[Epidemiological characteristics of mumps among people aged 0-14 in Jiangxi Province, 2015-2022].

Objective: To analyze the epidemic characteristics of mumps in people aged 0-14 years in Jiangxi Province and the vaccination situation of mumps-containing vaccines (including mumps vaccines) from 2015 to 2022 to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of mumps epidemic in Jiangxi Province. Methods: The mumps epidemic situation and mumps vaccination data in Jiangxi Province from 2015 to 2022 were obtained from Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and Jiangxi Immunization Program Information System and were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological methods. The chi-square test, cluster analysis, and Cochran-Armitage trend test were used for statistical analysis. Results: From 2015 to 2022, a total of 40 734 cases of mumps were reported in people aged 0-14 in Jiangxi Province, with an annual average reported incidence rate of 53.69/100 000, and the peak of incidence occurred in aged 6-7 years group, and the reported incidence rate was 86.43/100 000. The high incidence seasons in 2015-2019 were summer and winter, and there was no significant high incidence season in 2020-2022. Mumps outbreaks mainly occurred in Shangrao, Ganzhou, and Ji'an, and the outbreak sites were mainly reported primary schools. From 2015 to 2019, the 1-year group was the primary age group for vaccination against mumps, while from 2020 to 2021, it was 0 and 1-year groups. Conclusions: From 2015 to 2022, the incidence of mumps in the population aged 0-14 in Jiangxi Province showed a downward trend, and the peak of incidence occurred in age group 6-7 years. It is suggested to continue to strengthen the coverage rate of 2 doses of mumps vaccination for school-age children and, simultaneously, strengthen the monitoring and prevention of mumps in key places to avoid outbreaks.

[Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict and analyze the incidence trend of mumps in Jiangxi Province].

Objective: To predict and analyze the incidence trend of mumps using the Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) in Jiangxi Province. Methods: The ARIMA was used to model the number of mumps cases per month from 2015 to 2019 in Jiangxi Province. The number of mumps cases in 12 months was predicted and was compared with the actual reported cases in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively. Results: The optimal model was ARIMA (0,2,1)(1,2,0)12. The predicted number of cases was significantly higher than that reported in 2020, 2021 and 2022. The number of reported cases of mumps in 2020, 2021, and 2022 decreased by 54.02%, 63.40%, and 66.09% compared with the forecast. Conclusions: From 2020 to 2022, the reported incidence of mumps in Jiangxi Province was significantly lower than the predicted incidence. Considering that it was related to non-drug intervention measures and changes in immunization strategies, it was suggested to strengthen mumps surveillance further to better cope with the epidemic situation of mumps.