Bayesian transition models for ordinal longitudinal outcomes.

Ordinal longitudinal outcomes are becoming common in clinical research, particularly in the context of COVID-19 clinical trials. These outcomes are information-rich and can increase the statistical efficiency of a study when analyzed in a principled manner. We present Bayesian ordinal transition models as a flexible modeling framework to analyze ordinal longitudinal outcomes. We develop the theory from first principles and provide an application using data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial (ACTT-1) with code examples in R. We advocate that researchers use ordinal transition models to analyze ordinal longitudinal outcomes when appropriate alongside standard methods such as time-to-event modeling.

Mortality follow-up of Fernald Feed Materials Production Center workers exposed to uranium from 1951 to 1985.

OBJECTIVE: This follow-up study of uranium processing workers at the Fernald Feed Materials Production Center examines the relationship between radiation exposure and cancer and non-cancer mortality among 6403 workers employed for at least 30 days between 1951 and 1985. METHODS: We estimated cumulative, individual, annualised doses to 15 organs/tissues from external, internal and radon exposures. Vital status and cause of death were ascertained in 2017. The analysis employed standardised mortality ratios, Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regression models. Competing risk analysis was conducted for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk given several assumptions about risk independent of competing outcomes. Emphysema was examined to assess the potential for confounding by smoking. RESULTS: Vital status was confirmed for 98.1% of workers, with 65.1% deceased. All-cause mortality was less than expected in salaried but not hourly workers when compared with the US population. A statistically significant dose response was observed between external (but not total or internal) lung dose and lung cancer mortality (HR at 100 mGy adjusted for internal dose=1.45; 95% CI=1.05 to 2.01). Significantly increased HRs at 100 mGy dose to heart were observed for CVD (1.27; 95% CI=1.07 to 1.50) and ischaemic heart disease (1.30; 95% CI=1.07 to 1.58). CVD risk remained elevated regardless of competing risk assumptions. Both external and internal radiation were associated with emphysema. CONCLUSIONS: Lung cancer was associated with external dose, though positive dose responses for emphysema imply residual confounding by smoking. Novel use of competing risk analysis for CVD demonstrates leveraging retrospective data for future risk prediction.

Poor Agreement Between Preoperative Transthoracic Echocardiography and Intraoperative Transesophageal Echocardiography for Grading Diastolic Dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for the evaluation and grading of diastolic dysfunction are available for transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is used for this purpose intraoperatively but the level of agreement between these 2 imaging modalities for grading diastolic dysfunction is unknown. We assessed agreement between awake preoperative TTE and intraoperative TEE for grading diastolic dysfunction. METHODS: In 98 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, key Doppler measurements were obtained using TTE and TEE at the following time points: TTE before anesthesia induction (TTEawake), TTE following anesthesia induction (TTEanesth), and TEE following anesthesia induction (TEEanesth). The primary endpoint was grade of diastolic dysfunction categorized by a simplified algorithm, and measured by TTEawake and TEEanesth, for which the weighted κ statistic assessed observed agreement beyond chance. Secondary endpoints were peak early diastolic lateral mitral annular tissue velocity (e'lat) and the ratio of peak early diastolic mitral inflow velocity (E) to e'lat (E/e'lat), measured by TTEawake and TEEanesth, were compared using Bland-Altman limits of agreement. RESULTS: Disagreement in grading diastolic dysfunction by ≥1 grade occurred in 43 (54%) of 79 patients and by ≥2 grades in 8 (10%) patients with paired measurements for analysis, yielding a weighted κ of 0.35 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-0.51) for the observed level of agreement beyond chance. Bland-Altman analysis of paired data for e'lat and E/e'lat demonstrated a mean difference (95% CI) of 0.51 (-0.06 to 1.09) and 0.70 (0.07-1.34), respectively, for measurements made by TTEawake compared to TEEanesth. The percentage (95% CI) of paired measurements for e'lat and E/e'lat that lay outside the [-2, +2] study-specified boundary of acceptable agreement was 36% (27%-48%) and 39% (29%-51%), respectively. Results were generally robust to sensitivity analyses, including comparing measurements between TTEawake and TTEanesth, between TTEanesth and TEEanesth, and after regrading diastolic dysfunction by the American Society of Echocardiography (ASE)/European Association of CardioVascular Imaging (EACVI) algorithm. CONCLUSIONS: There was poor agreement between TTEawake and TEEanesth for grading diastolic dysfunction by a simplified algorithm, with disagreement by ≥1 grade in 54% and by ≥2 grades in 10% of the evaluable cohort. Future studies, including comparing the prognostic utility of TTEawake and TEEanesth for clinically important adverse outcomes that may be a consequence of diastolic dysfunction, are needed to understand whether this disagreement reflects random variability in Doppler variables, misclassification by the changed technique and physiological conditions of intraoperative TEE, or the accurate detection of a clinically relevant change in diastolic dysfunction.

Radiation exposure and leukaemia risk among cohorts of persons exposed to low and moderate doses of external ionising radiation in childhood.

BACKGROUND: Many high-dose groups demonstrate increased leukaemia risks, with risk greatest following childhood exposure; risks at low/moderate doses are less clear. METHODS: We conducted a pooled analysis of the major radiation-associated leukaemias (acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) with/without the inclusion of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL)) in ten childhood-exposed groups, including Japanese atomic bomb survivors, four therapeutically irradiated and five diagnostically exposed cohorts, a mixture of incidence and mortality data. Relative/absolute risk Poisson regression models were fitted. RESULTS: Of 365 cases/deaths of leukaemias excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, there were 272 AML/CML/ALL among 310,905 persons (7,641,362 person-years), with mean active bone marrow (ABM) dose of 0.11 Gy (range 0-5.95). We estimated significant (P < 0.005) linear excess relative risks/Gy (ERR/Gy) for: AML (n = 140) = 1.48 (95% CI 0.59-2.85), CML (n = 61) = 1.77 (95% CI 0.38-4.50), and ALL (n = 71) = 6.65 (95% CI 2.79-14.83). There is upward curvature in the dose response for ALL and AML over the full dose range, although at lower doses (<0.5 Gy) curvature for ALL is downwards. DISCUSSION: We found increased ERR/Gy for all major types of radiation-associated leukaemia after childhood exposure to ABM doses that were predominantly (for 99%) <1 Gy, and consistent with our prior analysis focusing on <100 mGy.

Impact of COVID-19 in patients on active melanoma therapy and with history of melanoma.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 particularly impacted patients with co-morbid conditions, including cancer. Patients with melanoma have not been specifically studied in large numbers. Here, we sought to identify factors that associated with COVID-19 severity among patients with melanoma, particularly assessing outcomes of patients on active targeted or immune therapy. METHODS: Using the COVID-19 and Cancer Consortium (CCC19) registry, we identified 307 patients with melanoma diagnosed with COVID-19. We used multivariable models to assess demographic, cancer-related, and treatment-related factors associated with COVID-19 severity on a 6-level ordinal severity scale. We assessed whether treatment was associated with increased cardiac or pulmonary dysfunction among hospitalized patients and assessed mortality among patients with a history of melanoma compared with other cancer survivors. RESULTS: Of 307 patients, 52 received immunotherapy (17%), and 32 targeted therapy (10%) in the previous 3 months. Using multivariable analyses, these treatments were not associated with COVID-19 severity (immunotherapy OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.19 - 1.39; targeted therapy OR 1.89, 95% CI 0.64 - 5.55). Among hospitalized patients, no signals of increased cardiac or pulmonary organ dysfunction, as measured by troponin, brain natriuretic peptide, and oxygenation were noted. Patients with a history of melanoma had similar 90-day mortality compared with other cancer survivors (OR 1.21, 95% CI 0.62 - 2.35). CONCLUSIONS: Melanoma therapies did not appear to be associated with increased severity of COVID-19 or worsening organ dysfunction. Patients with history of melanoma had similar 90-day survival following COVID-19 compared with other cancer survivors.

Screening for the high-need population using single institution versus state-wide admissions discharge transfer feed.

BACKGROUND: Access to programs for high-needs patients depending on single-institution electronic health record data (EHR) carries risks of biased sampling. We investigate a statewide admission, discharge, and transfer feed (ADT) in assessing equity in access to these programs. METHODS: This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. We included high-need patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC) 18 years or older, with at least three emergency visits (ED) or hospitalizations in Tennessee from January 1 to June 30, 2021, including at least one at VUMC. We used the Tennessee ADT database to identify high-need patients with at least one VUMC ED/hospitalization. Then, we compared this population with high-need patients identified using VUMC's Epic® EHR database. The primary outcome was the sensitivity of VUMC-only criteria for identifying high-need patients compared to the statewide ADT reference standard. RESULTS: We identified 2549 patients with at least one ED/hospitalization and assessed them as high-need based on the statewide ADT. Of those, 2100 had VUMC-only visits, and 449 had VUMC and non-VUMC visits. VUMC-only visit screening criteria showed high sensitivity (99.1%, 95% CI: 98.7 - 99.5%), showing that the high-needs patients admitted to VUMC infrequently access alternative systems. Results showed no meaningful difference in sensitivity when stratified by patient's race or insurance. CONCLUSIONS: ADT allows examination for potential selection bias when relying upon single-institution utilization. In VUMC's high-need patients, there's minimal selection bias when depending on same-site utilization. Further research must understand how biases vary by site and durability over time.

Is an Acute Perioperative Increase in Creatinine Production Rate a Potential Mechanism for an Early Creatinine-Based Signal of Renal Injury After Cardiac Surgery?

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies report a creatinine-based signal of injury within hours after cardiac surgery, which is sooner than expected based on creatinine kinetic modelling. A plausible mechanism for such an early signal has not been established, but might be explained by an acute perioperative increase in creatinine production rate (Crprod-rate). The authors sought to test the hypothesis that perioperative Crprod-rate increases from baseline in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Academic medical center. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty adult male patients undergoing cardiac surgery. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Based on the principle of conservation of mass, precisely timed serial measurements of patient weight, plasma and urine creatinine concentration, and urine volume were used to calculate Crprod-rate over 3 consecutive periods: a baseline period immediately before surgery (period 0), the 24-hour period starting from induction of anesthesia (period 1), and again from 24 to 48 hours after induction of anesthesia (period 2). The primary outcome was change in Crprod-rate from period 0 to period 1 (∆Crprod-rate0-1). Median Crprod-rate0 was 5.4 (interquartile range [IQR], 4.7-5.7) µmol/kg/h at baseline and increased to 6.1 (IQR, 5.6-6.5) µmol/kg/h during period 1, a median increase of 14% (95% CI, 8%-27%; p = 0.002). ∆Crprod-rate0-1 ranged from -58% to +129%, with an increase above baseline in 25 patients (76%) and an increase by ≥30% above baseline in 10 patients (30%). CONCLUSIONS: Perioperative Crprod-rate increased from baseline in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This may represent a mechanism for an earlier creatinine-based signal of renal injury than previously thought possible.

Chromosome aberrations among atomic-bomb survivors exposed in utero: updated analysis accounting for revised radiation doses and smoking.

A previous study of peripheral blood lymphocyte translocations around age 40 among atomic-bomb survivors exposed in utero revealed no overall association with radiation dose-despite a clear association between translocations and dose among their mothers-but the data suggested an increase at doses below 100 mGy with a definite peak. That analysis of the in utero-exposed survivors did not adjust for their subsequent smoking behavior, an established cause of chromosomal aberrations, or their subsequent exposures to medical irradiation, a potential mediator. In addition, atomic-bomb survivor radiation dose estimates have subsequently been updated and refined. We therefore re-estimated the dose response using the latest DS02R1 dose estimates and adjusting for smoking as well as for city and proximal-distal location at the time of exposure to the atomic bomb. Sex of the survivor, mother's age around the time of conception, and approximate trimester of gestation at the time of exposure were also considered as explanatory variables and modifiers. Precision of the estimated dose response was slightly lower due to greater variability near zero in the updated dose estimates, but there was little change in evidence of a low-dose increase and still no suggestion of an overall increase across the entire dose range. Adjustment for smoking behavior led to a decline in background number of translocations (the dose-response intercept), but smoking did not interact with dose overall (across the entire dose range). Adjustment for medical irradiation did not alter the association between dose and translocation frequency. Sex, mother's age, and trimester were not associated with number of translocations, nor did they interact with dose overall. Interactions with dose in the low-dose range could not be evaluated because of numerical instability.

Reduced Apolipoprotein M and Adverse Outcomes Across the Spectrum of Human Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Apo (apolipoprotein) M mediates the physical interaction between high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles and sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P). Apo M exerts anti-inflammatory and cardioprotective effects in animal models. METHODS: In a subset of PHFS (Penn Heart Failure Study) participants (n=297), we measured apo M by Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay (ELISA). We also measured total S1P by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and isolated HDL particles to test the association between apo M and HDL-associated S1P. We confirmed the relationship between apo M and outcomes using modified aptamer-based apo M measurements among 2170 adults in the PHFS and 2 independent cohorts: the Washington University Heart Failure Registry (n=173) and a subset of TOPCAT (Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure With an Aldosterone Antagonist Trial; n=218). Last, we examined the relationship between apo M and ≈5000 other proteins (SomaScan assay) to identify biological pathways associated with apo M in heart failure. RESULTS: In the PHFS, apo M was inversely associated with the risk of death (standardized hazard ratio, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.51-0.61]; P<0.0001) and the composite of death/ventricular assist device implantation/heart transplantation (standardized hazard ratio, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.58-0.67]; P<0.0001). This relationship was independent of HDL cholesterol or apo AI levels. Apo M remained associated with death (hazard ratio, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.69-0.88]; P<0.0001) and the composite of death/ventricular assist device/heart transplantation (hazard ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.76-0.94]; P=0.001) in models that adjusted for multiple confounders. This association was present in both heart failure with reduced and preserved ejection fraction and was replicated in the Washington University cohort and a cohort with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction only (TOPCAT). The S1P and apo M content of isolated HDL particles strongly correlated (R=0.81, P<0.0001). The top canonical pathways associated with apo M were inflammation (negative association), the coagulation system (negative association), and liver X receptor/retinoid X receptor activation (positive association). The relationship with inflammation was validated with multiple inflammatory markers measured with independent assays. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced circulating apo M is independently associated with adverse outcomes across the spectrum of human heart failure. Further research is needed to assess whether the apo M/S1P axis is a suitable therapeutic target in heart failure.

Cervical Spine Imaging and Injuries in Young Children With Non-Motor Vehicle Crash-Associated Traumatic Brain Injury.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate cervical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT) practices and cervical spine injuries among young children with non-motor vehicle crash (MVC)-associated traumatic brain injury (TBI). METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of a stratified, systematic random sample of 328 children younger than 2 years with non-MVC-associated TBI at 4 urban children's hospitals from 2008 to 2012. We defined TBI etiology as accidental, indeterminate, or abuse. We reported the proportion, by etiology, who underwent cervical MRI or CT, and had cervical abnormalities identified. RESULTS: Of children with non-MVC-associated TBI, 39.4% had abusive head trauma (AHT), 52.2% had accidental TBI, and in 8.4% the etiology was indeterminate. Advanced cervical imaging (CT and/or MRI) was obtained in 19.1% of all children with TBI, with 9.3% undergoing MRI and 11.7% undergoing CT. Cervical MRI or CT was performed in 30.9% of children with AHT, in 11.7% of accidental TBI, and in 10.7% of indeterminate-cause TBI. Among children imaged by MRI or CT, abnormal cervical findings were found in 22.1%, including 31.3% of children with AHT, 7.1% of children with accidental TBI, and 0% of children with indeterminate-cause TBI. Children with more severe head injuries who underwent cervical imaging were more likely to have cervical injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Abusive head trauma victims appear to be at increased risk of cervical injuries. Prospective studies are needed to define the risk of cervical injury in children with TBI concerning for AHT and to inform development of imaging guidelines.

Microcystin-LR (MC-LR) Triggers Inflammatory Responses in Macrophages.

We were the first to previously report that microcystin-LR (MC-LR) has limited effects within the colons of healthy mice but has toxic effects within colons of mice with pre-existing inflammatory bowel disease. In the current investigation, we aimed to elucidate the mechanism by which MC-LR exacerbates colitis and to identify effective therapeutic targets. Through our current investigation, we report that there is a significantly greater recruitment of macrophages into colonic tissue with pre-existing colitis in the presence of MC-LR than in the absence of MC-LR. This is seen quantitatively through IHC staining and the enumeration of F4/80-positive macrophages and through gene expression analysis for Cd68, Cd11b, and Cd163. Exposure of isolated macrophages to MC-LR was found to directly upregulate macrophage activation markers Tnf and Il1b. Through a high-throughput, unbiased kinase activity profiling strategy, MC-LR-induced phosphorylation events were compared with potential inhibitors, and doramapimod was found to effectively prevent MC-LR-induced inflammatory responses in macrophages.

Misclassification of primary liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors.

Primary liver cancer is difficult to diagnose accurately at death, due to metastases from nearby organs and to concomitant diseases, such as chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Trends in diagnostic accuracy could affect radiation risk estimates for incident liver cancer by altering background rates or by impacting risk modification by sex and age. We quantified the potential impact of death-certificate inaccuracies on radiation risk estimates for liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors. True-positive and false-negative rates were obtained from a previous study that compared death-certificate causes of death with those based on pathological review, from 1958 to 1987. We assumed various scenarios for misclassification rates after 1987. We obtained estimated true positives and estimated false negatives by stratified sampling from binomial distributions with probabilities given by the true-positive and false-negative rates, respectively. Poisson regression methods were applied to highly stratified person-year tables of corrected case counts and accrued person years. During the study period (1958-2009), there were 1,885 cases of liver cancer, which included 383 death-certificate-only (DCO) cases; 1,283 cases with chronic liver disease as the underlying cause of death; and 150 DCO cases of pancreatic cancer among 105,444 study participants. Across the range of scenarios considered, radiation risk estimates based on corrected case counts were attenuated, on average, by 13-30%. Our results indicated that radiation risk estimates for liver cancer were potentially sensitive to death-certificate inaccuracies. Additional data are needed to inform misclassification rates in recent years.

Radiation risk of central nervous system tumors in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors, 1958-2009.

Radiation exposure is among the few factors known to be associated with risk of central nervous system (CNS) tumors. However, the patterns of radiation risk by histological type, sex or age are unclear. We evaluated radiation risks of first primary glioma, meningioma, schwannoma, and other or not otherwise specified (other/NOS) tumors in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors. Cases diagnosed between 1958 and 2009 were ascertained through population-based cancer registries in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. To estimate excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy), we fit rate models using Poisson regression methods. There were 285 CNS tumors (67 gliomas, 107 meningiomas, 49 schwannomas, and 64 other/NOS tumors) among 105,444 individuals with radiation dose estimates to the brain contributing 3.1 million person-years of observation. Based on a simple linear model without effect modification, ERR/Gy was 1.67 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.12 to 5.26) for glioma, 1.82 (95% CI: 0.51 to 4.30) for meningioma, 1.45 (95% CI: - 0.01 to 4.97) for schwannoma, and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.61 to 2.57) for all CNS tumors as a group. For each tumor type, the dose-response was consistent with linearity and appeared to be stronger among males than among females, particularly for meningioma (P = 0.045). There was also evidence that the ERR/Gy for schwannoma decreased with attained age (P = 0.002). More than 60 years after the bombings, radiation risks for CNS tumors continue to be elevated. Further follow-up is necessary to characterize the lifetime risks of specific CNS tumors following radiation exposure.

Association of Duration of Hypotension With Survival After Pediatric Cardiac Arrest.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association of a single episode of hypotension and burden of hypotension with survival to hospital discharge following resuscitation from pediatric cardiac arrest. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Single-center PICU. PATIENTS: Patients between 1 day and 18 years old who had a cardiac arrest, received chest compressions for more than 2 minutes, had return of spontaneous circulation for more than 20 minutes, and survived to receive postresuscitation care in the ICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: One-hundred sixteen patients were evaluable. Hypotension, defined as systolic blood pressure less than the fifth percentile for age and sex, occurred in 37 patients (32%) within the first 6 hours and 64 (55%) within 72 hours of postresuscitation ICU care. There was no significant difference in survival to discharge for patients who had a single episode of hypotension within 6 hours (51% vs 69%; p = 0.06) or within 72 hours (56% vs 73%; p = 0.06). Burden of hypotension was defined as the percentage of hypotension measurements that were below the fifth percentile. After controlling for patient and cardiac arrest event characteristics, a higher burden of hypotension within the first 72 hours of ICU postresuscitation care was associated with decreased discharge survival (adjusted odds ratio = 0.67 per 10% increase in hypotension burden; 95% CI, 0.48-0.86; p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: After successful resuscitation from pediatric cardiac arrest, systolic hypotension was common (55%). A higher burden of postresuscitation hypotension within the first 72 hours of ICU postresuscitation care was associated with significantly decreased discharge survival, after accounting for potential confounders including number of doses of epinephrine, arrest location, and arrest etiology due to airway obstruction or trauma.

Radiation exposure and longitudinal changes in peripheral monocytes over 50 years: the Adult Health Study of atomic-bomb survivors.

Enhanced inflammatory responses have been suggested decades after radiation exposure in atomic-bomb survivors, but cellular and molecular alterations related to prolonged inflammation remain unclear. This study, utilizing longitudinal haematological data over 50 years for 14 000 persons, investigated whether radiation exposure promoted the relative increase in peripheral myeloid cells, known as an aging-associated indicator of low-grade inflammation. Statistical modelling was performed with a linear mixed-effects model for leucocyte subsets, together with a proportional hazards regression model for all-cause mortality. We found that age trends in lymphocyte, neutrophil and monocyte percentages or counts differed before versus after age 60 years. Radiation dose was associated with monocyte percentages and counts, but not with the lymphoid-myeloid cell ratio. Radiation effects on monocytes were stronger after versus before age 60 years. Increases in monocyte percentages and counts were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality. Studies of chromosomal aberrations have shown a clonal expansion of haematopoietic stem cells among atomic-bomb survivors. Therefore, radiation exposure might accelerate aging-associated clonal haematopoiesis, which could result in a long-lasting elevation of circulating monocytes.

Design and analysis of nested case-control studies for recurrent events subject to a terminal event.

The process by which patients experience a series of recurrent events, such as hospitalizations, may be subject to death. In cohort studies, one strategy for analyzing such data is to fit a joint frailty model for the intensities of the recurrent event and death, which estimates covariate effects on the two event types while accounting for their dependence. When certain covariates are difficult to obtain, however, researchers may only have the resources to subsample patients on whom to collect complete data: one way is using the nested case-control (NCC) design, in which risk set sampling is performed based on a single outcome. We develop a general framework for the design of NCC studies in the presence of recurrent and terminal events and propose estimation and inference for a joint frailty model for recurrence and death using data arising from such studies. We propose a maximum weighted penalized likelihood approach using flexible spline models for the baseline intensity functions. Two standard error estimators are proposed: a sandwich estimator and a perturbation resampling procedure. We investigate operating characteristics of our estimators as well as design considerations via a simulation study and illustrate our methods using two studies: one on recurrent cardiac hospitalizations in patients with heart failure and the other on local recurrence and metastasis in patients with breast cancer.

A National Analysis of Pediatric Trauma Care Utilization and Outcomes in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: More childhood deaths are attributed to trauma than all other causes combined. Our objectives were to provide the first national description of the proportion of injured children treated at pediatric trauma centers (TCs), and to provide clarity to the presumed benefit of pediatric TC verification by comparing injury mortality across hospital types. METHODS: We performed a population-based cohort study using the 2006 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Kids Inpatient Database combined with national TC inventories. We included pediatric discharges (≤16 y) with the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision code(s) for injury. Descriptive analyses were performed evaluating proportions of injured children cared for by TC level. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate differences in in-hospital mortality by TC type (among level-1 TCs only). Analyses were survey-weighted using Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project sampling weights. RESULTS: Of 153,380 injured children, 22.3% were admitted to pediatric TCs, 45.2% to general TCs, and 32.6% to non-TCs. Overall mortality was 0.9%. Among level-1 TCs, raw mortality was 1.0% pediatric TC, 1.4% dual TC, and 2.1% general TC. In adjusted analyses, treatment at level-1 pediatric TCs was associated with a significant mortality decrease compared to level-1 general TCs (adjusted odds ratio, 0.6; 95% confidence intervals, 0.4-0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide the first national evidence that treatment at verified pediatric TCs may improve outcomes, supporting a survival benefit with pediatric trauma verification. Given lack of similar survival advantage found for level-1 dual TCs (both general/pediatric verified), we highlight the need for further investigation to understand factors responsible for the survival advantage at pediatric-only TCs, refine pediatric accreditation guidelines, and disseminate best practices.

Detailed Echocardiographic Phenotyping in Breast Cancer Patients: Associations With Ejection Fraction Decline, Recovery, and Heart Failure Symptoms Over 3 Years of Follow-Up.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease in patients with breast cancer is of growing concern. The longitudinal effects of commonly used therapies, including doxorubicin and trastuzumab, on cardiac remodeling and function remain unknown in this population. We aimed to define the changes in echocardiographic parameters of structure, function, and ventricular-arterial coupling, and their associations with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and heart failure symptoms. METHODS: In a longitudinal prospective cohort study of 277 breast cancer participants receiving doxorubicin (Dox), trastuzumab (Tras), or both (Dox+Tras), we obtained 1249 echocardiograms over a median follow-up of 2.0 (interquartile range, 1.0-3.0) years. Left ventricular structure, diastolic and contractile function, and ventricular-arterial coupling measures were quantified in a core laboratory blinded to participant characteristics. We evaluated changes in echocardiographic parameters over time, and used repeated-measures regression models to define their association with LVEF decline and recovery. Linear regression models defined the association between early changes in these parameters and subsequent changes in LVEF and heart failure symptoms. RESULTS: Overall, 177 (64%) received Dox, 51 (18%) received Tras, and 49 (18%) received Dox+Tras. With Dox, there was a sustained, modest decrease in LVEF over the follow-up duration (1-year change in LVEF -3.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -4.4% to -2.8%; 3-year change -3.8%; 95% CI, -5.1% to -2.5%). With Tras, a similar LVEF decline was observed at 1 year (-4.5%; 95% CI, -6.0% to -2.9%) and 3 years (-2.8%; 95%CI, -5.3 to -0.4%). Participants receiving Dox+Tras demonstrated the greatest declines at 1 year (-6.6%; 95% CI, -8.2 to -5.0%), with partial recovery at 3 years (-2.8%; 95% CI, -4.8 to -0.8%). LVEF declines and recovery were associated primarily with changes in systolic volumes, longitudinal and circumferential strain, and ventricular-arterial coupling indices, effective arterial elastance (Ea) and the coupling ratio Ea/Eessb, without evidence for effect modification across therapies. Early changes in volumes, strain, and Ea/Eessb at 4 to 6 months were associated with 1- and 2-year LVEF changes. Similarly, early changes in strain and Ea were associated with worsening heart failure symptoms at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Doxorubicin and trastuzumab resulted in modest, persistent declines in LVEF at 3 years. Changes in volumes, strain, and ventricular-arterial coupling were consistently associated with concurrent and subsequent LVEF declines and recovery across therapies.

Population Density in Hiroshima and Nagasaki Before the Bombings in 1945: Its Measurement and Impact on Radiation Risk Estimates in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors.

In the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors, differences in urbanicity between high-dose and low-dose survivors could confound the association between radiation dose and adverse outcomes. We obtained data on the population distribution in Hiroshima and Nagasaki before the 1945 bombings and quantified the impact of adjustment for population density on radiation risk estimates for mortality (1950-2003) and incident solid cancer (1958-2009). Population density ranged from 4,671 to 14,378 people/km2 in the urban region of Hiroshima and 5,748 to 19,149 people/km2 in the urban region of Nagasaki. Radiation risk estimates for solid cancer mortality were attenuated by 5.1% after adjustment for population density, but those for all-cause mortality and incident solid cancer were unchanged. There was no overall association between population density and adverse outcomes, but there was evidence that the association between density and mortality differed according to age at exposure. Among survivors who were 10-14 years of age in 1945, there was a positive association between population density and risk of all-cause mortality (per 5,000-people/km2 increase, relative risk = 1.053, 95% confidence interval: 1.027, 1.079) and solid cancer mortality (per 5,000-people/km2 increase, relative risk = 1.069, 95% confidence interval: 1.025, 1.115). Our results suggest that radiation risk estimates from the Life Span Study are not sensitive to unmeasured confounding by urban-rural differences.