A quantitative assessment of renal function utilizing albuminuria in pediatric heart transplant recipients.

INTRODUCTION: Kidney disease is common after pediatric heart transplantation. Serum creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate is the most frequently reported measure of kidney function. Albuminuria is an additional marker of kidney dysfunction and is not well described in this population. In this study, we evaluate the prevalence and degree of albuminuria and describe clinical factors associated with albuminuria in a cohort of pediatric heart transplant recipients. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of pediatric heart transplant recipients. Albuminuria was assessed using spot urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio collected at the most recent annual screening cardiac catheterization through August 2019. RESULTS: In 115 patients at a median duration of 10.2 years post-transplant, 39% had albuminuria. Stage 3 or greater chronic kidney disease was present in 6%. The immunosuppressive regimen at the time of measurement contained a calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) in 88% and a proliferation signal inhibitor (PSI) in 62%. In multivariable modeling, lower eGFR, PSI use, and younger age at transplant were associated with higher levels of albuminuria, whereas CNI use was associated with lower levels of albuminuria. CONCLUSION: Albuminuria is a prevalent finding in medium-term follow up of pediatric heart transplant recipients, reflecting kidney injury, and is associated with other markers of kidney dysfunction, such as low eGFR. Younger age at transplant, lower eGFR, and PSI use were among the associations with albuminuria.

Apixaban to Prevent Recurrence After Cryptogenic Stroke in Patients With Atrial Cardiopathy: The ARCADIA Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Atrial cardiopathy is associated with stroke in the absence of clinically apparent atrial fibrillation. It is unknown whether anticoagulation, which has proven benefit in atrial fibrillation, prevents stroke in patients with atrial cardiopathy and no atrial fibrillation. Objective: To compare anticoagulation vs antiplatelet therapy for secondary stroke prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, double-blind, phase 3 randomized clinical trial of 1015 participants with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy, defined as P-wave terminal force greater than 5000 µV × ms in electrocardiogram lead V1, serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level greater than 250 pg/mL, or left atrial diameter index of 3 cm/m2 or greater on echocardiogram. Participants had no evidence of atrial fibrillation at the time of randomization. Enrollment and follow-up occurred from February 1, 2018, through February 28, 2023, at 185 sites in the National Institutes of Health StrokeNet and the Canadian Stroke Consortium. Interventions: Apixaban, 5 mg or 2.5 mg, twice daily (n = 507) vs aspirin, 81 mg, once daily (n = 508). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary efficacy outcome in a time-to-event analysis was recurrent stroke. All participants, including those diagnosed with atrial fibrillation after randomization, were analyzed according to the groups to which they were randomized. The primary safety outcomes were symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and other major hemorrhage. Results: With 1015 of the target 1100 participants enrolled and mean follow-up of 1.8 years, the trial was stopped for futility after a planned interim analysis. The mean (SD) age of participants was 68.0 (11.0) years, 54.3% were female, and 87.5% completed the full duration of follow-up. Recurrent stroke occurred in 40 patients in the apixaban group (annualized rate, 4.4%) and 40 patients in the aspirin group (annualized rate, 4.4%) (hazard ratio, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.64-1.55]). Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 0 patients taking apixaban and 7 patients taking aspirin (annualized rate, 1.1%). Other major hemorrhages occurred in 5 patients taking apixaban (annualized rate, 0.7%) and 5 patients taking aspirin (annualized rate, 0.8%) (hazard ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.29-3.52]). Conclusions and Relevance: In patients with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy without atrial fibrillation, apixaban did not significantly reduce recurrent stroke risk compared with aspirin. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03192215.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: The MESA Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in population health, marked racial and ethnic disparities in longevity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist. This study aimed to describe risks for all-cause and CVD mortality by race and ethnicity, before and after accounting for socioeconomic status (SES) and other factors, in the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). METHODS: MESA recruited 6814 US adults, 45 to 84 years of age, free of clinical CVD at baseline, including Black, White, Hispanic, and Chinese individuals (2000-2002). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-updated covariates, we evaluated the association of self-reported race and ethnicity with all-cause and adjudicated CVD mortality, with progressive adjustments for age and sex, SES (neighborhood SES, income, education, and health insurance), lifestyle and psychosocial risk factors, clinical risk factors, and immigration history. RESULTS: During a median of 15.8 years of follow-up, 22.8% of participants (n=1552) died, of which 5.3% (n=364) died of CVD. After adjusting for age and sex, Black participants had a 34% higher mortality hazard (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]), Chinese participants had a 21% lower mortality hazard (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95]), and there was no mortality difference in Hispanic participants (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.86-1.14]) compared with White participants. After adjusting for SES, the mortality HR for Black participants compared with White participants was reduced (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.34]) but still statistically significant. With adjustment for SES, the mortality hazards for Chinese and Hispanic participants also decreased in comparison with White participants. After further adjustment for additional risk factors and immigration history, Hispanic participants (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]) had a lower mortality risk than White participants, and hazard ratios for Black participants (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.92-1.26]) and Chinese participants (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60-1.08]) were not significantly different from those of White participants. Similar trends were seen for CVD mortality, although the age- and sex-adjusted HR for CVD mortality for Black participants compared with White participants was greater than all-cause mortality (HR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.34-2.21] compared with HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight persistent racial and ethnic differences in overall and CVD mortality, largely attributable to social determinants of health, and support the need to identify and act on systemic factors that shape differences in health across racial and ethnic groups.

Mycophenolic acid therapeutic drug monitoring using area under the curve in pediatric heart transplant recipients.

INTRODUCTION: Pharmacokinetics of mycophenolic acid (MPA) display substantial interpatient variability, with up to 10-fold difference of exposure in individual patients under a fixed-dose regimen. MPA trough level (C0) monitoring is common in clinical practice but has not proven sufficiently informative in predicting MPA exposure or patient outcomes, especially in children. No limited sampling strategies (LSSs) have been generated from pediatric heart transplant (HTx) recipients to estimate MPA AUC. METHODS: Single-center, observational analysis of 135 de novo pediatric HTx recipients ≤21 years old who underwent MPA AUC between 2011 and 2021. RESULTS: Median age was 4 years (IQR .6-12.1). Median time from transplant to MPA AUC sampling was 15 days (IQR 11-19). MMF doses (mg or mg/day) had low, negative Pearson correlation coefficients (r) while doses adjusted for weight or body surface area had low correlation with Trapezoidal MPA AUC0-24 h (r = .3 and .383, respectively). MPA C0 had weak association (r = .451) with Trapezoidal MPA AUC0-24 h . LSS with two pharmacokinetic sampling time points at 90 (C3 ) and 360 (C5 ) min after MMF administration (estimated AUC0-24 h  = 32.82 + 4.12 × C3  + 11.53 × C5 ) showed strong correlation with Trapezoidal MPA AUC0-24 h (r = .87). CONCLUSION: MMF at fixed or weight-adjusted doses, as well as MPA trough levels, correlate poorly with MPA AUC0-24 h . We developed novel LSSs to estimate Trapezoidal MPA AUC from a large cohort of pediatric HTx recipients. Validation of our LSSs should be completed in a separate cohort of pediatric HTx recipients.

Nonclassical Monocytes (CD14dimCD16+) Are Associated With Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Progression for Men but Not Women: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis-Brief Report.

[Figure: see text].

Association Between Cytomegalovirus Serostatus, Antiviral Therapy, and Allograft Survival in Pediatric Heart Transplantation.

Background: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is an important complication of heart transplantation and has been associated with graft loss in adults. The data in pediatric transplantation, however, is limited and conflicting. We conducted a large-scale cohort study to better characterize the relationship between CMV serostatus, CMV antiviral use, and graft survival in pediatric heart transplantation. Methods: 4,968 pediatric recipients of solitary heart transplants from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients were stratified into three groups based on donor or recipient seropositivity and antiviral use: CMV seronegative (CMV-) transplants, CMV seropositive (CMV+) transplants without antiviral therapy, and CMV+ transplants with antiviral therapy. The primary endpoint was retransplantation or death. Results: CMV+ transplants without antiviral therapy experienced worse graft survival than CMV+ transplants with antiviral therapy (10-year: 57 vs 65%). CMV+ transplants with antiviral therapy experienced similar survival as CMV- transplants. Compared to CMV seronegativity, CMV seropositivity without antiviral therapy had a hazard ratio of 1.21 (1.07-1.37 95% CI, p-value = .003). Amongst CMV+ transplants, antiviral therapy had a hazard ratio of .82 (0.74-.92 95% CI, p-value < .001). During the first year after transplantation, these hazard ratios were 1.32 (1.06-1.64 95% CI, p-value .014) and .59 (.48-.73 95% CI, p-value < .001), respectively. Conclusions: CMV seropositivity is associated with an increased risk of graft loss in pediatric heart transplant recipients, which occurs early after transplantation and may be mitigated by antiviral therapy.

Estimating filling pressures in paediatric heart transplant recipients using echocardiographic parameters and B-type natriuretic peptide.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal evaluation of allograft diastolic function in paediatric heart transplant recipients is important for early detection of acute rejection, cardiac allograft vasculopathy, and graft dysfunction. Mean diastolic right atrial and pulmonary capillary wedge pressures obtained at catheterisation are the reference standards for assessment. Echocardiography is non-invasive and more suitable for serial surveillance, but individual parameters have lacked accuracy. This study aimed to identify covariates of post-transplant mean right atrial and pulmonary capillary wedge pressures, including B-type natriuretic peptide and certain echocardiographic parameters. METHODS: A retrospective review of 143 scheduled cardiac catheterisations and echocardiograms from 56 paediatric recipients transplanted from 2007 to 2011 was performed. Samples with rejection were excluded. Univariate and multivariate linear regression models using backward selection were applied to a database consisting of B-type natriuretic peptide, haemodynamic, and echocardiographic data. RESULTS: Ln B-type natriuretic peptide, heart rate z-score, left ventricular end-diastolic dimension z-score, mitral E/e', and percent interventricular septal thickening in systole were independently associated with mean right atrial pressure. Ln B-type natriuretic peptide, heart rate z-score, left ventricular end-diastolic dimension z-score, left ventricular mass (observed/predicted), and mitral E/e' were independently associated with mean pulmonary capillary wedge pressure. Covariates of B-type natriuretic peptide included mean pulmonary artery and pulmonary capillary wedge pressures, height, haemoglobin, fractional shortening, percent interventricular septal thickening in systole, and pulmonary vascular resistance index. CONCLUSIONS: B-type natriuretic peptide and echocardiographic indices of diastolic function were independently related to post-transplant mean right atrial and pulmonary capillary wedge pressures in paediatric heart transplant recipients without rejection.

Associations of Angiopoietins With Heart Failure Incidence and Severity.

BACKGROUND: Angiopoietin-1 and 2 (Ang1, Ang2) are important mediators of angiogenesis. Angiopoietin levels are perturbed in cardiovascular disease, but it is unclear whether angiopoietin signaling is causative, an adaptive response, or merely epiphenomenon of disease activity. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a cohort free of cardiovascular disease at baseline (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]), relationships between angiopoietins, cardiac morphology, and subsequent incidence of heart failure or cardiovascular death were evaluated. In cohorts with pulmonary arterial hypertension or left heart disease, associations between angiopoietins, invasive hemodynamics, and adverse clinical outcomes were evaluated. In MESA, Ang2 was associated with a higher incidence of heart failure or cardiovascular death (hazard ratio 1.21 per standard deviation, P < .001). Ang2 was associated with increased right atrial pressure (pulmonary arterial hypertension cohort) and increased wedge pressure and right atrial pressure (left heart disease cohort). Elevated Ang2 was associated with mortality in the pulmonary arterial hypertension cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Ang2 was associated with incident heart failure or death among adults without cardiovascular disease at baseline and with disease severity in individuals with existing heart failure. Our finding that Ang2 is increased before disease onset and that elevations reflect disease severity, suggests Ang2 may contribute to heart failure pathogenesis.

Association of Dysanapsis With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Among Older Adults.

Importance: Smoking is a major risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), yet much of COPD risk remains unexplained. Objective: To determine whether dysanapsis, a mismatch of airway tree caliber to lung size, assessed by computed tomography (CT), is associated with incident COPD among older adults and lung function decline in COPD. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study of 2 community-based samples: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Lung Study, which involved 2531 participants (6 US sites, 2010-2018) and the Canadian Cohort of Obstructive Lung Disease (CanCOLD), which involved 1272 participants (9 Canadian sites, 2010-2018), and a case-control study of COPD: the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS), which involved 2726 participants (12 US sites, 2011-2016). Exposures: Dysanapsis was quantified on CT as the geometric mean of airway lumen diameters measured at 19 standard anatomic locations divided by the cube root of lung volume (airway to lung ratio). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was COPD defined by postbronchodilator ratio of forced expired volume in the first second to vital capacity (FEV1:FVC) less than 0.70 with respiratory symptoms. Secondary outcome was longitudinal lung function. All analyses were adjusted for demographics and standard COPD risk factors (primary and secondhand tobacco smoke exposures, occupational and environmental pollutants, and asthma). Results: In the MESA Lung sample (mean [SD] age, 69 years [9 years]; 1334 women [52.7%]), 237 of 2531 participants (9.4%) had prevalent COPD, the mean (SD) airway to lung ratio was 0.033 (0.004), and the mean (SD) FEV1 decline was -33 mL/y (31 mL/y). Of 2294 MESA Lung participants without prevalent COPD, 98 (4.3%) had incident COPD at a median of 6.2 years. Compared with participants in the highest quartile of airway to lung ratio, those in the lowest had a significantly higher COPD incidence (9.8 vs 1.2 cases per 1000 person-years; rate ratio [RR], 8.12; 95% CI, 3.81 to 17.27; rate difference, 8.6 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 7.1 to 9.2; P < .001) but no significant difference in FEV1 decline (-31 vs -33 mL/y; difference, 2 mL/y; 95% CI, -2 to 5; P = .30). Among CanCOLD participants (mean [SD] age, 67 years [10 years]; 564 women [44.3%]), 113 of 752 (15.0%) had incident COPD at a median of 3.1 years and the mean (SD) FEV1 decline was -36 mL/y (75 mL/y). The COPD incidence in the lowest airway to lung quartile was significantly higher than in the highest quartile (80.6 vs 24.2 cases per 1000 person-years; RR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.89 to 5.85; rate difference, 56.4 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 38.0 to 66.8; P<.001), but the FEV1 decline did not differ significantly (-34 vs -36 mL/y; difference, 1 mL/y; 95% CI, -15 to 16; P=.97). Among 1206 SPIROMICS participants (mean [SD] age, 65 years [8 years]; 542 women [44.9%]) with COPD who were followed up for a median 2.1 years, those in the lowest airway to lung ratio quartile had a mean FEV1 decline of -37 mL/y (15 mL/y), which did not differ significantly from the decline in MESA Lung participants (P = .98), whereas those in highest quartile had significantly faster decline than participants in MESA Lung (-55 mL/y [16 mL/y ]; difference, -17 mL/y; 95% CI, -32 to -3; P = .004). Conclusions and Relevance: Among older adults, dysanapsis was significantly associated with COPD, with lower airway tree caliber relative to lung size associated with greater COPD risk. Dysanapsis appears to be a risk factor associated with COPD.

Atrial Cardiopathy and the Risk of Ischemic Stroke in the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study).

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Emerging evidence suggests that an underlying atrial cardiopathy may result in thromboembolism before atrial fibrillation (AF) develops. We examined the association between various markers of atrial cardiopathy and the risk of ischemic stroke. METHODS: The CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) prospectively enrolled community-dwelling adults ≥65 years of age. For this study, we excluded participants diagnosed with stroke or AF before baseline. Exposures were several markers of atrial cardiopathy: baseline P-wave terminal force in ECG lead V1, left atrial dimension on echocardiogram, and N terminal pro B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), as well as incident AF. Incident AF was ascertained from 12-lead electrocardiograms at annual study visits for the first decade after study enrollment and from inpatient and outpatient Medicare data throughout follow-up. The primary outcome was incident ischemic stroke. We used Cox proportional hazards models that included all 4 atrial cardiopathy markers along with adjustment for demographic characteristics and established vascular risk factors. RESULTS: Among 3723 participants who were free of stroke and AF at baseline and who had data on all atrial cardiopathy markers, 585 participants (15.7%) experienced an incident ischemic stroke during a median 12.9 years of follow-up. When all atrial cardiopathy markers were combined in 1 Cox model, we found significant associations with stroke for P-wave terminal force in ECG lead V1 (hazard ratio per 1000 µV*ms 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.001-1.08), log-transformed NT-proBNP (hazard ratio per doubling of NT-proBNP, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.16), and incident AF (hazard ratio, 2.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.67-2.48) but not left atrial dimension (hazard ratio per cm, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.10). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to clinically apparent AF, other evidence of abnormal atrial substrate is associated with subsequent ischemic stroke. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that thromboembolism from the left atrium may occur in the setting of several different manifestations of atrial disease.

Yield and consistency of arrhythmia detection with patch electrocardiographic monitoring: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Patch electrocardiographic (ECG) monitors permit extended noninvasive ambulatory monitoring. To guide use of these devices, information is needed about their performance. We sought to determine in a large general population sample the acceptability of patch ECG monitors, the yield of arrhythmia detection, and the consistency of findings in participants monitored twice. METHODS: In the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, 1122 participants completed one or two monitoring episodes using the Zio Patch XT, a single-channel ECG patch monitor capable of recording for 14 days. Recordings were analyzed for atrial fibrillation (AF), atrial flutter, atrioventricular block, pauses, and supraventricular and ventricular ectopy. RESULTS: The mean(SD) age at the time of monitoring was 75(8) years, 52% were men, and 15% had a prior history of clinically-recognized AF/flutter. The median monitoring duration was 13.8 days. Among 804 participants with no prior clinical history of AF/flutter and at least 12 days of monitoring on a single device, AF/flutter was detected in 32 (4.0%); in 38% of these, AF/flutter was first detected during days 3 through 12 of monitoring. In participants monitored twice, findings from the two devices showed excellent agreement for supraventricular and ventricular ectopic beats per hour, but only fair agreement for high-grade atrioventricular block and pauses of >3 s duration. CONCLUSIONS: In a general population of older individuals, new diagnoses of AF/flutter were made in 4.0% of participants without a prior history. A single monitoring episode accurately estimated rates of supraventricular and ventricular ectopy.

Development and Implementation of a Standardized Heparin Protocol for Left-Sided Pediatric Electrophysiology Procedures.

Heparin is used to decrease the risk of thromboembolic complications during electrophysiology studies (EPS); however, there is wide practice variation and minimal evidence to guide heparin dosing, particularly in pediatric patients. This study retrospectively analyzed heparin dosing and response, measured via activated clotting time (ACT), in patients undergoing EPS and used these data (pre-protocol cohort, n = 40), as well as guidance from available literature to implement a standardized heparin protocol (phase 1, n = 43). We utilized quality improvement methodology to refine this protocol (phase 2, n = 40) to improve therapeutic heparin response. Prior to the protocol, patients achieved therapeutic ACT levels (250-350 s) only 35% of the time which improved to 60% during phase 1 (p < 0.05) and to 73% during phase 2 (p < 0.001 compared to pre-protocol). There were no thromboses or significant adverse events in any group. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of a standardized heparin protocol in achieving effective antithrombotic therapy during left-sided pediatric EPS.

Risk score overestimation: the impact of individual cardiovascular risk factors and preventive therapies on the performance of the American Heart Association-American College of Cardiology-Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease risk score in a modern multi-ethnic cohort.

AIMS: To evaluate the 2013 American Heart Association (AHA)-American College of Cardiology (ACC)-Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score among four different race/ethnic groups and to ascertain which factors are most associated with risk overestimation by the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a prospective community-based cohort, was used to examine calibration and discrimination of the AHA-ACC-ASCVD risk score in 6441 White, Black, Chinese, and Hispanic Americans (aged 45-79 years and free of known ASCVD at baseline). Using univariable and multivariable absolute risk regression, we modelled the impact of individual risk factors on the discordance between observed and predicted 10-year ASCVD risk. Overestimation was observed in all race/ethnic groups in MESA and was highest among Chinese (252% for women and 314% for men) and lowest in White women (72%) and Hispanic men (67%). Higher age, Chinese race/ethnicity (when compared with White), systolic blood pressure (treated and untreated), diabetes, alcohol use, exercise, lipid-lowering medication, and aspirin use were all associated with more risk overestimation, whereas family history was associated with less risk overestimation in a multivariable model (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The AHA-ACC-ASCVD risk score overestimates ASCVD risk among men, women, and all four race/ethnic groups evaluated in a modern American primary prevention cohort. Clinicians treating patients similar to those in MESA, particularly older individuals and those with factors associated with more risk overestimation, may consider interpreting absolute ASCVD risk estimates with caution.

Role of Coronary Artery Calcium Score of Zero and Other Negative Risk Markers for Cardiovascular Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: Limited attention has been paid to negative cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers despite their potential to improve medical decision making. We compared 13 negative risk markers using diagnostic likelihood ratios (DLRs), which model the change in risk for an individual after the result of an additional test. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined 6814 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Coronary artery calcium score of 0, carotid intima-media thickness <25th percentile, absence of carotid plaque, brachial flow-mediated dilation >5% change, ankle-brachial index >0.9 and <1.3, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein <2 mg/L, homocysteine <10 µmol/L, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide <100 pg/mL, no microalbuminuria, no family history of coronary heart disease (any/premature), absence of metabolic syndrome, and healthy lifestyle were compared for all and hard coronary heart disease and all CVD events over the 10-year follow-up. Models were adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors. Among all negative risk markers, coronary artery calcium score of 0 was the strongest, with an adjusted mean DLR of 0.41 (SD, 0.12) for all coronary heart disease and 0.54 (SD, 0.12) for CVD, followed by carotid intima-media thickness <25th percentile (DLR, 0.65 [SD, 0.04] and 0.75 [SD, 0.04], respectively). High-sensitivity C-reactive protein <2 mg/L and normal ankle-brachial index had DLRs >0.80. Among clinical features, absence of any family history of coronary heart disease was the strongest (DLRs, 0.76 [SD, 0.07] and 0.81 [SD, 0.06], respectively). Net reclassification improvement analyses yielded similar findings, with coronary artery calcium score of 0 resulting in the largest, most accurate downward risk reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Negative results of atherosclerosis-imaging tests, particularly coronary artery calcium score of 0, resulted in the greatest downward shift in estimated CVD risk. These results may help guide discussions on the identification of individuals less likely to receive net benefit from lifelong preventive pharmacotherapy.

Development and Validation of a Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction Model for the General Population.

BACKGROUND: Most sudden cardiac death (SCD) events occur in the general population among persons who do not have any prior history of clinical heart disease. We sought to develop a predictive model of SCD among US adults. METHODS: We evaluated a series of demographic, clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic measures in participants in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) (n=13 677) and the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) (n=4207) who were free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Our initial objective was to derive a SCD prediction model using the ARIC cohort and validate it in CHS. Independent risk factors for SCD were first identified in the ARIC cohort to derive a 10-year risk model of SCD. We compared the prediction of SCD with non-SCD and all-cause mortality in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Furthermore, we evaluated whether the SCD prediction equation was better at predicting SCD than the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Cardiovascular Disease Pooled Cohort risk equation. RESULTS: There were a total of 345 adjudicated SCD events in our analyses, and the 12 independent risk factors in the ARIC study included age, male sex, black race, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes mellitus, serum potassium, serum albumin, high-density lipoprotein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and QTc interval. During a 10-year follow-up period, a model combining these risk factors showed good to excellent discrimination for SCD risk (c-statistic 0.820 in ARIC and 0.745 in CHS). The SCD prediction model was slightly better in predicting SCD than the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort risk equations (c-statistic 0.808 in ARIC and 0.743 in CHS). Only the SCD prediction model, however, demonstrated similar and accurate prediction for SCD using both the original, uncalibrated score and the recalibrated equation. Finally, in the echocardiographic subcohort, a left ventricular ejection fraction <50% was present in only 1.1% of participants and did not enhance SCD prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the first to derive and validate a generalizable risk score that provides well-calibrated, absolute risk estimates across different risk strata in an adult population of white and black participants without a clinical diagnosis of cardiovascular disease.

Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: An Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis.

The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data encompassing 1962-2014) with more than 1 million measurements of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Over a median 12 years of follow-up, 21,170 CVD events occurred. Risk prediction models using cumulative mean values of repeated measurements and summary measures from longitudinal modeling of the repeated measurements were compared with models using measurements from a single time point. Risk discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification were calculated, and changes in C-indices were meta-analyzed across studies. Compared with the single-time-point model, the cumulative means and longitudinal models increased the C-index by 0.0040 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0023, 0.0057) and 0.0023 (95% CI: 0.0005, 0.0042), respectively. Reclassification was also improved in both models; compared with the single-time-point model, overall net reclassification improvements were 0.0369 (95% CI: 0.0303, 0.0436) for the cumulative-means model and 0.0177 (95% CI: 0.0110, 0.0243) for the longitudinal model. In conclusion, incorporating repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol into CVD risk prediction models slightly improves risk prediction.

Co-calibration of two self-reported measures of adherence to antiretroviral therapy.

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is an important determinant of clinical success assessed in many HIV studies. Harmonizing adherence data from studies that use different measures is difficult without a co-calibration equation to convert between validated instruments. Our purpose was to co-calibrate two commonly used adherence measures: the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) questionnaire and the Visual Analog Scale (VAS). We used robust linear regression to develop a co-calibration equation in a clinical care cohort. The outcome was the 30-day VAS percentage of ART taken and the predictors were ACTG questions. We evaluated the equation's goodness of fit in five STTR (Seek, Test, Treat, Retain) consortium studies where individuals completed both measures: 2 criminal justice; 2 international; and 1 other high-risk vulnerable population. We developed a three-phase decision rule to convert ACTG to VAS in 1045 participants. First, when the last missed dose on the ACTG was reported as >30 days ago, the VAS was set to 100% (N = 582). Second, if "doses missed" was zero for all items, VAS was 100% (N = 104). Third, among remaining participants (N = 359), VAS was estimated as 96.8% minus 2.9% times the number of missed doses ("doses per day" was non-significant). Correlation between predicted and reported VAS was r = 0.80 in the criminal justice group (N = 446), r = 0.46 in the international group (N = 311), r = 0.32 in the other vulnerable population (N = 63), and r = 0.66 overall. When outliers due to inversion of the VAS scale were excluded (n = 25), these correlations were 0.88, 0.78, 0.80, and 0.86, respectively. We concluded that a simple decision rule and equation allowed us to co-calibrate between two widely used adherence measures thus combining data from studies with different instruments. This study highlighted issues with VAS inversions and its limitations as a single item. Combining studies using different instrument facilitates larger pooled datasets to address key research questions.

Feasibility and interpretation of global longitudinal strain imaging in pediatric heart transplant recipients.

Evaluation of myocardial mechanics after heart transplant is important in monitoring allograft function and identifying rejection. Speckle tracking global longitudinal strain (GLS) may be more sensitive to early regional changes from rejection. This study aimed to determine feasibility of GLS in pediatric hearts during surveillance echocardiograms, compare their GLS to published norms (-18% to -22%), and assess association of GLS with other indices of graft function. Retrospective review of transplant echocardiograms from 2013 to 2014. Philips QLAB was used for post-acquisition GLS analysis. Multiple linear regression was used to assess the association of GLS with echocardiographic/catheterization indices, and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). Forty-seven patients (84 studies) were included. Calculation of GLS was feasible in 82 studies (97%) with inter- and intra-observer variability of 0.71 and 0.69. Patients (n=9) with rejection had GLS of -16.4% (SD=3.5%) compared to those without [-16.8% (SD=3.7%)]. GLS worsened linearly with increasing Ln(BNP) (P=<.001), left ventricular volume in diastole (P=<.001), septal a' wave (P=<.001), and pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (P=<.001). Speckle tracking-based GLS is feasible and reproducible in pediatric heart recipients and is reduced at baseline. The role of GLS and BNP in detecting early systolic dysfunction warrants further investigation.

HIV Infection and Carotid Artery Intima-media Thickness: Pooled Analyses Across 5 Cohorts of the NHLBI HIV-CVD Collaborative.

BACKGROUND: Age and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment may affect the association of HIV infection with atherosclerosis. METHODS: We used identical carotid artery B-mode ultrasonographic methods in 5 cohorts participating in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute HIV-CVD Collaborative to measure intima-media thickness of the right far wall of the common carotid artery (CCA-IMT) and carotid artery bifurcation (BIF-IMT) between 2010 and 2013. Participants aged 6-75 years were either HIV infected or uninfected. Linear regression assessed associations of CCA-IMT and BIF-IMT with HIV infection and cardiovascular disease risk factors, within age and HIV treatment groups. Adjustment variables included sex, race/ethnicity, smoking, height, weight, and use of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs. RESULTS: We studied 867 HIV-infected and 338 HIV-uninfected male and 696 HIV-infected and 246 HIV-uninfected female participants. Among both middle-aged (30-49 years) and older adults (50-75 years), HIV-infected participants had CCA-IMT and BIF-IMT values that were similar to or lower than those in HIV-uninfected participants. In contrast, among those aged 6-29 years, HIV infection was associated with higher CCA-IMT and BIF-IMT values. Among HIV-infected participants, associations of higher systolic blood pressure and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with Carotid artery intima-media thickness strengthened with age. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of HIV on carotid artery structure may differ across the lifespan, with traditional determinants of cardiovascular disease burden playing a larger role and HIV playing a lesser role in older adults than in young adults and children.

Measures of Body Size and Composition and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Older People: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

Various anthropometric measures, including height, have been associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). This raises questions about the appropriateness of using ratio measures such as body mass index (BMI), which contains height squared in its denominator, in the evaluation of AF risk. Among older adults, the optimal anthropometric approach to risk stratification of AF remains uncertain. Anthropometric and bioelectrical impedance measures were obtained from 4,276 participants (mean age = 72.4 years) free of cardiovascular disease in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up (1989-2008), 1,050 cases of AF occurred. BMI showed a U-shaped association, whereas height, weight, waist circumference, hip circumference, fat mass, and fat-free mass were linearly related to incident AF. The strongest adjusted association occurred for height (per each 1-standard-deviation increment, hazard ratio = 1.38, 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 1.51), which exceeded all other measures, including weight (hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.29). Combined assessment of log-transformed weight and height showed regression coefficients that departed from the 1 to -2 ratio inherent in BMI, indicating a loss of predictive information. Risk estimates for AF tended to be stronger for hip circumference than for waist circumference and for fat-free mass than for fat mass, which was explained largely by height. These findings highlight the prominent role of body size and the inadequacy of BMI as determinants of AF in older adults.