Descriptive epidemiology and spatial analysis of African swine fever epidemics in Can Tho, Vietnam, 2019.

The objectives of this study were to describe the epidemiology of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify factors that increased commune-level risk for ASF in Can Tho, a province in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam. In 2019, a total of 2377 of the 5220 pig farms in Can Tho were ASF positive, an incidence risk of 46 (95% CI 44-47) ASF positive farms for every 100 farms at risk. Throughout the outbreak ASF resulted in either the death or culling of 59,529 pigs out of a total population size of 124,516 (just under half of the total pig population, 48%). After the first detection in Can Tho in May 2019, ASF spread quickly across all districts with an estimated dissemination ratio (EDR) of greater than one up until the end of July 2019. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was developed to identify risk factors for ASF. One hundred unit increases in the number of pigs per square kilometre was associated with a 1.28 (95% CrI 1.05-1.55) fold increase in commune-level ASF incidence rate. One unit increases in the number of pig farms per square kilometre was associated with a 0.91 (95% CrI 0.84-0.99) decrease in commune-level ASF incidence rate. Mapping spatially contiguous communes with elevated (unaccounted-for) ASF risk provide a means for generating hypotheses for continued disease transmission. We propose that the analyses described in this paper might be run on an ongoing basis during an outbreak and disease control efforts modified in light of the information provided.

First Report of a Complete Genome Sequence of a Variant African Swine Fever Virus in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

The objective of this study is to report the complete-genome sequence of a field African swine fever (ASF) virus (ASFV), namely ASF/VN/CanTho-OM/2021, which caused a fatal outbreak in domestic pigs in the Mekong Delta. Complete-genome sequencing detected an 18 bp nucleotide deletion in the EP402R gene (encoding for serotype-specific proteins CD2v) of ASF/VN/CanTho-OM/2021, which was determined to belong to genotype 2 and serotype 8. This mutation pattern was confirmed as unique in GenBank; thus, ASF/VN/CanTho-OM/2021 can be considered a novel variant, with a potential change of sero-characteristics within genotype 2. An additional unique mutation of 78 bp nucleotide insertion was also observed in the B475L gene. Additionally, four copies of tandem repeat sequences were found in the intergenic region (IGR) located between I73R and I329L, previously assigned as the IGR III variant. This study is the first to report the complete genome of ASFV in the Mekong Delta, and it highlights the necessity of strengthening molecular surveillance to provide further knowledge on the evolution and incursion of ASFV in the Mekong Delta and Vietnam.