MRI texture analysis of acetabular cancellous bone can discriminate between normal, cam positive, and cam-FAI hips.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the MRI texture profile of acetabular subchondral bone in normal, asymptomatic cam positive, and symptomatic cam-FAI hips and determine the accuracy of a machine learning model for discriminating between the three hip classes. METHODS: A case-control, retrospective study was performed including 68 subjects (19 normal, 26 asymptomatic cam, 23 symptomatic cam-FAI). Acetabular subchondral bone of unilateral hip was contoured on 1.5 T MR images. Nine first-order 3D histogram and 16 s-order texture features were evaluated using specialized texture analysis software. Between-group differences were assessed using Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U tests, and differences in proportions compared using chi-square and Fisher's exact tests. Gradient-boosted ensemble methods of decision trees were created and trained to discriminate between the three groups of hips, with percent accuracy calculated. RESULTS: Sixty-eight subjects (median age 32 (28-40), 60 male) were evaluated. Significant differences among all three groups were identified with first-order (4 features, all p ≤ 0.002) and second-order (11 features, all p ≤ 0.002) texture analyses. First-order texture analysis could differentiate between control and cam positive hip groups (4 features, all p ≤ 0.002). Second-order texture analysis could additionally differentiate between asymptomatic cam and symptomatic cam-FAI groups (10 features, all p ≤ 0.02). Machine learning models demonstrated high classification accuracy of 79% (SD 16) for discriminating among all three groups. CONCLUSION: Normal, asymptomatic cam positive, and cam-FAI hips can be discriminated based on their MRI texture profile of subchondral bone using descriptive statistics and machine learning algorithms. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Texture analysis can be performed on routine MR images of the hip and used to identify early changes in bone architecture, differentiating morphologically abnormal from normal hips, prior to onset of symptoms. KEY POINTS: • MRI texture analysis is a technique for extracting quantitative data from routine MRI images. • MRI texture analysis demonstrates that there are different bone profiles between normal hips and those with femoroacetabular impingement. • Machine learning models can be used in conjunction with MRI texture analysis to accurately differentiate between normal hips and those with femoroacetabular impingement.

Collective Dynamics, Diversification and Optimal Portfolio Construction for Cryptocurrencies.

Since its conception, the cryptocurrency market has been frequently described as an immature market, characterized by significant swings in volatility and occasionally described as lacking rhyme or reason. There has been great speculation as to what role it plays in a diversified portfolio. For instance, is cryptocurrency exposure an inflationary hedge or a speculative investment that follows broad market sentiment with amplified beta? We have recently explored similar questions with a clear focus on the equity market. There, our research revealed several noteworthy dynamics such as an increase in the market's collective strength and uniformity during crises, greater diversification benefits across equity sectors (rather than within them), and the existence of a "best value" portfolio of equities. In essence, we can now contrast any potential signatures of maturity we identify in the cryptocurrency market and contrast these with the substantially larger, older and better-established equity market. This paper aims to investigate whether the cryptocurrency market has recently exhibited similar mathematical properties as the equity market. Instead of relying on traditional portfolio theory, which is grounded in the financial dynamics of equity securities, we adjust our experimental focus to capture the presumed behavioral purchasing patterns of retail cryptocurrency investors. Our focus is on collective dynamics and portfolio diversification in the cryptocurrency market, and examining whether previously established results in the equity market hold in the cryptocurrency market and to what extent. The results reveal nuanced signatures of maturity related to the equity market, including the fact that correlations collectively spike around exchange collapses, and identify an ideal portfolio size and spread across different groups of cryptocurrencies.

Dual-domain analysis of gun violence incidents in the United States.

This paper applies new and recently introduced approaches to study trends in gun violence in the United States. We use techniques in both the time and frequency domain to provide a more complete understanding of gun violence dynamics. We analyze gun violence incidents on a state-by-state basis as recorded by the Gun Violence Archive. We have numerous specific phenomena of focus, including periodicity of incidents, locations in time where behavioral changes occur, and shifts in gun violence patterns since April 2020. First, we implement a recently introduced method of spectral density estimation for nonstationary time series to investigate periodicity on a state-by-state basis, including revealing where periodic behaviors change with time. We can also classify different patterns of behavioral changes among the states. We then aim to understand the most significant shifts in gun violence since numerous key events in 2020, including the COVID-19 pandemic, lockdowns, and periods of civil unrest. Our dual-domain analysis provides a more thorough understanding and challenges numerous widely held conceptions regarding the prevalence of gun violence incidents.

In search of peak human athletic potential: A mathematical investigation.

This paper applies existing and new approaches to study trends in the performance of elite athletes over time. We study both track and field scores of men and women athletes on a yearly basis from 2001 to 2019, revealing several trends and findings. First, we perform a detailed regression study to reveal the existence of an "Olympic effect," where average performance improves during Olympic years. Next, we study the rate of change in athlete performance and fail to reject the notion that athlete scores are leveling off, at least among the top 100 annual scores. Third, we examine the relationship in performance trends among men and women's categories of the same event, revealing striking similarity, together with some anomalous events. Finally, we analyze the geographic composition of the world's top athletes, attempting to understand how the diversity by country and continent varies over time across events. We challenge a widely held conception of athletics that certain events are more geographically dominated than others. Our methods and findings could be applied more generally to identify evolutionary dynamics in group performance and highlight spatiotemporal trends in group composition.

Comparing the dynamics of COVID-19 infection and mortality in the United States, India, and Brazil.

This paper compares and contrasts the spread and impact of COVID-19 in the three countries most heavily impacted by the pandemic: the United States (US), India and Brazil. All three of these countries have a federal structure, in which the individual states have largely determined the response to the pandemic. Thus, we perform an extensive analysis of the individual states of these three countries to determine patterns of similarity within each. First, we analyse structural similarity and anomalies in the trajectories of cases and deaths as multivariate time series. Next, we study the lengths of the different waves of the virus outbreaks across the three countries and their states. Finally, we investigate suitable time offsets between cases and deaths as a function of the distinct outbreak waves. In all these analyses, we consistently reveal more characteristically distinct behaviour between US and Indian states, while Brazilian states exhibit less structure in their wave behaviour and changing progression between cases and deaths.

Collective correlations, dynamics, and behavioural inconsistencies of the cryptocurrency market over time.

This paper introduces new methods to study behaviours among the 52 largest cryptocurrencies between 01-01-2019 and 30-06-2021. First, we explore evolutionary correlation behaviours and apply a recently proposed turning point algorithm to identify regimes in market correlation. Next, we inspect the relationship between collective dynamics and the cryptocurrency market size-revealing an inverse relationship between the size of the market and the strength of collective dynamics. We then explore the time-varying consistency of the relationships between cryptocurrencies' size and their returns and volatility. There, we demonstrate that there is greater consistency between size and volatility than size and returns. Finally, we study the spread of volatility behaviours across the market changing with time by examining the structure of Wasserstein distances between probability density functions of rolling volatility. We demonstrate a new phenomenon of increased uniformity in volatility during market crashes, which we term volatility dispersion.

Effect of phase of enhancement on texture analysis in renal masses evaluated with non-contrast-enhanced, corticomedullary, and nephrographic phase-enhanced CT images.

OBJECTIVE: To compare texture analysis (TA) features of solid renal masses on renal protocol (non-contrast enhanced [NECT], corticomedullary [CM], nephrographic [NG]) CT. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 177 consecutive solid renal masses (116 renal cell carcinoma [RCC]; 51 clear cell [cc], 40 papillary, 25 chromophobe, and 61 benign masses; 49 oncocytomas, 12 fat-poor angiomyolipomas) with three-phase CT between 2012 and 2017 were studied. Two blinded radiologists independently assessed tumor heterogeneity (5-point Likert scale) and segmented tumors. TA features (N = 25) were compared between groups and between phases. Accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]) for RCC versus benign and cc-RCC versus other masses was compared. RESULTS: Subjectively, tumor heterogeneity differed between phases (p < 0.01) and between tumors within the same phase (p = 0.03 [NECT] and p < 0.01 [CM, NG]). Inter-observer agreement was moderate to substantial (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.55-0.73). TA differed in 92.0% (23/25) features between phases (p < 0.05) except for GLNU and f6. More TA features differed significantly on CM (80.0% [20/25]) compared with NG (40.0% [10/25]) and NECT (16.0% [4/25]) (p < 0.01). For RCC versus benign, AUCs of texture features did not differ comparing CM and NG (p > 0.05), but were higher for 20% (5/25) and 28% (7/25) of features comparing CM and NG with NECT (p < 0.05). For cc-RCC versus other, 36% (9/25) and 40% (10/25) features on CM had higher AUCs compared with NECT and NG images (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Texture analysis of renal masses differs, when evaluated subjectively and quantitatively, by phase of CT enhancement. The corticomedullary phase had the highest discriminatory value when comparing masses and for differentiating cc-RCC from other masses. KEY POINTS: • Subjectively evaluated renal tumor heterogeneity on CT differs by phase of enhancement. • Quantitative CT texture analysis features in renal tumors differ by phases of enhancement with the corticomedullary phase showing the highest number and most significant differences compared with non-contrast-enhanced and nephrographic phase images. • For diagnosis of clear cell RCC, corticomedullary phase texture analysis features had improved accuracy of classification in approximately 40% of features studied compared with non-contrast-enhanced and nephrographic phase images.

Efficiency of communities and financial markets during the 2020 pandemic.

This paper investigates the relationship between the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the state of community activity, and the financial index performance across 20 countries. First, we analyze which countries behaved similarly in 2020 with respect to one of three multivariate time series: daily COVID-19 cases, Apple mobility data, and national equity index price. Next, we study the trajectories of all three of these attributes in conjunction to determine which exhibited greater similarity. Finally, we investigate whether country financial indices or mobility data responded more quickly to surges in COVID-19 cases. Our results indicate that mobility data and national financial indices exhibited the most similarity in their trajectories, with financial indices responding quicker. This suggests that financial market participants may have interpreted and responded to COVID-19 data more efficiently than governments. Furthermore, results imply that efforts to study community mobility data as a leading indicator for financial market performance during the pandemic were misguided.

COVID-19 second wave mortality in Europe and the United States.

This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave and subsequent period. Next, offsets between case and death time series are learned for each country via a normalized inner product. Combining these with additional calculations, we can determine which countries have most substantially reduced the mortality rate of COVID-19. Finally, our paper identifies similarities in the trajectories of cases and deaths for European countries and U.S. states. Our analysis refines the popular conception that the mortality rate has greatly decreased throughout Europe during its second wave of COVID-19; instead, we demonstrate substantial heterogeneity throughout Europe and the U.S. The Netherlands exhibited the largest reduction of mortality, a factor of 16, followed by Denmark, France, Belgium, and other Western European countries, greater than both Eastern European countries and U.S. states. Some structural similarity is observed between Europe and the United States, in which Northeastern states have been the most successful in the country. Such analysis may help European countries learn from each other's experiences and differing successes to develop the best policies to combat COVID-19 as a collective unit.

Association between COVID-19 cases and international equity indices.

This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the populations and equity markets of 92 countries. We compare country-by-country equity market dynamics to cumulative COVID-19 case and death counts and new case trajectories. First, we examine the multivariate time series of cumulative cases and deaths, particularly regarding their changing structure over time. We reveal similarities between the case and death time series, and key dates that the structure of the time series changed. Next, we classify new case time series, demonstrate five characteristic classes of trajectories, and quantify discrepancy between them with respect to the behavior of waves of the disease. Finally, we show there is no relationship between countries' equity market performance and their success in managing COVID-19. Each country's equity index has been unresponsive to the domestic or global state of the pandemic. Instead, these indices have been highly uniform, with most movement in March.

Trends in COVID-19 prevalence and mortality: A year in review.

This paper introduces new methods to study the changing dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths among the 50 worst-affected countries throughout 2020. First, we analyse the trajectories and turning points of rolling mortality rates to understand at which times the disease was most lethal. We demonstrate five characteristic classes of mortality rate trajectories and determine structural similarity in mortality trends over time. Next, we introduce a class of virulence matrices to study the evolution of COVID-19 cases and deaths on a global scale. Finally, we introduce three-way inconsistency analysis to determine anomalous countries with respect to three attributes: countries' COVID-19 cases, deaths and human development indices. We demonstrate the most anomalous countries across these three measures are Pakistan, the United States and the United Arab Emirates.

Routinely reported ejection fraction and mortality in clinical practice: where does the nadir of risk lie?

AIMS: We investigated the relationship between clinically assessed left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and survival in a large, heterogeneous clinical cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: Physician-reported LVEF on 403 977 echocardiograms from 203 135 patients were linked to all-cause mortality using electronic health records (1998-2018) from US regional healthcare system. Cox proportional hazards regression was used for analyses while adjusting for many patient characteristics including age, sex, and relevant comorbidities. A dataset including 45 531 echocardiograms and 35 976 patients from New Zealand was used to provide independent validation of analyses. During follow-up of the US cohort, 46 258 (23%) patients who had undergone 108 578 (27%) echocardiograms died. Overall, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for mortality showed a u-shaped relationship for LVEF with a nadir of risk at an LVEF of 60-65%, a HR of 1.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64-1.77] when ≥70% and a HR of 1.73 (95% CI 1.66-1.80) at LVEF of 35-40%. Similar relationships with a nadir at 60-65% were observed in the validation dataset as well as for each age group and both sexes. The results were similar after further adjustments for conditions associated with an elevated LVEF, including mitral regurgitation, increased wall thickness, and anaemia and when restricted to patients reported to have heart failure at the time of the echocardiogram. CONCLUSION: Deviation of LVEF from 60% to 65% is associated with poorer survival regardless of age, sex, or other relevant comorbidities such as heart failure. These results may herald the recognition of a new phenotype characterized by supra-normal LVEF.

Dynamics, behaviours, and anomaly persistence in cryptocurrencies and equities surrounding COVID-19.

This paper uses new and recently introduced methodologies to study the similarity in the dynamics and behaviours of cryptocurrencies and equities surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. We study two collections; 45 cryptocurrencies and 72 equities, both independently and in conjunction. First, we examine the evolution of cryptocurrency and equity market dynamics, with a particular focus on their change during the COVID-19 pandemic. We demonstrate markedly more similar dynamics during times of crisis. Next, we apply recently introduced methods to contrast trajectories, erratic behaviours, and extreme values among the two multivariate time series. Finally, we introduce a new framework for determining the persistence of market anomalies over time. Surprisingly, we find that although cryptocurrencies exhibit stronger collective dynamics and correlation in all market conditions, equities behave more similarly in their trajectories and extremes, and show greater persistence in anomalies over time.

Changes to the extreme and erratic behaviour of cryptocurrencies during COVID-19.

This paper introduces new methods for analysing the extreme and erratic behaviour of time series to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency market dynamics. Across 51 cryptocurrencies, we examine extreme behaviour through a study of distribution extremities, and erratic behaviour through structural breaks. First, we analyse the structure of the market as a whole and observe a reduction in self-similarity as a result of COVID-19, particularly with respect to structural breaks in variance. Second, we compare and contrast these two behaviours, and identify individual anomalous cryptocurrencies. Tether (USDT) and TrueUSD (TUSD) are consistent outliers with respect to their returns, while Holo (HOT), NEXO (NEXO), Maker (MKR) and NEM (XEM) are frequently observed as anomalous with respect to both behaviours and time. Even among a market known as consistently volatile, this identifies individual cryptocurrencies that behave most irregularly in their extreme and erratic behaviour and shows these were more affected during the COVID-19 market crisis.

CT texture analysis of acetabular subchondral bone can discriminate between normal and cam-positive hips.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine if the CT texture profile of acetabular subchondral bone differs between normal, asymptomatic cam-positive, and symptomatic cam-FAI hips. In addition, the utility of texture analysis to discriminate between the three hip statuses was explored using a machine learning approach. METHODS: IRB-approved, case-control study analyzing CT images in subjects with and without cam morphology from August 2010 to December 2013. Sixty-eight subjects were included: 19 normal controls, 26 asymptomatic cam, and 23 symptomatic cam-FAI. Acetabular subchondral bone was contoured on the sagittal oblique CT images using ImageJ ®. 3D histogram texture features (mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis, and percentiles) were evaluated using MaZda software. Groupwise differences were investigated using Kruskal-Wallis tests and Mann-Whitney U tests. Gradient-boosted decision trees were created and trained to discriminate between control and cam-positive hips. RESULTS: Both asymptomatic and symptomatic cam-FAI hips demonstrated significantly higher values of texture variance (p = 0.0007, p < 0.0001), 90th percentile (p = 0.007, p = 0.006), and 99th percentile (p = 0.009, p = 0.009), but significantly lower values of skewness (p = 0.0001, p = 0.0013) and kurtosis (p = 0.0001, p = 0.0001) compared to normal controls. There were no differences in texture profile between asymptomatic cam and symptomatic cam-FAI hips. Machine learning models demonstrated high classification accuracy for discriminating control hips from asymptomatic cam-positive (82%) and symptomatic cam-FAI (86%) hips. CONCLUSIONS: Texture analysis can discriminate between normal and cam-positive hips using conventional descriptive statistics, regression modeling, and machine learning algorithms. It has the potential to become an important tool in compositional analysis of hip subchondral trabecular bone in the context of FAI, and possibly serve as a biomarker of joint degeneration. KEY POINTS: • The CT texture profile of acetabular subchondral bone is significantly different between normal and cam-positive hips. • Texture analysis can detect changes in subchondral bone in asymptomatic cam-positive hips that are equal to that of symptomatic cam-FAI hips. • Texture analysis has the potential to become an important tool in compositional analysis of hip subchondral bone in the context of FAI and may serve as a biomarker in the study of joint physiology and biomechanics.

COVID-19 in the United States: Trajectories and second surge behavior.

This paper introduces a mathematical framework for determining second surge behavior of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Within this framework, a flexible algorithmic approach selects a set of turning points for each state, computes distances between them, and determines whether each state is in (or over) a first or second surge. Then, appropriate distances between normalized time series are used to further analyze the relationships between case trajectories on a month-by-month basis. Our algorithm shows that 31 states are experiencing second surges, while four of the 10 largest states are still in their first surge, with case counts that have never decreased. This analysis can aid in highlighting the most and least successful state responses to COVID-19.

Cluster-based dual evolution for multivariate time series: Analyzing COVID-19.

This paper proposes a cluster-based method to analyze the evolution of multivariate time series and applies this to the COVID-19 pandemic. On each day, we partition countries into clusters according to both their cases and death counts. The total number of clusters and individual countries' cluster memberships are algorithmically determined. We study the change in both quantities over time, demonstrating a close similarity in the evolution of cases and deaths. The changing number of clusters of the case counts precedes that of the death counts by 32 days. On the other hand, there is an optimal offset of 16 days with respect to the greatest consistency between cluster groupings, determined by a new method of comparing affinity matrices. With this offset in mind, we identify anomalous countries in the progression from COVID-19 cases to deaths. This analysis can aid in highlighting the most and least significant public policies in minimizing a country's COVID-19 mortality rate.

Novel semi-metrics for multivariate change point analysis and anomaly detection.

This paper proposes a new method for determining similarity and anomalies between time series, most practically effective in large collections of (likely related) time series, by measuring distances between structural breaks within such a collection. We introduce a class of semi-metric distance measures, which we term MJ distances. These semi-metrics provide an advantage over existing options such as the Hausdorff and Wasserstein metrics. We prove they have desirable properties, including better sensitivity to outliers, while experiments on simulated data demonstrate that they uncover similarity within collections of time series more effectively. Semi-metrics carry a potential disadvantage: without the triangle inequality, they may not satisfy a "transitivity property of closeness." We analyse this failure with proof and introduce an computational method to investigate, in which we demonstrate that our semi-metrics violate transitivity infrequently and mildly. Finally, we apply our methods to cryptocurrency and measles data, introducing a judicious application of eigenvalue analysis.

Secondary Merkel Cell Carcinoma Arising From a Graft Donor Site.

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a highly aggressive cutaneous neuroendocrine tumour that is increasing in incidence. We report a case of a 92-year-old white man on long-term immunosuppression for temporal arteritis who presented with a Merkel cell tumour on his left cheek. A wide local excision was performed and the defect was reconstructed with a full-thickness skin graft. Four years later, the patient re-presented with a Merkel cell tumour arising from the right supraclavicular donor site. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a recurrence of MCC into a donor site. This has important implications as a reminder of planning fresh surgical instruments and needle inoculation for reconstruction if there is any clinical suspicion of MCC to prevent iatrogenic spread.