of H5N6 and H5N1 virus infection, whereas severity of H7N9 virus infections appeared lower. Continued surveillance of human infections with avian influenza A viruses remains an essential component of pandemic influenza preparedness.

The Dynamic Relationship Between Clinical Symptomatology and Viral Shedding in Naturally Acquired Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Virus Infections.

BACKGROUND: Although the pattern of viral shedding over time has been documented in volunteer challenge studies, understanding of the relationship between clinical symptomatology and viral shedding in naturally acquired influenza infections in humans remains limited. METHODS: In a community-based study in Hong Kong from 2008 to 2014, we followed up initially healthy individuals and identified 224 secondary cases of natural influenza virus infection in the household setting. We examined the dynamic relationship between patterns of clinical symptomatology and viral shedding as quantified using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and viral culture in 127 cases with a clinical picture of acute respiratory infection. RESULTS: Viral shedding in influenza A virus infections peaked on the first 1-2 days of clinical illness, and decreased gradually to undetectable levels by day 6-7, matching closely with the dynamics of clinical illness. Viral shedding in influenza B virus infections rose up to 2 days prior to symptom onset and persisted for 6-7 days after onset with a bimodal pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that while clinical illness profiles may serve as a proxy for clinical infectiousness in influenza A virus infections, patients may potentially be infectious even before symptom onset or after clinical improvement in influenza B virus infections.

Human Infection with Influenza A(H7N9) Virus during 3 Major Epidemic Waves, China, 2013-2015.

Since March 2013, a novel influenza A(H7N9) virus has caused 3 epidemic waves of human infection in mainland China. We analyzed data from patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H7N9) virus infection to estimate the risks for severe outcomes after hospitalization across the 3 waves. We found that hospitalized patients with confirmed infections in waves 2 and 3 were younger and more likely to be residing in small cities and rural areas than were patients in wave 1; they also had a higher risk for death, after adjustment for age and underlying medical conditions. Risk for death among hospitalized patients during waves 2 and 3 was lower in Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces than in eastern and southern provinces. The variation in risk for death among hospitalized case-patients in different areas across 3 epidemic waves might be associated with differences in case ascertainment, changes in clinical management, or virus genetic diversity.