Randomized Evaluation of a Remote Management Program to Improve Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy: The DRIVE Trial.

BACKGROUND: Several SGLT2i (sodium-glucose transport protein 2 inhibitors) and GLP1-RA (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists) reduce cardiovascular events and improve kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes; however, utilization remains low despite guideline recommendations. METHODS: A randomized, remote implementation trial in the Mass General Brigham network enrolled patients with type 2 diabetes with increased cardiovascular or kidney risk. Patients eligible for, but not prescribed, SGLT2i or GLP1-RA were randomly assigned to simultaneous virtual patient education with concurrent prescription of SGLT2i or GLP1-RA (ie, Simultaneous) or 2 months of virtual education followed by medication prescription (ie, Education-First) delivered by a multidisciplinary team driven by nonlicensed navigators and clinical pharmacists who prescribed SGLT2i or GLP1-RA using a standardized treatment algorithm. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with prescriptions for either SGLT2i or GLP1-RA by 6 months. RESULTS: Between March 2021 and December 2022, 200 patients were randomized. The mean age was 66.5 years; 36.5% were female, and 22.0% were non-White. Overall, 30.0% had cardiovascular disease, 5.0% had cerebrovascular disease, and 1.5% had both. Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 77.9 mL/(min‧1.73 m2), and mean urine/albumin creatinine ratio was 88.6 mg/g. After 2 months, 69 of 200 (34.5%) patients received a new prescription for either SGLT2i or GLP1-RA: 53.4% of patients in the Simultaneous arm and 8.3% of patients in the Education-First arm (P<0.001). After 6 months, 128 of 200 (64.0%) received a new prescription: 69.8% of patients in the Simultaneous arm and 56.0% of patients in Education-First (P<0.001). Patient self-report of taking SGLT2i or GLP1-RA within 6 months of trial entry was similarly greater in the Simultaneous versus Education-First arm (69 of 116 [59.5%] versus 37 of 84 [44.0%]; P<0.001) Median time to first prescription was 24 (interquartile range [IQR], 13-50) versus 85 days (IQR, 65-106), respectively (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this randomized trial, a remote, team-based program identifies patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular or kidney risk, provides virtual education, prescribes SGLT2i or GLP1-RA, and improves guideline-directed medical therapy. These findings support greater utilization of virtual team-based approaches to optimize chronic disease management. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT06046560.

Prioritizing Quality Measures in Acute Stroke Care : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association and American Stroke Association (AHA/ASA) endorsed 15 process measures for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) to improve the quality of care. Identifying the highest-value measures could reduce the administrative burden of quality measure adoption while retaining much of the value of quality improvement. OBJECTIVE: To prioritize AHA/ASA-endorsed quality measures for AIS on the basis of health impact and cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: Individual-based stroke simulation model. DATA SOURCES: Published literature. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. patients with incident AIS. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Health care sector. INTERVENTION: Current versus complete (100%) implementation at the population level of quality measures endorsed by the AHA/ASA with sufficient clinical evidence (10 of 15). OUTCOME MEASURES: Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and incremental net health benefits. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Discounted life-years gained from complete implementation would range from 472 (tobacco use counseling) to 34 688 (early carotid imaging) for an annual AIS patient cohort. All AIS quality measures were cost-saving or highly cost-effective by AHA standards (<$50 000 per QALY for high-value care). Early carotid imaging and intravenous tissue plasminogen activator contributed the largest fraction of the total potential value of quality improvement (measured as incremental net health benefit), accounting for 72% of the total value. The top 5 quality measures accounted for 92% of the total potential value. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: A web-based user interface allows for context-specific sensitivity and scenario analyses. LIMITATION: Correlations between quality measures were not incorporated. CONCLUSION: Substantial variation exists in the potential net benefit of quality improvement across AIS quality measures. Benefits were highly concentrated among 5 of 10 measures assessed. Our results can help providers and payers set priorities for quality improvement efforts and value-based payments in AIS care. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Achieving the National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative Voluntary Sugar Reduction Targets in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: High intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education. RESULTS: Achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.

Sacubitril/valsartan vs ACEi/ARB at hospital discharge and 5-year survival in older patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: A decision analysis approach.

BACKGROUND: In clinical trials, sacubitril/valsartan has demonstrated significant survival benefits compared to angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEi/ARB). Whether older patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) benefit as much, due to higher rates of comorbidities, frailty and drug discontinuation, is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with HFrEF between 2016 and 2018, we determined all-cause mortality and HF-readmission rates among patients not given ACEi/ARB or sacubitril/valsartan at hospital discharge, by age. We then used risk reductions from the SOLVD, PARADIGM-HF and PIONEER-HF trials to estimate the benefits of ACEi/ARB and sacubitril/valsartan. We then incorporated age-specific estimates of drug discontinuation from Medicare. A Markov decision process model was used to simulate 5-year survival and estimate number needed to treat, comparing discharge on ACEi/ARB vs sacubitril/valsartan by age. After accounting for drug discontinuation rates, which were surprisingly slightly higher among those discharged on ACEi/ARB (2.3%/month vs 1.9%/month), there was a small but significant survival advantage to discharge on sacubitril/valsartan over 5 years (+0.81 months [95% CI 0.80, 0.81]). The benefit of sacubitril/valsartan over ACEi/ARB did not decrease with increasing age - the number needed to treat among 66 to 74-year-old patients was 84 and among 85+ year-old patients was 67. CONCLUSIONS: Even after accounting for "real world" rates of drug discontinuation, discharge on sacubitril/valsartan after conferred a small, but significant, survival advantage which does not appear to wane with increasing age.

Population health management of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol via a remote, algorithmic, navigator-executed program.

BACKGROUND: Implementation of guideline-directed cholesterol management remains low despite definitive evidence establishing such measures reduce cardiovascular (CV) events, especially in high atherosclerotic CV disease (ASCVD) risk patients. Modern electronic resources now exist that may help improve health care delivery. While electronic medical records (EMR) allow for population health screening, the potential for coupling EMR screening to remotely delivered algorithmic population-based management has been less studied as a way of overcoming barriers to optimal cholesterol management. METHODS: In an academically affiliated healthcare system, using EMR screening, we sought to identify 1,000 high ASCVD risk patients not meeting guideline-directed low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) goals within specific system-affiliated primary care practices. Contacted patients received cholesterol education and were offered a remote, guideline-directed, algorithmic cholesterol management program executed by trained but non-licensed "navigators" under professional supervision. Navigators used telephone, proprietary software and internet resources to facilitate algorithm-driven, guideline-based medication initiation/titration, and laboratory testing until patients achieved LDL-C goals or exited the program. As a clinical effectiveness program for cholesterol guideline implementation, comparison was made to those contacted patients who declined program-based medication management, and received education only, along with their usual care. RESULTS: 1021 patients falling into guideline-defined high ASCVD risk groups warranting statin therapy (ASCVD, type 2 diabetes, LDL ≥ 190 mg/dL, calculated 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%) and not achieving guideline-defined target LDL-C levels and/or therapy were identified and contacted. Among the 698 such patients who opted for program medication management, significant LDL-C reductions occurred in the total cohort (mean -65.4 mg/dL, 45% decrease), and each high ASCVD risk subgroup: ASCVD (-57.2 mg/dL, -48.0%); diabetes mellitus (-53.1 mg/dL, -40.0%); severe hypercholesterolemia (-76.3 mg/dL, -45.7%); elevated ASCVD 10-year risk (-62.8 mg/dL, -41.1%) (P<0.001 for all), without any significant complications. Among 20% of participants with reported statin intolerance, average LDL-C decreased from baseline 143 mg/dL to 85 mg/dL using mainly statins and ezetimibe, with limited PCSK9 inhibitor use. In comparison, eligible high ASCVD risk patients who were contacted but opted for education only, a 17% LDL-C decrease occurred over a similar timeframe, with 80% remaining with an LDL-C over 100 mg/dL. CONCLUSIONS: A remote, algorithm-driven, navigator-executed cholesterol management program successfully identified high ASCVD risk undertreated patients using EMR screening and was associated with significantly improved guideline-directed LDL-C control, supporting this approach as a novel strategy for improving health care access and delivery.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Volume, Tiered, and Absolute Sugar Content Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policies in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes are a rapidly growing policy tool and can be based on absolute volume, sugar content tiers, or absolute sugar content. Yet, their comparative health and economic impacts have not been quantified, in particular, tiered or sugar content taxes that provide industry incentives for sugar reduction. METHODS: We estimated incremental changes in diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, quality-adjusted life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of 3 sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs in the United States, on the basis of (1) volume ($0.01/oz), (2) tiers (<5 g of added sugar/8 oz: no tax; 5-20 g/8 oz: $0.01/oz; and >20 g/8 oz: $0.02/oz), and (3) absolute sugar content ($0.01 per teaspoon added sugar), each compared with a base case of modest ongoing voluntary industry reformulation. A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, policy effects and sugar-sweetened beverage-related diseases from meta-analyses, and industry reformulation and health-related costs from established sources. RESULTS: Over a lifetime, the volume, tiered, and absolute sugar content taxes would generate $80.4 billion, $142 billion, and $41.7 billion in tax revenue, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, the volume tax would prevent 850 000 cardiovascular disease (95% CI, 836 000-864 000) and 269 000 diabetes mellitus (265 000-274 000) cases, gain 2.44 million quality-adjusted life-years (2.40-2.48), and save $53.2 billion net costs (52.3-54.1). Health gains and savings were approximately doubled for the tiered and absolute sugar content taxes. Results were robust for societal and government perspectives, at 10 years follow-up, and with lower (50%) tax pass-through. Health gains were largest in young adults, blacks and Hispanics, and lower-income Americans. CONCLUSIONS: All sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs would generate substantial health gains and savings. Tiered and absolute sugar content taxes should be considered and evaluated for maximal potential gains.

Cardiometabolic disease costs associated with suboptimal diet in the United States: A cost analysis based on a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Poor diet is a leading risk factor for cardiometabolic disease (CMD) in the United States, but its economic costs are unknown. We sought to estimate the cost associated with suboptimal diet in the US. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A validated microsimulation model (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends [CVD PREDICT]) was used to estimate annual cardiovascular disease (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, angina, and stroke) and type 2 diabetes costs associated with suboptimal intake of 10 food groups (fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds, whole grains, unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, polyunsaturated fats, seafood omega-3 fats, sodium). A representative US population sample of individuals aged 35-85 years was created using weighted sampling from National Health And Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2009-2012 cycles. Estimates were stratified by cost type (acute, chronic, drug), sex, age, race, education, BMI, and health insurance. Annual diet-related CMD costs were $301/person (95% CI $287-$316). This translates to $50.4 billion in CMD costs (18.2% of total) for the whole population, of which 84.3% are attributed to acute care ($42.6 billion). The largest annual per capita costs are attributed to low consumption of nuts/seeds ($81; 95% CI $74-$86) and seafood omega-3 fats ($76; 95% CI $70-$83), and the lowest are attributed to high consumption of red meat ($3; 95% CI $2.8-$3.5) and polyunsaturated fats ($20; 95% CI $19-$22). Individual costs are highest for men ($380), those aged ≥65 years ($408), blacks ($320), the less educated ($392), and those with Medicare ($481) or dual-eligible ($536) insurance coverage. A limitation of our study is that dietary intake data were assessed from 24-hour dietary recall, which may not fully capture a diet over a person's life span and is subject to measurement errors. CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal diet of 10 dietary factors accounts for 18.2% of all ischemic heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes costs in the US, highlighting that timely implementation of diet policies could address these health and economic burdens.

Cost-effectiveness of financial incentives for improving diet and health through Medicare and Medicaid: A microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: Economic incentives through health insurance may promote healthier behaviors. Little is known about health and economic impacts of incentivizing diet, a leading risk factor for diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD), through Medicare and Medicaid. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) estimated CVD and diabetes cases prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), health-related costs (formal healthcare, informal healthcare, and lost-productivity costs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of two policy scenarios for adults within Medicare and Medicaid, compared to a base case of no new intervention: (1) 30% subsidy on fruits and vegetables ("F&V incentive") and (2) 30% subsidy on broader healthful foods including F&V, whole grains, nuts/seeds, seafood, and plant oils ("healthy food incentive"). Inputs included national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2014, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Overall, 82 million adults (35-80 years old) were on Medicare and/or Medicaid. The mean (SD) age was 68.1 (11.4) years, 56.2% were female, and 25.5% were non-whites. Health and cost impacts were simulated over the lifetime of current Medicare and Medicaid participants (average simulated years = 18.3 years). The F&V incentive was estimated to prevent 1.93 million CVD events, gain 4.64 million QALYs, and save $39.7 billion in formal healthcare costs. For the healthy food incentive, corresponding gains were 3.28 million CVD and 0.12 million diabetes cases prevented, 8.40 million QALYs gained, and $100.2 billion in formal healthcare costs saved, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, both scenarios were cost-effective at 5 years and beyond, with lifetime ICERs of $18,184/QALY (F&V incentive) and $13,194/QALY (healthy food incentive). From a societal perspective including informal healthcare costs and lost productivity, respective ICERs were $14,576/QALY and $9,497/QALY. Results were robust in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and a range of one-way sensitivity and subgroup analyses, including by different durations of the intervention (5, 10, and 20 years and lifetime), food subsidy levels (20%, 50%), insurance groups (Medicare, Medicaid, and dual-eligible), and beneficiary characteristics within each insurance group (age, race/ethnicity, education, income, and Supplemental Nutrition Assistant Program [SNAP] status). Simulation studies such as this one provide quantitative estimates of benefits and uncertainty but cannot directly prove health and economic impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Economic incentives for healthier foods through Medicare and Medicaid could generate substantial health gains and be highly cost-effective.

Modeling the cost effectiveness and budgetary impact of Polypills for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in the United States.

BACKGROUND: There is underutilization of appropriate medications for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: Usual care (UC) was compared to polypill-based care with 3 versions using a validated micro-simulation model in the NHANES population with prior CVD. UC included individual prescription of up to 4 drug classes (antiplatelet agents, beta-blockers, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone inhibitors and statins). The polypills modeled were aspirin 81 mg, atenolol 50 mg, ramipril 5 mg, and either simvastatin 40 mg (Polypill I), atorvastatin 80 mg (Polypill II), or rosuvastatin 40 mg (Polypill III). Baseline medication use and adherence came from United Healthcare claims data. RESULTS: When compared to UC, there were annual reductions of 130,000 to 178,000 myocardial infarctions and 54,000 to 74,000 strokes using Polypill I and II, respectively. From a health sector perspective, in incremental analysis the ICERs for Polypill I and II were $20,073/QALY and $21,818/QALY respectively; Polypill III was dominated but had a similar cost-effectiveness ratio to Polypill II when compared directly to usual care. From a societal perspective, Polypill II was cost-saving and dominated all strategies. Over a 5-year period, those taking Polypill I and II compared to UC saved approximately $12 and $6 per-patient-per-year alive, respectively. Polypill II was the preferred strategy in 98% of runs at a willingness to pay of $50,000 in the probability sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Use of a polypill has a favorable cost profile for secondary CVD prevention in the United States. Reductions in CVD-related healthcare costs outweighed medication cost increases on a per-patient-per-year basis, suggesting that a polypill would be economically advantageous to both patients and payers.

Multimorbidity and care for hypertension, diabetes and HIV among older adults in rural South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To examine how multimorbidity might affect progression along the continuum of care among older adults with hypertension, diabetes and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in rural South Africa. METHODS: We analysed data from 4447 people aged 40 years or older who were enrolled in a longitudinal study in Agincourt sub-district. Household-based interviews were completed between November 2014 and November 2015. For hypertension and diabetes (2813 and 512 people, respectively), we defined concordant conditions as other cardiometabolic conditions, and discordant conditions as mental disorders or HIV infection. For HIV infection (1027 people) we defined any other conditions as discordant. Regression models were fitted to assess the relationship between the type of multimorbidity and progression along the care continuum and the likelihood of patients being in each stage of care for the index condition (four stages from testing to treatment). FINDINGS: People with hypertension or diabetes plus other cardiometabolic conditions were more like to progress through the care continuum for the index condition than those without cardiometabolic conditions (relative risk, RR: 1.14, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.09-1.20, and RR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.52-3.26, respectively). Having discordant comorbidity was associated with greater progression in care for those with hypertension but not diabetes. Those with HIV infection plus cardiometabolic conditions had less progress in the stages of care compared with those without such conditions (RR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.80-0.92). CONCLUSION: Patients with concordant conditions were more likely to progress further along the care continuum, while those with discordant multimorbidity tended not to progress beyond diagnosis.

ACC/AHA Special Report: Clinical Practice Guideline Implementation Strategies: A Summary of Systematic Reviews by the NHLBI Implementation Science Work Group: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: In 2008, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened an Implementation Science Work Group to assess evidence-based strategies for effectively implementing clinical practice guidelines. This was part of a larger effort to update existing clinical practice guidelines on cholesterol, blood pressure, and overweight/obesity. OBJECTIVES: Review evidence from the published implementation science literature and identify effective or promising strategies to enhance the adoption and implementation of clinical practice guidelines. METHODS: This systematic review was conducted on 4 critical questions, each focusing on the adoption and effectiveness of 4 intervention strategies: (1) reminders, (2) educational outreach visits, (3) audit and feedback, and (4) provider incentives. A scoping review of the Rx for Change database of systematic reviews was used to identify promising guideline implementation interventions aimed at providers. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were developed a priori for each question, and the published literature was initially searched up to 2012, and then updated with a supplemental search to 2015. Two independent reviewers screened the returned citations to identify relevant reviews and rated the quality of each included review. RESULTS: Audit and feedback and educational outreach visits were generally effective in improving both process of care (15 of 21 reviews and 12 of 13 reviews, respectively) and clinical outcomes (7 of 12 reviews and 3 of 5 reviews, respectively). Provider incentives showed mixed effectiveness for improving both process of care (3 of 4 reviews) and clinical outcomes (3 reviews equally distributed between generally effective, mixed, and generally ineffective). Reminders showed mixed effectiveness for improving process of care outcomes (27 reviews with 11 mixed and 3 generally ineffective results) and were generally ineffective for clinical outcomes (18 reviews with 6 mixed and 9 generally ineffective results). Educational outreach visits (2 of 2 reviews), reminders (3 of 4 reviews), and provider incentives (1 of 1 review) were generally effective for cost reduction. Educational outreach visits (1 of 1 review) and provider incentives (1 of 1 review) were also generally effective for cost-effectiveness outcomes. Barriers to clinician adoption or adherence to guidelines included time constraints (8 reviews/overviews); limited staffing resources (2 overviews); timing (5 reviews/overviews); clinician skepticism (5 reviews/overviews); clinician knowledge of guidelines (4 reviews/overviews); and higher age of the clinician (1 overview). Facilitating factors included guideline characteristics such as format, resources, and end-user involvement (6 reviews/overviews); involving stakeholders (5 reviews/overviews); leadership support (5 reviews/overviews); scope of implementation (5 reviews/overviews); organizational culture such as multidisciplinary teams and low-baseline adherence (9 reviews/overviews); and electronic guidelines systems (3 reviews). CONCLUSION: The strategies of audit and feedback and educational outreach visits were generally effective in improving both process of care and clinical outcomes. Reminders and provider incentives showed mixed effectiveness, or were generally ineffective. No general conclusion could be reached about cost effectiveness, because of limitations in the evidence. Important gaps exist in the evidence on effectiveness of implementation interventions, especially regarding clinical outcomes, cost effectiveness and contextual issues affecting successful implementation.

Geographic and sociodemographic variation of cardiovascular disease risk in India: A cross-sectional study of 797,540 adults.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in India. Yet, evidence on the CVD risk of India's population is limited. To inform health system planning and effective targeting of interventions, this study aimed to determine how CVD risk-and the factors that determine risk-varies among states in India, by rural-urban location, and by individual-level sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used 2 large household surveys carried out between 2012 and 2014, which included a sample of 797,540 adults aged 30 to 74 years across India. The main outcome variable was the predicted 10-year risk of a CVD event as calculated with the Framingham risk score. The Harvard-NHANES, Globorisk, and WHO-ISH scores were used in secondary analyses. CVD risk and the prevalence of CVD risk factors were examined by state, rural-urban residence, age, sex, household wealth, and education. Mean CVD risk varied from 13.2% (95% CI: 12.7%-13.6%) in Jharkhand to 19.5% (95% CI: 19.1%-19.9%) in Kerala. CVD risk tended to be highest in North, Northeast, and South India. District-level wealth quintile (based on median household wealth in a district) and urbanization were both positively associated with CVD risk. Similarly, household wealth quintile and living in an urban area were positively associated with CVD risk among both sexes, but the associations were stronger among women than men. Smoking was more prevalent in poorer household wealth quintiles and in rural areas, whereas body mass index, high blood glucose, and systolic blood pressure were positively associated with household wealth and urban location. Men had a substantially higher (age-standardized) smoking prevalence (26.2% [95% CI: 25.7%-26.7%] versus 1.8% [95% CI: 1.7%-1.9%]) and mean systolic blood pressure (126.9 mm Hg [95% CI: 126.7-127.1] versus 124.3 mm Hg [95% CI: 124.1-124.5]) than women. Important limitations of this analysis are the high proportion of missing values (27.1%) in the main outcome variable, assessment of diabetes through a 1-time capillary blood glucose measurement, and the inability to exclude participants with a current or previous CVD event. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified substantial variation in CVD risk among states and sociodemographic groups in India-findings that can facilitate effective targeting of CVD programs to those most at risk and most in need. While the CVD risk scores used have not been validated in South Asian populations, the patterns of variation in CVD risk among the Indian population were similar across all 4 risk scoring systems.

The Heart of 25 by 25: Achieving the Goal of Reducing Global and Regional Premature Deaths From Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke: A Modeling Study From the American Heart Association and World Heart Federation.

In 2011, the United Nations set key targets to reach by 2025 to reduce the risk of premature noncommunicable disease death by 25% by 2025. With cardiovascular disease being the largest contributor to global mortality, accounting for nearly half of the 36 million annual noncommunicable disease deaths, achieving the 2025 goal requires that cardiovascular disease and its risk factors be aggressively addressed. The Global Cardiovascular Disease Taskforce, comprising the World Heart Federation, American Heart Association, American College of Cardiology Foundation, European Heart Network, and European Society of Cardiology, with expanded representation from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, along with global cardiovascular disease experts, disseminates information and approaches to reach the United Nations 2025 targets. The writing committee, which reflects Global Cardiovascular Disease Taskforce membership, engaged the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, to develop region-specific estimates of premature cardiovascular mortality in 2025 based on various scenarios. Results show that >5 million premature CVD deaths among men and 2.8 million among women are projected worldwide by 2025, which can be reduced to 3.5 million and 2.2 million, respectively, if risk factor targets for blood pressure, tobacco use, diabetes mellitus, and obesity are achieved. However, global risk factor targets have various effects, depending on region. For most regions, United Nations targets for reducing systolic blood pressure and tobacco use have more substantial effects on future scenarios compared with maintaining current levels of body mass index and fasting plasma glucose. However, preventing increases in body mass index has the largest effect in some high-income countries. An approach achieving reductions in multiple risk factors has the largest impact for almost all regions. Achieving these goals can be accomplished only if countries set priorities, implement cost-effective population wide strategies, and collaborate in public-private partnerships across multiple sectors.

Cardiometabolic risk in a population of older adults with multiple co-morbidities in rural south africa: the HAALSI (Health and Aging in Africa: longitudinal studies of INDEPTH communities) study.

BACKGROUND: A consequence of the widespread uptake of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) is that the older South African population will experience an increase in life expectancy, increasing their risk for cardiometabolic diseases (CMD), and its risk factors. The long-term interactions between HIV infection, treatment, and CMD remain to be elucidated in the African population. The HAALSI cohort was established to investigate the impact of these interactions on CMD morbidity and mortality among middle-aged and older adults. METHODS: We recruited randomly selected adults aged 40 or older residing in the rural Agincourt sub-district in Mpumalanga Province. In-person interviews were conducted to collect baseline household and socioeconomic data, self-reported health, anthropometric measures, blood pressure, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), HbA1c, HIV-status, and point-of-care glucose and lipid levels. RESULTS: Five thousand fifty nine persons (46.4% male) were enrolled with a mean age of 61.7 ± 13.06 years. Waist-to-hip ratio was high for men and women (0.92 ± 0.08 vs. 0.89 ± 0.08), with 70% of women and 44% of men being overweight or obese. Blood pressure was similar for men and women with a combined hypertension prevalence of 58.4% and statistically significant increases were observed with increasing age. High total cholesterol prevalence in women was twice that observed for men (8.5 vs. 4.1%). The prevalence of self-reported CMD conditions was higher among women, except for myocardial infarction, and women had a statistically significantly higher prevalence of angina (10.82 vs. 6.97%) using Rose Criteria. The HIV- persons were significantly more likely to have hypertension, diabetes, or be overweight or obese than HIV+ persons. Approximately 56% of the cohort had at least 2 measured or self-reported clinical co-morbidities, with HIV+ persons having a consistently lower prevalence of co-morbidities compared to those without HIV. Absolute 10-year risk cardiovascular risk scores ranged from 7.7-9.7% for women and from 12.5-15.3% for men, depending on the risk score equations used. CONCLUSIONS: This cohort has high CMD risk based on both traditional risk factors and novel markers like hsCRP. Longitudinal follow-up of the cohort will allow us to determine the long-term impact of increased lifespan in a population with both high HIV infection and CMD risk.

Office blood pressure measurements with oscillometric devices in adolescents: a comparison with home blood pressure.

PURPOSE: Compare multiple in office BP measurements in adolescents using an oscillometric device with out-of-office blood pressure measurements (home blood pressure monitoring - HBPM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Office measurements were performed with validated semi-automatic devices twice (3 minutes interval) in two different moments (1 week apart), with a total of four readings. These BP readings were named R1, R2, R3 and R4 (following the sequence they were performed), FDM (mean of two readings on first day) and SDM (mean of two readings on second day) and SRM (R2-R4 means). The HBPM protocol included two day-time and two evening-time measurements over 6 days. RESULTS: A total of 1024 students between 12 and 17 years were included (mean age 14.68 years; 52.4% females). The mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) values of R2, SDM and SRM were similar to HBPM values. Regarding diastolic blood pressure (DBP) HBPM value was different than R4. High SBP and DBP correlation coefficients with HBPM values were found for R2, SDM and SRM values. CONCLUSION: The second office BP measurement performed with an oscilometric device in adolescents was comparable to HBPM values, suggesting that two office readings might be suitable to rule out hypertension in this age group.

25 by 25: Achieving Global Reduction in Cardiovascular Mortality.

Four non-communicable diseases-cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes mellitus, and cancer-account for over 60 % of all deaths globally. In recognition of this significant epidemic, the United Nations set forth a target of reducing the four major NCDs by 25 % by 2025. Cardiovascular disease alone represents half of these deaths and is the leading cause of death globally, representing as much as 60 % of all deaths in regions such as Eastern Europe. In response, the WHO set specific targets on conditions and risk factors and changes in the health systems structure in order to achieve the goals. The focus was set on lifestyle risk factors-physical activity, salt-intake, and tobacco-and established conditions-obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. Health system efforts to improve medical treatment of high risk are encouraged. Efforts to achieve the goal are being promoted by leading international CVD organizations.

Cost-effectiveness of 10-Year Risk Thresholds for Initiation of Statin Therapy for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.

IMPORTANCE: The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) cholesterol treatment guidelines have wide-scale implications for treating adults without history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) with statins. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of various 10-year ASCVD risk thresholds that could be used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Microsimulation model, including lifetime time horizon, US societal perspective, 3% discount rate for costs, and health outcomes. In the model, hypothetical individuals from a representative US population aged 40 to 75 years received statin treatment, experienced ASCVD events, and died from ASCVD-related or non-ASCVD-related causes based on ASCVD natural history and statin treatment parameters. Data sources for model parameters included National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, large clinical trials and meta-analyses for statin benefits and treatment, and other published sources. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Estimated ASCVD events prevented and incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: In the base-case scenario, the current ASCVD threshold of 7.5% or higher, which was estimated to be associated with 48% of adults treated with statins, had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $37,000/QALY compared with a 10% or higher threshold. More lenient ASCVD thresholds of 4.0% or higher (61% of adults treated) and 3.0% or higher (67% of adults treated) had ICERs of $81,000/QALY and $140,000/QALY, respectively. Shifting from a 7.5% or higher ASCVD risk threshold to a 3.0% or higher ASCVD risk threshold was estimated to be associated with an additional 161,560 cardiovascular disease events averted. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to changes in the disutility associated with taking a pill daily, statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there was a higher than 93% chance that the optimal ASCVD threshold was 5.0% or lower using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this microsimulation model of US adults aged 45 to 75 years [corrected], the current 10-year ASCVD risk threshold (≥7.5% risk threshold) used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines has an acceptable cost-effectiveness profile (ICER, $37,000/QALY), but more lenient ASCVD thresholds would be optimal using cost-effectiveness thresholds of $100,000/QALY (≥4.0% risk threshold) or $150,000/QALY (≥3.0% risk threshold). The optimal ASCVD threshold was sensitive to patient preferences for taking a pill daily, changes to statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes.

Hypertension education and adherence in South Africa: a cost-effectiveness analysis of community health workers.

BACKGROUND: To determine whether training community health workers (CHWs) about hypertension in order to improve adherence to medications is a cost-effective intervention among community members in South Africa. METHODS: We used an established Markov model with age-varying probabilities of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events to assess the benefits and costs of using CHW home visits to increase hypertension adherence for individuals with hypertension and aged 25-74 in South Africa. Subjects considered for CHW intervention were those with a previous diagnosis of hypertension and on medications but who had not achieved control of their blood pressure. We report our results in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in US dollars per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. RESULTS: The annual cost of the CHW intervention is about $8 per patient. This would lead to over a 2% reduction in CVD events over a life-time and decrease DALY burden. Due to reductions in non-fatal CVD events, lifetime costs are only $6.56 per patient. The CHW intervention leads to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $320/DALY averted. At an annual cost of $6.50 or if the blood pressure reduction is 5 mmHg or greater per patient the intervention is cost-saving. CONCLUSIONS: Additional training for CHWs on hypertension management could be a cost-effective strategy for CVD in South Africa and a very good purchase according to World Health Organization (WHO) standards. The intervention could also lead to reduced visits at the health centres freeing up more time for new patients or reducing the burden of an overworked staff at many facilities.