Ascertainment of Dementia Cases in the Spanish European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Murcia Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Cohort studies generally focus on a particular disease, although they offer the possibility of evaluating different outcomes with minimal additional investment. The objective of this study was to describe the methodology used to assess dementia in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Murcia study. METHODS: The EPIC-Murcia cohort consists of 8,515 healthy participants (68% women, aged 30-70 years), recruited between 1992 and 1996 and followed up for over 20 years. Incident cases were ascertained by a 2-step protocol: a record linkage with health databases to identify potential events and a review of medical records of potential cases to validate incident cases. RESULTS: Overall, 1,202 potential cases were identified, and 275 dementia cases were validated. Medical reports were the source of information in 243 cases, with complete neurological information in 227, and a high degree of certainty of the diagnosis in 229 cases. P70 (dementia code) and/or antidementia drugs and/or ICD codes identified 259 cases (sensitivity: 94.2%, 95% CI 90.7-96.6; specificity: 98.1%, 95% CI 97.8-98.4). CONCLUSION: Ascertainment of incident dementia in the EPIC-Murcia cohort study was feasible using information from medical records. This systematic 2-step validation protocol is proposed as a feasible way to ascertain dementia in cohort studies originally designed for other endpoints.

High erythrocyte levels of the n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid linoleic acid are associated with lower risk of subsequent rheumatoid arthritis in a southern European nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: Findings relating to dietary intake of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are mixed. Erythrocyte membrane PUFA is an accurate objective biomarker of PUFA status; however, there are little data on erythrocyte membrane PUFA and risk of RA. The objective was therefore to compare erythrocyte membrane PUFA between pre-RA individuals and matched controls from a population-based sample, and specifically to test the hypothesis that higher levels of longer chain n-3 PUFA are associated with lower risk of RA. METHODS: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) is a large European prospective cohort study of apparently healthy populations. We undertook a nested case-control study by identifying RA cases with onset after enrolment (pre-RA) in four EPIC cohorts in Italy and Spain. Confirmed pre-RA cases were matched with controls by age, sex, centre, and date, time and fasting status at blood collection. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to estimate associations of PUFA with the development of RA, adjusting for potential confounders including body mass index, waist circumference, education level, physical activity, smoking status and alcohol intake. RESULTS: The study analysed samples from 96 pre-RA subjects and 258 matched controls. In this analysis, the median time to diagnosis (defined as time between date of blood sample and date of diagnosis) was 6.71 years (range 0.8-15). A significant inverse association was observed with n-6 PUFA linoleic acid (LA) levels and pre-RA in the fully adjusted model (highest tertile: OR 0.29; 95% CI 0.12 to 0.75; P for trend 0.01). No association was observed with any individual n-3 PUFA, total n-3 PUFA or total n-3:n-6 ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Erythrocyte levels of the n-6 PUFA LA were inversely associated with risk of RA, whereas no associations were observed for other n-6 or n-3 PUFA. Further work is warranted to replicate these findings and to investigate if lower LA levels are a bystander or contributor to the process of RA development.

Interaction between cardiovascular risk factors and body mass index and 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer death, and overall mortality.

The effect of above-normal body mass index (BMI) on health outcomes is controversial because it is difficult to distinguish from the effect due to BMI-associated cardiovascular risk factors. The objective was to analyze the impact on 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer deaths and overall mortality of the interaction between cardiovascular risk factors and BMI. We conducted a pooled analysis of individual data from 12 Spanish population cohorts with 10-year follow-up. Participants had no previous history of cardiovascular diseases and were 35-79years old at basal examination. Body mass index was measured at baseline being the outcome measures ten-year cardiovascular disease, cancer and overall mortality. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for potential confounders, considering the significant interactions with cardiovascular risk factors. We included 54,446 individuals (46.5% with overweight and 27.8% with obesity). After considering the significant interactions, the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in women with overweight and obesity [Hazard Ratio=2.34 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-4.61) and 5.65 (1.54-20.73), respectively]. Overweight and obesity significantly increased the risk of cancer death in women [3.98 (1.53-10.37) and 11.61 (1.93-69.72)]. Finally, obese men had an increased risk of cancer death and overall mortality [1.62 (1.03-2.54) and 1.34 (1.01-1.76), respectively]. In conclusion, overweight and obesity significantly increased the risk of cancer death and of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in women; whereas obese men had a significantly higher risk of death for all causes and for cancer. Cardiovascular risk factors may act as effect modifiers in these associations.

Prediagnostic circulating concentrations of plasma insulin-like growth factor-I and risk of lymphoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

Insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I has cancer promoting activities. However, the hypothesis that circulating IGF-I concentration is related to risk of lymphoma overall or its subtypes has not been examined prospectively. IGF-I concentration was measured in pre-diagnostic plasma samples from a nested case-control study of 1,072 cases of lymphoid malignancies and 1,072 individually matched controls from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for lymphoma were calculated using conditional logistic regression. IGF-I concentration was not associated with overall lymphoma risk (multivariable-adjusted OR for highest versus lowest third = 0.77 [95% CI = 0.57-1.03], ptrend = 0.06). There was no statistical evidence of heterogeneity in this association with IGF-I by sex, age at blood collection, time between blood collection and diagnosis, age at diagnosis, or body mass index (pheterogeneity for all ≥ 0.05). There were no associations between IGF-I concentration and risk for specific BCL subtypes, T-cell lymphoma or Hodgkin lymphoma, although number of cases were small. In this European population, IGF-I concentration was not associated with risk of overall lymphoma. This study provides the first prospective evidence on circulating IGF-I concentrations and risk of lymphoma. Further prospective data are required to examine associations of IGF-I concentrations with lymphoma subtypes.

A combination of plasma phospholipid fatty acids and its association with incidence of type 2 diabetes: The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Combinations of multiple fatty acids may influence cardiometabolic risk more than single fatty acids. The association of a combination of fatty acids with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) has not been evaluated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We measured plasma phospholipid fatty acids by gas chromatography in 27,296 adults, including 12,132 incident cases of T2D, over the follow-up period between baseline (1991-1998) and 31 December 2007 in 8 European countries in EPIC-InterAct, a nested case-cohort study. The first principal component derived by principal component analysis of 27 individual fatty acids (mole percentage) was the main exposure (subsequently called the fatty acid pattern score [FA-pattern score]). The FA-pattern score was partly characterised by high concentrations of linoleic acid, stearic acid, odd-chain fatty acids, and very-long-chain saturated fatty acids and low concentrations of γ-linolenic acid, palmitic acid, and long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids, and it explained 16.1% of the overall variability of the 27 fatty acids. Based on country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analysis, the FA-pattern score was associated with lower incident T2D. Comparing the top to the bottom fifth of the score, the hazard ratio of incident T2D was 0.23 (95% CI 0.19-0.29) adjusted for potential confounders and 0.37 (95% CI 0.27-0.50) further adjusted for metabolic risk factors. The association changed little after adjustment for individual fatty acids or fatty acid subclasses. In cross-sectional analyses relating the FA-pattern score to metabolic, genetic, and dietary factors, the FA-pattern score was inversely associated with adiposity, triglycerides, liver enzymes, C-reactive protein, a genetic score representing insulin resistance, and dietary intakes of soft drinks and alcohol and was positively associated with high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol and intakes of polyunsaturated fat, dietary fibre, and coffee (p < 0.05 each). Limitations include potential measurement error in the fatty acids and other model covariates and possible residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of individual fatty acids, characterised by high concentrations of linoleic acid, odd-chain fatty acids, and very long-chain fatty acids, was associated with lower incidence of T2D. The specific fatty acid pattern may be influenced by metabolic, genetic, and dietary factors.

Alteration of amino acid and biogenic amine metabolism in hepatobiliary cancers: Findings from a prospective cohort study.

Perturbations in levels of amino acids (AA) and their derivatives are observed in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Yet, it is unclear whether these alterations precede or are a consequence of the disease, nor whether they pertain to anatomically related cancers of the intrahepatic bile duct (IHBC), and gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract (GBTC). Circulating standard AA, biogenic amines and hexoses were measured (Biocrates AbsoluteIDQ-p180Kit) in a case-control study nested within a large prospective cohort (147 HCC, 43 IHBC and 134 GBTC cases). Liver function and hepatitis status biomarkers were determined separately. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (OR; 95%CI) for log-transformed standardised (mean = 0, SD = 1) serum metabolite levels and relevant ratios in relation to HCC, IHBC or GBTC risk. Fourteen metabolites were significantly associated with HCC risk, of which seven metabolites and four ratios were the strongest predictors in continuous models. Leucine, lysine, glutamine and the ratio of branched chain to aromatic AA (Fischer's ratio) were inversely, while phenylalanine, tyrosine and their ratio, glutamate, glutamate/glutamine ratio, kynurenine and its ratio to tryptophan were positively associated with HCC risk. Confounding by hepatitis status and liver enzyme levels was observed. For the other cancers no significant associations were observed. In conclusion, imbalances of specific AA and biogenic amines may be involved in HCC development.

Work, household, and leisure-time physical activity and risk of mortality in the EPIC-Spain cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Large-scale longitudinal data on the association of domain-specific physical activity (PA) and mortality is limited. Our objective was to evaluate the association of work, household (HPA), and leisure time PA (LTPA) with overall and cause-specific mortality in the EPIC-Spain study. METHODS: 38,379 participants (62.4% women), 30-65years old, and free of chronic disease at baseline were followed-up from recruitment (1992 - 1996) to December 31st, 2008 to ascertain vital status and cause of death. PA was evaluated at baseline and at a 3-year follow-up with a validated questionnaire (EPIC-PAQ) and combined variables were used to classify the participants by sub-domains of PA. Associations with overall, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality risks were assessed using competing risk Cox regression models adjusted by potential confounders. RESULTS: After 13.6years of mean follow-up, 1371 deaths were available for analyses. HPA was strongly associated to reduced overall (hazard ratio (HR) for Q4 vs. Q1=0.47 (0.34, 0.64)) and cause-specific mortalities in women and to lower cancer mortality in men (P for trend=0.004), irrespective of age, education, and lifestyle and morbidity variables. LTPA was associated with lower mortality in women (HR for Q4 vs. Q1=0.71 (0.52, 0.98)), but not men. No relationships were found between sedentariness at work and overall mortality. CONCLUSIONS: HPA was associated to lower mortality risk in men and women from the EPIC-Spain cohort, whereas LTPA also contributed to reduce risk of death in women. Considering the large proportion of total daily PA that HPA represents in some population groups, these results are of public health importance.

Life-course social position, obesity and diabetes risk in the EPIC-Spain Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The literature has consistently shown that extreme social-economic groups predicted type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), rather than summarising the social gradient throughout all society stratification. Body mass index (BMI) was established as the principal mediator, with little support for other anthropometries. Our aim was to investigate an individual life-course social position (LiSoP) gradient and its mediators with T2D risk in the EPIC-Spain cohort. METHODS: 36 296 participants (62% women), mostly aged 30-65 years, and free of T2D at baseline (1992-1996) were followed up for a mean of 12.1 years. A combined score of paternal occupation in childhood and own adult education assessed individual life-course social risk accumulation. Hazard ratios of T2D were estimated using Cox regression, stratifying by centre and age, and adjusting for different explanatory models, including anthropometric indices; dietary history; smoking and physical activity lifestyles; and clinical information. RESULTS: Final models evidenced significant risks in excess of 63% for middle and 90% for lower classes of LiSoP in men; and of 104 and 126%, respectively, in women. Concurrently, LiSoP presented significant social gradients for T2D risk (P < 0.01) in both sexes. Waist circumference (WC) accounted for most of the risk excess in women, and BMI and WC in men. CONCLUSIONS: LiSoP gradient was related to T2D risk in Spanish men and women. WC mostly explained the relationship in both genders, together with BMI in men, yet LiSoP retained an independent effect in final models.

Body iron status and gastric cancer risk in the EURGAST study.

Although it appears biologically plausible for iron to be associated with gastric carcinogenesis, the evidence is insufficient to lead to any conclusions. To further investigate the relationship between body iron status and gastric cancer risk, we conducted a nested case-control study in the multicentric European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The study included 456 primary incident gastric adenocarcinoma cases and 900 matched controls that occurred during an average of 11 years of follow-up. We measured prediagnostic serum iron, ferritin, transferrin and C-reactive protein, and further estimated total iron-binding capacity (TIBC) and transferrin saturation (TS). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of gastric cancer by iron metrics were estimated from multivariable conditional logistic regression models. After adjusting for relevant confounders, we observed a statistically significant inverse association between gastric cancer and ferritin and TS indices (ORlog2 = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.72-0.88; OR10%increment = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.78-0.97, respectively). These associations appear to be restricted to noncardia gastric cancer (ferritin showed a p for heterogeneity = 0.04 and TS had a p for heterogeneity = 0.02), and no differences were found by histological type. TIBC increased risk of overall gastric cancer (OR50 µg/dl = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.02-1.2) and also with noncardia gastric cancer (p for heterogeneity = 0.04). Additional analysis suggests that time between blood draw and gastric cancer diagnosis could modify these findings. In conclusion, our results showed a decreased risk of gastric cancer related to higher body iron stores as measured by serum iron and ferritin. Further investigation is needed to clarify the role of iron in gastric carcinogenesis.

Baseline and lifetime alcohol consumption and risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma in the EPIC study.

BACKGROUND: Results from several cohort and case-control studies suggest a protective association between current alcohol intake and risk of thyroid carcinoma, but the epidemiological evidence is not completely consistent and several questions remain unanswered. METHODS: The association between alcohol consumption at recruitment and over the lifetime and risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma was examined in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Among 477 263 eligible participants (70% women), 556 (90% women) were diagnosed with differentiated thyroid carcinoma over a mean follow-up of 11 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Compared with participants consuming 0.1-4.9 g of alcohol per day at recruitment, participants consuming 15 or more grams (approximately 1-1.5 drinks) had a 23% lower risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (HR=0.77; 95% CI=0.60-0.98). These findings did not differ greatly when analyses were conducted for lifetime alcohol consumption, although the risk estimates were attenuated and not statistically significant anymore. Similar results were observed by type of alcoholic beverage, by differentiated thyroid carcinoma histology or according to age, sex, smoking status, body mass index and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides some support to the hypothesis that moderate alcohol consumption may be associated with a lower risk of papillary and follicular thyroid carcinomas.

Inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers and risk of liver and biliary tract cancer.

UNLABELLED: Obesity and associated metabolic disorders have been implicated in liver carcinogenesis; however, there are little data on the role of obesity-related biomarkers on liver cancer risk. We studied prospectively the association of inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers with risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), intrahepatic bile duct (IBD), and gallbladder and biliary tract cancers outside of the liver (GBTC) in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Over an average of 7.7 years, 296 participants developed HCC (n=125), GBTC (n=137), or IBD (n=34). Using risk-set sampling, controls were selected in a 2:1 ratio and matched for recruitment center, age, sex, fasting status, and time of blood collection. Baseline serum concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-peptide, total high-molecular-weight (HMW) adiponectin, leptin, fetuin-a, and glutamatdehydrogenase (GLDH) were measured, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression. After adjustment for lifestyle factors, diabetes, hepatitis infection, and adiposity measures, higher concentrations of CRP, IL-6, C-peptide, and non-HMW adiponectin were associated with higher risk of HCC (IRR per doubling of concentrations=1.22; 95% CI=1.02-1.46; P=0.03; 1.90; 95% CI=1.30-2.77; P=0.001; 2.25; 95% CI=1.43-3.54; P=0.0005; and 2.09; 95% CI=1.19-3.67; P=0.01, respectively). CRP was associated also with risk of GBTC (IRR=1.22; 95% CI=1.05-1.42; P=0.01). GLDH was associated with risks of HCC (IRR=1.62; 95% CI=1.25-2.11; P=0.0003) and IBD (IRR=10.5; 95% CI=2.20-50.90; P=0.003). The continuous net reclassification index was 0.63 for CRP, IL-6, C-peptide, and non-HMW adiponectin and 0.46 for GLDH, indicating good predictive ability of these biomarkers. CONCLUSION: Elevated levels of biomarkers of inflammation and hyperinsulinemia are associated with a higher risk of HCC, independent of obesity and established liver cancer risk factors.

Association between different obesity measures and the risk of stroke in the EPIC Spanish cohort.

INTRODUCTION: There is still a scientific debate on the exact role played by obesity on stroke risk. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to analyze the association between obesity, measured by different indices such as body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and a new one called A Body Shape Index (ABSI) and the risk of total and ischemic stroke. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A total of 41,020 subjects (15,490 men and 25,530 women) aged 29-69 years participated in the study. All participants were recruited between 1992 and 1996 and followed up until 2008 to ascertain incident cerebrovascular disease events. Cox proportional hazards models were designed to estimate the relative risk and 95% CI between obesity and cerebrovascular disease incidence. RESULTS: After 13.8 years of follow-up, a total of 674 stroke cases (55.3% in men) were registered (531 ischemic, 79 hemorrhagic, 42 subarachnoid hemorrhage and 22 unspecified). WC fourth quartile (HR 1.95; 95% CI 1.20-3.19) and WHR fourth quartile (HR 1.58; 95% CI 1.12-2.25) were positively associated with total stroke only in men. BMI was not associated with stroke incidence. The new index, ABSI, was significantly associated with total stroke incidence only in men (HR 1.54; 95% CI 1.06-2.23). CONCLUSIONS: Data from the Spanish EPIC cohort study show a strong association of WC and WHR with the relative risk of suffering a stroke only in men, while no associations were found for BMI. It supports the suggestion of other authors of using more than one obesity index in the study of stroke risk prediction.

Smoking, Porphyromonas gingivalis and the immune response to citrullinated autoantigens before the clinical onset of rheumatoid arthritis in a Southern European nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies to citrullinated proteins (ACPA) occur years before RA diagnosis. Porphyromonas gingivalis expresses its own peptidylarginine deiminase (PPAD), and is a proposed aetiological factor for the ACPA response. Smoking is a risk factor for both ACPA-positive RA and periodontitis. We aimed to study the relation of these factors to the risk of RA in a prospective cohort. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study by identifying pre-RA cases in four populations from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition, matched with three controls. Data on smoking and other covariates were obtained from baseline questionnaires. Antibodies to CCP2 and citrullinated peptides from α-enolase, fibrinogen, vimentin and PPAD were measured. Antibodies to arginine gingipain (RgpB) were used as a marker for P.gingivalis infection and validated in a separate cohort of healthy controls and subjects with periodontitis. RESULTS: We studied 103 pre-RA cases. RA development was associated with several ACPA specificities, but not with antibodies to citrullinated PPAD peptides. Antibody levels to RgpB and PPAD peptides were higher in smokers but were not associated with risk of RA or with pre-RA autoimmunity. Former but not current smoking was associated with antibodies to α-enolase (OR 4.06; 95 % CI 1.02, 16.2 versus 0.54; 0.09-3.73) and fibrinogen peptides (OR 4.24; 95 % CI 1.2-14.96 versus 0.58; 0.13-2.70), and later development of RA (OR 2.48; 95 % CI 1.27-4.84 versus 1.57; 0.85-2.93), independent of smoking intensity. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking remains a risk factor for RA well before the clinical onset of disease. In this cohort, P.gingivalis is not associated with pre-RA autoimmunity or risk of RA in an early phase before disease-onset. Antibodies to PPAD peptides are not an early feature of ACPA ontogeny.

Parkinson's Disease Case Ascertainment in the EPIC Cohort: The NeuroEPIC4PD Study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Large epidemiological prospective studies represent an important opportunity for investigating risk factors for rare diseases such as Parkinson's disease (PD). Here we describe the procedures we used for ascertaining PD cases in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study. METHODS: The following three-phase procedure was used: (1) elaboration of a NeuroEPIC4PD template for clinical data collection, (2) identification of all potential PD cases via record linkage and (3) validation of the diagnosis through clinical record revision, in a population of 220,494 subjects recruited in 7 European countries. All cases were labelled with the NeuroEPIC4PD diagnoses of 'definite', 'very likely', 'probable', or 'possible' PD. RESULTS: A total of 881 PD cases were identified, with over 2,741,780 person-years of follow-up (199 definite, 275 very likely, 146 probable, and 261 possible). Of these, 734 were incident cases. The mean age at diagnosis was 67.9 years (SD 9.2) and 458 patients (52.0%) were men. Bradykinesia was the most frequent presenting motor sign (76.5%). Tremor-dominant and akinetic rigid forms of PD were the most common types of PD. A total of 289 patients (32.8%) were dead at the time of the last follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This exercise proved that it is feasible to ascertain PD in large population-based cohort studies and offers a potential framework to be replicated in similar studies.

Derivation and validation of a set of 10-year cardiovascular risk predictive functions in Spain: the FRESCO Study.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a set of functions to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and validate the Framingham-REGICOR function. METHOD: Pooled analysis of 11 population-based Spanish cohorts (1992-2005) with 50,408 eligible participants. Baseline smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), lipid profile, and body mass index were recorded. A ten-year follow-up included re-examinations/telephone contact and cross-linkage with mortality registries. For each sex, two models were fitted for CHD, stroke, and both end-points combined: model A was adjusted for age, smoking, and body mass index and model B for age, smoking, diabetes, SBP, total and HDL cholesterol, and for hypertension treatment by SBP, and age by smoking and by SBP interactions. RESULTS: The 9.3-year median follow-up accumulated 2973 cardiovascular events. The C-statistic improved from model A to model B for CHD (0.66 to 0.71 for men; 0.70 to 0.74 for women) and the combined CHD-stroke end-points (0.68 to 0.71; 0.72 to 0.75, respectively), but not for stroke alone. Framingham-REGICOR had similar C-statistics but overestimated CHD risk. CONCLUSIONS: The new functions accurately estimate 10-year stroke and CHD risk in the adult population of a typical southern European country. The Framingham-REGICOR function provided similar CHD prediction but overestimated risk.

Physical activity and risk of cerebrovascular disease in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Spain study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Large-scale prospective epidemiological data testing the association between physical activity (PA) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) are scarce, particularly in Europe. The objective was to assess the risk of CVD according to PA levels in adults. METHODS: We included a total of 13 576 men and 19 416 women aged 29 to 69 years and participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort in Spain, recruited between 1992 and 1996 and followed-up until 2006 to ascertain incident CVD events. The validated European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition PA questionnaire was used to assess metabolic equivalent × hours per week dedicated to different types of PA. Hazard ratios of CVD by PA levels were estimated using multivariate Cox regression. Extensive baseline data collected on diet, lifestyle habits, medical history, and anthropometry were available to adjust for. RESULTS: A total of 210 transient ischemic attacks and 442 stroke cases (80% ischemic, 10% hemorrhagic, 7% subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 3% mixed or unspecified) were registered after 12.3 years of mean follow-up. Recreational activity was inversely associated with risk of CVD in women but not in men. Women walking for ≥3.5 hours per week were at lower risk of stroke than those who did not engage in regular walking. No significant associations were found for other leisure time activities or vigorous PA with CVD in either sex. CONCLUSIONS: Recreational PA of moderate intensity was inversely associated with stroke incidence in women, whereas PA showed no effect on CVD risk in men. Increasing time dedicated to activities such as walking would be expected to help to reduce the stroke burden in women.

Dietary glycemic index, glycemic load, and digestible carbohydrate intake are not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in eight European countries.

The association of glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) with the risk of type 2 diabetes remains unclear. We investigated associations of dietary GI, GL, and digestible carbohydrate with incident type 2 diabetes. We performed a case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study, including a random subcohort (n = 16,835) and incident type 2 diabetes cases (n = 12,403). The median follow-up time was 12 y. Baseline dietary intakes were assessed using country-specific dietary questionnaires. Country-specific HR were calculated and pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Dietary GI, GL, and digestible carbohydrate in the subcohort were (mean ± SD) 56 ± 4, 127 ± 23, and 226 ± 36 g/d, respectively. After adjustment for confounders, GI and GL were not associated with incident diabetes [HR highest vs. lowest quartile (HR(Q4)) for GI: 1.05 (95% CI = 0.96, 1.16); HR(Q4) for GL: 1.07 (95% CI = 0.95, 1.20)]. Digestible carbohydrate intake was not associated with incident diabetes [HR(Q4): 0.98 (95% CI = 0.86, 1.10)]. In additional analyses, we found that discrepancies in the GI value assignment to foods possibly explain differences in GI associations with diabetes within the same study population. In conclusion, an expansion of the GI tables and systematic GI value assignment to foods may be needed to improve the validity of GI values derived in such studies, after which GI associations may need reevaluation. Our study shows that digestible carbohydrate intake is not associated with diabetes risk and suggests that diabetes risk with high-GI and -GL diets may be more modest than initial studies suggested.

Risk of type 2 diabetes according to traditional and emerging anthropometric indices in Spain, a Mediterranean country with high prevalence of obesity: results from a large-scale prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A proper anthropometric characterisation of T2DM risk is essential for disease prevention and clinical risk assessement. METHODS: Longitudinal study in 37 733 participants (63% women) of the Spanish EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) cohort without prevalent diabetes. Detailed questionnaire information was collected at baseline and anthropometric data gathered following standard procedures. A total of 2513 verified incident T2DM cases occurred after 12.1 years of mean follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios of T2DM by levels of anthropometric variables. RESULTS: Overall and central obesity were independently associated with T2DM risk. BMI showed the strongest association with T2DM in men whereas waist-related indices were stronger independent predictors in women. Waist-to-height ratio revealed the largest area under the ROC curve in men and women, with optimal cut-offs at 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The most discriminative waist circumference (WC) cut-off values were 99.4 cm in men and 90.4 cm in women. Absolute risk of T2DM was higher in men than women for any combination of age, BMI and WC categories, and remained low in normal-waist women. The population risk of T2DM attributable to obesity was 17% in men and 31% in women. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes risk was associated with higher overall and central obesity indices even at normal BMI and WC values. The measurement of waist circumference in the clinical setting is strongly recommended for the evaluation of future T2DM risk in women.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Murcia Region, a southern European Mediterranean area with low cardiovascular risk and high obesity.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is associated with subsequent appearance of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. As compared to other Spanish regions, Murcia (southern Spain) registers increased obesity as well as cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of MS and its components, awareness of obesity as a health risk and associated lifestyles. METHODS: A population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in 2003, covering a sample of 1555 individuals 20 years and over. MS was defined according to the Revised National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (R-ATPIII), International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and Joint Interim Statement (JIS) criteria. Both low (94/80) and high (102/88) waist circumference (WC) thresholds were considered. RESULTS: Prevalence of MS was 27.2% (95%CI: 25.2-29.2), 32.2% (95%CI: 30.1-34.3) and 33.2% (95%CI: 31.2-35.3) according to the R-ATPIII, IDF and JIS94/80 respectively. It increased with age until reaching 52.6% (R-ATPIII) or 60.3% (JIS94/80) among persons aged 70 years and over, and was higher in persons with little or no formal education (51.7% R-ATPIII, 57.3% JIS94/80). The most common risk factors were hypertension (46.6%) and central obesity (40.7% and 66.1% according to high and low WC cut-off points respectively). Although most persons were aware that obesity increased health risks, regular exercise was very unusual (13.0% centrally obese, 27.2% non-centrally obese). Adherence to dietary recommendations was similar among centrally obese and non-centrally obese subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of MS is high in our population, is comparable to that found in northern Europe and varies with the definition used. Adherence to preventive recommendations and to adequate weight promotion is very low. In the absence of a specific treatment for MS, integrated intervention based on a sustained increase in physical activity and changes in diet should be reinforced.