Marginal Time-Dependent Causal Effects in Mediation Analysis With Survival Data.

The main aim of mediation analysis is to study the direct and indirect effects of an exposure on an outcome. To date, the literature on mediation analysis with multiple mediators has mainly focused on continuous and dichotomous outcomes. However, the development of methods for multiple mediation analysis of survival outcomes is still limited. Here we extend to survival outcomes a method for multiple mediation analysis based on the computation of appropriate weights. The approach considered has the advantages of not requiring specific models for mediators, allowing nonindependent mediators of any nature, and not relying on the assumption of rare outcomes. Simulation studies show good performance of the proposed estimator in terms of bias and coverage probability. The method is further applied to an example from a published study on prostate cancer mortality aimed at understanding the extent to which the effect of DNA methyltransferase 3b (DNMT3b) genotype on mortality was explained by DNA methylation and tumor aggressiveness. This approach can be used to quantify the marginal time-dependent direct and indirect effects carried by multiple indirect pathways, and software code is provided to facilitate its application.

Association between physical activity and risk of hepatobiliary cancers: A multinational cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To date, evidence on the association between physical activity and risk of hepatobiliary cancers has been inconclusive. We examined this association in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort (EPIC). METHODS: We identified 275 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, 93 intrahepatic bile duct cancers (IHBCs), and 164 non-gallbladder extrahepatic bile duct cancers (NGBCs) among 467,336 EPIC participants (median follow-up 14.9 years). We estimated cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for total physical activity and vigorous physical activity and performed mediation analysis and secondary analyses to assess robustness to confounding (e.g. due to hepatitis virus infection). RESULTS: In the EPIC cohort, the multivariable-adjusted HR of HCC was 0.55 (95% CI 0.38-0.80) comparing active and inactive individuals. Regarding vigorous physical activity, for those reporting >2 hours/week compared to those with no vigorous activity, the HR for HCC was 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.76). Estimates were similar in sensitivity analyses for confounding. Total and vigorous physical activity were unrelated to IHBC and NGBC. In mediation analysis, waist circumference explained about 40% and body mass index 30% of the overall association of total physical activity and HCC. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest an inverse association between physical activity and risk of HCC, which is potentially mediated by obesity. LAY SUMMARY: In a pan-European study of 467,336 men and women, we found that physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of developing liver cancers over the next decade. This risk was independent of other liver cancer risk factors, and did not vary by age, gender, smoking status, body weight, and alcohol consumption.

Heterogeneity of Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors by Anatomical Subsite in 10 European Countries: A Multinational Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colorectal cancer located at different anatomical subsites may have distinct etiologies and risk factors. Previous studies that have examined this hypothesis have yielded inconsistent results, possibly because most studies have been of insufficient size to identify heterogeneous associations with precision. METHODS: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study, we used multivariable joint Cox proportional hazards models, which accounted for tumors at different anatomical sites (proximal colon, distal colon, and rectum) as competing risks, to examine the relationships between 14 established/suspected lifestyle, anthropometric, and reproductive/menstrual risk factors with colorectal cancer risk. Heterogeneity across sites was tested using Wald tests. RESULTS: After a median of 14.9 years of follow-up of 521,330 men and women, 6291 colorectal cancer cases occurred. Physical activity was related inversely to proximal colon and distal colon cancer, but not to rectal cancer (P heterogeneity = .03). Height was associated positively with proximal and distal colon cancer only, but not rectal cancer (P heterogeneity = .0001). For men, but not women, heterogeneous relationships were observed for body mass index (P heterogeneity = .008) and waist circumference (P heterogeneity = .03), with weaker positive associations found for rectal cancer, compared with proximal and distal colon cancer. Current smoking was associated with a greater risk of rectal and proximal colon cancer, but not distal colon cancer (P heterogeneity = .05). No heterogeneity by anatomical site was found for alcohol consumption, diabetes, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, and reproductive/menstrual factors. CONCLUSIONS: The relationships between physical activity, anthropometry, and smoking with colorectal cancer risk differed by subsite, supporting the hypothesis that tumors in different anatomical regions may have distinct etiologies.

Differentially methylated DNA regions in early childhood wheezing: An epigenome-wide study using saliva.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetics may play a role in wheezing and asthma development. We aimed to examine infant saliva DNA methylation in association with early childhood wheezing. METHODS: A case-control study was nested within the NINFEA birth cohort with 68 cases matched to 68 controls by sex, age (between 6 and 18 months, median: 10.3 months) and season at saliva sampling. Using a bumphunting region-based approach, we examined associations between saliva methylome measured using Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450k array and wheezing between 6 and 18 months of age. We tested our main findings in independent publicly available data sets of childhood respiratory allergy and atopic asthma, with DNA methylation measured in different tissues and at different ages. RESULTS: We identified one wheezing-associated differentially methylated region (DMR) spanning ten sequential CpG sites in the promoter-regulatory region of PM20D1 gene (family-wise error rate < 0.05). The observed associations were enhanced in children born to atopic mothers. In the publicly available data sets, hypermethylation in the same region of PM20D1 was consistently found at different ages and in all analysed tissues (cord blood, blood, saliva and nasal epithelia) of children with respiratory allergy/atopic asthma compared with controls. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that PM20D1 hypermethylation is associated with early childhood wheezing. Directionally consistent epigenetic alteration observed in cord blood and other tissues at older ages in children with respiratory allergy and atopic asthma provides suggestive evidence that a long-term epigenetic modification, likely operating from birth, may be involved in childhood atopic phenotypes.

Coffee and tea drinking in relation to the risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

PURPOSE: Coffee and tea constituents have shown several anti-carcinogenic activities in cellular and animal studies, including against thyroid cancer (TC). However, epidemiological evidence is still limited and inconsistent. Therefore, we aimed to investigate this association in a large prospective study. METHODS: The study was conducted in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) cohort, which included 476,108 adult men and women. Coffee and tea intakes were assessed through validated country-specific dietary questionnaires. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 14 years, 748 first incident differentiated TC cases (including 601 papillary and 109 follicular TC) were identified. Coffee consumption (per 100 mL/day) was not associated either with total differentiated TC risk (HRcalibrated 1.00, 95% CI 0.97-1.04) or with the risk of TC subtypes. Tea consumption (per 100 mL/day) was not associated with the risk of total differentiated TC (HRcalibrated 0.98, 95% CI 0.95-1.02) and papillary tumor (HRcalibrated 0.99, 95% CI 0.95-1.03), whereas an inverse association was found with follicular tumor risk (HRcalibrated 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-0.99), but this association was based on a sub-analysis with a small number of cancer cases. CONCLUSIONS: In this large prospective study, coffee and tea consumptions were not associated with TC risk.

Is the association between precarious employment and mental health mediated by economic difficulties in males? Results from two Italian studies.

BACKGROUND: Flexible employment is increasing across Europe and recent studies show an association with poor mental health. The goal of the current study is to examine this association in the Italian population to assess the possible mediating role of financial strain. METHODS: Data were obtained by two Italian cross-sectional studies (PASSI and HIS) aimed at monitoring the general population health status, health behaviours and determinants. Mental health status was assessed using alternatively two validated questionnaires (the PHQ-2 and the MCS-12 score) and Poisson regression models were performed to assess if precarious work was associated with poor mental health. A formal mediation analysis was conducted to evaluate if the association between precarious work and mental health was mediated by financial strain. RESULTS: The analyses were performed on 31,948 subjects in PASSI and on 21,894 subjects in HIS. A nearly two-fold risk of depression and poor mental health was found among precarious workers, compared to workers with a permanent contract, which was strongly mediated by financial strain. CONCLUSIONS: Even with the limitations of a cross-sectional design, this research supports that precarious employment contributes through financial strain to reduce the mental health related quality of life and to increase mental disorders such as symptoms of depression or dysthymia. This suggests that when stability in work cannot be guaranteed, it would be appropriate to intervene on the wages of precarious jobs and to provide social safety nets for ensuring adequate income.

New insights on occupational exposure and bladder cancer risk: a pooled analysis of two Italian case-control studies.

PURPOSE: The main risk factor for bladder cancer (BC) is cigarette smoking, but also occupational exposure to carcinogens is relevant, causing about 4-10% of BC. We aimed at investigating the association between BC risk, occupations held in the past and exposure to occupational carcinogens, also assessing whether these associations were influenced by tumour grade. METHODS: We pooled data from two Italian case-control studies on male BC, analyzing 893 cases and 978 controls. Occupations were classified using the International Standard Classification of Occupations and exposure to carcinogens was assigned using a validated Job Exposure Matrix. Logistic regression approach was used as well as a semi-Bayesian model, based on a priori information on exposure. RESULTS: A significantly increased BC risk was found for chemical engineering technicians, postmen, and lathe operators, but only, for the latter, the association remained significant after Bayesian control for type I error. Among carcinogens, cadmium and trichloroethylene were associated with BC. When analyzing data by grade, exposure to these carcinogens was associated with low-grade BC only. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that monitoring workplaces to prevent exposure to carcinogenic agents is still an important task, which should be still given adequate importance in public health.

Methylation in host and viral genes as marker of aggressiveness in cervical lesions: Analysis in 543 unscreened women.

OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to evaluate the association between altered methylation and histologically confirmed high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (hgCIN). METHODS: Methylation levels in selected host (CADM1, MAL, DAPK1) and HPV (L1_I, L1_II, L2) genes were measured by pyrosequencing in DNA samples obtained from 543 women recruited in Curitiba (Brazil), 249 with hgCIN and 294 without cervical lesions. Association of methylation status with hgCIN was estimated by Odds Ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: The mean methylation level increased with severity of the lesion in the host and viral genes (p-trend < 0.05), with the exception of L1_II region (p-trend = 0.075). Positive association was found between methylation levels for host genes and CIN2 and CIN3 lesions respectively [CADM1: OR 4.17 (95%CI 2.03-8.56) and OR 9.54 (95%CI 4.80-18.97); MAL: OR 5.98 (95%CI 2.26-15.78) and OR 22.66 (95%CI 9.21-55.76); DAPK1: OR 3.37 (95%CI 0.93-12.13) and OR 6.74 (95%CI 1.92-23.64)]. Stronger risk estimates were found for viral genes [L1_I: OR 10.74 (95%CI 2.66-43.31) and OR 15.00 (95%CI 3.00-74.98); L1_II: OR 73.18 (95%CI 4.07-1315.94) and OR 32.50 (95%CI 3.86-273.65); L2: OR 4.73 (95%CI 1.55-14.44) and OR 10.62 (95%CI 2.60-43.39)]. The cumulative effect of the increasing number of host and viral methylated genes was associated with the risk of CIN2 and CIN3 lesions (p-trend < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our results, empowered by a wide cervical sample series with a large number of hgCIN, supported the role of methylation as marker of aggressiveness.

Abdominal adiposity is not a mediator of the protective effect of Mediterranean diet on colorectal cancer.

Adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MD) has a preventive effect on colorectal cancer (CRC). Several biological mechanisms have been hypothesized to explain this effect, but the involvement of clinical mediators has not been experimentally proven. We examined the role of abdominal adiposity (i.e., waist-to-hip ratio, WHR) as a potential mediator of the relationship between the MD and CRC in the Italian centres of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. We evaluated the effect of the Italian Mediterranean Index (IMI) on WHR and of WHR on CRC risk. We then estimated the natural indirect effect (NIE, mediated by WHR) and the pure direct effect (PDE, unmediated) of IMI on CRC risk using mediation analyses, considering age, sex, education, physical activity, smoking and EPIC centre as confounders. Increased IMI was associated with significantly decreased odds of high WHR (odds ratio [OR] for an IMI of 6-11 vs. 0-1: 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81-0.97). There was a positive relationship between WHR and CRC (hazard ratio [HR] for high vs. low WHR: 1.34, 95%CI: 1.09-1.66). The total effect of IMI was protective on CRC risk and was mainly explained by the PDE (HR for an IMI of 6-11 vs. 0-1: 0.51, 95%CI: 0.31-0.83), whereas the NIE was 1.00 (95%CI: 0.94-1.10). In this Mediterranean cohort, the protective effect of the MD on the development of CRC was not mediated by abdominal adiposity. Since this is the first study to investigate the mediating effect of abdominal obesity, other studies are needed to replicate this result.

DNA methylation changes measured in pre-diagnostic peripheral blood samples are associated with smoking and lung cancer risk.

DNA methylation changes are associated with cigarette smoking. We used the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 array to determine whether methylation in DNA from pre-diagnostic, peripheral blood samples is associated with lung cancer risk. We used a case-control study nested within the EPIC-Italy cohort and a study within the MCCS cohort as discovery sets (a total of 552 case-control pairs). We validated the top signals in 429 case-control pairs from another 3 studies. We identified six CpGs for which hypomethylation was associated with lung cancer risk: cg05575921 in the AHRR gene (p-valuepooled = 4 × 10-17 ), cg03636183 in the F2RL3 gene (p-valuepooled = 2 × 10 - 13 ), cg21566642 and cg05951221 in 2q37.1 (p-valuepooled = 7 × 10-16 and 1 × 10-11 respectively), cg06126421 in 6p21.33 (p-valuepooled = 2 × 10-15 ) and cg23387569 in 12q14.1 (p-valuepooled = 5 × 10-7 ). For cg05951221 and cg23387569 the strength of association was virtually identical in never and current smokers. For all these CpGs except for cg23387569, the methylation levels were different across smoking categories in controls (p-valuesheterogeneity ≤ 1.8 x10 - 7 ), were lowest for current smokers and increased with time since quitting for former smokers. We observed a gain in discrimination between cases and controls measured by the area under the ROC curve of at least 8% (p-values ≥ 0.003) in former smokers by adding methylation at the 6 CpGs into risk prediction models including smoking status and number of pack-years. Our findings provide convincing evidence that smoking and possibly other factors lead to DNA methylation changes measurable in peripheral blood that may improve prediction of lung cancer risk.

Hepcidin levels and gastric cancer risk in the EPIC-EurGast study.

Hepcidin is the main regulator of iron homeostasis and dysregulation of proteins involved in iron metabolism has been associated with tumorogenesis. However, to date, no epidemiological study has researched the association between hepcidin levels and gastric cancer risk. To further investigate the relationship between hepcidin levels and gastric cancer risk, we conducted a nested case-control study (EURGAST) within the multicentric European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. The study included 456 primary incident gastric adenocarcinoma cases and 900 matched controls that occurred during an average of 11 years of follow-up. We measured serum levels of hepcidin-25, iron, ferritin, transferrin and C-reactive protein. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of gastric cancer by hepcidin levels were estimated from multivariable conditional logistic regression models. Mediation effect of the ferritin levels on the hepcidin-gastric cancer pathway was also evaluated. After adjusting for relevant confounders, we observed a statistically significant inverse association between gastric cancer and hepcidin levels (OR 5 ng/l = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.93-0.99). No differences were found by tumor localization or histological type. In mediation analysis, we found that the direct effect of hepcidin only represents a nonsignificant 38% (95% CI: -69%, 91%). In summary, these data suggest that the inverse association of hepcidin levels and gastric cancer risk was mostly accounted by ferritin levels. Further investigation including repeated measures of hepcidin is needed to clarify their role in gastric carcinogenesis.

Dietary flavonoid intake and colorectal cancer risk in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

Flavonoids have been shown to inhibit colon cancer cell proliferation in vitro and protect against colorectal carcinogenesis in animal models. However, epidemiological evidence on the potential role of flavonoid intake in colorectal cancer (CRC) development remains sparse and inconsistent. We evaluated the association between dietary intakes of total flavonoids and their subclasses and risk of development of CRC, within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. A cohort of 477,312 adult men and women were recruited in 10 European countries. At baseline, dietary intakes of total flavonoids and individual subclasses were estimated using centre-specific validated dietary questionnaires and composition data from the Phenol-Explorer database. During an average of 11 years of follow-up, 4,517 new cases of primary CRC were identified, of which 2,869 were colon (proximal = 1,298 and distal = 1,266) and 1,648 rectal tumours. No association was found between total flavonoid intake and the risk of overall CRC (HR for comparison of extreme quintiles 1.05, 95% CI 0.93-1.18; p-trend = 0.58) or any CRC subtype. No association was also observed with any intake of individual flavonoid subclasses. Similar results were observed for flavonoid intake expressed as glycosides or aglycone equivalents. Intake of total flavonoids and flavonoid subclasses, as estimated from dietary questionnaires, did not show any association with risk of CRC development.

Diet and endometrial cancer: a focus on the role of fruit and vegetable intake, Mediterranean diet and dietary inflammatory index in the endometrial cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Endometrial cancer is the fourth most common cancer in European women. The major risk factors for endometrial cancer are related to the exposure of endometrium to estrogens not opposed to progestogens, that can lead to a chronic endometrial inflammation. Diet may play a role in cancer risk by modulating chronic inflammation. METHODS: In the framework of a case-control study, we recruited 297 women with newly diagnosed endometrial cancer and 307 controls from Northern Italy. Using logistic regression, we investigated the role of fruit and vegetable intake, adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MD), and the dietary inflammatory index (DII) in endometrial cancer risk. RESULTS: Women in the highest quintile of vegetable intake had a statistically significantly lower endometrial cancer risk (adjusted OR 5th quintile vs 1st quintile: 0.34, 95% CI 0.17-0.68). Women with high adherence to the MD had a risk of endometrial cancer that was about half that of women with low adherence to the MD (adjusted OR: 0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.86). A protective effect was detected for all the lower quintiles of DII, with the highest protective effect seen for the lowest quintile (adjusted OR 5th quintile vs 1st quintile: 3.28, 95% CI 1.30-8.26). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that high vegetable intake, adherence to the MD, and a low DII are related to a lower endometrial cancer risk, with several putative connected biological mechanisms that strengthen the biological plausibility of this association.

Risk of second primary malignancies in women with breast cancer: Results from the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC).

Women with a diagnosis of breast cancer are at increased risk of second primary cancers, and the identification of risk factors for the latter may have clinical implications. We have followed-up for 11 years 10,045 women with invasive breast cancer from a European cohort, and identified 492 second primary cancers, including 140 contralateral breast cancers. Expected and observed cases and Standardized Incidence Ratios (SIR) were estimated using Aalen-Johansen Markovian methods. Information on various risk factors was obtained from detailed questionnaires and anthropometric measurements. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the role of risk factors. Women with breast cancer had a 30% excess risk for second malignancies (95% confidence interval-CI 18-42) after excluding contralateral breast cancers. Risk was particularly elevated for colorectal cancer (SIR, 1.71, 95% CI 1.43-2.00), lymphoma (SIR 1.80, 95% CI 1.31-2.40), melanoma (2.12; 1.63-2.70), endometrium (2.18; 1.75-2.70) and kidney cancers (2.40; 1.57-3.52). Risk of second malignancies was positively associated with age at first cancer, body mass index and smoking status, while it was inversely associated with education, post-menopausal status and a history of full-term pregnancy. We describe in a large cohort of women with breast cancer a 30% excess of second primaries. Among risk factors for breast cancer, a history of full-term pregnancy was inversely associated with the risk of second primary cancer.

[Alcohol consumption and epithelial cancer risk in the EPIC-Italy cohort]. / Consumo di bevande alcoliche e rischio di tumori epiteliali nella coorte EPIC-Italia.

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the association between baseline and lifetime alcohol consumption and the risk of epithelial cancer (all types) in the Italian cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study. DESIGN: prospective study carried out in a large Italian population. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: detailed information on the consumption of alcoholic beverages at baseline and over lifetime collected at enrolment into the EPIC study (1993-1998) by standardised questionnaires for 44,477 healthy adults. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: 2,640 incident epithelial cancers identified during a mean follow-up of 11.4 years. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for several potential confounders were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: lifetime alcohol consumption (p for trend =0.005) was associated with epithelial cancer risk in the whole cohort. This effect was more evident in women (p =0.049) and in current smokers (p =0.012). Alcohol consumption at baseline was associated with the epithelial cancer risk in women (p for trend =0.01) and current smokers (p for trend =0.02). A significant interaction between alcohol consumption and smoke duration (p =0.015 for baseline; p =0.006 for lifetime) was identified. CONCLUSIONS: in this large Italian population, alcohol consumption, particularly lifetime, is a significant risk factor for the development of epithelial cancers. This effect appears to be modulated by smoking habits.

[Dietary habits and cardiovascular disease: the experience of EPIC Italian collaboration]. / Abitudini alimentari e malattie cardiovascolari: l'esperienza della collaborazione EPIC-Italia.

OBJECTIVES: to report and evaluate the evidence produced by the EPIC Italian collaboration (EPICOR Project) on the dietary determinants of cardiovascular diseases in Italy. DESIGN: prospective study carried out in a large Italian population, composed by cohorts recruited in Northern, Central and Southern Italy. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: data on dietary habits collected at the baseline observation through standardised questionnaires on 47,749 free-living adults at the time of the recruitment of the study (1993-1998). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: major coronary and cerebrovascular events (acute coronary syndrome, PTCA, CABG, ischemic and haemorrhagic stroke, TEA of supraortic vessels) identified at follow-up. The longitudinal analyses here reported have measured risks through the use of multivariate Cox regression models, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: the longitudinal analyses of EPICOR indicate that Mediterranean-oriented dietary habits, measured through specific indicators and the consumption of various typical food, are able to reduce coronary and cerebrovascular risks, and that this protection is possible even nowadays, although many changes in diet have occurred in the last decades in Italy. Habitual consumption of plant origin products, including all foods with low glycemic index, is an advantage for cardiovascular risk. CONCLUSIONS: the EPICOR Project is the largest, long-lasting Italian study on the relationship between diet and cardiovascular diseases. It is also the study with the greater number of observed variables. Its results point out the importance to support preventive programmes and industrial policies able to favour a dietary style inspired to the Italian Mediterranean tradition.

Associations of dairy product consumption with mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Italy cohort.

BACKGROUND: The relation of dairy product consumption to health and mortality is controversial. OBJECTIVES: We investigated associations of consumption of various dairy products with mortality in the Italian cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Italy study. METHODS: Dairy product consumption was assessed by validated semiquantitative FFQs. Multivariable Cox models stratified by center, age, and sex and adjusted for confounders estimated associations of milk (total, full fat, and reduced fat), yogurt, cheese, butter, and dairy calcium consumption with mortality for cancer, cardiovascular disease, and all causes. Nonlinearity was tested by restricted cubic spline regression. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 14.9 y, 2468 deaths were identified in 45,009 participants: 59% from cancer and 19% from cardiovascular disease. No significant association of consumption of any dairy product with mortality was found in the fully adjusted models. A 25% reduction in risk of all-cause mortality was found for milk intake from 160 to 120 g/d (HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.91) but not for the highest (>200 g/d) category of intake (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.84, 1.08) compared with nonconsumption. Associations of full-fat and reduced-fat milk consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality were similar to those for milk as a whole. CONCLUSIONS: In this Italian cohort characterized by low to average milk consumption, we found no evidence of a dose-response association between milk consumption and mortality and also no association of consumption of other dairy products investigated with mortality.

DNA methylation, colon cancer and Mediterranean diet: results from the EPIC-Italy cohort.

The biological mechanisms through which adherence to Mediterranean Diet (MD) protects against colon cancer (CC) are poorly understood. Evidence suggests that chronic inflammation may be implicated in the pathway. Both diet and CC are related to epigenetic regulation. We performed a nested case-control study on 161 pairs from the Italian component of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, in which we looked for the methylation signals in DNA extracted from leucocytes associated with both CC and MD in 995 CpGs located in 48 inflammation genes. The DNA methylation signals detected in this analysis were validated in a subgroup of 47 case-control pairs and further replicated (where validated) in 95 new pairs by means of pyrosequencing. Among the CpG sites selected a-priori in inflammation-related genes, seven CpG sites were found to be associated with CC status and with MD, in line with its protective effect. Only two CpG sites (cg17968347-SERPINE1 and cg20674490-RUNX3) were validated using bisulphite pyrosequencing and, after replication, we found that DNA methylation of cg20674490-RUNX3 may be a potential molecular mediator explaining the protective effect of MD on CC onset. The use of a 'meet-in-the-middle' approach to identify the overlap between exposure and predictive markers of disease is innovative in studies on the relationship between diet and cancer, in which exposure assessment is difficult and the mechanisms through which the nutrients exert their protective effect is largely unknown.

Epigenome-wide association study for lifetime estrogen exposure identifies an epigenetic signature associated with breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: It is well established that estrogens and other hormonal factors influence breast cancer susceptibility. We hypothesized that a woman's total lifetime estrogen exposure accumulates changes in DNA methylation, detectable in the blood, which could be used in risk assessment for breast cancer. METHODS: An estimated lifetime estrogen exposure (ELEE) model was defined using epidemiological data from EPIC-Italy (n = 31,864). An epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) of ELEE was performed using existing Illumina HumanMethylation450K Beadchip (HM450K) methylation data obtained from EPIC-Italy blood DNA samples (n = 216). A methylation index (MI) of ELEE based on 31 CpG sites was developed using HM450K data from EPIC-Italy and the Generations Study and evaluated for association with breast cancer risk in an independent dataset from the Generations Study (n = 440 incident breast cancer cases matched to 440 healthy controls) using targeted bisulfite sequencing. Lastly, a meta-analysis was conducted including three additional cohorts, consisting of 1187 case-control pairs. RESULTS: We observed an estimated 5% increase in breast cancer risk per 1-year longer ELEE (OR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.07, P = 3 × 10-12) in EPIC-Italy. The EWAS identified 694 CpG sites associated with ELEE (FDR Q < 0.05). We report a DNA methylation index (MI) associated with breast cancer risk that is validated in the Generations Study targeted bisulfite sequencing data (ORQ4_vs_Q1 = 1.77, 95% CI 1.07-2.93, P = 0.027) and in the meta-analysis (ORQ4_vs_Q1 = 1.43, 95% CI 1.05-2.00, P = 0.024); however, the correlation between the MI and ELEE was not validated across study cohorts. CONCLUSION: We have identified a blood DNA methylation signature associated with breast cancer risk in this study. Further investigation is required to confirm the interaction between estrogen exposure and DNA methylation in the blood.

Increased correlation between methylation sites in epigenome-wide replication studies: impact on analysis and results.

AIM: To show that an increased correlation between CpGs after selection through an epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) might translate into biased replication results. METHODS: Pairwise correlation coefficients between CpGs selected in two published EWAS, the top hits replication, Bonferroni p-values, Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) false discovery rate (FDR) and directional FDR r-values were calculated in the NINFEA cohort data. Exposures' random permutations were performed to show the empirical p-value distributions. RESULTS: The average pairwise correlation coefficients between CpGs were enhanced after selection for the replication (e.g., from 0.12 at genome-wide level to 0.26 among the selected CpGs), affecting the empirical p-value distributions and the usual multiple testing control. CONCLUSION: Bonferroni and Benjamini-Hochberg FDR are inappropriate for the EWAS replication phase, and methods that account for the underlying correlation need to be used.