[Ecological study of the Hungarian suicide data using complex statistical methods]. / A Magyar öngyilkossági adatok ökologiai vizsgálata complex statisztikai módszerekkel.

UNLABELLED: Problem posing:According to a number of psychiatrists, the decrease in the number of suicides can almost exclusively be ascribed to the increasing use of new antidepressants (ADs). Several ecological studies have been carried out to lend support to this claim; unfortunately, many of these started out from either methodologically or statistically flawed assumptions. The purpose of the current study is to demonstrate the examined relationships using complex time-series techniques on our national sample. METHOD: When investigating the relationships between our time series, first we ensured their stationarity using several methods. We used two methods for the analysis involving several independent variables. RESULTS: The models fitting our data showed somewhat mixed results. When using dynamic regression to ensure stationarity, the residuals of the suicide and AD time series showed a significant negative correlation. At the same time, when using the more robust technique of time series differentiation, the stationary time series showed no significant relationship between the use of antidepressants and suicide rates. Moreover, those regression models in which several independent variables were entered to control for the AD data showed no significant relationship between the variables either. A further detail is provided by the fact that according to our calculations, suicide rates are not Granger caused by the amount of antidepressants sold. However, the vagueness of ecological models is well demonstrated by the fact that even those sociological variables (number of divorces, alcohol consumption) failed to show a significant relationship with suicides here, which are usually significant in analyses using micro data.

[The effect of birthday in the fluctuation of suicides in Hungary(1970-2002)]. / A születésnap hatása az öngyilkossági számok alakulására Magyarországon (1970-2002).

Authors review the literature related to the suicide and the victims' birthday, but they have not found study, which have shown a strong connection. They investigated a large Hungarian sample using the well-known methods, but they have applied also a new one supposing they will found some connection. All the three methods have shown a strong relationship between the date of birthday and the date of suicide among man in all age-groups: namely, much more man committed suicide on his birthday than on other days of the year. Only a slight significant connection they found among the female aged 60 and more. Authors did search the conceivable causes (sociologic, cultural etc.) but they have not found any explanation. The cause is presumably is the special sensibility of the Hungarian man.

Moon/sun - suicide.

INTRODUCTION: Findings concerning the effects of moon phases and sun activity on suicide are mixed in the international literature. AIM: Our aim was to examine the hypothesised effects according to gender and age on Hungarian data covering more than 30 years. METHODS: Time series ARIMA models and dynamic regression models were applied in our analysis. RESULTS: Among women aged 20-49 years, a significant increase in the risk of suicide has been observed during proton solar events. At the same time, among women aged 50-59 years a slight but significant decrease has been identified in the risk of suicide during magnetic storms and full moons. CONCLUSION: Proton solar events, geomagnetic storms and moon phases caused changes in the risk of suicide in certain age groups in the case of women only.

Effects of Parliamentary Elections on Suicide Rates in Hungary.

Background: Phillips and Feldman reported a decline in suicides leading up to the American presidential elections, but Wasserman argued that elections had no impact on suicide. Aims: The present study explored the impact of elections on suicides in Hungary. Method: The study examined changes in the number of suicides in Hungary during the period 1990-2010 on the days of parliamentary elections, and in the weeks and months surrounding the elections. Results: There was no significant impact from the elections on the number of suicides. Conclusion: The data from Hungary replicated the results of Wasserman rather than those of Phillips and Feldman.