Mapping the Evolutionary Space of SARS-CoV-2 Variants to Anticipate Emergence of Subvariants Resistant to COVID-19 Therapeutics.

New sublineages of SARS-CoV-2 variants-of-concern (VOCs) continuously emerge with mutations in the spike glycoprotein. In most cases, the sublineage-defining mutations vary between the VOCs. It is unclear whether these differences reflect lineage-specific likelihoods for mutations at each spike position or the stochastic nature of their appearance. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 lineages have distinct evolutionary spaces (a probabilistic definition of the sequence states that can be occupied by expanding virus subpopulations). This space can be accurately inferred from the patterns of amino acid variability at the whole-protein level. Robust networks of co-variable sites identify the highest-likelihood mutations in new VOC sublineages and predict remarkably well the emergence of subvariants with resistance mutations to COVID-19 therapeutics. Our studies reveal the contribution of low frequency variant patterns at heterologous sites across the protein to accurate prediction of the changes at each position of interest.

Commonly Elicited Antibodies against the Base of the HIV-1 Env Trimer Guide the Population-Level Evolution of a Structure-Regulating Region in gp41.

The antibody response against the HIV-1 envelope glycoproteins (Envs) guides evolution of this protein within each host. Whether antibodies with similar target specificities are elicited in different individuals and affect the population-level evolution of Env is poorly understood. To address this question, we analyzed properties of emerging variants in the gp41 fusion peptide-proximal region (FPPR) that exhibit distinct evolutionary patterns in HIV-1 clade B. For positions 534, 536, and 539 in the FPPR, alanine was the major emerging variant. However, 534A and 536A show a constant frequency in the population between 1979 and 2016, whereas 539A is gradually increasing. To understand the basis for these differences, we introduced alanine substitutions in the FPPR of primary HIV-1 strains and examined their functional and antigenic properties. Evolutionary patterns could not be explained by fusion competence or structural stability of the emerging variants. Instead, 534A and 536A exhibited modest but significant increases in sensitivity to antibodies against the membrane-proximal external region (MPER) and gp120-gp41 interface. These Envs were also more sensitive to poorly neutralizing sera from HIV-1-infected individuals than the clade ancestral form or 539A variant. Competition binding assays confirmed for all sera tested the presence of antibodies against the base of the Env trimer that compete with monoclonal antibodies targeting the MPER and gp120-gp41 interface. Our findings suggest that weakly neutralizing antibodies against the trimer base are commonly elicited; they do not exert catastrophic population size reduction effects on emerging variants but, instead, determine their set point frequencies in the population and historical patterns of change. IMPORTANCE Infection by HIV-1 elicits formation of antibodies that target the viral Env proteins and can inactivate the virus. The specific targets of these antibodies vary among infected individuals. It is unclear whether some target specificities are shared among the antibody responses of different individuals. We observed that antibodies against the base of the Env protein are commonly elicited during infection. The selective pressure applied by such antibodies is weak. As a result, they do not completely eliminate the sensitive forms of the virus from the population, but maintain their frequency at a low level that has not increased since the beginning of the AIDS pandemic. Interestingly, the changes in Env do not occur at the sites targeted by the antibodies, but at a distinct region of Env, the fusion peptide-proximal region, which regulates their exposure.

The High Content of Fructose in Human Semen Competitively Inhibits Broad and Potent Antivirals That Target High-Mannose Glycans.

Semen is the primary transmission vehicle for various pathogenic viruses. Initial steps of transmission, including cell attachment and entry, likely occur in the presence of semen. However, the unstable nature of human seminal plasma and its toxic effects on cells in culture limit the ability to study in vitro virus infection and inhibition in this medium. We found that whole semen significantly reduces the potency of antibodies and microbicides that target glycans on the envelope glycoproteins (Envs) of HIV-1. The extraordinarily high concentration of the monosaccharide fructose in semen contributes significantly to the effect by competitively inhibiting the binding of ligands to α1,2-linked mannose residues on Env. Infection and inhibition in whole human seminal plasma are accurately mimicked by a stable synthetic simulant of seminal fluid that we formulated. Our findings indicate that, in addition to the protein content of biological secretions, their small-solute composition impacts the potency of antiviral microbicides and mucosal antibodies.IMPORTANCE Biological secretions allow viruses to spread between individuals. Each type of secretion has a unique composition of proteins, salts, and sugars, which can affect the infectivity potential of the virus and inhibition of this process. Here, we describe HIV-1 infection and inhibition in whole human seminal plasma and a synthetic simulant that we formulated. We discovered that the sugar fructose in semen decreases the activity of a broad and potent class of antiviral agents that target mannose sugars on the envelope protein of HIV-1. This effect of semen fructose likely reduces the efficacy of such inhibitors to prevent the sexual transmission of HIV-1. Our findings suggest that the preclinical evaluation of microbicides and vaccine-elicited antibodies will be improved by their in vitro assessment in synthetic formulations that simulate the effects of semen on HIV-1 infection and inhibition.

Influence of the transcription factor ABI5 on growth and development in Arabidopsis.

ABA-insensitive 5 (ABI5) belongs to the basic leucine zipper class of transcription factors and is named for being the fifth identified Arabidopsis mutant unresponsive to ABA. To understand the influence of ABI5 in its active state on downstream gene expression and plant growth and development, we overexpressed the full-length ABI5 (A.t.MX-4) and the active forms of ABI5 with deleted transcriptional repression domains (A.t.MX-1, A.t.MX-2, and A.t.MX-3). Compared with the wild type, A.t.MX-1, A.t.MX-2, and A.t.MX-3 exhibited an increase in rosette leaf number and size, earlier flowering, increased thousand-seed weight, and significantly enhanced drought resistance. Thirty-five upregulated/downregulated proteins in the A.t.MX-1 were identified by proteomic analysis, and these proteins were involved in ABA biosynthesis and degradation, abiotic stress, fatty acid synthesis, and energy metabolism. These proteins participate in the regulation of plant drought resistance, flowering timing, and seed size at the levels of transcription and post-translational modification.

A classification algorithm based on dynamic ensemble selection to predict mutational patterns of the envelope protein in HIV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutics against the envelope (Env) proteins of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) effectively reduce viral loads in patients. However, due to mutations, new therapy-resistant Env variants frequently emerge. The sites of mutations on Env that appear in each patient are considered random and unpredictable. Here we developed an algorithm to estimate for each patient the mutational state of each position based on the mutational state of adjacent positions on the three-dimensional structure of the protein. METHODS: We developed a dynamic ensemble selection algorithm designated k-best classifiers. It identifies the best classifiers within the neighborhood of a new observation and applies them to predict the variability state of each observation. To evaluate the algorithm, we applied amino acid sequences of Envs from 300 HIV-1-infected individuals (at least six sequences per patient). For each patient, amino acid variability values at all Env positions were mapped onto the three-dimensional structure of the protein. Then, the variability state of each position was estimated by the variability at adjacent positions of the protein. RESULTS: The proposed algorithm showed higher performance than the base learner and a panel of classification algorithms. The mutational state of positions in the high-mannose patch and CD4-binding site of Env, which are targeted by multiple therapeutics, was predicted well. Importantly, the algorithm outperformed other classification techniques for predicting the variability state at multi-position footprints of therapeutics on Env. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed algorithm applies a dynamic classifier-scoring approach that increases its performance relative to other classification methods. Better understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of variability across Env may lead to new treatment strategies that are tailored to the unique mutational patterns of each patient. More generally, we propose the algorithm as a new high-performance dynamic ensemble selection technique.

Mutability Patterns Across the Spike Glycoprotein Reveal the Diverging and Lineage-specific Evolutionary Space of SARS-CoV-2.

Mutations in the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 allow the virus to probe the sequence space in search of higher-fitness states. New sublineages of SARS-CoV-2 variants-of-concern (VOCs) continuously emerge with such mutations. Interestingly, the sites of mutation in these sublineages vary between the VOCs. Whether such differences reflect the random nature of mutation appearance or distinct evolutionary spaces of spike in the VOCs is unclear. Here we show that each position of spike has a lineage-specific likelihood for mutations to appear and dominate descendent sublineages. This likelihood can be accurately estimated from the lineage-specific mutational profile of spike at a protein-wide level. The mutability environment of each position, including adjacent sites on the protein structure and neighboring sites on the network of comutability, accurately forecast changes in descendent sublineages. Mapping of imminent changes within the VOCs can contribute to the design of immunogens and therapeutics that address future forms of SARS-CoV-2.

Limited Variation between SARS-CoV-2-Infected Individuals in Domain Specificity and Relative Potency of the Antibody Response against the Spike Glycoprotein.

The spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is arranged as a trimer on the virus surface, composed of three S1 and three S2 subunits. Infected and vaccinated individuals generate antibodies against spike, which can neutralize the virus. Most antibodies target the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and N-terminal domain (NTD) of S1; however, antibodies against other regions of spike have also been isolated. The interhost variability in domain specificity and relative neutralization efficacy of the antibodies is still poorly characterized. To this end, we tested serum and plasma samples collected from 85 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) convalescent subjects. Samples were analyzed using seven immunoassays that employ different domains, subunits, and oligomeric forms of spike to capture the antibodies. Samples were also tested for their neutralization of pseudovirus containing SARS-CoV-2 spike and of replication-competent SARS-CoV-2. While the total amount of anti-spike antibodies produced varied among convalescent subjects, we observed an unexpectedly fixed ratio of RBD- to NTD-targeting antibodies. The relative potency of the response (defined as the measured neutralization efficacy relative to the total level of spike-targeting antibodies) also exhibited limited variation between subjects and was not associated with the overall amount of antispike antibodies produced. These studies suggest that host-to-host variation in the polyclonal response elicited against SARS-CoV-2 spike in early pandemic subjects is primarily limited to the quantity of antibodies generated rather than their domain specificity or relative neutralization potency. IMPORTANCE Infection by SARS-CoV-2 elicits antibodies against various domains of the spike protein, including the RBD and NTD of subunit S1 and against subunit S2. The antibody responses of different infected individuals exhibit different efficacies to inactivate (neutralize) the virus. Here, we show that the observed variation in the neutralizing activity of the antibody responses in COVID-19 convalescent subjects is caused by differences in the amounts of antibodies rather than their recognition properties or the potency of their antiviral activity. These findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccine strategies that focus on enhancing the overall level of the antibodies will likely elicit a more uniformly efficacious protective response.

Key Positions of HIV-1 Env and Signatures of Vaccine Efficacy Show Gradual Reduction of Population Founder Effects at the Clade and Regional Levels.

HIV-1 group M was transmitted to humans nearly one century ago. The virus has since evolved to form distinct clades, which spread to different regions of the world. The envelope glycoproteins (Envs) of HIV-1 have rapidly diversified in all infected populations. We examined whether key antigenic sites of Env and signatures of vaccine efficacy are evolving toward similar or distinct structural forms in different populations worldwide. Patterns of amino acid variants that emerged at each position of Env were compared between diverse HIV-1 clades and isolates from different geographic regions. Interestingly, at each Env position, the amino acid in the clade ancestral or regional-founder virus was replaced by a unique frequency distribution (FD) of amino acids. FDs are highly conserved in populations from different regions worldwide and in paraphyletic and monophyletic subclade groups. Remarkably, founder effects of Env mutations at the clade and regional levels have gradually decreased during the pandemic by evolution of each site toward the unique combination of variants. Therefore, HIV-1 Env is evolving at a population level toward well-defined "target" states; these states are not specific amino acids but rather specific distributions of amino acid frequencies. Our findings reveal the powerful nature of the forces that guide evolution of Env and their conservation across different populations. Such forces have caused a gradual decrease in the interpopulation diversity of Env despite an increasing intrapopulation diversity.IMPORTANCE The Env protein of HIV-1 is the primary target in AIDS vaccine design. Frequent mutations in the virus increase the number of Env forms in each population, limiting the efficacy of AIDS vaccines. Comparison of newly emerging forms in different populations showed that each position of Env is evolving toward a specific combination of amino acids. Similar changes are occurring in different HIV-1 subtypes and geographic regions toward the same position-specific combinations of amino acids, often from distinct ancestral sequences. The predictable nature of HIV-1 Env evolution, as shown here, provides a new framework for designing vaccines that are tailored to the unique combination of variants expected to emerge in each virus subtype and geographic region.

The HIV-1 Env gp120 Inner Domain Shapes the Phe43 Cavity and the CD4 Binding Site.

The HIV-1 envelope glycoproteins (Env) undergo conformational changes upon interaction of the gp120 exterior glycoprotein with the CD4 receptor. The gp120 inner domain topological layers facilitate the transition of Env to the CD4-bound conformation. CD4 engages gp120 by introducing its phenylalanine 43 (Phe43) in a cavity ("the Phe43 cavity") located at the interface between the inner and outer gp120 domains. Small CD4-mimetic compounds (CD4mc) can bind within the Phe43 cavity and trigger conformational changes similar to those induced by CD4. Crystal structures of CD4mc in complex with a modified CRF01_AE gp120 core revealed the importance of these gp120 inner domain layers in stabilizing the Phe43 cavity and shaping the CD4 binding site. Our studies reveal a complex interplay between the gp120 inner domain and the Phe43 cavity and generate useful information for the development of more-potent CD4mc.IMPORTANCE The Phe43 cavity of HIV-1 envelope glycoproteins (Env) is an attractive druggable target. New promising compounds, including small CD4 mimetics (CD4mc), were shown to insert deeply into this cavity. Here, we identify a new network of residues that helps to shape this highly conserved CD4 binding pocket and characterize the structural determinants responsible for Env sensitivity to small CD4 mimetics.