Identifying barriers for nature-based solutions in flood risk management: An interdisciplinary overview using expert community approach.

The major event that hit Europe in summer 2021 reminds society that floods are recurrent and among the costliest and deadliest natural hazards. The long-term flood risk management (FRM) efforts preferring sole technical measures to prevent and mitigate floods have shown to be not sufficiently effective and sensitive to the environment. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) mark a recent paradigm shift of FRM towards solutions that use nature-derived features, processes and management options to improve water retention and mitigate floods. Yet, the empirical evidence on the effects of NBS across various settings remains fragmented and their implementation faces a series of institutional barriers. In this paper, we adopt a community expert perspective drawing upon LAND4FLOOD Natural flood retention on private land network (https://www.land4flood.eu) in order to identify a set of barriers and their cascading and compound interactions relevant to individual NBS. The experts identified a comprehensive set of 17 barriers affecting the implementation of 12 groups of NBS in both urban and rural settings in five European regional environmental domains (i.e., Boreal, Atlantic, Continental, Alpine-Carpathian, and Mediterranean). Based on the results, we define avenues for further research, connecting hydrology and soil science, on the one hand, and land use planning, social geography and economics, on the other. Our suggestions ultimately call for a transdisciplinary turn in the research of NBS in FRM.

Meeting sustainable development challenges in growing cities: Coupled social-ecological systems modeling of land use and water changes.

Ongoing urban expansion may degrade natural resources, ecosystems, and the services they provide to human societies, e.g., through land use and water changes and feedbacks. In order to control and minimize such negative impacts of urbanization, best practices for sustainable urban development must be identified, supported, and reinforced. To accomplish this, assessment methods and tools need to consider the couplings and feedbacks between social and ecological systems, as the basis for improving the planning and management of urban development. Collaborative efforts by academics, urban planners, and other relevant actors are also essential in this context. This will require relevant methods and tools for testing and projecting scenarios of coupled social-ecological system (CSES) behavior, changes, and feedbacks, in support of sustainable development of growing cities. This paper presents a CSES modeling approach that can provide such support, by coupling socio-economically driven land use changes and associated hydrological changes. The paper exemplifies and tests the applicability of this approach for a concrete case study with relevant data availability, the Tyresån catchment in Stockholm County, Sweden. Results show that model integration in the approach can reveal impacts of urbanization on hydrological and water resource, and the implications and feedbacks for urban societies and ecosystems. The CSES approach introduces new model challenges, but holds promise for improved model support towards sustainable urban development.

Perceived Social Stigma in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis: A Study from Iran.

OBJECTIVES: Social Stigma is potentially a major problem in multiple sclerosis patients which strongly affects the quality of life. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of perceived stigma in patients with MS in a sample of Iranian population. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was performed on 305 MS patients who were referred to Iranian Multiple Sclerosis Society in 2014. The main variables were perceived stigma, age, sex, marital status, educational level, occupation, duration of the disease, type of symptoms, disability expanded status scale, family history and economic status. Social stigma was measured through a 20-item questionnaire which was developed by authors and the reliability was assessed in a pilot study. RESULTS: The frequency of perceived stigma was significantly associated with occupation, disease duration, and visibility of symptoms, level of disability and the economic condition. There were no significant relationships between perceived stigma and age, sex, marital status, level of education and family history. About 44 percent of patients preferred to hide their disease from others and 52.6 percent believed that this disease would stigmatize them in society. Nearly, half of patients preferred not to mention their disease in job interviews. CONCLUSION: Recognition of the impacts of perceived stigma on various aspects of the patients' lives are necessary to find appropriate strategies to deal with stigma and its consequences. Training programs can improve the patients' skills for coping with stigma. Furthermore, programs aimed to upgrade public knowledge and reduce the negative attitudes toward the disease should be promoted.

Natural Hazard Susceptibility Assessment for Road Planning Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis.

Inadequate infrastructural networks can be detrimental to society if transport between locations becomes hindered or delayed, especially due to natural hazards which are difficult to control. Thus determining natural hazard susceptible areas and incorporating them in the initial planning process, may reduce infrastructural damages in the long run. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgments for assessing natural hazard susceptibility through a spatial multi-criteria analysis approach using hydrological, geological, and land use factors. To utilize spatial multi-criteria analysis for decision support, an analytic hierarchy process was adopted where expert judgments were evaluated individually and in an aggregated manner. The estimates of susceptible areas were then compared with the methods weighted linear combination using equal weights and factor interaction method. Results showed that inundation received the highest susceptibility. Using expert judgment showed to perform almost the same as equal weighting where the difference in susceptibility between the two for inundation was around 4%. The results also showed that downscaling could negatively affect the susceptibility assessment and be highly misleading. Susceptibility assessment through spatial multi-criteria analysis is useful for decision support in early road planning despite its limitation to the selection and use of decision rules and criteria. A natural hazard spatial multi-criteria analysis could be used to indicate areas where more investigations need to be undertaken from a natural hazard point of view, and to identify areas thought to have higher susceptibility along existing roads where mitigation measures could be targeted after in-situ investigations.

Predicting and communicating flood risk of transport infrastructure based on watershed characteristics.

This research aims to identify and communicate water-related vulnerabilities in transport infrastructure, specifically flood risk of road/rail-stream intersections, based on watershed characteristics. This was done using flooding in Värmland and Västra Götaland, Sweden in August 2014 as case studies on which risk models are built. Three different statistical modelling approaches were considered: a partial least square regression, a binomial logistic regression, and artificial neural networks. Using the results of the different modelling approaches together in an ensemble makes it possible to cross-validate their results. To help visualize this and provide a tool for communication with stakeholders (e.g., the Swedish Transport Administration - Trafikverket), a flood 'thermometer' indicating the level of flooding risk at a given point was developed. This tool improved stakeholder interaction and helped highlight the need for better data collection in order to increase the accuracy and generalizability of modelling approaches.

A method for mapping flood hazard along roads.

A method was developed for estimating and mapping flood hazard probability along roads using road and catchment characteristics as physical catchment descriptors (PCDs). The method uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to derive candidate PCDs and then identifies those PCDs that significantly predict road flooding using a statistical modelling approach. The method thus allows flood hazards to be estimated and also provides insights into the relative roles of landscape characteristics in determining road-related flood hazards. The method was applied to an area in western Sweden where severe road flooding had occurred during an intense rain event as a case study to demonstrate its utility. The results suggest that for this case study area three categories of PCDs are useful for prediction of critical spots prone to flooding along roads: i) topography, ii) soil type, and iii) land use. The main drivers among the PCDs considered were a topographical wetness index, road density in the catchment, soil properties in the catchment (mainly the amount of gravel substrate) and local channel slope at the site of a road-stream intersection. These can be proposed as strong indicators for predicting the flood probability in ungauged river basins in this region, but some care is needed in generalising the case study results other potential factors are also likely to influence the flood hazard probability. Overall, the method proposed represents a straightforward and consistent way to estimate flooding hazards to inform both the planning of future roadways and the maintenance of existing roadways.

Dust and climate interactions in the Middle East: Spatio-temporal analysis of aerosol optical depth and climatic variables.

The Middle East (ME) is grappling with an alarming increase in dust levels, measured as aerosol optical depth (AOD), which poses significant threats to air quality, human health, and ecological stability. This study aimed to investigate correlations between climate and non-climate driving factors and AOD in the ME over the last four-decade (1980-2020), based on analysis of three variables: actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and precipitation (P). A comprehensive analysis is conducted to discern patterns and trends, with a particular focus on regions such as Rub al-Khali, Ad-Dahna, An-Nafud Desert, and southern Iraq, where consistently high dust levels were observed. 77 % of the study area is classified as arid or semi-arid based on the aridity index. Our results indicate an upward trend in dust levels in Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. We noted an increasing AET trend in regions such as the Euphrates and Tigris basin, northern-Iran, and the Nile region, along with rising PET levels in arid and semi-arid zones such as Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Conversely, P showed a notable decrease in northern-Iraq, Syria, southwestern Iran, and southern-Turkey. Comparison of long-term changes (10-year moving averages) of AOD and P showed a consistent increase in AOD with P levels decreasing in all climate regions. The Budyko space analysis indicates shifts in evaporation ratio across different climate classes from 1980 to 2020, with predominant movement patterns towards higher aridity indices in arid and semi-arid regions, while factors beyond long-term aridity changes influence shifts in evaporation ratio across various climatic zones. The Middle East experiences complex and intricate interactions between dust events and their drivers. To address this issue, a comprehensive and multi-system approach is necessary, which considers both climate and non-climate drivers. Moreover, an efficient dust control strategy should include soil and water conservation, advanced monitoring, and public awareness campaigns that involve regional and international collaboration.

Phytoremediation by trees as a nature-based solution for mitigating metal contamination in urban soils.

Trace metals in the environment are important pollutants affecting human health, particularly in urban areas worldwide. Phytoremediation as a nature-based solution (NBS) and environmentally friendly technology may decrease high concentrations of trace metals in urban soils, protecting public health (especially children) and contributing to urban sustainability. This study examined trace metal contamination of urban soils and trees in six cities in the Republic of Srpska (RS), Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and investigated the potential of selected tree species for phytoremediation as a NBS for metal-polluted urban soils. Contamination of urban soils was assessed by quantifying the concentrations of 11 trace metals (B, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, and Zn). To estimate phytoremediation potential of urban tree species, concentration and bioconcentration factor of the 11 metals were quantified in leaves of three common and abundant tree species: Aesculus hippocastanum L. (horse chestnut), Platanus acerifolia Willd. (plane), and Tilia sp. (lime). The results showed that trace metal concentrations in leaf samples did not exceed toxicity threshold guideline values. Further assessments are needed to establish the true potential of the three species as NBS for urban soils.

A shallow water numerical method for assessing impacts of hydrodynamics and nutrient transport processes on water quality values of Lake Victoria.

Lake Victoria is the world's largest tropical lake and the third-largest water body, providing significant water resources for surrounding environments including the cultural, societal, and livelihood needs of people in its basin and along the White Nile. The aim of this study was to use decade-long time series of measured lake flow in the lake system and phosphorus deposition to develop a suitable numerical model based on shallow water equations (SWE) for assessing water quality in Lake Victoria, an increasingly important tool under climate variation. Different techniques were combined to identify a numerical model that included: i) a high-resolution SWE model to establish raindrop diffusion to trace pollutants; ii) a two-dimensional (2D) vertically integrated SWE model to establish lake surface flow and vertically transported wind speed flow acting on lake surface water by wind stress; and iii) a site-specific phosphorus deposition sub-model to calculate atmospheric deposition in the lake. A smooth (non-oscillatory) solution was obtained by applying a high-resolution scheme for a raindrop diffusion model. Analysis with the vertically integrated SWE model generated depth averages for flow velocity and associated changes in water level profile in the lake system and showed unidirectional whole lake wind blowing from the southwest to northeast. The atmospheric phosphorous deposition model enabled water value assessment for mass balances with different magnitudes of both inflows and outflows demonstrating annual total phosphorus at 13,500 tons concentrating at mid-lake western and eastern parts. The model developed here is simple and suitable for use in assessing flow changes and lake level changes and can serve as a tool in studies of lake bathymetry and nutrient and pollution transport processes. Our study opens towards refining models of complex shallow-water systems.

Legacy contributions to diffuse water pollution: Data-driven multi-catchment quantification for nutrients and carbon.

Legacy pollutants are increasingly proposed as possible reasons for widespread failures to improve water quality, despite the implementation of stricter regulations and mitigation measures. This study investigates this possibility, using multi-catchment data and relatively simple, yet mechanistically-based, source distinction relationships between water discharges and chemical concentrations and loads. The relationships are tested and supported by the available catchment data. They show dominant legacy contributions for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) across catchment locations and scales, from local to country-wide around Sweden. Consistently across the study catchments, close relationships are found between the legacy concentrations of TN and TOC and the land shares of agriculture and of the sum of agriculture and forests, respectively. The legacy distinction and quantification capabilities provided by the data-driven approach of this study could guide more effective pollution mitigation and should be tested in further research for other chemicals and various sites around the world.

Water-related conflict and cooperation events worldwide: A new dataset on historical and change trends with potential drivers.

Despite strong interest and conflict research spanning multiple disciplines, connections between water flows and conflicts remain unclear, due to incomplete datasets on water-related conflict-cooperation events and poor understanding of socioeconomic and biophysical causes of such conflicts. The dataset on water-related conflict-cooperation events compiled in this study extends to 2019, updating previous datasets that covered only up to 2008, yielding important new insights on cooperation-conflict trends. Global and regional trends were analyzed using the new events dataset, together with changes in hydroclimatic variables and population density. The analysis revealed that water-related cooperation was far more common than conflicts across all regions, in both drier and wetter climates, indicating that abundance and lack of water can both promote cooperation. However, conflict events were more common in drier climates where water is scarcer. This cooperation-conflict balance shifted in the 2000s, with conflict events increasing, to outnumber cooperation events in 2017. The main shift occurred in Africa and Asia, where increased conflicts in Africa coincided with a prolonged period of below-average precipitation and severe drought, while the shift in Asia coincided with increased evapotranspiration caused by human activities and increased population density. Differences between regions were confirmed by event descriptions, with events in Africa relating to water access and farmer-herder conflicts, and events in Asia relating to irrigation and dam construction. These differences highlight the need for regional-scale analysis of water-related conflict-cooperation trends and pathways. With climate change and human activities expected to increase, the increasing trend in conflict events could persist, with water resources becoming a more frequent cause of future conflict. Identifying these complex cooperation-conflict changes is vital in determining future actions required to reduce conflict events and promote cooperation on water.

Modeling place-based nature-based solutions to promote urban carbon neutrality.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are recognized as widely available and cost-effective mechanisms for sequestering carbon and offsetting carbon emissions. Realistic NbS implementations for carbon neutrality need to be effective at the global level and also appropriate for the socio-economic and physical conditions prevailing at the local level. This paper presents a framework that can help stakeholders identify demands, locations, and types of NbS interventions that could maximize NbS benefits at the local scale. Key processes in the framework include (1) interpolating carbon emissions data at larger spatial scales to high-resolution cells, using land use and socio-economic data; (2) assessing NbS effects on carbon reduction and their location-related suitability, through qualitative literature review, and (3) spatially allocating and coupling multiple NbS interventions to land use cells. The system was tested in Stockholm, Sweden. The findings show that the urban center should be allocated with combinations of improving access to green spaces and streetscapes, while the rural and suburban areas should prioritize preserving and utilizing natural areas. Our proposed method framework can help planners better select target locations for intended risk/hazard-mitigating interventions.

Nature-based solutions to global environmental challenges.

Nature-based solutions (NBS) supply many ecosystem services key to wellbeing. There is evidence that several ecosystems that serve as NBS (e.g., forests) are being threatened by land use and climate change. Urban expansion and agriculture intensification is imposing an extensive degradation in several ecosystems, increasing human vulnerability to climate change-related events. Therefore, it is key to rethink how to develop strategies that minimize these effects. Halt ecosystem degradation and establishing NBS in areas of high human pressure (e.g., urban and agriculture) is essential to reduce environmental impacts. Numerous NBS can be helpful in agriculture (e.g., retention of crop residues/mulching) to reduce erosion or diffuse pollution or in urban areas (e.g., urban green spaces) to mitigate urban heat island effects or floods. Although these measures are important, it is crucial to raise awareness among the stakeholders, assess case by case and minimize the tradeoffs associated with the NBS application (e.g., area needed). Overall, NBS are vital in addressing present and future global environmental challenges.

Left ventricular thrombus formation in a COVID-19 patient with a complex course of pericarditis and myocardial infarction.

Our case demonstrated that thrombotic complications such as coronary thrombosis and left ventricular clot could occur even in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with nonspecific symptoms which indicates the mysterious face of COVID-19. This complex process highlights the necessity of screening patients for COVID-19 disease even with nonspecific cardiac symptoms.

Proof of evidence of changes in global terrestrial biomes using historic and recent NDVI time series.

Climate change affects plant dynamics and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. This study aims to investigate temporal changes in global vegetation coverage and biomes during the past three decades. We compared historic annual NDVI time series (1982, 1983, 1984 and 1985) with recent ones (2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018), captured from NOAA-AVHRR satellite observations. To correct the NDVI time series for missing data and outliers, we applied the Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS) algorithm. The NDVI time series were decomposed in their significant amplitude and phase given their periodic fluctuation, except for ever green vegetation. Our findings show that the average NDVI values in most biomes have increased significantly (F-value<0.01) by 0.05 ndvi units over during the past three decades, except in tundra, and deserts and xeric shrublands. The highest rates of change in the harmonic components were observed in the northern hemisphere, mainly above 30° latitude. Worldwide, the mean annual phase reduced by 9° corresponding to a 9 days shift in the beginning of the growing season. Annual phases in the recent time series reduced significantly as compared to the historic time series in the five major global biomes: by 14.1, 14.8, 10.6, 9.5, and 22.8 days in boreal forests/taiga; Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and scrubs; temperate conifer forests; temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands; and deserts, and xeric shrublands, respectively. In tropical and subtropical biomes, however, changes in the annual phase of vegetation coverage were not statistically significant. The decrease in the level of phases and acceleration of growth and changes in plant phenology indicate the increase in temperature and climate changes of the planet.

Links between food trade, climate change and food security in developed countries: A case study of Sweden.

Food security is a global concern affecting even highly developed countries. Ongoing globalisation of food systems, characterised by trading interdependencies, means that agricultural production can be disrupted by climate change, affecting food availability. This study investigated Sweden's food security by identifying major food import categories and associated trade partners (using the World Integrated Trade System database) and vulnerability to frictions in trade deriving from climate change. Vulnerability was assessed through three indicators: exposure based on diversity of sources, dominance and direct trade from supplying countries; sensitivity, assessed using the Climate Risk Index, and adaptive capacity, assessed using the Fragile State Index. The results revealed that Sweden's grain imports may be most vulnerable, and animal products least vulnerable, to climate change. Management strategies based on this preliminary assessment can be developed by integrating climate vulnerability deriving from food trading into the 'Gravity' model, to improve prediction of trade flows.

Long-term Visual and Refractive Outcomes of Argon Laser-treated Retinopathy of Prematurity.

Purpose: In this case-control study, we measured visual acuity, objective refraction, ocular biometric parameters, and strabismus in premature cases classified according to the following categories: argon laser-treated retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), untreated spontaneously regressed ROP, no ROP, and full-term controls. Methods: Cases with a history of prematurity at six years of age were categorized into the following groups: patients with a history of treated type 1 ROP using argon laser (group I), untreated spontaneously regressed ROP (group II), and no history of ROP (group III). Group IV included age-matched healthy full-term controls. Funduscopy was performed for all the cases and the control group. Results: In total, 24 eyes of 12 laser-treated ROP cases, 186 eyes of 93 spontaneously regressed ROP patients, 74 eyes of 37 premature cases with no history of ROP, and 286 eyes of 143 controls were included in the study. The mean spherical equivalent in the treated cases was not significantly different from that in the untreated cases and patients in group III. However, the average cylindrical power was significantly different among the groups (P < 0.004). Furthermore, anisometropia ( ≥ 1.5 diopters) was diagnosed with a higher rate in the treated cases (P = 0.03). The corneal curvature of the laser-treated eyes was significantly steeper and the axial length was significantly shorter than those in the other groups (P < 0.002 and P < 0.001, respectively, for multivariate analysis). Strabismus was found in three treated patients (25%). Additionally, there were three treated eyes (12.5%) diagnosed with macular dragging. Conclusion: Premature cases including those who had a history of argon laser-treated ROP and those with untreated spontaneously regressed ROP showed acceptable long-term visual and refractive outcomes along with a fairly low rate of ocular disorders.

Urbanisation-driven land degradation and socioeconomic challenges in peri-urban areas: Insights from Southern Europe.

Climate change and landscape transformation have led to rapid expansion of peri-urban areas globally, representing new 'laboratories' for the study of human-nature relationships aiming at land degradation management. This paper contributes to the debate on human-driven land degradation processes by highlighting how natural and socioeconomic forces trigger soil depletion and environmental degradation in peri-urban areas. The aim was to classify and synthesise the interactions of urbanisation-driven factors with direct or indirect, on-site or off-site, and short-term or century-scale impacts on land degradation, focussing on Southern Europe as a paradigmatic case to address this issue. Assuming complex and multifaceted interactions among influencing factors, a relevant contribution to land degradation was shown to derive from socioeconomic drivers, the most important of which were population growth and urban sprawl. Viewing peri-urban areas as socio-environmental systems adapting to intense socioeconomic transformations, these factors were identified as forming complex environmental 'syndromes' driven by urbanisation. Based on this classification, we suggested three key measures to support future land management in Southern European peri-urban areas.

Erratum: Long-term Visual and Refractive Outcomes of Argon Laser-treated Retinopathy of Prematurity.

[This corrects the article on p. 384 in vol. 17 PMCPMC9493422.].