Primary and secondary care service use and costs associated with frailty in an ageing population: longitudinal analysis of an English primary care cohort of adults aged 50 and over, 2006-2017.

BACKGROUND: Frailty becomes more prevalent and healthcare needs increase with age. Information on the impact of frailty on population level use of health services and associated costs is needed to plan for ageing populations. AIM: To describe primary and secondary care service use and associated costs by electronic Frailty Index (eFI) category. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort using electronic health records. Participants aged ≥50 registered in primary care practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, 2006-2017. METHODS: Primary and secondary care use (totals and means) were stratified by eFI category and age group. Standardised 2017 costs were used to calculate primary, secondary and overall costs. Generalised linear models explored associations between frailty, sociodemographic characteristics. Adjusted mean costs and cost ratios were produced. RESULTS: Individual mean annual use of primary and secondary care services increased with increasing frailty severity. Overall cohort care costs for were highest in mild frailty in all 12 years, followed by moderate and severe, although the proportion of the population with severe frailty can be expected to increase over time. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, compared to the fit category, individual annual costs doubled in mild frailty, tripled in moderate and quadrupled in severe. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing levels of frailty are associated with an additional burden of individual service use. However, individuals with mild and moderate frailty contribute to higher overall costs. Earlier intervention may have the most potential to reduce service use and costs at population level.

Frailty transitions and prevalence in an ageing population: longitudinal analysis of primary care data from an open cohort of adults aged 50 and over in England, 2006-2017.

INTRODUCTION: frailty is common in older adults and is associated with increased health and social care use. Longitudinal information is needed on population-level incidence, prevalence and frailty progression to plan services to meet future population needs. METHODS: retrospective open cohort study using electronic health records of adults aged ≥50 from primary care in England, 2006-2017. Frailty was calculated annually using the electronic Frailty Index (eFI). Multistate models estimated transition rates between each frailty category, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. Prevalence overall for each eFI category (fit, mild, moderate and severe) was calculated. RESULTS: the cohort included 2,171,497 patients and 15,514,734 person-years. Frailty prevalence increased from 26.5 (2006) to 38.9% (2017). The average age of frailty onset was 69; however, 10.8% of people aged 50-64 were already frail in 2006. Estimated transitions from fit to any level of frailty were 48/1,000 person-years aged 50-64, 130/1,000 person-years aged 65-74, 214/1,000 person-years aged 75-84 and 380/1,000 person-years aged ≥ 85. Transitions were independently associated with older age, higher deprivation, female sex, Asian ethnicity and urban dwelling. Mean time spent in each frailty category decreased with age, with the longest period spent in severe frailty at all ages. CONCLUSIONS: frailty is prevalent in adults aged ≥50 and time spent in successive frailty states is longer as frailty progresses, resulting in extended healthcare burden. Larger population numbers and fewer transitions in adults aged 50-64 present an opportunity for earlier identification and intervention. A large increase in frailty over 12 years highlights the urgency of informed service planning in ageing populations.

Randomized controlled trial of EndoRings assisted colonoscopy versus standard colonoscopy.

OBJECTIVES: The EndoRings device is a distal attachment consisting of two layers of circular flexible rings that evert mucosal folds. The aim of this study was to investigate whether EndoRing assisted colonoscopy (ER) improves polyp and adenoma detection compared to standard colonoscopy (SC). METHODS: Multicenter, parallel group, randomized controlled trial. RESULTS: Total of 556 patients randomized to ER (n = 275) or SC (n = 281). Colonoscopy completed in 532/556 (96%) cases. EndoRings removed in 74/275 (27%) patients. Total number of polyps in ER limb 582 vs. 515 in SC limb, P = 0.04. Total number of adenomas in ER limb 361 vs. 343 for SC limb, P = 0.49. A statistically significant difference in the mean number of polyps per patient in both the intention to treat (1.84 SC vs. 2.10 ER, P = 0.027) and per protocol (PP) (1.84 SC vs. 2.25 ER, P = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows promise for the EndoRings device to improve polyp detection.

The dynamics of frailty development and progression in older adults in primary care in England (2006-2017): a retrospective cohort profile.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a common condition in older adults and has a major impact on patient outcomes and service use. Information on the prevalence in middle-aged adults and the patterns of progression of frailty at an individual and population level is scarce. To address this, a cohort was defined from a large primary care database in England to describe the epidemiology of frailty and understand the dynamics of frailty within individuals and across the population. This article describes the structure of the dataset, cohort characteristics and planned analyses. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health records. Participants were aged ≥50 years registered in practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre between 2006 to 2017. Data include GP practice details, patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, twice-yearly electronic Frailty Index (eFI), deaths, medication use and primary and secondary care health service use. Participants in each cohort year by age group, GP and patient characteristics at cohort entry are described. RESULTS: The cohort includes 2,177,656 patients, contributing 15,552,946 person-years, registered at 419 primary care practices in England. The mean age was 61 years, 52.1% of the cohort was female, and 77.6% lived in urban environments. Frailty increased with age, affecting 10% of adults aged 50-64 and 43.7% of adults aged ≥65. The prevalence of long-term conditions and specific frailty deficits increased with age, as did the eFI and the severity of frailty categories. CONCLUSION: A comprehensive understanding of frailty dynamics will inform predictions of current and future care needs to facilitate timely planning of appropriate interventions, service configurations and workforce requirements. Analysis of this large, nationally representative cohort including participants aged ≥50 will capture earlier transitions to frailty and enable a detailed understanding of progression and impact. These results will inform novel simulation models which predict future health and service needs of older people living with frailty. STUDY REGISTRATION: Registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov October 25th 2019, NCT04139278 .

Multicentre randomised controlled trial on virtual chromoendoscopy in the detection of neoplasia during colitis surveillance high-definition colonoscopy (the VIRTUOSO trial).

BACKGROUND: Longstanding colonic IBD increases the risk of developing colorectal cancer. The utility of chromoendoscopy with standard-definition white light technology has been established. However, the use of high-definition virtual chromoendoscopy (HDV) in colitis surveillance remains undefined. OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of HDV (i-scan OE mode 2) with high-definition white light (HDWL) for detection of neoplasia in patients with IBD undergoing surveillance colonoscopy. Additionally, we assessed the utility of protocol-guided quadrantic non-targeted biopsies. DESIGN: A multioperator randomised controlled trial was carried out in two centres in the UK. Total of 188 patients (101 men, mean age 54) with longstanding ulcerative or Crohn's colitis were randomised, prior to starting the surveillance colonoscopy, to using either HDV (n=94) or HDWL (n=94) on withdrawal. Targeted and quadrantic non-targeted biopsies were taken in both arms per-randomisation protocol. The primary outcome was the difference in neoplasia detection rate (NDR) between HDV and HDWL. RESULTS: There was no significant difference between HDWL and HDV for neoplasia detection. The NDR was not significantly different for HDWL (24.2%) and HDV (14.9%) (p=0.14). All intraepithelial neoplasia (IEN) detected contained low-grade dysplasia only. A total of 6751 non-targeted biopsies detected one IEN only. The withdrawal time was similar in both arms of the study; median of 24 min (HDWL) versus 25.5 min (HDV). CONCLUSION: HDV and HDWL did not differ significantly in the detection of neoplasia. Almost all neoplasia were detected on targeted biopsy or resection. Quadrantic non-targeted biopsies have negligible additional gain. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Clinical Trial.gov ID NCT02822352.

A novel self-assembling peptide for hemostasis during endoscopic submucosal dissection: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is associated with a risk of bleeding. Bleeding is usually treated with diathermy, although this does carry a risk of mucosal thermal injury. Purastat is a topical hemostat that may be effective in controlling bleeding during ESD, thereby reducing the use of heat therapy. The aim of this study was to assess the reduction in heat therapy used in the interventional group (Purastat) compared with the control group. The secondary aims were to compare the procedure length, time for hemostasis, delayed bleeding rate, adverse events, and wound healing between the groups. METHODS: This was a single-center randomized controlled trial of 101 patients undergoing ESD. Participants were randomized to a control group where diathermy was used to control bleeding or an interventional group where Purastat could be used. Follow-up endoscopy was performed at 4 weeks to assess wound healing. RESULTS: There was a significant reduction in the use of heat therapy for intraprocedural hemostasis in the interventional group compared with controls (49.3 % vs. 99.6 %, P < 0.001). There were no significant differences in the procedure length, time for hemostasis, and delayed bleeding rate between the groups. Complete wound healing at 4 weeks was noted in 48.8 % of patients in the interventional group compared with 25.0 % of controls (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: This study has demonstrated that Purastat is an effective hemostat that can reduce the need for heat therapy for bleeding during ESD. It may also have a role in improving post-resection wound healing.

The association between ward staffing levels, mortality and hospital readmission in older hospitalised adults, according to presence of cognitive impairment: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Lower nurse staffing levels are associated with increased hospital mortality. Older patients with cognitive impairments (CI) have higher mortality rates than similar patients without CI and may be additionally vulnerable to low staffing. OBJECTIVES: To explore associations between registered nurse (RN) and nursing assistant (NA) staffing levels, mortality and readmission in older patients admitted to general medical/surgical wards. RESEARCH DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. PARTICIPANTS: All unscheduled admissions to an English hospital of people aged ≥75 with cognitive screening over 14 months. MEASURES: The exposure was defined as deviation in staffing hours from the ward daily mean, averaged across the patient stay. Outcomes were mortality in hospital/within 30 days of discharge and 30-day re-admission. Analyses were stratified by CI. RESULTS: 12,544 admissions were included. Patients with CI (33.2%) were exposed to similar levels of staffing as those without. An additional 0.5 RN hours per day was associated with 10% reduction in the odds of death overall (odds ratio 0.90 [95% CI 0.84-0.97]): 15% in patients with CI (OR 0.85 [0.74-0.98]) and 7% in patients without (OR 0.93 [0.85-1.02]). An additional 0.5 NA hours per day was associated with a 15% increase in mortality in patients with no impairment. Readmissions decreased by 6% for an additional 0.5 RN hours in patients with CI. CONCLUSIONS: Although exposure to low staffing was similar, the impact on mortality and readmission for patients with CI was greater. Increased mortality with higher NA staffing in patients without CI needs exploration.

A feasibility trial of Acetic acid-targeted Biopsies versus nontargeted quadrantic biopsies during BArrett's surveillance: the ABBA trial.

BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were to compare neoplasia detection rates for nontargeted biopsies (Seattle protocol) versus acetic acid-targeted biopsies (Portsmouth protocol) during Barrett's surveillance and to explore feasibility, patient/clinician experience, acceptance, and barriers/enablers to study participation and implementation of the acetic acid technique. METHODS: This was a mixed-methods feasibility study including a pilot multicenter, randomized, crossover trial with qualitative interviews. Patients under Barrett's surveillance with no history of neoplasia were included. Patients underwent two endoscopies, one with each protocol, 8 weeks apart. Outcomes included recruitment and retention rates, neoplasia yield, and number of biopsies. RESULTS: 200 patients were recruited from 6 centers, and 174 (87.0 %) underwent both procedures. Neoplasia prevalence was 4.7 % (9/192). High grade dysplasia and cancer were detected with both protocols. Five low grade dysplasias were detected (two with acetic acid, four with nontargeted biopsies; one lesion was detected with both techniques). A total of 2139 biopsies were taken in the nontargeted arm and 226 in the acetic acid arm. Both patients and clinicians found the acetic acid technique acceptable. Based on these data, a noninferiority, tandem, crossover trial would require an estimated 2828 patients. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the feasibility of performing a crossover endoscopy trial in Barrett's surveillance. Low neoplasia yield makes this design necessary and qualitative results demonstrated patient and clinician acceptance. The reduced numbers of biopsies suggest that the acetic acid technique could result in cost savings, providing the lack of missed pathology can be proven in a fully powered definitive trial.

Non-invasive techniques for stimulating urine production in non-toilet trained children: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Urinary tract infection requires collection of a sterile urine specimen for diagnosis, which is difficult and time consuming in pre-continent children. This systematic review summarises evidence of the effectiveness of bladder stimulation techniques on urine collection in pre-continent children, compared with standard techniques. METHODS: MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE and CINAHL were searched to May 2019. Selection, data extraction, risk of bias and quality assessment were undertaken by two independent reviewers. Inclusion: (1) all study designs; (2) pre-continent, age <3 years receiving bladder stimulation techniques; (3) outcomes including time to urine collection or contamination rates; (4) English-language articles. Exclusion: coexisting neurological disorders. RESULTS: Three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were identified using three techniques in 568 participants aged 1 day to 35 months. Two RCTs demonstrated an increased success in voiding within 5 min, one using a finger tapping and lumbar paravertebral massage technique and the other cold saline-soaked gauze rubbed over the suprapubic region, compared with no active intervention. A third RCT using a mechanical vibration device demonstrated no difference in time to voiding from advice alone. Non-randomised studies compared different temperatures for the gauze intervention and tapping alone versus urine bags. Six uncontrolled studies tested the finger tapping and massage technique. Risk of bias was low for one RCT and unclear for two RCTs with the other studies rated poor to fair quality. Overall, the evidence on success rates was graded low for tapping plus massage and moderate for the gauze rubbing intervention. Adverse effects included crying and mild distress. DISCUSSION: The results suggest a positive effect of stimulation techniquesbut lack of replication in rigorous RCTs and heterogeneity of techniques and outcomes assessed prevent conclusive recommendations being made. Further RCTs are required comparing non-invasive stimulation methods and assessing time to successful collection, contamination rates, adverse effects, caregiver and clinical staff acceptability.

Early specialist palliative care on quality of life for malignant pleural mesothelioma: a randomised controlled trial.

PURPOSE: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) has a high symptom burden and poor survival. Evidence from other cancer types suggests some benefit in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) with early specialist palliative care (SPC) integrated with oncological services, but the certainty of evidence is low. METHODS: We performed a multicentre, randomised, parallel group controlled trial comparing early referral to SPC versus standard care across 19 hospital sites in the UK and one large site in Western Australia. Participants had newly diagnosed MPM; main carers were additionally recruited. INTERVENTION: review by SPC within 3 weeks of allocation and every 4 weeks throughout the study. HRQoL was assessed at baseline and every 4 weeks with the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30. PRIMARY OUTCOME: change in EORTC C30 Global Health Status 12 weeks after randomisation. RESULTS: Between April 2014 and October 2016, 174 participants were randomised. There was no significant between group difference in HRQoL score at 12 weeks (mean difference 1.8 (95% CI -4.9 to 8.5; p=0.59)). HRQoL did not differ at 24 weeks (mean difference -2.0 (95% CI -8.6 to 4.6; p=0.54)). There was no difference in depression/anxiety scores at 12 weeks or 24 weeks. In carers, there was no difference in HRQoL or mood at 12 weeks or 24 weeks, although there was a consistent preference for care, favouring the intervention arm. CONCLUSION: There is no role for routine referral to SPC soon after diagnosis of MPM for patients who are cared for in centres with good access to SPC when required. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN18955704.

Artemether-lumefantrine dosing for malaria treatment in young children and pregnant women: A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The fixed dose combination of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the most widely used treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Relatively lower cure rates and lumefantrine levels have been reported in young children and in pregnant women during their second and third trimester. The aim of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of lumefantrine and the pharmacokinetic properties of its metabolite, desbutyl-lumefantrine, in order to inform optimal dosing regimens in all patient populations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A search in PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, Google Scholar, conference proceedings, and the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) pharmacology database identified 31 relevant clinical studies published between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2012, with 4,546 patients in whom lumefantrine concentrations were measured. Under the auspices of WWARN, relevant individual concentration-time data, clinical covariates, and outcome data from 4,122 patients were made available and pooled for the meta-analysis. The developed lumefantrine population pharmacokinetic model was used for dose optimisation through in silico simulations. Venous plasma lumefantrine concentrations 7 days after starting standard AL treatment were 24.2% and 13.4% lower in children weighing <15 kg and 15-25 kg, respectively, and 20.2% lower in pregnant women compared with non-pregnant adults. Lumefantrine exposure decreased with increasing pre-treatment parasitaemia, and the dose limitation on absorption of lumefantrine was substantial. Simulations using the lumefantrine pharmacokinetic model suggest that, in young children and pregnant women beyond the first trimester, lengthening the dose regimen (twice daily for 5 days) and, to a lesser extent, intensifying the frequency of dosing (3 times daily for 3 days) would be more efficacious than using higher individual doses in the current standard treatment regimen (twice daily for 3 days). The model was developed using venous plasma data from patients receiving intact tablets with fat, and evaluations of alternative dosing regimens were consequently only representative for venous plasma after administration of intact tablets with fat. The absence of artemether-dihydroartemisinin data limited the prediction of parasite killing rates and recrudescent infections. Thus, the suggested optimised dosing schedule was based on the pharmacokinetic endpoint of lumefantrine plasma exposure at day 7. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that revised AL dosing regimens for young children and pregnant women would improve drug exposure but would require longer or more complex schedules. These dosing regimens should be evaluated in prospective clinical studies to determine whether they would improve cure rates, demonstrate adequate safety, and thereby prolong the useful therapeutic life of this valuable antimalarial treatment.

Hospital outcomes of older people with cognitive impairment: An integrative review.

OBJECTIVES: To summarise existing knowledge of outcomes of older hospital patients with cognitive impairment, including the type and frequency of outcomes reported, and the additional risk experienced by this patient group. METHODS: Integrative literature review. Health care literature databases, reports, and policy documents on key websites were systematically searched. Papers describing the outcomes of older people with cognitive impairment during hospitalisation and at discharge were analysed and summarised using integrative methods. RESULTS: One hundred four articles were included. A range of outcomes were identified, including those occurring during hospitalisation and at discharge. Older people with a dementia diagnosis were at higher risk from death in hospital, nursing home admission, long lengths of stay, as well as intermediate outcomes such as delirium, falls, dehydration, reduction in nutritional status, decline in physical and cognitive function, and new infections in hospital. Fewer studies examined the relationship of all-cause cognitive impairment with outcomes. Patient and carer experiences of hospital admission were often poor. Few studies collected data relating to hospital environment, eg, ward type or staffing levels, and acuity of illness was rarely described. CONCLUSIONS: Older people with cognitive impairment have a higher risk of a variety of negative outcomes in hospital. Prevalent intermediate outcomes suggest that changes in care processes are required to ensure maintenance of fundamental care provision and greater attention to patient safety in this vulnerable group. More research is required to understand the most appropriate ways of doing this and how changes in these care processes are best implemented to improve hospital outcomes.

A fundamental conflict of care: Nurses' accounts of balancing patients' sleep with taking vital sign observations at night.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To explore why adherence to vital sign observations scheduled by an early warning score protocol reduces at night. BACKGROUND: Regular vital sign observations can reduce avoidable deterioration in hospital. early warning score protocols set the frequency of these observations by the severity of a patient's condition. Vital sign observations are taken less frequently at night, even with an early warning score in place, but no literature has explored why. DESIGN: A qualitative interpretative design informed this study. METHODS: Seventeen semi-structured interviews with nursing staff working on wards with varying levels of adherence to scheduled vital sign observations. A thematic analysis approach was used. RESULTS: At night, nursing teams found it difficult to balance the competing care goals of supporting sleep with taking vital sign observations. The night-time frequency of these observations was determined by clinical judgement, ward-level expectations of observation timing and the risk of disturbing other patients. Patients with COPD or dementia could be under-monitored, while patients nearing the end of life could be over-monitored. CONCLUSION: In this study, we found an early warning score algorithm focused on deterioration prevention did not account for long-term management or palliative care trajectories. Nurses were therefore less inclined to wake such patients to take vital sign observations at night. However, the perception of widespread exceptions and lack of evidence regarding optimum frequency risks delegitimising the early warning score approach. This may pose a risk to patient safety, particularly patients with dementia or chronic conditions. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Nurses should document exceptions and discuss these with the wider team. Hospitals should monitor why vital sign observations are missed at night, identify which groups are under-monitored and provide guidance on prioritising competing expectations. early warning score protocols should take account of different care trajectories.

Endocuff-assisted vs. standard colonoscopy in the fecal occult blood test-based UK Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (E-cap study): a randomized trial.

Background and study aims Up to 25 % colorectal adenomas are missed during colonoscopy. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the endocuff could improve polyp detection in an organized bowel cancer screening program (BCSP). Patients and methods This parallel group, single-blinded, randomized controlled trial included patients with positive fecal occult blood test (FOBT) who were attending for BCSP colonoscopy. The primary outcome was the number of polyps per patient. Secondary outcomes included the number of adenomas per patient, adenoma and polyp detection rates, and withdrawal times. Results A total of 534 BCSP patients were randomized to endocuff-assisted or standard colonoscopy. The mean age was 67 years and the male to female ratio was 1.8:1. We detected no significant difference in the number of polyps per patient (standard 1.8, endocuff 1.6; P = 0.44), adenomas per patient (standard 1.4, endocuff 1.3; P = 0.54), polyp detection rate (standard 69.8 %, endocuff 70.3 %; P = 0.93), adenoma detection rate (standard 63.0 %, endocuff 60.9 %; P = 0.85), advanced adenoma detection rate (standard 18.5 %, endocuff 16.9 %; P = 0.81), and cancer detection rate (standard 5.7 %, endocuff 5.3 %; P = 0.85). The mean withdrawal time was significantly shorter among patients in the endocuff group compared with the standard colonoscopy group (16.9 vs. 19.5 minutes; P < 0.005). The endocuff had to be removed in 17/266 patients (6.4 %) because of inability to pass through the sigmoid colon. Conclusions This study did not find improved polyp or adenoma detection with endocuff-assisted colonoscopy in the FOBT-positive BCSP population. A shorter withdrawal time with endocuff may reflect improved views and stability provided by the endocuff.Trial registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02529007).

The relationship between cognitive impairment, mortality and discharge characteristics in a large cohort of older adults with unscheduled admissions to an acute hospital: a retrospective observational study.

Background: older people with dementia admitted to hospital for acute illness have higher mortality and longer hospital stays compared to those without dementia. Cognitive impairment (CI) is common in older people, and they may also be at increased risk of poor outcomes. Methods: retrospective observational study of unscheduled admissions aged ≥75 years. Admission characteristics, mortality rates and discharge outcomes were compared between three groups: (i) known dementia diagnosis (DD), (ii) CI but no diagnosis of dementia and (iii) no CI. Results: of 19,269 admissions (13,652 patients), 19.8% had a DD, 11.6% had CI and 68.6% had neither. Admissions with CI or DD were older and had more females than those with no CI, and were more likely to be admitted through the Emergency Department (88.4% and 90.7%, versus 82.0%) and to medical wards (89.4% and 84.4%, versus 76.8%). Acuity levels at admission were similar between the groups. Patients with CI or DD had more admissions at 'high risk' from malnutrition than patients with no CI (28.0% and 33.7% versus 17.5%), and a higher risk of dying in hospital (11.8% [10.5-13.3] and 10.8% [9.8-11.9] versus (6.6% [6.2-7.0])). Conclusions: the admission characteristics, mortality and length of stay of patients with CI resemble those of patients with diagnosed dementia. Whilst attention has been focussed on the need for additional support for people with dementia, patients with CI, which may include those with undiagnosed dementia or delirium, appear to have equally bad outcomes from hospitalisation.

Baseline data of parasite clearance in patients with falciparum malaria treated with an artemisinin derivative: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum manifests as slow parasite clearance but this measure is also influenced by host immunity, initial parasite biomass and partner drug efficacy. This study collated data from clinical trials of artemisinin derivatives in falciparum malaria with frequent parasite counts to provide reference parasite clearance estimates stratified by location, treatment and time, to examine host factors affecting parasite clearance, and to assess the relationships between parasite clearance and risk of recrudescence during follow-up. METHODS: Data from 24 studies, conducted from 1996 to 2013, with frequent parasite counts were pooled. Parasite clearance half-life (PC1/2) was estimated using the WWARN Parasite Clearance Estimator. Random effects regression models accounting for study and site heterogeneity were used to explore factors affecting PC1/2 and risk of recrudescence within areas with reported delayed parasite clearance (western Cambodia, western Thailand after 2000, southern Vietnam, southern Myanmar) and in all other areas where parasite populations are artemisinin sensitive. RESULTS: PC1/2 was estimated in 6975 patients, 3288 of whom also had treatment outcomes evaluate d during 28-63 days follow-up, with 93 (2.8 %) PCR-confirmed recrudescences. In areas with artemisinin-sensitive parasites, the median PC1/2 following three-day artesunate treatment (4 mg/kg/day) ranged from 1.8 to 3.0 h and the proportion of patients with PC1/2 >5 h from 0 to 10 %. Artesunate doses of 4 mg/kg/day decreased PC1/2 by 8.1 % (95 % CI 3.2-12.6) compared to 2 mg/kg/day, except in populations with delayed parasite clearance. PC1/2 was longer in children and in patients with fever or anaemia at enrolment. Long PC1/2 (HR = 2.91, 95 % CI 1.95-4.34 for twofold increase, p < 0.001) and high initial parasitaemia (HR = 2.23, 95 % CI 1.44-3.45 for tenfold increase, p < 0.001) were associated independently with an increased risk of recrudescence. In western Cambodia, the region with the highest prevalence of artemisinin resistance, there was no evidence for increasing PC1/2 since 2007. CONCLUSIONS: Several factors affect PC1/2. As substantial heterogeneity in parasite clearance exists between locations, early detection of artemisinin resistance requires reference PC1/2 data. Studies with frequent parasite count measurements to characterize PC1/2 should be encouraged. In western Cambodia, where PC1/2 values are longest, there is no evidence for recent emergence of higher levels of artemisinin resistance.

Developing the Accuracy of Vital Sign Measurements Using the Lifelight Software Application in Comparison to Standard of Care Methods: Observational Study Protocol.

BACKGROUND: Vital sign measurements are an integral component of clinical care, but current challenges with the accuracy and timeliness of patient observations can impact appropriate clinical decision making. Advanced technologies using techniques such as photoplethysmography have the potential to automate noncontact physiological monitoring and recording, improving the quality and accessibility of this essential clinical information. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aim to develop the algorithm used in the Lifelight software application and improve the accuracy of its estimated heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, and blood pressure measurements. METHODS: This preliminary study will compare measurements predicted by the Lifelight software with standard of care measurements for an estimated population sample of 2000 inpatients, outpatients, and healthy people attending a large acute hospital. Both training datasets and validation datasets will be analyzed to assess the degree of correspondence between the vital sign measurements predicted by the Lifelight software and the direct physiological measurements taken using standard of care methods. Subgroup analyses will explore how the performance of the algorithm varies with particular patient characteristics, including age, sex, health condition, and medication. RESULTS: Recruitment of participants to this study began in July 2018, and data collection will continue for a planned study period of 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Digital health technology is a rapidly evolving area for health and social care. Following this initial exploratory study to develop and refine the Lifelight software application, subsequent work will evaluate its performance across a range of health characteristics, and extended validation trials will support its pathway to registration as a medical device. Innovations in health technology such as this may provide valuable opportunities for increasing the efficiency and accessibility of vital sign measurements and improve health care services on a large scale across multiple health and care settings. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/14326.

Improving recording and reporting of dementia and frailty via electronic patient record by ambulance staff in a single service (IDEAS).

BACKGROUND: Dementia is common in older adults assessed by ambulance services. However, inconsistent reporting via the patient record may result in this diagnosis being overlooked by healthcare staff further down the care pathway. This can have a deleterious effect on subsequent patient care, increasing morbidity and mortality. We sought to understand how and where ambulance staff would like to record this finding on the electronic patient record (ePR). METHODS: We designed and implemented a survey of ambulance staff in a single service to understand how they identify patients with dementia, how they record dementia on the ePR and how the ePR could be improved to better capture dementia. Scoping questions on frailty were included. The survey was tested using cognitive interviewing. Analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics for closed questions and thematic analysis for open questions as appropriate. RESULTS: 131 surveys were completed; 60% of participants were paramedics and 40% were other grades of front line staff. Participants reported consulting electronic/paper sources, and individuals such as carers involved in the patients' care, to establish whether dementia had been diagnosed. Frailty assessments were prompted by social context, reduced mobility, a fall or diagnosis of dementia. Staff reported documenting dementia in 20 different areas on the ePR and 46% of participants stated a preference for a designated area to record the information. However, 15% indicated it was not necessary to record dementia or that no ePR changes were required. CONCLUSIONS: We have highlighted the variation in ambulance staff practice in recording of dementia. Alterations to the ePR are required to ensure that dementia is recorded consistently and is easily retrievable. Clearer guidance on when to assess frailty may also enhance information provision to care staff in other sectors, resulting in more appropriate clinical and social care.

Reducing ambulance conveyance for older people with and without dementia: evidence of the role of social care from a regional, year-long service evaluation using retrospective routine data.

INTRODUCTION: Older people, especially those with dementia, have a high risk of deterioration following admission to hospital. More than 60% of older people attended by South Central Ambulance Service (SCAS) clinicians are conveyed to hospital, although many conveyances may not have been due to life-threatening conditions. We aimed to understand patterns of conveyance and alternative referral pathways used following ambulance attendance to an older person. METHODS: Service evaluation, using routinely collected, anonymised electronic records. PARTICIPANTS: Electronic records of people aged ≥75 years for whom an ambulance was dispatched between April 2016 and March 2017 within the geographical boundaries of SCAS NHS Foundation Trust, who were alive on arrival of the ambulance. Conveyance rates are described according to patient and emergency-call characteristics. Logistic regression was used to produce adjusted odds ratios for conveyance. Alternative referral pathways used are described. RESULTS: Of 110,781 patients attended, 64% were conveyed to hospital. Factors associated with reduced odds of conveyance included out-of-hours calls (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.82 [0.79-0.85]), living alone with a care package or with family plus care package (aOR 0.66 [0.62-0.69]; aOR 0.58 [0.54-0.62] respectively) and a record of dementia (0.91 [0.87-0.96]). Living in a nursing home was associated with an increased risk of conveyance (aOR 1.25 [1.15-1.36]). Patients with dementia with more income were significantly less likely to be conveyed than those with less income. Alternative referral services were used in 22% of non-conveyed patients, most commonly GP, out-of-hours and falls services. DISCUSSION: People aged ≥75 years have high rates of conveyance, which are influenced by factors such as out-of-hours calls, dementia and receipt of social care. Low use of alternative referral services may reflect limited availability or difficulty in access. A better understanding of how these factors influence ambulance clinician decision-making is integral to improvement of outcomes for older people.

Predicting survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma using routine clinical and laboratory characteristics.

INTRODUCTION: The prognosis of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is poor, with a median survival of 8-12 months. The ability to predict prognosis in MPM would help clinicians to make informed decisions regarding treatment and identify appropriate research opportunities for patients. The aims of this study were to examine associations between clinical and pathological information gathered during routine care, and prognosis of patients with MPM, and to develop a 6-month mortality risk prediction model. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with MPM at Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth, UK between December 2009 and September 2013. Multivariate analysis was performed on routinely available histological, clinical and laboratory data to assess the association between different factors and 6-month survival, with significant associations used to create a model to predict the risk of death within 6 months of diagnosis with MPM. RESULTS: 100 patients were included in the analysis. Variables significantly associated with patient survival in multivariate analysis were age (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.56), smoking status (current smoker HR 3.42, 95% CI 1.11 to 4.20), chest pain (HR 2.14, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.72), weight loss (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.72), platelet count (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.10), urea (HR 2.73, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.69) and adjusted calcium (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.94). The resulting risk model had a c-statistic value of 0.76. A Hosmer-Lemeshow test confirmed good calibration of the model against the original dataset. CONCLUSION: Risk of death at 6 months in patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MPM can be predicted using variables readily available in clinical practice. The risk prediction model we have developed may be used to influence treatment decisions in patients with MPM. Further validation of the model requires evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset.