Neural and psychological correlates of post-traumatic stress symptoms in a community adult sample.

A multitude of factors are associated with the symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder. However, establishing which predictors are most strongly associated with post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms is complicated because few studies are able to consider multiple factors simultaneously across the biopsychosocial domains that are implicated by existing theoretical models. Further, post-traumatic stress disorder is heterogeneous, and studies using case-control designs may obscure which factors relate uniquely to symptom dimensions. Here we used Bayesian variable selection to identify the most important predictors for overall post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms and individual symptom dimensions in a community sample of 569 adults (18 to 85 yr of age). Candidate predictors were selected from previously established risk factors relevant for post-traumatic stress disorder and included psychological measures, behavioral measures, and resting state functional connectivity among brain regions. In a follow-up analysis, we compared results controlling for current depression symptoms in order to examine specificity. Poor sleep quality and dimensions of temperament and impulsivity were consistently associated with greater post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity. In addition to self-report measures, brain functional connectivity among regions commonly ascribed to the default mode network, central executive network, and salience network explained the unique variability of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms. This study demonstrates the unique contributions of psychological measures and neural substrates to post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms.

Comparing Bayesian Variable Selection to Lasso Approaches for Applications in Psychology.

In the current paper, we review existing tools for solving variable selection problems in psychology. Modern regularization methods such as lasso regression have recently been introduced in the field and are incorporated into popular methodologies, such as network analysis. However, several recognized limitations of lasso regularization may limit its suitability for psychological research. In this paper, we compare the properties of lasso approaches used for variable selection to Bayesian variable selection approaches. In particular we highlight advantages of stochastic search variable selection (SSVS), that make it well suited for variable selection applications in psychology. We demonstrate these advantages and contrast SSVS with lasso type penalization in an application to predict depression symptoms in a large sample and an accompanying simulation study. We investigate the effects of sample size, effect size, and patterns of correlation among predictors on rates of correct and false inclusion and bias in the estimates. SSVS as investigated here is reasonably computationally efficient and powerful to detect moderate effects in small sample sizes (or small effects in moderate sample sizes), while protecting against false inclusion and without over-penalizing true effects. We recommend SSVS as a flexible framework that is well-suited for the field, discuss limitations, and suggest directions for future development.