Mapping the Evolutionary Space of SARS-CoV-2 Variants to Anticipate Emergence of Subvariants Resistant to COVID-19 Therapeutics.

New sublineages of SARS-CoV-2 variants-of-concern (VOCs) continuously emerge with mutations in the spike glycoprotein. In most cases, the sublineage-defining mutations vary between the VOCs. It is unclear whether these differences reflect lineage-specific likelihoods for mutations at each spike position or the stochastic nature of their appearance. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 lineages have distinct evolutionary spaces (a probabilistic definition of the sequence states that can be occupied by expanding virus subpopulations). This space can be accurately inferred from the patterns of amino acid variability at the whole-protein level. Robust networks of co-variable sites identify the highest-likelihood mutations in new VOC sublineages and predict remarkably well the emergence of subvariants with resistance mutations to COVID-19 therapeutics. Our studies reveal the contribution of low frequency variant patterns at heterologous sites across the protein to accurate prediction of the changes at each position of interest.

TFAP2 paralogs facilitate chromatin access for MITF at pigmentation and cell proliferation genes.

In developing melanocytes and in melanoma cells, multiple paralogs of the Activating-enhancer-binding Protein 2 family of transcription factors (TFAP2) contribute to expression of genes encoding pigmentation regulators, but their interaction with Microphthalmia transcription factor (MITF), a master regulator of these cells, is unclear. Supporting the model that TFAP2 facilitates MITF's ability to activate expression of pigmentation genes, single-cell seq analysis of zebrafish embryos revealed that pigmentation genes are only expressed in the subset of mitfa-expressing cells that also express tfap2 paralogs. To test this model in SK-MEL-28 melanoma cells we deleted the two TFAP2 paralogs with highest expression, TFAP2A and TFAP2C, creating TFAP2 knockout (TFAP2-KO) cells. We then assessed gene expression, chromatin accessibility, binding of TFAP2A and of MITF, and the chromatin marks H3K27Ac and H3K27Me3 which are characteristic of active enhancers and silenced chromatin, respectively. Integrated analyses of these datasets indicate TFAP2 paralogs directly activate enhancers near genes enriched for roles in pigmentation and proliferation, and directly repress enhancers near genes enriched for roles in cell adhesion. Consistently, compared to WT cells, TFAP2-KO cells proliferate less and adhere to one another more. TFAP2 paralogs and MITF co-operatively activate a subset of enhancers, with the former necessary for MITF binding and chromatin accessibility. By contrast, TFAP2 paralogs and MITF do not appear to co-operatively inhibit enhancers. These studies reveal a mechanism by which TFAP2 profoundly influences the set of genes activated by MITF, and thereby the phenotype of pigment cells and melanoma cells.

Analysis of zebrafish periderm enhancers facilitates identification of a regulatory variant near human KRT8/18.

Genome-wide association studies for non-syndromic orofacial clefting (OFC) have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at loci where the presumed risk-relevant gene is expressed in oral periderm. The functional subsets of such SNPs are difficult to predict because the sequence underpinnings of periderm enhancers are unknown. We applied ATAC-seq to models of human palate periderm, including zebrafish periderm, mouse embryonic palate epithelia, and a human oral epithelium cell line, and to complementary mesenchymal cell types. We identified sets of enhancers specific to the epithelial cells and trained gapped-kmer support-vector-machine classifiers on these sets. We used the classifiers to predict the effects of 14 OFC-associated SNPs at 12q13 near KRT18. All the classifiers picked the same SNP as having the strongest effect, but the significance was highest with the classifier trained on zebrafish periderm. Reporter and deletion analyses support this SNP as lying within a periderm enhancer regulating KRT18/KRT8 expression.