Evaluation of National Event-Based Surveillance, Nigeria, 2016-2018.

Nigeria Centres for Disease Control and Prevention established an event-based surveillance (EBS) system in 2016 to supplement traditional surveillance structures. The EBS system is comprised of an internet-based data mining tool and a call center. To evaluate the EBS system for usefulness, simplicity, acceptability, timeliness, and data quality, we performed a descriptive analysis of signals received during September 2017-June 2018. We used questionnaires, semistructured interviews, and direct observation to collect information from EBS staff. Amongst 43,631 raw signals detected, 138 (0.3%) were escalated; 63 (46%) of those were verified as events, including 25 Lassa fever outbreaks and 13 cholera outbreaks. Interviewees provided multiple examples of earlier outbreak detections but suggested notifications and logging could be improved to ensure action. EBS proved effective in detecting outbreaks, but we noted clear opportunities for efficiency gains. We recommend improving signal logging, standardizing processes, and revising outputs to ensure appropriate public health action.

National and subnational governance and decision-making processes during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: an empirical analysis.

Governance of the COVID-19 pandemic required decision-makers to make and implement decisions amidst uncertainty, public pressure and time constraints. However, few studies have attempted to assess these decision-making processes empirically during health emergencies. Thus, we aimed to understand governance, defined as the process of decision-making and implementation of decisions, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. We conducted key informant interviews and focus group discussions with national and subnational government officials, civil society organisation (CSO) members, development partners and academic experts. Our study identified several themes on governance and decision-making processes. First, Nigeria established high-level decision-making structures at the federal and state levels, providing clear and integrated multisectoral decision-making mechanism. However, due to the emergence of conflicts between government levels, there is a need to strengthen intergovernmental arrangements. Second, while decision-makers relied on input from academic experts and CSOs, additional efforts are required to engage such stakeholders in decision-making processes, especially during the early stages of health emergencies. Third, Nigeria's previous experiences responding to disease outbreaks aided the overall response, as many capacities and coordination mechanisms for cohesive action were present. Fourth, while decision-makers took a holistic view of scientific, social and economic factors for decision-making, this process was also adaptive to account for rapidly evolving information. Lastly, more efforts are needed to ensure decisions are inclusive, equitable and transparent, and improve overall public trust in governance processes. This study provides insights and identifies opportunities to enhance governance and decision-making processes in health emergency responses, aiding future pandemic preparedness efforts.

Epidemiology, diagnostics and factors associated with mortality during a cholera epidemic in Nigeria, October 2020-October 2021: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data.

OBJECTIVES: Nigeria reported an upsurge in cholera cases in October 2020, which then transitioned into a large, disseminated epidemic for most of 2021. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology, diagnostic performance of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits and the factors associated with mortality during the epidemic. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of national surveillance data. SETTING: 33 of 37 states (including the Federal Capital Territory) in Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Persons who met cholera case definition (a person of any age with acute watery diarrhoea, with or without vomiting) between October 2020 and October 2021 within the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control surveillance data. OUTCOME MEASURES: Attack rate (AR; per 100 000 persons), case fatality rate (CFR; %) and accuracy of RDT performance compared with culture using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, individual factors associated with cholera deaths and hospitalisation were presented as adjusted OR with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, 93 598 cholera cases and 3298 deaths (CFR: 3.5%) were reported across 33 of 37 states in Nigeria within the study period. The proportions of cholera cases were higher in men aged 5-14 years and women aged 25-44 years. The overall AR was 46.5 per 100 000 persons. The North-West region recorded the highest AR with 102 per 100 000. Older age, male gender, residency in the North-Central region and severe dehydration significantly increased the odds of cholera deaths. The cholera RDT had excellent diagnostic accuracy (AUROC=0.91; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Cholera remains a serious public health threat in Nigeria with a high mortality rate. Thus, we recommend making RDT kits more widely accessible for improved surveillance and prompt case management across the country.