[Trends of stomach cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong province from 2012 to 2012 and predictions from 2023 to 2030].

Objective: We aimed to analyse the trend of incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Shandong province from 2012 to 2022 and predict the development trend from 2023 to 2030. Methods: Data on incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Shandong province from 2012 to 2022 were obtained from Shandong Cancer Registry. The incidence, age-specific incidence, mortality and age-specific mortality in different years, sexes and urban and rural areas were calculated, the rates were standardized based on the age composition of the Chinese standard population in 2000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality was calculated using Joinpoint software. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trend of stomach cancer incidence and mortality from 2023 to 2030. Results: From 2012 to 2022, the stomach cancer age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) showed a decreasing trend. The ASIR decreased from 27.47/100 000 in 2012 to 16.06/100 000 in 2022 (AAPC=-5.10%, P＜0.001), and the ASMR decreased from 17.69/100 000 to 11.09/100 000 (AAPC=-5.52%, P＜0.001). The ASIR and ASMR of male, female, urban and rural population also showed downward trends. The incidence and mortality rates of men were always higher than those of women, and the difference between urban and rural areas is gradually narrowing. In 2022, the ASIR (16.09/100 000 in urban and 16.03/100 000 in rural) and the ASMR (11.10/100 000 in urban and 11.08/100 000 in rural) of stomach cancer between urban and rural areas were nearly identical. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that the ASIR of stomach cancer in Shandong would further decrease from 2023 to 2030 (AAPC=-0.51%, P=0.001), but the change tended to be smooth. The incidences in male (AAPC=-1.46%, P=0.010) and rural areas (AAPC=-1.21%, P＜0.001) were still expected to have a little room for decline. The trend of incidences in female and urban areas were not statistically significant. The trend of mortality was consistent with the incidence. Conclusions: The stomach cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong shows a decreasing trend and it is expected to decrease further by 2030. However, the trend tends to be smooth, and the disease burden should be reduced as early as possible for high-risk population and high-risk factors of stomach cancer.

[Analysis of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022 based on the age-period-cohort model].

Objective: To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and estimate its age-period-cohort effect in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022. Methods: The Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) based on the data on thyroid cancer from 2012 to 2022. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age-effect, time-effect and cohort-effect of thyroid cancer risk in the population aged over 20 years. Results: From 2012 to 2022, the incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong province showed a significant upward trend, with an AAPC of 21.68% (95%CI: 19.14%-24.27%, P<0.001). The incidence of females was higher than that of males, and the incidence of urban areas was higher than that of rural areas. The trend of thyroid cancer mortality was relatively stable with an AAPC of -3.04% (95%CI:-8.81%-3.09%, P=0.323). The age effect of incidence increased with age before 60 years old and decreased with age after 60 years old. The incidence peaked in the age group of 55-59. The period effect increased with time. The cohort effect showed that the cohort born before 1957 had a downward trend over time, while the cohort born after 1957 had an upward trend. Conclusion: The incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong shows a rising trend from 2012 to 2022. Age is an important factor affecting the risk of thyroid cancer. The mortality of thyroid cancer remains stable.

[Cancer survival during 2012-2018 in cancer registries of Shandong Province].

Objective: To analyze the 5-year cancer relative survival rate in cancer registries of Shandong Province during 2012-2018. Methods: 399 072 new cancer cases were collected in 23 cancer registries in Shandong Province during 2012-2018. All malignant tumors (C00-C97, D45-D47), benign central nervous system tumors (D32-D33), and central nervous system tumors (D42-D43) were registered according to the 10th revision of international classification of diseases (ICD). The survival of cancer patients was obtained by passive and active follow-up. The follow-up date was December 31, 2020. The diagnostic years were divided into three periods: 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-2020. The 5-year cancer survival rates were calculated by cohort approach, period analysis and hybrid approach, and the survival status of different sex, urban and rural areas, cancer species and age groups were analyzed. Results: The age of 399 072 new cancer cases was (63.5±13.7) years old, with 57.77% (230 538 cases) about male and 32.89% (131 247 cases) from urban. During 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-2020, the 5-year cancer survival rates in Shandong Province were 32.3%, 34.7% and 40.2%, respectively. In 2018-2020, the first five cancers with survival rates were thyroid cancer (86.0%), breast cancer (78.2%), testicular cancer (75.7%), bladder cancer (70.3%) and uterine cancer (69.2%), and the last five cancers with survival rates were pancreatic cancer (15.5%), liver cancer (16.8%), gallbladder cancer (19.6%), bone cancer (22.7%) and lung cancer (24.4%). The 5-year survival rate for cancer of women (47.8%) was higher than that of men (33.8%), and the rate of urban areas (45.7%) was higher than that of rural areas (37.3%) during 2018-2020. The first five cancers in men were thyroid (87.1%), testicular (75.7%), bladder (70.9%), kidney (65.6%) and prostate (62.8%) cancers, and the last five cancers were pancreatic (14.3%), liver (16.8%), gallbladder (18.2%), bone (19.9%) and lung (21.7%) cancers. The first five cancers in women were thyroid (85.5%), breast (78.0%), uterine (69.2%), bladder (68.8%) and kidney (66.8%) cancers, and the last five cancers were liver (17.2%), pancreatic (17.2%), gallbladder (22.0%), bone (27.2%) and lung (29.1%) cancers. Conclusion: The 5-year cancer survival rate in Shandong Province was on the rise from 2012 to 2018, and the survival rates of different cancers were different.

[Mortality level and tendency of road traffic injury in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2020].

Objective: To analyze the mortality level and tendency of road traffic injury in Shandong province from 2012 to 2020. Methods: Based on the data of road traffic deaths from the cause of death registration system in Shandong province from 2012 to 2020, the mortality rates of road traffic injury were calculated by sex, age, area, and injury type. The mortality was standardized based on the age structure of the Chinese population in the sixth Population Census in 2010. The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the mortalities and the standarized mortalities were calculated by using Joinpoint regression model, and the trends were also examined. Results: In 2020, the crude mortality of road traffic injury in Shandong Province was 15.58/100 000, and the standardized mortality was 12.90/100 000. From 2012 to 2020, the standardized mortality of road traffic injury in Shandong province showed a downward trend with AAPC of -5.4%. The standardized mortality of middle-south mountain areas, male and children aged 0-14 years in Shandong showed a significantly decreasing trend with AAPC of -6.8%, -6.1% and -6.0%, respectively. The standardized mortality of people aged 65 years and over did not decrease significantly, but the number of deaths increased significantly by 50.96% in 2020 (5 780 cases), compared with those in 2012 (3 829 cases). The standardized mortality of pedestrian and motorcyclists decreased significantly with AAPC of -7.5% and -6.7%, respectively. There was no significant change in the standardized mortality among people who rode motor vehicles or bicycles. Conclusion: From 2012 to 2020, the standardized mortality of road traffic injury in Shandong Province showed an obvious downward trend, but the standardized mortality of people aged 65 years and over did not decrease significantly. In the future, it is still necessary to take government-led, multi-sectoral collaboration, with a focus on comprehensive preventive measures, to further reduce road traffic injury mortality.

[Spatio-temporal trend of female breast cancer mortality in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2013].

The mortality of female breast cancer in Shandong Province has increased since the 1970. The differential decomposition analysis found that the slight decline in the crude mortality of breast cancer among women was entirely due to non-demographic factors during the 1970-1990, and the significant increase in the crude mortality was due to a combination of demographic and non-demographic factors since the 1990. The contribution rate of demographic factor has gradually increased from 53.5% in 2004-2005 to 59.5% in 2011-2013, while that of non-demographic factor has decreased from 46.5% to 40.5%. The women aged 45-64 years old were the major population of female breast cancer deaths, accounting for 40%-60% of total breast cancer deaths in different times, and then the mortality in female aged 55-64 years old increased rapidly, with increases of 52.12%, 115.19% and 29.01% in 2011-2013 over the 1970-1974, 1990-1992 and 2004-2005, respectively (Z=-7.342,P<0.001). Compared with 1970-1974, the age-standardized mortality rate of rural women increased by 41.86% in 2011-2013 (Z=-17.933, P<0.001), and that of urban women increased by 18.62% in 2011-2013 (Z=-25.642, P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in urban women was higher than that in rural women in different times (all P<0.05). The spatial scan analysis found that eastern Shandong Province was found to be a sustained high-risk area for death, and other high-risk areas were transferred from north to southwest of Shandong between 1970 and 2013.

[Analysis of the trend and spatial clustering of gastric cancer deaths in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2013].

Objective: To investigate the distribution characteristics and trends of mortality and spatial aggregation of gastric cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2013. Methods: The mortality data of gastric cancer from 1970 to 1974, 1990 to 1992 and 2004 to 2005 were collected from the first, second and third retrospective sampling survey of causes of death in Shandong Province, respectively. The mortality data of gastric cancer from 2011 to 2013 were collected from the all-cause surveillance data of Shandong Province. The crude mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate were used to describe the death level of gastric cancer. The age-standardized mortality rate of Shandong Province was calculated based on Segi's world standard population, and the age-standardized mortality rate of counties (cities and districts) was calculated based on the Chinese population in 1964.The factors influencing the difference of gastric cancer mortality in different periods were decomposed by using the method of differential decomposition of mortality, and the contributions of population and non-population factors in different periods were estimated.Using ArcGIS 10.2 software, the death level of gastric cancer in different counties (cities and districts) in Shandong province from 1970 to 1974 and 2011 to 2013 were visualized. DeoDa 1.12 software was used for global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results: The crude death rate and age-standardized death rate of gastric cancer in Shandong province increased firstly and then decreased during 1970-2013, and the crude death rate of gastric cancer increased from 18.33/100 000 in 1970-1974 to 28.51/100 000 in 2011-2013. Segi's age-standardized mortality rate for gastric cancer decreased from 20.94 per 100 000 in 1970-1974 to 18.17 per 100 000 in 2011-2013.From 1990 to 1992, from 2004 to 2005 and from 2011 to 2013, the contribution value of non-population factors to the increase of crude gc mortality was 95.59%, 48.45% and -20.57%, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend. The Moran's I index of crude mortality of gastric cancer in Shandong province from 1970 to 1974 and from 2011 to 2013 were 0.77 and 0.57, respectively, and the Moran's I index of age-normalized mortality was 0.75 and 0.44, respectively. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that there were 31 and 19 high aged-mortality areas of gastric cancer in 1970-1974 and 2011-2013 respectively, and 7 overlapping counties (cities and districts), 6 of which were located in Jiaodong area. Conclusion: The crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of gastric cancer in Shandong province increased first and then decreased from 1970 to 2013, and the distribution of gastric cancer mortality had obvious spatial aggregation and changed with time.

[Statistical analysis of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China, 2015].

Objective: To estimate the incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in China in 2015. Methods: The data from 501 cancer registries in China collected by the National Cancer Center were reviewed and evaluated, and the qualified data were included in the final analysis. According to the national population data in 2015, the nationwide incidence and mortality of the prostate cancer were estimated. Chinese standard population in 2000 and world Segi's population were used to calculate the age-standardized (ASR) incidence and mortality rates (ASR China and world, respectively). Results: After data review, the data reported by 368 registries were included in the final analysis, covering a total population of 309 553 499, accounting for 22.52% of the national population at the end of 2015. There were 72 thousand new prostate cancer cases estimated in China in 2015, with a crude incidence rate of 10.23/100 000. The ASR China and ASR world are 6.59/100 000 and 6.47/100 000, respectively, which is the sixth incidence of male malignant tumor.The estimated number of prostate cancer death was 3.07 thousand in China in 2015, with a crude mortality rate of 4.36/100 000; The ASR China and ASR world mortality rates were 2.61/100 000 and 2.65/100 000, respectively, which is the tenth leading cause of death in male malignant tumor.The ASR China incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in males were higher in urban areas (8.40/100 000 and 3.11/100 000) than those in rural areas (4.16/100 000 and 1.90/100 000). The incidence and mortality rates in the eastern areas (8.54/100 000 and 2.99/100 000) were higher than those in the central (5.28/100 000 and 2.34/100 000) and western areas (5.32/100 000 and 2.37/100 000) of China. Conclusions: The incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in China are lower than the global average, but there is an increasing trend. The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China have obvious regional differences.

[Incidence and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China, 2014].

Objective: To estimate the incidence and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China based on cancer registration data in 2014, collected by the National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR). Methods: 449 cancer registries submitted nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence and deaths occurred in 2014 to NCCR. After evaluating the data quality, 339 registries' data were accepted for analysis and stratified by area (urban/rural) and age group. Combined with data on national population in 2014, the nationwide incidence and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma were estimated. Chinese population census in 2000 and Segi's population were used for age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. Results: The estimates of new nasopharyngeal carcinoma incident cases and deaths were 44.6 thousands and 24.2 thousands, respectively. The crude incidence rate was 3.26/100 000 (Male 4.51/100 000, Female 1.94/100 000). Age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC, 2000) and by world standard population (ASIRW) were 2.48/100 000 and 2.33/100 000, respectively. Male to female ratio was 2.32∶1. The ASIRC in urban and rural areas were all 2.48/100 000. The crude mortality rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma was 1.77/100 000 (Male 2.55/100 000, Female 0.95/100 000). Age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population (ASMRC, 2000) and by world standard population(ASMRW) were 1.23/100 000 and 1.20/100 000, respectively. The ASMRC in urban and rural areas were all 1.23/100 000. The cumulative incidence and mortality rates(0-74 years old)were 0.25% and 0.14%, respectively. Conclusions: Incidence and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China in 2014 were at high levels in the world. Corresponding prevention and control measures should be established according to the epidemic characteristics and risk factors of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

[Spatial clustering analysis and trend of liver cancer death rate in Shandong province, 1970-2013].

Objective: To explore the spatial clustering and trend of liver cancer mortality in different counties of Shandong province from 1970 to 2013, and provide scientific basis for the development of liver cancer prevention and control plan. Methods: Cancer mortality data were obtained from Shandong Death Registration System and three national death cause surveys in China. Mortality rate and age adjusted mortality rate were used to describe the trend of liver cancer in different years. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to the change of mortality. Software ArcGIS 10.2 was used for spatial analysis, and software SaTScan 9.4 was used for spatial clustering analysis on liver cancer mortality. Results: From 2011 to 2013, the crude mortality rate of liver cancer (29.89/100 000) in Shandong increased by 208.00% and 35.37% respectively compared with that during 1970-1974 (9.72/100 000) and 1990-1992 (22.08/100 000) and was similar to that during 2004-2005 (30.44/100 000). While age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) increased first and then decreased. The ASMR during 2011-2013 (12.62/100 000) increased by 60.97% compared with that during 1970-1974 and decreased by 22.38% and 21.81% compared with that during 1990-1992 and 2004-2005, respectively. According to the difference decomposition analysis on liver cancer mortality in different years, the contribution of population factors to the liver cancer mortality rate increased from 3.38% during 1990-1992 to 29.36% during 2004-2005 and 46.16% during 2011-2013. However, the contribution of non-population factors to the increase of liver cancer mortality decreased. According to the spatial distribution of liver cancer mortality, the crude mortality rate of liver cancer in different counties were quite different, ranging from 9.33/100 000 to 65.33/100 000. Using the spatial scanning statistical software to analyze the spatial clustering of liver cancer mortality, multi areas with high mortality rate of liver cancer were found, and they were mainly distributed in Jiaodong peninsula from 2011 to 2013, covering 20 counties (cities, districts) in Qingdao, Yantai and Weihai. The risk of liver cancer mortality in this area was 1.54 times higher than that in other areas. The spatial clustering distribution of liver cancer mortality during 1970-1974 was significantly different from that during 2011-2013, the areas with high mortality rate during 1970-1974 were mainly distributed in central and western Shandong. Conclusions: There were significant temporal and spatial distribution changes in the mortality rate of liver cancer in Shandong from 1970 to 2013. According to these trends and their geographical and spatial distribution, we should further explore the risk factors of liver cancer, and formulate feasible and area specific prevention and control measures for liver cancer.

[The Breast Cancer Cohort Study in Chinese Women: the methodology of population-based cohort and baseline characteristics].

Objective: Breast cancer has been the first cancer among women with the incidence increasing gradually. In September 2016, the Breast Cancer Cohort Study in Chinese Women (BCCS-CW) was initiated, aiming to establish a standardized and sharable breast cancer-specific cohort by integrating the existing cohort resource and improving the quality of follow-up. The BCCS-CW may provide a research basis and platform for the precision prevention and treatment of breast cancer in etiology identification, prevention, early diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis prediction. Methods: We conducted a population-based perspective cohort by questionnaire interview, anthropometry, biological specimens, breast ultrasound and mammography. The cohort was followed by using regional health surveillance and ad hoc survey. Results: Finally, BCCS-CW included 112 118 women, in which 55 419 women completed the standardized investigation and blood specimens were collected from 54 304 women. The mean age of participants was 51.7 years old, 62.7% were overweight or obese, and 48.9% were menopausal. Conclusion: The BCCS-CW will provide population-based cohort resource and research platform for the precise prevention and treatment of breast cancer in Chinese women.

[Trend of mortality and decomposition on malignant tumors in Shandong province, 1970-2013].

Objective: To describe the mortality trend of major malignant tumors in Shandong province, from 1970 to 2013. Methods: Data related to cancer mortality were obtained from the Shandong Death Registration System and three nationwide retrospective cause-of-death surveys. Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using the indicators as: mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates, through comparing the three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. Results: From 1970 to 2013, the crude mortality rate of malignant tumors in Shandong was increasing. The age standard mortality rate was increasing and then decreasing. The composition of cancer deaths in the all-cause-deaths was seen increasing and then decreasing as well. Both demographic and non-demographic factors contributed to the increase of crude cancer mortality rate. With the gradual increase of the proportion of population, its role exceeded the non-demographic factors. The age-standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in 2011-2013 was lower than that in 2004-2005. Lung cancer mortality rose from the fifth to the first place, with an increase of 6.81 times from 1970-1974 to 2011-2013. Ranking of gastric cancer mortality dropped from first to the third place, with esophageal cancer dropped from second to the fourth. After adjusted by China's standard population in 1964, the mortality rate of lung cancer was still rapidly increasing, but the age-standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer was gradually decreasing. The crude and age-standardized mortality rates of cervical cancer showed a rapid downward trend, reduced 87.00% and 93.00% respectively from 1970-1974 to 2011-2013. Conclusions: Malignant tumors were still major threats to the residents of Shandong province. The changing trend of different malignant tumors presented an inconsistent nature which called for different intervention strategies be carried out, accordingly.

[Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in adults in Shandong province, 2013].

Objective: To understand the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in adults in Shandong province in 2013. Methods: Adults aged ≥18 were selected through multistage clustering sampling in 19 counties and districts in Shandong province. Design-based methods were adopted to analyze the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension among local residents. Results: A total of 11 270 adults aged 18-69 years were surveyed, the prevalence of hypertension was 27.9% (31.4% in males, 24.3% in females) in Shandong province. The awareness rate of hypertension was 37.4% (34.7% in males, 41.0% in females), and the treatment rate of hypertension was 26.6% (23.4% in males, 30.7% in females). The treatment control rate of hypertension was 26.7% (28.3% in males, 25.1% in females) and the control rate of hypertension was 7.1% (6.6% in males, 7.7% in females). Conclusions: The prevalence of hypertension was high, but the awareness rate of hypertension, the treatment rate and the control rate of hypertension were low in adults in Shandong province. It is necessary to strengthen the health education about hypertension in young population, the prevention and control of hypertension in old population and those with low education level, the standardized management of hypertension cases and the reduction of risk factors for hypertension.